Changing dynamics of UP and the Hurricane from the West
With one year to go for 2014 General elections, the political situation is still fluid, although straws in the wind suggest some remarkable consolidation of views on some key issues.
If one thing that is fairly conclusive to any serious UP watcher, it’s the seething anger against the Central government. The huge unpopularity of Central government has rubbed onto the fortunes of Congress. Coupled with anti Congress mood the miserable performance of several sitting Congress MPs could well ring death bell for Congress in 2014.
Rahul Gandhi who campaigned aggressively in 2012 hoping to reap dividends by posing as the angry young man needled by the inefficiencies of the system seems to have given up on UP preferring to enjoy the comforts of Delhi rather than slug it out in the dusty lanes of rural hinterland. The severe anti incumbency against Central government could see Congress ending up a poor third in constituencies like Moradabad, Keri, Farukkabad, Maharajganj which it won in 2009. Indeed the
talk in political circles and on ground is that it could be tough ride for Rahul Gandhi in Amethi where there is a great deal of voter discontent. The party was washed out in the key bastions of Amethi, Sultanpur and Rae Bareilly in 2012 Assembly elections
Samajwadi Party government, contrary to reports in Delhi media, continues to enjoy the honeymoon period and has largely held onto the Muslim-Yadav consolidation. Indeed if any lack of choices given the seething unpopularity of Congress has driven larger sections of Muslims into the firmer embrace of SP.
Brahmins, who have emerged the key swing group in UP, gravitated towards SP thus firming up their recently earned reputation of siding with the party in power. BSP which is licking its wounds after its disastrous performance in 2012 has lost further ground among upper castes, MBC’s and sections of Dalit Muslims.
It is in this scenario that an interesting realignment is taking place which has the potential to change the political landscape.
The virtual domination by the money and muscled Yadavs and Mulsims in Akhilesh’s reign has managed to rub sections of non Yadav OBC’s on the wrong side. Thakurs smarting under their perceived negligence and sidelining post the Raja Bhaiyya fiasco are looking towards BJP as an option. Indeed the most remarkable aspect today is the sheer popularity of Gujarat strong man Narendra Modi. He has managed to morph into larger than life figure across the state and is voluminously talked and held in aw in urban and semi-urban parts from Lucknow to Allahabad. The readiness of OBC and
non Brahmin upper caste sections to embrace Modi has not been lost on either the opposition parties or the BJP cadre. Indeed it would be understatement to say that Modi is a factor for he seems to be a phenomenon. Voters across the state are enamored of Modi and his development tales in a state which has been starved of developmental activity.
Indeed there are fears among no BJP parties of the dent he is likely to cause among their base should he campaign in the state.
A SP leader, who this author talked to while on a visit to Maharajganj, said only factor which could stall SP march in Poorvanchal is the Modi factor. Indeed the assessment across the board while traversing Poorvanchal was that Modi card could significantly alter the dynamics of the region and has the potential to even push BJP ahead in the race.
This overriding public sentiment seems to have been not lost by the BJP President Rajnath Singh who has deftly appointed Modi’s acolyte Amit Shah as in charge of UP. What’s interesting is that while other appointments didn’t even raise a whimper Shah’s appointment managed to raise eye brows across the political circles showing the extent of Modi factor at work.
BJP Delhi leadership should read the public mood and give the baton charge to Modi if it has to have any realistic chances of touching 30 seats in 2014. Should Modi’s PM candidacy be formalized 2014 could well turn out to be a no holds barred battle between Mulayam dreaming of ruling Delhi with the help of Third Front and the Hurricane from the West who has the potential to overturn the existing political order in badlands of UP.
http://centreright.in/2013/05/changing- ... ZwnURWZi1E
