Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

[Cyrano]

What exactly was A_Gupta complaining about? Moi pas compris

Edited: ok, i understand now, he is right. Stalin's famine pre-dated Nazi era. I stand corrected.

[ks_sachin]

What exactly was A_Gupta complaining about? Moi pas compris

Edited: ok, i understand now, he is right. Stalin's famine pre-dated Nazi era. I stand corrected.

That was very gracious of you comrade Hercule!!!

[Cyrano]

Our eyes and ears are but tiny holes through which we see the world in the visible and audible spectrum. Our mind, while trying to make sense of it, applies its own filters. Then our emotions distort, and our character selects. It would be mighty foolish of me to think I have the truth on any subject when presented info contrary to my views, because I'd be squandering an opportunity to learn and hopefully improve. A_Gupta has done me a favour by pointing out my error.

[ks_sachin]

Our eyes and ears are but tiny holes through which we see the world in the visible and audible spectrum. Our mind, while trying to make sense of it, applies its own filters. Then our emotions distort, and our character selects. It would be mighty foolish of me to think I have the truth on any subject when presented info contrary to my views, because I'd be squandering an opportunity to learn and hopefully improve. A_Gupta has done me a favour by pointing out my error.

Mon Dieu! An approach that is more honoured in its breach than in its observance by the general population.
And as elegantly put as any prose by Edmund Rostand!!

[Cyrano]

Merci ! Cyrano khush hua !

[vera_k]

Russia has defaulted on its foreign debt

[skumar]

Our eyes and ears are but tiny holes through which we see the world in the visible and audible spectrum. Our mind, while trying to make sense of it, applies its own filters. Then our emotions distort, and our character selects. It would be mighty foolish of me to think I have the truth on any subject when presented info contrary to my views, because I'd be squandering an opportunity to learn and hopefully improve. A_Gupta has done me a favour by pointing out my error.

"Even if one can argue about the term “Nazi,” the fact remains that these militias are violent, convey a nauseating ideology and are virulently anti-Semitic. Their anti-Semitism is more cultural than political, which is why the term “Nazi” is not really appropriate. Their hatred of the Jew stems from the great famines of the 1920s and 1930s in the Ukraine, resulting from Stalin’s confiscation of crops to finance the modernization of the Red Army. This genocide—known in the Ukraine as the Holodomor—was perpetrated by the NKVD (the forerunner of the KGB), whose upper echelons of leadership were mainly composed of Jews."

from https://www.thepostil.com/the-military- ... e-ukraine/

So there is a link between the famines and the anti-semitism in Ukraine.

[Cyrano]

Yes, that's what I learnt, my error was to think Stalin caused those famines as a retribution for their support to Hitler but the timelines show that the famines occured before Hitler's rise to power.

There are umpteen references to Ukranians participating in mass killings in WW2, and the continuing extreme violent ideology by Nazi collaborator Stepan Bandera and the support it enjoys to present day. While they are called neonazis, their targets aren't just Jews but anyone they consider as non ethnic Ukranian. There is a vague mix of pre-christian pagan mythology and what not. Unsurprising since many of them are drug users as well.

The unpardonable fact is that they were actively recruited by US state dept regime change fanatics to give muscle to maidan colour revolution and funded by Ukranian oligarchs like Kolomoisky which swelled their numbers. The were integrated into Ukr Army and let loose on DLR, DPR Russian speaking population in Donbass and we get to where we are now... Terrible history which will cost Ukraine it's very existence.

[Vayutuvan]

Merci ! Cyrano khush hua !

My take is that @A_Gupta brought facts to the table which invalidate only a small part of your theory(s). The general thrust is still valid. I don't think anybody knows "truth". One can't find truth from just facts alone.

[Cyrano]

RA apparently has a long list of these neonazis (for lack of a better word) and is actively looking out for them among the soldiers killed or taken pow. They systematically checking men and even women for Nazi tattoos, content on their phones etc and if incriminating stuff is found, they are seperated from the rest and held in a different pow camp. What they plan to do later is not clear, but they will most likely be tried and sentenced to gulags or death according to their crimes by Russia. As per Putin's stated denazification objective.

