AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 31 Jul 2013 02:40

Anyone will take a bet - Either YSRC or TDP will be part on NDA government. A lot of YSRC will go with Modi.

In Telangana as days progress and political realignment occurs, BJP and TDP will go as a coalition and will sweep HYD surroundings. The state is pregnant with new political allignments as the uncertainity is over.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 31 Jul 2013 02:42

YSRC!!! Why? what good will aligning with EJ's bring for BJP?

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 31 Jul 2013 02:44

Lilo wrote: SSP ji,
my views are,
>The money invested in Hyd realestate beyond the price levels of 2004-2007 is virtually vaporware in 2013 terms.
>So even if people want to liquidate their investments it is a given that they have to take on huge losses , because Hyd is worth only when it was the focus of the investments from an united AP. Current Hyd with just Telangana as base cannot demand the pricelevels of erst while Hyd in an United AP.

Government has been inviting every one to come and invest in Hyderabad since at least 1970. It is like those evil chit funds, collect money from people and disappear.

Trust is broken. Now all the loot to recover from Hyderabad is justified.

>Forget haggling over lumpsums from central govt or revenues from Hyd(which will be in dumps for a while) and which will be swaha in no time by the politicos. Instead demand and get a Central Tax holiday for 15 years to large swathes of Investment zones on the coast. Also central govt must prioritise Rail and Port projects in Seemandhra (especially Rayalaseema). People dont remember when was the last time AP got some thing from the Railway budget now Seema should get the benefit of this past hold out. New rail lines , better ports - that should be expected.

This IMO is fair renumeration for the loss of Hyd.
Expect CBN to strike such a deal with NaMo post election for his support.

I told in another discussion to not to pay Central taxes for next 50 years and use the tax funds for development. Hope leaders get that clue in bargaining packages.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 31 Jul 2013 02:47

SaiK wrote:Losing a big developed city like Hyd is not a joke! I don't see efforts to build one like or better than hyd.

Saik ji,
Hyd as the focus was the wrong model to start with regard to sound regional development principles, especially for such a huge state like Andhra Pradesh - its like Paris in the huge swath of French country - an economic vacuum cleaner sucking up all the investments from the surrounding country side - leaving rest of the land as a economic desert devoid of any other activity above primary ones ( Agriculture and mining) .

Our aim as Muppala ji holds should be like Guj with its drab administrative capital functioning well with other big cities like Vadodra Surat rajkot etc.

Concentrations are subject to bust in various forums and prices will skyrocket beyond ordinary levels just as Mumbai and Hyd have shown. Distributed model like the US eastern sea board is a good way to develop along a coast.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 31 Jul 2013 02:47

^ That can happen if and only if it becomes national policy and all the top 10/20 cities are made in to UTs and not some Yanam type colonial areas. If this becomes a national policy then more power to it and the central govt can draw funds from those cities.

Ahmedabad $49B
Bangalore $69B
Chennai $79B
Delhi $167B
Hyderabad $60B
Jaipur $24B
Kanpur $26B
Kolkata $104B
Lucknow $22B
Mumbai $254B
Pune $48B
Surat $36B
TOTAL $938B

Given the Tax/GDP of 10% GoI can use the $90-100B to focus on only national aspects of governance and leave the states to focus on other governance areas.

For all this happens our federal structure has to be correctly defined and state/center roles and responsibilities need to be ironed out to avoid future manipulation of INC type govts.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 31 Jul 2013 02:48

So AP power also goes down in parliament. Instead we will see the 2 states fighting like Haryana and Punjab over resources and capital.
The leaves only UP to drive the whole country with its sheer number of seats and casteist/communal politics.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 31 Jul 2013 02:48

Atri wrote:YSRC!!! Why? what good will aligning with EJ's bring for BJP?

It need not be the party, but the voting support groups.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 31 Jul 2013 02:49

Bade wrote:That is why I said most big cities need to be made UTs. I know it will not fly. But central govt resources have mainly built them, or migrants from all over the country. That was the logic behind it. Dilli, Cal, Mumbai, Madras would not have become what they are solely based on local inputs. Now add Bangalore, Hyderabad, Pune and a few others too to the list.

No Bade. UTs were because there was no consensus on how to integrate those areas. Delhi was UT as its the NCR.

For example Goa was UT. Once it got developed it was given statehood. Ideally Goa should revert to its precolonial status. But there was fear that Mysore and Maharastra would fight over it.

