Poll: Pokhran II not fully successful - The way ahead

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 31 Aug 2009 05:47

Having gone through all the discussions on the Pokharan II forum, I am left with the most wide variety of thoughts on the subject. I think it is time we knew what Rakshaks think is the way forward.
Before you vote either ways, please note the following facts that are obviously playing across the leadership’s mind in New Delhi

1. India needs to test and refine ALL aspects of its nuclear weapons arsenal, and test the weaponized thermonuclear bombs. I say ALL aspects of the arsenal, because I feel that there was only one ‘weaponized’ FBF warhead that was tested at POK-2, the rest were all science experiments or testing of primaries or secondaries, using the different materials available to the designers. Evidently the Physics was being validated by the test series. In that sense POK-2 was more than merely a weapons test, it was more of a test series to advance Indian nuclear physics.
2. One further round of tests is unlikely to lead to India being sufficiently capable of designing to then forgo the option of any future testing. There will likely be problems that will come up in the designs due to unforeseen factors, engineering deficiencies, changes brought about by the use of different materials – all of which need validation by overt testing. The deficiencies will all have to be rectified and re-tested at a later date.
3. We are not even talking about simulating all the various conditions that a nuclear weapon will be exposed to when actually being used. That is part of evaluating a weaponized design and making it foolproof. Then there will arise the issue of stockpile management of existing weapons and of ensuring reliability even as the weapons constantly degrade over a period of time.
4. The holy grail of nuclear weapons defined thus far are the 4th gen pure fusion thermonuclear warheads. How can Indian science advance to that level in the future if even the basic thermonuclear warhead is not weaponized and perfected? This issue assumes an importance that is far greater than the mere security of the nation and the deterrence value of N-weapons as such.
5. The question of legacy. If we look at the economic status of nations of the future, say 2040 onwards, the G-3 of the world will likely be China, USA, and India. Population wise, the order might be India, China and USA. How can India aim for technology and national achievement any less than the other two members of the G-3? How can India agree to second rung status at any fora internationally?
6. To begin with, there were six nuclear weapon states. The fact that the treaties such as NPT and others include only 5 nations of the above, is an artificial and unjust definition, and smacks of arbitrariness and unfairness. India joining as an equal to the P-5 will only serve as a stabilizing influence against the reckless belligerence of china, which has proliferated to undermine the security of all challengers to its supremacy. The nations worst affected by china’s proliferation are all democracies which border it – India, Japan and South Korea.
7. China, already seems to be testing its weapons via North Korea and Pakistan and in the future, perhaps even Burma or Syria. So while china already having deployed TN weapons, is still managing to test, while India is limited to subcritical testing and computer simulations.
8. The government of India is obviously worried that breakthrough testing by India will lead to international sanctions, and bring india’s growth rate to a grinding halt. Historical evidence suggests otherwise, both in India’s case and in China’s case. China although was protected diplomatically by virtue of its security council membership, still had to attract all the business investment to be able to grow rapidly. Testing nuclear weapons does not seem to have retarded that process. After the nuclear deal, India is seen as a NWS, so the impact of further testing will not be comparable to say an Iran going nuclear.

Please vote here and restrict your opinions on the way forward for India. The general discussions on Dr Santhanan’s statement can be carried out in the Pokharan-2 thread as before.

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 31 Aug 2009 06:38

I choose 1. Only hope of making the EBs happy. Rename India to Democratic People's Republic of Yahoostan, under President Mushroom Cloud, a.k.a. "Dear Leader". Test once a month, devote 50% of the remaining GDP after all 197 nations boycott Yahoostan, to building 300KT TNs.

disha · Post by **disha** » 31 Aug 2009 06:44

narayanan wrote:I choose 1. Only hope of making the EBs happy. Rename India to Democratic People's Republic of Yahoostan, under President Mushroom Cloud, a.k.a. "Dear Leader". Test once a month, devote 50% of the remaining GDP after all 197 nations boycott Yahoostan, to building 300KT TNs.

Cannot believe I agree with you here!

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 31 Aug 2009 07:14

I vote for sign immediately and forgo all testing and let Pakistan and China give us a nuclear umbrella.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 31 Aug 2009 07:20

Errr,
I was wondering who had selected option 7.
A Biradher or a biladel.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 31 Aug 2009 08:22

Test in/on Pakistan and make every one happy, even the married ones. And pleeze keep testing there till perfection is achieved or ratio goes to 10 Muji per hoor.

