Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

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Arjun
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Arjun »

Theo_Fidel wrote:Housing classification has been driving me nuts. When it is first built it is an investment but from every day after it is a consumption item. I'm not sure I entirely understand this logic but technically all existing housing counts under consumption. If you put in marble tiles it is consumption, if you paint it, it is consumption, etc.
Guess the logic is that GDP remains unaffected by transfer of existing goods from one entity to another. GDP only increases through new products and services coming into the market.

Buying land also does not count towards investment, if I am not wrong...
vishvak
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by vishvak »

From another thread a discussion that perhaps has direct impact on Indian economy:
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 1#p1507111
The idea is how lack of tech affects economy directly due to tech JVs with 'international' players who are not neutral in field and in fact also have dubious policies like dual pricing for different countries.

1) About overall core tech
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 4#p1504664
and next post from me http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 3#p1504693

2) Claim by Indian companies forming JV that international conditions require something special or out of ordinary- for example increase in gas prices as per international standards. This can lead to all sorts of issues for example change in policies link

3) Effects of change in one core sector on others - for example oil and natural gas sector on overall inflation link

4) Steps taken by government against this:
Suggestions:
1) protect core industries from international conditions where JVs with tech companies involve change in economic situation
2) JVs conditional - eg with tech companies least involved in the sector for own interests
3) RnD for core tech as national goal - common sense
4) No 'internalization' of situation- international situation always full of interested parties
5) interdependence of core industries- reduce problems, increase advantages.

Also notice how govt has not released discovered oil fields for production that would significantly reduce CAD
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 0#p1501210
disha
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by disha »

Theo_Fidel wrote: Arjun,

Housing classification has been driving me nuts. When it is first built it is an investment but from every day after it is a consumption item. I'm not sure I entirely understand this logic but technically all existing housing counts under consumption. If you put in marble tiles it is consumption, if you paint it, it is consumption, etc.

Maybe Suraj can clarify...
For people who wonder is Housing an investment or consumption or is consumption after investment., here are some rhetorical question :

1. Is consuming food "consumption" or "investment"? That is consuming fast food, beer, wine, spirits ... is it consumption or investment?

2. Is "consuming" fashion - consumption or "investment"? Gucci, Prada, Jimmy Choos?

3. Is art consumption or investment? That is making fine jewellery, MF Hussain's white canvasses ....?

So when somebody puts marble in their home, they may be following the "crowd" (or to show that they have arrived) and some tiny clientiele will be putting in for beauty and aesthetics (check out the Dilwara temples in Mt. Abu for eg.)., BUT

* Marble mining becomes an industry - employing several thousands
* Demand/supply gaps for marble leads to innovations like faux marbles, research into other materials like granite/slate/quartz/ceramics/wood/steel etc
* For some solutions newer innovations are required
- Ever heard of laser cutting of marble?
- Ever heard of water cutting of marble and granite using ruby heads?

And each of those innovations lead to other industries (and some are borrowed from other industries)., for example a technique and tools to cut titanium are now routinely used to carve out single piece marble and granite. Beautiful and real value additions to any home - if you can afford it. The other side of the equation is that the tools and machinery being "reused" actually brings down the cost and this sustains an entire ecosystem of employment (low to high end, machinists to designers).

Of course one can bemoan that the marble is wasted when the house gets demolished, well there are building recyclers too!

So the point is :

Being too rational itself is irrational.
Cosmo_R
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Cosmo_R »

The fundamentals are irrelevant to market perceptions:

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/singh-fa ... 3zy3A.html

The talking heads feed on each other and collectively decide the market events tomorrow. For those conversant in 'momentum' theory vs what Amartya Sen thinks should happen, hers' what 's more likely to happen.

Little people make money when the market goes up. 'Big money' makes money regardless of direction.

It's all and only about demand/supply vs. fear/greed.

Best thing going right now is that gold holders in India who missed the highs are now bailing out at lower highs and that will reduce gold imports.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Vayutuvan »

vina wrote:Some basics of E-Con o-Mix.

Savings = Investment
What if most savings are in yellow metal (and now increasingly in white - platinum, white gold and diamond) ? Dead capital.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by SaiK »

deadlier capital :) . 90% of such wealth is held by wimmen! our wimmen are so eco-powerful.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Suraj »

matrimc wrote:
vina wrote:Some basics of E-Con o-Mix.
Savings = Investment
What if most savings are in yellow metal (and now increasingly in white - platinum, white gold and diamond) ? Dead capital.
Gold holdings coming through imports wouldn't constitute savings right now, because the -ve component in the calculation coming from the cost of importing that gold would eliminate it's contribution to savings. It will remain latent capital until it is monetized domestically within the financial system.

