I think Bhaarath will get UNSC seat and also lot of tech support. The problem is that US companies will ask for their pound of flesh. It seems to me that Modi decided to side with US after seeing the behaviour of China on the borders.
It seems to me that China has bitten more than it can chew and has overplayed its hands. I think even China realizes that it overplayed its hands against Bhaarath. Thats why there was a statement telling Bhaarath not to fall for the tricks of US.
From China's perspective, it is already facing Japan, Taiwan, and South-Korea. If Myanmar, Vietnam and Bhaarath also join in, then it will be in serious trouble.
However, I don't think either Bhaarath or China want a full fledged war. However, Chinese may have wanted some kind of border skirmishes to deflect their people's attention from the economic slowdown. But, a full-fledged war might not be something that they would want especially if they are surrounded from all sides.
From Bhaarath's perspective, I think Modi decided that Bhaarath needs the support of US technologically and diplomatically to go to the next phase of regional power. A full-fledged war against China will definitely be against the wishes of Bhaarath. Bhaarath would not want to fight a full-scale war against China right now. A war against Pakistan might not be against the wishes of Modi. Modi might not be averse to possibility of a war against Pakistan if it leads to solving the Pakistan problem(i.e. weakening Pakistan or breaking Pakistan). From this perspective, isolating Pakistan is the key. Pakistan's main patron is America. So, taking away the support of America is essentially a death-blow to Pakistan.
From American perspective, I think they want to develop Bhaarath as a counter-weight to China. They started courting China as a counter-weight to Russia. Now, they want Bhaarath to be the counter-weight to China. America might not be averse to a full-fledged war between China and Bhaarath. But, I think China and Bhaarath are intelligent to realize that this is bad deal for both China and Bhaarath. Bhaarath is also an important player in BRICS. Therefore, closer collaboration between America and Bhaarath is a way to dilute BRICS.
So, essentially, this is a complex powerplay. I think Bhaarath should use America just as China had used America to rise. Bhaarath should not become dependent on America like Pakistan had become.
I think the loser in this situation is Pakistan which has become totally dependent on US.
wiki wrote:
President Nixon and First Lady Pat Nixon walk with the American delegation and their Chinese hosts on the Great Wall of China.
wiki wrote:
Richard Nixon met with Mao Zedong in 1972.
Wiki LinkOn July 15, 1971, President Richard Nixon revealed the mission to the world and that he had accepted an invitation to visit the PRC.[50]
This announcement[51] caused immediate shock around the world. In the United States, some of the most hardline anti-communists denounced the decision, but public opinion supported the move and Nixon saw the jump in the polls he had been hoping for. Since Nixon had sterling anti-communist credentials he was all but immune to being called "soft on communism." Nixon and his aides wanted to ensure that coverage of the trip emphasized the bold initiative and offered dramatic imagery. See "Getting to know you: The US and China shake the world" and "The Week that Changed the World" for recordings, documents, and interviews. Nixon was particularly eager for strong news coverage.
President Nixon and First Lady Pat Nixon walk with the American delegation and their Chinese hosts on the Great Wall of China.
Within the PRC there was also opposition from left-wing elements. This effort was allegedly led by Lin Biao, head of the military, who died in a mysterious plane crash over Mongolia while trying to defect to the Soviet Union. His death silenced most internal dissent over the visit.
Internationally, reactions varied. The Soviets were very concerned that two major enemies seemed to have resolved their differences, and the new world alignment contributed significantly to the policy of détente.
America's European allies and Canada were pleased by the initiative, especially since many of them had already recognized the PRC. In Asia, the reaction was far more mixed. Japan was annoyed that it had not been told of the announcement until fifteen minutes before it had been made, and feared that the Americans were abandoning them in favor of the PRC. A short time later, Japan also recognized the PRC and committed to substantial trade with the continental power. South Korea and South Vietnam were both concerned that peace between the United States and the PRC could mean an end to American support for them against their Communist enemies. Throughout the period of rapprochement, both countries had to be regularly assured that they would not be abandoned.
