Pahalgam Terror Attack: News & Discussion

[Manish_P]

Sure it did in paper. ...

So not 'no objective'.

...
But there were complexities with in the politico-diplomatic establishment.
...

And there are none now? But yes it is a fact that the BJP is the more dominant partner in the NDA than it was then. And our economic situation today is much better and for the pakis it is much worse.

Basically, Islamic armies will shoot first and then use civilians as human shield. They will then appeal to the liberal minds to spare them. Israelis understand this very well and that is why they care less about collateral damage. That was one of the cited reasons that the political leadership hesitated that time for immediate action.

So basically no change then and now.

[Manish_P]

..For the first time, people in Kashmore are realizing that the terrorism unleashed by ASim Munir PA and its LeT henchmen are disgusting blatant terrorism killing innocents...

Perhaps but it is more likely that they are seeing the current conditions of Pakistan and know which side of the bread is buttered (and has cheaper Atta).

... Even those Puke residents in India don't want to go back to Puke land...

QED

[Ashokk]

https://x.com/detresfa_/status/1918122812172321137

More notifications coming out of Pakistan now, multiple air traffic routes unavailable north & south, additional naval exercises in the Arabian Sea

[nishant.gupta]

They are really on tenterhooks. Since Bharat is not doing anything, they have decided to do things by themselves.

[Manish_P]

They are really on tenterhooks. Since Bharat is not doing anything, they have decided to do things by themselves.

[williams]

Sure it did in paper. ...

So not 'no objective'.

...
But there were complexities with in the politico-diplomatic establishment.
...

And there are none now? But yes it is a fact that the BJP is the more dominant partner in the NDA than it was then. And our economic situation today is much better and for the pakis it is much worse.

Basically, Islamic armies will shoot first and then use civilians as human shield. They will then appeal to the liberal minds to spare them. Israelis understand this very well and that is why they care less about collateral damage. That was one of the cited reasons that the political leadership hesitated that time for immediate action.

So basically no change then and now.

I did not say it, but the then CSC Admiral Sushil kumar stated that during Op Parakram there were no clear political or military objectives.

We don't have many of such politico-diplomatic complexities right now. We have the full backing of the US and many other countries including the Afghans. GoI CCS and the Cabinet has no disagreements and the fact that they are ready to pause IWT, destroy the houses of the terrorists and cancel Pakistani Visas tells me they will stomach collateral damage and causalities if needed. Opposition has provided support given that they are seeing the general public is outraged, I would say everything is different now compared to 2001. Ny depiction will be Pakis will get gobsmacked with the harsh punishment meted to them this time

[Y. Kanan]

I honestly dont think India will do any military action at this time. IMO this is a hit by China and is testing our response.

Agreed, partly because the military capability gap has actually shrunk in the last two decades. We had a greater military edge back in 2002 after the parliament attack, and we did nothing then, so we won't attack now. Everybody is acting like we suddenly gained a massive superiority over Pakistan and I'm not sure where all this confidence is coming from.

[Manish_P]

...We have the full backing of the US and many other countries including the Afghans...

"It is necessary to get behind someone in order to stab them in the back." — Sir Humphrey Appleby

[Manish_P]

Agreed, partly because the military capability gap has actually shrunk in the last two decades.

We had a greater military edge back in 2002 after the parliament attack
...

Looks correct on the face of it especially big ticket items like Fighter aircraft, subs, tanks, ships for eg. but would like to see actual numbers, if available.

But then a counter factor is that in the early 2000s the Pakis had access to a lot of US support (arms, supplies, fuel, funds) which now seems to be a little bit strained. No billions, just a few hundreds of millions onlee.

[gakakkad]

I think that's some kind of psy-ops and perpetuated myth. We didn't have MKI ,Rafale , brahmos ,irnss , our current cdg ,arihant ,pinaka etc . Da porkies still have the same solas ,subs and toy ships.

Hell back then even our special forces didn't have 100% night vision coverage . Now at least the Frontline infantry does have complete coverage .

We have multilayered BMD /air defense now .what did we have then .

Common man ,this is brf not some old grandma phorum .

The Pakistani PPP per capita back then was > India and even China . Something that looks so lol now . Look at how much the economic gap is now .

Indian strategic reserves are massive . They probably have 2 days of petrol if even that .

[A Deshmukh]

Agreed, partly because the military capability gap has actually shrunk in the last two decades. We had a greater military edge back in 2002 after the parliament attack

Can you provide numeric assessment for 2002 comparison (Ind vs Pak - Army, Navy, AF) and similarly for 2025.
I want to understand why you think the military gap has shrunk.

