2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

[hanumadu]

I would also put this on the heat. We have to have elections in January. this time, the heat was too much. There is one hope though in this. Karnataka will vote for BJP next. As we can see, the BJP primary seat wins were in south Karnataka, which means JDS consolidation has helped.

This stupid peak summer elections have been continuing for 5 terms now after Vajpayee and Advani naively advanced the date by 6 months in 2004. I think they should advance by 6 months in 2029.

[Cain Marko]

If they don't get to 272 then Modi as PM in under danger even in Varanasi he is only leading by 1L votes... looks like his zero tolerance to corruption did not make friends in his own party.

Actually, one could easily make the opposite argument. Too many corrupt leaders with dubious reputations found their way into the BJP alliance costing them votes

[Sumeet]

INC may try to merge Shinde Sena with UT Shiv Sena, NCP back to eat away numbers from NDA.

It's very important for BJP to step in and try to unite Shinde Sena and Pawar NCP into BJP fold or atleast Shinde Sena with UT Shiv Sena.

On one hand do this and on the other keep Naidu and NK happy. At this point even 2 seats of BJD (Pattnaik) matters to INDIA alliance. Hence BJP should proactively reach out to them as well.

[Prem Kumar]

Another mistake of BJP - not removing illegal BD And Roghniyas ... now it's impossible

That would not happen even if BJP wins 543

Ideologically, they are messed up. Sucked up to Leftists in 1st term. Sucked up to Muslims in the 2nd. Think that they can build a nation by winning over sworn civilizational enemies. Left Hindus to die in WB in 2019 after they gave a huge beach-head to BJP & have paid the price for it since then

BJP (Modi-Shah) have been too sold on their own Vikas kool-aid and refused to realize the civilizational danger facing us

By the time Modi wakes up to making tough decisions, he does not have the brute majority that he enjoyed for 10 years. Many here warned that this majority might not last and better to utilize it to its fullest. Blind followers pooh-poohed the naysayers, saying "Modi knows all". The chickens have come home to roost

Of course, Hindus are also to blame (more so, I should add). If BJP is not winning Ayodhya 5 months after Ram Mandir, something is seriously messed up in our psyche. Its some sort of a suicidal gene

[Aditya_V]

In TN I can see Stalin, then Udaynidhi and Then Inbanidhi- 70 years D Stock rule, can't believe people love the S*** governance I see around.

[Arima]

Another mistake of BJP - not removing illegal BD And Roghniyas ... now it's impossible

That would not happen even if BJP wins 543

Ideologically, they are messed up. Sucked up to Leftists in 1st term. Sucked up to Muslims in the 2nd. Think that they can build a nation by winning over sworn civilizational enemies. Left Hindus to die in WB in 2019 after they gave a huge beach-head to BJP & have paid the price for it since then

BJP (Modi-Shah) have been too sold on their own Vikas kool-aid and refused to realize the civilizational danger facing us

By the time Modi wakes up to making tough decisions, he does not have the brute majority that he enjoyed for 10 years. Many here warned that this majority might not last and better to utilize it to its fullest. Blind followers pooh-poohed the naysayers, saying "Modi knows all". The chickens have come home to roost

Of course, Hindus are also to blame (more so, I should add). If BJP is not winning Ayodhya 5 months after Ram Mandir, something is seriously messed up in our psyche. Its some sort of a suicidal gene

+ 1
civilization need Ram Mandir brought with it huge infra boost, highway, airport of international standard , huge rise in real estate which is gng to be boon for the local population.
AND YET......

may be curse of Ayodhya is working in strange way

[Sachin]

https://results.eci.gov.in/PcResultGenJ ... /index.htm - status check at 3:15PM IST
BJP is dead stop at 240 (Leads are being moved into Won). Congress is stopped at 99 (Leads are being moved to Won). So I think; we cannot hope for any last minute changes in leads now.

[syam]

Actually, a short time loss can do great course correction from BJP side.
Ideally, they should sit in opposition and see where things go. We will see resurgence of much powerful Hindu polity after 5 years.

We are lucky enough to see 10 years rule of Modiji. It's enough for us. We can't cling to such messiah all the time to save our collective behinds. Many MP candidates didn't put much effort in the campaign. Relying only on Modiji wave cost this election.

