Rudradev ji,
My respect for you and your analysis is well justified!
I think, there is a little proxy war going on in Pakistan - between Saudi Arabia and Iran. TSPA is turning more and more radical Wahhabandi. So how do the Shi'as in Pakistan react, or for that matter even Sindhis who are somewhat Sufisticated. They need to retain some hold over TSPA!
So the question becomes how the 'Sufi' Sindhis and the Shi'a can exert their influence over the TSPA. What can they offer to TSPA? Before I come to that, a diversion.
Iran and China's Interests Converge
And here come the geopolitics of the region! There are two countries that absolutely want to keep American out of Central Asia - the Chinese and the Iranians. However Pakistan is allowing America a route into Afghanistan. So Pakistan needs to brought abroad. There is the Northern Distribution Route as well, but I will get to that later.
American fight is however with the Al Qaeda, with Taliban, who are hard-line Sunnis. Basically the Shi'a and the Sufis would not really mind if the Taliban get a thrashing, however the pretext of Global War on Terror allows America to sit tight in Afghanistan, thereby posing a threat to both the underbelly of China in East Turkestan (Xinjiang) and to Iranian Baluchistan. East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) lives in the region, and then there is the threat of Jundallah in Iranian Southeast. So both Iran and China have reason to be suspicious.
Secondly it is the question of minerals of Central Asia. Why shouldn't China go for an iron grip over the minerals of Central Asia? China would love to block out India and USA from the region. Russia is just another big bear on which the lizard can sit and suck more minerals out, so Russia doesn't really bother the Chinese. Iran too had once a big influence over this region and this region formed part of its empire. So Iran as a power with potential is hoping to cash in on the mineral wealth of the region. Iran may not have the industry, but it would want control in order to sell those minerals as well. Just see the Iranians also
bidding for mining iron ore in Afghanistan.
Thirdly China wants to develop its West as much as it can and get more Hans to migrate to the Wild West. That can be possible only if industry comes up in the region, with raw materials coming from Central Asia, and trade routes becoming possible through Karakoram. There too only Pakistan can help. But to develop the region, China would want to blunt the increasing threat from Wahhabization of Uyghurs, who form the support base for ETIM. Now it is really difficult to get Muslims to leave Islam. So here too China would be hoping that the Mullahs from Iran can proselytize the Uyghurs a bit and turn them into Shi'ites. We see how the Chinese played hosts to Zardari, a Shi'a, in Urumqi the other day, who celebrated
Eid al-Fitr there with Uyghurs.
Fourthly, we see Chinese troops walking in into Gilgit, etc. These are Shia regions, and Chinese need some Iranian support to keep the locals under control as well.
Signs of Convergence
So Iranians and Chinese are on one page.
a) There is a
pipeline between Turkmenistan and China pumping Gas. When Iran's South Pars Gas Fields come online, Iran too would be sending Gas all the way to China through Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. Along this pipeline there is quite a bit of cooperation between Iran and China, and it will only get better.
b) There is going to be some cooperation between Iran, Pakistan and China in Kashmir as well. One should again consider how Press TV of Iran has been active in inciting violence in Kashmir. It was Press TV's reportage that got the Valley burning again the last time, of course with full cooperation of Pakistan. There were also strong remarks from Ali Khamenei in favor of Kashmiri 'Azadi'.
c) During Anatolian Eagle Air Exercises between Turkey and China, Iran allowed the use of its airspace. This is a big deal and shows Iranian comfort in dealing with China. The Chinese jets flew to Iran probably over Pakistani air space.
Zardari Driving Iran-Pakistan-China Strategy
a) One only needs to look at the travel plans of Zardari to know which way the wind is blowing. In July, Zardari visited Iran twice within a month. How many times has Zardari been hopping off to China? After the Obama kill, he has visited China at least twice.
Zardari, who is a Shia, is more than willing to play the middleman, the man who brings Iran and China together, the man who provides Pakistani Army with the Chinese military umbrella.
b) We saw how Gilani went to Kabul and
told Karzai that he should dump the Americans and join the Chinese, and start using RMB instead of Dollars for trading.
c) We read how PPP has made Chinese language
compulsory in Sindh schools from Class VI onward.
d) We just saw how a
Chinese company was given a contract to build a railway station just across Baimer District in Rajasthan, that means the Railway Station is going to come up in Sindh. I presume, that PPP Govt. in Sindh is actively pursuing this.
e) We saw how Zulfiqar Mirza, a PPP man,
started accusing America of trying to break up Pakistan in conjunction with his local bete noire the MQM.
Of course the Chinese always counsel their best friends to be on very good talking terms with their enemies, be it Americans or Indians. This way their conquest is made easier. One would see Mahinda Rajapakse being friendly with Indians; Prachanda being asked by the Chinese to improve ties with Indians, after he visited Beijing as his first official visit; Zardari sending their ow so pretty Hina Rabba ni Kar to India, etc. etc. This is the traditional way of the Chinese to lull the opponents to sleep. Who knows when Begum Zia Khaleda comes to power, she too would get chummy with India.
Iranians too are more than willing to rope in Pakistan. They know they probably would never get much money from Pakistan for the gas they provide to it. Pakistan can't even pay its own energy bills. But the Iranians are more than
willing to finance and build a Gas pipeline to Pakistan.
Iranians do not really gel well with TSPA, which has become more and more Wahhabi. So Iranians need Zardari, a Shi'a, as a go between.
Other Happenings
We also know that India's relations with Iran have dramatically cooled down, even as our relations with Saudi Arabia have improved. It is just USA putting pressure or does Delhi also see a pattern emerging of a Iran-Pakistan-China axis. If one may remember, the Iranians have since long not been asking Delhi about joining in the IPI Gas Pipeline.
When the Delaram-Zaranj Highway was taken over by the Taliban, India did not really make a big fuss about it, possibly because India knew that the equations in the region had changed, and India would not be using the highway anyway in any big strategic fashion.
Yes, that thing about the Northern Distribution Network. Well Chinese have
Azerbaijanis in their pocket, and they can probably put the whole region aflame whenever they want, and most probably Ali Khamenei is using his Azerbaijani connections to make sure that Azerbaijan comes out of American grip.
Summary
On the one hand we see how Wahhabandis are pushing Pakistan into a war with India. Their propaganda is anti-India and they lead the charge in Pakistan against India.
On the other hand we are seeing their rivals, the PPP, using this dynamic of anti-Indianism in the Pakistani Army to build their axis with Iran and China by feeding TSPA what it needs - Kashmir and Military Strength. Basically Sindh has gotten on the Pakistani Horse in a big way.
With all this as backdrop, Indians are being forced to develop some policy towards Pakistan. It is just that Chinese, Iranians, TSPA, 'Moderate' Pakistanis, are all out to screw India. If Delhi increases tensions with TSPA, the Iranian-Pakistani-Chinese Axis profits from that. Delhi may know what is happening, but India which plays defensive strategy finds itself without any meaningful cards in hand. To create options, one has to leave house.
Don't know if it is a typo or their level of understanding.
