Pahalgam Terror Attack: News & Discussion

[A_Gupta]

If Open Source Intelligence dries up, and Pakistani travelers, diplomats, etc., are expelled, then Pakistan will have to activate its sleeper cells and give India's agencies a chance to unearth them.

Therefore, I really really hope that no one talks about even their relative's deployment or transfer, even in their sleep, if that relative is in the security forces.

[A Deshmukh]

ABV believed that he could make peace with the Pakis. Perhaps post Kargil his mind might have changed. However he also took the decision to not cross the LoC during Kargil

A lot of factors at play then.
We were not as powerful as we are today.
We had just tested nukes. The world was against nukes.
Chin and US were in tango. Clintons (anti-India) ruled the US.
Crossing the LOC would have been a trap for us - to escalate matters further with the goal that India and TSP both need to be de-nuked.

We did not walk into that trap. at a painful price of losing more soldiers.
Hard decision.

[ramana]

Meteor has shaken their confidence and they need a psy-ops mijjile to convince their gullible citizens, that they still have the upper hand.

Thus enter the non-export variant of the PL-15. Pakis are masters at psy ops and we fall for it, time and time again.

The Chinese are equally adept at lying. Everything they claim is suspect.

They can slap a sausage and think its Moby

[suryag]

Bababanaras and bolebaba handles reporting some ongoing strike

[nachiket]

ABV believed that he could make peace with the Pakis. Perhaps post Kargil his mind might have changed. However he also took the decision to not cross the LoC during Kargil

A lot of factors at play then.
We were not as powerful as we are today.
We had just tested nukes. The world was against nukes.
Chin and US were in tango. Clintons (anti-India) ruled the US.
Crossing the LOC would have been a trap for us - to escalate matters further with the goal that India and TSP both need to be de-nuked.

We did not walk into that trap. at a painful price of losing more soldiers.
Hard decision.

Doesn't change the fact that we had been invaded. In 1965 the power differential was a lot smaller and in some important areas (e.g. armour) the pakis had superiority. Shastri ji still took the decision to go on the offensive in Punjab.

In 1999, the IAF superiority over the PAF was at its peak. It has only gone down since then. The PAF had no BVR capability, we did. Kaiser Tufail points this out in his blog about the PAF in Kargil. Their F-16's were their only good aircraft when it came to air defence and they were under US sanctions at the time. They had to even reduce their defensive sorties because they feared running out of spares. And had those Sidewinder armed F-16's gone up against R-27 and Super-530D armed Mig-29's and Mirage-2000's, it would have ended badly for them. Kaiser Tufail mentions that concern as well. This was true during Parakram too. I weep when I look at how we have allowed our significant aerial edge to erode over the last 25 years due to bad planning, a terrible acquisitions process, and stinginess in spending money for both domestic R&D and procurement of weapons.

[Amber G.]

S. Jaishankar, the Foreign Minister, has always given on-point and robust responses.


I liked his response to an Austrian anchor who questioned his usage of the phrase “epicentre of terrorism” for Pakistan...

Just because I’m a diplomat doesn’t mean I can’t be truthful...

”

[drnayar]

The amount of ground level support the terrorists had is astonishing..pretty sure this is only the beginning!..the state government is just making noises but supporting the pakis in real time.. how were the terrorists able to sneak away so adeptly ?!.

The main problem is inside.. the border firings are a distraction

[chetak]

A lot of factors at play then.
We were not as powerful as we are today.
We had just tested nukes. The world was against nukes.
Chin and US were in tango. Clintons (anti-India) ruled the US.
Crossing the LOC would have been a trap for us - to escalate matters further with the goal that India and TSP both need to be de-nuked.

We did not walk into that trap. at a painful price of losing more soldiers.
Hard decision.

Doesn't change the fact that we had been invaded. In 1965 the power differential was a lot smaller and in some important areas (e.g. armour) the pakis had superiority. Shastri ji still took the decision to go on the offensive in Punjab.

