India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

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Amber G.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Amber G. »

vina wrote:
Sanku wrote:So Turkey point has in reality added a Thermal power plant while the new NPPs are "planned" :)
So, pliss to answer this kweschun Maharaj Ji. If there are already some 11xx odd MW of gas based thermal power, why not leverage that gas handling infra and put 5 * 11xx more gas based power ? You don't need to "plan" to put any NPPs at all, tested or 'untested' .

Zimble no ?
Just a small tidbit.. as Turkey Point is in the news...(which was somehow missed by google/wiki warriors when claiming that gas plants would come out in a jiffy while NPP will take decades just to plan and good enough only for mocking..)
..
When Turkey Point units 3 and 4 are going to have routine refueling outage some time this year they will also implement the uprates of about 15%!

The uprate was already approved by NRC (from 700 MWe to 820) and the improvements are scheduled this year ..
Increased power at FPL’s Turkey Point plant approved by Nuclear Regulatory Commission
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Amber G. »

amit wrote:
]Reports of the death of the US nuclear industry are highly premature
Can you please tell me who said that US nuclear industry was dead? I do not think that anyone has said that US nuclear industry is dead. I have not and I do not think Theo did either. If he did perhaps you can take it up with him.

However what I said,...


Amit - WoW! obfuscation still continues even with such a simple question...

Let me just make a few excerpts from actual quotes.... see if they make any kind of mathematical sense given the graph posted just a few posts above by me ...

All quotes from Sanku in just a last few posts..
Nuclear power is not happening in US, one off ground breaking (not construction) apart. Fact.
The question is that whether the nuclear industry has any hope in US or not
So part of my assertion is shown to be correct. The fuel mix is shifting. They are indeed not going for nuclear in greater net amount of generation. (since demand in flat and mix decreasing)
going from 400 to 800+ (TWh) in NET amount is not flat...

Let us see, if that gets clarified or more obfuscations continues...

Meanwhile news flash for those still repeat these incredible silly statements ... (many still don't realize that) from here
U.S. electricity demand has risen more than 80 percent since the NRC last approved a construction permit in 1979. Unbeknownst to most people is that at least half of that demand has been met by nuclear facilities that have increased their rate of production by 40 percent during much of that time.
Not to mention there is as we speak there is ANS annul meeting going on in Chicage... may post some exciting stuff from there..
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by amit »

Sanku wrote:Can you please tell me who said that US nuclear industry was dead? I do not think that anyone has said that US nuclear industry is dead. I have not and I do not think Theo did either. If he did perhaps you can take it up with him.
It's irrelevant as to who said that US nuclear industry is dead and so you don't need to bring Theo into the discussion. Trust me if I need to clarify something with him I don't need your suggestion/permission to do so. So just stick to what you said - a friendly piece of advice.

Coming back to your point above. I'm glad that you finally admit that the US nuclear industry is not dead. This is a a major breakthrough. You are admitting, even though in a very backhanded manner that the your earlier response to a post of mine that was not even directed towards you was ill thought out.
Sanku wrote:
amit wrote: It seems the reports of the death of nuclear industry in the US of A are highly premature.
Sigh,,,, no problem; once more

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/exe ... ummary.cfm

Best case projection of electricity growth considering recovery 0.8% per year (in real life probably declining considering that there is no recovery)

Nuclear share in fuel mix for electricity declining from 20% to 18%. Best case.

Those are best case numbers. In reality probably both will drop sharply.

Now coming to your other points (I'll only stick to a few of them because the rest, frankly in my opinion is gibberish not worth responding to):
So net net are looking at 82 - 4 reactors lesser by 2035.

This together with the fact that even Nuclear utilities are shying away from creating new ones -- over next 20 years -- the stall will turn to a decline.

I do not think US will ever allow Nuclear sector to die, but a decline is very much on the cards -- inevitably so.
Sorry this does not pass your own smell test. Remember in your previous post regarding the EIA figures of 18 per cent translating to 894 billion KwH, you wrote:
Sanku wrote:Can you tell me what is the one thing that I have said which is proven wrong (you cant say my prediction for 2035 is proven wrong) since quite clearly it can be proven right or wrong only in 2035.

(I do hope you have managed to figure out the difference between projection and something that has already happened)
I have no intention or interest to wait till 2032 to prove how wrong you are in your "prediction". But I really like the way you blatantly cherry pick. When the EIA numbers go against your worldview, you say projections are useless and then you turnaround and with a straight face you make your own "projections/predictions". :eek:

You know what, cry me blue but somehow I give more credence to EIA's predictions rather than your predictions. :roll:
OTOH -- I do think that Japan and Germany will finally completely move away from Nuclear energy in next 10-20 years time frame (if not earlier)
Another projection which is not even worth replying to. And since you can make predictions/projections, let me make mine.

You are totally off in your worldview. Both Japan and Germany will very much be using nuclear 20 years from now even though in percentage terms of the total electricity output it would be lower than today. However, since the pie will increase, as in the EIA estimates for the US, the actual output of electricity would probably be higher than it is today.

One other point that you should note, even though it's amazing that one needs to drive home this point. Electricity generation is measured by the amount of electricity generated not by the number of plants being put up. The way you are bean counting the number of plants to gauge the health of the nuclear industry, the next time you would probably claim that 2X750 MW > 1X1500 MW since the former has two plants while the later has one plant.

Oh an by the way, I've achieved my objective of showing exactly what I wanted to show, so please feel free to have the last word.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by amit »

Amber G. wrote: FWIW here is that "decline"
Image

(Hint: And no, US production did not fall to zero even in 2010 or 2011 or 2012 :-o ..)

And ad absurdum some are claiming it as a "fact" that nuclear power in US is declining.. :eek:
Amber thanks for your posts. This chart nails it. Sanku ji with his infinite gyan has been saying that US nuclear power generation has stagnated from the 1970s onwards. Well, well... Unfortunately this chart cannot be passed off as "projections", it tabulates what has happened.

This is what Sanku ji said:
Sanku wrote:However what I said, and I will say again, is that US nuclear industry has "stalled" -- it is currently moving only from the momentum of the past, i.e. the sunk costs into NPP industry pre 1970s. (Momentum == money put into various projects, constructions etc) -- Since 70s it has not moved, but has been overtaken by gas etc.
If the industry is just moving "only from the momentum of the past" it must be helluva momentum to double generation from 1985 to 2009!

Coming back to the numbers for the US, EIA takes this forward till 2035, from 806 billion KwH in 2010 to 894 billion KwH in 2035 and this is despite the cheap availability of gas. That will be more than double what the next biggest producer would be producing. So much for decline, eh?

The other important data point in the EIA estimation is the even in 2035, nuclear will have a bigger share of the pie than renewables, 18 per cent as opposed to 16 per cent.