By same token Pondicherry should have reverted to TN.

Making the cities UT removes power and responsiblity from the states. It also creates new choke points.

So not a good idea. UT implies the locals are incapable of governing them. Not true.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 31 Jul 2013 02:58

VikasRaina wrote:So AP power also goes down in parliament. Instead we will see the 2 states fighting like Haryana and Punjab over resources and capital.
The leaves only UP to drive the whole country with its sheer number of seats and casteist/communal politics.

What good did it do for AP for giving 39 to Congress ?

Atleast MuKa or JJ know how to extort the center for the support (always external) they give - which is why TN achieved such focused growth in key industries .
In contrast AP CMs (KKR , Rosaiah etc) always had to camp outside madam's house for weeks at a stretch to get a Darshan.
The factionalism in AP politics especially in state congress is legendary - YSR just made us believe that it was not there - but the truth was that it was always simmering below ready to explode.

TDP case it is reverse, if CBN continues with his tight lid current style every 10 years people like KCR will intermittently explode to change the equation.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 31 Jul 2013 03:02

SaiK, In 2001 i saw the Mckinsey Consultants report on AP plan 2020. It essentially wanted thee state to develop infrastructure for the coastal areas so that economic boom can be kickstarted. The area was suffering from transprrt charges to Chennai port and the truck mafia.

My commetn then was without estimating funds needed nor prioritizing which projects would provide the best returns it was wsihlist. But all in all it was a good report which can be built on.

If YSRC sweeps as expected then I know who will be the Principal Secy and he is committed to AP development.
Naidu is unique and willbe everything himself!

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 31 Jul 2013 03:18

I have a question: now that split has happened, can people on either side "talk" about the other? like right now, can I comment on Andhra or is it too soon? likewise, can Andhras comment on Telangana or is that too soon?

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 31 Jul 2013 03:21

^^
Devesh ji what good will commenting by any side on the other side achieve at this point ?

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 31 Jul 2013 03:24

Lilo wrote:
VikasRaina wrote:So AP power also goes down in parliament. Instead we will see the 2 states fighting like Haryana and Punjab over resources and capital.
The leaves only UP to drive the whole country with its sheer number of seats and casteist/communal politics.
What good did it do for AP for giving 39 to Congress ?

Atleast MuKa or JJ know how to extort the center for the support (always external) they give - which is why TN achieved such focused growth in key industries .
In contrast AP CMs (KKR , Rosaiah etc) always had to camp outside madam's house for weeks at a stretch to get a Darshan.
The factionalism in AP politics especially in state congress is legendary - YSR just made us believe that it was not there - but the truth was that it was always simmering below ready to explode.

TDP case it is reverse, if CBN continues with his tight lid current style every 10 years people like KCR will intermittently explode to change the equation.

AP got the First Non-Dynasty Congress PM ever outside the Gangetic belt.

LiLo, From Dynasty PoV, it is easier to manage a small coterie of MP's rather than have someone like YSR exist as independent satrap with little control. With Telanagana, CBN now is boxed in a smaller state only and Telangana state will take time to have its own opposition party while congress can rule T state for couple of more terms unfettered.
Of course Telgu bidda is not as good an extortionist in Delhi as Tamil Anna is despite being loyal to congress all along and giving one of the best PM's ever.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 31 Jul 2013 03:41

YSRC will not sweep Andhra. TDP's recent performance in Andhra looks pretty good. I would say they might end up getting the most seats, but still not majority, and hence not able to form govt.

in Telangana, all depends on when TRS merges with INC. If KCR and INC are smart, then they will contest together (seat-sharing), and merge after elections. Just like they did with Chiranjeevi. together, INC and TRS will probably sweep Telangana with heavy margins in every district. I would be really surprised if they didn't.

but the above scenario doesn't bother me. TRS should merge. as long as TRS remains, there is chance that Telangana politics will transform into the same kind as AP's. INC vs Regional-party. so, it's good that TRS/KCR are thinking of merging with Congress.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 31 Jul 2013 03:42

Lilo wrote:^^
Devesh ji what good will commenting by any side on the other side achieve at this point ?

not "commentary". look at my above post. talking about political scenario on both sides.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 31 Jul 2013 03:54

Meanwhile folks in New Delhi are arguing about origins of biryani!

