Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2011

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Dipanker
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by Dipanker »

vijayk wrote:
I wonder what would be Ombaba's reaction if some idiot in Puke land takes law into his own hands and harms this guy. Will he be advised by Kerry et al to increase the aid or will they dare to do something severe against the Pukes?

It will be more like giving even more $$, Dems made the wrong choice in the primaries and now they are paying for it both domestically and internationally.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by Vivek_A »

Obama has been a complete disappointment. Hillary or McCain wouldn't let this stand.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by Rangudu »

Vivek_A wrote:Obama has been a complete disappointment. Hillary or McCain wouldn't let this stand.
I'd agree but this was exactly as I expected from BO. Professorial types don't usually make good leaders. Obama reminds me of the saying:
If you don't stand for something, you'll fall for anything
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by Vivek_A »

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/22/world ... nted=print
Several American and Pakistani officials said that the C.I.A. team in Lahore with which Mr. Davis worked was tasked with tracking the movements of various Pakistani militant groups, including Lashkar-e-Taiba, a particularly violent group that Pakistan uses as a proxy force against India but that the United States considers a threat to allied troops in Afghanistan. For the Pakistanis, such spying inside their country is an extremely delicate issue, particularly since Lashkar has longstanding ties to Pakistan’s intelligence service, the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence, or ISI.

Still, American and Pakistani officials use Lahore as a base of operations to investigate the militant groups and their madrasas in the surrounding area.

The officials gave various accounts of the makeup of the covert team and of Mr. Davis, who at the time of his arrest was carrying a Glock pistol, a long-range wireless set, a small telescope and a headlamp. An American and a Pakistani official said in interviews that operatives from the Pentagon’s Joint Special Operations Command had been assigned to the group to help with the surveillance missions. Other American officials, however, said that no military personnel were involved with the team.

Special operations troops routinely work with the C.I.A. in Pakistan. Among other things, they helped the agency pinpoint the location of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the deputy Taliban commander who was arrested in January 2010 in Karachi.

Even before his arrest, Mr. Davis’s C.I.A. affiliation was known to Pakistani authorities, who keep close tabs on the movements of Americans. His visa, presented to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in late 2009, describes his job as a “regional affairs officer,” a common job description for officials working with the agency.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by A_Gupta »

Vivek_A wrote:Obama has been a complete disappointment. Hillary or McCain wouldn't let this stand.
And George Bush was doing what? This is an American institutional group-think that transcends personalities and political parties.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by Vivek_A »

A_Gupta wrote:
And George Bush was doing what? This is an American institutional group-think that transcends personalities and political parties.
Can you tell us of a similar situation in which GWB waffled? GUBO under Armitage first happened under GWB. TSP first sent it's forces into the tribal areas under a GUBO thread from GWB.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by Vivek_A »

Earth-e-shaster analyzes the situation...and someone from shrill's outfit comes up with the brilliant conclusion that drone strikes were halted because they got Davis.

http://www.pakobserver.net/detailnews.asp?id=77104
US attempt to secure release of Davis
Tanvir Siddiqi

Islamabad—The United States has halted drone attacks in FATA in an apparent attempt to secure the release of the jailed U.S. national Raymond Davis charged with murder of two Pakistanis in Lahore.

After months of frequent strikes by unmanned U.S. aircraft on militant hideouts in tribal areas on Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan, where bloodshed has hit record levels, reports of covert strikes have gone quiet for over three weeks.

According to analysts, Washington has stopped the attacks to avoid further inflaming anti-American fury in Pakistan just as it mounts pressure on Islamabad to release Raymond Davis, whose real nature of job is under consideration of the Foreign Ministry which has asked the trial court to give it three weeks time to determine whether he enjoys blanket immunity.

“This in itself raises a number of questions regarding the U.S. Pakistan strategy as it struggles to balance counter terrorism ... with its public diplomacy,” said Simbal Khan, an analyst with the Institute of Strategic Studies in Islamabad.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by CRamS »

A_Gupta wrote: And George Bush was doing what? This is an American institutional group-think that transcends personalities and political parties.
When you come up with gems like that, you get rewarded through CRamS's acknowledgment & kudos :-).