It therefore constitutes a simultaneous loss of demand - cash not spend on consumption of other manufactured goods and services domestically - and an exit of foreign exchange, and is a deflationary act (demand destruction) on the part of consumers responding to inflation by swapping their savings for a medium that will preserve the value of their savings.

The only way for GoI to effectively monetize this pile of domestic gold (approx 25,000 tons) is to generate growth and consumption, which will lead people to naturally monetize their stored capital in gold and seek to consume other manufactured goods and services.

Assuming about 20K tons of gold is in the hands of people willing to spend it if assured of continued economic strong growth and income prospects, this latent savings base adds close to $1 trillion in additional purchasing power at the nominal value of gold today, beyond the purchasing power generated by economic activity and income growth driven by productivity gains.
subhamoy.das
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by subhamoy.das »

I would say that money used to buy anything should be classified as consumption or demand. If later on a person changes his or her mind to become a reseller of that consumption is some thing controlled by his or her action which cannot be predicated upfront. But re-sellign should not add to GDP.
member_27444
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by member_27444 »

when new out put is created or out existing changes forms (including owner ship) it adds to productivity.

If a oil spill occurs and private and public sector mobilize to clean it up and say they recovered every ounce of oil back , even then GDP has gone up.


now find the difference

"India prints money ok include fake INR from TSP" then INR gets devalued official or unofficial (by inflation)
but
"The US dollar is being printed in unbelievable quantities and is no longer qualified to be the world reserve currency. The US dollar is on the verge of total worthlessness."

notice on the verge but not worthless why?

because your comparator is shirking so are other currencies as they are constrained by many factors to out grow the comparator, as at best it can be 1:1
in that case there is need to change the comparator or switch the comparator
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by gakakkad »

Gold might be a hedge against the economic uncertainties of India,as long as it retains an intrinsic value..however its macro-economic impact would depend on the the willingness of the population to monetise it...if it is simply circulated within the Indian economy,it would be less useful .if it is somehow utilised to build infrastructure,universities,power generation capacity,buy oil etc than it has more value....

presently it is perhaps more a liability than an asset...
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by TKiran »

Gurus, is there any link? When Honda was HeroHonda, Suzuki was TVSsuzuki, Mercedes was TATAMercedes, Toyota was KirloskarToyota we were able control them with conditions such as initially CKDs are OK, but in 3 years the local content should be 30% and in 5 years it should be 70% etc,

Now as 100% FDI is allowed in Automotive Sector, Companys such as Renault, Honda, etc are importing CKDs and are showing less interest in developing local supplyers with the same urgency as they used to show earlier. Alsosuch an I know a particular OEM which used to import 200% more CKDs than declared at the JNPT. Very difficult for customs officers to identify such anamolies. Even the 100% foreign owned Parts Supplyers are mushroomingmoand effective control is not possible and they are also importing the assemblys such as Turbochargeers engines front axles complete electrical kits sensors etc. earlier, it used to be very difficultto to source a lot of spdaare parts but now it takes only one day to get imported parts from bombay.

Surely they relaxed a lot of restrictions in imports without even public realized these policy changes. I too realized that 100% FDI was already allowed in Auto sector and similar sectors, and there was hue and cry when Retail sector was getting this. Surelysomewhere during 2009 we lost complete control on imports.

Request some more gyan from Gurus.
Theo_Fidel

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Theo_Fidel »

We have made many international commitments and free trade pacts that prevent wholesale tariffs like before. Some case by case is allowed. It is up to us to take advantage of the trade opportunities and find things to export.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by kumarn »

Suraj wrote: Assuming about 20K tons of gold is in the hands of people willing to spend it if assured of continued economic strong growth and income prospects, this latent savings base adds close to $1 trillion in additional purchasing power at the nominal value of gold today, beyond the purchasing power generated by economic activity and income growth driven by productivity gains.
Most people will almost never sell gold for consumption or for buying bonds etc. The only other thing which has equivalent "pull" for Indians is real estate.

A scheme where people can exchange their gold hoardings for land will work like a charm!
Theo_Fidel

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Theo_Fidel »

Meanwhile one little known item escapes attention. Investors are piling into Indian stocks to take advantage of the dive. The Sensex has barely budged. I went looking for bargains and folks have already beat me to it.

http://www.livemint.com/Money/PGW3ZxaId ... =also_read

Also one little nugget of info on car/parts imports.
http://india.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/09/ ... -industry/
The Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India, a trade group, reported that auto components worth $13.1 billion were imported in 2012-13.
This is something I have been pointing out a long time. We import all the bits and pieces needed for a modern economy. A cultural of 100% quality is needed.

http://india.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/09/ ... -downturn/
Mr. Nayak’s company, along with Indo-US MIM, is the type of industry economic policy makers in India have pined for — high-skilled manufacturing firms that partner with companies across the globe. At the moment, these Bangalore companies suffer from an infrastructure deficit that doesn’t involve potholes and bureaucratic red tape. The business network to fully support them inside India simply doesn’t exist. Tejas Networks must import roughly half of its materials and capital equipment since they are not produced in India. Any export gains from a historically low rupee, Mr. Nayak admitted, are a wash.

