2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

[chetak]

I'll wait for raw voting data to be released but wtf happened in up ?

I have a theory and was worried about it when exit polls came out ..

Muslims came out in massive numbers and voted en masse in up and other places.

I ll be surprised if bjp voting % went down.

gakakkad ji,


It was not just the muslims alone in UP, but also the yadavs and the dalits, who majorly voted against the BJP

[AshishA]

Or maybe we are seeing a Internal struggle in the BJP out in the open? BJP lost max seats in UP. I see this as a tussle in the ranks of the BJP.

[Pratyush]

Guys, just think, all of INDI, 231, BJP alone 245.

It may be a setback. But don't for a minute think that it's a defeat.

[Aditya_V]

Yup its States where Voting % is down which has caused some concerns, heat wave combined with complacency, but wow the Muslim population of India has shown real determination while the general population has been very laid back.

[kvraghav]

^^^
There was a news clip yesterday in Karnataka where Post office had to close new account opening because more than 2000 peacefull ladies were waiting to open accounts to receive Khata Kat money.

[Deans]

Yup its States where Voting % is down which has caused some concerns, heat wave combined with complacency, but wow the Muslim population of India has shown real determination while the general population has been very laid back.

I'm a data guy, so expect to see a lot of posts like this:

The overall drop in voter turnout was just 1.6%
The biggest drop in turnout among the big states was Kerala (- 6.7%) where BJP was not in the contest in most seats.
Raj also dropped 4.8% but turnout was higher in the seats BJP lost.
In MP & Gujarat (-4.3%) which BJP won comfortably.
TN (-2.5%) BJP was not in the race.
WB (-2.3%) so Muslims voted in lower numbers ?
Turnout was higher in Andhra, Telengana and Odisha, where the BJP gained.

BJP did not lose from lower turnout,

[gakakkad]

I think modi won't be able to push through hard core reforms like ucc or labor reforms .

While we ll likely have modi for the next 5 years, for the first time in a decade he'll be bogged down by coalition politics.

Jaichands and snakes in ganges is the recurrent theme for this election cycle. It is recurrent theme for indian civilization.

[SRajesh]

I must say the Buck stops at PMO/MAD for the debacle.
Reasons:
1.Farm Laws even everyone wanted or had earlier voiced it but the way strikes were left to fester were too long. Bingo Jats moved away
2.Pasmanda Outreach What has it gained??
3.Stop the rumours about Affirmative action took a long time to come out. OBC Dalits hit job
4.Agniveer- tradiional recruitment areas have voted against
5. Vishwaguru over enactment _this has really rubbed the Goras the wrong way and they have used every weapon in theri arsensl to cut him down to size.
6. One puzzling aspect is why are 18-35 voting for the INDI block??? maybe BJP were not savvy with SM outputs or the INDI bttered it with of course foreign aid??

[Deans]

I think modi won't be able to push through hard core reforms like ucc or labor reforms .

While we ll likely have modi for the next 5 years, for the first time in a decade he'll be bogged down by coalition politics.

Jaichands and snakes in ganges is the recurrent theme for this election cycle. It is recurrent theme for indian civilization.

There was nothing stopping states from doing this, where BJP had a thumping majority.
What stopped UP for e.g. from enacting better labor laws ? (Rajasthan under Cong did it)
Similarly, states could have chosen to enact the Centre's model farm law. SAD & Haryana could have agreed not to do it, saving an
alliance partner and farmers in the rest of India.

[syam]

BJP performed well in all states except UP and MH(lost 20+10 at least). So we are short of exactly 30.

I think the internal politics messed it up. Not the caste or anything.

[S_Madhukar]

Opposition consolidated, Pisslam in danger, hope for khatakhat misled aam junta in some cases, we are seeing a reset to the previous decade. Underhand comments on internal dictatorship of PM, laundry politics and internal civil wars

[kvraghav]

Think overall 30 Up, 20 MH and 10 WB is what was missing. Internal politics and non performing MP might be the issue.

