News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
Rangudu is absolutely right about the PA and establishment fear both of Pakiban revenge, and uncontrollable splintering within the Afghan Taliban if Omar is taken.
That is why the PA brass are warning against further US operations. The problem is they now have less leverage with the Americans than at any point since September 2001.
Their best bet at this point is to go in to North Waziristan and take on the Pakiban with US support, while letting the Haqqanis go. Once the PA is in N. Waziristan US drone attacks would have to stop.
That will buy them a little time anyway, but it will come at a heavy cost to them.
In the meanwhile they may have to put Omar in one of their nuclear bunkers to keep him safe from Uncle Sam's long arms!
That is why the PA brass are warning against further US operations. The problem is they now have less leverage with the Americans than at any point since September 2001.
Their best bet at this point is to go in to North Waziristan and take on the Pakiban with US support, while letting the Haqqanis go. Once the PA is in N. Waziristan US drone attacks would have to stop.
That will buy them a little time anyway, but it will come at a heavy cost to them.
In the meanwhile they may have to put Omar in one of their nuclear bunkers to keep him safe from Uncle Sam's long arms!
Last edited by Johann on 07 May 2011 23:08, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
Ramana ji, but how much weight Mullah Omar would carry now after 10 years of hiding and no video whatsoever. A complete new generation of self sufficient terror leaders must have taken over by now. See there is hardly any repercussions of OBL being killed in TSP or Arab countries. So what goes of anyone's uncle if MO is also taken out on some later date. After all these are the folks protected in 2001 to be used as rain check on some future date.ramana wrote:CRS,
It could be some smoke and mirrors. The lashing at India might not work this time.
Haqqani network will be the one they will try to get. Omar is needed as Ghilzai chieftain to bring them to table.
also at the high level :
The Pakjabi Army did not protect the Muhajir.
OBL = Muhajir not a native to area
Either incompetence or betrayal or in between. Still end result is the above conclusion.
My guess is Mullah Omar eventually be sold to US and a more acceptable english speaking new chieftain will be propped in his place.
Pakjabi Army did protect OBL since 2001 and that too very successfully. Just that they turned incompetent and greedy in the 2011.
Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
Indeed, that is spot on. But you know the OBL killing has led to several Afghan taleb allied factions splintering already - Mullah Nazir who operates in Paktika and Helmand. In their view 90% of talebs are now against Pak army.Johann wrote:Rangudu is absolutely right about the PA and establishment fear both of Pakiban revenge, and uncontrollable splintering within the Afghan Taliban if Omar is taken.
That is why the PA brass are warning against further US operations. The problem is they now have less leverage with the Americans than at any point since September 2001.
Their best bet at this point is to go in to North Waziristan and take on the Pakiban with US support, while letting the Haqqanis go. Once the PA is in N. Waziristan US drone attacks would have to stop.
That will buy them a little time anyway, but it will come at a heavy cost to them.
In the meanwhile they may have to put Omar in one of their nuclear bunkers to keep him safe from Uncle Sam's long arms!
Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
If the fear is true, then we can sit watch pakis split and relax for centuries. Thx for the fear induction. Rawngudu.
Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
If US takesout anything Omar, Haqqani or Nukes and convince(create perception) that everything they are taking out by force and Pakistan has no involvement there will be no problem for Pakijabs. PA and ISI are best in displaying victimhood to convince the beards. In the Jirgas they can convince that US is determined and it is too big to fight and we are now losing. Obama is worse than Bush lababla and they can convince.Johann wrote:Rangudu is absolutely right about the PA and establishment fear both of Pakiban revenge, and uncontrollable splintering within the Afghan Taliban if Omar is taken.
That is why the PA brass are warning against further US operations. The problem is they now have less leverage with the Americans than at any point since September 2001.
Their best bet at this point is to go in to Northern Waziristan and take on the Pakiban with US support, while letting the Haqqanis go. Once they PA is in N. Waziristan US drone attacks would have to stop.
That will buy them a little time anyway, but it will come at a heavy cost to them.
In the meanwhile they may have to put Omar in one of their nuclear bunkers to keep him safe from Uncle Sam's long arms!
Re: Breaking News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
first things first, kindly drop the sir.Aaryan wrote:Rahul M wrote:before I answer, this is the problem with reading pakistani forum and blogs without a filter.
read deafNdumb if you want but keep its gyan out of BR.
kindly keep BS from paki sources to those sites. do not litter this place with garbage.
Sir,.......
no mod, including myself has ever forbidden questioning anything on BR.i dint knew that asking questions is prohibited in BR, its not littering. I would rather call it a debate. If u belive that BR should have only one point of view and others should either shut up or take the risk of being called garbage, then i would prefer the 2nd option. I hope u read about the process of thesis, antithesis, synthesis.. If questions are not raised how come any one will know the truth and about the ambiguities in the version and try to find out the hidden truth. I don’t think Unkil will invite any of us to give the 1st hand account of the event and what actually happened. Today u may criticize for asking questions but I hope time will prove who is right and who is wrong.. Will rest my case and try and not litter the place with garbage with my questions..
that interpretation is entirely yours.
all we are saying is that there is some minimum standard that BR adheres to and questions based upon assumptions that passes for conventional wisdom in paki fora does not meet that standard. in general, it is up to the mods to decide what constitutes the minimum standard. you are of course welcome to present your own views provided you meet that standard.
if you feel that this arrangement cramps your style I am sure you will find many places on the net which are more welcoming of theorizing unburdened by facts or logic.
Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
Osama looked pretty ratty in the ole' home videos. Disheveled, monkey cap wearing, not pretty. However, extremely vain with the dyed beard for the Jihadi videos. Osama's favorite channels included Bloomberg TV, Dubai TV and assorted other channels on Hotbird satellite. Is this also available in India? Thankfully, did not see any Indian channels. Long and short of it was that dude was watching a 13 inch tv in a Saddamesque rathole. I am sure more stuff will "leak out" as days go by.
Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
Unusual quiet from radical Pakistani groups

And people were out on the streets during the "Raymind Davis" affair, "Free Aafia" affair and "Carry-Logger Bill". Is WaPo really that big of a tubelight to realize who incites and gathers these crowds?In a nation that is home to an alphabet soup of militant organizations subscribing to the late al-Qaeda leader’s violent ideology, retaliatory bombs did not explode. The cities did not fill with banned organizations’ foot soldiers vowing revenge.

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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
Najam Shady's column in India Today - ISI's place in the Bin laden jigsaw puzzle url - http://indiatoday.intoday.in/site/story ... 37241.html
He writes here and talks (in his talk show Apas ki Baat on Geo) with such conviction of some RAW data (some conversations happening in Arabic from an elusive SIM card) that ISI was passing onto CIA that led to OBL's demise.... earlier whenever i listened to his analysis i thought he had a balanced opinion but with this OBL fiasco he is trying hard to save PA & ISI from major H&D loss which is ok when he does it on a paki news channel but why is India Today allowing such crap to be published ...
He writes here and talks (in his talk show Apas ki Baat on Geo) with such conviction of some RAW data (some conversations happening in Arabic from an elusive SIM card) that ISI was passing onto CIA that led to OBL's demise.... earlier whenever i listened to his analysis i thought he had a balanced opinion but with this OBL fiasco he is trying hard to save PA & ISI from major H&D loss which is ok when he does it on a paki news channel but why is India Today allowing such crap to be published ...
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
What surprises me when i saw that clip (both posted here and on CNN) was why would he get himself recorded while watching himself on those channels or maybe it was one of his kids that were testing their new handy-cam by capturing abbu jaan being a narcissistic pig... on CNN they were debating that isn't it against Izzlam to dye their beard (maybe i heard incorrectly) and how it makes him seem feminine to AQ operatives now that he used to dye his beard before recording his public statements while in reality he had age appropriate beard color....Anant wrote:Osama looked pretty ratty in the ole' home videos. Disheveled, monkey cap wearing, not pretty. However, extremely vain with the dyed beard for the Jihadi videos. Osama's favorite channels included Bloomberg TV, Dubai TV and assorted other channels on Hotbird satellite. Is this also available in India? Thankfully, did not see any Indian channels. Long and short of it was that dude was watching a 13 inch tv in a Saddamesque rathole. I am sure more stuff will "leak out" as days go by.
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
^^^^Rudradev, I would like to offer the following comments of the excellent post you made in this thread on “06 May 2011 12:04”;
To a very large extent, I agree with the bulk of what you have written in this post, but I would still like to add a few points/counterpoints, so that the understanding it purveys can be refined and made more accurate, and more importantly, more useful for Rakshaks. If anyone reading this post has not already read Rudradev’s excellent post referenced above, they should go back and read that post in its entirety first, before reading what I have written below.
Actually, this situation wasn’t exactly a power vacuum. Following the slow, long, Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, they left in place what was essentially a ‘caretaker government’ that was friendly towards the USSR. Some degree of Soviet military aid continued to trickle-in, but it was not enough, as history has shown.
The fight against the Soviet occupation forces, promptly targeted the Soviet-friendly caretaker regime left in its wake, and the rest is history.
Another important point to add here: Beginning in 1979, to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan; a charismatic and influential Palestinian cleric named ‘Abdullah Yusuf Azzam’ made his way to Pakistan, in service of what can be termed “defensive jihad” undertaken on behalf of the broader Ummah. One of his lieutenants was Osama bin Laden. Indeed, OBL’s wealth was underwriting much of the effort. Soon after this effort was under way; OBL organized his own sub-group, comprising Arab fighters exclusively, which he led on his own initiative (with a mix of moderate success and disastrous failure, it should be noted). This caused a rift, or more precisely, a ‘shism’ between the pan-Islamist, defensively-minded Azzam, and the more Arab-focussed, offensively-minded OBL.
Although OBL’s sub-group was fighting the Soviets at the time, I believe that this was undertaken in order to harden his Arab fighters for the real jihad that OBL’s had in mind; which was to be directed against the decadent KSA. Over time, this anti-KSA motive grew to encompass the KSA’s backers, which OBL identified as “Christians and Jews”, in what can be termed pre-emptive or “offensive jihad”.
In the ensuing years after the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan and the rise of the Taliban; OBL had offered his fighters to protect first Saudi Arabia and then also Kuwait from the US-backed Saddam Hussein – only to be rebuffed both times. To add fuel to OBL’s fire about this; both the KSA and the Kuwaitis turned to the Kaffir Khans for their defence. This seared into OBL’s mind, his perception of who his enemies were – who were the true enemies of Islam, according to him.
It is also important to note that upon the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, at first, the Americans had nothing to say about it, and seemed to take no interest whatsoever. Indeed, some have even argued that then US Ambassador to Iraq, April Glaspie, had actually communicated to Saddam Hussein what was essentially a ‘green light’ for the invasion. It took several weeks, and finally a personal, *impromptu* visit to George Bush-41 by then UK-PM Margaret Thatcher, to turn the American tide against Saddam Hussein’s annexation of Kuwait (probably because Kuwaiti oil was pumped by BP, and Kuwaiti oil wealth was banked in the UK).
To your point, Rudradev; had OBL remained under the tutelage of Abdullah Azzam; I am sure that J&K would have had a much heavier involvement of Arab-origin jihadi-inspired ‘attention’. But having broken-away from Azzam, India was spared from suffering OBL’s attention. I wouldn’t give too much credit to “Washington’s game plan”, nor would I say that it worked out “perfectly”, to use your term. I would say that things happened the way they did, more on account of American handling of the Iraq-Kuwait-KSA situation, and because of OBL’s personality, beliefs and gripes, rather than for any grand design hatched in Washington.
Furthermore, I think you are misreading the “Arab street” if you think they have love for Pakistan. They do not. For the record, the “Arab street” has witnessed Pakistanis backing (and staffing) oppressive Arab regimes – most notably during the forcible expulsion of Palestinians from Jordan; and more recently in the murderous response to the “Arab spring” now coursing across the Middle East. Pakistanis may have favour in the halls of power in this region, but I doubt if they would enjoy the same welcome on the “Arab street”.
