Covert action against terrorists living outside India

[pentaiah]

Yeh hai
Tamanna ki Talash

[ShauryaT]

In addition, I want a salvo of Brahmos or SF ops on the locations below:

In PoK, the camps are located in Tattapani, Garhi Dupatta, Barnala, Sensa, Forward Kahutta, Peer Chinasi, Shavai Nallah, Bhimbher, Kotli, Skardu, Abdullah Bin Masud, Nikial, Gulpur, Samani and, Jhandi Chauntra, among others. Within the militancy-wracked NWFP, there are several seminaries which also function as terrorist training camps in the mountainous Manshera region. These include Jangal Mangal, Shinkiari, Andher Bela, and Jalo Gali. Elsewhere in the Frontier, there are camps located in Oghi, Boi, and Attar Shisha. Furthermore, there are also camps situated at other locations within Pakistan, including Muridke, Sialkot, Beesian, Garhi Habibullah and Jalogali.

Terrorist Infrastructure of Pakistan

[partha]

B Raman's latest on Kasab's hanging -

http://ramanstrategicanalysis.blogspot. ... inues.html

12. If the National Counter Terrorism Centre (NCTC) had been set up in time and had it started functioning as it was supposed to, we might have been in a better position to detect and neutralise preparations for retaliatory action. The exercise to set up the NCTC has come to a halt due to political mishandling. This exercise needs to be resumed and completed vigorously.

Could he be talking about covert action capabilities of our agencies inside Pakistan?

[RoyG]

The reason the NCTC was opposed was b/c it gave the IB arrest powers. He just wants his beloved Congress to solidify its position. They don't have the political will to take the fight to Pakistan.

[RoyG]

Some observations regarding covert action to neutralise paki enemies of India.

1. A separate agency(fresh and lean) will have to be formed for this task. Most probably RAW will not be able to carry out this task effectively.

2. Apart from Pakistan, some neutralization actions should be carried out in countries like UK, Canada and Scandinavian Countries. Saale bahut lecture dete hain. Add UAE and Saudi Arabia too. Will have tremendous payoff.

3. Pashtuns and Baloch youth should be fully utilised for making low level hits.

So your solution is to create another intelligence service?

[darshhan]

So your solution is to create another intelligence service?

RoyG ji, I am talking about an adhoc agency. Just for one purpose i.e razor sharp focus. It will be very small. No need for a 10 storied headquarter in Lutyen's delhi or associated bureaucracy.Budget in tens of millions USD rather than billions. When the purpose is solved this agency will be disbanded.

Atleast US does this all the time for the purpose of manhunting. Just look at the various taskforces they have set up since 9/11. And they have been fairly successful. OSS during ww2 was itself an Adhoc agency although its scope was far wider.

Other countries might also be doing the same. In case of Israel, Mossad itself is very small( 1200 employees total according to wikipedia) compared to lumbering giants such as CIA. Hence much more nimble.

The only problem is what if Congressis start misusing these capabilities against Indians themselves instead of Pakis. Infact they have already done so with CBI, Income Tax, DRI etc. What if they start assasinating Indians in order to maintain their wealth and power?

[Amitabh]

Congress I is not willing to go after the terrorists. They have this misplaced sense of killing pakistani terrorists will somehow aleniate their muslim votebank here.
I wish security of Indian lives becomes a non compromising issue for all political parties.

Right, because the pseudo-nationalist heroes of Kandahar did such a great job eliminating India's enemies.

[suryag]

A question to all gurus how many movies/comics have we seen where the protagonist is some agent from a three/four lettered desi agency doing a bourne type mission. The intention over here is to actually first get the population to believe it is eminently doable, make an impression on young minds and then when these minds grow up and get into the same agencies get them to give shape to these ideas. This is a bottom up approach and will take a decade to bear fruits. ofcourse gurus like Dileep can come up with a gripping story and who knows someone might pick it up.

[ShauryaT]

^Seriously? These type of things are done with cold calculations of risk assessments and understanding the escalation ladders, capabilities, likely intent and action paths of the opponent. This type of work in the real world is complete drudgery and mind numbing work - for the most part. It is quite clear that RAW has resurrected a capability to track things inside TSP. We should continue to invest in these capabilities for covert action of all kinds. Bumping people off is just one option, there are so many others. Disruption, miscommunications, infiltration from within, information leading to disruption of assets inside our territories and even in some cases co-operation with TSP, if the need arises. These capabilities are institutional in kind and spans across decades and generations. Who knows when we may be able to use them. However, invest in them we must.