We really shouldn't cry sour grapes even if some foreign hand is there behind this loss. Just accept and move on. And put much better effort in future elections.

[S_Madhukar]

Development looks good for rising middle class but we might still have relatively poor who might think this is not for them and khatakhat from someone else’s pocket is a good short term boost - can’t expect big thoughts from some of the population

[Aditya_V]

This is BS- 5 years I.N.D.I alliance can do a lot of Damage, its easy to comment if you are not one of the 290 NDA MP's including 240 BJP MPs. How 99-100 seat INC have the mandate to Destroy the Country?

I see this as OK, the Best Performance with all and Sundry ganging up against Modi is this? In 2004, 2014 in the year ending 04- opposition does well. I say BJP continue what you are doing, perhaps have some targeted free bee schemes.

But what BS is that give opposition the Govt when they are below majority? Mandate is for NDA to Govern.

Funny thing Meitei's in Manipur have voted for INC- who will definitely finish them off if given power

[sanjayc]

^^ If BJP is smart, they will make 100% counting of paper trail mandatory for each vote. There is a reason why no Western country has accepted EVMs and still insist on paper.

[AshishA]

OD, KAR, TG, BR, MP, GJ, CH, AS. JH etc saved BJP from a total collapse.

Time for a change I guess as it should be. We should also remember that the vote share of BJP is intact. And it has grown 1%. Time to divide the opposition and grow BJP even more.

[syam]

This is BS- 5 years I.N.D.I alliance can do a lot of Damage, its easy to comment if you are not one of the 290 NDA MP's including 240 BJP MPs. How 99-100 seat INC have the mandate to Destroy the Country?

I see this as OK, the Best Performance with all and Sundry ganging up against Modi is this? In 2004, 2014 in the year ending 04- opposition does well. I say BJP continue what you are doing, perhaps have some targeted free bee schemes.

But what BS is that give opposition the Govt when they are below majority? Mandate is for NDA to Govern.

Funny thing Meitei's in Manipur have voted for INC- who will definitely finish them off if given power

I am not asking BJP to sit in opposition, saar. If they get the chance to form govt, they can form.

But I am not seeing that possibility. The opposition strategy was to restrict below 270. They achieved it. I am not expecting foxes like Nitish and CBN to stick to NDA.

It will be very amusing sight to see CBN and Nitish defending Modi while keeping him in PM's chair. I truly didn't see this type of scenario even in my dreams.

[Arima]

OD, KAR, TG, BR, MP, GJ, CH, AS. JH etc saved BJP from a total collapse.

Time for a change I guess as it should be. We should also remember that the vote share of BJP is intact. And it has grown 1%. Time to divide the opposition and grow BJP even more.

start with National Herald case.
Mafiosi and Raul are roaming free.

[S_Madhukar]

Does it come back to how the local govt or MLA treats local citizens? That explains DMK and TMC holding on. Why would they trust a newbie and I guess the locals are getting what they expected doesn’t matter what we think if they deserve better.

[syam]

^^ If BJP is smart, they will make 100% counting of paper trail mandatory for each vote. There is a reason why no Western country has accepted EVMs and still insist on paper.

EVMs hacking won't win you the general argument. Cuz we were defending EVMs just few hours back.

If everything goes against us, we have to put 300% more effort in our next chance. These excuses are just copium.

[Sachin]

If BJP is smart, they will make 100% counting of paper trail mandatory for each vote. There is a reason why no Western country has accepted EVMs and still insist on paper.

Then BJP would be called the sour loser. This was what I.N.D.I alliance was asking for even before the start of elections. And BJP did not agree with them.

[Sumeet]

Mandate is still for BJP to rule. BJP should consolidate power with other pro dharma parties form the govt and then go ahead to win Maharastra and UP. These are two states it needs to get back into its kitty.

Narrative has to be built for Bharatiya civilization growth, its economic growth and its military growth. At present PM Modi is the best candidate, next election someone else will be the best candidate. The talk has to focus on this narrative. People will decide 300 paar or 400 paar.

Just keep narrative in focus constantly and how BJP is best to deliver on that and opposition is not a good choice.

[drnayar]

I would also put this on the heat. We have to have elections in January. this time, the heat was too much. There is one hope though in this. Karnataka will vote for BJP next. As we can see, the BJP primary seat wins were in south Karnataka, which means JDS consolidation has helped.

