Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP), Jan. 29, 2010

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 26 Feb 2010 19:13

X-Posting from Afganistan Thread:

Twitter NDTV:

Two Indian army officers missing in Kabul

Kabul blast: 5 Indian army officers hospitalised with burn, splinter injures

So, ISI is using Afghanistan as proxy for attacking India.

Three points:

-- It seems ISI chose Afg. as a proxie to target India as they could not replicate another Pune (because of percieved blowback in short term and not capability). But who are they afraid of?

-- And they want the talks to fail.

Question is, why?

-- In addition to point no 1 above, do they also want to send out a message? But to whom?
-- What is the motive of attack? And timing? anything to do with "our version" of good taliban?

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 26 Feb 2010 19:20

ALso the smaller TSP states will want India to Broker the fights inbetween them and will focus more on each other.

Exactly. All statements emanating from our political establishment have never even imagined, forget internalizing that Pakistan will always be against India and do it's best to damage her. There is no solution to Pakistan's hate and ill will to India. To give peace a real good chance..Pakistan has to go.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 26 Feb 2010 19:26

The message is always the same, plain and simple. You Kaafirs are inferior to us Paks, how dare you confront us on our Pious activities in Public and damage our H&D

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 26 Feb 2010 19:33

Kashmiri militancy fathered in Pakistan: Musharraf

Addressing a meeting on the subject of 'Leadership' at the House of Lords committee here earlier this week, Musharraf said Kashmiri Mujahideen groups, that first came to the scene twenty years ago, enjoyed great support in Pakistan and the case is similar even now.

"Kashmir is the core issue and without resolution of this imbroglio amicably, India and Pakistan can't enjoy cordial and normal relations as neighbours. UN resolutions to this effect are intact and effective unless both the parties abandon them and seek a new dimension," Musharraf said.

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 26 Feb 2010 19:38

Quetta Shura may prevail despite arrest of 7 of 15 top Taliban leaders

After the arrest of seven of 15 top leaders of the Quetta Shura, the Afghanistan Taliban may have come under intense pressure, but the formation of other such terror council cannot be ruled out, the Christian Science Monitor reports

.

shaardula · Post by **shaardula** » 26 Feb 2010 20:00

Suppiah wrote:http://www.hindu.com/2010/02/26/stories ... 390100.htm

A quiet blackout of all negative comments from the jehadi pig Bashir. In fact this one blames TV channels for airing his comments but not Bashir for saying them!

http://www.hindu.com/2010/02/26/stories ... 251000.htm

Bashir rubbished Indian dossier as 'literature' - and also rubbished demands for acting against terrorists - anything can be more clear and direct?

Suppressing facts, spreading lies, twisting news....Stalinist yellow journalism at its best..

exactly!! last night i desperately searched the entire website for the hindu's reportage of bashir's rant. no mention. its so frustrating. when the hindu does it. they can editorialize whatever they want. but when they start pruning out reports its so self defeating. their credibility as the preeminent newspaper of record in the entire subcontinent* takes serious beating.

*have you read dawn reports? they are juvenile.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 26 Feb 2010 20:04

shaardula wrote:
exactly!! last night i desperately searched the entire website for the hindu's reportage of bashir's rant. no mention. its so frustrating. when the hindu does it. they can editorialize whatever they want. but when they start pruning out reports its so self defeating. their credibility as the preeminent newspaper of record in the entire subcontinent* takes serious beating.

*have you read dawn reports? they are juvenile.

Yes, what people refrain from saying is often more reveals more about them than what they say.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 26 Feb 2010 20:10

Have the Pakis declared an all-out war of terrorism?

The fact is they are on their last legs, being sustained only by oxygen from the baaps ... if the support were withdrawn they would collapse in like 5 minutes. Their whole ideological model is bankrupt, like East Germany in 1989. And that's becoming obvious even to many Pakis.

In these circumstances, desperate flailing can be expected. Terrorist attacks may increase. India will have to respond very deliberately. Who was it that said something about fastening seat-belts?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 26 Feb 2010 20:37

Almost identical to the IOL report that I posted, probably ripped some parts from the IOL article.

