Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 12 May 2014 20:04

fanne wrote:The only reason to fudge an exit poll would be for EVM MAGIC!!

Egjactly.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 12 May 2014 20:04

Dilbu wrote:What is there to sell out in an exit poll? It will not affect the results or further voting. Also it is only channel's reputation which is going to be on the line. For projecting a rosy image for 3 days will someone pay to get exit polls cooked?

Exactly. I think these guys are just following through and doing what they are already paid to do. They can't influence the results now.

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 12 May 2014 20:05

Oh well, NM has ended up polarizing Exit Polls as well. Arnab circus at 249, Today's Chanakya at 340!

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 12 May 2014 20:05

hanumadu wrote:Chanakya seems to be the one giving the most seats to BJP.

No seemandhra results as yet.

Chanakya was also the *most* accurate in figuring out AAp's delhi debut's numbers in both share and seats terms.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 12 May 2014 20:06

Chanakya - Bihar

Party Vote 2014(Forecast) Seat 2014(Forecast)
BJP+ 38% ± 3% 31 ± 4 (Plus / Minus 4)
RJD + Congress 29% ± 3% 9 ± 2 (Plus / Minus 2)
JDU 19% ± 3% 0 ± 2 (Plus / Minus 2)
AAP 4% ± 2% -
Others 10% ± 3% -

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 12 May 2014 20:06

wth, Chankaya is giving BJP 70 seats in UP

They are giving BJP alone 291 +/- 14 seats. I dont want to say anything, but most exit polls got the wind right in 2009 (they said UPA will do better than NDA, csds said NDA 145-160 and UPA 205). But chanakya alone got the intensity also right and said cong alone will get 205 and UPA will get 250.

So does this mean, while all exit polls predict NDA victory, has chanakya got the intensity right, will BJP make it one its own. We will know on 16th

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 12 May 2014 20:06

Make up your own poll with NDA = (249+340)/2 = 294.

SagarAg · Post by **SagarAg** » 12 May 2014 20:08

Chanakya

Also point to be noted, it was the closest to the actual result during Assembly Elections 2013.

SandeepA · Post by **SandeepA** » 12 May 2014 20:09

Chanakya = Exit poll
TimesNow = Exit poll +_ EVM magic

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 12 May 2014 20:09

What all of these polls show is that no one has done a proper analysis. TV news is all about who can scream the loudest.

Watch these clowns change numbers in the next few days based on TRPs.

member_23679 · Post by **member_23679** » 12 May 2014 20:10

SagarAg wrote:Chanakya

If this does pan out, AS will go down in history as a real Chanakya.

AjayKK · Post by **AjayKK** » 12 May 2014 20:10

Fight for turd place between Amma and Mamta Begum.

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 12 May 2014 20:10

http://www.todayschanakya.com/election_ ... erage.html
He usually gets it right

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 12 May 2014 20:11

India TV saying that up untill 5pm, BJP leading with 44% in Varanasi, Cong 2nd, AAP 3rd. Long lines were at Qs still.

rvishwak · Post by **rvishwak** » 12 May 2014 20:12

CSDS (IBN) total seats out yet?

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 12 May 2014 20:12

SandeepA wrote:Chanakya = Exit poll
TimesNow = Exit poll +_ EVM magic

No, timesnow is exit poll + arnab's nonsense. No evm magic can give BJP 10 in RJ and Cong 14. No way especially when BJP is in govt there. If evm's can be rigged, i doubt rigging will happen in cong favor in a bjp rules state. If evm's can be hacked remotely from CIA HQ, then why are we even discussing the elections.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 12 May 2014 20:13

NDA projections

TimesNow: 249
Chanakya: 340
AajTak: 272-283
IndiaTV/Cvoter: 289
5forty3.in: 300+ (his last Phase projections not out yet, but a good guess)

Who else ?

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 12 May 2014 20:13

i think chanakya is not showing TG and Andhra becos of EC directive. Other channels have violated the rules.

rvishwak · Post by **rvishwak** » 12 May 2014 20:15

Dilbu wrote:
fanne wrote:The only reason to fudge an exit poll would be for EVM MAGIC!!
Egjactly.

but why reduce RJD to 0 in Bihar?

