Pahalgam Terror Attack: News & Discussion

[williams]

The Wagah circus is thankfully stopped.
Pukistanis are being deported.
Diplomatic relations are curtailed.

All are important steps short of firing bullets.

No word about cease fire yet. I thought that would be tossed first, given we don't have any ammunition shortage issues now

[Amber G.]

Pakistani chargé d'affaires to India Saad Ahmad Warraich summoned to India’s Ministry of External Affairs South Block at midnight by JS PAI over the Pahalgam Terror Attack by Pakistani terrorists sponsored by Pakistan Army/ISI.

[Amber G.]

Full statement by foreign secretary Vikram Misri :

[partha]

Government has called for an all party meeting to be chaired by RM Rajnath Singh. An all party meeting is not necessary if the retaliation is limited to surgical strikes or a Balakot type attack. Full blown mil op crossing the LoC? Limited war?

[SBajwa]

I see this as the equivalent to the abrogation of 370. Gives India the ability to permanently dismantle the IWT albatross. Disables the Paki ability to tie down any waterwork projects in India.

Putting treaty on abeyance is one thing and it needs to be supplemented with redirecting of water that flows out of India.
What immediate option we have to stop that flow. Until then it's just a threat.

Chenab river to Ranjit Sagar Lake on Ranjit Sagar Dam (on River Ravi) is only few Km's above and thus at least water of Chenab can be easily diverted.
Connect Ravi to Satluj and Satluj to dry river called Ghaggar (where one time River Saraswati use to flow down south to Rajasthan and dried up thousands of years ago). Ghaggar river is big empty river only flows in monsoon that goes down south from Himachal Hills, passes Chandigarh, Punjab, Haryana and into Rajasthan where it dries up.

[jash_p]

India should stop playing cricket with Pakiland in all form that is including ICC tournament that will stop tons of money to Pakis which is indirectly going to Pak army and for them to terrorist. Last year ICC paid $39 million to PCB out of which India's share was 80%. Only problem is India have signed with ICC that it will paly with Pakis and can not unilaterally pulled out so India should tell ICC to amend that or else India will leave ICC. Is any one is from gov. or knows in Indian gov. please let them know.

[sudeepj]

Putting treaty on abeyance is one thing and it needs to be supplemented with redirecting of water that flows out of India.
What immediate option we have to stop that flow. Until then it's just a threat.

Chenab river to Ranjit Sagar Lake on Ranjit Sagar Dam (on River Ravi) is only few Km's above and thus at least water of Chenab can be easily diverted.
Connect Ravi to Satluj and Satluj to dry river called Ghaggar (where one time River Saraswati use to flow down south to Rajasthan and dried up thousands of years ago). Ghaggar river is big empty river only flows in monsoon that goes down south from Himachal Hills, passes Chandigarh, Punjab, Haryana and into Rajasthan where it dries up.

This is a fantastic plan. It may require us to spend several billion dollars, but it will put an end to Pak mischief. Do not suspend IWT, withdraw from the IWT. And take up these plans on a war footing.

[A_Gupta]

Suspension of IWT means that the only recourse Pakistan has left over water is to go to war - no international tribunal or arbitration.

[RCase]

Suspension of IWT means that the only recourse Pakistan has left over water is to go to war - no international tribunal or arbitration.

Well Bhikaristan can take the recourse to war. But do they have the money for ammo and fuel to fund the war?

[drnayar]

Suspension of IWT means that the only recourse Pakistan has left over water is to go to war - no international tribunal or arbitration.

Well Bhikaristan can take the recourse to war. But do they have the money for ammo and fuel to fund the war?

they have all funds for the military, remember its an army with a state.. i say make them bleed

[drnayar]

Government has called for an all party meeting to be chaired by RM Rajnath Singh. An all party meeting is not necessary if the retaliation is limited to surgical strikes or a Balakot type attack. Full blown mil op crossing the LoC? Limited war?

could be multiple strikes as well.. its time to show them how big the danda is.. all their bases could become toast in a matter of hours

[Rakesh]

VIDEO: https://x.com/ShivAroor/status/1915066666939191745 ---> “I have no doubts in my mind that drastic action will take place,” says ex-Air Chief Fali Major. (As IAF chief in 2008, he famously presented target options in Pakistan after 26/11, but the Govt chose not to green-light airstrikes).

