AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

[Muppalla]

In 25 MP seats there is united AP force and Japan is the only politico supporting it. Cbn can make lot of sounds but anger is there on him also. So Jagan starts with advantage. Plus huge migration of inc gangs is expected into Japan gang soon. This will give him further advantage. So cbn need to work really hard and shall fully behind bjp allies. I personally know what he did in 2004 and such under hand ideas shall not be there with him. May be bjp ask him for 30 mp seats from ap. That will save bjp from lot of problems.

advantage will be there. If elections does not occur in the next month it will be just seat by seat and the contest will be straight between YSRC and TDP. Out of 25 it will be anyone's game

[gpati]

on a side note: have restarted reading the "musunuri nayakulu" given to me by gpati ji. visited the wikipedia page on it today.
looks like some BRF jingo went crazy to his/her heart's content!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Musunuri_Nayaks

Can you please share it? If it is PDF can you pls mail it to ramay dot BRF at googles....

I uploaded the scanned pdf of the book Musunuri Nayakulu on Scribd for Rama garu and other BRF members.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/170318157/Musunuri-Nayakulu

[RamaY]

Muppalla garu, you are repeating a broken tape, saying everything in AP is due to T-movement. it's not. KCR and his thugs are a minute force and are only looking so powerful b/c of INC stage-managing them form behind the curtains.

Devesh garu,

I think Muppala garu is correct. Right now, there is no other issue in people's mind that is more important than t-issue. Both sides want their preferred outcome and are going to support whoever seem to be the possible candidate to do it.

There is a myth created in entire Andhra Pradesh that YSR was a strong leader and the t-issue would have been killed if he is alive; this people believe without realizing the fact that TRS is nothing but Congress creation and has been controlled by Congress and YSR.

Now people think the following:
Congress - Drohi of everything, but is remaking its image as T-giver
TRS - If Congress gives T, who needs TRS?
BJP - They supported T but they are not the ones giving it.
TDP - Flip/Flop. Neither side can trust TDP for their preferred outcome
YSRCP - YSJ is viewed as a stubborn leader like YSR. His sitting in jail without making a deal with INC is viewed as strength (poor people dont know this is a pre-planned game). And he is now supporting United AP

That is why in Telangana, the fight will be between INC+TRS+MIM and TDP/BJP. This is gain Congress.
in Seemandhra area, it will be between YSRCP and TDP. Here congress is gone.

[devesh]

OK RamaY garu, if you say so. My bet is that INC is not done in Kosta. and I rest my case. Let's wait till elections and see what happens.

[RamaY]

OK RamaY garu, if you say so. My bet is that INC is not done in Kosta. and I rest my case. Let's wait till elections and see what happens.

very much possible. For majority of Kosta congress leaders are very rich and have community support system. But what I saw on the ground when i was there in August is any indication, majority of these people will not win, unless they join YSRCP.

There is a huge anti-congress wave in Andhra. The billion Rupee question is who will get the votes, YSRCP or TDP. Before CBN padayatra the wave was clearly for YSRCP. but it changed a bit since then.

My guess is as good as any other guess...

[Sushupti]

OK RamaY garu, if you say so. My bet is that INC is not done in Kosta. and I rest my case. Let's wait till elections and see what happens.

[Vayutuvan]

Who is krishnarjun?

[Rony]

"It's more about Telangana identity than development"

So its no longer development now ? Ok. Can someone explain to me briefly what is "Telangana identify" and how and why it became different from say 'Andhra Identity'. Telangana was ruled by Muslims and Andhras by British and hence they have two different "identities". Assuming if that is the case, how different this logic is from say Jinnah's two nation theory . Apologies if it sounds provocative but i am genuinely trying to grasp things here.

The argument that the Telangana state always existed, separately from Andhra and Rayalaseema regions, prior to Independence, and the formation of linguistic states, is not a sufficient justification for the demand. What existed earlier under the Nizam was a feudal state that depended on an agrarian system of landlords and revenue administration that nobody can think of going back to. The reasons are more contemporary.

