2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

[Cain Marko]

Deleted reply to wrong post.

[Dumal]

Now BJP down to 241

[sanman]

Modiji enjoying some Pasmanda votes I hope. He gave them scholarships, freebies, IAS/IPS seats and got exactly what he deserved, a big zero.

Appeasement damages the country, but doesn't damage BJP share of Muslim votes.

What damages BJP vote share is Hindu treachery.

[vimal]

The Muslims and backwards classes were terrified and probably came out in droves. Hindus were under the impression that 400 paar means easy victory and yugapurush modi can't do wrong.

One analysis going around is that the SCs believed that constitution will be changed and reservations will be remove if BJP becomes too powerful and gets 400 seats. I think in this day and age, there is no reason to believe congress lies because this issue must have been clarified amply by BJP. Whatever it is, INDI alliance succeeded in their social engineering while BJP let go of its gains of 10 years. Perhaps, Amit Shah should get back to being full time party worker and leave his cabinet post.

Look, the social engineering you are talking about is decades old. BJP should have countered these like any professional party.

Half of BJP is filled with Congress members, not sure how the party can survive with so much influx.

[Cain Marko]

Look at the bright side.

295 is comming true, but only for the NDA.

I have a counter view here - all that can be thrown at BJP was thrown - yet if BJP manages form the govt and be in power for 5 years - that will be the true awakening of India!!

Problem is that 295 for NDA will mean BJP will be at total mercy of N², and those guys can turn anytime. It's almost guaranteed that they'll betray at one point or the other.

[Sumeet]

Modiji enjoying some Pasmanda votes I hope. He gave them scholarships, freebies, IAS/IPS seats and got exactly what he deserved, a big zero.

Appeasement damages the country, but doesn't damage BJP share of Muslim votes.

What damages BJP vote share is Hindu treachery.

Well one understands what happened in Maharastra.

Rajasthan & Haryana needs to be probed.

UP needs to be investigated with great precision. This is a surprise !!

Only after that can one point fingers at larger hindu community or not.

These four states but primarily Maharastra and UP led to downfall of BJP.

[Cain Marko]

CM ji

I think right now its time to consult with Uddhav Thackeray and re unite larger BJP/NDA

Gadkari needs to be the man. AS really screwed over UT and the latter deeply resents MAD. I think unlike Gadkari, MAD have done a lot to piss people off. And these posed of people are now coming back to bite.

IN any case, this might be a moot point. it's doubtful if UT will have that many votes to counter N²

[hanumadu]

I have a counter view here - all that can be thrown at BJP was thrown - yet if BJP manages form the govt and be in power for 5 years - that will be the true awakening of India!!

Yes, we should survive this 5 years.
Hopefully, BJP candidates that thought Modi will carry the day for them will awake and pull their weight in the next election.
People who were lazy to go to the booths will get a jolt and hopefully won't leave it to others to vote.
This election is said to be highly localized and people voted for the local candidate. People should keep that in mind next time before voting on local issues for parliament. The state assembly elections should be enough to take care of local issues.
Congress will continue its social engineering. BJP should counter it and capture lost ground.
BJP should focus on the center more than the states.
BJP has made some gains in the south. They are not enough to make up for the losses elsewhere this time. Hopefully the gains will continue in the next election while stop the bleeding from elsewhere.

[madhu]

I guess Hindus too need existential threats to vote in droves… we are the sloth that awakens occasionally

i honestly doubt. when we did not learn after Direct action day and were with NeverWho calling hindu-muslim bhai bhai what more can drive them to existential threats.

the real reason before independence and even today is Muslims vote for Muslim cause and for Masjid. Hindus vote for development.

"The Muslims have no interest in politics as such. Their predominant interest is religion. This can be easily seen by the terms and conditions that a Muslim constituency makes for its support to a candidate fighting for a seat. The Muslim constituency does not care to examine the programme of the candidate. All that the constituency wants from the candidate is that he should agree to replace the old lamps of the masjid
by supplying new ones at his cost, to provide a new carpet for the masjid because the old one is torn, or to repair the masjid because it has become dilapidated

Pakistan or partition of India , Bhimrao Ramji Ambedkar, PP232

[Cain Marko]

Appeasement damages the country, but doesn't damage BJP share of Muslim votes.

What damages BJP vote share is Hindu treachery.

Well one understands what happened in Maharastra.

Rajasthan & Haryana needs to be probed.

UP needs to be investigated with great precision. This is a surprise !!

Only after that can one point fingers at larger hindu community or not.

These four states but primarily Maharastra and UP led to downfall of BJP.

I have another theory. Perhaps a bit wild. I call it the Curse of the 4 Shankaracharyas or perhaps more appropriately, the Curse of hubris.

[sanman]

Well one understands what happened in Maharastra.

Rajasthan & Haryana needs to be probed.

UP needs to be investigated with great precision. This is a surprise !!

Only after that can one point fingers at larger hindu community or not.

These four states but primarily Maharastra and UP led to downfall of BJP.