Perhaps you mis-wrote this point because you were focussed on another issue – which I can understand – but it bears my pointing this out; particularly because the “Arab spring” currently underway, has the potential for blowback against the Pakistanis, and this is to be noted and welcomed by readers of this thread. We should all be careful to draw a distinction between ‘hitherto fore’ Arab leadership, and the emerging dispensation that a democratic Arab revolution may potentially bring.
Rudradev, not intending to detract from the bulk of your post, which I agree with, on the whole; I am compelled to say that this section #19 that is quoted above is of a lesser quality than the previous 18 sections you have written. I offer the following for your reflection, and for the benefit of Rakshaks following this thread; not intending to diminish the kudos you deserve for your excellent post. I will offer my comments/criticisms in sequence, for the sake of simplicity.
1. I think, upon reflection, that everyone reading this post can agree that “the final chapter” will in fact not be “concluded last weekend” with “the American raid on the Abbotabad HM Safehouse where OBL was hiding”. The final chapter is yet to be written – there is much fallout on-order, and the dust of the SEAL’s helos has barely even settled yet.
2. You ask the question, “Could the US have conducted the raid without any knowledge of the TSPA/ISI top-brass?” and you subsequently provide your answer, “Unlikely”. This analysis surprises me, and I cannot for a moment believe in it. For starters, the SEAL raid was a success, and I think we can agree that the TSPA/ISI would have interfered somehow if they had even the slightest opportunity to do so. If they had any kind of advance warning, I am certain that they would have moved OBL to some other, more secure location. Indeed, if the TSPA/ISI had any hint of what might have been in the works, during the entire lead-up to the raid, I am sure that they would have taken their own steps, in furtherance of their own interests. Some here on BRF have commented that the TSPA/ISI might have been constrained by American threats. What they fail to realize is that, by definition, a threat is a tactical error, because it allows your adversary to plan a response, to mitigate that threat, and even to plan his own pre-emptive or countervailing action to defeat that threat. I am certain that the Americans played dumb, and allowed the TSPA/ISI to drop their guard and become complacent.
Some others here on BRF have proffered that once the SEAL’s operation was under way, a phone call was placed to Kiyani, warning him to stay out of the SEAL’s way. I also don’t think this is how it happened. Like I’ve said, a warning – just like a threat – is a tactical error, because it risks giving away the initiative, which is everything with this kind of an undertaking. If I were to guess how things went down that night, I would say that it is obvious that waaaaaay more than two or four helicopters were involved; that almost certainly there were jets overhead; that TSPAF tower controllers were warned by American pilots flying overhead, that any scrambled TSPAF aircraft would be shot down (which would be more than a warning or a threat if those USAF planes were already buzzing the tower, while the TSPAF aircraft were still in the hangars); and that the actual SEAL insertion team comprised approximately two dozen operators who raided the house, while 50+ SEALS secured the perimeter, with heavy CAS (probably including a C-130J and a number of jets). Indeed, it has been reported that during the planning phases of the operation, that Obama instructed them not to go in so lightly that they could not fight their way out if they had to.
3. You have written that “there were just too many things that could have gone wrong with a purely unilateral operation, for Washington to risk it”. I think you are seriously underestimating the American ability to take a risk. IMHO, Americans are certainly among the least risk-averse people in the world. A number of examples of this American appetite for risk come immediately to my mind. The first that I can think of happened during the ‘Manhattan Project’ to build the first atomic bomb. Some of the scientists on the project had raised the possibility that the nuclear blast could ignite the nitrogen in the air and burn-off the entire world’s atmosphere in what would have been a planet-destroying chain reaction. The Americans went ahead anyway. Another example; during the Viet Nam war, when the Americans turned to the use of defoliants to destroy the jungles in which the Vietcong were hiding; they shipped massive amounts of these extremely toxic chemicals into a *mined* harbour. If one of these shipments had been sunk, the effects on the oceans could have been enormous, because phytoplankton were highly susceptible to these chemicals, and some scientists had warned at the time, that such a catastrophe could have global repercussions, perhaps including the destruction of the world’s primary source of oxygen. The Americans went ahead anyway. Indeed, there are many, many examples of American brinksmanship – including numerous instances of US nuclear submarines bumping and even ramming Soviet nuclear submarines – where the Americans took huge, GARGANTUAN risks.
In the case of the SEAL’s raid on OBL’s hideout; the risks could be managed – not with threats or warnings, as some on BRF have suggested – but rather; A] with secrecy, keeping the TSPA/ISI entirely out-of-the-loop, B] with very thorough planning and training, informed by intensive prior intelligence gathering, C] with high-end military technology embodied most of all by stealthy aircraft, and especially; D] with superior firepower, deployed on the ground with the SEALs, and already stationed overhead, with pre-set orders to fire on any Pakistanis who caused trouble, thereby keeping the TSPA in their barracks, and the TSPAF in their hangars. That is how it was done, in my not-too-humble opinion.
Remember, the whole raid would have relied also on ‘high operational tempo’, meaning that the best approach would have been to let some Pakistani base commander make the first phone call, up his chain of command, until one phone call lead to another phone call, and eventually Kiyani was awakened from a deep sleep. By then, Kiyani would have had to digest everything, and all of this information – the number and location of the American forces involved in the assault and supporting them from the air – after that long, long list describing very heavy firepower, it would have been too late for Kiyani to order anything, even if he weren’t intimidated, and even if he did give orders to stop the assault, the Americans were already in place with whatever they needed to keep the initiative on their side. This is how Pakistani ‘sovirginity’ was thoroughly effed that night, by a team of USN SEALs numbering in the dozens.