At Indo-US MIM, Mr. Shivashankar points to three of their pricey tooling machines quietly humming inside on the shop floor. They came from Germany, Switzerland and Singapore. “We tried some Indian components. It failed miserably,” he said.

If India were to produce the advanced machinery and metals they need, the story would be different. “Then the devaluation would be like Christmas,” lamented Mr. Chivukula. “It would just be unbelievable.”
Last edited by Theo_Fidel on 08 Sep 2013 22:22, edited 1 time in total.
vishvak
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by vishvak »

People buy gold out of own pocket. There is no subsidy or tax savings, in fact there is tax regime on gold for decades. In fact it is confiscation of personal property we are talking about.

To say that gold should be invested in some scheme/structures- it means that there exist such schemes which give more returns over time to justify investments. If there exist such schmes why do the schemes managers need gold for such schemes?

Fact is these gold x/y/z investment scheme is a way to convert gold into paper gold or currency - which can later be manipulated by others - for example depreciation.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Suraj »

kumarn wrote:Most people will almost never sell gold for consumption or for buying bonds etc. The only other thing which has equivalent "pull" for Indians is real estate.

A scheme where people can exchange their gold hoardings for land will work like a charm!
Well, that would be an example of monetizing the gold and it being exchanged for consumption - the amount of gold they're asked to exchange would depend on the nominal land valuation. Further, such land would be probably be developed because unlike gold that retains latent value based on inflation but does not generate any yield, land needs development and maintenance to retain value, but is also capable of returning substantial yield through rental income.

In my view, 1-2 decades of consistent growth will progressively see a substantial part of private gold holdings move into the hands of the central bank, as it is monetized progressively by people focussed on income growth and quality of life, and less focussed on savings-preservation and inflation hedging, as is the case now.

This isn't a conspiracy or a threat to our way of life - it's just evolution of public taste. 20 years ago if you said kids would be spending tons of money on electronics as opposed to saving it, it would not have been believed, and would have been treated with disdain as a western influence. Well, a few years of strong growth changed consumption patterns significantly. 10-20 years of substantial growth, which would put us into mid income category, would be even more dramatic.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by TSJones »

In the US the long term capital gains tax (held more than a year) on gold and precious metals is 28%. What is it in India? Just asking.....
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by krishnan »

dont thin ti applies to gold in india

http://www.yourmoney.co.in/long-term-ca ... -india.htm
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by kumarn »

10-20 years the behavior might change and people may liquidate their personal gold. But today if govt wants the gold out, nothing other than real estate will work. Of course in my very humble opinion.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Suraj »

kumarn wrote:10-20 years the behavior might change and people may liquidate their personal gold. But today if govt wants the gold out, nothing other than real estate will work. Of course in my very humble opinion.
True, my horizon was definitely not 'now', but much longer. I think the exchange of gold for RE is a very smart idea. GoI could liquidate some of its RE holdings in exchange for gold that goes into the RBI vaults or is translated into bullion to feed the domestic demand instead of entirely basing on imports.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by brihaspati »

Suraj wrote: Gold holdings coming through imports wouldn't constitute savings right now, because the -ve component in the calculation coming from the cost of importing that gold would eliminate it's contribution to savings. It will remain latent capital until it is monetized domestically within the financial system.

It therefore constitutes a simultaneous loss of demand - cash not spend on consumption of other manufactured goods and services domestically - and an exit of foreign exchange, and is a deflationary act (demand destruction) on the part of consumers responding to inflation by swapping their savings for a medium that will preserve the value of their savings.

The only way for GoI to effectively monetize this pile of domestic gold (approx 25,000 tons) is to generate growth and consumption, which will lead people to naturally monetize their stored capital in gold and seek to consume other manufactured goods and services.
Suraj,
there is perhaps a systematic blood letting of gold from certain European quarters, especially Bank of England. We have a method of looking at macro factors together with items like gold, crude, etc., and look for deviations of one or more [looking at level sets of mutivariate quadratics]. Gold seems to have been strategically manipulated and artificially against exchange rates, and what one of my students showed me as perhaps against also crude. This could onlee have been at the biggest player levels and not the aam consumer.

So the future price of gold may not rise or stabilize at upward levels as projected now, and could even go for a fall.