What will really help here is for an organization such as RAW to be under command of CoSC, instead of the PMO directly. But, for that we need a real CDS with real powers and not another four star peer.

[sum]

It is quite clear that RAW has resurrected a capability to track things inside TSP. We should continue to invest in these capabilities for covert action of all kinds.

Shaurya-ji,
Could you please indicate how you came to this conclusion?

[ShauryaT]

It is quite clear that RAW has resurrected a capability to track things inside TSP. We should continue to invest in these capabilities for covert action of all kinds.

Shaurya-ji,
Could you please indicate how you came to this conclusion?

Sum ji: No smoking gun. Read things in public sources for years and years and then look for pattern changes. Do not have a quote by some high ranking person. It is an assessment or a view, so FWIW. Specifics of people, places and names suddenly come out. Look for number of local cells and plans destroyed and compare with previous rates. How many strikes attributed to Pakistan or ISI or Pakistan helped after 26/11 and compare to previous years. Left Wing Extremism now outstrips the combined total of all other incidents of attack and casualties. Not saying things are perfect or even close to it. But, we are not sleeping anymore.

[anmol]

Congress I is not willing to go after the terrorists. They have this misplaced sense of killing pakistani terrorists will somehow aleniate their muslim votebank here.
I wish security of Indian lives becomes a non compromising issue for all political parties.

Right, because the pseudo-nationalist heroes of Kandahar did such a great job eliminating India's enemies.

I am still very much a "newb" here but how can anyone on BRF compare that with Kandahar ?

BJP did what it did during Kandahar to save life of Indians..

Congress won't take actions which will help save life of Indians.. because it affects votebank.

See no difference ?

[pentaiah]

. Left Wing Extremism now outstrips the combined total of all other incidents of attack and casualties. Not saying things are perfect or even close to it. But, we are not sleeping

It is wrong conclusion

The fact that ISI and its non state actors
have infiltrated into Indian citizen lead cells and are operating inside India

This trend is easy to cover tracks leading to TSP
The Naxal Narco NGO sheltered anti India activities
Are blooming like poppy flowers across ll states

The RAW conclusion is only that good
The real ones to catch if any one has balls
is the groups above mentioned which unfortunately lead to the leadership and party in power
I would sleep well when DGRI CBI puts one single person of consequence in Erwada or tahir jail
Apram parklam
Till then get pop corn and watch ziad Ahmed and other videos

[pentaiah]

. Left Wing Extremism now outstrips the combined total of all other incidents of attack and casualties. Not saying things are perfect or even close to it. But, we are not sleeping

It is wrong conclusion

The fact that ISI and its non state actors
have infiltrated into Indian citizen lead cells and are operating inside India

This trend is easy to cover tracks leading to TSP
The Naxal Narco NGO sheltered anti India activities
Are blooming like poppy flowers across ll states

The RAW conclusion is only that good
The real ones to catch if any one has balls
is the groups above mentioned which unfortunately lead to the leadership and party in power
I would sleep well when DGRI CBI puts one single person of consequence in Erwada or tahir jail
Apram parklam
Till then get pop corn and watch ziad Ahmed and other videos

[Amitabh]

Right, because the pseudo-nationalist heroes of Kandahar did such a great job eliminating India's enemies.

I am still very much a "newb" here but how can anyone on BRF compare that with Kandahar ?

BJP did what it did during Kandahar to save life of Indians..

Congress won't take actions which will help save life of Indians.. because it affects votebank.

See no difference ?

When someone says "the hero of x did a bad job of y" that is not solely a reference to events that occurred during x but their entire record.

There is a common politically motivated supposition on BRF that "pseudo-secular" parties are less willing to act to defend India than "pseudo-nationalist" parties. This is obviously false. ABV and MMS share a lot more in strategic outlook than you would guess from the frequently immature "commentary" one commonly sees.

In fact one can discern a lot more destabilisation in Pakistan since 2008 than before. Now I am not obviously privy to RAW covert ops but the betting man in me would say that Indian agencies have been much more active in this period. At least the Pakistanis believe it. And the target set seems a lot better aligned with Indian goals.

It may well be that Indian agencies have in fact close to zero influence on what is happening in Pakistan. But the assumption that somehow the UPA is softer on terror than the NDA is delusional. The actual evidence of covert action will always be hazy, but circumstantial evidence suggests the opposite of what you posit.