Saudis 'pushed ISI to aid U.S.'

BEIRUT, Lebanon, Feb. 25 (UPI) -- The flow of high-grade intelligence from Pakistan's leading security organization that has led to the recent capture or death of a dozen top Taliban chiefs was the result of high-level pressure from Saudi Arabia, diplomatic sources said.

The close links established over the years between the Saudi royal family and the upper echelons of Pakistan's powerful military and intelligence establishments has given Riyadh unusual influence in Islamabad.

The Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan's powerful intelligence service which helped create the Taliban in the 1990s, was persuaded to cooperate with the United States by the powerful head of Saudi Arabia's principal intelligence service, the General Intelligence Presidency, Prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz, younger half-brother of King Abdallah.

He conducted shuttle diplomacy between Riyadh and Islamabad, where he convinced Lt. Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, the chief of staff of the Pakistani army, to order the ISI to play ball.

Saudi petrodollars had a lot to do with that. The sources say that Riyadh has been helping the Pakistani military pay for its recent offensive against the Taliban.

Riyadh partly financed Pakistan's $1.6 billion purchase of three Agosta 90-B diesel attack submarines built by DCNS of France in 1994 and to buy Lockheed Martin F-16 fighter jets from the United States.

At the same time, Western governments, hit by the global recession, have been urging Riyadh to finance efforts to buy off some of the more "moderate" Taliban leaders in an effort to negotiate a settlement that would isolate the hard-line elements within the fundamentalist movement in much the same way the Americans bought off Sunni insurgents in Iraq to allow U.S. forces to withdraw.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai, who has been advocating a negotiated settlement for some time, enlisted the Saudis two years ago, which resulted in a meeting between Karzai's envoys and Taliban chieftains in Riyadh.

Karzai visited Saudi Arabia in February, supposedly on a personal pilgrimage to Mecca, but in fact to meet King Abdallah and Muqrin to discuss Saudi help in accelerating efforts to bring about a settlement.

Muqrin met several times with Kayani, who was director general of ISI from October 2004 to October 2007 and retained immense influence with that organization when he was promoted to chief of staff in November 2007 to replace Gen. Pervez Musharraf when he relinquished his army commands.

Kayani has long been close to the Saudis. In May 2006, while still ISI's chief, he visited Riyadh with Gen. Mohammad Zaki, then head of ISI's counter-terrorism section, for closed-door talks with Muqrin on intelligence cooperation.

Amid all this activity, U.S. and British intelligence chiefs have been involved with the Saudis, too.

CIA Director Leon Panetta and John Sawers, who took over as head of Britain's Secret Intelligence Service, better known as MI6, in June 2009, have both visited Riyadh in recent weeks.

At the behest of the Pakistani military, the Saudis sent their long-serving foreign minister, Prince Saud al Faisal, to New Delhi in a bid to reduce tension with archrival Islamabad so that the Pakistani military could pull troops from the northwestern border to move against the Taliban.

For now, at least, the ISI appears prepared to work with the Americans against the Taliban but the Islamists are believed to still have many sympathizers within the powerful and highly secretive organization.

It remains to be seen whether these elements will sabotage the new-found cooperation with Western forces.

One indication may have been provided by the ISI's refusal to hand over Abdul Ghani Baradar, military commander of Afghanistan's Taliban and its No. 2 figures after leader Mullah Mohammed Omar, captured while hiding in Karachi Feb.16, to the CIA for interrogation.

However, the U.S. global security consultancy Stratfor notes that the fact that Baradar was arrested at all underlines a significant shift in ISI policy.

Nonetheless, there remains considerable distrust of the CIA and other Western intelligence services within some sections of the ISI and it remains to be seen how long the policy of cooperation will continue.