[Rakesh]

VIDEO: https://x.com/AdityaRajKaul/status/1915126420038414505 ---> This is the voice of every Indian today. Sanjay Dwivedi from Uttar Pradesh lost his son Shubham in the Pahalgam terror attack. A grieving father now urges PM @narendramodi: Strike Pakistan so hard that seven generations will not dare to attempt another terror attack.

[suryag]

saala pichwada dhoney key liye bhi paani nahi hona chahiye, bhooke marney do

[chetak]

@ARanganathan72·5h

Munir remembered the two nation theory, Modi remembered the one river system.

[partha]

Government has called for an all party meeting to be chaired by RM Rajnath Singh. An all party meeting is not necessary if the retaliation is limited to surgical strikes or a Balakot type attack. Full blown mil op crossing the LoC? Limited war?

could be multiple strikes as well.. its time to show them how big the danda is.. all their bases could become toast in a matter of hours

We should grab territory and draw a new LoC and do this as a response to each terror attack.

[SBajwa]

saala pichwada dhoney key liye bhi paani nahi hona chahiye, bhooke marney do

vo Arbian ki tarah Patthar aur Sand se kaam chalayenge.

[chetak]

You need the IQ of a blob of protoplasm to write nonsense like this

[williams]

It should be a multi pronged attack on all Paki Army assets with collateral damage to army's private assets. Include the Navy this time, sink the supply ships and starve them. Take the air traffic out. We need to follow Israeli style strikes and don't care about the collateral damage.

[Amber G.]

On April 22, 2025, the worst civilian terror attack in Kashmir since 2008 unfolded in broad daylight. 26 Hindu tourists were singled out and executed by terrorists. The Resistance Front—a Lashkar-e-Taiba proxy backed by Pakistan has taken credit for the horrific attack. But if you look at headlines from major Western media outlets, you wouldn’t even know Hindus were targeted.
@nytimes @washingtonpost, @CNN, @BBCWorld,@Reuters, and @AP
- They downplay terrorism. Sanitize it. Hide the victims' religious identities. Call terrorists “militants.” Put “terror attack” in sneer quotes.
This isn’t just a tragic story—it’s deliberate erasure.
In this powerful breakdown, we expose: The selective language used to obfuscate the truth
The history media conveniently forgets
The ideological agenda behind the violence it ignores
How the victims and entire communities are being gaslit in real time
Watch this to understand what really happened, why it matters, and how legacy media is failing us once again.
This is more than a video. It’s a call to reclaim the truth.

Worth watching the video - breakdown on legacy media’s

[williams]

On April 22, 2025, the worst civilian terror attack in Kashmir since 2008 unfolded in broad daylight. 26 Hindu tourists were singled out and executed by terrorists. The Resistance Front—a Lashkar-e-Taiba proxy backed by Pakistan has taken credit for the horrific attack. But if you look at headlines from major Western media outlets, you wouldn’t even know Hindus were targeted.
@nytimes @washingtonpost, @CNN, @BBCWorld,@Reuters, and @AP
- They downplay terrorism. Sanitize it. Hide the victims' religious identities. Call terrorists “militants.” Put “terror attack” in sneer quotes.
This isn’t just a tragic story—it’s deliberate erasure.
In this powerful breakdown, we expose: The selective language used to obfuscate the truth
The history media conveniently forgets
The ideological agenda behind the violence it ignores
How the victims and entire communities are being gaslit in real time
Watch this to understand what really happened, why it matters, and how legacy media is failing us once again.
This is more than a video. It’s a call to reclaim the truth.