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 12 May 2014 20:17

So even sum of all minimums per state should still be 200 plus for BJP. That is 20 seats more than opinion polls

Patni · Post by **Patni** » 12 May 2014 20:17

mm IMHO the exit poll numbers by todayschanakya looks credible even if a bit too fantastic. Looked at vote share % shown and they seem to really up to mark in that!! One can debate and have to do detail seat by seat analysis to try and figure out seat from that. IMHO BJP alone is going to be close to 265 and NDA at 305.

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 12 May 2014 20:18

CWC member: BJP is at 270 according to Congress's own estimate.

Mihaylo · Post by **Mihaylo** » 12 May 2014 20:20

SandeepA wrote:
Timesnow will not report such numbers unless they are in on some magic in Rajastan etc. They will not risk credibility by reporting this now only to be proven wrong in a few days.
Dhoti shivering onleee..

I agree. Something fishy is going on...

-M

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 12 May 2014 20:20

I will go with Times Now just to be on the safe side. But one thing is for sure, it will be a NDA administration and a stable one to delivery good governance. Some how paid media has made it, and some of us here have fallen into the trap, that < 300 is a loss for NAMO and he should step aside for AJ to take over. Come on. Without NAMO, BJP would have been around 100 and NAMO goes well past AVB's performance. So chill and open the bottle.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 12 May 2014 20:22

Mihaylo wrote:
SandeepA wrote:
Timesnow will not report such numbers unless they are in on some magic in Rajastan etc. They will not risk credibility by reporting this now only to be proven wrong in a few days.
Dhoti shivering onleee..

I agree. Something fishy is going on...

-M

C'mon, do you want me to give you a list of blunders by timesnow/c-voter in the past. The list is endless.

In fact people can ask the other way round, how come only timesnow and no other channel has exclusive info on evm's in RJ.

Mihaylo · Post by **Mihaylo** » 12 May 2014 20:22

KLP Dubey wrote:NDA projections

TimesNow: 249
Chanakya: 340
AajTak: 272-283
IndiaTV/Cvoter: 289
5forty3.in: 300+ (his last Phase projections not out yet, but a good guess)

Who else ?

Average for NDA is around 290

-M

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 12 May 2014 20:22

^^^ Its not a question of being conservative, TimesNow numbers are just weird

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 12 May 2014 20:23

ABP Nielsen has almost finished its projections. So far NDA = 281 out of 529.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 12 May 2014 20:24

Timesnow is giving two tables for raj.one has NDA at 22.

also for MP he shows inc at high end of his range, BJP at low end.
must be doing the same silently in other states also.

I mxpecting 270 fr BJP and 300 for NDA.

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 12 May 2014 20:25

Remember one thing, Times Now has changed its market research company this time - earlier it was CVoter, now it is something else. It was CVoter's accurate work whose credit was claimed by Doorknob Goswami to make himself look like a herrow.

CVoter is now being used by IndiaTV, hence if we go by the past performance of this MR company, BJP will get 289.

Hope BJP gets enough seats so that it does not have to look at overambitious regional satraps like JJ, Mamata, and others of their ilk.

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 12 May 2014 20:25

Arun jaitley is losing in Amritsar as per op polls

Nitesh · Post by **Nitesh** » 12 May 2014 20:26

Chqlo sure ho gaya yaar
Ab ki baar modi sarkaar

but: NaMo will lose only

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 12 May 2014 20:26

4 out of 5 agencies giving outright majority to Namo is great.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 12 May 2014 20:27

I think TimesNow goofed up big time and now are furiously revising their number after looking at the list put out by others

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 12 May 2014 20:28

I will also caution against using timesnow numbers on Assam, impossible to imagine BJP getting 8 of the 14. Surely cong will do much better.

Anindya · Post by **Anindya** » 12 May 2014 20:28

I would take thee 290 number - reduce it by 20% for EVM magic, voter list fraud etc - and then use that as a base. It'll come pretty close to the numbers that muraliravi had, I think.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 12 May 2014 20:29

Latest NDA projections

TimesNow: 249
Chanakya: 340
AajTak: 272-283
IndiaTV/Cvoter: 289
5forty3.in: 300+ (his last Phase projections not out yet, but a good guess)
ABP Nielsen: 281

Who else ?

Patni · Post by **Patni** » 12 May 2014 20:30

http://www.todayschanakya.com/images/lo ... s_2014.pdf

Link to 12 page PDF file of chanakya exit poll.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 12 May 2014 20:32

Times Now's wheel of seat numbers. All bonkers.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 12 May 2014 20:32

CSDS

NDA 270-282
BJP 230-242

UPA 92-102
Cong 72-82