The thing is where will people invest in desh? The cost of investment is high, with an array of non-producers and non-contributors waiting to take their cuts using simply their nuisance values. Which means investments if at all goes into large, centrally managed, instituitionalized players assuring some security but lower returns. There is not much incentive in the system to encourage taking slightly above average risks in terms of entrepreneurship. Growth at this stage can come onlee from a proliferation of smaller-than-fashionable enterprises, which individually have lower amounts destroyed if they fail compared to huge investment ones, and have lesser aggregate impact in damage terms on the overall economy. But it spawns innovation and individual participation, motivation for growth far above the "get a secured naukri preferably with hafta opportunity" mentality. It will simultaneously lower costs of operation and spread the dough around more.

These are perhaps old medicines. But you talk of growth and measures - how can you do that without looking at all these concrete difficulties that require political and cultural corrections?

In some of the vulnerable/elderly women's shelters I helped set up - I initially thought in terms of more sophisticated industries [even if small scale], but later on switched to simpler versions that could be sustained without great inputs from advanced manufacturies. The first task is to have the first baby steps of accumulation at the grassroots level - from existing techs, whose raw material and ingredients can be sourced locally or conveniently or cheaply and long term easy procurability. I finally landed up into a combination of arid-area low-level farming [low poly-tunnels made out of plain ordinary plastic and not the more hi-fi UV stabilized agricultural grade], water harvesting, small hydel, and hand-to-small-powered looms. Then there were also cultural barriers to break - enticing widows to take eggs and in some cases even pulses. But they have become self-sustaining and have started to show signs of accumulation. Which means independent provision of a pension resource - which is not just about money. If the consumption requirements of the elderly could also be maintained cheaply in an integrated system which produced their food and a lot of other daily needs cheaply and sustainbly on their own, the costs of pensioning could also be held low.

I walked on air for a whole week and did not shout at anyone the first time I saw the books showing green and a small amount could be set aside as capital.

I don;t know about large scale investments [I mean I know, but not interested]. I want to see lower living costs, managed and controlled by the consumer herself, and something that will be a safe bet for them to rely on. Then to pool the surplus from there and fuel more sophisticated forms of generation of value. What is happening now is a strange growth with rapidly lowering purchasing power and long terms ecurity for a very large number of people - who will be pushed into dependence on welfare. This will mean the growth will onlee be sustainable by ever increasing nominal prices of non-basics and on ever decreasing actual numbers of products since manufacturers will avoid the risk of loss by marking up on a smaller quantity.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by panduranghari »

Cosmo_R wrote:
The talking heads feed on each other and collectively decide the market events tomorrow. For those conversant in 'momentum' theory vs what Amartya Sen thinks should happen, hers' what 's more likely to happen.

Little people make money when the market goes up. 'Big money' makes money regardless of direction.

It's all and only about demand/supply vs. fear/greed.
s.
Kind of agree. link
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by panduranghari »

Suraj wrote: Gold holdings coming through imports wouldn't constitute savings right now, because the -ve component in the calculation coming from the cost of importing that gold would eliminate it's contribution to savings. It will remain latent capital until it is monetized domestically within the financial ........
The only way for GoI to effectively monetize this pile of domestic gold (approx 25,000 tons) is to generate growth and consumption, which will lead people to naturally monetize their stored capital in gold and seek to consume other manufactured goods and services.

Assuming about 20K tons of gold is in the hands of people willing to spend it if assured of continued economic strong growth and income prospects, this latent savings base adds close to $1 trillion in additional purchasing power at the nominal value of gold today, beyond the purchasing power generated by economic activity and income growth driven by productivity gains.
The latent capital is deployed in times of need. Ask the Cypriots or the Portuguese.

What's wrong in it remaining latent capital?

If an American citizen can work and earn about a dollar, why should an Indian labourer not earn his dollar by working and earning his 69 rupees?

The close to trillion dollars generated by deploying gold is easily neutralised by the printing presses at Constitution Avenue in Washington DC as they can print 2 trillion. Do you think the Federal Reserve is going to stop the quantitative easing? USG spends daily about 2.5billion dollars and gets approximately in return 2.1 billion dollars. A daily short fall of 0.4 billion dollars.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Bade »

There is a silver lining in all this afterall. Just needs more scale to meet up with the PRC juggernaut.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/busi ... uote][b]As rupee falls, exporters take on China[/b]
Shilpa Phadnis & Sujit John, TNN | Sep 9, 2013, 02.26AM IST
BANGALORE: "With the drop in the rupee, we are now much cheaper than China. We can today manufacture some products at 10% lower costs," says V Raja, MD of TE Connectivity India, which designs and manufactures products that connect and protect the flow of power, data and signals.

