Russia for Assad
Even in these difficult political and economic circumstances, Russia is continuing to demonstrate its ability to maintain a pace of air operations and to supply its forces in Syria with all they need.
Judging by available reports,
Russian MOD successfully rotated ground units providing security for Hmeimim and Tartus. Aircrews are also being rotated. Naval forces in eastern Meditarranean have also been rotated. The expeditionary HQ for the Syrian operation transferred from the missile cruiser Moskva to the identical Varyag, with Moskva returning to Sevastopol.
There are reports of possible deployment to Syria of Ka-52 attack helicopters equipped with the L370 Vitebsk self-protection suite. The helicopters would ensure Hmeimim’s security and support search-and-rescue operations. No information on possible deployment of Mi-28 attack helicopters.
The news that pilots are beginning to train on the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier, new carrier-based MiG-29K fighters, and newly announced plans of a two-year modernization of the carrier starting in late 2016, the hopes to see Admiral Kuznetsov in eastern Mediterranean are waning…
The decrease in the Syria Express sorties indicates that the deployment of Russian forces in Syria is complete. Current Syria Express cargoes are mainly “expendables” such as munitions, fuel, and lubricants.
Water channel into Tartus harbor is being dredged which is consistent with the expectation it will be transformed from a technical support point into a fully fledged Russian naval base. This is more than likely, given the recent reports of unlimited duration of Russian leases on Syrian military facilities. One should get used to the fact that Russia has come to Syria in all earnestness and for a long time.
In addition to work on Hmeimim and Tartus,
Russian military advisers are expanding their work within Syria’s armed forces. One can see our soldiers among Syrian troops with increasing frequency. It’s not surprising–there are reports that Assad’s army has integrated Russian military advisers down to company level.
Russian specialists effectively help their Syrian allies not only on the front lines but also in the rear areas where Syrian forces are being retrained on equipment supplied from Russia. Here’s an important development–
Syrians were able, with direct Russian participation, to restore their armored vehicle servicing and repair system. All of that allows Damascus to gradually overcome the jihadi numbers with the quality of their forces.
The Russian efforts to “bomb ISIS into the stone age” and to split the “moderate opposition” are starting to bear fruit. There are more and more cases of not even the bombing but the mere appearance of a Russian aircraft overhead forces the militants to abandon their positions. Igor Konashenkov made the following comment: “We are noting cases of mass desertion and of whole units avoiding further fighting. Field Commander Abu Khaldun’s armed band, some 30 strong, abandoned their positions on Sunday in its entirety.”
Is that good? Of course! But, alas, 30 deserters or even 300 won’t make or break the jihadis. Only when the numbers of fleeing terrorists will reach thousands the situation will change. So far we aren’t seeing that, though work on making it happen is continuing.
“Patriotic Opposition”
There are also “men at work” on the so-called “moderate opposition. No, nobody is being lured to Assad’s side using cookies. Opposition is, as the term suggests, fundamentally opposed to Damascus. But being against Assad does not mean supporting ISIS. So why not finish off ISIS together with Damascus and then come to terms with Syria’s president?
Using that logic, Russian airpower de-facto placed the “moderates” before a simple choice: “you are either an enemy of ISIS or you are dead.” This tactic aimed at motivating the “moderates” to adopt policies consistent with Russian preferences is having effects. Particularly since the incentive is not merely the absence of half-ton bombs falling on their heads, but provision of light weapons and munitions by Russia.
This situation may bring about many unexpected collisions due to the oppositionists going back and forth. But so far it’s working. The proof of that is the use of the new term “patriotic opposition”, meaning opposition fighting the jihadis, in Russian MOD press briefings.
From a recent MOD briefing: “Russian air group command continues to cooperate with patriotic opposition formations in Syria, fighting against ISIS, al-Nusra, and others. Several days ago, we received information from a patriotic opposition unit about the location of an ISIS camp. After additional drone reconnaissance and clearing the target through the coordinating center in Baghdad, the camp was destroyed by an Su-25 attack aircraft.”
Concurrently with these activities, Moscow and Damascus began humanitarian aid airdrops to civilians in the zone of fighting. This led to a considerable increase of Assad regime’s popularity.
New old terror
The jihadists were not able to counter these operations by Syrian government forces and Russian airpower other than by using naked terror against the civilians. The result was the already mentioned slaughter and hostage-taking at Deir-ez-Zor.
Another method used by the militants is provocative shelling. Again Igor Konashenkov: “Not being able to stop the government forces’ advance, terrorists are more and more often shelling populated areas using mortars and artillery, in order to place the blame on Syrian government forces.” It’s enough to recall the recent shelling of a school in Turkey’s border area…
One way or the other, such ISIS operations are leading to further schism with al-Nusra and “moderate opposition”, and also the collapse of ISIS hopes to gain “respectability” and legitimacy in the eyes of certain Western circles.
Victory will be ours
All of that means situation in Syria is changing. Very slowly but to our favor. One must keep in mind we are at war with international terrorism, and that war won’t be over in two weeks. It’s also obvious there is no victory without effort and losses. The more effort, the fewer losses.
It means that it’s time to get up and continue the work. Day after day, no matter what, for the sake of victory. That victory is drawing closer thanks to our guys over there in Syria. We are also working for victory here, in Russia. The main thing is not to grow complacent, not expect miracles, and then victory will be ours.
http://southfront.org/syria-grim-and-bloody-routine/