Avinash R · Post by **Avinash R** » 26 Feb 2010 20:49

Two Pakistan players in match-fixing investigation

Let the conspiracy theories and finger pointing begin.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Feb 2010 20:57

rohitvats wrote:X-Posting from Afganistan Thread:

Twitter NDTV:

Two Indian army officers missing in Kabul

Kabul blast: 5 Indian army officers hospitalised with burn, splinter injures
So, ISI is using Afghanistan as proxy for attacking India.

Three points:

-- It seems ISI chose Afg. as a proxie to target India as they could not replicate another Pune (because of percieved blowback in short term and not capability). But who are they afraid of?

-- And they want the talks to fail.

Question is, why?

-- In addition to point no 1 above, do they also want to send out a message? But to whom?
-- What is the motive of attack? And timing? anything to do with "our version" of good taliban?

The message is to the US not to include India in the Afghan peace process.

While talks awere going on they attacked Indian workers in Kabul, 300m near the Afghan Central Ministry offices. So its a message to Afghans also. Next time it could be the Ministry itself.

And overall to India to stay out.

Could be due to our efforts at identifying the good Taliban.

I dont see why covert action cant be taken up in Afghanistan as part of security of the Indian presence there.

---------

Also a telling sign of US incompetence. India with its modicum of resources is able to achieve quite a lot in marginalizing the TSP in Afghanistan. If it were not for US supporting the TSP in its terrorism, Afghan issue would have been settled long time ago.

Off course the attack by TSP is aimed at Afghan and Indian resources and is a fallout of having to arrest half the Quetta Shura the governing council of the Taliban.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Feb 2010 21:08

jamwal wrote:Quetta Shura may prevail despite arrest of 7 of 15 top Taliban leaders

After the arrest of seven of 15 top leaders of the Quetta Shura, the Afghanistan Taliban may have come under intense pressure, but the formation of other such terror council cannot be ruled out, the Christian Science Monitor reports
.

From above report Marjah is controlled by Quetta Shura honchos. Most likely the crackdown on the QS leadership was demanded by US to ensure a modicum of success in Marjah. TSPA probably sacrificed the 'good' Taliban to appear to be forceful to the US. Two houbaras in one shot.

Mullah Abdul Qayoum Zakir, who was arrested in Pakistan's recent crackdown, headed two such bodies.

Like the top council, these two shuras are based in Quetta, Pakistan, and are responsible for military affairs in southern and western Afghanistan, including resistance to the ongoing United States-led offensive in the town of Marjah.

So Mullah A. Q. Zakir became a bakri to GOAT.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 26 Feb 2010 21:11

rohitvats wrote:X-Posting from Afganistan Thread:

Twitter NDTV:

Two Indian army officers missing in Kabul

Kabul blast: 5 Indian army officers hospitalised with burn, splinter injures
So, ISI is using Afghanistan as proxy for attacking India.

Three points:

-- It seems ISI chose Afg. as a proxie to target India as they could not replicate another Pune (because of percieved blowback in short term and not capability). But who are they afraid of?

-- And they want the talks to fail.

Question is, why?

-- In addition to point no 1 above, do they also want to send out a message? But to whom?
-- What is the motive of attack? And timing? anything to do with "our version" of good taliban?

They are still trying to railroad us into a very specific course of action. Their cup of woes has shown no signs of stopping the torrential overflow.

Concede our supremacy, abandon your policies and accommodate
TSP, otherwise....

Every moron paki army chief thinks that his way is the best. So they all start over the same rigmarole once again. Their IQ and shoe size are the same and in single digits onlee.

They were acutely aware of the outcome of the Indo pak foreign secretary level talks even before they came to Delhi. The afghan riposte is just to show their amreki masters that they still have some teeth.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 26 Feb 2010 21:19

Pakistan's Agosta 90Bs are saudi property and are on a free lease to Pakistan !

