VikramS wrote:
I also wish that the fissures break the cycle and go parabolic. I am not sure whether that will happen if the US cedes. As I have written earlier, I believe that there is much greater chance of TSP following its destiny if the US calls the shots. As Johann put it, the TSPA now draws more mileage from fighting the US than supporting it. If these dynamics continue something will have to give. I just hope it is not the US' will to fight out the TSPA.
I do not believe that the US arms aid to TSP is a game changer; further the kind of arms the TSP is getting are available from other sources. I have requested a detailed analysis of the arms and the impact the US contribution has had but I have not seen one. I presume that it is a tacit admission that at the end of the day the US arms may alter the tactical process but do not affect the strategic balance.
Vikram you ask a lot of questions and every single one of them could do with a one page or a two page reply. And when you say that you have not seen a reply and therefore you consider your viewpoint as being correct - I can only say that you are welcome to hold that viewpoint because what you are using is a rhetorical tactic and not a real quest for an answer. I will reply to that in my own time. American arms have been "game changers" - for India - but your acknowledgement of that is neither necessary nor important. And that makes my response temporally unimportant. I am unable to put the facts together at a time of your choosing (ie when it is convenient for you to ask, and follow that up with a demand for an answer or else..) - but will do so at a time of my choosing.
But on the topic of what is or is not a "game changer" - my last post ended up as being more "wishful thinking" about what I would like to see. I would like to see the Islamists take over Pakistan and the formation of a Talibanistan for the simple reason is that all Pakistanis are anti-India but Pakistan in its current state gets arms aid from both the US and China. Talibanistan will get arms aid from China alone, and not the US. Items like AMRAAMs, F-16s and Orions will gradually (over a decade or so) lose their clout - and perhaps earlier if the Americans have shown an iota of sense. All these systems are currently superior to anything the Chinese can supply. The west's current technological dominance is as yet unequalled by dreams/nightmares about a future Chinese dominance.
However all this is mere wishful thinking. The US has no intention of overseeing the creation of shiv's Talibanistan if it can be helped. If the Islamism of the Taliban seeks to unify the Muslim people in Pakistan under a possible wahhabandi banner the US is utilizing every trick in the book to oppose that. The US is identifying people within the Pakistani army and establishment whom the US believes will bend to American pressure or be amenable to working for the US. It is these people who receive the arms and funds. As regards the Pakistani army - I believe that the Pakarmy has always shown a "moderate face" to the US while hiding an Islamist core. In the past this actually had the US fooled (an easy enough thing to do given the US's propensity to print more dollars and throw them at any problem). But in recent days there is a glimmer of hope that he US is beginning to realise that they have been made jackasses by the Pakistan army.
But the US does not respond to being made a jackass in the way one would expect. The US continues to play the game. The US takes the gamble of supplying and bribing the double-dealing Pakistani army with money and weapons because the US sees this as a gamble with a fair chance of success. At the very least, "success" can be defined as seriously delaying the unification/power sought by the Taliban/Islamists and the maintenance of a pro-US core in Pakistan that will maintain a split in Pakistani society. Some Pakistanis can see this clearly and they hate it, but there are those who do work for the US in Pakistan.
It can be argued that US arms to Pakistan are a danger to the US as well. Absolutely - those arms do pose a risk to the US and its own western allies, but I do not see it as my duty to warn the US of actions that might harm Americans. I am only bothered about US actions that may harm Indians and want to see an end to that. That will not end other problems faced by Indians - each will have to be dealt with in its own right as a separate issue. But on the level of simple logic - 50 F-16s in Pakistan hands is a number that constitutes about 1/14th of the size of the IAF (700 combat aircraft) but the same 50 is only 1/60 the size of the US Air Forces (about 3000 combat aircraft). The proportional threat is higher to India and is smaller for the US. Nevertheless the US does gamble on Pakistan in order to win over and keep some Pakistanis as allies. The fact that this harms Indian interest is of little consequence to the US in its larger game plan. I must reiterate that it offends me deeply to see Indians being "understanding" of the larger US game plan and insensitive to Indian issues. That is MUTU at its best. But I am repeating myself and will do that again and again.
To me, with my impotence in having any impact on US actions in arming and bribing Pakistan, and with little hope of seeing my view of Talibanistan come to fruition, the next step would be try try and game out what the US is likely to achieve with its current game plan in Pakistan.
Clearly the US is creating one more rift in Pakistan which is in addition to all the other "traditional fissures" in Pakistani society. The "traditional fissures" were mainly ethnic and linguistic (Pakjabi versus others) and partly sectarian (Ahmedi/Shia) . Every one of these fissures was trumped by a hatred of India and an allegiance to Islam. That in fact was the basis of the creation of Pakistan. The Islamization of Pakistan was in direct response to the loss of Bangladesh, but it was aggravated by the cold war and the idiocy of the anti-Indian Paki amy under Zia who played the US game in Afghanistan. The US gleefully supported the Islamists/Taliban and ignored the fallout on India until 9-11. More than anyone else it is the US that has shown a 180 degree turn in policy. The US now says it opposes the Taliban. The US is claiming in public that it used to support Pakistan and that the US regrets that it left Pakistan after the cold war, and that the US will now be loyal to Pakistan in the long term. However - Pakistan in the meantime has been Islamized to a great extent. I think the meaning of "islamization" is lost on many.
Pakistan had a population of 70 million in 1974. In 2009, 35 years later the population was 170 million. That means 100 million people exist in Pakistan today who are 35 years or less in age. That vast majority of them are uneducated. The little education that they have has been acquired in madarsas - and even if they have not been taught to maim and kill they have certainly not been taught to love India or kafirs in general. It is these under 35s who form the bulk of the Pakistan army and irregular jihadi forces and the junior to middle ranking officer cadre of the army. These are the people who are receiving American and Chinese arms aid. All can be expected to be anti-India. A few will be anti-US. Almost none are currently anti-China. It is the senior officer - the over 45s who saw the 1971 war in their lives who have made Pakistan a nuclear power. Those nuclear arms will be inherited by the under 35s of today. Exactly which way these under-35s will tilt is difficult to tell, but it is unlikely to be pro India or pro-US. I predict that some will soon become anti-China as well
but that is debatable. It is important to stop giving these people free arms. Let them learn to work and earn money to pay someone for arms.
As I see it the US is ostensibly supporting democracy in Pakistan and is asking India to support that as well. But in the background the US is keeping the Pakistan army bribed and happy as long as the Pakarmy does some fighting in Waziristan. The Paki army milks the US for that, but it is not a one-way milking. The Pakistani army is genuinely being opposed by some Pakistanis as being a US lackey. The Pakistani army tries to fight this image by saying that their opponents are Indian agents or foreign agents - so things are in a flux right now. But as long as the US helps the Pakistan army the chances of Pakistan splitting into Baluchistan and Pashtunistan are low because the US supports the unity and integrity of Pakistan the nation.
Will stop now.