In 1999, the IAF superiority over the PAF was at its peak. It has only gone down since then. The PAF had no BVR capability, we did. Kaiser Tufail points this out in his blog about the PAF in Kargil. Their F-16's were their only good aircraft when it came to air defence and they were under US sanctions at the time. They had to even reduce their defensive sorties because they feared running out of spares. And had those Sidewinder armed F-16's gone up against R-27 and Super-530D armed Mig-29's and Mirage-2000's, it would have ended badly for them. Kaiser Tufail mentions that concern as well. This was true during Parakram too. I weep when I look at how we have allowed our significant aerial edge to erode over the last 25 years due to bad planning, a terrible acquisitions process, and stinginess in spending money for both domestic R&D and procurement of weapons.

nachiket ji,


what makes you think that it was bad planning and if it was, then, who was responsible


when the not so saintly andhoni said that the intention not to build vital roads and infrastructure along the borders was a deliberate plan because that was the best defence against any chinese invasion, the traitor was lying through his teeth, and his lies rank right up there with the useless explanation of "not a blade of grass grows there"


at another time, this joker said that there was no money


but no one asked him why and what happened to the money because this buffoon criminally returned huge amounts of unspent defence money back to the govt, where it was, by design, immediately repurposed to cultivate vote banks


It was a deliberate attempt to weaken the forces because by that time the BIF gang was already beginning to hit their stride


BTW, about 50 crores was paid to sweeten the deal for the Sukhoi sale and does anyone know who grabbed it


There is a consistent gameplan to weaken the rashtra right from 1947 and one family has played its evil part all through these years including today where dimwit is bashing on regardless about caste census which was deliberately buried from neverwho to IG to RG bur he needs to do it because of the orders from the BIF


for dimwit, mossad supported adani became a very hot potato, as did savarkar after the SC observations, so his feeble attentions have recently shifted to bad mouthing the election commission in foreign lands


in KAR, two powerful caste formations that are usually at loggerheads have now united to sabotage the new caste survey, as the old one was criminally fudged by the jihadis to show themselves as being at a much higher percentage of the population than they actually are


So, nachiket ji, for the forces it has never been about a failure to plan, it was and always has been about the politicos planning to fail, and our jernails, all want to become governors, and ambassadors, and hence they always come to heel, fall in line, and stay in their lane, because in the first place, they became jernails only because they could all read the direction of the prevailing winds


line and length has always been their mool mantra, They can only suggest and very very rarely do they demand. Look at how the IA's artillery deal was sabotaged almost for a decade or more, and yet it took Modi ji only a few months to seal the deal


Look at what that biatch and her house niggers, the babooze and the jernails, did to Sam Bahadur, or go back in history and see how neverwho publicly shafted Gen Thimmaiah



look again at what they, the politicos, babooze and the jernails, did to Col Purohit, not to forget Gen Sunderji, or even Gen VK Singh



To push their BIF agenda they simply cannot afford to have nationally respected and institutionally strong Armed forces which might feel compelled to step in at any time if the internal security situation gets out of hand to prevent a beedi like situation from developing



If we were really short of funds, we could have, over the years, still built up the forces, brick by brick, bullet by bullet but the intent was never to build, it was always only to weaken



After Modi ji arrived on the scene, there is a dramatic shift in intent and in content of the efforts of the state, a reconfiguration of the security ecosystem and a new thrust to safeguard the national environment that nurtures economic, social and agri sectors, and the growth of the domestic manufacturing capacities and capabilities among other priorities in the home grown defence production industry that is doing good with exports as well



This growth and allied infrastructure expansion has left the pakis and the cheen more than just a little upset

[uddu]

https://x.com/ANI/status/1917098585117634767
@ANI
Intense counter-terrorism operations are underway at various places in J&K. No specific updates are being shared as of now: Sources tell ANI

[uddu]

https://x.com/MrSinha_/status/1916830660456497575
@MrSinha_
Another horrific footage of #PahalgamTerroristAttack.

A man from Ahmedabad had recorded it unknowingly... He wasn't even aware of what was happening on the ground...

[Hriday]

https://x.com/Zoomerjeet/status/1917112 ... R5oiA&s=19


The above X handle is followed by several well known OSINT handles in X.
I searched in the Dawn website, but can't find the article. But print version will contain more exclusive and premium content. So the many reports of resignation and resentment in military could be true.