[A_Gupta]

1. Weeks before the elections, I heard Pradeep Bhandhari say that one thing that derails any political party and could derail the BJP is if the voter perceives it as arrogant.

2. Random sampling of explanations, e.g., Sanjay Dixit of The Jaipur Dialogues, now saying, Yogi was sidelined in UP administration, etc. , so the losses. Well, he knew that well before the elections. He should have said it then. The problem is that we are not in a condition where honest criticism is possible. Loyalty is taken to mean blind cheerleading.

3. Major fail for Indian psephologists. None of them come out of this with any credibility.

[Arima]

BJP performed well in all states except UP and MH(lost 20+10 at least). So we are short of exactly 30.

I think the internal politics messed it up. Not the caste or anything.

it cannot just be internal politics that PM Modi margin is reduced by 3 lak votes.
Ayodhya lost
Ameti and many more

[LakshmanPST]

BJP got lowest no. of expected seats in all states, except for minor adjustments here and there...
It was UP where they're short of 30 seats... Had they got the expected minimum no. of 62 instead of 35, they would have reached 272...
UP was catastrophe, which no one predicted... I'm still surprised how each and every pollster can get it wrong...

[AkshaySG]

Silver lining, A coalition government is several orders of magnitude better than not being in govt

Knowing what we now do for 2004, I would take a Vajpayee coalition even with the snakes in the cabinet over UPA

If BJP is able to form the government it will need to push any medium- big ticket items to state governments until further consolidation is done

[sidp]

BJP got lowest no. of expected seats in all states, except for minor adjustments here and there...
It was UP where they're short of 30 seats... Had they got the expected minimum no. of 62 instead of 35, they would have reached 272...
UP was catastrophe, which no one predicted... I'm still surprised how each and every pollster can get it wrong...

I think they, like many right wing YT channels, created a echo chamber where they mostly talk among themselves and repeat, validate, support each others data. Opposing ideas, pointers, opinions are not entertained. Maybe it influenced them not to look at some ground level realities.

[AkshaySG]

Looking at the seat wise margins and there is still about 12 seats where leads are <8000 for SP or Congress despite total votes being 5lkh +

The issue is that BJP vote share doesn't seem to be high enough to cover that gap

[Deans]

I must say the Buck stops at PMO/MAD for the debacle.

I'm glad you said it Sir, I was hesitant to. If the BJP was a company, Modi and Shah would have been sacked.

I agree with your points and highlighted what could have been done on farm laws.

As far as youth is concerned: There are no young leaders being showcased in BJP. In Karnataka, apart from Surya, there only other youth
leader is serial rapist Prajwal.
- 39% of BJP candidates were above 60 years compared to 30% for Congress.
- 19% of BJP candidates are under 50, compared to 24% in the Cong.
- 45% of BJP candidates have criminal cases against them. It is the same for INDIA, which is hardly the point for young educated voters.
- 25% of BJP candidates are defectors.

They don't want to see the PM's face on everything (which is why they rejected the Gandhis), or RSS uncles attacking couples holding hands in public.

[sanjayc]

BJP needs to hold on to power in center at any cost, even with a coalition. Pawar (83 years) and SG (77 years) are not getting any younger and may not be around in 10 years. NCP and Congress will collapse without them. So just keep occupying the seats till then, whatever compromises have to be made. It is only a matter of time.

[Sumeet]

UP’s vote share needs to be studied in detail. Maharashtra can be corrected by uniting Shiv Sena. However, UP needs to be thoroughly investigated and immediate measures needs to be taken to fix it.

After that Rajasthan, Haryana and West Bengal could be looked into.

We need local UP guys to speak out as to what happened.

[AshishA]

BJP performed well in all states except UP and MH(lost 20+10 at least). So we are short of exactly 30.

I think the internal politics messed it up. Not the caste or anything.

it cannot just be internal politics that PM Modi margin is reduced by 3 lak votes.
Ayodhya lost
Ameti and many more

All of those seats are in UP. It's not a coincidence is it? My Dad supports Congress and he had said Amethi, Ayodhya and many seats will be lost. He got his information from the usual darbari youtube channels. I used to dismiss them as shit family darbaris say. But looks like it was indeed correct. He did say BJP is going to get 240 seats and congress is going to get 100. And both were extremely accurately even more than pollsters.