BijuShet · Post by **BijuShet** » 31 Aug 2009 08:36

My vote is option 1. I want India to keep testing till we have perfected our abilty for 2nd strike. We cannot have a second strike ability of a doubtful nature i.e. we test the actual deliverable with a full payload and do it more than once. Let the last set of tests be completely handled by the armed forces coz if they ever need to use it then they do it with a full understanding of what they can acheive. Let all see what a full payload can do and this more than anything else will shut all mouths including mine.

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 31 Aug 2009 08:38

I bumped the last one to 11% by voting. We should not have BUMs in controll of BUMs , thats dangerous for neighbors.

arunsrinivasan · Post by **arunsrinivasan** » 31 Aug 2009 08:39

Point 5, is not very clear ... "Don’t test immediately, the waters have been tested internationally." did you miss a "till"? Please update the poll.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 31 Aug 2009 08:48

I feel that Dr Santhanam speaking out in this manner, there is also a possibility that GoI is testing if the water is cool enough to take a plunge. If there had been too much opprobrium from the NPA's in response to Dr Santhanam's statement, GoI would hold back.

I wonder what the rakshaks make of the international reaction to the issue being raised now.

AdityaM · Post by **AdityaM** » 31 Aug 2009 09:57

What use is this thread? This is only adding to Nuclear thread proliferation!
reminds me of countless sms polls on tv channels

BajKhedawal · Post by **BajKhedawal** » 31 Aug 2009 10:03

Whats this talk of test the waters, chip away, and what not. Just do a "Ya Aum" and go for it (obtion 1)

Edited once to claim copyright to "Ya Aum" (actually its part of patriotic poem in Gujarati, I heard when little)

I only remember this particular line which translates to "Dive in (to the battle) with a Ya Aum, for victory awaits ahead"

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 31 Aug 2009 10:16

Those two are reflective of what India seems to be doing all these years. It means that more of the same to continue in the years to come. Try and obfuscate the issue by not testing, and keeping the options open, building the economy, then testing one fine day.
Managing the sanctions, everything goes back to normal, GoI heaves a sigh of relief and basks in the glory, before some BARC scientist gently bursts the bubble with a "Saar, minor error onlee. We will need to re-test onlee.

"

Drevin · Post by **Drevin** » 31 Aug 2009 10:24

Don’t test immediately, the waters have been tested internationally.

We have to ensure the security/safety of our future generations but not at the cost of our present lives.

Gagan timely poll.

Because it lays many ghosts to rest.

tripathi · Post by **tripathi** » 31 Aug 2009 11:55

i voted1st option.coz offence is best defense.

Chinmayanand · Post by **Chinmayanand** » 31 Aug 2009 14:34

Voted for the first option ...

...test,test and keep testing ... middle finger to CTBT ...

govardhanks · Post by **govardhanks** » 31 Aug 2009 15:44

Test and test and keep it secret do not announce to world

.
But yes TN bomb is not that easy to master, even countries which posses them are not 100% sure because no TN weapon has been tested in war like conditions.

BijuShet · Post by **BijuShet** » 31 Aug 2009 19:09

govardhanks wrote:Test and test and keep it secret do not announce to world .
But yes TN bomb is not that easy to master, even countries which posses them are not 100% sure because no TN weapon has been tested in war like conditions.

Just as an FYI, we cannot test and also keep it a secret. The ground shakes from the explosion will register with all those who care about this issue. Now way around this.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 01 Sep 2009 01:22

BijuShet wrote:My vote is option 1. I want India to keep testing till we have perfected our abilty for 2nd strike. We cannot have a second strike ability of a doubtful nature i.e. we test the actual deliverable with a full payload and do it more than once. Let the last set of tests be completely handled by the armed forces coz if they ever need to use it then they do it with a full understanding of what they can acheive. Let all see what a full payload can do and this more than anything else will shut all mouths including mine.

I voted for option 1. I want to test the delivery mechanism, and deliverable in both directions. I want to make sure that earths rotation north to south doesn't impact the SDRE bum and its mijjile.

if wishes were horses...

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Sep 2009 03:59

I guess two noes are not allowed: No to test and no to shitty bitty.

Gaur · Post by **Gaur** » 01 Sep 2009 04:18

I am all for tests, but not immediately. First, let us build our economy to a state that any long term sanctions against us would be unfeasible. I don't think it would take much time for us to reach such a state. Then we can go for series of nuclear testing. Also many of our current defence development and procurement projects would be in limbo if we test now.

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 01 Sep 2009 05:09

Parijat Gaur wrote:I am all for tests, but not immediately. First, let us build our economy to a state that any long term sanctions against us would be unfeasible.

Geo-politics is also important. Think of what will happen if SDREs test now.

