Managing Pakistan's failure

[shyamd]

^^ Muppalla ji. I think you got it right. I asked source about it. He said he wasnt sure how they could actually implement it without a coup. So he reckons it was just psyops to get Kayani to behave. The fact that source mentioned coup reminds me of the psy ops articles about US attempting a coup a couple of months back.

[chaanakya]

Yawn reports

SC CJ statement on possible Coup.

ISLAMABAD: Any action of the military without the express permission of the federal government would be illegal and unconstitutional, Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry on Saturday, DawnNews reported.

Speaking to participants of the National Defence University course in Islamabad, Justice Iftikhar said Article 6 would be used over violations of constitution and the law.

[ramana]

X-post...

I have been thinking about TSP quite a bit. From all indices(UNDP etc.) its a failed state and normally would be forced by the world to shape up. Yet the world doesn't do that. Most indices assume that the world is normally distributed.

I have also been reading Taleb's Black Swan and Mandelbrot statistics and Gladwell's What the Dog Saw and power law distribution vs normal curve distributions which have central tendencies. In other words non -linear states.

I then realized that TSP is not a normal state. Its a power law state. Just as only a very few recalcitrants, contribute to making the homeless problem very bad, so does TSP contribute to making global terrorism, nuke proliferation and drugs distribution very bad. Its basket case of wrongs.

Gladwell writes about some successful programs that manage power law issues like homelessness, polluting cars and other egregious cases on principle of least expense. And this appears to be contradictory to normal distribution cases where solutions that apply to all cases are prescribed. Power law cases need appeasement to keep them from becoming a more expensive problem. It goes against normal solutions and appears morally bankrupt.

Does this make sense? It can explain the molly coddling of TSP and its elites by US and India to manage to keep it going and not become a become a bigger problem for others.

----

Add to this Shiv's pisko analysis that the inner core of < 2% in TSP contributes to this radical and egregious behavior which confirms the power law fit of TSP society.

[ramana]

Best thread for the X-post..

Read this along with my x-post above on Power law states.

I've tried to be factual and not added my reactions. This is definitely an incomplete list - I've compiled this from my recollection and this is not a transcript. My apologies if by poor recollection I have misrepresented BK.

On Pakistan

• An integral and sustainable Pakistan is in Indian interests. They keep the Islamic fundamentalist exports from the Arab world at bay, a buffer so to speak.
• Only 70% of Pakistani nuclear warheads have been mapped by the US, Israel and India. The remainder, according to Pakistan, will never be found. BK agrees. The notion of removing Pakistan's nuclear capability by force is not tenable.
• Their nuclear security is arguably better than India's.
• Without compromising border security, India should unilaterally let the Pakistani Army breathe easy by consolidating Indian Army resources on our side into [far] fewer units, not necessarily because these resources are needed elsewhere but because the Pakistani government has a good chance of gaining real control if the threat perceived by the Pakistani Army can be nullified.
• Liquid-fuelled nuclear-armed Prithvi missiles ought to be withdrawn unilaterally not only for the gesture but for the liability.
• Although an audience member suggested that it might be in Pakistani Army's interests to sustain their military industrial complex by hyping the Indian threat, he thought there was still a good chance of a viable peace between the two countries if India would relax. The ground for such on the Pakistani side is fertile. India, being the onerous threat, must make the first move.
• While their Navy might not win them plaudits, their air force is a professional unit by international standards.
• Their economy doesn't hold a candle to India's. That they have managed to keep themselves centre-stage in the Indian threat matrix despite this reflects immaturity on the Indian side and win of sorts for Pakistan.
• GoI needs to find the gumption to show generosity to India's smaller neighbours, all of whom India has managed to alienate but must now strive to win back. India has the financial means to show such generosity today and has no reason to fear. If Pakistan's economy is in doldrums, India can and should help. The benefits will be asymmetric.
• Cold Start is untenable in practice. Logistics will not be able to keep up with the advance units. Fuel for the tanks at battle speed [30~35 kph] will run out quickly. Advantages from early victories will be limited by the need to wait for more fuel from the support units, which will take time to catch up.
• Non-disputed territory won as a result of Cold Start will have to be returned sooner or later anyway in accordance to international law.
• Limited air-strikes are plausible for punitive measure. Cold Start isn’t.
• No idea if India is in Balochistan but splitting the country into many pieces, even if possible, won’t help India rather it will only cement the image of India as enemy.

On Indian Nuclear Deterrence

• From an international point of view, Indian nuclear deterrence is limited to 20 kT.
• India’s choice for 125 kT warheads is not out of some deep strategic thought but more an imitation of American norms.
• Thermonuclear warheads have been deployed but don’t yield any deterrence value
• India has admirably precise missiles and manoeuvring warheads [MARV]
• Indian scientists should be permitted by GoI to test MIRV, a capability available but in need of testing and validation for 6 years.
• Multiple 20kT or 125 kT missiles don’t amount to 1 MT missile from a deterrence point of view.
• Chinese megaton deterrence will make GoI pause for thought. Indian 20 kT deterrence will not make the Chinese government pause for thought. China challenged the US after the bombing of their Belgrade embassy by the US when they scavenged parts of the downed F-117. They are ready for war and willing to sacrifice population if that is what it takes. So 20 kT isn’t going to deter them.
• India has 11 device designs, for various purposes and yields, on the shelf waiting to be tested. These designs are creative and admirable. There is a clear need to test, not only for feedback to aid the designers, but to establish a greater deterrence.
• BK doesn’t see India testing further as long as R Chidambaram [RC] associated with the GoI.
• RC might be one of the best crystallographers in the world but that doesn’t mean he or any nuclear scientist for that matter understands strategy, deterrence, national policy, etc.
• Not only should we test but we shouldn’t even call a moratorium once we do.
• Ashley Tellis agreed with BK [on an occasion] that India might have a need to test. US reaction might not be vehement.

