Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

[SSridhar]

Whether SQUAD, AUKUS or QUAD, China is our permanent & mortal enemy.

[sanman]

If this latest grouping also falls short, perhaps the next grouping can be called SPAZ - Singapore, Philippines America, New Zealand

spaz
/spaz/

noun
an incompetent or uncoordinated person.

verb
lose physical or emotional control.

[sanman]

I have a question for you all - do you think America/West will one day encourage China to invade Mongolia, in order to instigate trouble between China and Russia?

Look at Mongolia's population - just barely above 3 million - making it ripe for China's taking, just like Tibet.

[hgupta]

Whether SQUAD, AUKUS or QUAD, China is our permanent & mortal enemy.

You may think so but it’s actually the US since US was the latest avatar of British imperialism and British imperialism is India’s permanent and mortal enemy after the Mughals were vanquished. China has never been an enemy of India until 1959.

[ramana]

Whether SQUAD, AUKUS or QUAD, China is our permanent & mortal enemy.

Am surprised SS. There are no permanent enemies, only permanent interests.
PVNR who knew more than most of us had said to paraphrase, "The West will come to India to defang China. My advice is to be neutral."

[ramana]

Gen PRS is coming across as a Col Blimp-type character.

[SSridhar]

Whether SQUAD, AUKUS or QUAD, China is our permanent & mortal enemy.

Am surprised SS. There are no permanent enemies, only permanent interests.
PVNR who knew more than most of us had said to paraphrase, "The West will come to India to defang China. My advice is to be neutral."

Nothing to be surprised about, ramana.

There are certain civilizational aspects in certain countries or in relationships between certain countries. For example, I am convinced that China & Japan could never have a normal state-to-state relationship because of their 2000 year-old civilizational hostility. The Japanese investments in China and the Japan-China trade volume do not alter that equation. That hostility is very enduring and deep-seated.

China's global goals are too well known for repetition, especially here. As our forced-neighbour, its designs and actions are mortally threatening to us. Even if China were to make a course-correction to its stand with us, that would be only tactical as it did in the late 80s & 90s.

Oh yes, PVNR was way too knowledgeable. However, if only permanent interests matter, and rightly so, defanging China is in our permanent interests too because of its behaviour with us since becoming a neighbour as well as its massive size & power which it misuses in the region and in our neighbourhood and backyard. We might not have had a civilisational enmity with China like what Japan had but that cannot be attributed to China's practice of benign statecraft with us for over two millennia. There were other reasons.

[sanman]

Why American Automakers Are Failing In China

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiamzUP6rjo

[sanman]

China grabbing more land from Bhutan:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9xe7N_OEXs

[A_Gupta]

https://insideevs.com/features/719015/c ... d-of-west/
China vs the West in electric vehicles

[chetak]

This is why the cheenis, so very badly, want arunachal pradesh


https://www.youtube.com/shorts/W6FotCLD ... ture=share

[S_Madhukar]

Ex US Harrier pilot who gave up US citizenship and took Oz passport is charged by US of sharing secrets with Chinese pilots when he was instructor in South Africa and was paid $180K salary. He and family had earlier lived in China for 6 years where he was apparently hired as aviation consultant . Aussie wife says he is innocent but shows you 5 Eyes is a superstate where US calls the shots. This happened more than 10 years ago but only now he was arrested after relations with China have been down recently

https://youtu.be/YTi7Lw6wTXU?si=kNWEoVBU7ZSiF67x

[sanman]

US putting new tariffs on Chinese products

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtAGDcfCOpk

[sanjaykumar]

Gotta admire the way the Americans go for their national interest. They have wiped out trillions from the Shanghai stock exchange but have no intention of stopping.

Lowered demand from the us and allies. Firms pulling out. Investment being curtailed. Alternate supply chains in India Vietnam Mexico. How to win without fighting a war. Sun Tzu anyone?

[srin]

This is why the cheenis, so very badly, want arunachal pradesh


https://www.youtube.com/shorts/W6FotCLD ... ture=share

I don't understand. Since Brahmaputra and its tributaries are at a lower elevation in Arunachal than in the Occupied Tibetan plateau, what will the Chinese plan to do with the extra water - do they plan to pump it up the mountains ? Or resettle their population in Arunachal ?