Scenario 1: TFTAs test. Unkil sanctions us both (we are, after all, equal==equal). GOAT dies. Afterall, TFTAs cant fight talibunnies without baksheesh.

Scenario 2: TFTAs dont test. Unkil sweetens ensures this by increasing baksheesh 400%. Can SDREs then do one of two things ? (a) Provoke them by claiming H&D lost (b) Create fissure between baksheesh vs H&D crowd.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 01 Sep 2009 05:54

^^^^^
(above)Scenario I extension: After GOAT dies, talibunnies running around and breeding like they did after Ruskies left Afghanistan. Territories that would make the talibunnies drool are:
1) Pakistan
2) Afghanistan
3) J&K
4) Xinjiang
They will take start nibbling at any carrots they can have.

(above)Scenario 2 extension: Both (a) and (b) will make TFTAs test unless Unkil has their hands tied. This will lead to Scenario 1

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 01 Sep 2009 08:25

Thanks guys for voting. I want everyone to note, that every word that everyone writes is being read and monitored by different people all over.
Since BRF is invariably ahead of the curve, the opinion of a knowledgeable group of people is important to all, strategists and governments alike.

I don't think GOAT will die, because what we think is the GOAT hunt is actually something long term.
And no, I don't think the pakistanis will test if India tests. They have not tested ever since the GOAT hunt entered their backyard, while India has gone on and tested agnis and brahmos and PADs all the way.

Dr. Santhanam's revelation has done something similar to the 'shoe' incident by Jernail Singh (Sorry for the crass comparision), but this does put paid to any effort to sign upto shitty bitty on the sly. It has further served to bring out in the open the whispers which were getting loud anyway. The fact that GoI has had to resort to Dr Kalam, and the Hon'ble Home Minister defending the tests as succesful, shows that GoI's cannons are blanks, and GoI is eager to brush this away. Worse the attempt at deception - for what ever reasons - is seen as a disservice to the national interest.

Finally I agree with the gurus, that india's leadership seems to be in a bind with their penchant for 'Log kya kahenge' and a quest for personal legacy more than anything else.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 01 Sep 2009 08:33

I personally did not vote because the choices don;t have anything that fit in with what I think. But I just want to point out hat anyone who talks of "ratification" is not talking about India.

Two of those choices have nothing to do with India.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 01 Sep 2009 08:49

We give == chances to biradhers and biladels.

We are like this onlee.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 01 Sep 2009 09:10

Gagan wrote:We give == chances to biradhers and biladels.

We are like this onlee.

rkirankr · Post by **rkirankr** » 01 Sep 2009 16:19

Since we have any way accepted that we are meddling in Baluch.Why not test in Baluchistan with the help of our friends there and blame the pakis for testing. Pakis get sanction we get the bum.

girish.r · Post by **girish.r** » 01 Sep 2009 17:17

Voted for 1.

High time...... National Security comes first. Complete the nuclear triad in real sense.

The thought of nuking India should send shiver down the spineless......

Gaur · Post by **Gaur** » 01 Sep 2009 18:17

rkirankr wrote:Since we have any way accepted that we are meddling in Baluch.Why not test in Baluchistan with the help of our friends there and blame the pakis for testing. Pakis get sanction we get the bum.

The brilliance of the idea amazes me! How do you propose we do that?

abhiti · Post by **abhiti** » 01 Sep 2009 18:20

Today we have access to weapon so great that it guarantees permanent existence and permanent peace. Only ask is that we give the cost required to perfect it and deploy it in numbers. Look at Russia, I doubt its convential army is anywhere as capable as Indias. But despite the economic meltdown it still is a super power. Neither America or China threaten it with military action something which China does on daily basis to India. If we could spend a few tens of billion dollars required to deploy the nukes in numbers and tell China any future war will automatically turn nuclear you will have no war. Without it you can try keeping up the fools game of matching China in conventional war with there economy thrice ours. Only guarantee of peace is thousands of large nukes to enforce MAD on your enemy. We have technical know how and economic muscle to do it, remember we are attempting it in 21st century, America and Russia did it with much smaller economy than we have today.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 01 Sep 2009 18:28

rkirankr wrote:Since we have any way accepted that we are meddling in Baluch.Why not test in Baluchistan with the help of our friends there and blame the pakis for testing. Pakis get sanction we get the bum.

my sad little brain is on the verge of exploding at the mere contemplation of the brilliance of this idea !!

Gaur · Post by **Gaur** » 01 Sep 2009 18:45

^^ And I was beginning to think that only my SDRE dehati brain was unable to comprehend the brilliance of the plan. I am eagerly waiting to hear the proposed execution of this awesome idea.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 01 Sep 2009 20:18

Let us for a moment consider the argument that the PMs including vajpayee had to face.
The nuclear weapons are fine, what of the pressing need for a 9-10% growth and tech and cash inflow to ensure that India can indeed one day become G-3.