4. You go on to write that “the Pakis may have agreed to let the US snatch OBL on such humiliating terms because... the only alternative available to the Pakis was WORSE…..”, and you go on to explain your suspicions that this worse scenario has something to do with the pending “trial of Tawwahur Hussein Rana in Chicago; and the trial in NY where the families of American 26/11 victims are suing the Pakistan Army and ISI”. From what I understand, Rana is a two-bit player, and has essentially nothing damaging between his ears – so therefore no one should expect any great revelations to come out of his trial. As for the civil suit brought against the ISI’s Pasha, et al., this is just a courtroom drama, nothing more – and will never generate the kind of backlash that the Pakistani harbouring of OBL already has. Even still, those court cases are proceeding, and I doubt very much they can be swept under any kind of rug, whatever its size.
Rudradev, this post of mine notwithstanding; I really liked your initial post, which I have referenced here, and I think that it should be ‘required reading’ for any Rakshak, particularly for new members.
With my very best regards,
RK
To a very large extent, I agree with the bulk of what you have written in this post, but I would still like to add a few points/counterpoints, so that the understanding it purveys can be refined and made more accurate, and more importantly, more useful for Rakshaks. If anyone reading this post has not already read Rudradev’s excellent post referenced above, they should go back and read that post in its entirety first, before reading what I have written below.
2) ……….. A deliberate power vacuum was engineered in Afghanistan following the Soviet withdrawal, one that only Pakistan was capable of filling via its proxies. Washington, at that time, favoured the creation of an Af-Pak under Islamabad's TSPA/ISI rule. It fit in with Washington's game plan perfectly.
Actually, this situation wasn’t exactly a power vacuum. Following the slow, long, Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, they left in place what was essentially a ‘caretaker government’ that was friendly towards the USSR. Some degree of Soviet military aid continued to trickle-in, but it was not enough, as history has shown.
The fight against the Soviet occupation forces, promptly targeted the Soviet-friendly caretaker regime left in its wake, and the rest is history.
Another important point to add here: Beginning in 1979, to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan; a charismatic and influential Palestinian cleric named ‘Abdullah Yusuf Azzam’ made his way to Pakistan, in service of what can be termed “defensive jihad” undertaken on behalf of the broader Ummah. One of his lieutenants was Osama bin Laden. Indeed, OBL’s wealth was underwriting much of the effort. Soon after this effort was under way; OBL organized his own sub-group, comprising Arab fighters exclusively, which he led on his own initiative (with a mix of moderate success and disastrous failure, it should be noted). This caused a rift, or more precisely, a ‘shism’ between the pan-Islamist, defensively-minded Azzam, and the more Arab-focussed, offensively-minded OBL.
Although OBL’s sub-group was fighting the Soviets at the time, I believe that this was undertaken in order to harden his Arab fighters for the real jihad that OBL’s had in mind; which was to be directed against the decadent KSA. Over time, this anti-KSA motive grew to encompass the KSA’s backers, which OBL identified as “Christians and Jews”, in what can be termed pre-emptive or “offensive jihad”.
In the ensuing years after the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan and the rise of the Taliban; OBL had offered his fighters to protect first Saudi Arabia and then also Kuwait from the US-backed Saddam Hussein – only to be rebuffed both times. To add fuel to OBL’s fire about this; both the KSA and the Kuwaitis turned to the Kaffir Khans for their defence. This seared into OBL’s mind, his perception of who his enemies were – who were the true enemies of Islam, according to him.
It is also important to note that upon the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, at first, the Americans had nothing to say about it, and seemed to take no interest whatsoever. Indeed, some have even argued that then US Ambassador to Iraq, April Glaspie, had actually communicated to Saddam Hussein what was essentially a ‘green light’ for the invasion. It took several weeks, and finally a personal, *impromptu* visit to George Bush-41 by then UK-PM Margaret Thatcher, to turn the American tide against Saddam Hussein’s annexation of Kuwait (probably because Kuwaiti oil was pumped by BP, and Kuwaiti oil wealth was banked in the UK).
To your point, Rudradev; had OBL remained under the tutelage of Abdullah Azzam; I am sure that J&K would have had a much heavier involvement of Arab-origin jihadi-inspired ‘attention’. But having broken-away from Azzam, India was spared from suffering OBL’s attention. I wouldn’t give too much credit to “Washington’s game plan”, nor would I say that it worked out “perfectly”, to use your term. I would say that things happened the way they did, more on account of American handling of the Iraq-Kuwait-KSA situation, and because of OBL’s personality, beliefs and gripes, rather than for any grand design hatched in Washington.
Rudradev, while I can agree with you that the American game plan for Pakistan was that it could be used as a base against “a recalcitrant Iran”, it should be noted that Pakistan’s perfidy extends to this aspect of its ‘usefulness’ as well, since there is solid evidence that the AQ Khan nuclear proliferation scheme benefitted the Iranian regime also. No doubt, this has displeased the Americans, but more so, the Saudi royals, who are more worried about the intentions of the Iranians then they are concerned about the machinations of Americans. (This is yet another fault-line that has so far been under-exploited by Bharat Rakshaks, IMO.)3) The game plan was ultimately, to…………….. threaten a recalcitrant Iran, and give the US "pro-Islamic" credibility with the Arab street.
Furthermore, I think you are misreading the “Arab street” if you think they have love for Pakistan. They do not. For the record, the “Arab street” has witnessed Pakistanis backing (and staffing) oppressive Arab regimes – most notably during the forcible expulsion of Palestinians from Jordan; and more recently in the murderous response to the “Arab spring” now coursing across the Middle East. Pakistanis may have favour in the halls of power in this region, but I doubt if they would enjoy the same welcome on the “Arab street”.
Perhaps you mis-wrote this point because you were focussed on another issue – which I can understand – but it bears my pointing this out; particularly because the “Arab spring” currently underway, has the potential for blowback against the Pakistanis, and this is to be noted and welcomed by readers of this thread. We should all be careful to draw a distinction between ‘hitherto fore’ Arab leadership, and the emerging dispensation that a democratic Arab revolution may potentially bring.
19) This brings us to the final chapter concluded last weekend: the American raid on the Abbotabad HM Safehouse where OBL was hiding.
The event is shrouded in mystery.
Could the US have conducted the raid without any knowledge of the TSPA/ISI top-brass? Unlikely.