On China

• Hypersonic Brahmos will give any enemy food for thought. China is no exception.
• Hypersonic Brahmos at Nha Trang might give them sleepless nights.
• PLA might have a superior top-end but the bulk of their strength is not superior to Indian Army.
• PLA will not be able to overrun us like 1962.
• Try as they might, they will not get Tawang.
• India’s Su-30 MKI is second only to the F-22 Raptor. IAF will not be overpowered by PLAAF.
• BVR air-to-air missiles are effectively useless. BK has personally advised GoI in the past to strengthen in other ways, not BVR.
• The notion of F-35 for IAF is only amusing and not going to happen; “Hangar Queen”
• China believes, as senior officials have stated to BK, that regardless of India having the capability to pose a threat [or not], GoI neither has the political will to threaten nor the political will to deliver on the threat if challenged. This gives them confidence.
• Support of Tibetan cause by GoI has been inconstant
• Tibetan fighters are trained and willing. They only need the support. There is no such support from GoI.

On Indian Strategy

• Many opportunies for accumulating strategic assets in Maldives and Vietnam have been ignored by GoI in the past
• Chinese oil routes would already have been policed by now had these opportunities been availed.
• Vietnam is admirable for their steadfast resistance against several superior enemies and they prevailed each time. Vietnam has a 1000 year enmity with China. India should arm Vietnam
• India should accept the Vietnam’s offer to establish an Indian naval presence in their country near Nha Trang.
• Nha Trang will provide near line of sight to Hainan. China’s “James Bondian” submarine base there will be rendered less effective if India monitors from Nha Trang
• India should provide Vietnam with Hypersonic Brahmos when it is ready. This will counter the Chinese southern fleet. It could even pose a direct threat to Hainan island.
• India should not shy away from maintaining strategies with China as the likely aggressor instead of Pakistan
• Maintaining border positions 100 miles from the border with China is conceding 100 miles of Indian territory by default
• Border infrastructure is long overdue and finally getting some attention

[ramana]

X-post from burqa forum.....

Key points from Sri BK in NJ jirga -

1. China threat is imminent. Overall Indian military capabilities are at-par, if not better than, with China. The major gaps are in two areas - Nuclear deterrence and Political leadership/will. When the mushroom clouds start going up India all the preemptive philosophies evaporate in to thin air and the need of the hour would be the largest possible flowers. The posturing helps only to certain extent and makes sense if and only if it is backed by large mushroom flowers.

2. India should focus on the China challenge and ignore Pakistan threat. Pakistan was never a threat and will never be one. In fact a stable and progressive Pakistan is in the interests of India. In fact one can characterize all Indo-Pak wars as "communal riots with tanks". India should take some unilateral tactical measures to calm down Pakistan and make them partners in the western front.

My take on PRC -

I more or less agree with Sri BK on the first point. The tiny flower based deterrence is nothing but a joke. You would want to have the biggest danda for it to act as deterrence (to stop the opponent even from dreaming of attacking you). Instead our MCD doctrine allows the enemy to venture into a conflict. Once a nuclear conflict starts then the MCD fails as it doesn't translate into MAD.

The most common philosophical basis for MCD is "Vasudhaika Kutumbakam". In my opinion, if one were to believe wholeheartedly in Vasudhaika Kutumbakam, then even MAD is acceptable. Because VK exists even when I and you dont exist as it includes everything living and non-living being. So under Vasudhaika Kutumbakam philosophy it is acceptable to eradicate Asuric forces from earth even if it means near extinction of your side. I would rather destroy my brother to protect Dharma instead of letting Adharma takeover is the true basis of VK. Since your brother exists in you (in true VK) it is OK to kill him to protect Dharma.

On the second topic (w.r.t Pakistan) -

It is coincidence that I made the following post just a couple of days ago.

After all the religious riots in india are nothing but the conflict between two nations within the same nation-state, india.

Now think for a moment. Sri BK's statement that "All Indo-Pak wars are communal riots with tanks" fits perfectly into the point I was making. Here we have two nations - One overt Muslim nation and a perceived/alleged Hindu nation in subcontinent which are brought into war (BK's riot characteristics - contained to a specific space in a long border, limited time) as one nation wants to settle scores with another nation.

BK-group's recommendation is for India to understand Pakistani fears, concerns, prejudices and give it a meaningful space our western front is protected by Pakistan. He suggests (rightly IMO) that it is not in Indian Interests to support Pakistani disintegration and/or absorb some/any of its regions (for obvious reasons you know). I completely agree with him, as the above posturing doesn't mean we do not punish Pakistan (with punitive strikes, not CSD) as and when a terrorist attack happens in India. In a sense we become the new unkil of Pakis. We help them to the extent that they do not break-up or lose control but we ensure that they cannot hurt us in any meaningful manner. There seems to be acceptance of BK-vision in UPA2, as we can see in MMSpeak. Lets see how far this will go and what is achieved in return.

However, IMHO, for such a strategy to be implemented and managed over long periods of time, it cannot be the personal initiative of one or two individuals. It has to be institutionalized from bottom-up -
* Such a policy should be institutionalized to the extent that even a low-ranking policy/military official can order suitable punitive strike, the moment such an intention is observed in Paki society
* The strategic leadership community is continually aware of our Paki-management policy and is in complete agreement.

Now coming to the future scenarios for the sub-continent
1. We are coming to the realization that multiple mutually coopetitive national identities can co-exist within a nation-state (or sub-continent). This is sold as (sic) secularism to aam-aadmi. The only issue is the (sic) secularism is used to destroy only Hinduism (other Indic identities are not important or some times even useful, for example new-buddhism, to destroy Hinduism) while keeping the strength of Islamic and Christian identities.

2. The respective states (In this case India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, etc) have to cater the underlying national identities etc.,

3. This may impact the long term game of civilizational survival - What, How, When needs further discussion

4. If we stretch further, then we are looking at a transnational-states (such as SAARC or UN at the other extreme) who will be given the responsibility to ensure peace between nations (so that the religious riots do not cross nuclear Rubicon, hey if Indo-Pak war is religious riot with tanks, a Indo-China war is a religious riot with nukes ).

5. That means we are looking at economic and political (best recipe for mercantile feudal a.k.a MNCs) state structures in the near future.

If we Continue this thought further, we come back to square-one . What are we having now? A INC (Ideologically and economically Non-Citizenry) ruled state that is "managing" mutually non-cooperative nationalities (Hindus, Muslims, Christians, Maoists etc) in the name of (sic) secularism and piss and progress.

Sarve Jana: Sukhino Bhavantu!