[Cyrano]

In fact so many of these thugs have Nazi logos, hakenkreuz, SS symbols etc tattooed on their bodies, carry Nazi and Nazi derived flags, do heil xxx salutes etc. that they are themselves branding as neonazis, it's not a label someone else is sticking on them !

Many references cite that they are a minority and only got 2% votes etc, but their recruitment of new members, especially youth, teenagers had been hugely funded, and lots have formed militias that were absorbed into UkrA. Now the ratio is beleived to be at least 10% of UkrA, spread across units, and their role akin to SS in the Wehrmacht - powerful, with direct access to elensly and the real leaders behind him, and unpredictability brutal and violent on the ground. Rumoured to shoot UkrA regulars if they disobey orders or flinch. Truth will eventually come out fully.

[dnivas]

So crazy video of a french news reporter going to interview some of the foreign fighters. finds out that the whole program is run by US military .
https://twitter.com/antiwar_soldier/sta ... 7442569227

[Vayutuvan]

So crazy video of a french news reporter going to interview some of the foreign fighters. finds out that the whole program is run by US military .
https://twitter.com/antiwar_soldier/sta ... 7442569227

No not the whole program but the Foreign Legion. French invented that back in 1800s.

[Cyrano]

Ukraine is now releasing prisoners in Kharkov and other eastern cities, giving them arms and forming battalions to defend these cities, to supplement UkrA. They have done this already at the start of this conflict in and around Kyiv. No one knows how efficient they were, but Ukr is scraping the bottom of the barrel now.

[dnivas]

So crazy video of a french news reporter going to interview some of the foreign fighters. finds out that the whole program is run by US military .
https://twitter.com/antiwar_soldier/sta ... 7442569227

No not the whole program but the Foreign Legion. French invented that back in 1800s.

Yes I was supposed to mean the international legion of fighters in Ukraine.

[Sachin]

Ukraine is now releasing prisoners in Kharkov and other eastern cities, giving them arms and forming battalions to defend these cities, to supplement UkrA.

Ukraine seems to have a lot of male prison population who can be released from prisons and then expected to pick up arms and fight for the country. Russia can also make some intellitence assessment on the prison population in Ukraine and figure out how much of "reserve forces" do they have now. Also I see a little less of Ukraine & Russia war news at least on the news outlets I regularly scan through.

[sohamn]

Releasing people from prison and expecting them to flight never works. These people will turn on u in a blink and make deal with the enemy. I think this move is in desperation.

Russian departure from Kiev is a good and bad thing, one because Russian army has almost cut off NATO arms supply when they were near Kiev. Now Ukraine will have unrestricted arms supply, on the other hand Russia will have better logistics and open spaces more suited for Armor warfare.

[Cyrano]

I see a little less of Ukraine & Russia war news at least on the news outlets I regularly scan through.

Yes, I noticed the same too. Perhaps the reason is :

The Tochka-U cluster munition missile fired on Kramatorsk train station causing 50+ deaths of civilians including children has rightly generated huge aggrieved reactions from the NATO countries. Unfortunately, the rocket motor fell nearby and its production serial number was clearly visible. Analysts have matched it to the serial numbers of previous same missile strikes by Ukraine on Donbass and other cities and the latest number is a close match, indicating it came from the same production lot; conclusively establishing that it was fired by Ukraine and not Russia. The entire western media has gone silent since then.

France has sent a group of investigators to Ukraine to probe the Bucha massacres and more and more evidence is piling up against Ukraine, and despite piss poor media management by Russia, the facts are getting around and a little bit of questioning of Ukraine's claims and actions has started.

I'm expecting a next false flag atrocity story to come out in a few days from north eastern cities like Kharkov, Sumy etc, coz elensly has to keep showing bodies and destruction to keep public interest and opinion with him to continue his "security guarantee" emotional blackmail. There is no other way out for him now.