If we agree that the reasons are more contemporary (political) reasons, then why does one have to bring up "Telangana identity" in the middle to justify separation ?

All the governments since the formation of the unified state – both Congress and non-Congress governments have ignored the ‘gentlemen’s agreement’. Since then the policies pursued have been favourable to coastal Andhra. These pertain to jobs in the government and public sector, irrigation projects and policies of education and health. The bias always was toward the non-Telangana areas.

Fair enough.But how is this different from perceived discrimination against Rayalseema or Northern Andhra.

Secondly, the present conjuncture is characterised, and is a result of, the policies pursued by the Telugu Desam and Congress governments over the last fifteen years. The N T Rama Rao regime which came to power in 1983 through the Telugu Desam Party championed the ‘Telugu pride’ and ‘self respect’ vis-à-vis the Centre. Later, NTR shifted the Telugu film industry from Chennai to Hyderabad. This was a huge subterranean shift; from then onwards two processes happened: one, propagation of a discourse of Telugu pride and two, systematic rehabilitation of coastal Andhra interests in Hyderabad. Thirdly, the subsequent Chandrababu Naidu government qualitatively changed its tack and concentrated on a paradigm shift from NTR-style populism to neo-liberalism. Naidu, in his rule of about a decade, did his best to attract internal investment from coastal Andhra and external investment from the multinational corporate sector in high-tech industries.
He built the infrastructure needed for this in Hyderabad. There was also systematic exodus of coastal Andhra investors to Hyderabad. The rural sector and agriculture were neglected, which resulted in a large numbers of farmers’ suicides; these particularly happened in Telangana.

Andhras moving to Hyderabad and expanding their influence in the city ? is that even a valid genuine reason ? Where will anyone move other than to capital city ?

So far, the movement has been led largely by the Osmania University students and the Joint Action Committee consisting of major political groupings. The situation today is that the movement has spread to rural areas and grassroots; not only students but the activists of Telangana are also committing suicide in desperation.

This is what happens when imagined grievances are hyped up and all the blames are put on imagined outsiders.The fire has been lit and everyone are bearing the consequences of instability which is pushing the state even further as if Naxalism/EJ/MIM are not enough.

[vishvak]

NaMo said something like when Bihar and Chattisgadh were formed there were no such issues during NDA regime. There is no way UPA going to allow this well apparently.

[RamaY]

"It's more about Telangana identity than development"

So its no longer development now ? Ok. Can someone explain to me briefly what is "Telangana identify" and how and why it became different from say 'Andhra Identity'. Telangana was ruled by Muslims and Andhras by British and hence they have two different "identities". Assuming if that is the case, how different this logic is from say Jinnah's two nation theory . Apologies if it sounds provocative but i am genuinely trying to grasp things here.

Rony garu,

Even that claim "Telangana was ruled by Nizam and Andhra by Britishers" is false.

Nizam state formed in 1724. And in 1823 Seemandhra became part of British Madras state.

Nizam got Rs 50,000 per year from Seemandhra as rent from 1768 to 1823. Rs 50,000 in those days is equivalent to Rs 775 crores in today's money at 5% annual interest (Nizam would charge much higher interest rate - up to 24%, but hey Seemandhra people are dhimmis). So between 1768 and 1823, Nizam got Rs 42000 crores worth of rent from Seemandhra. On top of this money, Nizam gave up Seemandhra to British for he couldnt pay his dues for renting British mercenary army. So one can deduce that Seemandhra directly/indirectly financed the safety of Telangana region between 1768-1823.

So if one says Hyderabad is for Telangana onlee, one can only laugh at his (a) lack of knowledge (b) idiocy and most importantly (c) Pakiness.