Ultimately it's good that we have these discussions, however unpleasant it may be to participate in them. Hopefully folks reading this thread get a better sense of what is the real picture. And I think it works, the recent poll you conducted was the clincher as far as I'm concerned. :-)
Theo_Fidel

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Theo_Fidel »

amit wrote:If the industry is just moving "only from the momentum of the past" it must be helluva momentum to double generation from 1985 to 2009!
I don't know about momentum but all this increase is from better PLF. Nuclear plants in the USA used to suffer from very poor PLF. As late as the mid 90's I'm aware of a couple of plants here in the Midwest that ran at 45% plf if that can be believed. PLF's are now north of 90% on average. But I think there is a limit to how much more they can squeeze out of the same plants, esp. as the equipment gets more brittle. At San Onofre an attempt to, amongst other things, increase power output by squeezing the equipment has caused a catastrophic failure that now threatens to shut the entire plant. In Florida an attempt to get more powerful turbines into an existing containment dome has caused a structural failure of the dome itself, leaving the plant in the most likely to be shut category. There doesn't appear to be much more play left in the existing plants.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by vina »

Fact is, in the US, coal is around 45% and Nuke is around 20% of generation. Now, if Nuke weren't there and US had gone the coal route, the extra coal PER year the US would have been burning all these years is of the order of 450 Million tons of coal . India's current production is of the order of 700 million tons and consumption is around 800million, just about getting to a billion tons per annum soon.

Now the US produces around a billion tons of coal per year. The US has far higher reserves and better quality coal than India on an average. There is simply not too much headroom for growth of coal in India. If we expand coal production, we are going to see a China like spurt, where production went from 1 billion tons per annum to 3 billion tons in a decade.

That sort of thing is simply not sustainable in India. It makes no sense to destroy forests, alienate the people from the land, build massive rail links for coal transport. The missing part that China didn't do was go Nuke. That 30% or so missing Nuke is one of the reason they are burning 3 billion tons of coal. The other reason is of course Chinese power plants are crap on an average (the equivalent US coal usage for the coal based power they consume would be only 1.6 billion tons.. China therefore wastes 1.2 billion tons of coal PER Year!) .

We should not make that mistake. As the demand takes off from now, we should start building nukes, including imports and also let the private sector in to putting up nuke plants. That is the only way we can meet the kind of near vertical demand curve (like China faced) in a sustainable manner going forward for the next 50 to 100 years.

Thank God for MMS. He knew the issues involved and did whatever it took to get the 123 in place. Kudos to him.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by amit »

Theo_Fidel wrote:
amit wrote:If the industry is just moving "only from the momentum of the past" it must be helluva momentum to double generation from 1985 to 2009!
I don't know about momentum but all this increase is from better PLF. Nuclear plants in the USA used to suffer from very poor PLF. As late as the mid 90's I'm aware of a couple of plants here in the Midwest that ran at 45% plf if that can be believed. PLF's are now north of 90% on average. But I think there is a limit to how much more they can squeeze out of the same plants, esp. as the equipment gets more brittle. At San Onofre an attempt to, amongst other things, increase power output by squeezing the equipment has caused a catastrophic failure that now threatens to shut the entire plant. In Florida an attempt to get more powerful turbines into an existing containment dome has caused a structural failure of the dome itself, leaving the plant in the most likely to be shut category. There doesn't appear to be much more play left in the existing plants.
Theo,

You of all people should know that vitality or otherwise of the power sector is ultimately measured by the amount of electricity it generates and not by the number of power plants in operation or the average PLF.

Right now we have a number of data points which we can use to connect the dots IMO.

1) Between 1985 to 2009 nuclear power generation doubled from 400 billion KwH to 800 billion KwH.

2) You add a data point that PLF's have become better. However, for doubling of generation that would imply a doubling of PLF throughout the industry over this period!

3) Many of US plants are either at mid life or running on extension programmes.

4) So far there have orders to build two new plants, a first after Three Mile. However, there has been a set back (in timelines) due to Fukushima Daiichi.

5) EIA says that US nuclear power generation would go up from 806 billion KwH to 894 billion KwH by 2030.

Now theses five points paint a picture for me. Taking your POV of better PLF then we can say that the doubling of generation between 1985 to 2009 has been mainly on account of better PLF and plant expansions. Now that would imply that PLFs are already in their high Nineties and so there's very little avenue for bettering it. OTOH, many of the nuclear power plants are coming to the end of their lives. Now into this mix we have EIA saying, not only would current generation be maintained, there would actually be an almost 100 million KwH increase in generation capacity (100 because if we take 90 per cent PLF then the capacity would be thereabouts).

Now one can do two things here. One is, like one of our famous posters, say the EIA forecast is bakwash. The other more rational approach is to conclude that EIA has factored in new builds between now and 2030. Now will the builds actually happen? Time will tell but almost all official reportage from the US shows there's determination to build and EIA's findings cannot be ignored because if we rubbish its nuclear projections there's no way we can say its non-nuclear projections, like Gas 27 per cent, Coal 39 per cent etc are spot on. [This is a point Sanku ji does not understand as he uses the same report to claim gas will takeover from nuclear].

We can either rubbish the entire report or we have to take its nuclear projections as being credible because EIA is not a nuclear industry interest group it is a US govt body which looks at total energy requirements of the US.

Bottomline is all indications are that unless something unexpected happens, the US is sticking to nuclear in a big way.

PS: EIA also says that in 2030 renewables would be 16 per cent as opposed to 18 per cent for nuclear. Says something doesn't it?
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Sanku »

amit wrote:
Sanku wrote:Can you please tell me who said that US nuclear industry was dead? I do not think that anyone has said that US nuclear industry is dead. I have not and I do not think Theo did either. If he did perhaps you can take it up with him.
It's irrelevant as to who said that US nuclear industry is dead and so you don't need to bring Theo into the discussion. Trust me if I need to clarify something with him I don't need your suggestion/permission to do so. So just stick to what you said - a friendly piece of advice.
Well Amit, first of all

1) If it is irrelevant who said nuclear energy is dead, then you should not have made the following claim
amit wrote:Hasn't the resident expert here already pronounced that Nuclear power industry dead in Japan, just as he has now proclaimed nuke power dead in the US despite it producing 806 billion KwH of power in 2010?
You should not make accusations, which you cant back up.

2) Kindly lay off the advice. I will do precisely as I will please, unless crossing a mod red line.

Similarly, I see you are continuing to knock down strawmen attacking statements which have not been made. If you wish to discuss something I said, rather than your personal interpretation of the same. I will be glad to engage in debate.

Meanwhile I have no clue as to the statement attributed to me, since they have been picked at random from different posts and put together. Sorry cant answer.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Sanku »

vina wrote: We should not make that mistake. As the demand takes off from now, we should start building nukes, including imports and also let the private sector in to putting up nuke plants. That is the only way we can meet the kind of near vertical demand curve (like China faced) in a sustainable manner going forward for the next 50 to 100 years.