One has always wondered where pakistan finds the money to buy mil hardware. Now we know. The saudis are hedging their bets by stationing mil hardware outside their shores to be operated by pakis (Just as some of their fighter planes are operated by pakis)

This matter needs to be taken up with the Saudis. The Saudis need to promise that in the event of hostilities, military hardware bought with Saudi money will not be used against India.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 26 Feb 2010 21:20

Shortcut Aziz, now an employee of Lakshi Mittal

Staff Reporter
KARACHI: Former prime minister Shaukat Aziz has been appointed as financial advisor to prominent Indian businessman Lakshmi Mittal. According to details, Shaukat Aziz has been playing a new role as financial advisor to Lakshmi Mittal to whom the former PM had sold Pakistan Steel Mills, which was later stopped by the Supreme Court of Pakistan.
Lakshmi Mittal, who is owner of some 30 steels mills in India, made Shaukat Aziz's appointment in his London office. People had expressed their annoyance over the disgraceful step taken by the former prime minister for accepting offer from an Indian businessman in the wake of recent tension between the two countries on different core issues particularly water dispute and Kashmir issue.-Agencies

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 26 Feb 2010 21:21

ramana wrote: The message is to the US not to include India in the Afghan peace process.

While talks awere going on they attacked Indian workers in Kabul, 300m near the Afghan Central Ministry offices. So its a message to Afghans also. Next time it could be the Ministry itself.

And overall to India to stay out.

Could be due to our efforts at identifying the good Taliban.

I dont see why covert action cant be taken up in Afghanistan as part of security of the Indian presence there.

Agree with that 100%. RAaw is already there, but mainly Signals stuff. Looks like its a JV. What is needed is increased Humint, but that was what the JV with Iran was about I feel. But Iran's issues are almost solved now with Rigi being sent to Tehran. So will they continue?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 26 Feb 2010 21:25

Gagan wrote:Pakistan's Agosta 90Bs are saudi property and are on a free lease to Pakistan !

One has always wondered where pakistan finds the money to buy mil hardware. Now we know. The saudis are hedging their bets by stationing mil hardware outside their shores to be operated by pakis (Just as some of their fighter planes are operated by pakis)

This matter needs to be taken up with the Saudis. The Saudis need to promise that in the event of hostilities, military hardware bought with Saudi money will not be used against India.

Yawwn, this is oooldd neews Gaganji. Please refer to post1 regarding KSA TSP cooperation.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Feb 2010 21:28

They will say "Yes, Yes off course!" and let the TSP use the hardware anyways and wring their hands and say "What to do they over ruled us!"

The Shah of Iran did this very thing in 1971. The King of Jordan allowed his F-86s to be flown to TSP in 1965.

A better option is to let them know they will be considered a co-belligerent and their asse(t)s will be at risk especially Riyadh which is in Agni III range with its 1.5 tonne conventional warhead.

kenop · Post by **kenop** » 26 Feb 2010 21:29

Pakistan has moved into a position of focussing on Yindia as is clear from their betrayal of the strategic assets related to Iran and Afghanistan (US). It also points to a certain amount of squeeze on their ability to keep busy at multiple fronts.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 26 Feb 2010 21:38

kenop wrote: It also points to a certain amount of squeeze on their ability to keep busy at multiple fronts.

How much? That is the assessment we are looking for.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 26 Feb 2010 21:46

SSridhar wrote:
RamaY wrote:Could it be that a faction of Taliban came much closer to the unmentionable item?
I don't believe so. It was perhaps some damning revelation of the nexus between ISI and the Taliban.

Hmmm. I do not think ISI is catching the good-taliban now. However, If they are capturing BAD-taliban, then it might not be a good outcome for Unkil, because the bad-taliban are pushing for Paki-side of Pakthunkwa. Unkil can show some progress to his internal audience, nevertheless.

I propose Unkil cooperates with selected people whom TSP betrays, but are willing to work with Karzai govt.

That could be a good strategy for Afghanistan?

Any guess on the possible scenarios?

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 26 Feb 2010 21:48

ramana wrote:They will say "Yes, Yes off course!" and let the TSP use the hardware anyways and wring their hands and say "What to do they over ruled us!"

The Shah of Iran did this very thing in 1971. The King of Jordan allowed his F-86s to be flown to TSP in 1965.