Sources:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyderabad_State

The region became part of the Mughal Empire in the 1680s. When the empire began to weaken in the 18th century, Asif Jah defeated a rival Mughal governor's attempt to seize control of the empire's southern provinces, declaring himself Nizam-al-Mulk of Hyderabad in 1724.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Circars

In 1765 Lord Robert Clive obtained from the Mughal emperor Shah Alam a grant of the five Circars. Hereupon the fort of Kondapalli was seized by the British, and on November 12, 1766 a treaty of alliance was signed with Nizam Ali by which the Company, in return for the grant of the Circars, undertook to maintain troops for the Nizam's assistance. By a second treaty, signed on March 1, 1768, the nizam acknowledged the validity of Shah Alam's grant and resigned the Circars to the Company, receiving as a mark of friendship an annuity of 50,000. Guntur, as the personal estate of the Nizam's brother Basalat Jang, was excepted during his lifetime under both treaties. He died in 1782, but it was not till 1788 that Guntur came under British administration. Finally, in 1823, the claims of the Nizam over the Northern Circars were bought outright by the Company, and they became a British possession.

[RamaY]

Even if we assume Seemandhra and Telangana should get proportional share, Seemandhra should get 40% of Hyderabad.

RamaY garu, geography is totally against it. It would not happen. UT is one option but short term. MHA may not agree to wild dreams of Khangrace.

United AP is too big to manage. and Khangrace wields too much power over central politics because AP voters refuse to be enlightened or so it seems.

I believe that AP politicians have surpassed corruption of Laloo by a widest margin just as TN politicos esp black goggles wearing variety.

.It is time for Seemandhra to bear the pangs of birth of a new state and get a New Capital as well.

Chanakya garu,

There is political-T and commoner-T. Similarly there is political-SA and commoner-SA.

The political-T is blaming even commoner-SA for the issues it has with political-SA; thus making commoner-T confused and hate commoner-SA.

The commoner-SA in their agitation is keeping political-SA completely out of the equation. Their call is to commoner-T and not political-T.

Coming to Hyderabad, yes geography is not right. By that logic, the geography of Telangana is also not right. I do not believe that too-big to manage logic. In this day of technological advance it is not logical to make those artificial boundaries.

That said, AP is fair for bi/trifurcation if it is done universally all over india with same set of rules and criteria. As and when that happens, we all believe Hyderabad must remain with its surrounding areas.

If you read peoples posts here, everyone is against center grabbing Hyderabad from both Telangana and SA people.

[Yagnasri]

There were no issues because no one preached hate day after day then. The divisions were done after obtaining unanimous consent from state assembly. That is not goingbto be there in case of AP. Division of AP if happens is going to be a forced thing. Done to political - short term - gain for congee mafia. Japan criminal gang is part of it and will join upa 3 if Modi does not win. Stopping INC in AP is a must now.

[RamaY]

Chanakya garu,

There is political-T and commoner-T. Similarly there is political-SA and commoner-SA.

I agree with your dichotomy and it explains the current situation to a great extent.

The political-T is blaming even commoner-SA for the issues it has with political-SA; thus making commoner-T confused and hate commoner-SA.

I think it is time for saner voices to make their presence felt. People should be made to see through the political mechanism.

The commoner-SA in their agitation is keeping political-SA completely out of the equation. Their call is to commoner-T and not political-T.

That could be the redeeming feature provided it does not turn violent. We don't want precious lives lost

Coming to Hyderabad, yes geography is not right. By that logic, the geography of Telangana is also not right. I do not believe that too-big to manage logic. In this day of technological advance it is not logical to make those artificial boundaries.

I am not sure about T-Geography as I read different view points. My basic point is people have long asked for it. Their is some merit in their demands. language is not the only unifying or diving factor as was thought of on earlier occasions.both side has been disproved. Smalll State Vs. Big State is an older administrative debate. If resources are not shared evenly then people of one area would feel deprived of resources, power and opportunities. Smaller states confines resources to a homogeneous area. What was done in Hyd is of no consequence as economic opportunities will be available to everyone in Hyd even after division. Constitution guarantees that. Whe India was bifurcated, all irrigated fertile lands were in Pakistan. India did better in retrospect. Similarly Bihar case. No language issue but now it is better governed. There is no causative or empirical link in the size of states and its governability. Small size may lack necessary resources for lager projects and would have to depend on Centre for financial and other expertise. That would lead to more powerful centre in the long run. It could be , again , good or bad, depending on how we do it.So ultimately it is political and that means voice of people ( as per one definition).