Timeline per Telegraph:

Devesh, No one is stopping you from commenting on anything within forum guidelines.

member_27444 · Post by **member_27444** » 31 Jul 2013 04:02

Should people obtain Mulki certificates
Or PTO

People of Telengana Origib

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 31 Jul 2013 04:18

ramana wrote:Lilo, Good thinking. And most likely as Center is bankrupt or on anemaic status, teh CST holiday might be alatable in lieu of giving any funds which they dont have.
BTW most polticial commentators are saying that INC basically wrote off Andhra Pradesh and hence decide to recoup Telangana. Although all the conditions and clauses (Hyd status ten yeas later, meantime quasi-UT status with Governor responsible for law and order!) they are attaching make it doubful.

Hence if INC comes to power at Center its very doubtful they will give any incentives to AP for development. They think it will be YSRC that will come to power and they can be coerced to cooperate along with psec media campaign will ensure that.

Meatime an article from Ind Exp on the property owners of Hyderabad.
...
National Highways: 15% of AP's 4,537km
Rail network: 35 % of AP total
...

Both highway and rail networks are far smaller (when normalized) in telangANa than kottha AP. Lilo was proposing more rail in kothha AP. Au contraire, their development in T has to be taken up urgently if the center wants T's support.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 31 Jul 2013 04:27

Why are we assuming that there will be a mass exodus of Andhra people from Hyderabad?

When Gujarat and Maharashtra were separated out of Bombay state, a large number of Gujaratis stayed behind in Mumbai city and continued to manage their property and business. Till his day, there continues to be a large Gujarati population in Mumbai city.

So, why can't people from new Andhra continue to live in peace in Hyderabad city? In this case, unlike the Gujaratis of Mumbai, they even speak the same language (Telugu) as the locals.

I think the first order of business for the leaders in Telangana to reassure the new Andhra origin people living in Telangana that they can continue to live there peacefully. Otherwise a cycle of action-reaction will start.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 31 Jul 2013 04:31

There are a large number of Marathi, Kannadiga, Tamil, Sindhi, Marwari, and Gujarati population in Hyderabad. It is truly a cosmopolitan city. I don't think anybody has to leave unless somebody starts trouble. That should be prevented at all costs otherwise it might descend into chaos.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 31 Jul 2013 04:34

There was no such trouble and exodus when they made Chhattisgarh, jharkhand, uttarakhand et al... why should there be any trouble now?

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 31 Jul 2013 04:37

Atri wrote:There was no such trouble and exodus when they made Chhattisgarh, jharkhand, uttarakhand et al... why should there be any trouble now?

Because there's history here.... In the past T-hotheads have tried to physcially 'facilitate' Andhraite exodus from the city. Instead of using 'em razakar-lite tactics on the razakar-pasands in old city, they danced madness in new city for a brief while only... sheesh. talk about self-goials...

yvijay · Post by **yvijay** » 31 Jul 2013 05:04

^Would you care to tell us when this attempt to 'facilitate Andhraite exodus' happened ? The movement has been around 40 years and people from all over the state lived and settled there without any trouble. And I don't see how that changes with the formation of Telangana. As Kakkaji garu said, same scenario as when the division between Maharashtra and Gujarath happened will play out.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 31 Jul 2013 05:10

Apprehensions about violence are ill-placed, unless motivated parties make some goondas start riot or something.

By the way, I remember there was a poster with the name of a Congress Minister from T who posted a few posts on the now locked Telangana thread. Was it him or one of his aides? In any case, he was for united AP. May be that poster can chime in.

Added later: Professor sir from Trantor might have worked for him for a while when he was the Minister of Higher Education of pAta AP.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 31 Jul 2013 05:22

nobody is going anywhere. things will continue calmly. Hyderabad will remain fine. unless there is special "attention" by vested interest to turn the situation violent, I really don't expect anything to happen. Congress for once needs to not stoop to its low tactics.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 31 Jul 2013 05:23

mupalla et al are making me excited about this.. now I know, I would not be retiring with no job in hand. I am sure, I will work my last days working like hell. more cities being planned, means more jobs.

destination AP!.. (eat & drink at yamar's place as guest

)
btw, the truck mafia and interstate tax/octrois actually reduces commerce & increases bribery/corruption.. that should be removed as we move towards USI model.