A better option is to let them know they will be considered a co-belligerent and their asse(t)s will be at risk especially Riyadh which is in Agni III range with its 1.5 tonne conventional warhead.

Scare the camel piss out of the saudis and whoever else.

Of course, a lot of mallus will come back in a great hurry.

kenop · Post by **kenop** » 26 Feb 2010 21:54

The Pak setup is hard-wired to do anything else but go soft on its campaign against India. It is like the natural instinct to stay alive. The reason why Pak would not give up trying to harm India is well understood on BRF.
The Rigi affair points to some developments between Iran-Pak(-US?). What it could be is not quite clear from the available information. The whole affair of capture has come in two versions (plane from Dubai diverted to Iran, plane from a CAR country ordered to touch down). I keep a question mark on US as a lot of actions of Pakistan can be traced to the presssure US is able to exercise. Why would US take/aid any step to create a comfortable situation for Iran is not quite clear to me. If it is not under pressure from the US, then it is their own decision which should mean getting away from lower priority jobs.

kenop · Post by **kenop** » 26 Feb 2010 22:07

On the Saudi angle, Loksabha TV had a discussion between an Indian ex-abmassador to KSA and the chairman of the Indo-Saudi Business Council. The anchor seemed cautious in taking up the obvious support extended to the Pureland (it came up in the last few minutes). The ambassador too was quite cautious (they are supposed to be unless they are from the martial race). To me the most striking points was the constant reminder by the Saudi guy to the effect that they love india and want Indian businesses to take part in the opportunities being created in KSA etc. Very very insistent and lamenting that Indian businesses have not taken benefits of the attention KSA can give them etc.
This program was in light of the visit by MMS to KSA in next few days. From the program came to know that the last trip by an Indian PM was in the times of IG and King Abdullah was in Indian in 2006.
Maybe, I do not know the whole background of Indian relations with the KSA, but I somehow got the feeling that these (business) overtures (if they indeed are true) have something else at the background. There was a discussion on the big Indian workforce over there but nothing on their conditions etc.
Here ends the rambling on KSA.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Feb 2010 22:12

kenop wrote:The Pak setup is hard-wired to do anything else but go soft on its campaign against India. It is like the natural instinct to stay alive. The reason why Pak would not give up trying to harm India is well understood on BRF.
The Rigi affair points to some developments between Iran-Pak(-US?). What it could be is not quite clear from the available information. The whole affair of capture has come in two versions (plane from Dubai diverted to Iran, plane from a CAR country ordered to touch down). I keep a question mark on US as a lot of actions of Pakistan can be traced to the presssure US is able to exercise. Why would US take/aid any step to create a comfortable situation for Iran is not quite clear to me. If it is not under pressure from the US, then it is their own decision which should mean getting away from lower priority jobs.

Agree- objective is to reduce/minimize friction points. Good job kenop....

Nightwatch on Rigi affair...

Iran: Security. Sunni opposition and Jundallah leader Abdolmalek Rigi, whose capture was announced by Iranian authorities on 23 February, reportedly said in a televised press conference he met with agents from the CIA in Dubai and that the United States offered his group unlimited support, including a military base near the Iranian border equipped with weapons and training facilities, Iranian state-run Press TV reported.

Rigi said he was scheduled to meet with a top U.S intelligence official at the Manas air base in Kyrgyzstan to discuss details of the U.S. offer of support, and said that the CIA agents said Iran is the primary focus of the United States, more than al Qaida or the Taliban. Rigi also said that the agents told him the United States intends to support all anti-Iranian groups capable of destabilizing the country, as a U.S. military attack on Iran would be difficult.

Note: Most of the statements ascribed to Rigi are common knowledge in the blogosphere. If the Pakistanis cooperated with Iran in Rigi’s capture, his revelations provide justification for Pakistan to investigate alleged US-abetted subversion of Iran from western Baluchistan. If Rigi’s claims can be established or if Pakistan decides to accept them at face value, Pakistan can use them to accuse the US of illegally using Pakistan as a base to subvert its neighbor, Iran, and thereby blunt US pressure for more counter-terrorist and counter-military operations.