[RamaY]

In the above notes of PratikDas garu,

Liquid-fuelled nuclear-armed Prithvi missiles ought to be withdrawn unilaterally not only for the gesture but for the liability.

AFAIR, BK suggest that India withdraws them unilaterally from western front and move them to Eastern Front deployment. To be effective they need to be deployed in eastern tip of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam?

[ramana]

On the Eastern border PVNR signed a "Peace and Tranquility" agreement with PRC that prohibits SSMs ~150km from LAC (Line of Actual Control) in 1993.

Thats why Brahmos which can do more damage are not SSMs.

[ramana]

If you map the human development indices on the vertical and countries on the horizonal waht you get is a bell curve of countries with the extreme left as good and extreme right as bad. Of the countries that would be in the extreme right are TSP, NoKo, Syria, Somalia etc. Of these TSP is most egregious as it has nukes, has proliferated nukes to NoKo, Libya, Iran etc, has drugs smuggling, is under Army control, failed political leadership, jihadi madrassas and export of terrorism. Its truly the poster child of Mad Max world. Its the single most contributor to problems in the world.
Now such countries follow the power law of extrema. Regular solutions to increase the development potential don't apply to such basket cases. What is needed is manage the country to avoid spillover.

This could explain the support that India is giving to Gilani etc.

To complicate this picture we have US, UK, PRC doing their best to direct the TSP recalcitrance towards India. We dont have such issues with homeless in Denver.

[ShauryaT]

In the above notes of PratikDas garu,

Liquid-fuelled nuclear-armed Prithvi missiles ought to be withdrawn unilaterally not only for the gesture but for the liability.

AFAIR, BK suggest that India withdraws them unilaterally from western front and move them to Eastern Front deployment. To be effective they need to be deployed in eastern tip of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam?

No good pollutes our own water sources.

[ramana]

Full text of that NDTV interview of Mushy. Read at your own peril.

Samachar Link to full text of Mushy Interview
His bombast shows he is at end of the rope for TSP and wants to get something before it falls.

[ramana]

I have done an analysis of KRC report in hindsight and had shown what factors caused the Kargil surprise. Looking back one can see the many missed signals. I had amusement at B Raman pleading that the agencies were not to be faulted for the intelligence failure.

Over the last decade I am wiser I hope and more careful in coming to conclusions.

One thing I realize is that the it was not a failure of just the intel agencies. The reason is the entire govt civil service is the assessment agency of which secret information provided by the intel agencies is at most ~10% or some such low number. In other words it was much bigger failure than earlier I thought and worte in BRM.

Then it comes how could this have happened?

So I went back in mind over the period from mid 90s. The J&K border was a hot border. In the 96-97 the constant border firings and infiltration were a pattern. Many a time the Paki had infiltrated and retreated an had established a foggy pattern of behavior. Then what changed?

I think Nawaz Badmash superceded six senior officers and promoted Mushy. Most likely he had some external guidance but thats besides the point. Mushy used the foggy pattern of infiltration to intrude and occupy vacated posts hoping to seize the higher ground and rely on international mediation.

Again my thoughts went to what Indian events emboldened the TSP to embark on this rash, serial terrorism on India?
I think two seminal events were the fall due to corruption and eventual murder of Rajiv Gandhi and the defeat of PVNR in 1995. (These were both internal feuds of INC) These two convinced the TSP and their backers that central authority(INC) in India was weak to non-existent and led to increased serial terrorist behavior.

Another behavior unmasked was the PRC_TSP nuclear proliferation. PRC showed its ugly intents by proliferating whole weapons and missiles and US mutely kpet its silence and would hector India on how it should kowtow to the new Asian hegemon.

[RajeshA]

X-Posting from TIRP Thread

I was listening to Bharat Karnad speaking at the NJ Meet, and what he said about Pakistan.

He spoke of having Pakistan as a buffer state between India and the Islamic Virus. I do agree with this assessment. His prescription is that we should make large gestures to Pakistan and co-opt them.

The major mistake we make, is that we believe we can change the mind-set in the Pakistan Establishment by showing our openness and generosity. I think co-option is in fact possible, but that is possible only when Pakistan is restructured in such a way, that its drivers change considerably and it in fact does become dependent on us.

Those drivers will not change in Pakistan's current form. We should give due where it is due. Pakistan has a certain geographic strategic importance, as the gateway to Central Asia. As long as it enjoys this advantage, it would always keep the hope that its this one advantage ensures that it can win in this centuries duel between Hindus and Muslims. That needs to change. That hope should be crushed and its anti-Indian drivers replaced by completely different issues of worry.

Pakistan needs to be broken up, so that India can play an effective game. I have no doubt that a cornered Pakjab region with or without a nuclear armed Army would be a facilitating partner for India's strategic power projection. But as long as Pakjab has access to the sea, has access to China through PoK, and control's India's access to Central Asia through Baluchistan, we cannot hope to see a change in the mentality of Pakistani Establishment.

If we manage to break up Pakistan, Pakistani (Pakjabi) Army becomes an unofficial adjunct of the Indian Army itself.

Till that happens, Bharat Karnad's prescription on Pakistan would be ineffective and can even be counter-productive. Counterproductive because we could be lulled into a feeling that 'Al ij Vell' on the Western front.

If we want to make Pakjabis into friends, we should first ensure that Pakjab loses all its Pushtun, Sindhi, Baloch, Gilgitian and Baltistani friends. Only then would Pakjab embrace India and Indian domination.

[RamaY]

Latest night watch report... Posting here to connect the dots...