Raja, who has been with TE Connectivity since 2011 and who was CEO of GE Healthcare India for the seven years prior to that, says his parent company - the $13-billion US entity previously called Tyco Electronics - is examining the economics of exporting more out of India. "We are establishing a new facility in Bangalore, and we could create additional capacity for export if needed," he said.

The potential silver lining in the massive drop in the rupee value is beginning to emerge.

Manufacturing has been one of India's weakest links, but the rupee fall now makes a variety of products more exportable or import-substitutable. China, which has been the factory to the world for many years, has seen its currency actually appreciate slightly against the dollar during the past few months that the rupee collapsed, making Indian products even more attractive.

J Crasta, whose company CM Envirosystems makes environmental testing chambers to test a whole range of products, including missiles, says his exports have risen three-fold this year, in part due to the rupee depreciation. "By the end of the year, we might touch Rs 25 crore in exports, compared to about Rs 4 crore last year. We improved our product quality a lot, making them as good as or better than German and Japanese ones. But thanks to the rupee, we are now very, very competitive globally. The Japanese want to buy from us, and seeing that some Italians have come to us," says. Crasta, who is also the Karnataka head of industry chamber Assocham.

The depreciation comes at a time when the government has initiated significant measures to boost manufacturing.

Under the modified special incentive package scheme for the electronics sector announced last year, wherein it provides an attractive capital subsidy, the government is said to have already received project proposals worth Rs 11,500 crore. Of these, some have been approved, including a Rs 406-crore investment by Samsung to manufacture smartphones in Noida, and a Rs 544-crore investment by Bosch Automotive Electronics to make electronic control units of cars.

"The rupee depreciation is the icing on the cake," says P V G Menon, president of the India Electronics & Semiconductor Association (IESA). A study by IESA, which is yet to be concluded and which seeks to understand India's disability in manufacturing in comparison to China, finds that India has a 12-13% disability in certain high volume products, but has a 1-2% advantage in certain other industrial products such as flat panel displays. "Now with the depreciation, these figures may be more in favour of India. Labour in China has become four times as expensive as in India, and many companies are today looking at a China-plus-one strategy. So we should benefit," Menon says.

Electronic products is one of India's biggest import items currently, and is growing so rapidly (it grew 30% to Rs 1.57 lakh crore in 2011-12 over the previous year) that some estimate it will cross the oil import bill by 2020 if there aren't major import substitution efforts.

"In the last 18 months, there has been some movement in manufacturing from China to India largely in precision engineering as we are equipped in terms of technology and people. Also, China has lost its price-competitiveness in regular manufacturing," says Tamilselvan Sankaran, technical director in Detroit-headquartered engineering support services and technology solutions company EASi Engineering. But he says he is yet to see an impact due to the rupee depreciation.

For most, that could take time. It takes time to change customer mindsets and in many cases, companies have signed long-term contracts.

Sanjay Nayak, co-founder of Tejas Networks that makes telecom optical transmission products, says Indian customers have the choice to buy from Tejas or from a foreign vendor. "Many today have contracts with foreign vendors, but they should be motivated to shift in the medium term," he says. Nayak says Tejas is also more export-competitive now - it sells in over 60 countries - given that 50% of the cost of his product is the value addition that the Indian company makes on top of imported components.

But some of the older challenges to exports and manufacturing continue and will limit the potential. Infrastructure in terms of roads and ports are still problem areas. "Anomalies in the tax structure has to be rectified," says Anwar Shirpurwala, executive director in hardware association MAIT, referring to the lower customs duties on finished products in comparison to that on components.

TE Connectivity's Raja says labour laws are a critical concern for his parent company. "If I can't downsize in bad times, it's a big problem for me because we operate at very low margins. Global companies recognize India's capabilities, even Airbus and Boeing buy from me. If some of the problem areas are addressed, the potential is huge," he says.[/quote]
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by panduranghari »

gakakkad wrote:Gold might be a hedge against the economic uncertainties of India,as long as it retains an intrinsic value..however its macro-economic impact would depend on the the willingness of the population to monetise it...if it is simply circulated within the Indian economy,it would be less useful .if it is somehow utilised to build infrastructure,universities,power generation capacity,buy oil etc than it has more value....

presently it is perhaps more a liability than an asset...
Sir there are certain flaws in that point of view.

It's important to understand the history of money. Slightly longish, but I request you to entertain this view. It's quite scenic.

All throughout the early times, prior to BC and into some AD, people didn't see the gold coins as we think of money today. These various gold coins had tremendous value, but they were just gold pieces. They were wealth for trade like everything else was.. That's simple logic, I know, but the vessel of oil, for instance was just as tradable as a gold coin. In fact, within most of the medium sizes city states of that era, barter of like goods was just as good or better than gold coin. One's life was better if he owned wealth he used.