However awesome the stealth helicopters, the NAVY seals, the high-tech jamming gear etc... there were just too many things that could have gone wrong with a purely unilateral operation, for Washington to risk it. From JSOC choppers getting shot down, to a fire-fight in urban Pakistan including civilian collateral damage, to the mistaken launch of a Pakistani nuke against India. Just too many unpredictable outcomes to consider, if the US had actually "gone it alone."
BUT BUT BUT... if Pakistan AGREED to let the US snatch OBL, why did they not bargain for a more H&D-saving facade? Why did they not insist that OBL be "found in the border regions of Afghanistan" rather than the very embarrassing location of Abbotabad? Why did they not angle for more recognition of their cooperative role so that they could get generous baksheesh in reward from the US Congress? Why did they submit to a raid that makes them look so very bad, in terms of H&D, and in terms of casting suspicion on their role in harbouring OBL all these years? Why did they let SEALS cart away incriminating evidence from the location instead of delivering Bin Laden to the Americans on their own terms?
There is only one possible answer: the Pakis may have agreed to let the US snatch OBL on such humiliating terms because... the only alternative available to the Pakis was WORSE. Unkil has something so damaging to the Pakis, that he was able to threaten them with it, and dictate the terms of how the OBL raid was going to go... or else.
What is that "WORSE" thing? I don't know.
I have a suspicion that it might revolve around two trials currently taking place in the US, though. The trial of Tawwahur Hussein Rana in Chicago; and the trial in NY where the families of American 26/11 victims are suing the Pakistan Army and ISI. Things which could have come out in those trials and become public information, may have been even more damaging to Pakistan than the mere fact of OBL hiding in Abbotabad all these years.
Rudradev, not intending to detract from the bulk of your post, which I agree with, on the whole; I am compelled to say that this section #19 that is quoted above is of a lesser quality than the previous 18 sections you have written. I offer the following for your reflection, and for the benefit of Rakshaks following this thread; not intending to diminish the kudos you deserve for your excellent post. I will offer my comments/criticisms in sequence, for the sake of simplicity.
1. I think, upon reflection, that everyone reading this post can agree that “the final chapter” will in fact not be “concluded last weekend” with “the American raid on the Abbotabad HM Safehouse where OBL was hiding”. The final chapter is yet to be written – there is much fallout on-order, and the dust of the SEAL’s helos has barely even settled yet.
2. You ask the question, “Could the US have conducted the raid without any knowledge of the TSPA/ISI top-brass?” and you subsequently provide your answer, “Unlikely”. This analysis surprises me, and I cannot for a moment believe in it. For starters, the SEAL raid was a success, and I think we can agree that the TSPA/ISI would have interfered somehow if they had even the slightest opportunity to do so. If they had any kind of advance warning, I am certain that they would have moved OBL to some other, more secure location. Indeed, if the TSPA/ISI had any hint of what might have been in the works, during the entire lead-up to the raid, I am sure that they would have taken their own steps, in furtherance of their own interests. Some here on BRF have commented that the TSPA/ISI might have been constrained by American threats. What they fail to realize is that, by definition, a threat is a tactical error, because it allows your adversary to plan a response, to mitigate that threat, and even to plan his own pre-emptive or countervailing action to defeat that threat. I am certain that the Americans played dumb, and allowed the TSPA/ISI to drop their guard and become complacent.
Some others here on BRF have proffered that once the SEAL’s operation was under way, a phone call was placed to Kiyani, warning him to stay out of the SEAL’s way. I also don’t think this is how it happened. Like I’ve said, a warning – just like a threat – is a tactical error, because it risks giving away the initiative, which is everything with this kind of an undertaking. If I were to guess how things went down that night, I would say that it is obvious that waaaaaay more than two or four helicopters were involved; that almost certainly there were jets overhead; that TSPAF tower controllers were warned by American pilots flying overhead, that any scrambled TSPAF aircraft would be shot down (which would be more than a warning or a threat if those USAF planes were already buzzing the tower, while the TSPAF aircraft were still in the hangars); and that the actual SEAL insertion team comprised approximately two dozen operators who raided the house, while 50+ SEALS secured the perimeter, with heavy CAS (probably including a C-130J and a number of jets). Indeed, it has been reported that during the planning phases of the operation, that Obama instructed them not to go in so lightly that they could not fight their way out if they had to.
3. You have written that “there were just too many things that could have gone wrong with a purely unilateral operation, for Washington to risk it”. I think you are seriously underestimating the American ability to take a risk. IMHO, Americans are certainly among the least risk-averse people in the world. A number of examples of this American appetite for risk come immediately to my mind. The first that I can think of happened during the ‘Manhattan Project’ to build the first atomic bomb. Some of the scientists on the project had raised the possibility that the nuclear blast could ignite the nitrogen in the air and burn-off the entire world’s atmosphere in what would have been a planet-destroying chain reaction. The Americans went ahead anyway. Another example; during the Viet Nam war, when the Americans turned to the use of defoliants to destroy the jungles in which the Vietcong were hiding; they shipped massive amounts of these extremely toxic chemicals into a *mined* harbour. If one of these shipments had been sunk, the effects on the oceans could have been enormous, because phytoplankton were highly susceptible to these chemicals, and some scientists had warned at the time, that such a catastrophe could have global repercussions, perhaps including the destruction of the world’s primary source of oxygen. The Americans went ahead anyway. Indeed, there are many, many examples of American brinksmanship – including numerous instances of US nuclear submarines bumping and even ramming Soviet nuclear submarines – where the Americans took huge, GARGANTUAN risks.
In the case of the SEAL’s raid on OBL’s hideout; the risks could be managed – not with threats or warnings, as some on BRF have suggested – but rather; A] with secrecy, keeping the TSPA/ISI entirely out-of-the-loop, B] with very thorough planning and training, informed by intensive prior intelligence gathering, C] with high-end military technology embodied most of all by stealthy aircraft, and especially; D] with superior firepower, deployed on the ground with the SEALs, and already stationed overhead, with pre-set orders to fire on any Pakistanis who caused trouble, thereby keeping the TSPA in their barracks, and the TSPAF in their hangars. That is how it was done, in my not-too-humble opinion.