Thank God for MMS. He knew the issues involved and did whatever it took to get the 123 in place. Kudos to him.
There are multiple issues here, in the picture you painted, you have left out some critical element

1) 123 by no stretch address the various things you say are needed for nuclear resurgence. (Pvt sect involvement etc etc) As such it is not correct to plan on things that dont exist.

Just like breeders continue in mil domain, and any discussion around using imported nuclear material in mil sector is moot, similarly are the questions of Pvt participation etc.

To get to any of the many steps mentioned, massive ground work is needed, in terms of setting up independent nuclear regulators, laws regulating the sector, well defined liablity laws and such like.

None of this is remotely in pipeline.

2) What can be discussed in terms of nuclear power -- is what is based on current reality. The current reality is that 123 allows for import of yellow cake for some facilities in return for following the terms of Hyde act, primarily opening up our Nuclear sector for inspection (and shutting down Dhruv)

That is all that 123 does.

Ascribing other utilities to the same is not realistic assessment of the situation IMVHO.

3) In terms of setting up Nuclear power through imported LWRs, the constraints are all very well known and have been discussed, anyway, since we are going over it again, let me list the same. They are PWHR vs LWR choice at a fundamental level, cost of imports, issues with land acquisition for ultra mega NPPs, buffer zone etc. issues of strategic dependence which defeats the purpose of energy independence.

Net net -- I do not think that there is any merit in assuming that 123 would result in change in nuclear generation in any substantial +ve manner.

At best this is shaping up for 2-3 more Dabhols.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Sanku »

Amber G. wrote: going from 400 to 800+ (TWh) in NET amount is not flat...
.
The nuclear sector in US has stalled because the number of reactors ordered since 1974 == 0.

Why then has electricity production increased from same reactors?

Because in 1970s, the utilization factor was 50% and now it has been coaxed to 90%.

Also there were a number of reactors which were ordered pre 1974 which came online only in 1980-90s (ref http://ei.haas.berkeley.edu/pdf/working ... /WP218.pdf)

It has taken 30 years for US NPPs to learn to optimally use their production facilities -- and god only knows what will be the utilization figures for the next gen plants and when will they be online.

In addition NPPs show massive lags from the time of order to construction (refer to the previous paper once more), from minimum of 8 years to maximum of 26 with avg 14 -- and this was in a era of much easier environmental controls and cheaper costs.

Without new generation construction, this figure cant go up. The old reactors will retire and new ones are not being made -- and no extra juice can be coaxed from the existing ones like was done since 1970-1990 period -- its quite as simple as that.

Here is a picture of the overall electricity gen since 1980 for comparative figure.
The fact that US nuclear industry is stalled and is not looking rosy, is a statement which has been made pretty often by the top most people at the helm of US nuclear industry -- as constant complain while looking for support from GoTUS -- so while all the personal attacks are being made on me, folks should also consider why the nuclear industry folks are themselves saying what they are.

Here is the conclusion of the above paper
The chairman of one of the largest U.S. nuclear companies recently said that his company would
not break ground on a new nuclear plant in the United States until the price of natural gas was
more than double today’s level and carbon emissions cost $25 of ton.13 This seems to pretty well
summarize the current prospects for U.S. nuclear power. Yes, there is a confluence of factors that
could make nuclear power a viable, economic option. Otherwise, it seems unlikely that there will
be much of a renaissance.
12
Last edited by Sanku on 28 Jun 2012 19:12, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by amit »

Sanku wrote:
amit wrote:Hasn't the resident expert here already pronounced that Nuclear power industry dead in Japan, just as he has now proclaimed nuke power dead in the US despite it producing 806 billion KwH of power in 2010?
You should not make accusations, which you cant back up.
Blast from the past, posted without comment:
Sanku wrote:As the picture from Japan emerges more clearly as the dust settles down, it is clear that Japanese Govt and people have realized that they have dug themselves into a big hole and are now working hard to get out. Of course they wont go back to low levels of use of NPPs soon, since there is tremendous effort to free itself of the plants, with each plant decommissioning itself being a protracted difficult expensive and manpower intensive process, along with issues if suddenly the established power sources all went blink together.

However the direction has been set, Japan is drawing back -- why did they do that? After all Fuk-D disaster was not as bad as it could have been, I mean the place barely survived getting into a raging fire in Nuclear plant spewing the radiation through air (rather than drawing it out through water and dumping it in sea) -- so people should actually consider it a proof that NPPs can be handled even in difficult situations?

The answer to the above question has been answered to a unequivocal no by stake holders despite that.

Why?

1) It became clear to Japanese Govt that the Nuclear industry experts, despite all the bravado, had basically no clue as to what was happening, what to do to solve it etc.
2) Spray and pray as a solution to Nuclear disasters was not considered scientific enough, despite the "expert" opinion.
3) The govt realized that the Nuclear industry was deeply incestuous and therefore, trusting it was very difficult. They could not take Nuclear industry at its face value on any projections and calculations they have made, their credibility is reset to real levels now, that the carefully manufactured ballon has burst, reality not caring about "KEEP OUT" signs that the self proclaimed guardians of knowledge and created to hide behind.

I congratulate PM Nato Kan on real leadership, strength under fire, and wish a Japanese people all the best in their future free from Nuclear and other externally imposed shackles.
[The color bolds added by me, the rest is from the original post]

Link

PS: I could quote a few more posts of a similar nature but don't want to add to the noise.

Added later: Maybe I should add one comment before Sanku ji does. He did not use the word dead. So...
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Sanku »

amit wrote:
Added later: Maybe I should add one comment before Sanku ji does. He did not use the word dead. So...
Thank you for bringing up that post again. However considering that it has nothing to do with the discussion at hand, and clearly also seen by the fact that you fully realize it -- I do not understand you reasons for putting it forth at this point.

In fact in that post I had predicted that Japanese govt will work aggressively towards moving away from removing nuclear power as an option and I had not expected that they will drop using NPPs altogether.

As it turned out, my predictions were conservative. After I had made the post, Japan shut down all its NPPs and only now are the discussions of opening two of those are being considered, that too because of dire situation and in face of severe critisim.

Things really did get speeded up in Japan.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by amit »

^^^^^^^

What can one say to a comment like that? :-)
Theo_Fidel

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Theo_Fidel »

Amit,

Also several plants have also been uprated with newer more efficient equipment.

At the same time coal plants too have upped their game to 80% plf now I believe. Yet very few new ones have been built so coal too has increased it generation but you would not call it as having an increasing profile.

In policy circles nuclear power is set for sunset by 2050. Obama changed it due to massive cash lobbying by the industry. On the ground nothing has changed. It is possible peoples opinion could change but on the ground NIMBY rules big time.