For last some months he definitely used to say Yogi camp and Modi camp have been in a intense struggle and this might just have been the sabotage that might have resulted in loss of 30 seats in UP. Moreover, opposition cleverly ensured the talk spread that if Modi comes to power again, Yogi is going to go. And people of UP chose Yogi over Modi.

[AkshaySG]

2014 : 282 seats with 31% vote share
2019 : 303 seats with 37% vote share
2024 : ~245 seats with 37.5% vote share

It comes down to conversion rate, BJP has usually been exceptional at it but has horribly underperformed here, Almost all tight races going to SP/TMC and in some cases even to INC

[A_Gupta]

If there is an analysis of strike rate (seats won/seats contested) for the BJP and for the NDA by phases 1-7 of the elections, that data might have a story to tell,

It is beyond my capacity to do that analysis, though.

[Deans]

I think they, like many right wing YT channels, created a echo chamber where they mostly talk among themselves and repeat, validate, support each others data. Opposing ideas, pointers, opinions are not entertained. Maybe it influenced them not to look at some ground level realities.

It works the other way too. If someone like RR tells us what's wrong with the economy, he's lambasted as a Cong stooge. But if we discount his
political views, there is not only merit in a lot of what he says, I doubt the people advising the PM, in the PMO are better qualified. I'm not sure if
the govt was capable of listening to alternate views, weather on DeMo, Agnipath or farm laws.

For e.g. on DeMo, it was pointed out by RR and others that very little of our black money was in the form of cash. It as much better to have strongly
implemented the Benami assets law - which the Govt did enact, but enforced less than half heartedly. I have no idea what was the tax penalty under
DoMo, or the amount recovered under the new Benami law, because the govt stopped mentioning either of them after a year.

[SBajwa]

Most of us are not on the ground. The psephologists are, to varying degrees.
That nearly all of them got it wrong is very puzzling. There is more to it than is visible right now.

It aint over until its over.

They did not got wrong they did it deliberately so that people get false sense of victory and do not go out to vote. This election is the first one totally managed on Social media by foreign players along with Paid media inside India.

[syam]

it cannot just be internal politics that PM Modi margin is reduced by 3 lak votes.
Ayodhya lost
Ameti and many more

Elusive M vote bank is the reason. We are always fighting for 70% of votes, while the congi+ fully enjoys the 30% votes.

They just need to fool another 10% to safely win any seat. It's that easy. And BJP knew about it too. But this time, they ignored it for some reason. The mastermind behind this congi+ resurgence outsmarted them this time.

If you observe the pattern so far, they let BJP enjoy huge margins in their strong holds and chipped away those 5s and 10s from tough areas. Its cumulative effect changed the whole game.

[A_Gupta]

Criticisms of the BJP/Modi with information you had before the elections is a sign of fair-weather friendship.

[Sachin]

Guys, just think, all of INDI, 231, BJP alone 245.

You have a point here. But it is like the case of terrorists. The good guys - security forces - needs to win strongly every time, the terrorist gang only has to win once to make the impact. Even as per protocols, the President usually would call the party with the highest seats to form the ministry. Thus they get a chance to form the government as well. In the instant case; BJP would naturally get called the first.

Stop the rumours about Affirmative action took a long time to come out. OBC Dalits hit job

I felt that the BJP did not have a strong manifesto (with planned actions) this time around. It was Modi & 400 paar. Both where jingoistic. Where as; I.N.D.I came out blasting with a well thought out of manifesto. It was an action plan (how ever divisive it was to India - it was a plan). Then BJP started going on the defensive. I.N.D.I also kept their manifesto plans a close guarded secret.

it cannot just be internal politics that PM Modi margin is reduced by 3 lak votes.

It could be that the vote sharing between SP & Congress actually worked on the ground this time. If there are new voters enrolled in large numbers, there needs to be some reasonable analysis on how they voted.