Remember, the whole raid would have relied also on ‘high operational tempo’, meaning that the best approach would have been to let some Pakistani base commander make the first phone call, up his chain of command, until one phone call lead to another phone call, and eventually Kiyani was awakened from a deep sleep. By then, Kiyani would have had to digest everything, and all of this information – the number and location of the American forces involved in the assault and supporting them from the air – after that long, long list describing very heavy firepower, it would have been too late for Kiyani to order anything, even if he weren’t intimidated, and even if he did give orders to stop the assault, the Americans were already in place with whatever they needed to keep the initiative on their side. This is how Pakistani ‘sovirginity’ was thoroughly effed that night, by a team of USN SEALs numbering in the dozens.

4. You go on to write that “the Pakis may have agreed to let the US snatch OBL on such humiliating terms because... the only alternative available to the Pakis was WORSE…..”, and you go on to explain your suspicions that this worse scenario has something to do with the pending “trial of Tawwahur Hussein Rana in Chicago; and the trial in NY where the families of American 26/11 victims are suing the Pakistan Army and ISI”. From what I understand, Rana is a two-bit player, and has essentially nothing damaging between his ears – so therefore no one should expect any great revelations to come out of his trial. As for the civil suit brought against the ISI’s Pasha, et al., this is just a courtroom drama, nothing more – and will never generate the kind of backlash that the Pakistani harbouring of OBL already has. Even still, those court cases are proceeding, and I doubt very much they can be swept under any kind of rug, whatever its size.
Rudradev, this post of mine notwithstanding; I really liked your initial post, which I have referenced here, and I think that it should be ‘required reading’ for any Rakshak, particularly for new members.
With my very best regards,
RK
Last edited by Ravi Karumanchiri on 08 May 2011 02:04, edited 1 time in total.
Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
Statement to the faithfool that the supreme leader is very much in command. Messages are of two types -- statements to the infidels, and statements to the faithfool. This is the latter.Shaashtanga wrote:What surprises me when i saw that clip (both posted here and on CNN) was why would he get himself recorded while watching himself on those channels or maybe it was one of his kids that were testing their new handy-cam by capturing abbu jaan being a narcissistic pig
Re: Breaking News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
We???Rahul M wrote:first things first, kindly drop the sir.Rahul M wrote:before I answer, this is the problem with reading pakistani forum and blogs without a filter.
read deafNdumb if you want but keep its gyan out of BR.
kindly keep BS from paki sources to those sites. do not litter this place with garbage.
no mod, including myself has ever forbidden questioning anything on BR.i dint knew that asking questions is prohibited in BR, its not littering. I would rather call it a debate. If u belive that BR should have only one point of view and others should either shut up or take the risk of being called garbage, then i would prefer the 2nd option. I hope u read about the process of thesis, antithesis, synthesis.. If questions are not raised how come any one will know the truth and about the ambiguities in the version and try to find out the hidden truth. I don’t think Unkil will invite any of us to give the 1st hand account of the event and what actually happened. Today u may criticize for asking questions but I hope time will prove who is right and who is wrong.. Will rest my case and try and not litter the place with garbage with my questions..
that interpretation is entirely yours.
all we are saying is that there is some minimum standard that BR adheres to and questions based upon assumptions that passes for conventional wisdom in paki fora does not meet that standard. in general, it is up to the mods to decide what constitutes the minimum standard. you are of course welcome to present your own views provided you meet that standard.
if you feel that this arrangement cramps your style I am sure you will find many places on the net which are more welcoming of theorizing unburdened by facts or logic.





As far as leaving this forum.. so lemme make it clear I dint came here with permission of any one and I won’t leave if someone finds my question below average as I may find their logic below average.. so as a mod if u find am a niceness to this forum u can ban me.. that’s ur right.. but till I get banned I also have the right to ask, write what I feel is right..
Will rest my case with a very famous quote " I do not agree with what you have to say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it" Voltaire



Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
Again I want to ask are the Americans so incompetent that the chopper that they use for the most important mission of the decade crashed due to mechanical failure or are they so naive that they used and untested stealth chopper for a mission which was so important . so what could be the exact reason?? Was it shot down??
Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
At the very least, its indicative of the rot and TSPA/ISI/terrorist nexus. Yes, I am not sure Kiyani & Paasha held daily briefings inquing about OBL's well being in that compound, but I am sure it were the lower level operatives who were attending to OBL. The bigh picture from Kiyani/Paasha would have been that at the right time, they hand over OBL when the stakes are high confident in their belief that once the green siganl is given, their minions will hunt OBL down whereever he is. But yes, maybe they did not quite know that their minions will be so brazen as to hide OBL as a cheif guest right under their noses.ramana wrote: also at the high level :
The Pakjabi Army did not protect the Muhajir.
OBL = Muhajir not a native to area
Either incompetence or betrayal or in between. Still end result is the above conclusion.
Last edited by CRamS on 08 May 2011 02:52, edited 1 time in total.
Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
Actually, I feel Arnab needs help from BR when it comes to dealing with Pakis....or he should be advised to go through IDSA's Pakistan Project articles.shiv wrote:I tried watching Times Now and when I heard that Musharraf was to be interviewed I came off to BR. I can't understand why Times Now wants to interview that murderer of Indians on prime time. Musharraf is an international nobody. Arnab has lost it while trying to get ratings for Times Now.Aaryan wrote:If any one is watching times now, arnab is asking same questions to Musharaf, ( 9:25- 9:35 pm) that i asked and was called, ignorent and even warned by a genius to refrain from littering.. I hope u guys now listen to him and dont call arnab a paki, ignorent and blame him of littering garbage..
Ps: ready for nest round of insults..![]()
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
The chopper was tested fully, no one is going to fly prototypes on missions. A chopper has to be used in operations sometime, and this was as good as any. Remember that this is a stealth craft, and won't be used in regular operations. It will be used only in operations where radar evasion is very important.Aaryan wrote:Again I want to ask are the Americans so incompetent that the chopper that they use for the most important mission of the decade crashed due to mechanical failure or are they so naive that they used and untested stealth chopper for a mission which was so important . so what could be the exact reason?? Was it shot down??