Humans of that period didn't live all that long a time span. Even though some accounts prove otherwise, the majority of life went by rather quickly. If you were a regular part of society in general, your wealth was what you had and consumed during those short days. There were no banks or investment houses and the average person's return on a wealth unit was his length of use and it's quality of life enhancement. More to the point, this logic made these guys spenders of gold, rather than savers! If you had gained gold in trade, for your services or goods supplied, you had no reason to save it. There was no other money that needed to be hedged against value loss.

It's becoming more and more apparent that average people of that time quickly traded (spent) their gold for something useful of value, for both them and their family. They didn't have the excess we know today. In modern nomenclature; this logic dictates that a much smaller amount of gold money circulated and circulated faster than many supposed. All forms of jewlery and art objects were in the same situation.

For longer savings, even for those of above average means that had all they wanted, people tended to spend their most valuable gold coins first, while saving the least valuable (bronze, silver, iron) for emergencies and later use. To us, today this sounds strange, but place yourself in that time. It was better to build your most useful and needed store of things while times were good.

Therefore, you traded the gold, which brought the most equal trade, first. If things got so bad that one had to dig up the stash, you were trading for last ditch things anyway. Kind of like wrapping up and burying cto get yThis use of lower metal is suported. Remember, lots of things served as money objects them. Even much later, AD, it was common in the world to trade big iron bricks that were forged as a bull. It's use was in trade for "one bull" or something of that animal's value.

This tends to explain why so many hordes of lesser quality, non gold coins are always being found today. Roman silver, bronze, iron, copper coins are very common in digs at various archaeological sites in southern Bharat. The classic belief is that all the gold was found, melted down and recast. But that action just didn't fit the whole profile of life's need back then. The majority of gold in average and even upper hands was always on the move, in trade or payment for service. Each succession of ruler, simply reused the old coins or melted them down and restruck with a new image. And new gold was minted only if it was easy to find. Especially stolen jewlery. Mined gold was a very last resort.

Remember, real useful goods crowded a rich ruler's house, too and these were just as valuable and tradable as gold. Besides, far too many finds have come up with jewelry and no coins to suggest some robbery by thieves sold the coins to new rulers with melting pots. The gold would have been taken whether coin or art.

Taxes were paid in goods, service or coin (preferably gold) and regular people knew it. Far better to trade your gold and save your wealth in a bulky form so the tax man's take at least has a chance of taking less than enough. To store your wealth in gold and risk him finding and taking it all was just not acceptable.

The great gold stores we have found almost always point to their being the reserves of a rich ruling class. Just like modern billionaires, after too much comes excess and gold was the only alternative for someone with guards and regular army.

More and more evidence is mounting that the largest portion of gold, during this early period was, "On The Road"! The perception that every person had some portion of gold as savings is blunted by their lack of need for such wealth. Gold was needed and used to spend "On The Road" more so than in local domains. Whether for armies or traveling merchants, gold moved more than it was saved. Even gold in the form of art was "fair game" for the regular people to use as a tradable medium. In fact it was just as likely used as money "on The Road" as coins. This further explains the findings of small amounts of jewelry in most of the locations where small towns were located.

We find gold more in the "upper status" burial places of great cities in Europe than in the areas where common man traded, lived and kept his personal worth. We further conclude that gold was much harder to find and utilize, back then than many supposed. Yes, great amounts were around, but the reality was that these amounts were perhaps 1/2 or less than many others conclude. Simply because finding or producing gold meant displacing labor that could be making barter able goods of equal value. Besides, gold that was in trade, was valuable enough that what existed mostly covered it's need in long distance commerce. This further points to a much greater value for a much lesser amount of gold while it was used during this period.

When evaluating lifestyle wealth, back them, many often find themselves comparing things in a relative mode with today's perspective. In this position we think the mark has been far missed for gold worth. It's possible that gold payment, in these early times amounted to a hugh premium compared to today. The various goods and lifestyle conditions in existence, indicate a much higher relative worth for their goods of daily life. Thereby giving gold a much greater relative worth within one's life also. If a one stater Darius of gold, from Cyrus of Persia was worth a very valuable vessel of oil, why utilize the effort to find gold just to trade for some oil. Better to skip the gold production and make the oil. This was the norm for thinking by people not trading on the road, living "within local" city states. Indeed, outside the need to pay armies, a much smaller amount of gold did the job much better than us modern thinkers thought was necessary. Further, the use of oversea warfare and trade perhaps lost more gold into the ocean than we will ever know. The oft heard statement by roman Caesars was the draining of gold from Rome into the coffers of India is not lies.