NightWatch For the night of 18 November 2011       Pakistan-US: Special comment. This week, the Pakistani ambassador to the US submitted his resignation for his involvement as a conduit for conveying a politically explosive memorandum from Pakistani President Zardari to Admiral Mullen, when he was US Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff. The Washington Post published the text of the memo whose authenticity, on a prima facie basis, is established by the ambassador's request to resign.   The memo describes a "significant deterioration in Pakistan's political atmosphere, after the US raid that killed Usama bin Laden in Abbottabad last May. The elected civilian government feared a military overthrow, led by Chief of Army Staff, General Kayani and the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate.   The memo text says that Zardari asked for Mullen's intervention with Kayani to prevent a military takeover of government. In return, Zardari promised to "revamp" his government with a new national security team of pro-American officials in return for Mullen's intervention and made six additional representations.   The six additional promises include an independent investigation of bin Laden's presence in Pakistan; identification by name of those officers who harbored bin Laden followed by their dismissal and arrest; a commitment to hand over to US authorities bin Laden's deputy Zawahiri, plus Mullah Omar and Pakistani Taliban leader Sirajuddin Haqqani or permission for independent US operations to kill them; an offer to enlarge US oversight of the security of Pakistani nuclear weapons; the elimination of Section S of Inter-Services Intelligence which is the section that maintains contact with the Taliban and the Haqqani network; and to cooperate fully with India to bring to justice the perpetrators, inside or outside the government, responsible for the 2008 Mumbai massacre.   Several points are worth noting. Most important is that Zardari and Prime Minister Gilani's government are afraid of the Pakistan armed forces to such an extent that they would ask for American assistance to prevent a coup, however misdirected.   The Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, is legally a military advisor and chairman of the board of senior service staff officers. He also has a dual responsibility to report as a Congressional watchdog of the state of the armed services and has no authority independently to commit the US to anything. Zardari evidently did not appreciate the subtleties of the Chairman's task. Mullen could not and would not do such a thing without presidential authority.   Secondly, Zardari and Gilan appear to know or have a good idea about the identity of military personnel who harbored bin Laden.   Thirdly, Zardari and Gilani were prepared to hand over to the US or permit the US to kill other hostile leaders, including Zawahiri and Mullah Omar. This suggests they know or at least knew where these men were hiding at the time the memo was written.   Finally, the civilians distrusted the Pakistan Army and security forces to such an extent that they were willing to grant to the US exceptional oversight of Pakistani nuclear weapons. This condition of distrust has not changed and is likely to worsen.   What is missing from this unusual story is any account of the US reaction to and handling of the Memo. Mullen has flown to Pakistan frequently and no coup occurred, but the five other items are open. Civilian government in Pakistan remains both incompetent and fragile, plus under constant threat of military overthrow.

[PratikDas]

Latest night watch report... Posting here to connect the dots...

Source: KGS NighWatch NightWatch 20111118
Pakistan-US: Special comment. This week, the Pakistani ambassador to the US submitted his resignation for his involvement as a conduit for conveying a politically explosive memorandum from Pakistani President Zardari to Admiral Mullen, when he was US Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff. The Washington Post published the text of the memo whose authenticity, on a prima facie basis, is established by the ambassador's request to resign.

The memo describes a "significant deterioration in Pakistan's political atmosphere, after the US raid that killed Usama bin Laden in Abbottabad last May. The elected civilian government feared a military overthrow, led by Chief of Army Staff, General Kayani and the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate.

The memo text says that Zardari asked for Mullen's intervention with Kayani to prevent a military takeover of government. In return, Zardari promised to "revamp" his government with a new national security team of pro-American officials in return for Mullen's intervention and made six additional representations.

The six additional promises include an independent investigation of bin Laden's presence in Pakistan; identification by name of those officers who harbored bin Laden followed by their dismissal and arrest; a commitment to hand over to US authorities bin Laden's deputy Zawahiri, plus Mullah Omar and Pakistani Taliban leader Sirajuddin Haqqani or permission for independent US operations to kill them; an offer to enlarge US oversight of the security of Pakistani nuclear weapons; the elimination of Section S of Inter-Services Intelligence which is the section that maintains contact with the Taliban and the Haqqani network; and to cooperate fully with India to bring to justice the perpetrators, inside or outside the government, responsible for the 2008 Mumbai massacre.

Several points are worth noting. Most important is that Zardari and Prime Minister Gilani's government are afraid of the Pakistan armed forces to such an extent that they would ask for American assistance to prevent a coup, however misdirected.

The Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, is legally a military advisor and chairman of the board of senior service staff officers. He also has a dual responsibility to report as a Congressional watchdog of the state of the armed services and has no authority independently to commit the US to anything. Zardari evidently did not appreciate the subtleties of the Chairman's task. Mullen could not and would not do such a thing without presidential authority.

Secondly, Zardari and Gilan appear to know or have a good idea about the identity of military personnel who harbored bin Laden.

Thirdly, Zardari and Gilani were prepared to hand over to the US or permit the US to kill other hostile leaders, including Zawahiri and Mullah Omar. This suggests they know or at least knew where these men were hiding at the time the memo was written.

Finally, the civilians distrusted the Pakistan Army and security forces to such an extent that they were willing to grant to the US exceptional oversight of Pakistani nuclear weapons. This condition of distrust has not changed and is likely to worsen.

What is missing from this unusual story is any account of the US reaction to and handling of the Memo. Mullen has flown to Pakistan frequently and no coup occurred, but the five other items are open. Civilian government in Pakistan remains both incompetent and fragile, plus under constant threat of military overthrow.

[ramana]

While the traditional view would be a TSPA coup was stopped, looks like duspercenti was offering a coup against the TSPA! Since it did not happen HH is being bakrafied. All losses end up in paying some price.

Also very good insight in how US thinks about TSP power centers. The TSPA is more valuable than the civilians as shown by their apparent inaction to the offer in the memo.

[shiv]

While the traditional view would be a TSPA coup was stopped, looks like duspercenti was offering a coup against the TSPA! Since it did not happen HH is being bakrafied. All losses end up in paying some price.

Also very good insight in how US thinks about TSP power centers. The TSPA is more valuable than the civilians as shown by their apparent inaction to the offer in the memo.

Parthasarathy noted on TV yesterday that the issue would not make it to the US's Foreign Policy mag without being cleared at the highest level - so it may not be all bluff. The US may have warned off a coup in private. There were rumors in the media of a coup back then IIRC

But I just wonder if the release of this information now is actually a warning to the Paki army? It puts the Paki army in a "heads you lose, tails we win" situation. If the conduct a coup it proves that the memo was on the right track. if they don't conduct a coup nothing changes but suspicions persist. And Zardari gets clen way. One possibility is that Zardari could get bumped off sometime down the line.