[Kashi]

In fact one can discern a lot more destabilisation in Pakistan since 2008 than before. Now I am not obviously privy to RAW covert ops but the betting man in me would say that Indian agencies have been much more active in this period. At least the Pakistanis believe it. And the target set seems a lot better aligned with Indian goals.

It may well be that Indian agencies have in fact close to zero influence on what is happening in Pakistan. But the assumption that somehow the UPA is softer on terror than the NDA is delusional. The actual evidence of covert action will always be hazy, but circumstantial evidence suggests the opposite of what you posit.

Circumstantial evidence could very well suggest that as you said Indian agencies have no influence and it may well be foreign agencies that may be behind this. At least the Raymond Davis saga seems to suggest so. In other words, delusion would be looking for patterns different to what would eerge from looking at best available circumstantial evidence.

[Sanku]

The track record of governance is given by statistics, and not peoples say so. The statistics of internal security has been posted on various threads far too often (and can be easily goggled) -- for the flat earth theory to be propounded by the church of Nehru any longer.

Best option is to embrace the truth, in the national interest.

[shiv]

The statistics of internal security has been posted on various threads far too often (and can be easily goggled)

Sanku the colour of the goggles is important. Red, green, saffron or yellow.

[Sanku]

The statistics of internal security has been posted on various threads far too often (and can be easily goggled)

Sanku the colour of the goggles is important. Red, green, saffron or yellow.

Oops.

[Amitabh]

The statistics of internal security has been posted on various threads far too often (and can be easily goggled)

Sanku the colour of the goggles is important. Red, green, saffron or yellow.

That is fundamentally correct.

[shyamd]

Timely article.
India needs to take out terror targets in Pakistan

November 22, 2012 17:18 IST

Lashkar founder Mohammad Sayeed and 26/11 attacks accused Zaki-ur Rehman Lakhvi must be neutralised one by one if Pakistan does not act against them, says Brigadier Gurmeet Kanwal (retd).

Ajmal Kasab [ Images ], the sole terrorist arrested during the 26/11 terror strikes in Mumbai [ Images ], has finally been hanged. But he was only a foot soldier of the Lashkar-e-Tayiba [ Images ], a fundamentalist organisation that continues to launch acts of terror on Indian soil.

Despite the voluminous evidence presented to Pakistan, President Asif Ali Zardari's [ Images ] government has failed to satisfactorily meet India's demands for either effectively putting on trial the masterminds of the Mumbai terror strikes or handing them over to face justice in India.

Peace is undeniably important, but not if the cost is a continuing proxy war in Jammu and Kashmir [ Images ] and terrorism in other parts of India, being sponsored from across the border by organisations over which the Pakistan government claims it has no control.

Since all other options have been exhausted, the Government of India must consider viable military and covert options to send a strong message to the Pakistan army [ Images ] and the Inter Services Intelligence that India's threshold of tolerance has been crossed and enough is enough, especially if a similar incident recurs.

Military options include raids across the Line of Control [ Images ] on the leadership and training camps of the Lashkar, the Jaish-e-Mohammed and the Hizbul Mujahideen [ Images ] by Special Forces, the destruction of the Pakistan army's posts on the Line of Control and its logistics installations in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir by heavy doses of artillery fire and the precision bombing of selected targets by the Indian Air Force.

However, hard military options have only a transitory impact unless these are sustained over a long period of time. The use of force also causes inevitable collateral damage, runs the risk of escalating into a larger war with attendant nuclear dangers and has adverse international ramifications.

In order to achieve a lasting impact and ensure that the actual perpetrators of terrorism are targeted, it is necessary to employ covert capabilities to neutralise the leadership of terrorist organisations. Clandestine operations can be methodically planned and stealthily executed at an opportune moment.

These are not time-critical responses and they also have an element of 'plausible deniability' built into them. Other advantages include relatively low political, economic and military costs and low risk of casualties for operatives as local personnel -- who harbour grudges against the targeted organisations -- can often be used.

After Independence, Indian intelligence agencies had virtually no covert capabilities available while Pakistan launched irregular warfare against India in Kashmir and sustained it over the next few decades.

After the 1962 war with China, the newly-established external intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing, received help from the Central Intelligence Agency to establish capabilities for clandestine operations across India's borders.

When the ISI intervened to provide 'political, diplomatic and moral' support to the protagonists of the insurgent Khalistan movement in Punjab [ Images ] in the 1980s, India is reported to have retaliated in the restive regions of Sindh and Balochistan.