Also I don't see much coverage about the secessionist activities inside Pakistan by other OSINT and media. May be it is a common sight.

https://x.com/NepCorres/status/19167588 ... K3HOg&s=19

𝐒𝐈𝐍𝐃𝐇 𝐔𝐏𝐃𝐀𝐓𝐄: More than 7000 trucks laden with export goods from #Pakistan are stranded due to the ongoing protests in #Sindh. Protestors including children have attacked vehicles of occupational forces of Pakistan. Demand for INDEPENDENCE is intensifying.

Code: Select all

𝐁𝐑𝐄𝐀𝐊𝐈𝐍𝐆: Mass protests erupt in #GilgitBaltistan against Punjabi Mafia occupying public property. Considering weak military situation of #PakArmy, residents of GB are also demanding Independence.

[nits]

Some of X handles stating; action has started in parts of J&K; but again thats just claim in air with no official confirmation...

Wait and watch

[Hriday]

https://x.com/Zoomerjeet/status/1917112 ... R5oiA&s=19


[/code]

I tried with three websites to detect if the above image is fake, one said it looks like fake. The other two sites give a 77 and 98 percent probability of genuinity. But to me image looks fake, any comments?

[Hriday]

Some interesting snippets from the X handle Sniper, suggesting to follow his pinned thread which gets updated continuously,

https://x.com/avarakai/status/191713691 ... R5SIw&s=19

Few #observations that am still trying to understand.

Nawaz has spoken to Shahbaz, according to news reports. Told Shaahbaz to pipe down or get minced.

Then, Shahbaz issues gag orders to ministers to not speak out of turn.

Thug asim munir told to shut up, by Ishaq Dar.

1/3
Few days ago, there were unconfirmed reports of civil - military tussle had begun.

IF all of the above are true, are we looking at an isolation & decimation of paxtani military jihadi complex by political establishment - with Indian support.

2/3
...
Further, does the political establishment, already seeing division of paxtan?

Is this the reason why they started disputing water to Sindh?

Is this the reason why Bilawal is making frail attempts to link Sindh's anti-canal protests to India?

Only time will tell.

3/3

40. One of the key indicators for a conventional war to begin is to have the paramilitary forces under Army. Coast Guard under Navy.

This meeting might lead to that in a few days or coming weeks.

As per news from ANI,

#WATCH | A high-level meeting begins in the Ministry of Home Affairs. Those present in the meeting include Union Home Secretary Govind Mohan, Director Generals of Border Security Force, Assam Rifles and National Security Guard; senior officials of Central Reserve Police Force, Sashastra Seema Bal and the Central Industrial Security Force.

Visuals from outside the MHA as they arrive for the meeting.

[Deans]

India may have also desilted or flushed out debris that was affecting / reducing it's own dam storage capacity. This flushing, if actually done, would have improved India's own storage capacity of whichever Indian dam is involved

What if we have done Reservoir flushing to remove accumulated sediments from a reservoir or dam. This will push sediments to Paki dam reducing there capacity and increasing our dam capacity.

Thank you. Wasn't aware that such a flushing was a thing.

Flushing is the easiest way to quickly use more Indus water and hurt Pak,

Where flushing is not allowed (Ratle dam) enable flushing, which increases our dam capacity.
Where it is allowed, do it without informing Pak, to cause flooding.

[Deans]

I have not seen any video of India mobilising troops.
Troop movement when it happens cannot be kept under wraps when everyone has a camera phone & cheap data plans.

However there are enough videos of Pak mobilising Self propelled artillery & tree top helicopters practising.

Assuming that Modi govt is not interested in immediate military response over land, there still needs to be a counter mobilisation to balance Paki deployments.

What am I missing? Why are we not even countering Pak moving its formations forward?

The formations on either side of the border, have been the same for decades.
Each side knows how the other will deploy and the time frame.
Each side knows where the strike corps of the other side is and weather it is moving towards the border. Any sleeper agent at a railway
station, or satellite intel will give that info.
A battalion commander on the LOC probably knows the birthday of his counterpart.

Chill, the army knows what to do.

[Rakesh]

https://x.com/ShivAroor/status/1917213306559119788 ---> Sources on PM meet with the 3 armed forces chiefs: PM affirmed that it is our national resolve to deal a crushing blow to terrorism. PM expressed complete faith and confidence in the professional abilities of the Indian Armed Forces. PM said that they have complete operational freedom to decide on the mode, targets, and timing of our response.

https://x.com/VishnuNDTV/status/1917189916662063472 ---> The PM holds a key security meeting with the Defence Minister, the National Security Advisor, the Chief of Defence Staff and the Service Chiefs.