From time to time, I tune into MSNBC, the only news channel I watch in some detail if at all, and once in a while, Lawrence O'Donnel has some really smart liberal intellectuals. The thinking about BO is building up among liberals is that BO does not believe in any core value that he will to stand up & fight for, he is just happy to be president and go along with bogus compromises. Thus, on foreign policy, and TSP in particular, there is no way he will challenge the likes of Gates, Hilary, Mullen etc. He is following the same policies as that of Billy "BJ" Clinton, and the general institutional, systemic India TSP equal equal policy that has been in place since cold war, subject of course to minor perturbations here & there.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by Prem »

Wonder if any Poak in massaland try to do Paki thing to save H&D pain caused by Mr. Ray-chand Dev-is an potentailly lead to the end of Poakers as we know of .
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by ArmenT »

Anyone watching CIA Confidential on Nat Geo Channel in the US. They were detailing the capture of Abu Zubeidah in Pakistan. Program stated during interrogation, the guy named private phone #s of a Saudi royal (nephew to the king) and proudly claimed that a call to him would get him released. He also named two other private phone #s of Saudi royal family members + private phone # of 1 Air chief of Pakistan Air Force and claimed that at least 2 of them knew about Sept. 11th plot.

The three Saudi guys ended up mysteriously dying of heart attack, car crash and thirst in the desert, but they didn't mention what happened to the Paki general. Any idea what happened to him?

[edit]Did some googling. The Paki general was Mushaf Ali Mir and he died in an air-crash near Isloo. Apparently plane had recently passed inspection and weather was clear that day.[/edit]
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by arun »

Dipanker wrote:I am guessing that this official admission that Raymond Davis worked for CIA is part of climbdown strategy adopted by US.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/22/world ... tml?emc=na
American Held in Pakistan Shootings Worked With the C.I.A.
WASHINGTON — The American arrested in Pakistan after shooting two men at a crowded traffic stop was part of a covert, C.I.A.-led team of operatives conducting surveillance on militant groups deep inside the country, according to American government officials.
Looks to me like the US is preparing the grounds to sacrifice trigger happy “US Diplomat” “Raymond Davis” at the altar of the hurt honour and dignity of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.

I guess only time will tell. Wait and watch.
The New York Times had agreed to temporarily withhold information about Mr. Davis’s ties to the agency at the request of the Obama administration, which argued that disclosure of his specific job would put his life at risk. Several foreign news organizations have disclosed some aspects of Mr. Davis’s work with the C.I.A.

On Monday, American officials lifted their request to withhold publication.
Last edited by arun on 22 Feb 2011 06:50, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by Brad Goodman »

Kashmir patch-up to be ‘game-changer’
NEW YORK - A leading US newspaper Monday urged the Obama administration to quietly help India and Pakistan resolve their differences over Afghanistan and Kashmir, saying such a move would be the “biggest game-changer” in the region facing nuclear arms buildup.
“There is a lot the Obama administration can do quietly to press the countries to work to settle differences over Afghanistan and the disputed region of Kashmir,” the New York Times said in an editorial on Monday as it welcomed the decision by Islamabad and New Delhi to resume peace talks.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by CRamS »

I don't think RD will be sacrificed, rather TSP will be spared the tough talk, release him or else to soothe TSP's H&D, and behind the scenes diplomacy will be on to secure his release. I wonder though if he is given 5 star treatment in custody as many of us speculated. If so, then it would be awesome if RAA gets hold of a video tape showing the guboing before him, and setting that tape loose among the Abduls showing the royal treatment meted out to RD, while Kiyani & Co talking tough in public. The should set the Abduls into a tizzy :-).
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by Pranav »

shiv wrote: I put it to you that the only reason why India has pulled through is because of political representation of most, if not all groups.
A dubious assumption.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by arun »

News Agency The Associated Press confirms that “US Diplomat” “Raymond Davis” was working with the CIA:
The Associated Press learned about Davis working for the CIA last month, immediately after the shootings, but withheld publication of the information because it could endanger his life while he was jailed overseas, with at least some protesters there calling for his execution as a spy.

The AP had intended to report Davis' CIA employment after he was out of harm's way, but the story was broken Sunday by The Guardian. The CIA asked The AP and several other U.S. media outlets to hold their stories as the U.S. tried to improve Davis' security situation.
Surely that is RAW and not RAO :wink: :
Davis was attached to the CIA's Global Response Staff, which provides security overseas to agency bases and stations, former and current U.S. officials told the AP. In that role, he was assigned to protect CIA personnel. One of their duties includes protecting case officers when they meet with sources. On the day he was captured, he was familiarizing himself with the area.