That said, AP is fair for bi/trifurcation if it is done universally all over india with same set of rules and criteria. As and when that happens, we all believe Hyderabad must remain with its surrounding areas.

There is no hard and fast rule, let alone a Universal Rule. May be after people wisened up there could be talk of consolidation as well in future.

If you read peoples posts here, everyone is against center grabbing Hyderabad from both Telangana and SA people.

I think HYD as UT is a terrible idea. And it will aggravate the issue. Theonly good I can see is that it may result in wiping out of Khangrace from that area. Further as I see it AP sustained them and with AP going out of their fold , chances of NaMo would be brighter if he plays it right. Yes . It is political.

Thanks RamaY garu for bearing with my views. I want commoner to feel safe and be secure.

[ramana]

What I recall of Osmania Uty in the late 60s to early 70s is this. It was a hotbed of Commie student leaders. Then suddenly Jaipal Reddy led an agitation in late 1968 and the ABVP captured power. After that Telangana agitation started. It helped thrust the ABVP leadership into prominence: Mallikarjun, Narsimha Reddy and his cousin etc. Once the agitation was settled in early 70s, INC stalwarts helped restart the Commie student movement in OU and that led to death of George Reddy and his brother Cyril Reddy took off abroad. For sometime there was clam and periodic riots and fights on the campus between Naxalites and ABVP.
I don't know much of what happened latter.

[RamaY]

^ it continued.

Chadrareddy of ABVP was my batch mate, he did MCom, IIRC, was killed in 2000s by commies.

[vishvak]

There were no issues because no one preached hate day after day then. The divisions were done after obtaining unanimous consent from state assembly. That is not goingbto be there in case of AP. Division of AP if happens is going to be a forced thing. Done to political - short term - gain for congee mafia. Japan criminal gang is part of it and will join upa 3 if Modi does not win. Stopping INC in AP is a must now.

If this results in bloodshed who is maut ke saudaagar

Credit for peaceful formation of states should go to politicians of Bihaar Chhatteesagadha too.

[Sushupti]

Who is krishnarjun?

He is someone from AP and based on his tweets knows lot about off the record stuff.

[chaanakya]

Credit for peaceful formation of states should go to politicians of Bihaar Chhatteesagadha too.

Well , it was more to the People than to politicians. But of course NDA handled it better.

[ramana]

So already AP Politics has hit the nation twice in so many months
- NaMo visit to Hyderabad triggered the INC announcement of T state
- CBN meeting BJP has triggered their decision to file case on NaMo.

[chaanakya]

I have a feeling that it will be AP, divided or united, which will determine the course of 2014 and whether 272+ happens or Kongis get another term.

[Rony]

Thanks for that history RamaY garu

[ramana]

Pioneer:

CBN warming up to BJP

Must be the effect of the delegation meeting Modi on his Hyd visit and understanding demographics better.

The NDA inched closer to bringing in a new ally as Telugu Desam Party chief N Chandrababu Naidu did not rule out returning to the BJP-led alliance and claimed on Sunday that he would play a positive role in formation of a ‘non-Congress’ Government at the Centre.


Naidu, who met BJP chief Rajnath Singh on Saturday, said that under the Congress rule “nation is in crisis” and whenever such a situation occurred, his party has played a “positive role.”

The TDP has been out of both UPA and NDA for the last ten years and Naidu’s statement is a marked departure from his earlier position wherein he has been categorical about not being part of any BJP-led alliance.

Camping in the national Capital for last two days to seek support from every political party for an “amicable” solution to the Telangana row, Naidu said he has played a role in formation of National Front, United Front and National Democratic Alliance Governments at the Centre in the past and will again play a positive role this time to dislodge the UPA.

“Nation is in a crisis. People are frustrated. Our State is in disaster. Every time there is a crisis, I have played a positive role to defuse it. I will play a positive role even this time. I will play a role to have a non-Congress Government at the Centre,” Naidu told reporters here on question of joining the NDA.