The entire capture and the disclosures appear crafted to be used against the US. It is almost an article of faith that Rigi could not have been captured without Pakistani intelligence support. That means Pakistan sacrificed another pawn to try to reclaim control of the board.

Shows TSP is reducing its chances of confrontation if push comes to shove. And Kabul bombing is to ensure it push comes sooner.

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 26 Feb 2010 22:12

shyamd wrote:
Gagan wrote:Pakistan's Agosta 90Bs are saudi property and are on a free lease to Pakistan !

The saudis are hedging their bets by stationing mil hardware outside their shores to be operated by pakis (Just as some of their fighter planes are operated by pakis)

The questions to ask are: are the subs armed and are shias allowed? The two dont mix as far as the saudis are concerned.

lakshmikanth · Post by **lakshmikanth** » 26 Feb 2010 22:33

Folks an obvious realization just occurred to me, apologies if this has been discussed before. Afghan attack was on the 26th which matches with the 13th/26th pattern.

kenop · Post by **kenop** » 26 Feb 2010 22:35

RamaY wrote:
Hmmm. I do not think ISI is catching the good-taliban now. However, If they are capturing BAD-taliban, then it might not be a good outcome for Unkil, because the bad-taliban are pushing for Paki-side of Pakthunkwa. Unkil can show some progress to his internal audience, nevertheless.

I propose Unkil cooperates with selected people whom TSP betrays, but are willing to work with Karzai govt.

That could be a good strategy for Afghanistan?

Any guess on the possible scenarios?

Creation of Pakhtun land idependent of Pakistan can be a good option as it would provide route for CAR oil delivery without involving Pakistan. If Unkil thinks out of the box, it solves their problem of access without paying the PakTax.
Additional benefit would be to keep pressure on Iran (Pakhtun angle). Hillory is already worried about the money they are spending on Pakistan.

Carl_T · Post by **Carl_T** » 26 Feb 2010 23:11

harbans wrote: As long as we keep internalizing that Pakistan will always exist as out neighbour, we will have no solution except giving into their demands for keeping peace. Pakistan will always be a revisionist state, India a status quoist one. In this conflict it's always the revisionist who makes gains.

I think that in a future war, we will this time crush TSP, breaking their military and manufacturing infrastructure and turning them into a demilitarized state. The problem with that is that I feel we will end up facing a Gaza-type scenario with a demilitarized hostile state with plenty of people but no military capabilities. I can't see that as being beneficial.

For that reason I think we seriously have to cut Pakistan away from Balochistan and Chitral, and leave it with Sindh, Punjab and the Pakhtoon regions. Sindh having their largest city will likely be pro Pakistan, and the NWFP will be a base of Paliban.

Just IMO of course.

AnimeshP · Post by **AnimeshP** » 26 Feb 2010 23:41

Carl_T wrote:I think that in a future war, we will this time crush TSP, breaking their military and manufacturing infrastructure and turning them into a demilitarized state. The problem with that is that I feel we will end up facing a Gaza-type scenario with a demilitarized hostile state with plenty of people but no military capabilities. I can't see that as being beneficial.

For that reason I think we seriously have to cut Pakistan away from Balochistan and Chitral, and leave it with Sindh, Punjab and the Pakhtoon regions. Sindh having their largest city will likely be pro Pakistan, and the NWFP will be a base of Paliban.

Just IMO of course.

Carl_T ... if the scenario you put into the first sentence comes true, then the scenario you put in the last para will automatically come true.. If Pakistan's military capability is destroyed, Sindh, baluchistan and NWFP will secede and declare independence.
This was exactly what the Americans were afraid of in 1971. If you read the State Dept archives for what they call as the "South Asia Crisis of 1971", both Nixon and Kissinger have repeatedly discussed what they thought would happen if IG decided to push on in West Pakistan after Bangladesh was liberated. That was one of the reasons why they escalated the stakes for USSR forcing the ceasfire after liberation of Bangladesh.

shaardula · Post by **shaardula** » 26 Feb 2010 23:50

abhishek_sharma wrote:Barkha Dutt, K. C. Singh, Abhishek Singhvi and Siddharth Vardharajan on NDTV

http://www.ndtv.com/news/videos/video_p ... id=1204764

Siddharth Vardharajan is defending the Pakis. Nothing new.