"Davis is a protective officer, someone who provides security to U.S. officials in Pakistan," the U.S official said. "Rumors to the contrary are simply wrong."

In a YouTube video of local police interrogating him, Davis says he's a consultant and he's with the "RAO," a reference to the American Regional Affairs Office. Davis also said at one point he was attached to the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad.
Read it all:

AP via Fox News
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by A_Gupta »

Vivek_A wrote:
A_Gupta wrote:
And George Bush was doing what? This is an American institutional group-think that transcends personalities and political parties.
Can you tell us of a similar situation in which GWB waffled? GUBO under Armitage first happened under GWB. TSP first sent it's forces into the tribal areas under a GUBO thread from GWB.
Bush declared Pakistan to be a "major non-NATO ally" and funneled huge sums to Pakistan, even while Mushy & co were executing his treaty of Hudaibiya idea and growing Taliban while Bush's attention was focused on Iraq. Does anyone think that the Taliban active in Afghanistan were invented on Nov 4, 2008 on the day Obama got elected?

Prior to 9/11, Americans were not getting killed, so you can argue that giving money to Pakistan served American interests, somehow. Indians killed, no skin off Uncle Sam's nose.

But 9/11 and beyond it was obvious to almost everyone that American money was being channeled by Pakistan in part to kill American servicemen in Afghanistan - if nothing else.

Even if the memory is gone, google remains. Bush's strategy was bold and non-waffling, really??? Bush should have ended the cycle below - he didn't. This is somehow termed as "Pakistan GUBOing"!!!!!!. Obama continues the same, and you call it waffling. As I said, it is institutional groupthink.

If anything, Americans, including Indian-Americans, should be pissed off at their government for sponsoring the killers of their servicemen and women.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/macgupta/3638466324/
Image
Last edited by A_Gupta on 22 Feb 2011 07:24, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by Sidhant »

Shivji,

While I agree to most of your points and logic. One thing I wanna add is that it is in interest of US that India retains it's nuisance value vis a vis China. Since China is much stronger that pakistan India will have to be stronger than pak if it has to keep it's nuisance value against pakistan. The same is not true in case of China. So China would like India to be decimated and thus would like Pakistan to have the ability to decimate India. So the if the choice is among choosing the lesser evil, I think US is better.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by Airavat »

shiv
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by shiv »

VikramS wrote: I also wish that the fissures break the cycle and go parabolic. I am not sure whether that will happen if the US cedes. As I have written earlier, I believe that there is much greater chance of TSP following its destiny if the US calls the shots. As Johann put it, the TSPA now draws more mileage from fighting the US than supporting it. If these dynamics continue something will have to give. I just hope it is not the US' will to fight out the TSPA.

I do not believe that the US arms aid to TSP is a game changer; further the kind of arms the TSP is getting are available from other sources. I have requested a detailed analysis of the arms and the impact the US contribution has had but I have not seen one. I presume that it is a tacit admission that at the end of the day the US arms may alter the tactical process but do not affect the strategic balance.
Vikram you ask a lot of questions and every single one of them could do with a one page or a two page reply. And when you say that you have not seen a reply and therefore you consider your viewpoint as being correct - I can only say that you are welcome to hold that viewpoint because what you are using is a rhetorical tactic and not a real quest for an answer. I will reply to that in my own time. American arms have been "game changers" - for India - but your acknowledgement of that is neither necessary nor important. And that makes my response temporally unimportant. I am unable to put the facts together at a time of your choosing (ie when it is convenient for you to ask, and follow that up with a demand for an answer or else..) - but will do so at a time of my choosing.

But on the topic of what is or is not a "game changer" - my last post ended up as being more "wishful thinking" about what I would like to see. I would like to see the Islamists take over Pakistan and the formation of a Talibanistan for the simple reason is that all Pakistanis are anti-India but Pakistan in its current state gets arms aid from both the US and China. Talibanistan will get arms aid from China alone, and not the US. Items like AMRAAMs, F-16s and Orions will gradually (over a decade or so) lose their clout - and perhaps earlier if the Americans have shown an iota of sense. All these systems are currently superior to anything the Chinese can supply. The west's current technological dominance is as yet unequalled by dreams/nightmares about a future Chinese dominance.