There have also been reports that the chopper might have hit the compound. shit happens, that is why they had extra helicopters. And the US had planned to take osama's family along, but the loss of chopper meant they had to be left behind.
Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
I must admit that I was bamboozled like many, and still am to a large extent, at the US commando raid. But after this is sinking in, I look at the big picture, especially the cost (how many 1000s of Amecians died as a result of this obsession), and drunken sick celebration at taking him down, I am really wondering whether all this crap is as heroic as it is made out to be?Aaryan wrote:Again I want to ask are the Americans so incompetent that the chopper that they use for the most important mission of the decade crashed due to mechanical failure or are they so naive that they used and untested stealth chopper for a mission which was so important . so what could be the exact reason?? Was it shot down??
Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
Ravi, Just to set the record straight - when Kuwait was invaded, US offered their help. First thing KSA leadership was thinking - do we trust the US? Because the US showed that they didn't have the will power/or the spine to go the full way in things and prepare for serious casualties. e.g Lebanon etc.
The worry about Saddam was that he called up everyone and told Bandar that he had no intention of such a thing. He told Washington/Riyadh and "guaranteed" he wouldn't do anything like that. Riyadh made guarantees too and that the Kuwait issue could be resolved between themselves.
Glaspie was just one of the incidents, US officials continually throughout that month were making statements that they wouldnt interfere. Its not correct to just point out Glaspie.
Once he had invaded Kuwait. He crossed over into KSA a number of times. And the thing was that KSA was going slow on bringing the US in. It was Bandar that speeded it all up. At one point the only defence against Saddams army was just a small base in Hafr Al Bateen. Saddam COULD have walked over and seized the entire East of KSA without much effort. Ask senior US officials, the seizing of the ports in the East would have cut off US access and that war could have been quite different. Saddam would have had access to one of the largest oil reserves. Saddam was close and could have done it and so it was important for US/KSA to plan silently. The problem was that Saddam was developing Nazi style ambitions and monopolizing a lot of the worlds oil.
The Leaders of the mujahideen as King called it was with KSA and the nature of the threat meant the mujahideen could not be used. Yes they are annoyed but before GW1 the US presence in KSA was very limited. It was only after this threat that you saw large US presence in the Gulf.
The worry about Saddam was that he called up everyone and told Bandar that he had no intention of such a thing. He told Washington/Riyadh and "guaranteed" he wouldn't do anything like that. Riyadh made guarantees too and that the Kuwait issue could be resolved between themselves.
Glaspie was just one of the incidents, US officials continually throughout that month were making statements that they wouldnt interfere. Its not correct to just point out Glaspie.
Once he had invaded Kuwait. He crossed over into KSA a number of times. And the thing was that KSA was going slow on bringing the US in. It was Bandar that speeded it all up. At one point the only defence against Saddams army was just a small base in Hafr Al Bateen. Saddam COULD have walked over and seized the entire East of KSA without much effort. Ask senior US officials, the seizing of the ports in the East would have cut off US access and that war could have been quite different. Saddam would have had access to one of the largest oil reserves. Saddam was close and could have done it and so it was important for US/KSA to plan silently. The problem was that Saddam was developing Nazi style ambitions and monopolizing a lot of the worlds oil.
The Leaders of the mujahideen as King called it was with KSA and the nature of the threat meant the mujahideen could not be used. Yes they are annoyed but before GW1 the US presence in KSA was very limited. It was only after this threat that you saw large US presence in the Gulf.
Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
Another thing to note is that Taliban does not have RADARs and US has stationed RADAR evading choppers in Afghanistanputnanja wrote:The chopper was tested fully, no one is going to fly prototypes on missions. A chopper has to be used in operations sometime, and this was as good as any. Remember that this is a stealth craft, and won't be used in regular operations. It will be used only in operations where radar evasion is very important.

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Re: Breaking News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
Aaryan... dude.... you may not like it but let me give my 2naya paisa here (newbie to newbie)..... please try to be humble in your approach and i am sure that the senior maulaners here will be more then happy to clear your doubts.... you were not dis-respectful to anyone but the "newbie" humility & humbleness was lacking...We???![]()
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Its just you from the mods.. Now since Yyou have quoted me again, so lemme clarify.. My intention was not to question if OBL is/was killed or not. All I wanted to say was there is more to the story then what was being told to us. Of course I don’t expect unkil to tell us all but then again I don’t expect us( Brfites) to believe in whatever is being told to us. Those question were meant to make us think in different direction.. Now u say my questions were not supported by facts.. I would be surprised if u expect me to have the facts of a super secret operation. I was trying to find fact.. Today in times now arnab asked exactly same questions which I asked and I hope u wont say that he read my post and asked those questions.. he and his team must have done some homework.. now my question is if I ask same questions few days before any one else asks them then its garbage and if a renowned journalist asks same question then its also garbage??? Just becoz it dos not suites your taste???
As far as leaving this forum.. so lemme make it clear I dint came here with permission of any one and I won’t leave if someone finds my question below average as I may find their logic below average.. so as a mod if u find am a niceness to this forum u can ban me.. that’s ur right.. but till I get banned I also have the right to ask, write what I feel is right..
Will rest my case with a very famous quote " I do not agree with what you have to say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it" Voltaire![]()
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
On one of Najam Shady's AKB's he mentioned something about the crashed chopper "coming down hard" due to hovering so low to the ground in warm / thin air but anything Najam says needs to be taken with boat loads of salt coz earlier he was saying those were chinooks...putnanja wrote:The chopper was tested fully, no one is going to fly prototypes on missions. A chopper has to be used in operations sometime, and this was as good as any. Remember that this is a stealth craft, and won't be used in regular operations. It will be used only in operations where radar evasion is very important.Aaryan wrote:Again I want to ask are the Americans so incompetent that the chopper that they use for the most important mission of the decade crashed due to mechanical failure or are they so naive that they used and untested stealth chopper for a mission which was so important . so what could be the exact reason?? Was it shot down??