From February 21 to February 28, 1972, President Nixon traveled to Beijing, Hangzhou, and Shanghai. At the conclusion of his trip, the US and the PRC issued the Shanghai Communiqué, a statement of their respective foreign policy views. In the Communiqué, both nations pledged to work toward the full normalization of diplomatic relations. This did not lead to immediate recognition of the People's Republic of China but 'liaison offices' were established in Beijing and Washington.[52] The US acknowledged the PRC position that all Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait maintain that there is only one China and that Taiwan is part of China. The statement enabled the US and PRC to temporarily set aside the issue of Taiwan and open trade and communication. Also, the USA and China both agreed to take action against 'any country' that is to establish 'hegemony' in the Asia-Pacific.[52]
The rapprochement with the United States benefited the PRC immensely and greatly increased its security for the rest of the Cold War. It has been argued that the United States, on the other hand, saw fewer benefits than it had hoped for. The PRC continued to heavily support North Vietnam in the Vietnam War and also backed the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia. Eventually, however, the PRC's suspicion of Vietnam's motives led to a break in Sino-Vietnamese cooperation and, upon the Vietnamese invasion of Cambodia in 1979, the Sino-Vietnamese War. Both China and the United States backed combatants in Africa against Soviet and Cuban-supported movements. The economic benefits of normalization were slow as it would take decades for American products to penetrate the vast Chinese market. While Nixon's China policy is regarded by many as the highlight of his presidency, others such as William Bundy have argued that it provided very little benefit to the United States.
Wiki Linkwiki wrote:The representatives of the PRC first attended the United Nations as representatives of China on October 25, 1971, replacing the ROC.
wiki wrote:On January 1, 1979, the United States changed its diplomatic recognition of Chinese government from Taiwan to China. In the U.S.-PRC Joint Communiqué that announced the change, the United States recognized the People's Republic of China as the government of China. The Joint Communiqué also stated that within this context the people of the United States will maintain cultural, commercial, and other unofficial relations with the people on Taiwan. Since then, the ROC has often been referred to as 'Taiwan' to avoid confusion, although the Chinese government claims Taiwan as a province of China.
wiki wrote:On March 1, 1979, the United States and the People's Republic of China formally established embassies in Beijing and Washington, DC. In 1979, outstanding private claims were resolved and a bilateral trade agreement was completed. Vice President Walter Mondale reciprocated Vice Premier Deng's visit with an August 1979 trip to China. This visit led to agreements in September 1980 on maritime affairs, civil aviation links, and textile matters, as well as a bilateral consular convention.
Deng Xiaoping with US President Jimmy Carter
As a consequence of high-level and working-level contacts initiated in 1980, New York City and Beijing become sister cities, US dialogue with the PRC broadened to cover a wide range of issues, including global and regional strategic problems, political-military questions, including arms control, UN, and other multilateral organization affairs, and international narcotics matters.
The expanding relationship that followed normalization was threatened in 1981 by PRC objections to the level of US arms sales to the Republic of China on Taiwan. Secretary of State Alexander Haig visited China in June 1981 in an effort to resolve Chinese concerns about America's unofficial relations with Taiwan. Vice President Bush visited the PRC in May 1982. Eight months of negotiations produced the US-PRC Joint Communiqué of August 17, 1982. In this third communiqué, the US stated its intention to gradually reduce the level of arms sales to the Republic of China, and the PRC described as a fundamental policy their effort to strive for a peaceful resolution to the Taiwan question.
High-level exchanges continued to be a significant means for developing US-PRC relations in the 1980s. President Ronald Reagan and Premier Zhao Ziyang made reciprocal visits in 1984. In July 1985, President Li Xiannian traveled to the United States, the first such visit by a PRC head of state. Vice President Bush visited the PRC in October 1985 and opened the US Consulate General in Chengdu, the US's fourth consular post in the PRC. Further exchanges of cabinet-level officials occurred between 1985 and 1989, capped by President Bush's visit to Beijing in February 1989.
In the period before the June 3–4, 1989 crackdown, a growing number of cultural exchange activities gave the American and Chinese peoples broad exposure to each other's cultural, artistic, and educational achievements. Numerous mainland Chinese professional and official delegations visited the United States each month. Many of these exchanges continued after the suppression of the Tiananmen protests.
Wiki Linkwiki wrote:Following China's violent suppression of demonstrators in June 1989, the US and other governments enacted a number of measures against of China's violation of human rights. The US suspended high-level official exchanges with the PRC and weapons exports from the US to the PRC. The US also imposed a number of economic sanctions. In the summer of 1990, at the G7 Houston summit, Western nations called for renewed political and economic reforms in mainland China, particularly in the field of human rights.[citation needed]
Tian'anmen disrupted the US-China trade relationship, and US investors' interest in mainland China dropped dramatically. The US government responded to the political repression by suspending certain trade and investment programs on June 5 and 20, 1989. Some sanctions were legislated while others were executive actions.
So, US started engaging with China from 1972. By 1979, they were quite close to each other and had a very close relationship till 1989. In 1989, US realized that China had become too big for its boots and was not even listening to US.
I think China played it very smartly. I think they took the help of America without going completely against Russia. I think Bhaarath needs to do the same.
Nixon's visit to China in 1972 can be compared to Clinton's visit to Bhaarath in 2000. The 1979 coming together of China and US can be compared to Bush and Obama visits. The delay in Bhaarath's path is congress and left.