Given where we as a group are, SV with his missionary zeal to bear witness to the gospel of peace is decidedly irritating to listen to. especially for those of us who follow TSP daily and have more or less figured out the game plan of TSP. when SV gets into semantic jugglery and starts playing around with words he is intolerable. but really what he said in the interview only exposes him as a babu in print. he comes across as a stickler for details. But I think underlying all this hot air from SV is this fact which he have inadvertently blurted out:

i think we need to be mindful of what are the motivations of groups like the lashkar AND pakistani military establishment, and not fall into the trap of allowing them to perpetuate a situation of tension between us.

those who follow this thread carefully, will remember this was already anticipated by brf-ites. one of the GoI groups wants to try and see how far it can get in cultivating a pakistani group in opposition to TSPA. a group out there wants to see if a cleave between TSP and TSPA is possible. in order to do this, the alternate group needs space and must feel power. Given, all that we know about TSP society in general, such a group must also be seen to be independent and have 'won' some battles with india. The gambit is, to get the people of TSP to seek an alternative to TSPA. i think the babus of india have computed that in the experience-able future, in the next 10-50 years, even if our forces can win battles against TSPA, India cannot absorb TSP or its citizens as-they are in whatever form.

the problem is not TSPA. The problem is what TSPA has done to its people. When we talk about how the two countries are different, we dont really appreciate how the two countries are really different! In India people are striving to achieve progressive ideals. In India we are seeing this become norm amongst common people. Its not just people of Nadeem Pracha, Cowasjee etc social and economic class who are batting for these ideals but ordinary people.

The point is, TSP peoples' world view has been stunted and they are not ready for any introduction to rationalism. When we got partitioned, it was not just land that was lost. It was a partion of two different ideas, one of which was divisive. That idea must be defeated.

this is not to say that we must tolerate TSP's attrocities. I'm only saying we must always act to try and create an alternate to TSPA.

Carl_T · Post by **Carl_T** » 26 Feb 2010 23:56

AnimeshP wrote:
Carl_T ... if the scenario you put into the first sentence comes true, then the scenario you put in the last para will automatically come true.. If Pakistan's military capability is destroyed, Sindh, baluchistan and NWFP will secede and declare independence.
This was exactly what the Americans were afraid of in 1971. If you read the State Dept archives for what they call as the "South Asia Crisis of 1971", both Nixon and Kissinger have repeatedly discussed what they thought would happen if IG decided to push on in West Pakistan after Bangladesh was liberated. That was one of the reasons why they escalated the stakes for USSR forcing the ceasfire after liberation of Bangladesh.

I don't think Sindh and NWFP will secede from Pakistan. But what I mean by my scenario is that we have to ACTIVELY control Balochistan by proxy and not let them become independent on their own merit in order to keep them India-friendly, we wouldn't want to have more Bangladeshs.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 27 Feb 2010 01:01

ramana wrote:They will say "Yes, Yes off course!" and let the TSP use the hardware anyways and wring their hands and say "What to do they over ruled us!"

The Shah of Iran did this very thing in 1971. The King of Jordan allowed his F-86s to be flown to TSP in 1965.

A better option is to let them know they will be considered a co-belligerent and their asse(t)s will be at risk especially Riyadh which is in Agni III range with its 1.5 tonne conventional warhead.

One thing they fear is losing all their development. If you threaten the destruction of everything important to them, they will back down. But now is not the time to makee the warning. Every effort needs to be made to stop the SANlearprogram.

Karna_A · Post by **Karna_A** » 27 Feb 2010 02:54

ramana wrote:

A better option is to let them know they will be considered a co-belligerent and their asse(t)s will be at risk especially Riyadh which is in Agni III range with its 1.5 tonne conventional warhead.