SBajwa · Post by **SBajwa** » 31 Jul 2013 05:52

UTs like Delhi, Chandigarh produce ZERO!! NADA!! ZILCH! Because they do not have any industries neither local dynamism. These cities are BABU owned cities (thus neat and clean) and do nothing at all good for the economy of the whole country. It is a feel good value of "Look I am wearing Armani clothes" only. People of Ludhiana make the most money in Punjab but spend it in Chandigarh (due to its good swanky bars, clubs, parks, lakes and hotels all missing in Ludhiana).

It is like saying Bombay gives 50% of the India's tax but without knowing that the corporates in Bombay are selling their soaps and shampoos to the people all over India. It is the market that builds them.

Delhi is Delhi because of the people in Haryana, UP and Rajasthan around it have no other option same with others.

Union territories are waste of resources!! All UTs should be abolished right away!! let the people in these cities decide.

Babus are HUGE HUGE burden on the poorest of the poor., due to exact nature of these cities. These cities are white elephants just like Elephant park created by Mayawati.

Build industry around the city first based on what the people are doing around it.

for example around cotton growing areas create Textiles.
Around Iron ore areas create steel mills and so forth.
before anything else!!

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 31 Jul 2013 06:23

What Andhra minus Hyderabad means

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 31 Jul 2013 06:30

abhishek_sharma wrote:What Andhra minus Hyderabad means
"Telangana agitations have repeatedly attacked properties owned by non-Telangana people," says K S Prasad, who owns animation studios in Hyderabad. "Their leaders may deny any threat to non-Telangana people and their properties, but the situation may turn out to be scary."

that is pathetic!

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 31 Jul 2013 06:36

SaiK wrote:mupalla et al are making me excited about this.. now I know, I would not be retiring with no job in hand. I am sure, I will work my last days working like hell. more cities being planned, means more jobs.

destination AP!.. (eat & drink at yamar's place as guest )
btw, the truck mafia and interstate tax/octrois actually reduces commerce & increases bribery/corruption.. that should be removed as we move towards USI model.

With seed money from Hyderabad and Center and peoples' entrepreneurial mindset, Destination AP indeed!

Chittoor to Srikakulam land has awesome and vast network of rail, road, and sea network (sea is development area for regional trade) and it is already the largest and probably/soon-to-be wealthiest strip of land. If international airport and connection to existing 4-5 airports come, its transportation system is unbeatable. If the new state takes care of Anathapur, Srikakulam, Vijayanagaram (poorer districts), this new state will become one of the richest states in the world.

Coming to people it produced top most leaders, artists, entrepreneurs, and any other professional people. It perhaps has highest per-capita doctors and engineers. Not just people living there but those who migrated to else where in India and world do well too. With same rigor, vigor, and dynamism, they can build world class state.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 31 Jul 2013 06:55

SaiK wrote:
abhishek_sharma wrote:What Andhra minus Hyderabad means
"Telangana agitations have repeatedly attacked properties owned by non-Telangana people," says K S Prasad, who owns animation studios in Hyderabad. "Their leaders may deny any threat to non-Telangana people and their properties, but the situation may turn out to be scary."
that is pathetic!

Needless scare mongering. Who is this man anyways? Why is he trying to rile up people and play with sentiments?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 31 Jul 2013 07:10

devesh wrote:YSRC will not sweep Andhra. TDP's recent performance in Andhra looks pretty good. I would say they might end up getting the most seats, but still not majority, and hence not able to form govt.

in Telangana, all depends on when TRS merges with INC. If KCR and INC are smart, then they will contest together (seat-sharing), and merge after elections. Just like they did with Chiranjeevi. together, INC and TRS will probably sweep Telangana with heavy margins in every district. I would be really surprised if they didn't.

but the above scenario doesn't bother me. TRS should merge. as long as TRS remains, there is chance that Telangana politics will transform into the same kind as AP's. INC vs Regional-party. so, it's good that TRS/KCR are thinking of merging with Congress.

There are so many timings that needs to be calculated. The UPA has to do this very swiftly and with super speed and also go for an early election. Otherwise all that they are planning cannot happen.