Indian nuclear power is vulnerable to the same dynamic. There is unanimity amongst the policy types but there is no such consensus amongst the people.
----------------------------------------------

WRT coal consumption the US plants have been upgrading gradually to super critical technology. Increasing efficiencies from 25%-30% to 40% to 45% and above. Right now there is a strong push to move on to a Brayton heat cycle CO2 turbine (non-combustion). This would push efficiencies to 50%-55% and rising. So even though coal consumption is stable and number of coal plants remain fixed, look for the output of coal fired plants to keep going up.
Last edited by Theo_Fidel on 28 Jun 2012 20:24, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by vishvak »

Theo_Fidel wrote:In policy circles nuclear power is set for sunset by 2050. Obama changed it due to massive cash lobbying by the industry. On the ground nothing has changed. It is possible peoples opinion could change but on the ground NIMBY rules big time.
Obama is the most powerful person in USA. It can also happen that opinions changed because of substantial nuke power requirements beyond 2050, which we will have evidence for over period of time and therefore can not be ignored or put ? on.

In any case, we Indians need to have our own interests. Any ? on nuke power and research in India, as compared with ? on nuke power in USA, staggering in size even now, & elsewhere may only have to be considered only in limits of of requirements in India which is huge to say the least as the nuke power is just about 2-3% of total energy mix.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by KLP Dubey »

The "patient" has recovered, got up from the bed, and left the hospital, yet some of the "docs" are still insisting he is dead or dying. :rotfl: The latest tactic seems to be to try and associate support for nuclear power with certain specific personalities like Manmohan and Barack. The implication being suggested is that once these guys "go away", so will the nuclear power surge. Thankfully there are many sane, visionary, and clear-thinking people making energy policy.

The simple fact is that India is now in a position to produce as much nuclear power as the US today, within 10-15 years. There is no real barrier. Again, it should not escape anyone's notice that the US produces as much nuclear power today as almost the *entire* Indian power sector, and that too with a "stagnant" inventory of older reactors. There is no "magic" to be done in order to get to those kind of numbers. Just plain common sense and consistent policy.

As for what is happening in the US, Japan, France etc...it is good to keep track of things and hope that they figure out what is good for them. As far as Bharat is concerned, ramping up nuclear power is most certainly in our national interest. Continuing to rely on coal is not. As for renewables like solar/wind/geothermal - they are not a significant factor in the calculations at present.

KL
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by pradeepe »

KLP Dubey wrote: As for what is happening in the US, Japan, France etc...it is good to keep track of things and hope that they figure out what is good for them. As far as Bharat is concerned, ramping up nuclear power is most certainly in our national interest. Continuing to rely on coal is not. As for renewables like solar/wind/geothermal - they are not a significant factor in the calculations at present.

KL
+1 to that. I do hope we push this as fast as possible. Rabble rousers at some point with various politico-business axes to grind cannot be allowed to hold the country hostage. The next generation coming on line with fresh new legs and ideas deserves much better than a nation starved of enegry. The situation currently is as bad as it gets. And yes there are lives being affected here right now, a lot more than those lost at fukushima.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Sanku »

KLP Dubey wrote:The "patient" has recovered, got up from the bed, and left the hospital, yet some of the "docs" are still insisting he is dead or dying. :rotfl: The latest tactic seems to be to try and associate support for nuclear power with certain specific personalities like Manmohan and Barack. The implication being suggested is that once these guys "go away", so will the nuclear power surge. Thankfully there are many sane, visionary, and clear-thinking people making energy policy.

The simple fact is that India is now in a position to produce as much nuclear power as the US today, within 10-15 years. There is no real barrier. Again, it should not escape anyone's notice that the US produces as much nuclear power today as almost the *entire* Indian power sector, and that too with a "stagnant" inventory of older reactors. There is no "magic" to be done in order to get to those kind of numbers. Just plain common sense and consistent policy.

As for what is happening in the US, Japan, France etc...it is good to keep track of things and hope that they figure out what is good for them. As far as Bharat is concerned, ramping up nuclear power is most certainly in our national interest. Continuing to rely on coal is not. As for renewables like solar/wind/geothermal - they are not a significant factor in the calculations at present.

KL
Dubey-ji -- the numbers of US has not escaped any ones notice. But if US numbers dont matter, as you say, why bring that in the picture?

On one hand everyone is quoting US numbers, -- OTOH they dont matter.

I think people should make up their minds on taking one consistent stand and then perhaps some clarity would emerge.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Sanku »

pradeepe wrote: Rabble rousers at some point with various politico-business axes to grind cannot be allowed to hold the country hostage..
That's just rhetoric you know, in fact can even be considered rabble rousing, at least I would consider it something like that.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Amber G. »

amit wrote:
Amber G. wrote: FWIW here is that "decline"
Image

(Hint: And no, US production did not fall to zero even in 2010 or 2011 or 2012 :-o ..)

And ad absurdum some are claiming it as a "fact" that nuclear power in US is declining.. :eek:
Amber thanks for your posts. This chart nails it. Sanku ji with his infinite gyan has been saying that US nuclear power generation has stagnated from the 1970s onwards. Well, well... Unfortunately this chart cannot be passed off as "projections", it tabulates what has happened.
Thanks for the comment. Yes, people will get 2+2 = 4 even if those "two's" are "extraordinary small" or have "small PLF" ( :(( ) " value... and for those 2.5 posters still arguing that simple math says more about them than the underlying math.
:roll:
Ultimately it's good that we have these discussions, however unpleasant it may be to participate in them. Hopefully folks reading this thread get a better sense of what is the real picture. And I think it works, the recent poll you conducted was the clincher as far as I'm concerned. :-)
Agree with that. Thanks to Ramanaji who asked me to lead and do some educating of folks post Fukushima. ( Noting that so many scientifically inaccurate statements were being doled out by ddm's and even some posters here) And yes, the poll did show that most people are not fooled by silly claims of "1,400,000 people being killed by radiation" type irrational fear-mongering.
KLP Dubey wrote:The "patient" has recovered, got up from the bed, and left the hospital, yet some of the "docs" are still insisting he is dead or dying. :rotfl: The latest tactic seems to be to try and associate support for nuclear power with certain specific personalities like Manmohan and Barack. The implication being suggested is that once these guys "go away", so will the nuclear power surge. Thankfully there are many sane, visionary, and clear-thinking people making energy policy.

.KL
Thanks for nice post(s) and welcome to BRF :) .
As for what is happening in the US, Japan, France etc...it is good to keep track of things...
Nicely put.
Last edited by Amber G. on 29 Jun 2012 01:53, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Amber G. »

...[doom and gloom of US Nuclear] is a statement which has been made pretty often by the top most people at the helm of US nuclear industry


That is true, but then "top most people" also routinely predict

:eek: The World Will End In 2012 – Proven Scientifically :eek:
Last edited by Amber G. on 29 Jun 2012 09:28, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Amber G. »

^^^ Seriously IMO one ought to listen to experts, knowledgeable ones etc..keeping, her own swayam pragya.. so here is one example of what experts are really saying about future of US Nuclear Energy...