Agree 100%.
The financial and spiritual capital of TSP is Riyadh. There are 2 ways to get KSA to arm-twist TSP.
One is to remind that an all out India-TSP war has chances of reducing world M population by 50% as after an all out war(1st phase) Col. Purohit would be considered a pacifist and would lead to an ultra right wing fanatical govt aka Israel++ which in other phases of war will take down the others.
The other is of course a direct threat where TSP + all its Asian friends will have to pay the price of any misadventure and that includes KSA i.e. a Samson option that includes TSP + all its past, present and future Asian friends.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 27 Feb 2010 03:14

No need to tell them but let it be known that all TSP holds holy and dear and all those who hold TSp dear and holy in this life will be considred fair target for complete anihilation in all out war . 2 hajar Barra patakhas will speak for themsleves and send Diwali message at large.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 27 Feb 2010 03:25

Dawn

KARACHI: Three high profile militants have been arrested on friday in Karachi. Police claim to have foiled a major terrorist attack planned for the 12th Rabi Ul Awwal celebrations.

Officials have told DawnNews that three suspects belonging to banned outfit Lashkra-e-Jhangvi have been arrested from Jamshed road.

Police claim to have recovered over 20 kg of high intensity explosives of Indian origin.

PS: ARY News says detonators, potassium nitrate and C4 were recovered from the three.

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 27 Feb 2010 03:50

From twitter

Tayeb Popalzai, said to be close aide of Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar, arrested in Karachi, security source says - NBC News

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 27 Feb 2010 04:39

Prem wrote:No need to tell them but let it be known that all TSP holds holy and dear and all those who hold TSp dear and holy in this life will be considred fair target for complete anihilation in all out war . 2 hajar Barra patakhas will speak for themsleves and send Diwali message at large.

I think otherwise Prem-ji.

India needs to be assertive without being belligerent. India has to talk to each party on the merits of their collective actions. For example, if nation “A” contributes to Indian national interests (say 5 points worth) on a one-on-one basis, while hurting Indian interests (say 6 points) indirectly thru “P”, “Q”, “R”, and “S”; then “A” should be presented with this information and say their 5-point cooperation with India is negated by their intentional/unintentional actions somewhere else.

Once India presents this information in a logical and objective way, and provide alternative solutions, our counterparts will (definitely) understand this logic and act accordingly.

India must make its intentions clear to all major powers that they are India’s strategic competitors as long as their net-contributions hover in “red”. Our sticks ensure that none of our strategic competitors can take India lightly; as they will be long enough to reach our distant neighbor

The key point here is to offer alternative scenarios to our partners. In my example above; India can propose to “A” that it will be trusted and considered a friendly nation if it could bring its net friendship-factor (total score) into positive; and there are 4 different solutions (“P”, “Q”, “R”, and “S”). Nation “A” can make its own choices regarding these nations, if it intends to be trusted by India.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 27 Feb 2010 04:49

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee has presented the annual budget, and Pakistani media are already complaining about India's defence budget of Rs. 1,47,344 crores. According to them a poor country should spend more money for education and poverty alleviation.

Meanwhile, he also announced that the Indian rupee will have a symbol of its own.

Symbol for Indian Rupee
106. In the ensuing year, we intend to formalise a symbol for the Indian Rupee, which reflects and captures the Indian ethos and culture. With this, Indian Rupee will join the select club of currencies such as the US Dollar, British Pound Sterling, Euro and Japanese Yen that have a clear distinguishing identity.

Any bets about how long before Pakis decide their rupee needs a symbol?

Likewise in the TV news is the Pakistani navy complaining that the Indian navy is spending way beyond what Pakistan estimates as necessary for Indian defence.

Mahendra · Post by **Mahendra** » 27 Feb 2010 04:56

I know this is not Benis thread but can't resist the artist and technology strategist ( soon to be)in me who wants to propose the following symbol for the Pacqui rupee