[Cyrano]

The Slovakia supplied S300 system (thanks to Victoria Nuland's arm twisting) was transported quite far into central Ukraine and it was destroyed by Russian bombs near Dnipro. If they hoped to interdict RuAF CAS over the cauldron, that possibility is gone now.

[vinod]

I see a little less of Ukraine & Russia war news at least on the news outlets I regularly scan through.

May be it is just fatigue. The initial shock value is gone and now it is just repeating the same.

[vinod]

The Slovakia supplied S300 system (thanks to Victoria Nuland's arm twisting) was transported quite far into central Ukraine and it was destroyed by Russian bombs near Dnipro. If they hoped to interdict RuAF CAS over the cauldron, that possibility is gone now.

Russians have now got grips with the war. They seem to be taking out Drones regularly. Ukrainians have resurrected their dead air force after 2 weeks in time for Easter. Did they get new planes or repair damaged ones? Russians are regularly shooting them down. New TB-2 are being shot downs about 100km away from front lines. More UkrainianTB-2 orders are being placed and probably with American missiles.
Russians are still susceptible to ambushes. They haven't clearly figured out a way yet to break the lines. Probably easier to starve them of food and ammunition.

[Tanaji]

Ukraine is claiming chemical attack in Mariupol. This is so predictable… Last 2 weeks UK and US were claiming Russia will use chemical weapons and had said it was yellow phosphorus. Lo and behold 3 Ukrainian soldiers smelled sweet white smoke and are injured…

Looks like an excuse to escalate and send SAMs and fighters to Ukraine

[Cyrano]

UkrA has had over 6 weeks now (after years of Donbass conflict) to create defensive structures, lay mines and position their forces and concentrate remaining equipment in the Kramatorsk cauldron. I'd expect that excepting the troops that are guarding Kyiv and Odessa, nearly all the rest is now in the cauldron for the "last stand". Its possible that many troops that managed to escape the noose around Mariupol have joined them. The total Ukr figure could be somewhere between 40-60k troops there.

Russia has some options, either go for an all out assault which will cause immense losses both sides since UkrA has dug in for weeks now and is well prepared, or take it slow and methodical, keep hitting key positions with air raids and arty, and starve them of fuel and rations, deplete vehicles and reduce mobility, make probing attacks etc. for a few weeks and force a surrender. They may prefer the latter, while reinforcing interdiction of resupply from the west. Clearing out of Ukr troops holed out in Azovstahl and Ilyich might be the tipping point.

Any supply of arms and equipment from NATO countries is pointless now. They may clear warehouse space by shipping out old soviet era junk and thats about it. Besides, most EU countries have abysmally low equipment stocks, even a somewhat credible military power like France has ammunition and missile stocks that can last for max 3 days in a high intensity conventional conflict as per recent statements from some FR Govt sources.

[Cyrano]

If anyone doubts what I've been posting re: Ukraine's love affair with extreme right wing militias, please read this Reuter's article from 2015 !! And I'll let you imagine how far this could have gone since then with Ukrainian state & US State Dept patronage.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukra ... YT20150729

[Tanaji]

The US can very well send SAMs to the theatre. It wont make a difference in Mariupol but in will definitely increase losses.

40k UKR troops in Mariupol? Isnt that a high number?

[Cyrano]

Estimated 40k+ not in Mariupol but in the area facing Donbass/Kramatorsk - the cauldron.

[vinod]

China delivers weapons to Russia ally Serbia in 'show of force'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... e-masthead

This has everyone concerned in west.

Everyone is stocking up. I hope India is also doing the same.

[Deans]

Ukraine is now releasing prisoners in Kharkov and other eastern cities, giving them arms and forming battalions to defend these cities, to supplement UkrA. They have done this already at the start of this conflict in and around Kyiv. No one knows how efficient they were, but Ukr is scraping the bottom of the barrel now.