[Manish_P]

https://x.com/ANI/status/1917098585117634767
@ANI
Intense counter-terrorism operations are underway at various places in J&K. No specific updates are being shared as of now: Sources tell ANI

Call me psychotic but when such a terrorist attack occurs our side should immediately (within few hours) take the opportunity to eliminate the OGWs in the area. And put the blame on the terrorists.

Use our SF units and the guns and ammo captured from the terrorists in earlier ops.

Then run pys-ops campaign saying they were eliminated by the Pakis in Indian uniforms so that we couldn't use them to prove the link to pakistan

[williams]

Try zooming into PM's look. It is pretty scary!! Something big will happen soon. Paki's are in for a brutal smacking and life lesson

[bala]

Dealing with the Pukes must be done on a unconventional basis. All analysis based on traditional armed forces projection is not the point. India needs to come up with something different like IWT abeyance. This orthogonal thinking puts a spanner into traditional thinking. The Pukes are well covered by China. Any deficit the pukes have the chinese will augment at a moment's notice. To defeat such support, India can engage in a strategy of depletion/exhaustion of PA. Engage in multi pronged exercises close to the border in various areas, making the PA rush endlessly here and there, guessing and wasting their precious resources. Increase support for BLA/Sindh/NWF and keep the PA under harassing conditions. Eventually the PA will fold exhausted and may be the BLA / Sindh etc will win more areas. India does not engage, but merely postures with power. If indeed the IA finds a weak opening then a quick incursion into Puke territory maybe warranted. Hasten the break up of Puke land and demoralize their PA/ISI.

[SRajesh]

Bhailog : A question
Do you think this Pahalgam attack :
1. Hamas/Turkiye plan
2. But more importantly Chinese plan originally
The reason I am asking is because it has the Hallmark of Hamas October Attack.
Secondly remember there was a request from Xi for Dragon/Elephant Tango in the midst of Trumpwa's Tariff war
There was no response from us for this request!!
Given the Tariff wars and Production chaos in Mainland is this Chin plan all the way

[KL Dubey]

I moved this reply by "Jay" from the IAF thread and am responding here.

Koschan: is extensive use of IAF fighters really needed in the early stages of a conflict with Paastan?

PAF infrastructure seems very vulnerable to destruction with missiles or artillery. Their air force may not be able to get off the ground effectively.

In an actual war, yes, we may pound their infra first and destroy as much as we can on the ground. But in a limited skirmish, we may not use missiles or artillery on their air bases.

I personally think the time for "brawls" and "skirmishes" with the Pawkees is over. What is the point in needlessly wasting our military resources to deliver a punch that isn't a knock-out. The Pawkees are never going to improve.

Instead our armed forces could launch a large-scale mission.

Before that, we can bring them to the brink of collapse (or even complete collapse) by various means:

- Restrict water (already started)
- Go all in on support to internal outfits such as BLA/BRA/TTP/SLA
- Support Afghan action on the durand line
- Blockade of all maritime trade
- Impose no fly zone over Pak
- Cyberwarfare to cripple infrastructure (internet/telecom/industrial/power grid)
- Propaganda to precipitate mass rebellions/riots

[williams]

Bhailog : A question
Do you think this Pahalgam attack :
1. Hamas/Turkiye plan
2. But more importantly Chinese plan originally
The reason I am asking is because it has the Hallmark of Hamas October Attack.
Secondly remember there was a request from Xi for Dragon/Elephant Tango in the midst of Trumpwa's Tariff war
There was no response from us for this request!!
Given the Tariff wars and Production chaos in Mainland is this Chin plan all the way

It should be pure and pure Paki plan with some help from others. Pakis can and have displayed same brutality as Hamas. In any case as someone mentioned, if we can kill/maime the fountain head which is the Paki army, everything else will fall in place. Further we need to network with Israel and the friendly middle eastern players to keep the Islamists in check. But right now Pakis need to be dealt with in a way it is the beginning of their end as a Islamic power in this region.