[Deans]

This thread has now reached the 18th page without a response. This shows how important it was to have had something like a 'Cold Start' doctrine even for terrorist attacks. A 'Cold Response' would have been:
1. Target all the Paki posts immediately with artillery
2. Target all terrorist camps near the border with artillery/ drone strikes
3. Cause quid pro quo terror attacks within Pakistan.

In manpower, we have only a marginal superiority over Pak, alone the LOC.
If we really want to have a fire assault on Pak posts, we need to move two of our three artillery divisions, currently assigned to our
strike corps, to Kashmir. Add at least one more mountain division transferred from the East.

That will mean we give up the idea of a `big arrow' mechanised force advancing into Pak and cutting in in half. My view is we consolidate
our three (slightly understrength) strike corps into two, which will be more than a match for Pakistan's two strike corps. If there's a head on
slugging attrition match between the two strike formations, we will still be stronger, even minus some of our artillery

[Deans]

Agreed, partly because the military capability gap has actually shrunk in the last two decades. We had a greater military edge back in 2002 after the parliament attack

Can you provide numeric assessment for 2002 comparison (Ind vs Pak - Army, Navy, AF) and similarly for 2025.
I want to understand why you think the military gap has shrunk.

If a gap has shrunk, my sense is its only post covid, when the shortage of men in the IA has increased, from its budgeted strength.
Since 2002, we raised a new division (72nd) but that is facing China in south Ladakh.
During that time, Pak has faced severe financial constraints which have led to cut backs on exercises, export of artillery to Ukraine etc.

[ernest]

Are we forgetting about the US involvement in Afghanistan in 2002, and the extreme dependence on Pakistan for accessing Af? That was the major reason why we could not go to conventional war.
That said, Op Parakram did inflict massive damage to terrorists and their infrastructure in J&K including PoK. We also sustained significant casualties in this process, but the op set the way too consistent degradation of terror networks, and also paved the way for comprehensive fencing of the border. Overall, it (including fencing) made infiltration and terror attacks way costlier and build our muscle to squeeze them in the coming years.

[Ashokk]

'Occupy North East if India attacks Pakistan': Yunus government aide

GUWAHATI: A retired Bangladeshi army officer, who is closely associated with the current interim govt led by Muhammad Yunus, has called for occupation of India's northeastern states should India launch an attack on Pakistan over the Pahalgam carnage.
Maj Gen (retired) ALM Fazlur Rahman, a former chief of Bangladesh Rifles, now known as Border Guard Bangladesh), suggested in his social media post that Bangladesh "needs to start discussing a joint military system with China."

[bala]

BD buggers are now so cocky! I think India needs to strike BD first, Pak land can wait - annex siliguri corridor upto Padma River and have a patrol along the river. Take out Chittagong port and park the Indian Navy permanently there. This should shut up BD for good. DJT has asked Modi to deal with these critters as best as he can. That should put a spanner in Cheen designs.

[sidp]

BD buggers are now so cocky! I think India needs to strike BD first, Pak land can wait - annex siliguri corridor upto Padma River and have a patrol along the river. Take out Chittagong port and park the Indian Navy permanently there. This should shut up BD for good. DJT has asked Modi to deal with these critters as best as he can. That should put a spanner in Cheen designs.

All our neighbors are cocky because they really don't receive any 'VISIBLE' response from our side. We maybe doing lots of stuff in the backend, however unless and until their public bravado is countered with iron hand, this wont change. Bangladesh is a really frustrating case in this aspect. Their continuous provocation, involvement in Murshidabad riot, open collusion with Pakistan & China - nothing are countered immediately. We are playing long games, I hope, but time to time some hard response must be awarded to these buggers. No matter what we do Bangladesh population is permanently hostile to us and we can never win them back. So, lets cut the clutter and start sizing them properly.

[Deans]

BD buggers are now so cocky! I think India needs to strike BD first, Pak land can wait - annex siliguri corridor upto Padma River and have a patrol along the river. Take out Chittagong port and park the Indian Navy permanently there. This should shut up BD for good. DJT has asked Modi to deal with these critters as best as he can. That should put a spanner in Cheen designs.

BD is doing a great job collapsing on its own.
GDP down. Exports down. Prices will start creeping up.
All those agitating students will need jobs soon.

[gakakkad]

^ pretty sure they'll yell geoncide once we deal with them . But yeah don't stop a fool from killing themselves.

[bala]

You know I have been thinking of what India can do which is least expected. I think strike on BD is as orthogonal as it gets. On Pak Land we need to seriously think about clobbering Gwadar (Cheen port in Pak Land). With BLA support we can block of Pak land upto Krachi port and give BLA their independence from PA. That would hasten the disintegration of Pak land double quick.