It's actually Russia that may be facing a manpower shortage.
Russia reduced conscription in 2008, to just 12 months, More importantly, only about 20% of the eligible population are conscripted.
That's because Russia has intended for the last 10 years, to more to an all volunteer army of professional soldiers. Conscripts form only 25% of the
personnel in the Russian army.
Of the approx. 600,000 men who can be conscripted every 6 months, only about 130000 do so. This is based on a manpower requirement released every 6 months. Based on that eligible conscripts (there are many exemptions) are called up under a lottery system.
Conscripts serve 12 months, of which 8 months is basic training. In the 4 months that they spend in their unit, they perform only basic tasks. There is no interest in their training and welfare since they will be gone in 4 months. Nor does the Russian army have experienced JCOs to take charge of fresh soldiers. Conscripts cannot serve abroad. Only 10% of conscripts are interested in serving again in the military, or receive any kind of military training after their 12 months ends.

To overcome this problem, Russia has tried to build an army reserve. This is intended to be former conscripts who are paid a stipend for a 3 year contract, under which they undergo 1-2 months of training with their unit each year and will fight if called to do so, while pursuing their civilian jobs. Russia was to have a reserve of 100,000 such soldiers this year, but it is doubtful if they have even 10,000.
If Russia intends to call up the last 3 years of conscripts (and issues a decree to let them fight abroad), its doubtful if more than 10% will. The estimate is that 250,000 conscripts * 3 years, gives a reserve pool of 750,000 men. Of that, 600,000 will be training in roles relevant for combat in Ukraine. 60,000 will actually join (informal opinion polls in Russia). 10,000 of these are already in the reserve. It will also take at least a couple of months for them to be combat ready and in their units, which is why this exercise should have begun a few months ago. Ukraine has done a better job of mobilizing reserves. In all fairness though, a semi trained conscript can do a much better job in a defensive role than in an offensive one.

[bala]

China delivers weapons to Russia ally Serbia in 'show of force'

So no hollering in the Western Press about this blatant anti-west move!

[chanakyaa]

Russia cannot afford to lose, so we need a kind of a victory”: Sergey Karaganov on what Putin wants

A former adviser to the Kremlin explains how Russia views the war in Ukraine, fears over Nato and China, and the fate of liberalism.

Click the link for full article.

A former presidential adviser to both Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin, Sergey Karaganov is honorary chair of the Moscow think tank the Council for Foreign and Defence Policy. He is associated with a number of key ideas in Russian foreign policy, from the so-called Karaganov doctrine on the rights of ethnic Russians living abroad to the principle of “constructive destruction”, also known as the “Putin doctrine”. Karaganov is close to both Putin and his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, and he formulated many of the ideas that led to the war in Ukraine – though he has also expressed disagreement with the idea of a long-term occupation of the country.

Karaganov has promoted the concept of “Greater Eurasia” and has defended a closer partnership with China. He is known as a foreign-policy hawk, and has argued that the long reign of the West in world politics is now at an end. On 28 March the New Statesman columnist Bruno Maçães interviewed Karaganov about his views on the war – including controversial statements on Ukrainian nationhood and denazification that would be disputed by those outside Russia – and the future of the liberal international order.

Bruno Maçães Why did Russia invade Ukraine?

Sergey Karaganov For 25 years, people like myself have been saying that if Nato and Western alliances expand beyond certain red lines, especially into Ukraine, there will be a war. I envisioned that scenario as far back as 1997. In 2008 President Putin said that if Ukraine’s membership of the alliance became a possibility then there will be no Ukraine. He was not listened to. So the first objective is to end Nato’s expansion. Two other objectives have been added: one is the demilitarisation of Ukraine; the other is denazification, because there are people in the Russian government concerned with the rise of ultra-nationalism in Ukraine to the extent that they think it is beginning to resemble Germany in the 1930s. There is also an aim to free the Donbas republics of eight years of constant bombardment.

