Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Locked
Dilbu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8272
Joined: 07 Nov 2007 22:53
Location: Deep in the badlands of BRFATA

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by Dilbu »

fanne wrote:The only reason to fudge an exit poll would be for EVM MAGIC!!
Egjactly.
KLP Dubey
BRFite
Posts: 1310
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by KLP Dubey »

Dilbu wrote:What is there to sell out in an exit poll? It will not affect the results or further voting. Also it is only channel's reputation which is going to be on the line. For projecting a rosy image for 3 days will someone pay to get exit polls cooked?
Exactly. I think these guys are just following through and doing what they are already paid to do. They can't influence the results now.
Anantha
BRFite
Posts: 1351
Joined: 25 Mar 2002 12:31
Location: US

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by Anantha »

Oh well, NM has ended up polarizing Exit Polls as well. Arnab circus at 249, Today's Chanakya at 340!
Hari Seldon
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9373
Joined: 27 Jul 2009 12:47
Location: University of Trantor

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by Hari Seldon »

hanumadu wrote:Chanakya seems to be the one giving the most seats to BJP.
No seemandhra results as yet.

Chanakya was also the *most* accurate in figuring out AAp's delhi debut's numbers in both share and seats terms.
hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5168
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by hanumadu »

Chanakya - Bihar

Party Vote 2014(Forecast) Seat 2014(Forecast)
BJP+ 38% ± 3% 31 ± 4 (Plus / Minus 4)
RJD + Congress 29% ± 3% 9 ± 2 (Plus / Minus 2)
JDU 19% ± 3% 0 ± 2 (Plus / Minus 2)
AAP 4% ± 2% -
Others 10% ± 3% -
muraliravi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2819
Joined: 07 May 2009 16:49

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by muraliravi »

wth, Chankaya is giving BJP 70 seats in UP

They are giving BJP alone 291 +/- 14 seats. I dont want to say anything, but most exit polls got the wind right in 2009 (they said UPA will do better than NDA, csds said NDA 145-160 and UPA 205). But chanakya alone got the intensity also right and said cong alone will get 205 and UPA will get 250.

So does this mean, while all exit polls predict NDA victory, has chanakya got the intensity right, will BJP make it one its own. We will know on 16th
Last edited by muraliravi on 12 May 2014 20:09, edited 1 time in total.
Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10033
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by Mort Walker »

Make up your own poll with NDA = (249+340)/2 = 294.
SagarAg
BRFite
Posts: 1163
Joined: 12 May 2011 15:51

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by SagarAg »

Chanakya :shock: :eek: 8) :twisted:
Image

Also point to be noted, it was the closest to the actual result during Assembly Elections 2013. :mrgreen:
Last edited by SagarAg on 12 May 2014 20:10, edited 1 time in total.
SandeepA
BRFite
Posts: 720
Joined: 22 Oct 2000 11:31

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by SandeepA »

Chanakya = Exit poll
TimesNow = Exit poll +_ EVM magic
Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10033
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by Mort Walker »

What all of these polls show is that no one has done a proper analysis. TV news is all about who can scream the loudest.

Watch these clowns change numbers in the next few days based on TRPs.
member_23679
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 13
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by member_23679 »

SagarAg wrote:Chanakya :shock: :eek: 8) :twisted:
Image

If this does pan out, AS will go down in history as a real Chanakya.
AjayKK
BRFite
Posts: 1520
Joined: 10 Jan 2008 10:27

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by AjayKK »

Fight for turd place between Amma and Mamta Begum.
Anantha
BRFite
Posts: 1351
Joined: 25 Mar 2002 12:31
Location: US

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by Anantha »

Victor
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2628
Joined: 24 Apr 2001 11:31

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by Victor »

India TV saying that up untill 5pm, BJP leading with 44% in Varanasi, Cong 2nd, AAP 3rd. Long lines were at Qs still.
rvishwak
BRFite
Posts: 384
Joined: 07 Jul 2010 14:03

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by rvishwak »

CSDS (IBN) total seats out yet?
muraliravi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2819
Joined: 07 May 2009 16:49

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by muraliravi »

SandeepA wrote:Chanakya = Exit poll
TimesNow = Exit poll +_ EVM magic
No, timesnow is exit poll + arnab's nonsense. No evm magic can give BJP 10 in RJ and Cong 14. No way especially when BJP is in govt there. If evm's can be rigged, i doubt rigging will happen in cong favor in a bjp rules state. If evm's can be hacked remotely from CIA HQ, then why are we even discussing the elections.
KLP Dubey
BRFite
Posts: 1310
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by KLP Dubey »

NDA projections

TimesNow: 249
Chanakya: 340
AajTak: 272-283
IndiaTV/Cvoter: 289
5forty3.in: 300+ (his last Phase projections not out yet, but a good guess)

Who else ?
muraliravi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2819
Joined: 07 May 2009 16:49

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by muraliravi »

i think chanakya is not showing TG and Andhra becos of EC directive. Other channels have violated the rules.
rvishwak
BRFite
Posts: 384
Joined: 07 Jul 2010 14:03

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by rvishwak »

Dilbu wrote:
fanne wrote:The only reason to fudge an exit poll would be for EVM MAGIC!!
Egjactly.

but why reduce RJD to 0 in Bihar?
Comer
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3574
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by Comer »

So even sum of all minimums per state should still be 200 plus for BJP. That is 20 seats more than opinion polls
Patni
BRFite
Posts: 886
Joined: 10 Jun 2008 10:32
Location: Researching sub-humans to our west!