“As an economic reformer, I initiated economic reforms (as Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh). At that time (Atal Bihari) Vajpayee was Prime Minister....Today, there is frustration. Total economy has collapsed. No roads, no employment... Whenever there was a crisis, the TDP has always played a positive role,” Naidu said, adding that his party will play positive politics at the national stage after the current crisis in Andhra Pradesh gets over.

Asked if he was not ruling out a possible handshake with the BJP, Naidu replied, “I am not saying anything now. This is question of politics and we will answer it when the time comes. I have told you that I will play a positive role when the nation is in crisis it is up to you intelligent people to understand.”

The TDP chief’s statement comes against the backdrop of recent overtures by Rajnath and BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, who are on a lookout for new allies, both pre- and post-poll.

Naidu had met Singh on Saturday to seek BJP’s support for a solution to Telangana problem. The BJP is counting on TDP’s support to take the steam out of Congress and regional outfits’ “secularism” campaign, which has gathered momentum after Narendra Modi’s rise at the national level.

Given the “restlessness” in TDP camp after YSR Congress’ good show in recent elections, even Naidu is under pressure from his party leaders to rethink his strategy.

BJP leaders have tried to convince Naidu to soften his reservation about returning to the NDA fold and not fear about a backlash from the Muslim community who are mostly settled in the proposed Telangana state where the TDP is not so strong a force.

According to the 2001 census, Muslims constitute a little over nine per cent of total population of Andhra Pradesh. Majority of Muslim population is settled in the proposed Telangana State with Hyderabad having the highest percentage of over 41 per cent.

Sources claimed, BJP leaders have proposed Naidu for a pre-poll alliance wherein the TDP will contest from all seats of Seemadhra region leaving majority of the seats in Telangana for the BJP.

Having met President Pranab Mukherjee and demanded consultation among all stakeholders for an amicable solution to Telanagan row, Naidu went hammer and tong against the Congress for treating Andhra Pradesh has a private affairs of the party.

“For political gains, the Congress has played havoc and they have created problems also,” he said and alleged that Congress and TRS were hand in glove in creating problems in Andhra Pradesh.

He also criticised Congress’ alleged move for patch up with the YSR Congress headed by Jaganmohan Reddy in Seemandhra region after the Lok Sabha polls. “Because of all these things, for the last two years in Telangana, there were agitations, people committed suicides and bandhs were organised for so many days in Telangana,” he added.

When it was pointed out that he had supported Telangana cause earlier and was taking ‘U’ turn on the issue now, he said, “I have taken ‘P’ turn - people’s turn”. The TDP chief, who met CPI leader AB Bardhan and JD(U) leader Sharad Yadav on Sunday, said he had briefed the leaders on the current situation in Andhra Pradesh arising after Telangana state creation announcement. He had also met CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat on Saturday.

[Muppalla]

So already AP Politics has hit the nation twice in so many months
- NaMo visit to Hyderabda triggered the INC announcement of T state
- CBN meeting BJP has triggered their decision to file case on NaMo.

If they really file a case against Modi, there is no way dynasty will survive. Especially if the case is related to ishrat Jahan, Shorabuddin via Vahnavati then the game is over. They are going for a soft-emergency situation.

There is more strategy to CBN joining NDA. Will write later. The only hurdle remaining is that the AP-BJP is skeptical of CBN.

[RoyG]

This is what I'm thinking Muppallaji,

Just look at how they are trying to push a communal violence bill through again. A soft emergency option would maybe by them some time. Or they could already be negotiating.

[gpati]

Gurujis, are "peaceful" activities escalating in Andhra Pradesh?

There was an incident in Hyderabad, where a sleeping migrant vendor on the pavement was shot at point blank, for no apparent reason. In another incident in Hyderabad, a newly married couple drifted away from the main road because of rain. They were attacked with blades/swords for no apparent reason also. The husband was succumbed to injuries.

