RajeshA wrote:
...Perhaps it is best if BJP Alliance is BJP, MDMK, PMK, KJK, IJK and some other small parties. It would mean a multi-cornered contest in TN
AIADMK+Left vs DMK+ vs Congress vs DMDK vs BJP+.
BJP+ can only hope to increase their vote share and perhaps win 5-6 seats.
A committed cadre is a problem but the cadre of MDMK/PMK/KJK/IJK is transferable and can be enthused to ensure BJP+ voter turnout. Further, if the expectations are managed properly one can argue that in national elections
1. BJP is surely going to win. Voting for CongIs is a vote wasted (and again it is vote for corruption)
2. Only committed DMK supporters will vote for DMK., however with Stalin/Azhagiri fall out and Kanimozhi in hospital - they are at best regional parties with no major role to play at center. So they can sit this one out.
3. Commited voters of AIADMK/LEFT can sit out in national elections.
Same points 2&3 apply for DMDK.
To get a better deal for TN, say 24x7 electricity - they can vote BJP in power at center.
The point is that even if a DMK/AIADMK/DMDK votes sit out and anti-Congress votes can be moped up by BJP with some help from localized cadre, this will be a coup for BJP in TN and that will surely give them 2-5 seats. In TN, BJP has to beat the tally of Congress+TMC and AIADMK has to wipe out DMK+. This is plausible if some consolidation in favour of BJP+ occurs in seats where AIADMK is weak and in seats where AIADMK is strong, anti-DMK/anti-Congress has to be mopped up by AIADMK.
It is not only necessary to beat the enemy, but let your weak frenemies weaken them further.