[svinayak]

If Pakistan Splinters…' – Indian Defense Affairs Writer Imagines Consequences of Pakistan's Break-Up

Pakistan's map and likely consequences of its breakup (Image courtesy: indiandefencereview.com)
In a recent article, noted Indian military affairs writer Bharat Verma imagined the likely consequences of Pakistan's break-up for China, Afghanistan, India, and the United States. In the article titled "If Pakistan Splinters…," he also argued that Pakistan's break-up will be beneficial for pro-democracy forces and will weaken the Islamic terrorism led by Sunni Muslims.
Bharat Verma, a former cavalry officer, is an author of several books on Indian defence issues and Editor of the Indian Defence Review magazine.

Following are excerpts from the article:[1]
"The Chinese will Suffer A Major Setback If Dysfunctional Pakistan Splinters in the Near Future"
"If Pakistan splinters, it will hit the biggest stakeholder and benefactor - China. In order to safeguard its strategic interests, Beijing will make every endeavor to prevent the breakup of Pakistan, even to the extent of military intervention in support of the Pakistan Army."
"The Chinese will suffer a major setback if dysfunctional Pakistan splinters in the near future.
"Many Malaysian Muslims will hasten to tell you that their country should not be compared to Pakistan. Or the migrant Muslims in West Asia (Middle East), while introducing themselves, take pains to assert that they are Muslims from India and not Pakistan.
"Serious contradictions within Pakistan have pushed it into the pit of despair from where it is almost impossible to recover. It is reported that many young Pakistanis are repudiating Islam out of sheer frustration and converting to other religions.
"Possibly, the majority of the Pakistan’s dominant community - Punjabi Sunni Muslims living in their isolated world of self-destruction - do not realize the damage they are doing to Islam.
"Pakistan appears to be hurtling towards self-destruction."

"Beijing Treats Pakistan As an Extension of Its War Machine and a Surrogate Colony"
"Beijing treats Pakistan as an extension of its war machine and a surrogate colony. The likely breakup of Pakistan in the near future will stall [the] expanding Chinese footprints.
"Impaired Pakistan is a cause of deep worry for Beijing, since Islamabad’s capability to tie-down India by launching terrorist attacks will also suffer.

"If Pakistan splinters, there will be enormous gains for India.
"PoK [Pakistani Occupied Kashmir] will revert back to the Indian fold and peace will prevail. This is the singular reason for the Chinese to move their troops into PoK. The strategy is two-fold: First, occupy or gain influence over as much occupied Indian Territory as possible, in case Pakistan breaks up, and second, to keep up the pressure on India's borders since Pakistan is no position to do the same, given its present internal disarray. Further, China does not want India to be emboldened to mount an attack on Pakistan, which is already gasping for oxygen."
"Fragmented Pakistan will Lessen the Heavy Financial Burden Placed on India’s Economy with Drastic Reduction in the Security Apparatus"

"With the break-up of Pakistan, [Pakistani military's Inter-Services Intelligence] ISI activities like export of fake Indian currency and infiltration of terrorists through Nepal will cease. Anti-India rabblerousing by ISI-inspired elements in Bangladesh against India will no longer be possible.
"The Union of India’s consolidation and integration as a nation will get a new fillip, as the distraction created by Pakistan in the name of religion is eliminated.
"India will then be able to concentrate on the principal threat posed by China.
"Fragmented Pakistan will lessen the heavy financial burden placed on India’s economy with drastic reduction in the security apparatus. This will enable young India to make rapid economic strides that can outpace ageing China in a short span of time."
"The West Led By America is Losing the Plot in Afghanistan Because the Problem is the Pakistan Army and Its Irregular Forces Led By General Kayani"

"Similarly, colossal gains accrue to the West if Pakistan splinters.
"The West led by America is losing the plot in Afghanistan because the problem is the Pakistan Army and its Irregular Forces led by General [Ashfaq Pervez] Kayani.
"Washington was forced to admit recently this worst-kept secret, when its supply routes to Afghanistan were snapped by GHQ Rawalpindi [i.e. the headquarters of Pakistan Army] and NATO convoys carrying fuel to Afghanistan were conveniently torched by the ISI-controlled Ghost Army of Jihad with impunity.

"American attempts to unhook Pakistan from China will continue to fail despite dangling the carrot of modern weapons and technology, as Islamabad’s strategic dependency on Beijing is now irreversible.
"The 'real estate' of Pakistan was created so that the West could monitor and manipulate the former Soviet Union, China, and India."
"Afghanistan will Gradually Witness Unhindered Growth of Democracy; the Spoilers, the Pakistan Army and the ISI, would Have Disappeared"
"However, if Pakistan falls apart, Sindh, which has very strong democratic yearning, is certain to charter its own independent path but in consonance with the Indian value system.
"Independent Baluchistan with its rich resources will definitely stand against the Chinese, who in conjunction with Islamabad are exploiting its resources. Denial of [access to the] Gwadar port will preclude the Chinese Navy from the warm waters of the Indian Ocean and direct access to West Asia.
"Afghanistan will gradually witness unhindered growth of democracy; the spoilers, the Pakistan Army and the ISI would have disappeared.

"Therefore, democracies will find many friendly places to operate from and access to the resources of Central Asia to the mutual benefit of all players."
"Two Authoritarian Streams, Chinese Communism and Islamic Fundamentalism, in Combination or Otherwise, Threaten the Survival of Democracies in Asia"
"The biggest gain for the democracies will be that China’s expanding authoritarian influence will be sharply curtailed. Also the Jihad fervor being orchestrated in this part of the world [i.e. in South Asia] by the Punjabi Sunnis will die a natural death due to fatigue and lack of resources.
"The spread of two authoritarian streams, Chinese communism and the Islamic fundamentalism, in combination or otherwise, threaten the survival of democracies in Asia.
"If Pakistan splinters, one of the threats will be substantially neutralized.
"This in turn will make Central Asia a safer place where Pakistan aims to attain strategic depth with the help of Islamic fundamentalists.
"If Pakistan splinters, Sinkiang in China will face renewed instability and the Chinese flank in occupied Tibet will come under severe pressure."
"The Power of the Shias will Increase, Thus Creating a Balance with Some of the Sunni Sects That are Mainly Responsible for Terrorist Acts Worldwide"
"With independent Sindh and Baluchistan, the Chinese supply lines from Gwadar would not be possible. This will force China to revert to 'peaceful rise' instead of laying claim to territory or islands of other nations.