This stupid peak summer elections have been continuing for 5 terms now after Vajpayee and Advani naively advanced the date by 6 months in 2004. I think they should advance by 6 months in 2029.

Wonder how much the hot weather had the role in influencing polls. The peaceful s would caste their vote even if 100 degrees C

For hindus it probably matters why the did not turn out to vote ..when it's their future ( and their kids) for next 5 years.

[S_Madhukar]

Khangressis buoyed are trying to approach NDA allies… I mean they have only doubled their tally so a Palturam or Cyberabad guy must be on their radar.
In summary I think it is only fair that the opposition is even or better off in Raj, Maha, UP the traditional strongholds mean reversion had to happen, specially if Bengal and Bihar have given a few more seats. TN has been big disappointment but northern folks don’t understand the inward pull southern states have

[Aditya_V]

Khangressis buoyed are trying to approach NDA allies… I mean they have only doubled their tally so a Palturam or Cyberabad guy must be on their radar.
In summary I think it is only fair that the opposition is even or better off in Raj, Maha, UP the traditional strongholds mean reversion had to happen, specially if Bengal and Bihar have given a few more seats. TN has been big disappointment but northern folks don’t understand the inward pull southern states have

I and many sit in TN and Don't understand why people would vote for party which did patchwork 4000 crore drains and has done nothing but letter writing for 3 years. Why vote for these guys in a Lok Sabha election?

[Lisa]

High time this is done in India. Every party should be forced to publish a budget and then,

https://obr.uk/about-the-obr/what-we-do/

needs to comment on viability. This MAY help in dealing with freebies. This office was the one that destroyed Liz Truss in the UK.

also

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org. ... ding-plans

[Dasari]

Actually, a short time loss can do great course correction from BJP side.
Ideally, they should sit in opposition and see where things go. We will see resurgence of much powerful Hindu polity after 5 years.

We are lucky enough to see 10 years rule of Modiji. It's enough for us. We can't cling to such messiah all the time to save our collective behinds. Many MP candidates didn't put much effort in the campaign. Relying only on Modiji wave cost this election.

We really shouldn't cry sour grapes even if some foreign hand is there behind this loss. Just accept and move on. And put much better effort in future elections.

You are so naive. The treasury of Indian govt is at all time best. INDI alliance can indulge in all kind of freebies at the expense of development to win another 5 years. They can reduce taxes, lower gas prices, and add massive govt jobs etc while the underlying system starts rotting. By that time, INDI alliance will show what fascism is all about and uproot any Hindutwa left in the country. Please do not harbor such fancy ideas. Infact when we see 55% turnout in UP, it is exactly this kind of overconfidence that caused this worst nightmare for India.

[Arima]

Khangressis buoyed are trying to approach NDA allies… I mean they have only doubled their tally so a Palturam or Cyberabad guy must be on their radar.
In summary I think it is only fair that the opposition is even or better off in Raj, Maha, UP the traditional strongholds mean reversion had to happen, specially if Bengal and Bihar have given a few more seats. TN has been big disappointment but northern folks don’t understand the inward pull southern states have

I and many sit in TN and Don't understand why people would vote for party which did patchwork 4000 crore drains and has done nothing but letter writing for 3 years. Why vote for these guys in a Lok Sabha election?

90% people get freebies to the tune of 3-4k every month in various schemes.
they will sulk at flood, but will vote for same cronies for this freebie.

any template of development alone will never win votes for a long time.

PS: TN has only 1-2% extrem poverty population.

[Sumeet]

Well said dasari

Opposition cannot be given keys to India’s treasury. That will be disastrous.

[Aditya_V]

Exactly- Treasury will be empty and expect bomb blasts all over the place like UPA-1 or worse

[vijayk]

400 Paar was also big mistake.
Made them believe their own BS and got complacent. 2 phases were over by the time they realized. 55% vote in UP.

[syam]

You are so naive. The treasury of Indian govt is at all time best. INDI alliance can indulge in all kind of freebies at the expense of development to win another 5 years. They can reduce taxes, lower gas prices, and add massive govt jobs etc while the underlying system starts rotting. By that time, INDI alliance will show what fascism is all about and uproot any Hindutwa left in the country. Please do not harbor such fancy ideas. Infact when we see 55% turnout in UP, it is exactly this kind of overconfidence that caused this worst nightmare for India.