Worth watching the video - breakdown on legacy media’s

The headlines will come if India starts with disproportionate response and repeats that pattern moving forward. We need to be very clear, we normalized this behavior over years. Time has come we normalize our disproportionate response. The more we value our own citizens lives, the more others will start thinking about it. We also need to arrest internal dissidents who do not toe the line of the government against these terror setup conveniently setup to poke us whenever they want.

[Amber G.]

Kudos for this headline, ⁦@Newsweek possibly the only mainstream publication here to explicitly call out what this was: Jihadist attack on Hindu tourists.

Kashmir Massacre: Trump, Putin, Iran, Israel Condemn Jihadist Attack on Hindu Tourists

Meanwhile Despicable Wire had a post authored by one Jehangir Ali quotes an eyewitness of the attack from a video that went viral minutes after it was uploaded online.. misquoted the woman, saying that her husband was probably targeted for being a Muslim.

[Kakkaji]

Chenab river to Ranjit Sagar Lake on Ranjit Sagar Dam (on River Ravi) is only few Km's above and thus at least water of Chenab can be easily diverted.
Connect Ravi to Satluj and Satluj to dry river called Ghaggar (where one time River Saraswati use to flow down south to Rajasthan and dried up thousands of years ago). Ghaggar river is big empty river only flows in monsoon that goes down south from Himachal Hills, passes Chandigarh, Punjab, Haryana and into Rajasthan where it dries up.

Bajwa ji:
To divert Chenab water to Ranjit Sagar, won't it require building a dam on the Chenab, and a canal to link water in that dam to Ranjit Sagar? If so, it is not something that can be completed this year.

As far as diverting Sutlej water to Ghaggar, haven't ther been agitations in Punjab against diverting Sutlej water to other states? They stopped Sutlej water being diverted to Yamuna via the SYL canal.

The Ujh Project, that was meant to stop the Ravi waters from going to Pakistan has been pending approval for over a decade. The latest reports say it has been shelved on ground of economic viability.

https://www.dailyexcelsior.com/uncertai ... e-project/

I don't know how they can plug in a number to represent the benefit of stopping India's share of water under IWT from flowing into Pakistan. Does no one in GoI have the strategic vision to countermand the decision made by the bean counters in this case?

How much storage capacity does India have on Jhelum, Chenab, and Sindhu to impact Pakistan this summer season? Apart from Kishanganga, I don't think there is any big project that is complete. Ratle and Pakul Dul are still under construction I believe.

How about quickly building check dams, ponds, and lakes in the catchment areas of Jhelum, Chenab, and Sindhu that can store water and stop it from flowing to Pakistan?

I don't think much water can be prevented from flowing into Pakistan this summer, but every little bit helps.

A bigger impact can be caused by releasing water at the time when the rivers start flooding in Pakistan during the monsoon season.

[Manish_P]

..

Putting treaty on abeyance is one thing and it needs to be supplemented with redirecting of water that flows out of India.
What immediate option we have to stop that flow. Until then it's just a threat.

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/indu ... 250424.htm

Pradeep Kumar Saxena, who served as India's Indus Water Commissioner for over six years and has been associated with work related to the IWT, said India, as an upper riparian country, has multiple options.

Listing out the steps India could take, Saxena said in the absence of the treaty, India is under no obligation to follow the restrictions on the "reservoir flushing" of the Kishanganga reservoir and other projects on Western rivers in Jammu and Kashmir. The Indus Water Treaty currently prohibits it.

Flushing can help India desilt its reservoir but then filling the entire reservoir could take days. Under the treaty, reservoir filling after the flushing has to be done in August -- peak monsoon period -- but with the pact in abeyance, it could be done anytime. Doing it when sowing season begins in Pakistan could be detrimental especially when a large part of Punjab in Pakistan depends on the Indus and its tributaries for irrigation.

According to the treaty, there are design restrictions on building structures like dams on Indus and its tributaries. The objections may no longer be applicable for the new projects.

There are also operational restrictions on how reservoirs are to be filled and operated. With the treaty in abeyance, these are no longer applicable.

Saxena said India can stop sharing flood data on the rivers. This could also prove detrimental to Pakistan, especially during the monsoon when rivers swell.