TDP
Even though TDP played safe and was on a revival path, the people on the Andhra side will question his silence. However, the party has the abilities to tell that they are in opposition all the while and do not have much leverage. He can even open his heart and could achieve sympathy vote as well. On the T side, his party still has the better grass root support and there is a lot of vote in HYD and surroundings. There are similar pockets in Nalgonda, Khammam etc. The advantage for him in T areas is that he has now nothing to lose. With the impending TRS merger with congress, there are key caste groups which will be skeptical to go with Mullah+Velama (pure Nizam rule) combo and that is what he needs to exploit. However, if there is wave in Telangana as KCR being the champion then it is going to be different. There are chances to dent. If CBN thinks out of box and as T ambiguity is over, he should go with BJP to ensure that votes are not split. (Note that BJP has substantial votes). Financing will not be that an issue. Watch out Telangana Reddys who are comparatively rich and need an alternative.

Congress
Congress+TRS is already announced. They will be riding on Muslim vote (anti-Modi fervor) and will inch for Telangana wave. However, it will 100% has to be financed by central command as there will be not huge local financiers like past. I really cannot see any congress in Andhra+Rayalaseema. There will be backlash for sure even if there is no violence. The congress financiers and big biz will look for alternatives beyond both Congress and Jagan. They need a new central party beyond congress. Note that these folks were always in congress rain or shine. For the first time they will have to see a greener pastures. It may sound odd but they need a new ship and hence they will have to look beyond INC and Sonia system. In Modi there is an opening there but it will take time to open up. Even the newer Kapu alignment of INC will backfire. Chiranjeevi has to find new boat and he just cannot be in INC and tell his folks that the division is good for Andhra. The real realignment will occur and Jagan's party pull will not be same. TDP does have a good change and the bar talks will be about how to reach to central ruler alternative to INC. Difficult to predict but TDP seems to be a default beneficiary.

Jagan
It is a mis-representation of reality if his machinery is called as pure an EJ venture. Ex-BJP leaders like Krishnam Raju, actors such as nagarjuna, giri babu, even Mahesh babu's dad G.Krishna are all in this venture capital. He has the pull of Reddy community which is 99% Hindus only. However, his EJ image is the reason to pull the dalit-christian. In voting parallel, dalits are only voters and nothing more than that. It is a pure assumption that YSRC will go naturally anti-BJP. There are open channels with G.Kishen Reddy (BJP chief), Reddy bros (ex-BJP) of Bellary and also others. It may be surprising for several here but his party's contact lines to BJP are more or less equal to that of TDP.

Congress has to pull a real fast one and give him bail and make him a Gandhi/Mandela just before elections to get him victorious. However, if it cannot make UPA number inspite of 30(14T and rest Jagan from A) from T+A there is no guarantee that 20 of this 30 will not swing in one way or other to NDA.

Any election after December there will no fizz in AP. If an election is between Oct and Dec then INC may have good advantage.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 31 Jul 2013 07:36

I am trying to analyze about Hyderabad city and its future.

Assume you are an average Telugu (from AP) service sector job What would you do? Would you sell your recently bought 30L-1Cr apartment at fire-sale prices and lose your capital and credit record (the banks will be same all over India)? Would you leave your current job to run to your home town?

I don't think so. The average telugu will wait for 10 year grace period (which is a loooooong time in avg. telugus productive life) and move only when there is atleast (net value) comparable opportunity comes on the Andhra side.

However if you are an average productive sector (construction, engineering and trade), there is a higher probability of moving out of Hyderabad to get an early entrant advantage on Andhra side.

So I think for next 10 years I predict -

1/ Hitech industry, jobs and talent will remain in Hyderabad and might settle there forever.
2/ civil, electrical and infra related jobs, talent and basic traders will move back to Andhra side as soon as the new capital city is finalized.
3/ higher education sector will stay back in Hyderabad (10 yrs is at least 5 generations of higher education - 5 batches)
4/ high chance that professors and teachers will move to Andhra (as soon as new opportunities come)
5/ Telangana people will enter only entry/mid level jobs in hyderabad (new jobs) high-end jobs will remain same.
6/ as rural Andhra population gets into entry/mid level industry jobs (civil and infra projects), the Agri-sector becomes heavily mechanized.
7/ after initial jubilation, there will be more and more Andhra people buying Agri land in Telangana.

After 10 years, hyderabad will be at least double the economy it is (7% growth for 10 years)

On the other hand Andhra side will grow at least 8-10% doubling its economy in next 8-9 years.

member_27444 · Post by **member_27444** » 31 Jul 2013 07:41

The destruction of statues on tank bund except that of
Mukhdom mounudin Ranga reddy et al has to be recalled to answer some questions

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 31 Jul 2013 07:43

Where does the majority of water for Hyd come from? is it part of telengana or AP?