It's not being naive. I am well past that stage. Even after this setback, we are not thinking about worst case scenario.
Why Hindus are so allergic to planning for worst case scenario?

If the globalists were not tangled with Trump situation back then, may be we would've seen this outcome 5 years early.

[Arima]

400 Paar was also big mistake.
Made them believe their own BS and got complacent. 2 phases were over by the time they realized. 55% vote in UP.

i believe it was a strategy to ensure opposition do not gather steam in there run up.
imagine if dot alliance where to go full blown in campaign. they could have crossed 270. they might be sulking now that they missed opportunity.

compromise on Nitish and Ajit was to ensure arrest in seat erosion.
UP is a surprise, now question is did BJP sense this early in round 2 onwards when markets started to get jittery?

[Shaktimaan]

BJP is trailing in Ayodhya itself.

Despite Ram Mandir, building of infra, new airport, new railway station, promise of billions of dollars more in Vikaas...

Why is this? If Vikas and Ram Mandir mattered to the public of Ayodhya (Faizabad) then they would vote BJP any way even if they don't like the incumbent MP. But they voted him out.

Conclusion is that the public doesn't want any of those things and wants something else instead. What is that "something else"? Is it free govt handouts?

[AkshaySG]

Amritpal Singh and Beant Singh's son (Indra Gandhi's assassin) both leading and expected to win

SP expected to win in Ayodhya where Karyakartas were killed on Mulayam's orders

You cannot explain these away by just logic, Even for general elections the biggest thought is caste.

[sanjayc]

Another mistake of BJP - not removing illegal BD And Roghniyas ... now it's impossible

BJP (Modi-Shah) have been too sold on their own Vikas kool-aid and refused to realize the civilizational danger facing us

Main problem is Hindus don't realize this. BJP very well realizes this, but not the Hindu aam janta who are living in a bubble of their immediate neighbourhood where they feel totally safe and secure, and hence can afford to call all this "conspiracy theories."

[Mukesh.Kumar]

Mandate is still for BJP to rule. BJP should consolidate power with other pro dharma parties form the govt and then go ahead to win Maharastra and UP. These are two states it needs to get back into its kitty.

Narrative has to be built for Bharatiya civilization growth, its economic growth and its military growth. At present PM Modi is the best candidate, next election someone else will be the best candidate. The talk has to focus on this narrative. People will decide 300 paar or 400 paar.

Just keep narrative in focus constantly and how BJP is best to deliver on that and opposition is not a good choice.

And West Bengal. It has 42 seats and despite a 35% dara hua population BJP vote share is 38%. That is 60% odd polarization of majority votes. Despite TMC's violence. I hope BJP doesn't abandon Bengali voters and party workers this time.

[drnayar]

BJP is trailing in Ayodhya itself.

Despite Ram Mandir, building of infra, new airport, new railway station, promise of billions of dollars more in Vikaas...

Why is this? If Vikas and Ram Mandir mattered to the public of Ayodhya (Faizabad) then they would vote BJP any way even if they don't like the incumbent MP. But they voted him out.

Conclusion is that the public doesn't want any of those things and wants something else instead. What is that "something else"? Is it free govt handouts?

Wonder if we can have a Muslim Hindu voting pattern and percentage of voting

[kvraghav]

The top three headache for BJP now is :
1) Shinde sena
2) Naidu
3) Nitish
In the same order.

Shinde sena may merge or his MP may merge with Udhav. Naidu might be manageable due to two things. He has a very strong opponent and congress under sharmila cannot align with him due to reddy factor. Pawan kalyan is also very much pro modi and might play the role of venkaiah Naidu for the BJP. Nitish i think is more stable. He was stable even during earlier NDA rules. He went off only when BJP tried to meddle with the state seats.

[sanjayc]

If BJP is smart, they will make 100% counting of paper trail mandatory for each vote. There is a reason why no Western country has accepted EVMs and still insist on paper.

Then BJP would be called the sour loser. This was what I.N.D.I alliance was asking for even before the start of elections. And BJP did not agree with them.

What is the benefit of not counting the paper trail in full? If EVMs are being gamed with embedded technologies that have been developed and we have no clue about, this will nip it in the bud. Why take the risk of not verifying the results with actual paper trail?