There have also been reports that the chopper might have hit the compound. shit happens, that is why they had extra helicopters. And the US had planned to take osama's family along, but the loss of chopper meant they had to be left behind.
Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
This is getting to be fun.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 191679.cms
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 191679.cms
Pakistani media on Saturday once again publicly named the CIA station chief in Islamabad, a breach of both protocol and trust, that is bound to enrage Washington.![]()
Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
^ I bet that the CIA "chief" is naqli onlee, for dikhawa to pakis even he probably did not know about the Osama raid until after. 

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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
Quiet right venkarlji, Not just Arnab but all fire-breathing Indian jurnos (are their any other more like Arnab?) should be eating the BRF barfi and now is certainly not the time time to be going on defensive.... faux & cnn should be towed by times now as well..... Arnab should focus on inviting more pukis like Zarafar Hilalay and skinning them on live national tv and have the likes of Bharat Verma adding inslut to injury on puki musharraf's...Actually, I feel Arnab needs help from BR when it comes to dealing with Pakis....or he should be advised to go through IDSA's Pakistan Project articles.
Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
Couple of observations from the video they showed on CNN..and other snippets that have appeared in the news.
1. The dwelling looked pretty rudimentary. A decade old TV set, clumsy wiring, an old desk..and OBL sitting on the Pakistani version of a lazy-boy (quoting CNN). While I am not saying that it should be well appointed, if this was a "bare essentials" dwelling, why build a 3-story house for him and his family? Could it have been that there were other HV targets who were captured that day? Which is being kept quiet? Could it have been that OBL and family shared the house with other AQ leadership?
2. There are claims in the media that a safehouse was established by the CIA in the vicinity for the purposes of a stakeout of OBLs compound. Couple of questions arise:
a. By the same logic that the Pakis should have known about OBL living there, shouldnt they have also figured out that one of the other houses was a CIA stakeout joint?
b. If the Pakis knew about OBL living there wouldnt they have been extra-cautious about other residents in the neighborhood? How did the CIA manage to get past that surveillance?
3. If indeed a CIA surveillance point was established in the vicinity, wouldnt it lend credence to another poster's suggestion that perhaps the assault was initiated from the ground (inserting SF members to the CIA house over days/weeks) and coordinated with a heli-evac?
1. The dwelling looked pretty rudimentary. A decade old TV set, clumsy wiring, an old desk..and OBL sitting on the Pakistani version of a lazy-boy (quoting CNN). While I am not saying that it should be well appointed, if this was a "bare essentials" dwelling, why build a 3-story house for him and his family? Could it have been that there were other HV targets who were captured that day? Which is being kept quiet? Could it have been that OBL and family shared the house with other AQ leadership?
2. There are claims in the media that a safehouse was established by the CIA in the vicinity for the purposes of a stakeout of OBLs compound. Couple of questions arise:
a. By the same logic that the Pakis should have known about OBL living there, shouldnt they have also figured out that one of the other houses was a CIA stakeout joint?
b. If the Pakis knew about OBL living there wouldnt they have been extra-cautious about other residents in the neighborhood? How did the CIA manage to get past that surveillance?
3. If indeed a CIA surveillance point was established in the vicinity, wouldnt it lend credence to another poster's suggestion that perhaps the assault was initiated from the ground (inserting SF members to the CIA house over days/weeks) and coordinated with a heli-evac?
Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
They were interviewing OBL's old pals and companions on TV and all of them mentioned he was fond of living spartan life and forced the same on his children. Pukes must have been happy to save money and providing him ordinary used manji and plywood bed. One of the things Islamist take pride is in the narrative of poverty and austerity in Prophet Muhammad's life.
Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
wow...OBL does meditation too???.... 

Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
Another tactical brilliant move...
Pakistan breaches trust, names local CIA boss(Again)
Pakistan breaches trust, names local CIA boss(Again)
Amid bitter, recriminatory exchanges between the United States and Pakistan over the Osama bin Laden extermination, planned bilateral visits of President Asif Ali Zardari to Washington DC and a return trip of President Barack Obama to Islamabad are both in jeopardy. Ties between the two sides are expected to slide further following Pakistan's "outing" of the CIA station chief in Islamabad on Saturday.
In a sign of how bad ties are between the two countries, Pakistani media on Saturday once again publicly named the CIA station chief in Islamabad, a breach of both protocol and trust, that is bound to enrage Washington.
Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/osama-bin ... d=13552384
The government today released five videos found in Osama bin Laden's compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, showing the al Qaeda leader preparing a message to the United States and watching himself on television.
Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
Love Kiyani's body language...IndraD wrote:http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2011/ ... olicy.html
can some one catch the dialogue?
Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
looks like a gay
Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
Strangely, it's not being reported in any western media yet.Amber G. wrote:Another tactical brilliant move...
Pakistan breaches trust, names local CIA boss(Again)Amid bitter, recriminatory exchanges between the United States and Pakistan over the Osama bin Laden extermination, planned bilateral visits of President Asif Ali Zardari to Washington DC and a return trip of President Barack Obama to Islamabad are both in jeopardy. Ties between the two sides are expected to slide further following Pakistan's "outing" of the CIA station chief in Islamabad on Saturday.
In a sign of how bad ties are between the two countries, Pakistani media on Saturday once again publicly named the CIA station chief in Islamabad, a breach of both protocol and trust, that is bound to enrage Washington.
Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
Hussain Haqqani tweeted that the name was pulled out from the musharraf.
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
^
No matter what Pukes do the three pigs - DI, MA, and HS will be OBLed by India in next six months
The wheels are set in motion...
No matter what Pukes do the three pigs - DI, MA, and HS will be OBLed by India in next six months

The wheels are set in motion...
Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
Was his name "Mr. Tequila" or "Dilbert Singh"?Anujan wrote:Hussain Haqqani tweeted that the name was pulled out from the musharraf.

Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
what is DI, MA, and HS?
Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan
actually he looks like a transsexual who's having trouble fitting into man's clothes....Venkarl wrote:looks like a gay
hijra or kojja...