[SSridhar]

In my opinion, India has abrogated the IWT even while making it look like it is only a suspension. The IWT has no provision for either suspension or abrogation by one party alone. India's suspension is therefore a huge challenge to TSP. Its 'jaguar vein' is being cut. TSP can take the issue to wherever it wants, but nothing much will happen. The World Bank has been completely short-circuited. In any case, its role was always limited. End of the matter.

As for diversion of water etc., that will be done over a period of time, running into. decades, and tactfully. There is no mechanism available for Pakistan to complain to and get any redressal after this IWT is gone.

[SwamyG]

The nation has moved along from the 80s,90s, and early 2000s. Thanks to good governance and actions of Modi team, the Overton Window has been pushed. I might add the country has crossed the Rubicon. Enough of metaphors from me. The point I want to highlight is normal people expect visible disproportionate response. Family members feel GoI is not doing enough, they are mollycoddling Muslims; while others feel PoK has to be taken back. I doubt they even want to think through their expectations. The shrinking globe, social media, 3 terms of Modi (with surgical strikes) have pivoted population to different levels. We have had greater toll than this one, sensational and visible attacks on Parliament and massacre of 26/11.

The World is different.

People, who care, now, demand visible and disproportionate response. The military guys obviously want nothing short of w military response. Tough job for the GoI. We can scream anything we want. This is a big moment for GoI and BJP as a party.

[sudeepj]

Diverting Chenab waters is a multi year if not a multi decade effort. A North-South tunnel/canal will have to be built crossing active plate boundaries. We need to kick off the engineering feasibility and environmental impact studies, which by themselves will take several years..

[Amber G.]

n Baramulla, heavy exchange of fire took place between the security forces and terrorists during the counter-infiltration operation launched on Tuesday night

2 terrorists killed in Baramulla in counter-infiltration operation launched after Pahalgam terror attack; IED, AK rifles, pistol and ammunition recovered

[Amber G.]

Encounter breaks out between terrorists and security forces in Dudu-Basantgarh area of Udhampur, Jammu & Kashmir.. Gunfight underway. More details are awaited.

[Hriday]

Shared by ramana_brf in X, post is by a private person. Any idea how much time to construct barrages near that place?
https://x.com/GundaAsli/status/19150871 ... Weffg&s=19

My father retired as Civil Engineer and he spent more than 10 years in Indus complex. The plans are already in place and barrages can be made in interim till bigger dams/reservoirs are made. Also, even if we hold water at 100% capacity at dams and reservoirs it will have major impact in summer.

Assam chief minister from BJP Himanta writes in his X handle, a must read..
https://x.com/himantabiswa/status/19151 ... -24_w&s=19

“Bharat Strikes Back’
Impact of Indus Waters Treaty Suspension on Pakistan
Background: The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)
Signed in 1960 and brokered by the World Bank, the Indus Waters Treaty is one of the most comprehensive water-sharing agreements globally. It allocates:
•Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India for unrestricted use.
•Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan, with India retaining limited rights for non-consumptive uses like hydropower and irrigation.
India has honored the treaty for over six decades.
On April 23, 2025, following the Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 civilians, India announced the suspension of the treaty, asserting that water cooperation cannot continue with a state supporting terrorism
1. Agricultural Impact
•Dependence: Over 90% of Pakistan’s agriculture relies on the Indus River system.
•Vulnerability: The Western Rivers irrigate approximately 21 million hectares.
•Quantified Loss:
•A 10–15% drop in water availability could lead to crop losses worth $2–3 billion/year.
•Wheat and rice yields, major export commodities, may decline by 15–20%, endangering food security for over 120 million people.
2. Energy Sector
•Hydropower Reliance: Around 30% of Pakistan’s electricity comes from hydropower, primarily generated at Tarbela, Mangla, and Neelum-Jhelum dams.
•Quantified Risk:
•Power generation loss: 2,000–3,000 MW, equal to 20–25% of grid capacity during high-flow periods.
•Economic impact: $1.5–2 billion/year due to load shedding, energy import costs, and industrial slowdown.
3. Urban Water Supply
•Cities Affected: Lahore, Multan, Faisalabad, Karachi, and others are highly dependent on Indus water.
•Quantified Risk:
•Over 40 million urban residents may face water scarcity, particularly during dry months.
•Emergency supply costs (e.g., tankers, desalination) could reach hundreds of millions annually
4. Economic and Strategic Cost
•GDP Dependence: Water-intensive sectors account for ~25% of Pakistan’s GDP.
•Overall Impact:
•Treaty suspension could reduce GDP by 1.5–2% annually if sustained.
•Inflation Risk: Food and energy prices may rise over 20%, triggering widespread economic distress.
5. Infrastructure Weakness
•Storage Capacity: Pakistan can store only 30 days’ worth of water; India stores up to 170 days.
•Implication: Seasonal fluctuations or controlled reductions by India could cause immediate shortages without fallback.
India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is a calibrated, lawful, and strategic measure aimed at compelling Pakistan to take responsibility for cross-border terrorism. This bold move marks a new era of assertive diplomacy where water security is aligned with national security.