[Deans]

While we don't have the final result yet, the trend so far is my biggest shock - in decades of following elections. It's little comfort for me that
almost all of us here and indeed all the experts and pollsters (except YY) got it spectacularly wrong.

After the fact we are all experts with reasons who something happened. If NDA had got 400, we would have hailed Modiji's earlier declaration
as a masterstroke. Now it just made him look arrogant. That said, over the past 10 years, I have had concerns about the BJP and Modi's style of
functioning and I think there points should be introspected on.

1. It was all about Modi. Ae per senior civil servants (Anil Swarup is not the only one I have heard it from) no one disagrees with him in cabinet
or even expresses a different point of view. He is as centralised a ruler, as MMS was decentralized chaos. A lot of major decisions like DeMo,
dealing with Covid, Farm reforms and Agnipath, were too complex for the PMO to handle. They could have been better managed if he listened
to his ministers and they has the autonomy to function. Jaishankar and Ashwini Vaishnav are exceptions. Why couldn't we get a Gen. VK Singh
as RM ? He has had 100+ Maan ki Baat, but when did we last see a cabinet minister speak in public ? If Modiji is really principled, he should
publicly accept responsibility for the result and step down, if not now, at 75, after a successor is groomed. (Though I expect Nadda will be
made a scapegoat).

2. Disregard for allies. There was no need to lose SS, after the 2019 Maharashtra election, or the SAD. This cost 30 seats.
Until yesterday, the view was that the NDA allies are just freeriding on the BJP. They were never treated as partners.
Whatever be the criticism of Sonia - and I have a lot to criticize, she handled the UPA allies better than BJP handled their allies.

3. Disregard for the opposition. There was legislation that the opposition would have agreed to if there was something in it for them -
not pushed down their throats like the Farm bill. Why not just propose a model law and leave it to the states to enact ? A lot of
unprincipled toppling of Govt's - it cost them the Karnataka assembly. There was also an obsession with trying to win WB (where the BJP got
it wrong both in 2021 and now). Why not try to learn from some opposition leaders who can take opponents along.

4. Equally unprincipled taking in of turncoats and the corrupt, which made the BJP look no different from others and demoralized party
workers. The BJP has the most workers and the largest pool of candidates to choose from, but still took in turncoats, so lost more from
pissed off cadres. It's not about Nadda saying we can be independent of RSS. How many RSS men got tickets ?

5. Performance of BJP run states is no different from Opposition. My state Karnataka being an example. Mood of the nation polls consistently
show that the best CM's are from the opposition. Sikkim has been the best performing small state and Orissa the best at removing absolute
poverty. Why not learn from them instead of focusing on trying to topple their govt.

6. Everyone offers freebies of some kind of the other. The BJP had the biggest one - free food (PMGKAY) which cost 1,000,000 crore. This was
extended without any though to where the money was going to come from. Let's not blame freebies. If anything the party with the most
cadres should have known what to offer. On campaigning too Modi and Shah probably spent a multiple of the opposition.

7. Manufacturing has collapsed, but the govt will twist data to show that PLI is working, or we are importing less from China. Apart from that,
there is real rural distress. UP should have been smooth sailing compared to 2019, because the SP and BSP were fighting separately. Either
crores of voters are all stupid, or they are really not seeing a difference between parties in terms of improving their daily lives (nothing
else can explain why they did worse in WB and UP). Has the govt tried to find out and if they know why, does someone have the courage to
inform the leadership ? For the last 2 years UPs per capita income growth has been below average and below WB.

[Sachin]

What is the benefit of not counting the paper trail in full? If EVMs are being gamed with embedded technologies that have been developed and we have no clue about, this will nip it in the bud. Why take the risk of not verifying the results with actual paper trail?

Then BJP should have agreed that EVMs can be tampered and joined hands with Indian National Congress and asked for old paper ballots . We are becoming the INC of just yesterday - when they were doubting the EVMs. Now INC has no questions/doubts on EVMs, but BJP supporters get it .

[gakakkad]

I'll wait for raw voting data to be released but wtf happened in up ?

I have a theory and was worried about it when exit polls came out ..

Muslims came out in massive numbers and voted en masse in up and other places.

I ll be surprised if bjp voting % went down.

I think the only state something weird happened was up. All other states performance naarmal onlee.

[Cyrano]

Wonder what all the astrologers will say now... They were as gung-ho as pollsters