Pahalgam Terror Attack: News & Discussion

[Amber G.]

Also some well known analysts (in USA) are little incredulous.. after putting tweets about how Mascow may mediate between India and pak see this..

Russia picks a side, and surprise surprise, it’s India. Pakistan had tried to have a better relationship with the Kremlin, and now, can only hope for China’s support

India Receives Igla-S Air Defences From Russia; New Missiles For 'Forward Deployment' Amid Pak Tensions

[Amber G.]

Heard Pakistan’s Permanent Representative at UN Asim Iftikhar Ahmad .. after the close door UN meet - as expected goes on a 9-minute anti-India propaganda spree after UNSC meet.

(Vide Link omitted but easy to find)

Dawn has this "“Pakistan’s permanent representative to the UN Asim Iftikhar on Tuesday said that the country’s objectives were largely achieved by a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) meeting it had requested…" with showing china is backing them..(Pakistan is at present a member of UN security council but they found no support from any other 8 (including 4 permanent members)..

[VinodTK]

I am impressed with the Israel's they are ready to respond to any threat/hostile action in a short time. No start planning, exercising their armies, last but not least doing emergency purchase.

[ShauryaT]

The author (Max Abrahms ,Professor of Political Science, Northeastern University), based on research, believes the attack was indeed carried out by TRF/LeT, citing patterns of militant groups claiming or denying responsibility based on target type and public reaction. The article predicts India will respond forcefully to the attack, given the civilian targets, and notes past instances of Indian military responses to terrorist attacks.

C. Fair thinks the response will be muted for two reasons. 1. In her view, the link to TSP is not established. 2. The reaction to civilian casualties is not as severe as to soldiers.

[ShauryaT]

I am impressed with the Israel's they are ready to respond to any threat/hostile action in a short time. No start planning, exercising their armies, last but not least doing emergency purchase.

I am impressed with Israel too. They have managed to not have nuclear neighbors, control the actions of a super power with an unlimited tap of supplies and the full protection of the west, even for genocide

[gakakkad]

^ I don't wanna start another debate but the only gencides in middle east are by ROP on druze , Jews and other minorities.

But I agree that they managed to make sure none of the other isloos have the bum . Something we could have made sure as well had it not been for jaychands.

[vera_k]

C. Fair thinks the response will be muted for two reasons. 1. In her view, the link to TSP is not established. 2. The reaction to civilian casualties is not as severe as to soldiers.

Pray, to which attack is she harking to?

Indian response is like the output from a quantum random number generator.
There was a response to Pulwama, but no response to Mumbai or any number of earlier attacks.

Like posted earlier, will be sufficient perhaps if that Karachi hospital housing Dawood is targeted for earlier bombings in Mumbai.

[Amber G.]

^ I don't wanna start another debate but the only gencides in middle east are by ROP on druze , Jews and other minorities.

But I agree that they managed to make sure none of the other isloos have the bum . Something we could have made sure as well had it not been for jaychands.

I am sure you know about how Israel's intelligence agency, Mossad, partnered with RAW) to gather information about Pakistan's nuclear program in the late 1970s. After confirming Pakistan's secret nuclear facility at Kahuta was producing nuclear-grade materials, Israel wanted to conduct an air strike on the facility. However, India's then Prime Minister Morarji Desai reportedly revealed details of the operation to Pakistan's General Zia-ul-Haq during a phone conversation, compromising the RAW's network and thwarting the potential Israeli attack..
See for example Operation Kahuta – When RAW Agents Slowed Pakistan’s Nuclear Program By Taking Hair Samples

[Amber G.]

From the famous Lal Masjid of Islamabad

No one raises hand when Moulvi asks if people will stand with Pakistan when war with India breaks.

Video credit: Husain Haqqani

[RCase]

I am impressed with the Israel's they are ready to respond to any threat/hostile action in a short time. No start planning, exercising their armies, last but not least doing emergency purchase.

There is bit of difference between Israel and India. Israel does not have to contend with a hostile behemoth like China next to its border. All the countries that border Israel are not military super powers with their own Military Industrial complex. Yes, there are quite a few islamic countries around them, but they are relatively small and technologically inferior.