A beginning has been made, Bharat will take it to its logical conclusion. Pakistan must understand that this is the New India.

[Dilbu]

Taliban Government of Afghanistan condemns the Pahalgam terror attack in Kashmir by the Pakistani terrorists.

Hmm.. may be I am reading this wrong. Looks like they have conveniently not mentioned India in this message and have addressed J&K as a separate region.

[Amber G.]

^^^ No you are not reading it wrong...a few (Notably not USA, France, Russia or major nations clearly used India.. rags like nytimes and a few countries hit the fact and used 'Gunman' killed tourists in Kashmir.. etc..We have noted that...

Meanwhile ..Canada condemns Pahalgam terror attack: From Mark Carney:

I am horrified by the terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir, a senseless and shocking act of violence that has killed and injured innocent civilians and tourists.

Canada strongly condemns this terrorist attack. We offer our condolences to the victims and their families.

FACTS are lacking in this:
1. The Incident Happened in India which is missing here.
2. Hindus were killed after their religious identity was verified by Islamist Terrorist (By the time he were 'horrified', the terrorists had already been identified)..
UTTERLY SAHMELESS ... ,

[Amber G.]

I like the new found honesty in USA's House Foreign Affairs Committee Majority .

Hey, @nytimes we fixed it for you. This was a TERRORIST ATTACK plain and simple.


Whether it’s India or Israel, when it comes to TERRORISM the NYT is removed from reality.

[Deans]

Many people in X are commenting that the abeyance of IWT is like a declaration of all-out war or nuclear strike. They point out that even in the three major wars between India and Pakistan, this treaty was not touched due to its extreme sensitivity. VatsRohit said that Pakistan gets half of its water due to this treaty and the abeyance will cause an earthquake in Pakistan society. But he pointed out that no infrastructure exists to implement the abeyance. In Quora, it is said that building dams to divert the rivers is very expensive.

Citing the above reasons, several people say that now there is no need for a war.

I have written on the unfairness of the IWY back in 2016.
https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2023/07/wa ... reaty.html

The first thing I posted on Linkedin after the attack, was that India should abrogate (not suspend) the IWT.
As a consequence of that, complete the Kshenganga project the way we wanted to without Pakistan's intervention. Complete the Tulbul
project and start work on a canal, or system to move water from the Chenab to the Ravi.
You don't need to do anything more.

[Deans]

Chenab river to Ranjit Sagar Lake on Ranjit Sagar Dam (on River Ravi) is only few Km's above and thus at least water of Chenab can be easily diverted.
Connect Ravi to Satluj and Satluj to dry river called Ghaggar (where one time River Saraswati use to flow down south to Rajasthan and dried up thousands of years ago). Ghaggar river is big empty river only flows in monsoon that goes down south from Himachal Hills, passes Chandigarh, Punjab, Haryana and into Rajasthan where it dries up.

