Rakesh wrote: The LCA will never hit the 200 – 300 mark at the support it is getting now from the IAF. A maximum of 120 – 130 air-frames will be ordered and they will share the same fate as the Marut.<SNIP>
Why is an order for 200 or 300 LCA only seen as supporting the program and not 120? Because of percentage share of LCA in overall number of fighters which IAF fields and will field?
If above be the case, then here are couple of questions to you and everyone else who brings out numbers in similar range:
- Can this number be divorced from overall force structure of IAF basis current and future threat perceptions?
- LCA was conceived to replace Mig-21 in IAF service. But guess what, most of the Mig-21/23/27 fleet has been replaced by Su-30. You think this does not impact the slot available for Tejas in overall matrix?
- In an ideal scenario, IAF would've had Su-30MKI (272)+Rafale (126)+Tejas (120) = 518 aircraft.
To above add Mig-29 (60), Mirage-2000 (59) and Jaguar (~120). - another 240 aircraft.
This gives a total of 758 aircraft or about 42 squadrons @ 18 a/c per squadron.
There is a very stark lesson in those numbers -
36% of your fleet strength is composed of heavy-fighter aircraft. Adding MMRCA + Mig-29 + Mirage-2000 gives 32% of fleet as medium category. I'm deliberately leaving out Jaguar from this calculation. If I add Jaguar to medium category, we've 47% of fleet as medium.
That is 68% of your force is filled with a mix of heavy and medium category. Replacement of Mig-29, Mirage-2000 and Jaguar is AMCA. Even in future, IAF will be a Heavy-Medium Air Force with Light being the smallest component.
(BTW, this shows why AMCA is so important - it will form almost 50% of IAF when it comes online).
Because of the time at which LCA is maturing, it will end up replacing only 6-7 squadron worth of Mig-21 - most of earlier ones have gone to Su-30 and of the balance ~10 squadrons of Mig-21/27, LCA, Su-30 and MMRCA will be the replacement.
When IAF decided to have 272 Su-30MKI and 126 MMRCA, the overall possible numbers of Tejas were sealed then and therein itself.
So, unless you or someone else turns around and tell me that MMRCA itself was never required, there is an upper ceiling in terms of LCA numbers in IAF matrix.
So, whether F-16 comes as MMRCA-Lite or Gripen or Death-star, how is the 120 number going to get impacted from force structure perspective?
Answering my own question above - if the R&D of Tejas Mk1A drags on without clarity on timeline, numbers might get shifted to 'NEW' MMRCA Lite. That is the real threat.
And given the above scenario, IMO, the best solution to IAF's requirement of numbers and to ensure enough buffer for Tejas Mk1A to fly and get inducted is this:
1. Of the balance 90 MMRCA slots, get 2-3 more Rafale squadron to make a total of 4/5 squadrons (72-90 aircraft)
2. Transfer the balance number to Tejas Mk1A. (2-3 squadrons).
This makes IAF Heavy-Medium-Light in 36% - 41% - 23% ratio.