Consider these possibilities well. In that gold today is in a much lesser existence, compared to modern goods supply and lifestyle enhancements, when comparing it to it's value in life in the past. It's true worth as a wealth medium could be a 1,000 times higher!
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Rishirishi »

Indias greatest disadvantage lies in the lack of honoring the word and making commitment. Any Indian will always answer yes we can do it, even if there are no intentions of doing so. And if they fail to deliver, there is nothing you can do about it. In Germany, Scandinavia, Switzerland etc you can take someone to court even on the basis on an offer. If they fail to deliver swift action will be taken by court. In India, you can forget about courts, and the people are simply say yes without the slightest sense of responsibility or shame.

Hence subcontractors cant be trusted, and it becomes near impossible to deliver good quality.

Second problem is a "chalta hai" attitide. Basically of something is 99% leakproof and comes at half the cost, they will go for it. somehow they just forget about the damage caused by 1% leakage.

Third problem is the over focus on PRICE. A typical way to get contractors in India, would be to negotiate price price price. Finally the bidder with the worst quality will win. People simply do not appreciate that good quality costs extra. Strange thing is they will purchase the most expensive fittings, fixtures and tiles for their bathroom. But will pick a builder on price, and we all know the result.

In Norway for example, any plumber or electrician need to first study 3 years in school and then 2 years of apprentership. Finally they give the exam.

India needs to focus on quality culture.
Theo_Fidel

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Theo_Fidel »

^^^

Well said saar.

The SoKo & Japanese folks have been able to whip our population into a world class worker culture.
We need to take this whip to ourselves into becoming a high quality work force.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Arjun »

India's Warren Buffet is worth listening to: I am positive on India: Rakesh Jhunjhunwala
Q: How are you feeling about the market because things around us have not been great; earnings, growth, the overall picture seems to be not very friendly. Do you worry that the market may fall further?

A: I do not surely seeing the precarious situation that we all are both physically and mentally in. I still retain (my) full confidence in India. I still think that India will grow in double-digits; it may take two, it may take three but it is not going to take five years. I feel this country is gone into a process of consolidation and correction. I like the way the other organs of democracy have responded to all the mis-governance. That gives me great confidence in this country. So, although I should be worried that market could fall in the short-term, but I am not worried. I think so be it. How is it going to affect me? Maybe the value of my portfolio may come down by some amount, but that does not affect me because I do not mark my portfolio to market everyday.

Q: How much time will it take in your eyes? Do you think it can happen only after a new government comes into play? Is that what you are pinning your hopes on for the turnaround?

A: The real turnaround will come only with the new government but the confidence if the market and the people feel that they will get a government, which will be good for the market and for the economics of the country— it could. It is a matter of confidence. The moment confidence returns, everything will return. We do not have inspiring leadership. Mr. Chidambaram is trying what he can. But he is also placed in a corner.

Q: Even if it’s the same government again or are you hoping that it will be a different government led by a different man?

A: You can believe or somebody else can believe that with this kind of mis-governance this government is going to be reelected. I think with the kind of feeling people have, they are going to reelect this government. I see absolutely a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led government coming.

Q: Just a BJP led government would be good enough for you or you are saying Narendra Modi Prime Minister is what you are pinning your hopes on for a turnaround?

A: If BJP could form the government then there is no doubt in mind that Mr. Modi is going to be the Prime Minister even any other Prime Minister at least that government won’t have a (not sure --- bogy), it will be able to blame the problems of the past government and it will be able to take steps which are necessary.

Q: I am only asking you whether because of the electoral math and how it shaped up, for some reason if a Manmohan Singh led UPA government were to come back, would you then take a more deem view of this market?

A: I do not want to contemplate things which will not happen because today distinctly there is a trend away from the United Progressive Alliance (UPA). Did anybody predict, no poll, no individual ever predicted in 2009 that the Congress will get more than 180-185 seats but they landed up getting 209 seats. So, there is a trend and that trend will accentuate. I personally feel that BJP may get between 200 and 205 seats.
Last edited by Arjun on 09 Sep 2013 13:41, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Vadivel »

Rishirishi wrote:Indias greatest disadvantage lies in the lack of honoring the word and making commitment. Any Indian will always answer yes we can do it, even if there are no intentions of doing so. And if they fail to deliver, there is nothing you can do about it. In Germany, Scandinavia, Switzerland etc you can take someone to court even on the basis on an offer. If they fail to deliver swift action will be taken by court. In India, you can forget about courts, and the people are simply say yes without the slightest sense of responsibility or shame.

Hence subcontractors cant be trusted, and it becomes near impossible to deliver good quality.

Second problem is a "chalta hai" attitide. Basically of something is 99% leakproof and comes at half the cost, they will go for it. somehow they just forget about the damage caused by 1% leakage.