For those who do not know, Steven Chu is a noble prize winning physicist.
He is also United States Secretary of Energy. (Current) (Obama's nominee)

Why We Need More Nuclear Power

By Steven Chu

As you'll see, we need nuclear power as part of a comprehensive solution: investing in energy efficiency, wind, solar, geothermal, carbon capture, energy storage, electric vehicles, and more. In doing so, we are sparking a new industrial revolution that will create millions of new jobs here in the United States and lay the foundation for America's long-term economic prosperity.
More from more context...
Why We Need More Nuclear Power
by Steven Chu

There has been a vigorous discussion here on Facebook since my last post about President Obama's announcement of a loan guarantee for what will become the first nuclear power plant to break ground in nearly three decades. I'd like to make a few points to continue the discussion.

Some of you expressed a preference for solar and wind power over nuclear energy. I share your enthusiasm for these renewable sources of energy, and, because of the success of the Recovery Act, we are on pace to double our renewable energy capacity by 2012.

But no single technology will provide all of the answers. Wind and solar now provide about 3 percent of our electricity, compared to 20 percent for nuclear. While we are working at hard as we can to promote energy efficiency in every part sector of America, it is likely that our energy demand will continue to rise. In fact, the Energy Information Administration projects an almost 20 percent increase in overall energy demand and over 30 percent increase in electricity demand over the next 25 years under current laws. If we want to make a serious dent in carbon dioxide emissions -- not to mention having cleaner air and cleaner water -- then nuclear power has to be on the table.

Also remember that wind and solar are intermittent energy sources. The sun isn't always shining, and the wind isn't always blowing. Without technological breakthroughs in efficient, large scale energy storage, it will be difficult to rely on intermittent renewables for much more than 20-30 percent of our electricity. To overcome this problem, we are pursuing breakthrough approaches to grid-scale energy storage as well as stimulating the wide-spread adoption of known technologies such as pumped hydro energy storage. But nuclear power can provide large amounts of carbon-free power that is always available.


To make an obvious point - before someone starts with another round of ridiculous "facts/projections" he does not mention "death" of nuclear plants either...

Hope this is helpful.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Amber G. »

Something caught my eye .. Amitjii may already know this, if not, he may find it interesting :)
amit wrote: ....

You know what, cry me blue but somehow I give more credence to EIA's predictions rather than your predictions. :roll:
OTOH -- I do think that Japan and Germany will finally completely move away from Nuclear energy in next 10-20 years time frame (if not earlier)
Another projection which is not even worth replying to. And since you can make predictions/projections, let me make mine.

You are totally off in your worldview. Both Japan and Germany will very much be using nuclear 20 years from now even though in percentage terms of the total electricity output.
Of course, no one can predict with certainty about what Japan will do in next 20 years... but some interesting items .. showing not everyone wants to give up NPP's ..

First.. In the news (x-post from other thread)
Japan utility shareholders vote to keep nuclear power
Shareholders of Japan's electricity companies voted on Wednesday to stick with nuclear power despite rising public opposition ...
...
The votes against abandoning nuclear power at the annual general meetings of utilities including Kansai Electric Power Co and Tokyo Electric Power Co (Tepco), the company at the centre of last year's Fukushima disaster, come days before the country's first reactors are due to come back online
..."I have said that nuclear energy is an important source of power that we will utilise," Kansai Electric President Makoto Yagi said after the meeting. "There is absolutely no plan to scrap nuclear power."...
Other item from today's paper, let me put here ( Link is at the end of the post)..

.. World's largest NPP plant, according to its owner, also have a plan to be started...

Interestingly this plant was shutdown because of an earthquake in 2007 ..

Of course, some are saying it is just wishful thinking...
The owner is serious though, per that article..
Guess where that NPP plant is?

In Japan! :-o

Tepco Plans for Restart of World’s Largest Nuclear Plant
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Amber G. »

...[doom and gloom of US Nuclear] is a statement which has been made pretty often by the top most people at the helm of US nuclear industry


For people who can't interpret even a simple graph, (and for those who can too :) ) ... breaking news from today..looks like those top most people do want to clarify ..

Westinghouse and Curtiss-Wright Sign Strategic Nuclear Alliance
PITTSBURGH, June 28, 2012 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Westinghouse Electric Company announced today that it has signed a strategic alliance agreement with Curtiss-Wright Corporation's Flow Control business segment's Electro-Mechanical Division (EMD) business unit to jointly pursue and develop business opportunities for the refurbishment of large motors for commercial nuclear power applications in North America and to collaborate on new technology development.

The alliance will enable both companies and their customers to benefit from the combined capabilities and resources of two very experienced nuclear energy organizations. Westinghouse and Curtiss-Wright have several ongoing business agreements in support of operating nuclear plants around the world and AP1000® units under construction in China and the United States.

"This is a significant agreement for us as it marks another milestone illustrating Curtiss-Wright's long-standing commitment to the worldwide nuclear power market," said Martin R. Benante, chairman and CEO, Curtiss-Wright Corporation. "We are proud to continue our long-standing, strategic partnership with Westinghouse. With this agreement, we can leverage our joint capabilities to create immense value for current and future customers."

"The global nuclear energy industry has significant potential for growth and offers opportunities for both Westinghouse and Curtiss-Wright," said Ric Perez, chief operating officer of Westinghouse Electric Company. "Building on many significant years of combined experience and know-how makes sense to compete in a high-technology marketplace. Our respective nuclear businesses are combining forces aimed at strengthening our ability to compete effectively and improving the technologies and product offerings to customers to make the most of future opportunities."

Westinghouse Electric Company, a group company of Toshiba Corporation (tky:6502), is the world's pioneering nuclear energy company and is a leading supplier of nuclear plant products and technologies to utilities throughout the world. Westinghouse supplied the world's first pressurized water reactor in 1957 in Shippingport, Pa. Today, Westinghouse technology is the basis for approximately one-half of the world's operating nuclear plants, including 60 percent of those in the United States.

Curtiss-Wright Corporation is an innovative engineering company that provides highly engineered, critical function products, systems and services in the areas of flow control, motion control and metal treatment to the defense, energy and commercial/industrial markets. The legacy company of Glenn Curtiss and the Wright brothers, Curtiss-Wright has a long tradition of design and manufacturing innovation along with long-standing customer relationships. The company employs approximately 8,900 people worldwide. For more information, visit http://www.curtisswright.com .
There you have it sir... :shock:
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by vina »

Sanku wrote:]The fact that US nuclear industry is stalled and is not looking rosy, is a statement which has been made pretty often by the top most people at the helm of US nuclear industry -- as constant complain while looking for support from GoTUS
For once, I have to agree with you. Yes, the US and indeed global Nuke industry was "stalled" from mid late 70s to around 2005 or so. Part of that has to do with the fact that we enjoyed RECORD low oil prices and energy prices (remember $18 per barrel of oil during Clinton's years).