[gakakkad]

Split bd x 2 with the part with Chittagong port should be non Muslim and the Islamic part should be land locked .

[Dilbu]

This is a good move. If we can capture one of the shooters alive and link him to TSPA, then putting them on grey list will be easier.
India eyes 2 financial strikes on Pakistan after Pahalgam attack: FATF grey listing, IMF loan block

As the tensions between India and Pakistan continue to escalate following the devastating Pahalgam attack, reports are emerging that India is considering two specific moves aimed at curbing financial flows towards Pakistan. According to a report by The Indian Express, one of these efforts is to make a concerted effort to try and bring back Pakistan into the ‘grey list’ of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF).

It is pertinent to note that the FATF is the global money laundering and terrorist financing watchdog. Pakistan was put into the ‘grey list’ back in June 2018 and faced “increased monitoring” till it was removed in October 2022. If a country is part of the ‘grey list’, its FDI automatically gets affected.

[dsreedhar]

Let BD commit the blunder and it becomes legitimate for India to take action on Chittagong etc. Even if BD gets in to proceed with its plan, it cannot hold for long. Also it wakes up Indians in WestBengal, NE and all over the country how conniving and dangerous BD is and can be.
Probably it is psyops trying to scare and desist India in its move on Pakistan front.

[williams]

I think we are doing a lot of over analysis. Why would we compare ourselves with who we were in 2001? Shouldn't the answer be obvious? The way this should work should be quite simple. We use all our stand off distance weapons to destroy every visible Paki military and civilian infrastructure, that should include Power, Industrial capacity, Ports, Airports, Dams etc etc. Use all the capacity you've got and then wait for the aftermath. We have enough to defend if there is any Paki asset left over to hit us. Arm the BLA, TTP and the rest of the crowd that is ready to rip the weakened Paki army. Keep doing that for a few iterations and your problem is solved. Let the Khan deal with the nukes falling in the wrong hands once we have gone rogue for a few weeks.

The above will calm the nerves of people like Bangladesh to shut their mouth. Show some hard power and everyone will shut up. It will also give us the pretext to kick the backs of few bad apples in our procurement/production chain who is delaying everything. Arrest a few of them in the name of wartime emergency powers. Just be like Russia for few weeks and then go back to all the analysis.

If a 4 trillion dollar economy with a armed force that constantly hits the top 5 list in the planet cannot do the above, no one will take us seriously and there is no point in having a 90 billion dollar defense budget.

[A_Gupta]

@williams is right. We can hope that PM Modi has made clear the objectives this time round.

Frontline, but impeccable references:

The NSC's test came on Operation Parakram and an exceptionally well-informed book revealed that on December 18, 2001 "the Prime Minister called the three service chiefs and told them to prepare for a war with Pakistan. On being asked by the Chief of the Army Staff Gen. S. Padmanabhan `what the government expected from the war, (Prime Minister) Vajpayee is understood to have said: `woh baad mein bataayenge' (that will be told later).' Such was the beginning of Operation Parakram, where neither were the political objectives for war defined, nor did the military leadership press too hard to find them" (Operation Parakram: The War by Lt.-Gen. (retd.) V.K. Sood and Pravin Sawhney; Sage; page 62. Emphasis added throughout). Sood is a former Vice-Chief of the Army Staff (vide Frontline, June 6, 2003). Top Army officers later complained to correspondents of "the lack of any clear directive from the political leadership about the objective such a war might achieve" (Outlook, June 3, 2002). In any other democracy, the government would have been asked to account. Heads would have rolled.

[williams]

@williams is right. We can hope that PM Modi has made clear the objectives this time round.

Frontline, but impeccable references:

The NSC's test came on Operation Parakram and an exceptionally well-informed book revealed that on December 18, 2001 "the Prime Minister called the three service chiefs and told them to prepare for a war with Pakistan. On being asked by the Chief of the Army Staff Gen. S. Padmanabhan `what the government expected from the war, (Prime Minister) Vajpayee is understood to have said: `woh baad mein bataayenge' (that will be told later).' Such was the beginning of Operation Parakram, where neither were the political objectives for war defined, nor did the military leadership press too hard to find them" (Operation Parakram: The War by Lt.-Gen. (retd.) V.K. Sood and Pravin Sawhney; Sage; page 62. Emphasis added throughout). Sood is a former Vice-Chief of the Army Staff (vide Frontline, June 6, 2003). Top Army officers later complained to correspondents of "the lack of any clear directive from the political leadership about the objective such a war might achieve" (Outlook, June 3, 2002). In any other democracy, the government would have been asked to account. Heads would have rolled.