Their ability to strike quickly is impressive, but one has to ask 'Have they been successful with the Hamas and Hezbollah?', even after so many months of fighting? The outcome is still inconclusive, despite the flattening of Gaza.

[gakakkad]

^^ sy hersh exposed morarji to be CIA agent. we are still paying the price for his actions

[Jay]

For people who want to cut Pakistan in half; it can be done. But then we will own the carcass. You want 240 million of them on your electoral roll? I don’t.

Let me pose a contrarian view...


Why should we get the 240 million of them on our electoral rolls? Why not adopt the HK model of containing them within their territory but ceding defence and foreign affairs controls till they learn to behave like normal humans (generational re-education). One country, two systems! Heck, we could even deport some of the problematic M's from the mainland to these areas when they behave badly. Yes, this is a law and order problem, but will not require huge defence spending and doing weird gymnastics due to geography. The Pakijabi intrinsically has been full of bluster, but fold under pressure. This is historically proven.

I feel the same can be done with BD. No more chicken's neck etc.

All we need is a balkanized pakistan before we can even dream about akahnd-bharat, and we may not want to be responsible for a quarter billion jihadis.

To get the ball rolling, we need to do is say that India identifies KP, and Balochistan resistance leaders as official representatives of newly formed nations of KP, and Balochistan and let the story play out from there.

[Jay]

Their ability to strike quickly is impressive, but one has to ask 'Have they been successful with the Hamas and Hezbollah?', even after so many months of fighting? The outcome is still inconclusive, despite the flattening of Gaza.

You are looking at it the wrong way. Israel has successfully managed to reduce the size of its problem from the entire middle east to limited conclaves. Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Emirates have all been dealt crippling blows time after time and were forced to accept peace with israel after licking their wounds. The threat of existential threat is removed for israel and what remains is various forms of terrorism from smaller actors like Hamas and Hezb. We still have the same existential threat and because we cannot punish these threat actors, we constantly have other barking dogs in the neighborhood to deal with too.

[Amber G.]

UNSC closed door meeting ends with no outcomes, no statement, no release. The meeting was called at the request of Pakistan.

--- Added later update: (Source: Aditya Raj Kaul Tweet)
UN Security Council members raised tough questions for Pakistan at its informal session. They refused to accept the “false flag” narrative and asked whether LeT was likely to be involved. There was broad condemnation of the terrorist attack and recognition of the need for accountability. Some members specifically brought up targeting of tourists on the basis of their religious faith. Many members expressed concern that Pakistan’s missile tests and nuclear rhetoric were escalatory factors. Pakistan’s efforts to internationalise the situation also failed. They were advised to sort out the issues bilaterally with India.

[Yagnasri]

I think pakis will now either attack us or do one more major terror thing to pressure us to attack them. They can not keep this forward deployment longer as they do not have the money.

[Dilbu]

This is the right time to pass another resolution in the Parliament stating that J& K, including PoK is an integral part of India and we reserve the right to integrate it at the time of our choosing. Just to add flames to the stew being slowly cooked.

[madhu]

I see no many videos of paki army movement. They are giving place and date also. Based on these open source can we map where all these movement is happening and where is the destination for them. This will help to understand what is the game plan where pakis are focusing can be debated. these are just thoughts and also is there any website where we can create such details? also will it be useful to understand war?

[ramana]

I have a question to all.
Can Pakistan "get away" after conducting a WMD attack by its "terrorists" in India under the "deniability" premise umbrella?

Getting away would be anything less than punitive action against the Pakistan Army.

Given the complexity of Pakistan's irrationality, and the history of terrorism, a response consistent with Prime Minister Modi's stance would likely involve decisive action. Here's a possible breakdown:

Potential Indian Responses:
Military Strikes: Targeted operations against terrorist camps or infrastructure in Pakistan, similar to past but more painful for Pak.

Diplomatic Pressure: International community engagement to isolate Pakistan and emphasize its role in supporting terrorism.

Economic Measures: Sanctions or trade restrictions to pressure Pakistan into taking action against terrorist groups.

Key Considerations:

International Support: India might seek global backing to legitimize its actions and pressure Pakistan.
Retaliation and Deterrence: India's "Cold Start" doctrine aims to swiftly mobilize and strike, while maintaining a no-first-use nuclear policy.
Nuclear Dynamics: Williams put it best: 'India also has the right to pre-empt any use of nuclear weapons if there is credible knowledge of the intend to use of nuclear weapons.'