While that stalling was indeed true, it doesn't mean that the industry was dead by any means. The engineering base is largely alive (how could the enhancements and capacity factors have gone up otherwise ?).

What lagged behind truly was leap changes in designs , that somehow seems to have plateaued in the 60s and 70s at best. Nothing fundamentally new. We need extremely small form factors, high capacity, high reliability, low maintenance and low cost reactors. What we have today are big and very expensive and take a long time in construction and commissioning. We need something that can be just rolled off a trailer into a site and get started ,notice there are efforts in that direction today. The Gen III, Gen IV smell too much like an entrenched industry trying to push their own thinking of "innovation" to the masses. Nothing fundamentally disruptive out there. The field is screaming for something like that.

If the capital costs of Nukes crash, it will be ultra competitive with anything out there, including natural gas. Nuke cost is front loaded into capital cost. That is the fundamental problem.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by amit »

Amber,

Thanks again for the links. Regarding nuclear power in the US, there's a combination of wistful thinking (by some otherwise knowledgeable posters who are too invested in the positions they have taken in this debate) and sheer ignorance and lack of understanding (among a few others).

For a 101 on US plans on nuclear power this gives a good primer. And it's current, updated on June 6.
* The USA is the world's largest producer of nuclear power, accounting for more than 30% of worldwide nuclear generation of electricity.
* The country's 104 nuclear reactors produced 807 billion kWh in 2010, over 20% of total electrical output.
* Following a 30-year period in which few new reactors were built, it is expected that 4-6 new units may come on line by 2020, the first of those resulting from 16 licence applications made since mid-2007 to build 24 new nuclear reactors.
* However, lower gas prices since 2009 have put the economic viability of some of these projects in doubt.
* Government policy changes since the late 1990s have helped pave the way for significant growth in nuclear capacity. Government and industry are working closely on expedited approval for construction and new plant designs.
Note in the US electricity generation is driven purely by commercial considerations. And thus it's gas prices (more details later in this post) which has put dampner on new nuclear builds and not some deep, ethical dilemma among the leaders of the US of A as one brilliant poster here is trying to portray. But it's also useful to remember that low gas prices is/will be a transient phenomenon and US is benefiting from that due to some peculiarities of its geographic location.
In 2010, the US electricity generation was 4361 billion kWh gross, 46% of it from coal-fired plant, 23% from gas, 19% nuclear and 6.5% from hydro. Annual electricity demand is projected to increase to 5,000 billion kWh in 2030, though in the short term it is depressed and is not expected to recover to the 2007 level until about 2015. Annual per capita electricity consumption is currently around 12,400 kWh. Total capacity is 1027 GWe, less than one tenth of which is nuclear.

The USA has 104 nuclear power reactors in 31 states, operated by 30 different power companies. In 2009 these plants achieved a capacity factor of 91.1%, generating 799 billion kWh and accounting for 20% of total electricity generated. In 2010, 839 billion kWh gross (807 billion kWh net) was generated by nuclear plant.

There are 69 pressurized water reactors (PWRs) with combined capacity of about 67 GWe and 35 boiling water reactors (BWRs) with combined capacity of about 34 GWe – for a total capacity of 101,263 MWe (see Nuclear Power in the USA Appendix 1: US Operating Nuclear Reactors). Almost all the US nuclear generating capacity comes from reactors built between 1967 and 1990. There have been no new construction starts since 1977, largely because for a number of years gas generation was considered more economically attractive and because construction schedules were frequently extended by opposition, compounded by heightened safety fears following the Three Mile Island accident in 1979. A further PWR – Watts Bar 2 – is expected to start up by 2013 following Tennessee Valley Authority's (TVA's) decision in 2007 to complete the construction of the unit.

Despite a near halt in new construction of more than 30 years, US reliance on nuclear power has continued to grow. In 1980, nuclear plants produced 251 billion kWh, accounting for 11% of the country's electricity generation. In 2008, that output had risen to 809 billion kWh and nearly 20% of electricity, providing more than 30% of the electricity generated from nuclear power worldwide. Much of the increase came from the 47 reactors, all approved for construction before 1977, that came on line in the late 1970s and 1980s, more than doubling US nuclear generation capacity. The US nuclear industry has also achieved remarkable gains in power plant utilisation through improved refuelling, maintenance and safety systems at existing plants.
All the data and numbers have been discussed here but nevertheless IMO it's useful to have them in one place for reference.
While there are plans for a number of new reactors (see section on Preparing for new build below), the prospect of low natural gas prices continuing for several years has dampened these plans and probably no more than four new units will come on line by 2020.
So again its gas price at this point of time, meaning commercial considerations, which has slowed things down. To extrapolate that to say that the US nuclear industry is "stalled" and will wither away, takes a special type of "genius".
Today the importance of nuclear power in USA is geopolitical as much as economic, reducing dependency on imported oil and gas. The operational cost of nuclear power – 1.87 ¢/kWh in 2008 – is 68% of electricity cost from coal and a quarter of that from gas.

From 1992 to 2005, some 270,000 MWe of new gas-fired plant was built, and only 14,000 MWe of new nuclear and coal-fired capacity came on line. But coal and nuclear supply almost 70% of US electricity and provide price stability. When investment in these two technologies almost disappeared, unsustainable demands were placed on gas supplies and prices quadrupled, forcing large industrial users of it offshore and pushing gas-fired electricity costs towards 10 ¢/kWh.

The reason for investment being predominantly in gas-fired plant was that it offered the lowest investment risk. Several uncertainties inhibited investment in capital-intensive new coal and nuclear technologies. About half of US generating capacity is over 30 years old, and major investment is also required in transmission infrastructure. This creates an energy investment crisis which was recognised in Washington, along with an increasing bipartisan consensus on the strategic importance and clean air benefits of nuclear power in the energy mix.{A point that many posters here, including myself, have raised here in the Indian context - only to be shouted away! Sigh!}

The Energy Policy Act 2005 then provided a much-needed stimulus for investment in electricity infrastructure including nuclear power. New reactor construction is expected to get under way from about 2012.

There are three regulatory initiatives which enhance the prospects of building new plants in the next few years. First is the design certification process, second is provision for early site permits (ESPs) and third is the combined construction and operating licence (COL) process. All have some costs shared by the DOE.
One final point: This data is available via four clicks. Makes you wonder, doesn't it, when folks come up with weird theories and hypothesis.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Sanku »

vina wrote: If the capital costs of Nukes crash, it will be ultra competitive with anything out there, including natural gas. Nuke cost is front loaded into capital cost. That is the fundamental problem.
I will have to agree Vina, if you look, the paper that I posted, comes to the exact same conclusion. That from a economics perspective (leaving aside the safety concerns etc which are another issue) -- potentially there are economic conditions which can result in Nuclear Renaissance -- never the less, such economic conditions do not appear to be on visible horizon. Significant changes would need to happen before such conditions can be even thought about.