This is a fantastic plan. It may require us to spend several billion dollars, but it will put an end to Pak mischief. Do not suspend IWT, withdraw from the IWT. And take up these plans on a war footing.

Yes, this is more ambitious than what I described. The starting point is the diversion of the Chenab water,
We should also relocate highly polluting industries - leather and chemicals away from the Ganga, to the Sutlej in Jammu close to the border, so that
the polluted water flows into Pak and saves us the water treatment costs.

[drnayar]

Dissolve the state government and bring back governors rule.

[RCase]

The first thing I posted on Linkedin after the attack, was that India should abrogate (not suspend) the IWT.

If you noted the MEA's statement, the IWT was in abeyance TILL Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism.

That is a tall ask from Terroristan, where terrorism is so inured in its DNA. It will be like the UN resolutions that is oft quoted by the Pakis, wherein they are unable to fulfill the first and necessary clause. What is the threshold for 'credible' and 'irrevocable'? A few years pass by and as you had mentioned, India continues to build out its waterworks and the rest is fait accompli. It is time for a new normal. Pretty much the IWT is abrogated and the 'abeyance' is diplomatic fig leaf. It will be the same way that article 370 is no longer brought up at the drop of a hat.

[chetak]

In my opinion, India has abrogated the IWT even while making it look like it is only a suspension. The IWT has no provision for either suspension or abrogation by one party alone. India's suspension is therefore a huge challenge to TSP. Its 'jaguar vein' is being cut. TSP can take the issue to wherever it wants, but nothing much will happen. The World Bank has been completely short-circuited. In any case, its role was always limited. End of the matter.

As for diversion of water etc., that will be done over a period of time, running into. decades, and tactfully. There is no mechanism available for Pakistan to complain to and get any redressal after this IWT is gone.

sirji,


the world bank's role was and is advisory at best and self serving at worst. It has no real locus standi and it's pronouncements are not legally or otherwise binding on India, even though the amrikis and the pakis may like to pretend otherwise.

It's role is like that of a small time politician who attends a neighbourhood wedding, such an exercise is more for burnishing the politician's halo than to benefit the bride, groom and their families. Often such politicos demand payment to "attend" such events, just like Indian cricketers and bollywood actors who get paid to "grace" page 3 events

neverwho was a dyed in the wool imperialist, one who would have been mightily impressed with such empty pomp and hollow pageantry and promptly signed on the dotted like and gave away the fresh water wealth of future generations of Indians

Treaty implications

From the Indus System of Rivers, India got nearly 41 billion m3 at 16%, whereas, pakistan got nearly 218 billion m3 at 84%.

This useless body was brought in by the amrikis to impart some sort of legitimacy to what was essentially a grand theft of India's waters, by awarding the pakis a hugely disproportionate share of the Indus river system waters, to better serve their geopolitical imperatives as it existed then in this region including the gulf

the man was more that eager to jump into the deep pit that the amrikis and the pakis had dug for him

the dangling mirage of the nobel was something that deeply motivated him and that was something that the goras used very effectively to "motivate" him and ghundhy, but did not give it either of them and therein lies a lesson for Indian politicos

[RCase]

^^^
When Trump can impose tariffs by declaring 'very unfair, ripping us off etc.', India can use the same pretext that the water sharing was 'very unfair', 'Pakistan was ripping us off...' To hell with the World Bank.

[Dilbu]

What India’s Indus Waters Treaty suspension means for Pakistan

One common question that arises in moments like this is whether India can simply “stop the flow” of water into Pakistan. In the immediate term, the short answer is no. Certainly not at the scale that would make a meaningful dent in flows during the high flow season.

The Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab are enormous rivers. Between May and September, as snow melts, these rivers carry tens of billions of cubic meters of water. India has some upstream infrastructure on these rivers, including the Baglihar and Kishanganga dams, but none of it is designed to hold back these kinds of volumes. These are run-of-the-river hydropower projects with very limited live storage. Even if India were to coordinate releases across all its existing dams, all it may be able to do is slightly shift the timing of flows.