However all this is mere wishful thinking. The US has no intention of overseeing the creation of shiv's Talibanistan if it can be helped. If the Islamism of the Taliban seeks to unify the Muslim people in Pakistan under a possible wahhabandi banner the US is utilizing every trick in the book to oppose that. The US is identifying people within the Pakistani army and establishment whom the US believes will bend to American pressure or be amenable to working for the US. It is these people who receive the arms and funds. As regards the Pakistani army - I believe that the Pakarmy has always shown a "moderate face" to the US while hiding an Islamist core. In the past this actually had the US fooled (an easy enough thing to do given the US's propensity to print more dollars and throw them at any problem). But in recent days there is a glimmer of hope that he US is beginning to realise that they have been made jackasses by the Pakistan army.

But the US does not respond to being made a jackass in the way one would expect. The US continues to play the game. The US takes the gamble of supplying and bribing the double-dealing Pakistani army with money and weapons because the US sees this as a gamble with a fair chance of success. At the very least, "success" can be defined as seriously delaying the unification/power sought by the Taliban/Islamists and the maintenance of a pro-US core in Pakistan that will maintain a split in Pakistani society. Some Pakistanis can see this clearly and they hate it, but there are those who do work for the US in Pakistan.

It can be argued that US arms to Pakistan are a danger to the US as well. Absolutely - those arms do pose a risk to the US and its own western allies, but I do not see it as my duty to warn the US of actions that might harm Americans. I am only bothered about US actions that may harm Indians and want to see an end to that. That will not end other problems faced by Indians - each will have to be dealt with in its own right as a separate issue. But on the level of simple logic - 50 F-16s in Pakistan hands is a number that constitutes about 1/14th of the size of the IAF (700 combat aircraft) but the same 50 is only 1/60 the size of the US Air Forces (about 3000 combat aircraft). The proportional threat is higher to India and is smaller for the US. Nevertheless the US does gamble on Pakistan in order to win over and keep some Pakistanis as allies. The fact that this harms Indian interest is of little consequence to the US in its larger game plan. I must reiterate that it offends me deeply to see Indians being "understanding" of the larger US game plan and insensitive to Indian issues. That is MUTU at its best. But I am repeating myself and will do that again and again.

To me, with my impotence in having any impact on US actions in arming and bribing Pakistan, and with little hope of seeing my view of Talibanistan come to fruition, the next step would be try try and game out what the US is likely to achieve with its current game plan in Pakistan.

Clearly the US is creating one more rift in Pakistan which is in addition to all the other "traditional fissures" in Pakistani society. The "traditional fissures" were mainly ethnic and linguistic (Pakjabi versus others) and partly sectarian (Ahmedi/Shia) . Every one of these fissures was trumped by a hatred of India and an allegiance to Islam. That in fact was the basis of the creation of Pakistan. The Islamization of Pakistan was in direct response to the loss of Bangladesh, but it was aggravated by the cold war and the idiocy of the anti-Indian Paki amy under Zia who played the US game in Afghanistan. The US gleefully supported the Islamists/Taliban and ignored the fallout on India until 9-11. More than anyone else it is the US that has shown a 180 degree turn in policy. The US now says it opposes the Taliban. The US is claiming in public that it used to support Pakistan and that the US regrets that it left Pakistan after the cold war, and that the US will now be loyal to Pakistan in the long term. However - Pakistan in the meantime has been Islamized to a great extent. I think the meaning of "islamization" is lost on many.

Pakistan had a population of 70 million in 1974. In 2009, 35 years later the population was 170 million. That means 100 million people exist in Pakistan today who are 35 years or less in age. That vast majority of them are uneducated. The little education that they have has been acquired in madarsas - and even if they have not been taught to maim and kill they have certainly not been taught to love India or kafirs in general. It is these under 35s who form the bulk of the Pakistan army and irregular jihadi forces and the junior to middle ranking officer cadre of the army. These are the people who are receiving American and Chinese arms aid. All can be expected to be anti-India. A few will be anti-US. Almost none are currently anti-China. It is the senior officer - the over 45s who saw the 1971 war in their lives who have made Pakistan a nuclear power. Those nuclear arms will be inherited by the under 35s of today. Exactly which way these under-35s will tilt is difficult to tell, but it is unlikely to be pro India or pro-US. I predict that some will soon become anti-China as well :mrgreen: but that is debatable. It is important to stop giving these people free arms. Let them learn to work and earn money to pay someone for arms.