Third problem is the over focus on PRICE. A typical way to get contractors in India, would be to negotiate price price price. Finally the bidder with the worst quality will win. People simply do not appreciate that good quality costs extra. Strange thing is they will purchase the most expensive fittings, fixtures and tiles for their bathroom. But will pick a builder on price, and we all know the result.

In Norway for example, any plumber or electrician need to first study 3 years in school and then 2 years of apprentership. Finally they give the exam.

India needs to focus on quality culture.

I second this, the commitment level is very low as far as Indian work ethic is considered. The moment the going gets tough, they drop the ball and start saying excuses. I don't know about other country work ethics, but the Japanese work ethic(not their working hours, mind you) is someone we should emulate. If they say yes, you can usually shut it(thinking about) and forget about it, it will get delivered on time on quality even if they are dead.

I for one don't mind that Indian schools teach a adaptive version Japanese work ethic or protestant work ethic.
member_27444
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by member_27444 »

Gold in India is consumption
Not investmentAnd it is not In Bullion
But only 22 caret at the most , mostly around 18 caret
Arjun
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Arjun »

rhytha wrote:I for one don't mind that Indian schools teach a adaptive version Japanese work ethic or protestant work ethic.
German work ethic would be more appropriate. There are a number of Protestant majority countries doing pitifully on work ethic...
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by RamaY »

Amyrao wrote:Gold in India is consumption
Not investmentAnd it is not In Bullion
But only 22 caret at the most , mostly around 18 caret
Not necessarily. There is lot of commodity trading happening and many people I know are holding on to gold and silver as investment. I am talking about 3-tier town business circles.
Cosmo_R
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Cosmo_R »

The root causes of the current crisis are basic and pretty boring:

"If India had better infrastructure and more availability of power I may not have gone abroad," said Shaw, who followed in her father's footsteps with a master's degree in brewing in Australia before setting up Biocon in her garage in Bangalore 35 years ago.

"We don't have enough power, we don't have enough water. So some of these projects where we need water and power, I will do it in Malaysia because that's where it is abundant," Shaw, who is ranked 92 in India's rich list with a net worth of $625 million, told Reuters in an interview.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/busi ... 431205.cms

Meanwhile the Editorial Board of the NYT piles on the agony

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/09/opini ... se.html?hp
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Najunamar »

Quite interesting to see discussions of the "Protestant work ethic". Some years ago I was in a survey at a Yum Bee Yay program where they announced the results as being indicative of a great "Hindu work ethic" that should be propagated to the rest of the communities ..... and this was in a top tier school too :D :D :D
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by vishvak »

Total gold holding in India is about 2,00,000crore or about 50billion$ which is about 1/4th of oil imports only - one time only.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by RamaY »

vishvak wrote:Total gold holding in India is about 2,00,000crore or about 50billion$ which is about 1/4th of oil imports only - one time only.
Vishvak garu,
:)

You are speaking to deaf men of Indian Economy.

They want to ban/take-back gold from Indians because the gold is from Hindu temples and it is a Hindu culture. Our focus is on making Hindus civilized and has nothing to do with economic facts.

Please tell us if you have any bright ideas on how the idiotic policies of GoI can be justified, explained and praised.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by sanjaykumar »

Actually it is $1 to 2 trillion.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by RamaY »

sanjaykumar wrote:Actually it is $1 to 2 trillion.
Yes. For that you need to take all the gold from 1.21 billion people.

RBI and GOI are failing to collect taxes :rotfl: correctly, leave alone stripping the gold from all the citizens. Often GOI cannot do the census itself correctly or give proper Adhaar cards etc.,

We are talking about taking Gold from temples only at this point because it is the only secular thing to do.

Imagine GoI asking the 650 million people who come under FSB+NREGA to return their gold to save India. Unless the wisemen are telling us that only the remaining (rich, educated, civilized and secular) people have the gold. Then can we call it (hoarding Gold) a cultural millstone in India's neck, hain ji? What does it tell about the Secular/Macaulized/liberal/constipationalists?

This is the IQ levels of GOI and RBI :rotfl:
Theo_Fidel

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Theo_Fidel »

BTW I have been baffled by that too. The same GoI afsar types who screwed around in India, works his butt off in USA. What’s with that? We need to transfer that hindu work ethic to India.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Virupaksha »

Theo_Fidel wrote:BTW I have been baffled by that too. The same GoI afsar types who screwed around in India, works his butt off in USA. What’s with that? We need to transfer that hindu work ethic to India.
its simple risk-reward.

Do a bad job, get fired. Do a good job, get promoted and get more money.

When politics gets mixed...........

What did Sreedharan get when he got the konkan railway up and running? What happens to a officer who lazes around all day? End of month, both get the same salary and the lazy officer may actually get more promotions because of his birth or politics. What we have today is the mughal mansabdari system in british lingo.
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