This is something that is of interest to me.
The engineering base is largely alive (how could the enhancements and capacity factors have gone up otherwise ?).
Here again we are in agreement (note that I mentioned that GoTUS will subsidize even otherwise economically unviable plants to a certain extent to ensure that the infrastructure stays alive) -- however

1) GoTUS has money problems
2) If there are no new constructions and the net total number of operating reactors decreasing -- while the engineering pool does not dry -- it will shrink.
3) Lack of "fresh" blood in the industry in US -- what does the picture look like 20 years hence?

I think that while last 30 years consisted of expolitation of past effort that was made -- unless something drastic happens -- most of this would be gone (not completely but certainly stunted) -- in next 30 years.

And since that is the time frame that we are discussing, I personally think that US nuclear industry is in tough times going forth.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Sanku »

amit wrote:
For a 101 on US plans on nuclear power this gives a good primer. And it's current, updated on June 6.

Actually amit, the above reference should more aptly be classified as a sales pitch than a good primer. It is the nuclear lobby telling everyone what great shape nuclear is in. You dont expect a halwai to say that he is selling 30 years old mithai as fresh maal do you. He needs to sell, that is all he has, his livelihood is at stake.

No independent entity (either business news houses like WSJ or Hass Biz school paper or anyother that you name) -- support the above.

I have to say that is a spot of wishful thinking by a Industry with deeply troubled future. One only takes nuclear industry word at face value at ones own risk -- especially if goes against a whole mass of independent business and scientific viewpoint.

So again its gas price at this point of time, meaning commercial considerations, which has slowed things down. To extrapolate that to say that the US nuclear industry is "stalled" and will wither away, takes a special type of "genius".
Meanwhile, the above statement is purely word play IMVHO

If you so insist that
slowed things down != stalled

Fine, have it your way, US nuclear industry is not stalled, it has only slowed down to a crawl and nothing seem to suggest the pace is going to pick up.

Either way, the main message does not change, as long as the facts are right, you can chose to clothe them in any which way you like.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by amit »

Sanku wrote:
amit wrote:
For a 101 on US plans on nuclear power this gives a good primer. And it's current, updated on June 6.

Actually amit, the above reference should more aptly be classified as a sales pitch than a good primer. It is the nuclear lobby telling everyone what great shape nuclear is in. You dont expect a halwai to say that he is selling 30 years old mithai as fresh maal do you. He needs to sell, that is all he has, his livelihood is at stake.
Dear Sanku,

Instead of spouting polemics why don't you point out which of the points in the quotes I put out was a "sales pitch" by the nuclear industry? The numbers cited there tally with the EIA link which you posted to boost your POV. Horror, or horrors, are you also using sales pitch material?

And while at it why don't you point out some fresh articles from the prime sources of news you cited, which tallies with your views on the subject?

Added later: Gustaphi maap, Sanku ji, I've now been able to identify the parts of the article which are a "sales pitch" from the evil nuclear industry which is desperately trying to "save its livelihood".

Here they are:
* However, lower gas prices since 2009 have put the economic viability of some of these projects in doubt.
While there are plans for a number of new reactors (see section on Preparing for new build below), the prospect of low natural gas prices continuing for several years has dampened these plans and probably no more than four new units will come on line by 2020.
The Mithaiwala is a real cunning fella! :evil:
Thank god your eagle eyes spotted his duplicity. Just imagine, all the gentle unsuspecting souls who read this thread could have been duped if you hadn't alerted us. What would we do without you, Sanku ji?
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by alexis »

chaanakya wrote:
alexis wrote:
I concur there are multitude of issues; i hope they are resolved so that the nuclear scales upto 15-20% of the power mix; else India would continue to be an energy deficient country - directly affecting growth (studies estimate loss of GDP due to power shortage at 1.5-2%).
Alexis , after all fire and brimstone from usual posters , the best nuclear energy comes up to 15-20% mix. Incidentally I pointed to similar mix though difficult to achieve. The question is then how can it claim to be saviour of India or panacea for energy ills of India. And that itself requires addition of abt 200 GWe capacity of NPP. Don't know even this much is planned by 2050. IEP does hint to the extent achievable. And RE is already 35% counting hydro.

And issues are rather hard to easily resolve given the intractable nature of them. Energy planners don't work on hope.
I personally think 15-20% nuclear is a must going into the future; as vina pointed out, going the coal way like China did is impractical in Indian context.

The issues in nuclear plant are similar in coal; in coal the extra issue of mining land (most of which is forest/tribal/agri) is also there. So the growing demand cannot be met by coal alone. Renewable energy is not scalable to the extent required to meet the growing demand. Installed capacity wise, renewable energy (excl hydro) is 12%; generation wise it should not be more than 4% now. This can increase to 15-20%, provided the grid is strengthened/modernised. Hydro is 19% of capacity installed and maybe 12-13% of generation; this is unlikely to go up. For the rest, we need to depend on coal, gas and nuclear. Gas is now expensive and will remain so for the next 5 years. Coal and nuclear has land acquisition issues but cannot be shelved for meeting our demand.

The toss up is between coal and nuclear: you can focus on one; but cannot ignore the other.

Nobody has given any alternative to nuclear energy here; only the perils of nuclear energy are pointed out. Similarly perils of coal are also pointed out.

Sanku, whatever be your opinion, the fact is 123 has improved the fuel supply to our nuclear plants. Whether the price (opening up some nuclear plants to IAEA inspection and ) is cheap/expensive is the only question. You think it is expensive; however many in this forum (including yours truely) dont concur.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Sanku »

amit wrote:
Dear Sanku,

Instead of spouting polemics why don't you point out which of the points in the quotes I put out was a "sales pitch" by the nuclear industry?
Dear amit, I consider the whole article is a natural sales pitch frankly. There is a difference between data and presentation, if you want to brand that statement polemical instead of trying to understand it, cant help it, however if you wish to understand further, read on:

For example:
Despite a near halt in new construction of more than 30 years, US reliance on nuclear power has continued to grow
1) US reliance on nuclear power has continued to grow? Even as the % has been dropping for last 10-20 years and continues to fall?
2) Halt of new construction? No not a halt -- merely halt in ordering -- some of the reactors took nearly 30 years to build after first order.
3) Etc etc...

That is one example from the article, and there are numerous others. Basically, it takes the facts and dusts them up to make things look more cheerful than they are.