As I see it the US is ostensibly supporting democracy in Pakistan and is asking India to support that as well. But in the background the US is keeping the Pakistan army bribed and happy as long as the Pakarmy does some fighting in Waziristan. The Paki army milks the US for that, but it is not a one-way milking. The Pakistani army is genuinely being opposed by some Pakistanis as being a US lackey. The Pakistani army tries to fight this image by saying that their opponents are Indian agents or foreign agents - so things are in a flux right now. But as long as the US helps the Pakistan army the chances of Pakistan splitting into Baluchistan and Pashtunistan are low because the US supports the unity and integrity of Pakistan the nation.

Will stop now.
Last edited by shiv on 22 Feb 2011 08:25, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by shiv »

Sidhant wrote: So the if the choice is among choosing the lesser evil, I think US is better.
I can see the logic in this but I also see this as a very dangerous attitude. India will have to hinge its own safety on the success_and_goodwill of the US. I do not see the US game plan in Pakistan succeeding in the long term. And in the ong term Indian power must be ready to take on threats from any quarter and not assume that any power such as the US is more friendly and desirable.

It's a tough choice but India has no other go. For India to dominate the region, India must use the clout it has over events in Pakistan without bending to other people's plans. The US plan in Pakistan to me is dubious at best. And as you can see from the begging and cajoling the US does asking India to settle the Cashmere issue thatIndia has some clout over events in Pakistan.

And, as I see it - in the long term the only way Pakistan's economy (for over 150 million mainly agrarian people) to come up is to deal with and integrate with the Indian mainland - with which "Pakistan" has been connected and trading ever since the world began and even before Allah was discovered. Chinese roads via Pakistan may harm India, but they certainly won't lift 150 million (and counting) Pakis out of poverty any more than the Silk route supported the economy of Sindh
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by Anujan »

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/Mirwa ... al/753130/

BENIS Dhaaga material: Mirwaiz discusses grave issues of Cashmere with......wait for it.....wait for it.....Blahwall Bhutto!! :rotfl:
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by shravan »

Malaysian police detain Pakistanis over kidnap

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian police said on Tuesday they had foiled a kidnapping gang with the arrest of four Pakistani nationals who seized their own countrymen for ransom from the victims’ relatives back home.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by kmkraoind »

Truly, a great explanation by Shiv ayyavaru, it goes into my archive for some of the best posts in BRF. Once again thanks for the gyan and its presentation.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by SSridhar »

RamaY wrote:
Dr K Subrahmanyam: They wanted to become a nuclear weapon power, which is the price the Americans had to pay in order to get Pakistani support. They had to look away from the Chinese arm in that.
In the discussion in the 'Managing Pakistan's Failure' thread a few weeks back, when I had not seen this Dr. KS's interview, I said,
. . . the US and Pakistan came to an understanding on this issue before Pakistani collaboration was cemented in the US obsession to defeat the USSR and dismantle communism.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by A_Gupta »

Sick
http://pakteahouse.net/2011/02/22/sunil ... more-12168
It was a performance in enlightened feudalism that has all but vanished in India’s Punjab.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by negi »

Anujan wrote: BENIS Dhaaga material: Mirwaiz discusses grave issues of Cashmere with......wait for it.....wait for it.....Blahwall Bhutto!! :rotfl:
So here too they wish to compete with us, they have Bilawal as against our 'clown prince' ? :mrgreen:
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by abhishek_sharma »

Secy-level talks: India offers March-end dates

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/Secy- ... es/752960/
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by VikramS »

shiv:

Since no one responded and you claimed that a lack of response does not mean agreement, I did some digging. According to wikipedia
=>TSPAF got 40 F-16s during the Afghan War.
=> It was supposed to get 28 more but got soy bean/oil instead after the Afghan War ended.
=> Since 2000 it got 14 of those 28 F-16.
=>They ordered 18 + 14 more in 2006 out of which the grand sum of THREE have made it to TSP in FOUR years (and we fault the slow production lines in India). So since 9/11 the TSPAF has received a grand total of 17 F-16s (with more on order)

I do agree that these 17 F-16s with AAMRAAMs do provide the IAF with a challenge and will result in some attrition. But ascribing anything more than that is perhaps wishful thinking.

I find your comment about my time and place of choice a bit disconcerting, since it illustrates a tendency to make any request on discussion on something nebulous as a duel; especially if it questions something which is accepted as truth even if it has not been scrutinized.