[sanman]

US drills rehearse attacks on China's maritime militias (aka. "Little Blue Men" )

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOl8CqDel64

[sanman]

China Plans "6 Wars" to Regain Lost Glory

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yf1wzDBcmcM

[sanman]

China hosting Egypt's Al-Sisi on Visit

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0smPzbhF3Xo

What is China's game in West Asia? Are they going to pull US allies away? China's outreach to Middle East seems to be increasing, and I'm sure the US lobbies and deep state won't be too pleased.

[sanman]

China using Israel-Hamas war to move into Middle East

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/CCR8jGta3Os

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARa_FzmNmaQ

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/GUm74GXbN28

[R Charan]

Satellite Images Reveal China Deployed Six J-20 Stealth Fighter Near Indian Border



Satellite imagery reveals that China has positioned six of its most advanced J-20 stealth fighter jets at the Shigatse dual-use airport in Tibet. This strategic location is approximately 150 kilometers from the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the de facto border between India and China, and near the sensitive Doklam region.
https://defence.in/threads/satellite-im ... rder.7004/

[ramana]

Sanman please limit your posts here to 4 a day. Don't flood us.

Post should have a bearing on India.

[Deans]

Satellite imagery reveals that China has positioned six of its most advanced J-20 stealth fighter jets at the Shigatse dual-use airport in Tibet. This strategic location is approximately 150 kilometers from the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the de facto border between India and China, and near the sensitive Doklam region.

What surprises me is the lack of hardened shelters for these aircraft on the base. You can see these on google earth in any of our fighter bases like Tezpur or Gorakhpur (bases tasked with handling threats from Eastern Tibet).

[Deans]

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/06/th ... hreat.html

My latest blog post talks of our $ 100 bln (and growing) trade deficit with China.
It is going to be over $100 bln for the second year running. Including China and under invoiced imports it is 50% higher than our defense budget.
Perversely, following any increased tension with China (like Galwan) our imports increase.
I argue that the Govt is disingenuous when discussing the threat, preferring to give us more comforting statistics.

[sanman]

Sanman please limit your posts here to 4 a day. Don't flood us.

Post should have a bearing on India.

Hi,



I feel China intervention in Middle East has bearing on India, because it will intensify US hostility toward China, which will create more openings and leverage for India. I feel US has unusually strong sensitivities on Middle East ("Holy Land") which amount to an Achilles Heel. India obviously gains leverage from US-China hostilities, which had been taking a back seat due to US-Russian hostilities which disadvantage India.

China's maritime militias (aka. "Little Blue Men") are another potential threat to us. They're like Chinese version of jihadi irregulars. They could one day cause problems even in Bay of Bengal, if they show up there.

[SRajesh]

J-20 parked under open skies
Probably just a message rather than any major strategic plan??
And that too just before the election results maybe indicating tougher negotiations (hoping dotty will come to power and capitulate after much dhoti shivering)
Did they get it wrong is the question

[bala]

Ankit Shah prediction on downfall of China.

[sanman]

This guy is US businessman in China who presents a flip-side view:



Is this another Belt-&-Road style initiative from China?

[SSridhar]

'The Developing Military Alliance in North-East Asia'

[ramana]

'The Developing Military Alliance in North-East Asia'

Thanks SS. Also read the intern's issue brief. Good training.

[ramana]

Few articles on Galwan anniversary

https://www.news18.com/opinion/global-w ... 33531.html

Sriparna Pathak in Hindustan Times

https://www.hindustantimes.com/ht-insig ... D_w97uhtnA

Maj Gen Jagatbir Singh

https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/fourt ... 6.html/amp

[SSridhar]

'The Developing Military Alliance in North-East Asia'

Thanks SS. Also read the intern's issue brief. Good training.

Thanks, Ramana for following. I am really happy that the college kids are doing phenomenally well.

[SSridhar]

From Japan Times:

The U.S., South Korea and Japan will sign a deal to formalize their security partnership against threats from North Korea’s nuclear weapons, cementing ties before America inaugurates its next president in January.

South Korean Defense Minister Shin Wonsik said in an interview that he will soon meet his U.S. and Japanese counterparts to sign the pact known as the Trilateral Security Cooperation Framework.

"A priority would be to establish a system to more effectively, promptly and coherently respond to North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats among South Korea, the U.S. and Japan, and to make that irreversible,” he said in the interview in his office in Seoul on Friday.

[ramana]

Thanks SS. Also read the intern's issue brief. Good training.