Just restating the same thing in different ways carry different meanings -- and I am sure you are familiar with that already since on BRF we are quite familiar with such exercises in innuendo etc considering the time we spend deconstructing such articles in various threads from the OIT thread to Psy Ops threads (almost all threads)
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Sanku »

alexis wrote: Sanku, whatever be your opinion, the fact is 123 has improved the fuel supply to our nuclear plants. Whether the price (opening up some nuclear plants to IAEA inspection and ) is cheap/expensive is the only question. You think it is expensive; however many in this forum (including yours truely) dont concur.
Alexis, I am quite willing to accept the above statement, for one it makes specific and limited claims without exaggeration and also touches upon the point of RoI. In my view such posts are quite refreshing.

However given the above -- I am quite willing to post some 1000 more posts trying to convince you why the pay off is not worth it. :wink: That is explain to you why I think what I think.

This makes for healthy debate and discussion.

I personally think that energy security is a critical issue -- however currently Indian under this GoI is approaching the whole manner in a disastrous way -- and 123 is part of those mistakes.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by amit »

Sanku wrote:1) US reliance on nuclear power has continued to grow? Even as the % has been dropping for last 10-20 years and continues to fall?
Sanku,

Over the years I've come to a personal conclusion that you have major comprehension problems, especially when quantitative issues are concerned.

However, even today I'm amazed at the extent of that.

You write: "Event as the % has been dropping and continues to fall."

This is what the report says:
In 1980, nuclear plants produced 251 billion kWh, accounting for 11% of the country's electricity generation. In 2008, that output had risen to 809 billion kWh and nearly 20% of electricity, providing more than 30% of the electricity generated from nuclear power worldwide.
This is exactly the same thing which the chart Amber posted showed. So 251 billion kWh in 1980 to 400 billion kWh in 1985 to 800 billion kWH in 2009! And this is in net not gross. Hint: there's a big difference between net and gross, guess which number is more important?

You know I'm coming to the conclusion that you deliberately write posts like this and in a way I'm being stupid and wasting my time in trying to point out these fundamental errors. Others are more cued in, they simply ignore. I think I need to do the same. The field is all yours my friend post away to glory.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Sanku »

amit wrote:
Sanku wrote:1) US reliance on nuclear power has continued to grow? Even as the % has been dropping for last 10-20 years and continues to fall?
Sanku,

Over the years I've come to a personal conclusion that you have major comprehension problems, especially when quantitative issues are concerned.

However, even today I'm amazed at the extent of that.

You write: "Event as the % has been dropping and continues to fall."

This is what the report says:
In 1980, nuclear plants produced 251 billion kWh, accounting for 11% of the country's electricity generation. In 2008, that output had risen to 809 billion kWh and nearly 20% of electricity, providing more than 30% of the electricity generated from nuclear power worldwide.
This is exactly the same thing which the chart Amber posted showed.

You know I'm coming to the conclusion that you deliberately write posts like this and in a way I'm being stupid and wasting my time in trying to point out these fundamental errors. Others are more cued in, they simply ignore. I think I need to do the same. The field is all yours my friend post away to glory.
Amit back to personal attacks ?

Btw if you read my post carefully I say last 10-20 year period which is 1990-2000-2010 period.

You are quoting comparisons between 1980-2010.

I am at loss to understand how a statement about 10-20 years can be compared to a 30 year window.

But hey must be the comprehension problems that I have. I don't have SCM like abilities that I confess.

Please feel free to look up % from 2000 and 2010 (19.7 dropping to 19.4) and before. Its there in the detailed document I posted.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by chaanakya »

Amber G. wrote:
The owner is serious though, per that article..
Guess where that NPP plant is?

In Japan! :-o

Tepco Plans for Restart of World’s Largest Nuclear Plant
Even the preamble is ominous.....
June 28 (Bloomberg) -- Tokyo Electric Power Co., owner of the crippled Fukushima reactors, is committed to restarting another nuclear plant next year that is the world’s largest and itself was damaged in a 2007 earthquake.

Bringing the Kashiwazaki Kariwa power station online, even though it sets up the state-controlled utility for further conflicts with a nuclear-weary public, is part of “Plan A,” President Naomi Hirose, 59, said in an interview. The plan refers to a 10-year business reconstruction that handed control of the power company known as Tepco to Japan’s government.

We have no choice right now but to do our best to carry out Plan A,” Hirose said on June 18. “We don’t have a Plan B.”

Tepco’s decision runs counter to polls showing the majority of Japanese want less reliance on atomic power after meltdowns at its Fukushima Dai-Ichi reactors last year.
Neela
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Neela »

amit wrote: You know I'm coming to the conclusion that you deliberately write posts like this and in a way I'm being stupid and wasting my time in trying to point out these fundamental errors. Others are more cued in, they simply ignore. I think I need to do the same. The field is all yours my friend post away to glory.
:)
Finally!

If I only had a paise every time Sanku cried "personal attack"....
Neela
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Neela »

Image

I hereby dedicate this thread to Fast Tony from the movie Ice Age!


Edit:
Set correct links!
Last edited by Neela on 29 Jun 2012 17:26, edited 1 time in total.
amit
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by amit »

^^^^^^
My post is directed to Channakya.

Boss,

Difficult to have a Plan B when you have an annual loss of 781 billion yen. Let's not underestimate the problems being faced by Tepco and Japan.

The public's opposition to nuclear is quite understandable and one can sympathise with it. However, it's difficult to see how Japanese policy makers can shut down nuclear plants and still keep the economy growing.
All of the country's 50 reactors have gone offline since, risking power shortages especially in the western metropolis of Osaka and other parts of Kansai Electric's service area.
An earlier report I quoted said that without nuclear some areas of Japan could experience as much as 20 per cent power shortage.

The link posted by Amber has this interesting quote:
It is, and should be, possible for electricity utilities not to rely on nuclear power in the long term, 30 or 40 years later,” Kazuhiko Shimokobe, Tepco’s new chairman, told reporters in Tokyo today. “But it’s difficult to think of Tepco and other utilities without nuclear power in the time span of five or 10 years while maintaining stable electricity supply.”
amit
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by amit »

Neela wrote:
amit wrote: You know I'm coming to the conclusion that you deliberately write posts like this and in a way I'm being stupid and wasting my time in trying to point out these fundamental errors. Others are more cued in, they simply ignore. I think I need to do the same. The field is all yours my friend post away to glory.
:)
Finally!

If I only had a paise every time Sanku cried "personal attack"....
:lol:

The Gyan came to me late, however, better late than never...

I was worried about the cry of "personal attack" that's why I worded my post very carefully. However, unfortunately the subtle difference was lost. What to do?
Over the years I've come to a personal conclusion that you have major comprehension problems, especially when quantitative issues are concerned.
Saying it's my personal conclusion is very different than saying bluntly that you have major comprehension problems. But anyway enough, I'm done with this tamasha, there are lots of other posters to debate and exchange ideas with. I've learnt a lot from this thread, even from posters with whom I have differences with regarding this issue. Hopefully, I've been able to contribute a bit as well. And I have every intention of keeping engaged.

:-)
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