In Krishna-Guntur area, there were reports of clashes between two communities during Vinayaka Chaviti. These were unheard of up until now. What it is not known is, whether the other community is "peaceful" or "love" preaching. I was reading an autobiography of an old Telugu movie producer. Apparently, 40-60 years ago, ROP women in AP wore sarees and sported Bindi . But at present, they are fully covering themselves. What has changed?

Has accidental death of TDP leader Lal Jan Basha few weeks ago has anything to with TDP getting closer to BJP? According to my friends, TDP-BJP alliance is a done deal, and Modi and CBN will share venue on October 2nd.

[Pratyush]

This is what I'm thinking Muppallaji,

Just look at how they are trying to push a communal violence bill through again. A soft emergency option would maybe by them some time. Or they could already be negotiating.

UPA, has enough numbers to push the Communal Violence bill. Especially after the Muzzafnagar riots.

[RamaY]

. In another incident in Hyderabad, a newly married couple drifted away from the main road because of rain. They were attacked with blades/swords for no apparent reason also. The husband was succumbed to injuries.

This proved out to be the wife killing husband with the help of her another husband/boyfriend/lover.

Kindly do not spread rumors.

[RamaY]

Looks like the realignment of power centers in AP will follow the Mahabharata example. In those days the older generation was physically removed for the king was king until either he died or coronation the next generation. The current process is democratic-coronation where people get to coronate the king every 5 years.

The older generation will remain with respectful parties, but retire from politics. The next generation will align with new parties.

This is an acceptable transition to Dharmic forces, IMHO. I am a firm believer of the idiom "Yatha Raja, Tatha Praja". As long as the Bharat Samrat is Dharmic, these parliamentarians will behave dharmic.

For proof, read this post: http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 8#p1515948

[shyamoo]

Rony garu,

Nizam got Rs 50,000 per year from Seemandhra as rent from 1768 to 1823. Rs 50,000 in those days is equivalent to Rs 775 crores in today's money at 5% annual interest (Nizam would charge much higher interest rate - up to 24%, but hey Seemandhra people are dhimmis). So between 1768 and 1823, Nizam got Rs 42000 crores worth of rent from Seemandhra. On top of this money, Nizam gave up Seemandhra to British for he couldnt pay his dues for renting British mercenary army. So one can deduce that Seemandhra directly/indirectly financed the safety of Telangana region between 1768-1823.

1) How did you come up with 50,000 == 775 crores in today's money?
2) Nizam got this money from the British as annuity. That doesn't necessarily mean that the money came from Seemandhra region. British got revenues from various other regions and not just the 'Northern Circars'.
3) So, how did this actually finance the safety of the Telangana region?

So if one says Hyderabad is for Telangana onlee, one can only laugh at his (a) lack of knowledge (b) idiocy and most importantly (c) Pakiness.

So, pray tell, how did you arrive at this conclusion.

[RamaY]

vnmshyam garu,

1) How did you come up with 50,000 == 775 crores in today's money?
Go to excel and type this in a cell =FV(5%,(2013-1768),0,50000,0)
It tells you how much a Rs 50,000 invested in 1768 at 5% annual interest rate is worth today.

2) Nizam got this money from the British as annuity. That doesn't necessarily mean that the money came from Seemandhra region. British got revenues from various other regions and not just the 'Northern Circars'.
You think British were in India for charity activities .
Indian society and making of the British empire - Please read pages 55-58 to understand how profitable seemandhra region was in 18th century itself.

3) So, how did this actually finance the safety of the Telangana region?
First of all Nizam engaged French and later British to protect his kingdom (Till 1823 there was no Telangana, but Nizam state which included entire Andhra Pradesh, some districts from current Karnataka and Maharashtra) from Maratha empire. In 1768 he gave away circars (that is Seemandhra) to British for their mercenary services PLUS an annual package of Rs 50,000. But the bill for mercenary services became so large, mainly because Nizam couldn't protect whatever left with him (that is Telangana) on his own and taxes from Telangana, he had to give up control of Seemandhra to British completely in 1823.

So, pray tell, how did you arrive at this conclusion.
For the ignorance and lack of logic shown as explained above. The pakiness part is about your lack-of-interest to read the sources presented and make a logical argument, instead of repeating the same questions even after 10 years.

