Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2013 17:58

4% vote share advantage > Almost repeat of the last election > Much tighter than thought

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2013 18:01

BJP (42%) > 45-55 (45 is the half way mark)

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 04 Dec 2013 18:08

Voting has been extended in some booths till 8 pm. Tweet guys!

Tweeted this earlier!

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 04 Dec 2013 18:11

Media will try to milk Delhi for their TRP rating, hence we have to factor that into account and only solid scholars' version needs to be given weight. AAP is the new kid on the block, so there will be more noise. A true picture will only emerge later.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 04 Dec 2013 18:12

pankajs wrote:banned from publishing for the period not from collection

didn't quite get that.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 04 Dec 2013 18:15

Rahul M wrote:
pankajs wrote:banned from publishing for the period not from collection
didn't quite get that.

They were free to collect information & survey but they could not publish the results before the last round of voting was over.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 04 Dec 2013 18:15

Rahul M wrote:
pankajs wrote:banned from publishing for the period not from collection
didn't quite get that.

I think he means that exit poll data can be collected, just not published.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2013 18:20

They are allowed to collect the exit poll data but they cannot publish the data till all bunched-up elections are completed. Now that polling has been completed in all states they are free to publish and discuss the data.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 04 Dec 2013 18:25

Aajtak throwing much pleasing numbers :
Delhi:
BJP 41
Con 20
AAP 06

CG : BJP 53; CON 30

vish_mulay · Post by **vish_mulay** » 04 Dec 2013 18:26

India TV Delhi Projection
BJP 41
Con 20
AAp 6
Oth 4

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 04 Dec 2013 18:28

So it is going to be 4-0, 3-1 or 2-2. A 2-2 would be seen as a major blow to Modi. 3-1 with Delhi hung, will is like giving oxygen to AAP.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2013 18:28

Times Now > Mood in congress quite glum > Source in SD's camp > The large number is making SD nervous > SD's seat too in doubt

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 04 Dec 2013 18:29

Remember "Others" can be "Shiromani Akali Dal" which is contesting with BJP together in an alliance.

member_23658 · Post by **member_23658** » 04 Dec 2013 18:31

NDTV
Rajastan BJP 130, congress 48
MP BJP 144 Cong 77
Delhi BJP 34 COng 20 AAP 13
CG BJP 50 Cong 37 ...

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2013 18:31

EC > Youths have broken all stereotypes and come out to vote in large number

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2013 18:41

Times Now > For Rajasthan (Avg. of 2 survey)
BJP 139
CON 44

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 04 Dec 2013 18:42

Anything which is said by MSM as close is ripe for EVM magic. So expect that in CG and DL. If they do that in MP and Raj everyone will know it so there it won't be so blatant as it will be in CG and DL.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 04 Dec 2013 18:44

SwamyG wrote:So it is going to be 4-0, 3-1 or 2-2. A 2-2 would be seen as a major blow to Modi. 3-1 with Delhi hung, will is like giving oxygen to AAP.

Anything below 4-0 is going to be spun as a 'major blow to Modi'. Kejri himself winning his seat will be an even worse outcome than AAP managing double digits, IMHO.

There's no AAP face except for him... and he can be assured of getting much media hype in the other 5 metros as LS 2014 approaches...

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2013 18:51

Times Now > Rajasthan swings to BJP
BJP (42%) +8%
INS (34%) -3%

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 04 Dec 2013 18:54

^If +8% is not a wave then I dunno what is...

Conventional logic (by the likes of modi baiters like SA aiyer) has it that NM needs something like a +6% swing towards BJP to have any realistic chance of entering PMO. If NM _ negative RG wave accounts for 6% of the 8% swing then... anything's possible...

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2013 18:58

Rajasthan's message > No work for 4 years and lots of freebies do not win election

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 04 Dec 2013 18:59

FWIW, Hindi channels are always better indicators of reality than ELM nonsense. In Hindi heartland. I am sure it is true for all Indian language media in the areas of strength.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 04 Dec 2013 19:01

When will the first results start trickling out? NDTV citing exit polls says BJP will go 4-0.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2013 19:02

CNN IBN > MP
BJP 41% (+3.5%) 136-146
INC 35% (+2.5%) 67-77

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 04 Dec 2013 19:03

^^ Regional channels such as Etv are even more reliable. Even on the day of counting they are the most updated and most accurate. I would listen to Etv over any other channel.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 04 Dec 2013 19:09

Whatever the media says, these elections will rejuvenate the BJP cadres. There will be some lessons learned to fine tune tactics. Even without knowing the results, I believe these elections are good for BJP sentiment, and validation of Modi as the PM.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2013 19:10

Times Now: Chattisgarh > Avg. of 2 survey
BJP: 47 (I thought the earlier the number was 43. May be my mistake)
INC: 40

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 04 Dec 2013 19:28

SwamyG wrote:Whatever the media says, these elections will rejuvenate the BJP cadres. There will be some lessons learned to fine tune tactics. Even without knowing the results, I believe these elections are good for BJP sentiment, and validation of Modi as the PM.

+100 SwamyG ji, very important for BJP cadre to view elections as permanent feature of raajniti and be on toes, the way people treat career ie not one time but continues feature. This part needs to evolve well.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 04 Dec 2013 19:31

There is @FCBtheChamps who is predicting a Congress rout in Mizoram as well. 0-5 for Congress would be sehr seharilla bitter!

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 04 Dec 2013 19:45

It seems as per several exit polls BJP is past half-way mark in Chatthisgarh, Rajasthan, Delhi and MP... awesome numbers people. For those who support the BJP. The people have indeed spoken, and more importantly, it looks like a clear movement of people in a firm direction.

Relish, and cherish this reality. We are one of the few countries in the world where people can actually peacefully change governments just by pressing a button, and getting dab of indelible ink on their nails. Jai Hind.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 04 Dec 2013 19:57

I was for sometime worried about C garh. Happy if exit polls are true. Delhi will give clear decision. We can see fodstar was losing votes and seats as time progresses. So he was continuously on decline and such people fall heavily on election day.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2013 20:25

India Today-ORG post-poll survey gives BJP 4-0 victory over Congress

rajithn · Post by **rajithn** » 04 Dec 2013 20:25

While most of the others exit poll numbers are similar, there is one called "Chanakya" that is predicting a win for AAP in Delhi. Why is that?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 04 Dec 2013 20:26

Narayana Rao wrote:I was for sometime worried about C garh. Happy if exit polls are true. Delhi will give clear decision. We can see fodstar was losing votes and seats as time progresses. So he was continuously on decline and such people fall heavily on election day.

There is always margin of error. In India it is 4%. Things can change but all the polls are putting at 4-0 and also the gaps are very big except for Delhi.

M Joshi · Post by **M Joshi** » 04 Dec 2013 20:27

A noob question here from someone who is following assembly elections so closely for the first time.
Are Exit polls reliable? Have they predicted the truth in the past elections?

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 04 Dec 2013 20:31

Delhi still not sure. Chanakya predicting AAP win.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 04 Dec 2013 20:54

Supratik wrote:Delhi still not sure. Chanakya predicting AAP win.

The exit polls has a margin of error as high as 6%. That is why our polls go awry at times.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 04 Dec 2013 20:55

who are they ??? they dont even have a website

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 04 Dec 2013 21:00

When will the actual results in the five states be declared ?

Edit: Thanks M Joshi ji

M Joshi · Post by **M Joshi** » 04 Dec 2013 21:03

8th Dec.