[Hriday]

So, the Modi government gave a free hand to the armed forces to strike Pakistan. A limited strike can be done now. If there is a plan for a prolonged fight to capture lands in the plains, that would be better done in winter, around December. It is mentioned here in the forum that in winter, the Chinese will have a hard time conducting an invasion, so a coordinated strike by Pakistan and China can be avoided.

Also many in the forum are complaining that the Modi govt hadn't invested sufficiently in defence. But one area that can be said to be satisfactory is the larger ammunition stocks India built up from the start of the Modi govt. IIRC, we revised the ammunition stock rules upwards and presently have around over two months worth of stock of ammunition. Is that correct?

[williams]

Indus river system - Jhelum, Sutlej, Ravi, Chenab, Beas with animation

Very good description of the rivers and the dams related to the current context. My blood boils to think our so called fore fathers gave away the key piece of our civilization to be radicalized and Islamized in 1947 after so much of blood shed to gain our independence. Brits should have had the last laugh when they left us.

[Arima]

So, the Modi government gave a free hand to the armed forces to strike Pakistan. A limited strike can be done now. If there is a plan for a prolonged fight to capture lands in the plains, that would be better done in winter, around December. It is mentioned here in the forum that in winter, the Chinese will have a hard time conducting an invasion, so a coordinated strike by Pakistan and China can be avoided.

Also many in the forum are complaining that the Modi govt hadn't invested sufficiently in defence. But one area that can be said to be satisfactory is the larger ammunition stocks India built up from the start of the Modi govt. IIRC, we revised the ammunition stock rules upwards and presently have around over two months worth of stock of ammunition. Is that correct?

some form of land capture need to be done to make them kneel in negotiating table. if they want water never dispute Kashmir and no more jihad business.

[nachiket]

I personally think the time for "brawls" and "skirmishes" with the Pawkees is over. What is the point in needlessly wasting our military resources to deliver a punch that isn't a knock-out. The Pawkees are never going to improve.

Instead our armed forces could launch a large-scale mission.

Before that, we can bring them to the brink of collapse (or even complete collapse) by various means:

- Restrict water (already started)
- Go all in on support to internal outfits such as BLA/BRA/TTP/SLA
- Support Afghan action on the durand line
- Blockade of all maritime trade
- Impose no fly zone over Pak
- Cyberwarfare to cripple infrastructure (internet/telecom/industrial/power grid)
- Propaganda to precipitate mass rebellions/riots

KL Dubey I am moving your post to this thread from TSP thread since we are discussing possible military responses to the attack here.

I've seen this comment about imposing a no-fly zone over Pakistan made casually a few times. Here's what that would actually look like.

First you would have to launch round the clock IAF sorties to intercept and shoot down any aircraft flying in paki airspace.

Second, you would need to bomb every airfield they have to take out air assets on the ground and crater the runways (and keep them that way) bearing in mind their bases are well-equipped with hardened aircraft shelters and multiple runways.

Third, you would need to launch as many DEAD sorties to destroy (not just suppress) every single SAM site they have available to allow our jets to operate effectively.

Now you tell me how this is not a "large-scale" mission leaving aside the near-impossibility of actually achieving this without horrendous attrition? I think people get carried away with this term no-fly zone a lot because of how relatively easy it was for NATO to achieve it over countries like Iraq over whom they had an unbelievable overmatch in every respect.

[sanjaykumar]

Looks like things are going to go exothermic.

Remember war like terrorism has no religion.

[Y I Patel]

Very interesting how GoI signaling about kinetic action is evolving

[Rakesh]

PM Gives Forces 'Full Operational Freedom' To Respond To J&K Attack: Sources
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/key-sec ... nt-8286819
29 April 2025

The meeting comes a day before the PM-led Cabinet Committee on Security, the government's highest decision-making body on national security, is to meet for a second time in seven days.

[Y I Patel]

Very interesting how GoI signaling about kinetic action is evolving

Nitin Gokhle, one of our most respected National Security analysts, is wondering about the same messaging:

https://x.com/nitingokhale/status/1917200965163270599

[KL Dubey]

KL Dubey I am moving your post to this thread from TSP thread since we are discussing possible military responses to the attack here.

I've seen this comment about imposing a no-fly zone over Pakistan made casually a few times. Here's what that would actually look like.