"The power of the Shias will increase, thus creating a balance with some of the Sunni sects that are mainly responsible for terrorist acts worldwide. Two successive British Prime Ministers have stated [that] Pakistan accounts for 75 percent of all such acts.
"If Pakistan splinters, this percentage will drop to abysmal levels.
"Most often remarks on Pakistan are prefaced by, 'Just like you Indians cannot live with Pakistan...'
"This premise is false. An average Indian can live with Pakistan, as long as Islamabad does not interfere in internal affairs or connive against India. It is irrelevant whether India dialogues, trades, or maintains diplomatic relations with Pakistan; growth of the Indian economy or the growing status of India is not even remotely connected to the failure or success of Islamabad."
"The 'Pakistan Story' Failed Because of the Inherent Flaws in the Values Professed; The 'Indian Story' Shows Success Because of Its Belief in Secular Democratic Values"

"The 'Pakistan Story' failed because of the inherent flaws in the values professed and not because of 'Kashmir'! The 'Indian Story' shows success because of its belief in secular democratic values.
"The truth therefore is that 'Pakistan cannot live with India.' The converse is absolutely preposterous.
"If Pakistan splinters, it will hit the biggest stakeholder and benefactor China. In order to safeguard its strategic interests, Beijing therefore will make every endeavor to prevent the breakup of Pakistan, even to the extent of military intervention in support of the Pakistan Army.
"If Pakistan splinters, forces led by Barak Obama will win. On the contrary, if China is successful in its intervention, authoritarian regimes will hold sway in Asia.
"Who wins the Great Game in Asia will depend on the finesse with which the cards are dealt by the contending sides."

Endnote:
[1] http://www.indiandefencereview.com (India), September 24, 2011. The text of the article has been lightly edited for clarity.

[RajeshA]

^^^

The map would not look like this. North Baluchistan would go to the Pushtuns. There will be a fight for Karachi between MQM, Sindhis, and Pushtuns.

But that is beside the point. The point is that Indian authors have started talking about it, and it is a good alternative line to what Shri Bharat Karnad has been peddling lately.

Original Article from Bharat Verma in IDR

Published on Sep 24, 2011
By Bharat Verma
If Pakistan splinters...: Indian Defence Review

[chaanakya]

^^
Is there any possibility of divion of Pakjab in north and south pakjab? What are the faultlines existing there?
I also think part of NWFP should come along with POK to India.
Then we can refine maps to a greater extent.

[RajeshA]

chaanakya ji,

How Pakistan splinters would depend on the strategy used and the circumstances. They want to make Seraikistan is new province. Would it become a province before the splintering, that is one variable. Another is whether there it is externally forced or whether it is an internal implosion like the Soviet Union. Third is whether there are border wars between the various splinters. Fourth is whether the provinces are willing to give up parts of them to the other where there are ethnic minorities. And so on!

I think Districts like Chitral, Northeast Mansehra, Kohistan, North Swat, Upper Dir from Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa should come to India, so that our bridge to Afghanistan is broader.

Secondly I think we should take over Tharparkar and Thatta District of Sindh, perhaps offering them a alternative water canal from the Western rivers instead. This is important because we do not want to be dependent on any major ethnic group from "former-Pakistan" in the future for our land access to West Asia.

Thirdly we should try to make "Greater Karachi" independent of Sindh. Let it become a little Muslim City State outside India but with some Indian political cover over it.

Fourthly Baluchistan (without the Pushtun part) should be a state completely within the Indian Union just like any other state in India. Baluchistan under Baluchis would not be sustainable because of the pressure from Iranians, Punjabis, Chinese, Americans, Pushtun, etc. In order to be stable it needs to be part of India, preferably without the stupid Article 370 provisions about Indians buying property there or living there, etc.

What would be more acceptable would be if the Sindhis and the Seraikis are brought together into one state. There is a certain ethnic proximity in them. Moreover it is PPP stronghold. They may like to consolidate their stronghold, thereby also letting Tharparkar, Thatta and Karachi go from under their control.

Just a few cents.

[member_20317]

The US can't take down Pakistan. They have the penchant for attacking the wrong country. Pakistan is the right country.

"America will always do the right thing - but only after having exhausted all other possibilities" Winston Churchill

US was supportive of Anti-India everything till we grew stronger.
US was supportive of a strong Pakistan till it got bombed.
.
.
.
US is allied to Pakistan in the WOT till...
.
.
.
US will attack Pakistan once...

[RajeshA]

X-Posting from TIRP Thread

If Pakistan Splinters…' – Indian Defense Affairs Writer Imagines Consequences of Pakistan's Break-Up

During the past four - five months, despite my travels, I have been thinking along the same lines (hence, my low contribution rate to BRF). My conclusions are similar except for the following changes. Of course, devil's in the details (and all those caveats).

Suggested Changes:

1. PoK: Instead of the entire PoK merging with India, there should be three divisions. Chinese part stays with China (let's be practical). Create a Vatican-style "Kashmir" around Muzzafarabad. The Kashmiri seccessionists can happily be "relocated" here. The rest of PoK (especially around Mirpur and south) to merge with India's Jammu region. Allow Indians to settle in these newly liberated areas.

2. Separate Jammu and Laddakh from J&K to create a new state called J&L (or whatever).

3. Remainder of Indian Kashmir including the valley becomes a Union Territory with a Governor.


PakJab::

1. The Seraiki areas should be separated from Pakjab and granted independence.

2. Remaining Pakjab (especially around Islamabad/Pindi and Lahore, be renamed as New Pakistan. All die hard pakistanis that no one wants are welcome to live in this land locked country. This new country will have an army and police but no air force (only an army air wing). It will also act as a buffer between the Pashtun Afghans and India.

Sindh

1. Tharparkar and Hindu majority areas up to the Sindh River be merged with India (and not remain part of Independent Sindh Desh).

2. Hyderabad will be the capital.

3. Karachi? Working on it.

Balochistan

1. Some parts that are contigious to neighboring states and have similar ethnic populations be given to Iran and Afghanistan.

[RajeshA]

If Pakistan Splinters…' – Indian Defense Affairs Writer Imagines Consequences of Pakistan's Break-Up

During the past four - five months, despite my travels, I have been thinking along the same lines (hence, my low contribution rate to BRF). My conclusions are similar except for the following changes. Of course, devil's in the details (and all those caveats).