Maharashtra voters = UP voters = Parochialists

Vote Bank in UP obviously pushed Samajwadi over the top.
They like corrupt parties, because corrupt parties engage in the most appeasement.

Vote Bank are natural allies of Corruption.

[Dilbu]

BJP will lose onlee.

[Cain Marko]

The Muslims and backwards classes were terrified and probably came out in droves. Hindus were under the impression that 400 paar means easy victory and yugapurush modi can't do wrong.

One analysis going around is that the SCs believed that constitution will be changed and reservations will be remove if BJP becomes too powerful and gets 400 seats. I think in this day and age, there is no reason to believe congress lies because this issue must have been clarified amply by BJP. Whatever it is, INDI alliance succeeded in their social engineering while BJP let go of its gains of 10 years. Perhaps, Amit Shah should get back to being full time party worker and leave his cabinet post.

This makes sense, it's what I have also heard. That message about constitution being changed did a lot of damage.

[Sachin]

How much more counting rounds to go? Are the leads now firmly set? (especially in MH, UP and WB?)

[vijayk]

Nadda said BJP doesn't need RSS. I think Sangh showed him who is the boss

[Sumeet]

Look man at this time BJP just needs to work with the allies and then in 2029 come back with a bang and still work with allies. BJP needs to create a coalition of pro dharma and bharatiya civilization people.

This last term of PM Modi will provide a way for post Modi era of BJP which will be network of all pro dharma and bharatiya civilization partiies.

Then fix Maharastra, Rajasthan , Haryana and most importantly UP.

[Arima]

One analysis going around is that the SCs believed that constitution will be changed and reservations will be remove if BJP becomes too powerful and gets 400 seats. I think in this day and age, there is no reason to believe congress lies because this issue must have been clarified amply by BJP. Whatever it is, INDI alliance succeeded in their social engineering while BJP let go of its gains of 10 years. Perhaps, Amit Shah should get back to being full time party worker and leave his cabinet post.

This makes sense, it's what I have also heard. That message about constitution being changed did a lot of damage.

what about revadi promise from dot alliance?
1 lakh a year and many more hot air they promised

[BhairavP]

NDA around 300. Assuming NiKu and CBN don't switch - which I don't think they will.. they won't get importance in the dotty alliance. SP/TMC/DMK will demand their pound of flesh.

[sajo]

Who all feel that "Atleast Modi is coming back" is not yet certain ?
I am firmly in the Dhoti Shibber camp. Will a Khichadi Sarkar last the full term ?

[Sumeet]

This makes sense, it's what I have also heard. That message about constitution being changed did a lot of damage.

what about revadi promise from dot alliance?
1 lakh a year and many more hot air they promised

If this is true then during UP assembly elections BJP should be back with a bang.

[vijayk]

Who all feel that "Atleast Modi is coming back" is not yet certain ?
I am firmly in the Dhoti Shibber camp. Will a Khichadi Sarkar last the full term ?

Screwed very much.
This was my worry... complacency. No ground work. After 3 state victory, they took it for granted

[Cain Marko]

This makes sense, it's what I have also heard. That message about constitution being changed did a lot of damage.

what about revadi promise from dot alliance?
1 lakh a year and many more hot air they promised

I think people have short term memories. More importantly, the possibility of losing reservation status is a greater motivator.

[hanumadu]

Look man at this time BJP just needs to work with the allies and then in 2029 come back with a bang and still work with allies. BJP needs to create a coalition of pro dharma and bharatiya civilization people.

This last term of PM Modi will provide a way for post Modi era of BJP which will be network of all pro dharma and bharatiya civilization partiies.

Then fix Maharastra, Rajasthan , Haryana and most importantly UP.

Easier said than done. Caste trumps Dharma. Even SS ditched Hindutva. Only BJP fights for Dharma. There are not enough Hindus for whom Dharma hold primacy. There are no guaranteed, reliable coalition partners for BJP. It just has to manage the pulls and pressures of various castes. This is the big disadvantage for BJP and the big advantage of congress.

[Dumal]

I have another theory. Perhaps a bit wild. I call it the Curse of the 4 Shankaracharyas or perhaps more appropriately, the Curse of hubris.

It's always some curse or the other. Hubris, over-confidence, laziness, argumentative, castism etc., etc. A cursed country and a cursed people... (Said in a melancholic sense )

[Sumeet]

Look man at this time BJP just needs to work with the allies and then in 2029 come back with a bang and still work with allies. BJP needs to create a coalition of pro dharma and bharatiya civilization people.

This last term of PM Modi will provide a way for post Modi era of BJP which will be network of all pro dharma and bharatiya civilization partiies.

Then fix Maharastra, Rajasthan , Haryana and most importantly UP.

Easier said than done. Caste trumps Dharma. Even SS ditched Hindutva. Only BJP fights for Dharma. There are not enough Hindus for whom Dharma hold primacy. There are no guaranteed, reliable coalition partners for BJP. It just has to manage the pulls and pressures of various castes. This is the big disadvantage for BJP and the big advantage of congress.