Thanks, Ramana for following. I am really happy that the college kids are doing phenomenally well.

Do you have Grp Capt Dr. Srinivasan's workshop notes on research methodology? It will help a lot of young scholars to be focussed.

[ramana]

From Japan Times:

The U.S., South Korea and Japan will sign a deal to formalize their security partnership against threats from North Korea’s nuclear weapons, cementing ties before America inaugurates its next president in January.

South Korean Defense Minister Shin Wonsik said in an interview that he will soon meet his U.S. and Japanese counterparts to sign the pact known as the Trilateral Security Cooperation Framework.

"A priority would be to establish a system to more effectively, promptly and coherently respond to North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats among South Korea, the U.S. and Japan, and to make that irreversible,” he said in the interview in his office in Seoul on Friday.

Japan is already under the US nuclear umbrella. And so is So Korea. So what is this tri-lateral security agreement?
IS is EAst Asia NATO?
Or is it to prevent SoKo and Japan from exercising the nuke option?

[SSridhar]

Thanks, Ramana for following. I am really happy that the college kids are doing phenomenally well.

Do you have Grp Capt Dr. Srinivasan's workshop notes on research methodology? It will help a lot of young scholars to be focussed.

All our interns go through his workshop first before they start their work. He also makes the preliminary review to ensure they have stuck with what they have been told. He runs it as a work shop, very interactive.

[SSridhar]

[Japan is already under the US nuclear umbrella. And so is So Korea. So what is this tri-lateral security agreement?
IS is EAst Asia NATO?
Or is it to prevent SoKo and Japan from exercising the nuke option?

I see the new Trilateral Military alliance stemming from two sources:

1. Neither Japan nor SoKo have nukes, even while NoKo threatens of 'teaching lessons with nukes' and causing 'annihilation', both unmistakable refernces to employing nuclear weapons. Japan developing nukes is a remote possibility as of now due to its domestic constituency while a completely opposite domestic constituency is compelling SoKo to go nuclear. However, it will still take SoKo at least a decade to have a reliable nuclear deterrence against DPRK. That doesn't cut. Both Japan & RoK are therefore vulnerable to nuclear coercions and are sitting ducks. At the same time, they both have lost confidence in the US nuclear umbrella, though not in its nuclear weapons & missiles per se, as the US has started to politically unravel, inward-looking and shrinking. So, they want to ingrain themselves in an alliance where they would also have a say when it comes to countering nuclear coercion or even in nuclear exchange rather than leaving it all solely to the US which is what the current status is, way too one-sided. The Nuclear Consultancy Group (NCG) formed between the US & RoK is in effect a nuclear command authority in the region, ostensibly against DPRK. Japan has its own compulsions not to join such the NCG at present.
2. Of course, the second reason is NATO. NATO wants to expand to the East, not only within Europe, but East Asia too. Both Japan & SoKo want to be partnering with the NATO. The AP4 group (Japan, RoK, Oz & NZ) align with the NATO on everything.

BTW, if two more new nuclear weapon states in Asia can be prevented from appearing in the horizon, that would be good in the continent which has the most number of NWSs (also rogue NWSs) with deep irredentist issues & extremist theocratic ideologies.

[Garooda]

Satellite imagery reveals that China has positioned six of its most advanced J-20 stealth fighter jets at the Shigatse dual-use airport in Tibet. This strategic location is approximately 150 kilometers from the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the de facto border between India and China, and near the sensitive Doklam region.

What surprises me is the lack of hardened shelters for these aircraft on the base. You can see these on google earth in any of our fighter bases like Tezpur or Gorakhpur (bases tasked with handling threats from Eastern Tibet).

I'm sure a lot of nations are possibly investing in good, cheap, reliable drones after its track record in the Russia - Ukraine war. Destroy expensive equipment with cheap drones.

https://insidefpv.com/blogs/news/top-10 ... ufacturers

[tandav]

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/18/poli ... index.html

The nexus of China and drug money laundering is global. Similar tactics (mirror transactions in Chinese banks for transactions in Mexican Banks) used in Mexico for smuggling drugs and contraband in USA is likely used in Punjab, J&K, North East. Very similar to the Hawala systems used between Gulf and India which ofcourse deal in cash only.

[ramana]

SS

BBC report on Chinese interest in Indian.elections.

https://monitoring.bbc.co.uk/product/b0001sd6

[SSridhar]

Thanks