[Sushupti]

It’s do or die for Chandrababu Naidu

Ground Reality

BJP’s support to TDP in Parliament may seem curious, given that it, in fact, queered the pitch for a separate Telangana. What was its support to TDP based on? BJP said in Parliament that it was opposed to the manner in which the two states were being created.

So, the understanding seems to be that BJP’s support base in Telangana will combine with TDP’s support in coastal Andhra to pose a challenge to YSRC and Congress.

The TDP stands to lose its small percentage of Muslim supporters by going along with the BJP. However, TDP leaders reckon that the gains that it makes in Telangana will outweigh this. The TDP’s good performance in Telangana in the recent Panchayat elections gives rise to this belief.

However, these calculations can come unstuck if the TRS, Congress and MIM share the spoils in Telangana, leaving the BJP high and dry.

In Seemandhra, the YSR Congress has stolen the lead. The release of Jagan should buoy up the cadres. The Congress may do well in Telangana but is in a shambles elsewhere. It may see a split or there may be an exodus to YSRC. Even the Muslims in the region could go with the YSRC, as Rajasekhara Reddy won their hearts and earned their goodwill with the promise of four per cent reservation.

The TDP hopes to keep together the influential agriculture and business communities, while benefiting from a transfer of BJP votes in coastal Andhra. In the heyday of their alliance, the BJP won a few MP seats and filmstar Krishnamraju also became a junior minister for defence.

Thanks to NTR, the TDP swept the state on the ‘Telugu pride’ and anti-Congress card three decades ago. The baton has now passed on to more recent actors, creating an existential crisis for Naidu.


http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opi ... 168029.ece

[RamaY]

For TDP to make some gains, CBN need to project new party leadership even if it is from the family.

[RamaY]

By our own Gpati

I have written the following writeup based on Brihaspati ji's 90 year cyclic model in regards to Andhra Pradesh politics.

1920s have set a precedent for Left-wing based political mobilizations in Andhra Pradesh for next 90 years (1920-2010). 2010s will a set a precedent for Hindutva based political mobilizations in Andhra Pradesh for next 90 years (2010-2100). Much of the present day political turmoil in Andhra Pradesh can be attributed to the end of Left –wing based political mobilizations.

1900-1920: Indian National Congress (INC) rose to prominence in Telugu speaking areas of Madras state.

1920 – 1930 (Generation 1 radicals): Left-wing radicals left INC and founded Communist Party of India in Telugu speaking areas of Madras state (and rest of India). In reality, Left-wing radicals were forced to leave INC as it was being compromised under Bapuji.

1940s: Left-wing radicals organized various peasant rebellions in Nizam Telangana as well as rest of Andhra against feudal elite (Sayudha Telangana Raithanga Poratam, Challapalli Raitanga Poratam, Srikakula/Varli Raithanga Poratam etc.).

1947: Feudal and mercantile elite who profited from British Raj rule in India joined INC immediately after independence. Thus, INC was further compromised and essentially it transformed into a Brown East India Company. Nehru in close collaboration with Nizam of Hyderabad, crushed Left-wing radicals and their peasant rebellions in Andhra Pradesh with an iron fist, through Malabar Police in coastal areas and Razakars in Telangana areas.

1948: Operation Polo against Nizam of Hyderabad and merger of Hyderabad state with Indian Union.

1952: Former Soviet Union ordered Left-wing radicals (Communists) to give up their armed rebellion and to join mainstream politics in Andhra Pradesh. Many of them eventually joined Telugu Movie industry which ushered the so called golden era (1950-1970) of Telugu movie industry.

1953: Formation of Andhra State with capital in Kurnool.

1956: Merger of Telangana and Andhra State and the formation of Andhra Pradesh with capital in Hyderabad.

1960’s (Generation 2 radicals): Rise of Naxalites in Andhra Pradesh who fought for lower fringes of society against feudal and mercantile elite.

1967-1975: Jai Telagana and Jai Andhra movements were engineered by INC to distract youth away from Naxalite movement. This coupled with INC's violent pressure tactics caused the failure of Naxal movement.