Moreover, opposition cleverly ensured the talk spread that if Modi comes to power again, Yogi is going to go. And people of UP chose Yogi over Modi.

When such rumours start, one way to cut the rumour by clearly sending a message that there are no such plans (as said in the rumour). If silence is used instead; it only means that what is in the rumour is the truth. Don't know if BJP HQ did any thing to counter this rumour (or they were even aware of it). Other wise it will just bolster the feeling that Na.Mo and A.Shah are running the party like dictators.

[vijayk]

Aravind @aravind
I think numbers coming from the ECI are a bit staggered, slow, and selective.

The idea may be to prevent disruption of the electoral counting process and decimate claims of EVM rigging, etc, as opposition is leading in many seats.

Then, as 5 pm. approaches, security will be tightened, and all numbers will be released reflecting true results.

This prompts any chance of trying to disrupt counting, calling fraud, etc, as all opposition parties are winning now and very quietly accepting results without any tamasha.

I think this election results will surprise many towards the end. If what I am saying is actually what is being played out, then really well played.

Possible???

[A_Gupta]

So from taking direction from the Prime Minister’s Office, now the psephologists take direction from foreign masters.

Previously, EVMs from being unhackable now need utmost scrutiny.

People who used to blast any criticism of some BJP local mischief are now themselves full blown critics of the party.

So the world turns. But I guess these things happen to expose who is who.

[putnanja]

Kannada news site reporting that the opp cong alliance is promising Dy PM post to Nitish and special state recognition to AP to woo them

[sajo]

Kannada news site reporting that the opp cong alliance is promising Dy PM post to Nitish and special state recognition to AP to woo them

BJP can too very well do that no ? Maybe break away Hindu MPs from SaPa as well.

[Sumeet]

What the hell is a deputy PM ?

[Pingale]

Haha... Kangress offers to Nitish and CBN is laughable. BJP will offer the same and they are kingmakers on this side. On Oppo side, they will be one of many contenders who have higher seats (DMK, TMC, SP). Doesn't even make sense for anyone to entertain it.

[sajo]

What the hell is a deputy PM ?

It could be a pseudo Margadarshak post for inaugurations and hastakshars when the PM is out of the country.

[vimal]

What the hell is a deputy PM ?

Hark back to coalition era.

[Pingale]

Didn't LK Advani become deputy PM in 2002? So, it's not without precedence.

[Kati]

An example of BJP’s poor campaigning:

Jadavpur LS Kendra - in the southern part of Kolkata mostly resided by the secular folks. In the past it used to be a red fortress, but no more. Over the last ten years Mumtaz Banoo changed the demography slow but steadily. Wealthy secularists moved away to newly developed and pricy suburbs, and their properties got sold to the peace fool ones. If you travel from Gariahat area to further south you would see many traditional Hindu businesses have been replaced by the biryanis shops run by the peace fools.

Now, just a week before the polling, my Supreme High Command (SHC) - who ran up and down the Jadavpur constituency for personal business, asked me worriedly - “Isn’t BJP contesting the Jadavpur seat?”

Why?

She didn’t see a single poster or banner bearing the name of the BJP candidate (Dr. Anirban Ganguly), while the TMC candidate Sayani Ghosh’s face was plastered everywhere. (It is this infamous Sayaji Ghosh who came to linelight by putting a condom on a Shivalinga.)

TMC ran a very effective campaign truly at the grassroot level. Near posh / intellectual areas like Jadavpur university - it was Sayani’s face with fashionable short haircut. This is to woo thousands of Univ students, especially girls. Whereas in slum areas or in geriatric areas it is Sayani in traditional saree with long hair with a thali in hand. But BJP candidate’s pic was hard to find. . . . I had to console my SHC that in this digital age most of the campaigning is taking place through SM. . . . Anyway, NaMo did come to South Kolkata for a massive rally, but the local candidates could have done more on their own.
They wanted to piggyback on NaMo’s charisma.

Hope, the party has learned the lessons.

[Kati]

^^^
BTW, Sayani Ghosh has won the Jadavpur seat with a staggering margin of 2.42 lakh votes.