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 31 Jul 2013 07:44

Telangana

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 31 Jul 2013 07:47

okay.. they can survive.. what about nagarjuna sagar? I see that as a big lake/dam on chacha. I would expect a bigger city that relies on this water.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 31 Jul 2013 08:12

The Centre has assured that the UT status for 10 years with a Lt Governor who has law and order in order to ensure no bad stuff happens. However going by Delhi track record might increase gang rapes.

Any way no need to be pessimistic.

And Pollavaram is to be declared a national project.

INC is not burning all its links to navya AP.

Also Hyd govt infrastructure is too big to sustain only 40% of the need.

So there could be need to help out in the out years from Center.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 31 Jul 2013 08:22

While Telangana was inevitable, keeping Hyd as Common Capital , Congis are trying to eat the cake and have it too. It might backfire and they might loose both the states in the process. Geographically , it is most untenable capital for rest of AP. Vizag, Rajamundry and Vijayawada are equally capable cities to become capital of rest of AP. If Telangana is inevitable then people of AP should move forward leaving behind the past and make anyone of them as capital or simply build new capital.

The notification of new 29th states of Union of India would still take long winded process starting with cabinet approval, resolution by present state assembly and passing of constitution amendment act with 2/3 majority and then presidential notification which would take four to five months and seems just before election 2014. As I remarked in now locked thread , 2014 would be watershed year for telangana. I am wrong about Hyd being common capital and I think it is a wrong decision which would haunt congis in elections and bjp would capitalise on this as they dont have AP in any case. NM would ask tough questions from congis on 11th Aug. His timing seems impeccable or is it Congis were eager to deny him any handle in his meeting to beat congis with??

Water sharing could be resolved by forming a management committee and tribunal for water award.

From per capita income telangan seems slightly better then national average and AP is less than National Average. So the charge of Telangana people seems to be correct that they were deprived of their due share by power hungry and greedy AP politicians.

When economic deprivation issues are raised, there is no question of linguistic unification because other biases are working against some communities despite linguistic affinities. Such biases get amplified due to real or perceived deprivation.

Now that Congis have conceded this Pandora box has been opened. Next Govt would have to contend with many more such demands. The only way to answer this issue is to empower local govt in a big way, making them financially self sustainable and giving them powers in vital areas of local interest. Babus are most averse to this.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 31 Jul 2013 08:25

RamaY wrote: So I think for next 10 years I predict -

1/ Hitech industry, jobs and talent will remain in Hyderabad and might settle there forever.
2/ civil, electrical and infra related jobs, talent and basic traders will move back to Andhra side as soon as the new capital city is finalized.
3/ higher education sector will stay back in Hyderabad (10 yrs is at least 5 generations of higher education - 5 batches)
4/ high chance that professors and teachers will move to Andhra (as soon as new opportunities come)
5/ Telangana people will enter only entry/mid level jobs in hyderabad (new jobs) high-end jobs will remain same.
6/ as rural Andhra population gets into entry/mid level industry jobs (civil and infra projects), the Agri-sector becomes heavily mechanized.
7/ after initial jubilation, there will be more and more Andhra people buying Agri land in Telangana.

After 10 years, hyderabad will be at least double the economy it is (7% growth for 10 years)

On the other hand Andhra side will grow at least 8-10% doubling its economy in next 8-9 years.

My comments on your prediction.

1. No Hardware or biotech companies worth came after Congress came in 2004 despite there is hardware or biotech parks. Except for immobile High-tech companies, whole industry freezes in the current state with some services moving out. Companies now put a leg in the other side to retain and attract talent (2/3 is non-T people anyway).

Key will be international airport. Vizag and Vijawada-Guntur will be boom towns in these areas. Hardcore and heavy-duty industries will go to RS districts.

2. Yes it will be boom area in new AP

3. Higher education also will freeze at current level but it will boom area also in new AP. New universities/xITs are planned as part of package anyway.

4. No need for old teachers and professors so they can't move.

5&6. can happen. Agri will be mechanized which is already happening for last few years.

7. Yes. Ranga Reddi and Khammam are Andhra-friendly, so things can continue as usual on Agri side. Khammam will be boom district in new Telangana. Buy land there if you can.