Namo ji is quite a practical guy. He has been quite a leader when the time came to lead us during the past crisis, especially with the Chinese. Honestly, this guy came up from the streets and knows how to deal with street thugs like the Pakis. We are blessed that way. If we had some poem writing philosopher as the PM there is a chance to get into the same analysis paralysis we do in BR

[SRajesh]

^^NaMo by himself would not start any conflict but if pulled into one I dont he will ever forgive or forget!!
Check what has happened to the presstitutes who went against him. He has not directly involved himself in any of their affairs yet all in DeepShit!
Was watching PVN's porgramme of whats in store for Pakis and Us.
He is very clear that it is not in NaMo's pscyche to let go of the enemy.
In the end he crushes them.

[Vayutuvan]

BD buggers are now so cocky! I think India needs to strike BD first, Pak land can wait - annex siliguri corridor upto Padma River and have a patrol along the river. Take out Chittagong port and park the Indian Navy permanently there. This should shut up BD for good. DJT has asked Modi to deal with these critters as best as he can. That should put a spanner in Cheen designs.

What is the casus belli? These statements will be written off by the BD govt., such as it is, as not official. Also statements are not casus belli. If they take action, that is different matter.

[Vayutuvan]

Split bd x 2 with the part with Chittagong port should be non Muslim and the Islamic part should be land locked .

I had exactly this thought while taking shower this morning. But how? How would we start the operation?

[Amber G.]

Today’s Indian Army is much much better compared to 2019.
Post-Balakot, India integrated satellites into warfighting. Now missiles, jets, ships, and drones are live-tracked and guided from space
- RISAT series , Cartosat series ( 0.25m resolution), GSAT-( Secured military communication), EMISAT...
- IRNSS/NavIC: India’s own GPS — independent missile/drone guidance.

[Jay]

11 Days since the attack and not 1 perp/org responsible has been punished.

[partha]

Even Rajnath Singh is missing victory day parade in Moscow. An MoD secretary is attending instead. Very interesting.

[Ashokk]

Meanwhile some hypocritical advice from EU as usual -
https://x.com/kajakallas/status/1918311802229662164

Kaja Kallas
@kajakallas
Rising tensions between India and Pakistan are alarming. I urge both sides to show restraint and pursue dialogue to ease the situation. Escalation helps no one. I spoke to both @DrSJaishankar
and @MIshaqDar50
today to convey these messages.

Check out the comments

[partha]

11 Days since the attack and not 1 perp/org responsible has been punished.

Balakot strike happened 12 days after Pulwama. Israel attacked Gaza 20 days after Oct 7th.

[gakakkad]

^ Afghanistan was invaded a month after 9/11

[isubodh]

Split bd x 2 with the part with Chittagong port should be non Muslim and the Islamic part should be land locked .

I had exactly this thought while taking shower this morning. But how? How would we start the operation?

What % is non-muslim population of B'desh

[vimal]

^ Afghanistan was invaded a month after 9/11

All good data points but the response was against a first time attack. In the case of India this is like the 1000th time so all the responses should have been gauged and prepared in advance.

[partha]

https://www.dawn.com/news/1907988/pm-sh ... -in-region

PM Shehbaz urges Saudi Arabia, Gulf allies to help ease tensions in region

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Friday urged Saudi Arabia and other Gulf allies to impress upon India to de-escalate and defuse tensions in South Asia

Pakistan is still desperately pleading with world leaders to help defuse the tension. This is also not the first time Pak PM has talked to Gulf leaders since April 22nd attack. This shows Pakistan has so far failed to gather any meaningful support to de escalation. Their own intel assessment must be reporting that there is no slow down in Indian preparation for a retaliation.

It looks like GoI is keeping even the US guessing as to what the nature of response will be. Meanwhile GoI is leaking through various media reports about the plans to confuse the Pakis. While Praveen Swami is reporting plans to capture Neelum and Leepa valleys, another report in ToI says "preferred option" is long range missiles without cross LoC. Even US VP is just "hoping" Indian response doesn't lead to a broader conflict. Basically we just have to wait and see. I just hope there is no analysis paralysis within GoI regarding the scale of the retaliation.

[Vayutuvan]

As long as this is not an Operation Parakram repeat. Without going to battle, "the Indian military sustained 798 fatal casualties".

(Kargil cost 527).

What India wants to do this time around is not comparable to Kargil. It is more like repeat of Op Parakram with lessons learnt from that operation.

Also we should not forget what our business community is going to say. Their views are lot more important now than back in 2002. At that time NRN prevailed. It is even possible that he was used as an excuse to not push a bayonet up pakis' nether regions. Pressure might have been geopolitical.

[Vayutuvan]

^ Afghanistan was invaded a month after 9/11

US invaded the wrong country Pakis were sheltering OBL all along.