Suggested Changes:

1. PoK: Instead of the entire PoK merging with India, there should be three divisions. Chinese part stays with China (let's be practical). Create a Vatican-style "Kashmir" around Muzzafarabad. The Kashmiri seccessionists can happily be "relocated" here. The rest of PoK (especially around Mirpur and south) to merge with India's Jammu region. Allow Indians to settle in these newly liberated areas.

2. Separate Jammu and Laddakh from J&K to create a new state called J&L (or whatever).

3. Remainder of Indian Kashmir including the valley becomes a Union Territory with a Governor.

It is the Gilgit-Baltistan region that is strategically important. First those regions should be included into the J&K State and through this inclusion, Article 370 can be rescinded.

I suggested the following.

So the 24 seats that are reserved for PoK, they should be divided up into those for Gilgitians and Baltistanis on the one hand, and the Hindu and Sikh refugees from "Azad Kashmir" living in India, as representatives of all "Azad Kashmiris" who could not be present to avail of their seats.

With the 24 Seats for Gilgitians & Baltistanis and Hindus from "Azad Kashmir", 37 Seats from Jammu, and 4 Seats from Ladakh, there would be 65 non-Kashmiri Seats in the Assembly, just 9 short of a two-thirds majority required to change the J&K Constitution. With the help of Gujjars and other pro-Indian elements from Kashmir, it would become possible to change the J&K Constitution even, doing away with Article 370 etc, regardless of what the Kashmiris say.

PakJab::

1. The Seraiki areas should be separated from Pakjab and granted independence.

Or they could be given to Sindh?! PPP has a big following between both Sindhis and Seraikis. Thus it will be easier to talk the Sindhis into parting with Tharparkar, Thatta and Karachi.

Or they can be given independence - an independent Seraikistan state!

The problem with this is that it does not create a hard hostile boundary between Pakjab and some lower lying country (Sindh/Seraikistan)! Sindh would allow trade with Seraikistan and Seraikistan would allow trade with Pakjab. What we would want is for Pakjab to feel totally cut off from the sea and the world.

2. Remaining Pakjab (especially around Islamabad/Pindi and Lahore, be renamed as New Pakistan. All die hard pakistanis that no one wants are welcome to live in this land locked country. This new country will have an army and police but no air force (only an army air wing). It will also act as a buffer between the Pashtun Afghans and India.

The name Pakistan should be banned altogether. It should become history. The region should be called West Punjab.

When such big changes occur, there is no need to concede anything to Pakistani nationalists. As long as the name Pakistan endures, its inhabitants would latch on to the old ideology, and again go on with their expansionist agenda.

Sindh

1. Tharparkar and Hindu majority areas up to the Sindh River be merged with India (and not remain part of Independent Sindh Desh).

Tharparkar AND Thatta Districts should come to India.

2. Hyderabad will be the capital.

3. Karachi? Working on it.

Karachi, Jamshoro District and Hyderabad should become Mohajirstan.

Balochistan

1. Some parts that are contigious to neighboring states and have similar ethnic populations be given to Iran and Afghanistan.

Why this generosity? If there is some place that should be part of India, demographically, geographically, geologically, geo-strategically then it is Baluchistan!

Baluchistan was part of the British India. Why can it not be a part of India again?!

[RajeshA]

Originally posted by pgbhat

Published on Nov 25, 2011
By M.J. Akbar
Pakistan's Toxic Brotherhood: India Today

Fear of uncertainty is less than half the story in Pakistan. An increasing number of influential Pakistanis are being driven abroad by the certainty of fundamentalist violence and the danger to their lives. Najam Sethi, the well-known journalist, now edits his Lahore-based newspaper from America. He is on the hit list of those who killed the former governor of Punjab, Salman Taseer. Sherry Rehman, named as Haqqani's replacement, will be far safer in Washington than Karachi. She has courageously championed the cause of minorities being persecuted by fundamentalists. The palpable fear among the thin crust which remains sane and liberal in an increasingly beleaguered nation is not fear of Talibanisation in next door Afghanistan but the Talibanisation of Pakistan.

The exodus of the RAPE picking up pace!

[pgbhat]

^ In the latest "aapas ki baat" episode, Jihadi Sethi confirms that Sherry is pro-army and is close to Groper. She will be reading out of script provided by the Jernails. The latest policy report from Jinnah Institute (Headed by Sherry) is basically disseminating the Army's view point.

[ramana]

Kudos to Anujan for his profound discovery!

[ramana]

RajeshA, Recall my Kabila model and the TSPA as the kabila guards? Well I was reading a book on evolution of political order by Francis Fukuyama. One of the points he makes is the change from tribes to states and how in a tribe the military enforcers get primacy and he gives example of how the janissaries were the backbone of the Ottomans. He also remarks that the Ottoman Sultan decided that the jannissaris were an impediment and had them routed in 1823.
My remark is by 100 years they weren't there any more>

So the key is TSP is till a tribal society due to history and adoption of Islam. The move to a more cohesive state from tribal milieu will have its consequences.

Another insight I got was TSPA is like the janissaries of the Ottomans. The Ottomans used to levy the Christians boys as military slaves as they needed utter loyalty to the Sultan and the state. The TSPA recruits are not military slaves like before but recruits into the system and provide the iron frame to keep the state running just as in Ottomon times. If so they are the source of Ottoman type of stasis for TSP.

[partha]

^ In the latest "aapas ki baat" episode, Jihadi Sethi confirms that Sherry is pro-army and is close to Groper. She will be reading out of script provided by the Jernails. The latest policy report from Jinnah Institute (Headed by Sherry) is basically disseminating the Army's view point.

Yeah, appointment of Ejaz Haider makes so much sense.

[RajeshA]

ramana garu,

In a (in-)security-heavy state with considerable poverty, TSPA would always be able to get recruits, because TSPA is in a position to corner for itself the meat of the resources of the state, and thus able to present itself as the recruiter of choice and promise for the masses. Considering that "Iman, Taqwa, Jihad fi Sabilillah" is their ideology, of course the people too would adjust their mental frame to align with that ideology. The ideology is crucial to be part of the biggest/surest recruiter in the state.