I remember a few years ago I had posed some questions about what could be done to help IMs become more Indian and less Muslim. That led to a many pages of discussion which I was barely qualified to participate in; but even then this attitude of "you do not know them" was evident. However if anything, the past few years has illustrated that at least some segment of the IM population is breaking through the shackles of the old group-think.

Most regulars are well-aware of the of the dynamics you outlined. However, it still does not answer the US vs CCP question.

In my view, the US desperately trying to hold on to whatever influence it has with TSP. More so it is trying to keep the CCP out.

I also see all those requests to have chai-biskoot on Cashmere, as sops for the US favored TSPians to claim progress internally. Almost everyone knows that Cashmere is not going to be offered on a platter. But even then they try. The only ones who are being fooled by these talks are those who want to be fooled. And this includes people on both side of the border.

And as someone else pointed out, when it comes to India, the US is much less of an evil than the CCP. Mind you, this does not negate all the information you have provided with regards to TSP, the US role etc. However, I still do not see a roadmap on how the future TSP will look if the CCP calls the shots.

And many will benefit on the one or two pages you could write on each of the questions I pose. The regularly scheduled programing is anyway becoming too predictable. Some fresh food for thought might help.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by Vivek_A »

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/22/world ... nted=print
Midlevel Taliban Admit to a Rift With Top Leaders
By CARLOTTA GALL

KANDAHAR, Afghanistan — Recent defeats and general weariness after nine years of war are creating fissures between the Taliban’s top leadership based in Pakistan and midlevel field commanders, who have borne the brunt of the fighting and are reluctant to return to some battle zones, Taliban members said in interviews.

After suffering defeats with the influx of thousands of new American troops in the southern provinces of Kandahar and Helmand last year, many Taliban fighters retreated across the border to the safety of Pakistan.
They are now coming under pressure from their leaders to return to Afghanistan to step up the fight again, a Taliban commander said. Many are hesitant to do so, at least for now.

“I have talked to some commanders, and they are reluctant to fight,” one 45-year-old commander who has been with the Taliban since its founding in 1994 said in an interview in this southern city. He spoke on condition he not be identified because he was in hiding from American and government forces. “Definitely there is disagreement between the field commanders and the leaders over their demands to go and fight.”

The differences point not just to the increasing stresses on the battlefield for midlevel Taliban commanders like him, but also to the difficulty of ending the insurgency as long as the Taliban’s top leadership has sanctuary in Pakistan, which has long protected and sponsored the Taliban.

Secure across the border, and tightly controlled by Pakistan’s military and intelligence agencies, the top Taliban leadership remains uncompromising. At the urging of their protectors in Pakistan, Taliban members say, they continue to push midlevel Taliban commanders back across the border to carry on the insurgency, which extends Pakistan’s influence in southern Afghanistan.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by RajeshG »

Johann
Johann wrote:The PA is going to reject America before America rejects the PA.
This makes sense. Altho its not clear to me why you say this. The reason it makes sense to me is because the US is being increasingly viewed as a waning power. The shock-and-awe campaigns are a distant memory. Unless US makes a show of strength soon, PA is going to get bolder.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by ramana »

Wonder if TSP will show an act of defiance after the RD affair? They already have more nukes than UK a P-6 country and on way to overtake France once the 4th plant comes up. However all these are faltu bums not bigger than a blast from Pindi Channa. Maybe they will show some defiance at Chagai which will allow them to release RDbhai.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by Vivek_A »

Chidanand Rajghatta....About your brilliant reporting on how the gap in drone strikes was related to the Davis affair...perhaps you need to stop reading paki rags like earth-e-shaster and the nutty nation and do a little real reporting for a change?

http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/21/us-missi ... istan.html
PESHAWAR: A suspected US missile strike has killed nine people in a tribal region near the Afghan border.

It was the second missile strike in roughly 24 hours. The first killed seven alleged militants.

Official sources said four missiles hit a house late Monday in Spalga village in the North Waziristan tribal region.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by Anujan »

RD affair should be carefully analyzed, it is several layers like an onion.

1. There is the army-civvies angle to it. With the army hinting that they can still create situations which can destabilize the civvies. There have been several shots across the bow before -- like protests over the Kerry-Lugar bill, Aafiya Protests, Judges protests all with an aim to the civvies to no assume that they are in charge.
2. There is the army demanding more baksheesh angle to it
3. Then I feel that there is a message, including to countries like India that Unkil can do diddly squat about things like pressurizing Pakis to rein in terror or bring Mumbai perpetrators to justice when Unkil is powerless to rescue his own man.