Only after one analyzes UP result will we know the answer for certain. Maharastra could have been saved in my humble opinion.

[vijayk]

We may laugh at khatakat khatakat but many folks hope for it. See in Delhi, karnataka, HP, telangana fell for free bus fare and electricity. BJP should have taken it seriously

[SRajesh]

UP three things
1. 400 paar and end of affirmative action
2. Angiveer
3. Jat consolidation against BJP
Peaceful vote is not the only reason

[sanman]

Peaceful vote is not the only reason

not only reason but core reason

[Sachin]

Who all feel that "Atleast Modi is coming back" is not yet certain ?

I don't think Modi will be happy to lead a coailition government which would not last for more than 1.5-2 years. Most likely a new PM (from BJP) would be going to the G9 summit.

[Cain Marko]

UP three things
1. 400 paar and end of affirmative action
2. Angiveer
3. Jat consolidation against BJP
Peaceful vote is not the only reason

Agreed. forgot about that Agniveer issue.

[putnanja]

BJP should have implemented UCC in previous term itself. In the first term, they revoked Art 370. In 2nd term, there was nothing much done. They tried to bask in glory of Ayodhya temple. UCC should have been implemented in 2nd term itself.

UP people - I don't know what to say. Ayodhya temple build and Ayodhya getting lots of infrastructure development, devotees thronging and increasing economic activity- still BJP losing. Smriti Irani brought projects to Amethi that was languishing under RG, but still is losing. Yogi has initiated many infrastructure projects, expressways, and brought law and order, and still BJP losing half of the seats!

Bengal - people saw the post-poll violence after assembly elections and voted TMC to escape revenge. There were TMC ministers openly saying that once central police forces leave, state police will take care of them.

[hanumadu]

3. Jat consolidation against BJP
Peaceful vote is not the only reason

Why? Just because some entitled, washed out wrestlers did not have their way? That card has an expiry date. What if BJP forms the govt inspite of them?

Same thing with Rajputs in Rajasthan it seems.

It's a pity people identify their caste with a few thugs.

[Kati]

We may laugh at khatakat khatakat but many folks hope for it. See in Delhi, karnataka, HP, telangana fell for free bus fare and electricity. BJP should have taken it seriously

Solution is simple:
Ensure that at least 50% people are brought under the tax net, increase tax collection massively through all means, bring all IT dept babus under close watch so that there is no leakage, and then give freebies to the masses - khatakhat, khatakhat.

[vijayk]

Arun Pudur
@arunpudur
Over 150 Seats BJP is behind by less than 5,000 votes.

Only 35% of votes have been counted, still 65% left.

[sanman]

UP and AP allow Vote Bank to be blackmailers. Those states are artificial and could be broken into smaller states. Then their games won't work anymore.

[Dumal]

Almost half of the 2nd term was stymied by battling COVID and also in the middle of it dealing with Farm Law agitations and pulling back from it. Getting to where we are now is already a big achievement, IMO.

[ricky_v]

the trends are bitterly disappointing so far, not going to lie.. but that also does not mean we take a high and mighty approach towards achieving the goal, for bjp to get comfortable majority without being overtly reliant on 1 party or the other, initiate op kamal at the earliest, use the treasury that the public has given via the election bonds for this purpose, keep the opposition away at all costs, log kya kahenge be dammed, there are specific rules regarding breaking away members, use them

looking forward, the retards and muftikhor will keep voting for parties who have found the secret hack of individual greed towards freebies, maybe delimitation can help, freebie and minorities self ghettoise, that way their poison is constrained and does not bleed over

[hanumadu]

Who all feel that "Atleast Modi is coming back" is not yet certain ?

I don't think Modi will be happy to lead a coailition government which would not last for more than 1.5-2 years. Most likely a new PM (from BJP) would be going to the G9 summit.

If trends hold, BJP will fall short by 30 odd votes. I don't think Modi will give up so easily. The first thing he should do is break up congress and SP.

It's extremely important Modi and Ami Shah stay in power for delimitation.

[Prem Kumar]

UP three things
1. 400 paar and end of affirmative action
2. Angiveer
3. Jat consolidation against BJP
Peaceful vote is not the only reason

I dont buy #1. Modi successfully countered it by saying that Congress will take away SC/ST reservation and give it to Muslims

UP voted for Yogi in record numbers. And he has consistently delivered in his 2nd innings too.

I think its INDI consolidation & Hindu complacency. Modi made a big mistake by assuring he is coming back. Muslims will go out and vote even in a losing cause. But a Hindu, at the slightest sense of confidence, will chill out at home

The voting % in UP was pathetic (55%) and always has been. You can bet that, almost all the 45% who didnt vote, are Hindus. If they cannot show up to vote for 1 day when double-engine sarkar works for them for 10 years, whom to blame?

[hanumadu]

Arun Pudur
@arunpudur
Over 150 Seats BJP is behind by less than 5,000 votes.

Only 35% of votes have been counted, still 65% left.

Bull shit. Must be less than 30. But there would be an equal number of seats that BJP would be ahead by a slender margin. They will even out eventually.