1980 – 2000 (Generation 3 radicals): Rise of Telugu Desam Party (TDP), a left leaning political party, in Andhra Pradesh.

2001: Second Telangana Agitation under Telangana Rastra Samiti (TRS) was engineered by INC to wean away the constituency, which votes for TDP in Telangana areas, from TDP.

2010s (Generation 4 radicals): Generation 4 radicals will take refuge in Hindutava based political mobilizations having their predecessors failed with Communism based Left-wing political mobilizations. This will also mark the end of caste-based politics in Andhra Pradesh.

[kmkraoind]

Kiran Reddy takes on Congress, says state bigger than party - Firstpost

“State is more important than any party calculations. Concerns of people are more important. Party functions as per the will of the people. We have to answer the people. Each party has got its own views but here the issue is much bigger than the party. The concerns of the people of the state are much bigger than the party or party’s view,” he said.

The chief minister said the state’s division would create a lot of problems. There would be problems of not only sharing of river waters but also of education and medical facilities which are Hyderabad-centric, and the interests of government employees.

“I was born in, studied and grew up in Hyderabad. After 53 years you say you don’t belong here. This is the feeling of lakhs of people. Eighty percent of the people who stay here were born after formation of the state. You cannot say that Hyderabad is ours. Hyderabad belongs to whole of Andhra Pradesh for a very long time,” he said.

The chief minister called for debate on Hyderabad. “We will have to see constitutional provisions. There is nothing called joint capital. There are difficulties in having joint capital. If it should be made union territory, then what kind of union territory? All these are under consideration and consideration,” he added.

My hunch is that Congress will be wiped out in both sides. The media honchos are artificially creating a wave for Jagan. His and his party's mettle proved in local body elections. Except a few Jalayagnam and PWD contractors, most are YSRC leaders are not happy with "The Family." At best, Congress and YSRC can win 5-6 in whole of AP. People are understanding the game of INC+YSRC.

[Lilo]

Best scenario possible is if KKR turns against xongi high command and exposes Jagan gang to be total a B-team for the termite queen at Delhi -

xongis want Jagan to mop up MP seats in seemandhra , so he will get a free rein in criticizing the "sonia parivar" like never seen before (however he will limit the criticism within the bounds of AP division centric and corruption centric ... will never go into the traitor domain (wrt foreign policy , overseas black money hoards controlled by Massa etc) as he himself is one).

Expect some fancy padayatra to start now in seemandhra - funded by huge financial assets hitherto freezed by caged parrot et al.

If all goes according to xongi plan jagan's relationship with Delhi xongi's will be overtly as all bridges burnt no turning back etc - but covertly will be acting as a xongi chamcha railed against the incumbent govt (NaMo or some weak turd front) and voting strategically to prevent key reforms from occurring or for nonconfidence motions moved from time to time to topple and wobble the incumbent govt.

In the mean time, he will never even have a postpoll alliance unless and until parivar completely recedes into background puppeteering using some acceptable front like Saint,Speaker etc.

[Muppalla]

Based on what's going on in AP, I see Modi will be PM this time.

[RamaY]

Based on what's going on in AP, I see Modi will be PM this time.

I want 272+ for Modi. Bliss to give the statewide split

[Muppalla]

Based on what's going on in AP, I see Modi will be PM this time.

I want 272+ for Modi. Bliss to give the statewide split

To see if he gets 272 depends on two states. UP and Bihar. The alignments are not complete there. Middle India is geared up already. In AP the battle lines are clear. In Maha, my hunch is that SS+MNS+BJP. In Haryana it is INC Vs BJP+. I am sure Marandi will lead BJP to victory in Jharkhand.

If BJP can turn every state (except UP and Bihar) into one-on-one contest, it will get 272. So the really battleground states for BJP are UP and Bihar.

The battleground states for INC are Maha and AP.

[Atri]

Maha, they will get 30 seats saar. Out of 48. SS estimate.

[member_23658]

Atriji; they = Cong or BJP ?