As such an economic weakening of Pakistani state would hit Pakistani Army the last, and till it fragments, its importance as a safe bet for a job would only increase.

Fragmentation of Army power is a welcome sign even if the recruitment is occurring for other tanzeems. It shows that the monopoly of the Army as the main recruiter is crumbling. The problem for India is that these recruiters are themselves in the throes of Islamism and anti-India hate.

This is where Indian money power can come in. For it is possible to create these tanzeem-like organizations but with a different tilt - be it organized crime, drugs, smuggling, kidnapping, "marriage bureaus", feudal security agencies, food hoarding, or the like. In fact setting up even groups like TTP which is anti-Army would also help. Important is that India controls the leadership of these orgs and can avail of their services when needed, and that the activity of these orgs work to lessen the grip of the Kabila guards over administration and society.

An India-controlled fragmentation of TSPA monopoly as the main recruiter should be the aim. We need to break the Kabila monopoly and the net anti-Indian orientation of the other fragments.

[ramana]

will reply to your comments. That is the goal and the method is the transition of tribal group to a state in other words the kabila settles down. Now understand Zardari's offer to reduce the TSPA primacy and its refusal by US in this light.

Another insight on whats happening in TSP can be read from Beatrix Potter's "A tale of two bad mice" written in 1904. In it two mice thinking that play food in a miniature doll house is real, enter it, and find out its not. In rage they trash the place and become a nuisance.

Same way TSP suars found Pakistan is not the Jannat they thought and are trashing it.

[svinayak]

Same way TSP found Partition is not the Jannat they thought and are trashing it.

References to name 'India' and also Pak having the same Indian food, Indian culture etc are due to acceptance of India as the global icon. and Indian identity has finally won over competition.

They may want to sneak in Moghul culture and other islamic icons and India has to throw them away. Pak cannot sustain the old image for the west any more (anti-Islam) and they dont have a soft image.
They have to fall in line with Indian soft image.

[johneeG]

will reply to your comments. That is the goal and the method is the transition of tribal group to a state in other words the kabila settles down. Now understand Zardari's offer to reduce the TSPA primacy and its refusal by US in this light.

Another insight on whats happening in TSP can be read from Beatrix Potter's "A tale of tw bad mice" written in 1904. In it two mice thinking that play food in a miniature doll house is real enter it and find out its not. In rage they trash the place and become a nuisance. Same way TSP found Partition is not the Jannat they thought and are trashing it.

Ramana Garu,
could it be that partition was temporary hedge i.e. a launching pad for further jihads on India? And pakis failed in this mission...so far. The only plan was, perhaps, to retake India and live like moghals.

[svinayak]

Pak was created to build a reservoir of Islamic jihad and Islamic centers which will spread throughout the rest of the sub continent. This was carefully nurtured by UK and west for the last 60 years.
But this is not the end of the story yet. It is all about demographics

[SBajwa]

Pakistan's failure meant that all we need to manage is our own fears!!! Pakistan failure is a GOOD THING!!

1. Defeat Pakistan.
2. Ban Islam in Pakistan due to the radical nature of its followers.

that's it!!!

Islam does not have that much substance that its followers will keep it alive., in its entire history Islam was never forcefully subdued!! it needs to be forcefully put down and whole world will live in peace!!!

[SBajwa]

Muslims of Pakistan are cowards just like the dogs who bark a lot but have no teeth!! all they need is a big kick on their butts and everything will fall in place.

[johneeG]

Muslims of Pakistan are cowards just like the dogs who bark a lot but have no teeth!! all they need is a big kick on their butts and everything will fall in place.

it makes sense. The pakis were once hindu. Those hindus who were defeated and broken down by the new creed, converted. So, they became what they are today due to lathi, and they can be reformed when the danda is used.

Masses are malleable once the elite are dealt with. Cut the head of the snake...

[RajeshA]

Published on Nov 27, 2011
Train traffic restored after tracks repair: The News (Pk)

NAWABSHAH: Railway department, by repairing the up and down link rail tracks damaged by five explosions in a row near Hyderabad, Nawabshah and Mehrabpur railway stations, has restored the trains traffic, Geo News reported.

Sindh Liberation Army has accepted the responsibility of explosions on the tracks.

It may be recalled that several trains narrowly escaped from tragic mishaps due to the blasts blowing up rail tracks.

Law enforcing agencies reaching the scene have started their respective actions.

Sindh Liberation Army seems to be the new kid on the block!

[Altair]

Sindh Liberation Army has accepted the responsibility of explosions on the tracks.

It may be recalled that several trains narrowly escaped from tragic mishaps due to the blasts blowing up rail tracks.

Sindh Liberation Army seems to be the new kid on the block!

I would ask RAW and RAAM to establish a channel between BLA and SLA for coordinating attacks and sharing resources. That would double the lethality and reduce the strain on resources.
BLA is ecstasic after their audacious and successful attack last week which killed over 50 pakis. SLA want to pull off even better.

[ramana]

Looks like massa is adopting Sir Charles Napiers' slogan "Peccavi!"

"I have sinned(Sind)!"

[ramana]

Nightwatch comments on the NATO helicopter attack. He thinks the TSPA was playing both sides in this.

Pakistan-US: Comment: The news accounts are reasonably consistent that a NATO helicopter attack killed two dozen or more Pakistani paramilitary forces. The NATO account insists that Pakistani officers cooperated in the attack. Another story says that Afghan officers called in the air attack, which occurred inside Pakistan's Mohmand Agency. Another account says US forces were far into Pakistani national territory.

The Torkham border crossing, near Peshawar in northwestern Pakistan, has been closed to truck traffic to Afghanistan. The border crossing point at Spin Buldak in the south, evidently, remains open. The Islamabad government has ordered the CIA to vacate a remote air base that is used for drone attacks but supposedly had been ordered to vacate six months ago.

None of that matters much. All of it is for public consumption because the Pakistani civilian government and military leadership are involved in some fashion. This incident will be covered up. None of the stake holders perceive any benefit from making this incident a cause celebre, an international sensation. The logistics supply line for Afghanistan is much less dependent on Pakistani roads than on central Asian railroads.


On the other hand, Pakistani public hostility for the US will spike.