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by Patni »

mm IMHO the exit poll numbers by todayschanakya looks credible even if a bit too fantastic. Looked at vote share % shown and they seem to really up to mark in that!! One can debate and have to do detail seat by seat analysis to try and figure out seat from that. IMHO BJP alone is going to be close to 265 and NDA at 305.
anmol
BRFite
Posts: 1922
Joined: 05 May 2009 17:39

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by anmol »

CWC member: BJP is at 270 according to Congress's own estimate.
Mihaylo
BRFite
Posts: 762
Joined: 09 Nov 2007 21:10

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by Mihaylo »

SandeepA wrote:
Timesnow will not report such numbers unless they are in on some magic in Rajastan etc. They will not risk credibility by reporting this now only to be proven wrong in a few days.
Dhoti shivering onleee..

I agree. Something fishy is going on...

-M
subhamoy.das
BRFite
Posts: 1027
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by subhamoy.das »

I will go with Times Now just to be on the safe side. But one thing is for sure, it will be a NDA administration and a stable one to delivery good governance. Some how paid media has made it, and some of us here have fallen into the trap, that < 300 is a loss for NAMO and he should step aside for AJ to take over. Come on. Without NAMO, BJP would have been around 100 and NAMO goes well past AVB's performance. So chill and open the bottle.
muraliravi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2819
Joined: 07 May 2009 16:49

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by muraliravi »

Mihaylo wrote:
SandeepA wrote:
Timesnow will not report such numbers unless they are in on some magic in Rajastan etc. They will not risk credibility by reporting this now only to be proven wrong in a few days.
Dhoti shivering onleee..

I agree. Something fishy is going on...

-M
C'mon, do you want me to give you a list of blunders by timesnow/c-voter in the past. The list is endless.

In fact people can ask the other way round, how come only timesnow and no other channel has exclusive info on evm's in RJ.
Last edited by muraliravi on 12 May 2014 20:23, edited 1 time in total.
Mihaylo
BRFite
Posts: 762
Joined: 09 Nov 2007 21:10

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by Mihaylo »

KLP Dubey wrote:NDA projections

TimesNow: 249
Chanakya: 340
AajTak: 272-283
IndiaTV/Cvoter: 289
5forty3.in: 300+ (his last Phase projections not out yet, but a good guess)

Who else ?

Average for NDA is around 290

-M
Sanku
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12526
Joined: 23 Aug 2007 15:57
Location: Naaahhhh

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by Sanku »

^^^ Its not a question of being conservative, TimesNow numbers are just weird
KLP Dubey
BRFite
Posts: 1310
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by KLP Dubey »

ABP Nielsen has almost finished its projections. So far NDA = 281 out of 529.
Last edited by KLP Dubey on 12 May 2014 20:27, edited 1 time in total.
Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by Singha »

Timesnow is giving two tables for raj.one has NDA at 22.

also for MP he shows inc at high end of his range, BJP at low end.
must be doing the same silently in other states also.

I mxpecting 270 fr BJP and 300 for NDA.
abhischekcc
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4277
Joined: 12 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: If I can’t move the gods, I’ll stir up hell
Contact:

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by abhischekcc »

Remember one thing, Times Now has changed its market research company this time - earlier it was CVoter, now it is something else. It was CVoter's accurate work whose credit was claimed by Doorknob Goswami to make himself look like a herrow.

CVoter is now being used by IndiaTV, hence if we go by the past performance of this MR company, BJP will get 289.

Hope BJP gets enough seats so that it does not have to look at overambitious regional satraps like JJ, Mamata, and others of their ilk.
Anantha
BRFite
Posts: 1351
Joined: 25 Mar 2002 12:31
Location: US

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by Anantha »

Arun jaitley is losing in Amritsar as per op polls
Nitesh
BRFite
Posts: 903
Joined: 23 Mar 2008 22:22
Location: Bangalore
Contact:

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by Nitesh »

Chqlo sure ho gaya yaar
Ab ki baar modi sarkaar

but: NaMo will lose only
abhischekcc
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4277
Joined: 12 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: If I can’t move the gods, I’ll stir up hell
Contact:

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by abhischekcc »

4 out of 5 agencies giving outright majority to Namo is great.
SRoy
BRFite
Posts: 1938
Joined: 15 Jul 2005 06:45
Location: Kolkata
Contact:

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by SRoy »

I think TimesNow goofed up big time and now are furiously revising their number after looking at the list put out by others
muraliravi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2819
Joined: 07 May 2009 16:49

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by muraliravi »

I will also caution against using timesnow numbers on Assam, impossible to imagine BJP getting 8 of the 14. Surely cong will do much better.
Anindya
BRFite
Posts: 1539
Joined: 02 Feb 2003 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by Anindya »

I would take thee 290 number - reduce it by 20% for EVM magic, voter list fraud etc - and then use that as a base. It'll come pretty close to the numbers that muraliravi had, I think.
KLP Dubey
BRFite
Posts: 1310
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by KLP Dubey »

Latest NDA projections

TimesNow: 249
Chanakya: 340
AajTak: 272-283
IndiaTV/Cvoter: 289
5forty3.in: 300+ (his last Phase projections not out yet, but a good guess)
ABP Nielsen: 281

Who else ?
Patni
BRFite
Posts: 886
Joined: 10 Jun 2008 10:32
Location: Researching sub-humans to our west!

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by Patni »

http://www.todayschanakya.com/images/lo ... s_2014.pdf

Link to 12 page PDF file of chanakya exit poll.
abhijitm
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3679
Joined: 08 Jun 2006 15:02
Contact:

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by abhijitm »

Times Now's wheel of seat numbers. All bonkers.
muraliravi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2819
Joined: 07 May 2009 16:49

Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Post by muraliravi »

CSDS

NDA 270-282
BJP 230-242

UPA 92-102
Cong 72-82
Locked