Soon after the Brass Tacks IV crisis in 1987 (when the Indian Army's [ Images ] simulation of a full-scale war on the border unsettled Pakistan), R&AW chief A K Verma and then ISI chief Lieutenant General Hamid Gul (now on India's wanted list) reportedly agreed to stop launching covert operations against each other.

Pakistan did not keep its part of the bargain in Kashmir on the specious plea that it is was a disputed territory. It went flat out to support militancy in Jammu and Kashmir. Since then, Pakistan has often accused India of clandestine interference in its internal affairs, but has failed to corroborate its claims with hard evidence.

B Raman, a well-known intelligence analyst, has written, 'R&AW imposed heavy costs on Pakistan for supporting the Khalistanis and should be able to do so now for its support to the LeT and other jihadi terrorist organisations.'

According to the intelligence grapevine, India's covert capabilities in Pakistan were wound down on the prime minister's orders in 1997, so as to promote reconciliation.

If that is true, a great deal of effort will be necessary to establish these capabilities from scratch. Young operatives will have to be selected and trained -- initially in the rudiments of intelligence gathering -- and after being given some in-country experience, in the complexities of high-risk special operations in a hostile foreign environment.

They will also need to be imparted specialised instructions in selecting, training and motivating local agents to carry out pre-planned and opportune strikes against selected targets.

It takes at least three to five years to put in place basic capabilities for covert operations in Pakistan as both the terrorist organisations and their handlers like the ISI have to be penetrated. It is to be hoped that permission has been given to R&AW to revive its earlier capabilities.

Targets should include the leaders of fundamentalist terrorist organisations in Pakistan who are sponsoring terrorist strikes in India and their ISI handlers -- particularly those who are renegade or rogue elements.

Masterminds like Lashkar founder Mohammad Sayeed and 26/11 attack accused Zaki-ur Rehman Lakhvi must be neutralised one by one if Pakistan does not act against them.

Fugitives from the Indian justice system, like gangster and prime accused in the 1993 Mumbai serial blasts Dawood Ibrahim [ Images ], must be hounded out. In fact, Dawood should be secretly apprehended from his hideout in Karachi and brought back alive to India to face a public trial.

In a later phase, when a network of operatives is in place and sufficient experience has been gained, logistics installations of the army like ammunition dumps -- from which explosives are issued for suicide strikes -- should be blown up.

In this age of realpolitik, adherence to ahimsa (non-violence) will not pay dividends and India will remain at the mercy of terrorist organisations. Such organisations will always have the initiative as they can choose the time and place of the next attack.

R&AW must be given the wherewithal necessary to undertake sustained covert operations in Pakistan to eliminate the leadership of organisations inimical to India.

The flames of fundamentalist terrorism in India are still being fanned by the Pakistan army and the ISI, though on a reduced scale. The time to debate this issue on moral and legal grounds has long since passed.

Brigadier Gurmeet Kanwal (retd) is a Delhi-based strategic analyst.

Things will change after 2014/15.

[Kashi]

Things will change after 2014/15.

Balderdash. "Things" hardly changed after 26/11, so why should one believe that they'll be any different in 2014/15?

[shyamd]

Geopolitical situation and India is working on a long term plan, which you will see soon. Bumping off one person or 2 people isn't going to resolve the issue.

[Kashi]

Geopolitical situation and India is working on a long term plan, which you will see soon. Bumping off one person or 2 people isn't going to resolve the issue.

I hope you are right, but given the trend so far, I do not have high hopes.

I'll be delighted if what you say is indeed going to happen.

[shyamd]

Written an article about it, hopefully will be out in the near future.

[pentaiah]

First we need internal covert action like during IG days

Anybody opposed to her would be found under the truck or tracks

Action against Nagarwala
Action against Col Anand
Action against Anand Margis

Recently the lathi charge and ram charge of yoga guru bab Ramdev
Etc etc should be on large scale to get rid of anti nationals

[chaanakya]

Brigadier Gurmeet Kanwal (retd) is a Delhi-based strategic analyst.

Things will change after 2014/15.

Is he the same, the Author of Siachen Sellout Proposals under Track-II sponsored by ISI? Wont trust a word he would say. Dont even read that crap.

And please tell in what way things would change after 2014/15. Is INC stopping scams runs or starting to honor its commitment to help families and soldiers who fought against terrorism? But that would be only if they get elected? What could be the chance of Indian public committing mass harakiri by electing congoons.?