There was also a strong belief that war with Ukraine was inevitable – maybe three or four years from now – which could well have taken place on Russian territory itself. So probably the Kremlin decided that if you have to fight, let’s fight on somebody else’s territory, the territory of a neighbour and a brother country, once a part of the Russian Empire....

[Deans]

UkrA has had over 6 weeks now (after years of Donbass conflict) to create defensive structures, lay mines and position their forces and concentrate remaining equipment in the Kramatorsk cauldron. I'd expect that excepting the troops that are guarding Kyiv and Odessa, nearly all the rest is now in the cauldron for the "last stand". Its possible that many troops that managed to escape the noose around Mariupol have joined them. The total Ukr figure could be somewhere between 40-60k troops there.

More like 6 years to prepare defensive positions.
Lots of clips of Russian sappers clearing mines in the Donbass.
Russian analysts estimate that Ukraine has moved 25,000 men to reinforce the Donbass, while Russia will move an additional 60,000.
Donbass pocket (only the Azov steel plant) has the remnants of 4 Ukrainian battalions.

[Rudradev]

I'll say this much, no doubt unwelcome, and depart again.
...
Bye!

Welcome back, Arun ji, even if it was only for a single post! While I often disagreed with you back in the day, I do miss reading your perspectives.

[kit]

STEALING IS STILL STEALING NO MATTER HOW YOU FIB ABOUT IT !!

[kit]

Bucha was "BRITISH JOB Lukashenko claims.

Yup ., India has been there .. Jallianwala Bagh .. Brits dont change do they

and of course

https://www.republicworld.com/world-new ... eshow.html

[IndraD]

Modi stood his ground
refused to condemn Russia, asked for independent enquiry into Bucha. This riled Biden govt

[Cyrano]

Deans ji,
That Ukraine is scraping the bottom doesnt mean Russia doesn't have its own problems. And yes, minimally trained people can be more effective in defense than in offensive roles.

[sohamn]

Bucha was "BRITISH JOB Lukashenko claims.

Yup ., India has been there .. Jallianwala Bagh .. Brits dont change do they

and of course

https://www.republicworld.com/world-new ... eshow.html

Kit when you don't believe the British then what makes you believe nut job Lukashenko?

This guy is a total lunatic.

[sohamn]

Modi stood his ground
refused to condemn Russia, asked for independent enquiry into Bucha. This riled Biden govt

I saw the 2+2 readouts and looks to me the Biden govt gave a tacit approval to what India wants. I think SJayashankar let a very astute diplomacy where he managed to indeed walk on egg shells and keep both partners happy or perhaps no sad.

[John]

More like 6 years to prepare defensive positions.
Lots of clips of Russian sappers clearing mines in the Donbass.
Russian analysts estimate that Ukraine has moved 25,000 men to reinforce the Donbass, while Russia will move an additional 60,000.
Donbass pocket (only the Azov steel plant) has the remnants of 4 Ukrainian battalions.

Currently about 11 BTGs have reentered in the North east (this I assume includes some that are part of 8 mile convoy) and 4 more in Russia regrouping.


https://twitter.com/hn_schlottman/statu ... fY60fOLvUw

[bala]

guy is a total lunatic.

I am finding a good number of leaders are spouting lunatic crap and they are behaving like total lunatics. The mind is a funny thing, and when thoughts are expressed without due considerations it is lunatic. Take for example the Nato expansion, this must have emanated from a lunatic and later properly couched in terms that made sense for the circle of people involved. Next comes another lunatic idea, we need to poke the bear. Then an other about Sanctions without thought to the World reeling from KungFlu. The list is a string of lunatic ideas that the world leadership thrusts on others who are trying to live their lives, which is a short journey to redeem their karma accumulated over time. The West has its fair share of lunatics and the brits too especially W. Churchill and his famines. See we jump from one lunatic idea to another incessantly. The corpus of human thought in the world is a sorry tale of one bumbling lunatic idea to the next.