The overall volumes in the western rivers during this high-flow period are far too large to meaningfully disrupt without flooding its own upstream regions. India already utilises most of the flow from the eastern rivers allocated to it under the treaty, so any new actions on those rivers would have a more limited downstream impact.

A more pressing concern is what happens in the dry season when the flows across the basin are lower, storage matters more, and timing becomes more critical. That is where the absence of treaty constraints could start to be felt more acutely.

Over the medium to longer term, the picture becomes more complicated. If India chooses to act outside the treaty framework, it opens the door to developing new infrastructure that would give it greater control over the timing and volume of flows into Pakistan. But even then, the path is far from straightforward. Any large-scale dam or diversion project would take years to build. The sites available in Indian-occupied Kashmir for significant water storage are limited and geologically challenging. The financial cost would be enormous. And the political risk would be even greater.

Pakistan has long said that any attempt by India to construct major new storage on the western rivers would be viewed as an act of war. In today’s age of satellites, these structures would not be invisible. They would be contested politically and possibly militarily.

There are also hydrological constraints. Holding back high flows on rivers like the Chenab or Jhelum risks flooding upstream regions in India itself. And the idea of diverting water out of the Indus Basin entirely, into other parts of India would require enormous infrastructure and energy costs that would be hard to justify, even in peacetime.

For Pakistan, the impact of India’s disruption (if manifested) could be far-reaching. Pakistan’s irrigation system is one of the largest in the world, and it depends almost entirely on the predictable timing of flows from the western rivers. Farmers plan their sowing around those flows. Canal schedules are designed based on assumptions that have held for decades. If that rhythm is even slightly disrupted, the water system will begin to fray.

The most immediate risk is to predictability. Even if the total volume of water coming into Pakistan does not change immediately, small changes in when that water arrives can cause real problems. A late-season delay during the wheat planting cycle, or an unexpected dip in flow during the dry winter months, can mean missed sowing windows, lower yields, and higher costs. The Indus Delta is already shrinking due to reduced freshwater outflows. Further uncertainty in upstream flows could accelerate that degradation, with consequences for coastal livelihoods and fisheries.

Any shortfall or shift in river timing will force the state to make hard choices about water allocation. This risks intensifying inter-provincial tensions, especially between Punjab and Sindh, where water-sharing debates are already politically charged.

Then there’s energy. A third of Pakistan’s electricity comes from hydropower, generated by water flowing through Tarbela, Mangla, and other reservoirs. If upstream flows are reduced or poorly timed, it could cut into generation capacity. None of this is speculative. Pakistan is already a water-scarce country, living close to the edge. A system that has long been run on thin margins now faces a new layer of uncertainty.

This most recent announcement that India would “suspend” its obligations under the treaty marks the culmination of a long, escalating trajectory. For the first time since 1960, one country has effectively stepped outside the treaty’s procedural and cooperative framework. Whether this is a negotiating tactic or a permanent break remains to be seen. What comes next will test not just bilateral diplomacy, but the resilience of Pakistan’s water system in a world where guarantees no longer hold.

The Indus Waters Treaty is not perfect. But it does something few agreements between adversaries manage to do. It keeps the rivers flowing and gives both countries a reason to keep talking, even when everything else has broken down. That framework is now under strain. Whether the treaty is reinstated in full, renegotiated, or left to fade in practice, what follows will be harder.

Without clear rules, even small projects can provoke mistrust. Every monsoon, every reservoir, every dry spell becomes a potential source of tension. At a time when climate change is already intensifying droughts and floods, and when both countries face rising domestic water stress, the last thing the region needs is another layer of uncertainty. Yet that is where we now find ourselves.

The western rivers are not just shared rivers. They are Pakistan’s primary source of water. In the long run, there may be reforms or alternatives. But in the here and now, there is no substitute. These rivers sustain lives, livelihoods, and landscapes across the country. Pakistan can simply not afford to let it become collateral in a political fight. Thus, the flows must continue. Not out of goodwill, but because the consequences of stopping them are too great for either country to bear.