First you would have to launch round the clock IAF sorties to intercept and shoot down any aircraft flying in paki airspace.

Second, you would need to bomb every airfield they have to take out air assets on the ground and crater the runways (and keep them that way) bearing in mind their bases are well-equipped with hardened aircraft shelters and multiple runways.

Third, you would need to launch as many DEAD sorties to destroy (not just suppress) every single SAM site they have available to allow our jets to operate effectively.

Now you tell me how this is not a "large-scale" mission leaving aside the near-impossibility of actually achieving this without horrendous attrition? I think people get carried away with this term no-fly zone a lot because of how relatively easy it was for NATO to achieve it over countries like Iraq over whom they had an unbelievable overmatch in every respect.

Thanks for the discussion.

What I meant was an effective "no-fly zone" for civilian commercial aircraft headed into Paastan - meant to cripple the Paastan economy further in a way similar to the maritime commercial blockade. Let the Paks operate their military aircraft within their airspace, thereby shortening their life further.

So, this would not take much effort, if I understand correctly. Most commercial aircraft and ships are already tracked, and very few operators will take the risk anyway once notified. Some smaller aircraft might slip through, but that's likely not important.

Obviously, using our assets full time in enforcing military no-fly zones is by itself a large-scale mission and there is no reason to do that right now.

[Y I Patel]

One of the terrorists involved was an ex PA commando. This changes things:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 709449.cms

[Amber G.]

Pak FM Dar acknowledges Islamabad's support to LeT’s proxy TRF as he confirms that the country got the terror group's name removed from the UNSC statement condemning the Pahalgam terror attack. (Pak is a member of UN security council at present - with China as permanent member as support)

[Amber G.]

News Report:
Pakistan violates ceasefire at international border in Jammu

[Amber G.]

---On Diplomatic front:
Pakistan FM Ishaq Dar spoke to 4 FMs
Bahrain FM Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani
Kuwait FM Abdullah Ali Al-Yahya
Hungary FM Péter Szijjártó
UAE FM Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan
--
(All these FM's talked to Dr Jaishankar first.)

Meanwhile EAM Dr S Jaishankar speaks to 9 Foreign ministers
-Cyprus FM Constantinos Kombos
-UAE FM AB Zayed
-UN SG Antonio Guterres

Non Permanent UNSC Members
Sierra Leone FM Tim Kabba
Algeria FM Ahmed Attaf
Panama FM Javier Martínez-Acha Vásquez
Greece FM George Gerapetritis (Prez of UNSC for May month)
Guyana FM Hugh Hilton Todd
Slovenia FM Tanja Fajon
Somalia FM Abdisalam Abdi Ali

---
Cyprus FM extends support to India -

Cordial call with #India’s Minister of External Affairs @DrSJaishankar.

I expressed our full solidarity with India against terrorism, following the #PahalgamTerrorAttack.

[partha]

Paki ambassador to Russia requested a meeting with Russians and got a meeting with Deputy FM and managed to put out a "observe restraint" statement. The way I read this is that Pakis are in panic mode and are scrambling to get other countries to influence India to stop any retaliation. A couple of days back, Pakis were officially saying Saudi and China are working on de-escalating the situation. Now they are pleading Russians thinking India may listen to Russia. Pakis clearly bit off more than they could chew.

[Amber G.]

^^^China again calls India, Pakistan to exercise restraint after the Pahalgam terror attack:

[Amber G.]

Diplomatic front:
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres expresses 'deep concern at rising tensions between India and Pakistan' after talks with EAM Jaishankar & Pak PM. Offers his 'Good Offices to support de-escalation efforts'


EAM Dr S Jaishankar tells UN SG António Guterres: (bluntly)

"India is resolved that the perpetrators, planners and backers of this attack are brought to justice

",

[Amber G.]

Diplomatic front:

India will have our support, UK govt in Parliament after MP Bob Blackman raises Pahalgam terror attack, terming it an 'islamist' attack

Meanwhile: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov:

We support India, Brazil as permanent members of the UNSC!

Guyana Envoy Guyana H CIndia Dharamkumar on Pahalgam terror attack

Our President supports India in whatever moves they are going to make.."
...we respect every country's right for protection of the citizens"
..Name of was mentioned"