I hope that this is a nice wake up Jhappad to all those who think that buying a few planes from Unkil or dancing to Unkil's tune will buy us security from the Pakis. But this post is not about that.

Pakis, I feel will eventually overplay their hand. For all their implicit threat of letting China move in, two facts should not be forgotten

1. Pakis have been a MASSIVE drain on Unkil's money while not exactly dancing to Unkil's tune. I wish they are as big a drain on Chinese money as they were on Unkil's money
2. Pakis had some hope of being economically independent on Unkil's aid -- bulk of the money was for development. Chinese on the other had will only arm the Pakis and buy up Paki-land, making them permanently dependent on aid.

So, given that taller than mountain friends will not be moving in a hurry, given that all the Ummah birathers are busy holding on to their seats right now (the ones who are surviving I mean) and given that IMF, ADB, WB, Japan are all Unkil's munnas and given the tactical brilliance of the Pakis, it is *inevitable* that they overplay their hand. They will do something or the other (like Faisal Shahzad) and get a resounding Jhappad.

India should help them with this. Covertly and overtly. For a start, let us produce a lot more opinion columns about how Paki H&D is being threatened by Unkil. Let us write how unfair Unkil is, making Pakis kill their own brethren.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by kmkraoind »

Anujan wrote:India should help them with this. Covertly and overtly. For a start, let us produce a lot more opinion columns about how Paki H&D is being threatened by Unkil. Let us write how unfair Unkil is, making Pakis kill their own brethren.
How about some RSS walahs and BJP people openly asking release of RD and mildly warning with the consequence if he is not released. This will enrage the common abdul on the street. Since SDREs are threatening them to release RD, their determination to hold RD increases, complicating the egos of GUBO, PA and civilian scrap goat government. Left have the tamasha from their on.

Adder later: An old Telugu movie clip (slightly OT) how diplomacy works.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by RajeshA »

Anujan wrote:For a start, let us produce a lot more opinion columns about how Paki H&D is being threatened by Unkil. Let us write how unfair Unkil is, making Pakis kill their own brethren.
A post of mines on Paki forum!
Frankly speaking, I don’t think Mr. Raymond Davis enjoys diplomatic immunity. Diplomatic immunity does not come from possessing a diplomatic passport, but rather from having a diplomatic visa given by the host country – in this case Pakistan.

If he had enjoyed diplomatic immunity – that means having had a diplomatic visa, he would have long been gone back by now. SMQ has categorically said, that RD was not given any diplomatic visa.

Now the he could have been given a diplomatic visa by Pakistan Ambassador Hussain Haqqani, but that did not happen when RD traveled to Pakistan, perhaps for reason, that usually one is open about who the various diplomats are at various embassies, but as RD’s presence was not to be publicized too much, one thought otherwise and he did not apply for a diplomatic visa.

Whatever!

So Pakistani People should know that Raymond Davis is not a diplomat, does not have diplomatic immunity. And if their Government send back RD, it would be another sign of the Pakistani Government having sold their souls to America.

The least the Pakistanis should demand in return is the release of Dr. Aafia Siddiqui, the daughter of Pakistan.

If RD is released, it would only encourage Americans to come into Pakistan and shoot Pakistanis at will. The death of two loyal ISI agents who were only doing their patriotic duty of protecting Pakistan’s security interests within Pakistani territory, should not go unavenged. Justice must be done. The courts should be allowed to do their work!
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by partha »

RajeshA wrote:
Anujan wrote:For a start, let us produce a lot more opinion columns about how Paki H&D is being threatened by Unkil. Let us write how unfair Unkil is, making Pakis kill their own brethren.
A post of mines on Paki forum!
Frankly speaking, I don’t think Mr. Raymond Davis enjoys diplomatic immunity. Diplomatic immunity does not come from possessing a diplomatic passport, but rather from having a diplomatic visa given by the host country – in this case Pakistan.

If he had enjoyed diplomatic immunity – that means having had a diplomatic visa, he would have long been gone back by now. SMQ has categorically said, that RD was not given any diplomatic visa.