India possessing the nuclear weapons has already vitated the atmosphere internationally, from the NPA and the west's POV, india is an eyesore. We are further adding to their agony and living up to the image they have in their minds of devious-dark-cunning-Soviet loving-SDREs who are out to pontificate and attempt to destroy international piss. IOW we are only prolonging their and our own agony by remaining in the trishanku state.

1. The west will not allow India entry as an equal into these treaties because doing so might mean opening the door to other states too.
2. There will always be some tech sanctions against us as long as we are not signatories to these treaties.
3. As long as we don't complete our test series AND as long as we are not accepted as a NWS, we can't sign NPT, CTBT or FMCT. Once the above criteria are met, we will be OK on these treaties just as the P-5 are, but not before.
4. As long as there are these tech denials, there will never be that growth rate or tech inflows at the sustainable level we want to become G-3 in the short span of time that we want.

Now because of the situation, we are in a bind, but everyone else is cool here with India's present situation; it gives everyone piss. Because India does not sign these treaties, but does not upset the applecart by testing. So no pirablem onree.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 01 Sep 2009 22:03

Parijat Gaur wrote:^^ And I was beginning to think that only my SDRE dehati brain was unable to comprehend the brilliance of the plan. I am eagerly waiting to hear the proposed execution of this awesome idea.

Your SDRE dehati brain can't even comprehend this prilliant idea? Shame onlee..Just pack the bum in a yindoo truck, paint it green, drive all the way to Balochistan and booom kaboom..Bhat ijj to comprehend here I pooch?

anyusharma · Post by **anyusharma** » 01 Sep 2009 23:55

I am new to BR.

IMO, It is imperative that India keeps an all time ready fully tested credible nuclear arsenal. That doesn't mean we go on an all out warheads creating frenzy. Economic impacts on India might not be too severe, but our image as a respectable country will go down. We cant go on the path of NoKo or Iran saying to hell with the world, we do what we want. We're still aspiring to be a major world power.

Though, I feel GoI over emphasises on the fact that we need a 'credible minimal deterrence'. We have an arsenal which needs time to be assembled, time for the second strike to happen, by which time a lot of brethren would be dead already. A quick response all time ready nuclear ready arsenal is definitely the need of the hour. What we also need is a more than sufficient no. of warheads. The current estimates(i think they're 100 odd) are too less. And, we need to be absolutely sure that when and if the time comes to strike, our weapons WILL work and not fizz out. So if a few tests is what it takes to get us to that level, then that's what should be done. But continual testing will lead to all the wrong international attention.

But then again, thats what I think.

abhiti · Post by **abhiti** » 02 Sep 2009 00:16

anyusharma wrote:I am new to BR. IMO, It is imperative that India keeps an all time ready fully tested credible nuclear arsenal. That doesn't mean we go on an all out warheads creating frenzy. Economic impacts on India might not be too severe, but our image as a respectable country will go down. We cant go on the path of NoKo or Iran saying to hell with the world, we do what we want. We're still aspiring to be a major world power.

Saar India is in no danger of being NoKo or Iran. America (and EU) dish out good boy card to folks who help them with their strategic interests (security interests). Most of the time America's security interests are at cross purpose with other countries interests e.g. America will be more than happy if it can ask India to give Kashmir to Pakistan in return for Pakistan handing over Taliban and ALQ chiefs. MMS may even get Noble peace prize! But will that serve India's interest? So don't bet too much on image. China is an absolute dictatorship which has long proliferated nuclear and missile technology. Yet you see everyone lined up behind China. It isn't because of their image...it is because of their economic and military muscle. That is all that matters.

Gaur · Post by **Gaur** » 02 Sep 2009 00:29

Chandragupta wrote:
Parijat Gaur wrote:^^ And I was beginning to think that only my SDRE dehati brain was unable to comprehend the brilliance of the plan. I am eagerly waiting to hear the proposed execution of this awesome idea.
Your SDRE dehati brain can't even comprehend this prilliant idea? Shame onlee..Just pack the bum in a yindoo truck, paint it green, drive all the way to Balochistan and booom kaboom..Bhat ijj to comprehend here I pooch?

That was too good.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Sep 2009 00:55

Welcome, anyusharma.

Karmasura · Post by **Karmasura** » 02 Sep 2009 01:25

I voted for the first option.. Foreign policy must be driven by both sweet talk and muscles of silicon carbide..