Now the he could have been given a diplomatic visa by Pakistan Ambassador Hussain Haqqani, but that did not happen when RD traveled to Pakistan, perhaps for reason, that usually one is open about who the various diplomats are at various embassies, but as RD’s presence was not to be publicized too much, one thought otherwise and he did not apply for a diplomatic visa.

Whatever!

So Pakistani People should know that Raymond Davis is not a diplomat, does not have diplomatic immunity. And if their Government send back RD, it would be another sign of the Pakistani Government having sold their souls to America.

The least the Pakistanis should demand in return is the release of Dr. Aafia Siddiqui, the daughter of Pakistan.

If RD is released, it would only encourage Americans to come into Pakistan and shoot Pakistanis at will. The death of two loyal ISI agents who were only doing their patriotic duty of protecting Pakistan’s security interests within Pakistani territory, should not go unavenged. Justice must be done. The courts should be allowed to do their work!
I like how yindoos don't let Paki "liberals" drink their tea in peace :)
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by RajeshA »

Anujan wrote:RD affair should be carefully analyzed, it is several layers like an onion.
<snip>
3. Then I feel that there is a message, including to countries like India that Unkil can do diddly squat about things like pressurizing Pakis to rein in terror or bring Mumbai perpetrators to justice when Unkil is powerless to rescue his own man.
This has a lot to do with Pakistan feeling over-confident that as long as USA is in Afghanistan, there is not much America can push Pakistan on.

America has allowed Pakistan to dictate:
  • American boots on the ground, as incursions from the Afghan side, are not acceptable.
  • Incursion of American attack planes and helicopters into Pakistani air space, are not acceptable.
  • America does not get to expand the drone strikes into Northern Baluchistan, Quetta, even if senior Taliban leadership live there.
  • Targeting of Pakistani security personnel manning the border is not acceptable, even if they are complicit in letting in Afghan Taliban to the safe sanctuaries on the Pakistan side.
Often the annoyance with the Americans has been expressed by burning trucks carrying supplies to the Americans in Afghanistan by road. Raymond Davis is a new means of controlling the Americans.

Considering the Pakistani's success in restraining America, it is but natural that they get over-confident.

The Americans make a big mistake in giving in to the Pakistani demands.

The Americans need to go back to their original formulation of policy in the AfPak battleground. Either Pakistan cooperates, or they will be bombed to the stone age!

When the Americans first started taking Pakistani complaints and requests into account, it was there and then that the downward slide began in America's effectiveness in controlling the war theater. It was when the drama thought out for public consumption about Pakistan being an ally in the GWOT started playing, it was then that Pakistan knew they were off the hook. Now USA needed to keep the pretension.

Al Qaeda committed 9/11. Taliban gave sanctuary to Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. Pakistani Army created Taliban and controlled them (which they still do).

So basically Pakistani Army is responsible for 9/11!

This is the basic fact that the Americans need to always keep in view, when dealing with Pakistanis.

The Americans need to reformulate their stance towards Pakistan so that it better represents the reality of their relationship - that America gave Pakistanis a chance to redeem their substantial guilt in 9/11 and they blew it!

America needs to designate Pakistan as a terrorist country on parole. A terrorist country on parole has no rights to make nuclear weapons. As of now the international community should take custody of Pakistan's nuclear weapons. Furthermore Pakistan has to visibly, transparently and credibly decommission its jihadi networks.

Pakistan will never do the needful by appeasement, only through credible threat, the taste of whose punishment is meted out to Pakistan on a regular basis.

That America could not do well in Afghanistan considering the restrictions, the world and the American citizenry would forgive and forget! Afghanistan is a side-show and no victory there needs to be found or declared. There is no loss of face, if America leaves Afghanistan. But if America messes up Pakistan big time, then the world will not forget that!

America needs to put Pakistan in the cross hairs again!
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2

Post by James B »

Rape statistics in Pakistan
Violence against women makes up 95 per cent of cases of violence reported in Pakistan. These statistics are even more chilling, bearing in mind that 70 per cent of cases of violence against women do not get registered. The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan estimates that a rape occurs in Pakistan every two hours and a gang rape every eight hours.

Aurat Foundation’s report titled Situation of Violence against Women in Pakistan 2010 discloses that Punjab dominates with 2,690 registered cases out of a total of 4,069 incidents in various parts of Pakistan.

Interior Ministry documents placed before the National Assembly in 2008 revealed that a staggering 7,546 women were raped in a mere 24-month span between 2007-2009, a rate of 314 rapes every month.
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