Modi's Stance:

Culprits Will Be Punished: India will hold Pakistan accountable for any terrorist activities traced back to its territory or army.
Bringing Perpetrators to Justice: This could involve cooperation with international authorities or unilateral action.

In summary: कर्मण्येवाधिकारस्ते मा फलेषु कदाचन
(You have a right to perform your actions, but for the results, you have no control)

Pak irrationality is highly overrated. Their nuclear brinkmanship is encouraged by US think tanks simulations ending with US intervention to stop an India retaliation.
In past two confrontations India signaled nuclear intent: in Kargil they moved some missiles in the open and sent a naval ship with Dhanush towards Karachi. Gen Padmanabhan warned about massive retaliation during Parakram.
URI there was no signalling and ended in Balakot strike.

This time India is not signalling anything while Pakistan has fired to missiles.

This should scare the war mongers in Pakistan and elsewhere.

[ramana]

I see no many videos of paki army movement. They are giving place and date also. Based on these open source can we map where all these movement is happening and where is the destination for them. This will help to understand what is the game plan where pakis are focusing can be debated. these are just thoughts and also is there any website where we can create such details? also will it be useful to understand war?

You need to post them here if you already found them.

[ramana]

The author (Max Abrahms ,Professor of Political Science, Northeastern University), based on research, believes the attack was indeed carried out by TRF/LeT, citing patterns of militant groups claiming or denying responsibility based on target type and public reaction. The article predicts India will respond forcefully to the attack, given the civilian targets, and notes past instances of Indian military responses to terrorist attacks.

C. Fair thinks the response will be muted for two reasons. 1. In her view, the link to TSP is not established. 2. The reaction to civilian casualties is not as severe as to soldiers.

She must be relying on her think tank circuit confabulations.
And she is delusional if she thinks connection to TSP is not established.

Pak actions show their guilty behavior!

[ramana]

Also please don't post such tripe from her ilk.
Every Indian life is precious to Indians.

Maybe not to Americans.

[bala]

One of the main points overlooked by international entities is that the PA is not answerable to the elected Political masters PM etc. It is truly a rogue entity akin to dictators like Gadaffi/Sadam. There is no check and balance on the PA chief and ISI chief of Puke land. Terrorism is part n parcel of PA/ISI and it is no more a professional army which takes its cue from the elected leader.

This nuke bluff encouraged by US and China needs to be ended by India. India should make a terse comment that any nuke threat means the end of Puke land as we know it. Also India should openly ask Israel to take out Puke nuke facilities similar to Iran.

[Yagnasri]

The records of Gaddafi and Saddam are mixed. Horrible brutality was there. But many times, the admin was also better when compared to other ME areas for women, minorities or even marginalised people as long as they do not threaten the ruling despots. But PA has no positive contribution and horrible brutalities.

[uddu]

EXCLUSIVE: Should India go to war vs. Pakistan? J. Sai Deepak & T.V. Mohandas Pai debate next steps

[Hriday]

The below OSINT handle had several videos of Pak army movements. He says sourced from Paki social media.
https://x.com/OsintTV/status/1919657837 ... 9OC4A&s=19

One more exclusive footage of several Pak army APCs moving towards the chammb /Chumb area of PoJK

Date : 04-05-2025

[SBajwa]

Security drills at 244 districts all over India (all districts in Punjab and Chandigarh)

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/india ... -escalate/

[Hriday]

Can anyone comment on the veracity of the claim of cyber attack on Pakistan. Several major OSINT handles are following this handle.
https://x.com/CyberForceX/status/191946 ... FzooA&s=19

Pakistan’s Surveillance has been Hacked
Over 1,000+ cameras now under our Watch

Includes:
* Industrial zones
* Private corporations
* Government facilities
* Schools
* Banks & ATMs

Watching every corner of Pakistan as they die from thirst.
t.me/Indian_cyber_f…

#IndianCyberForce
#BloodForBlood

The Bank of Pakistan has been taken down

Target:- bop.com.pk/BoP

Check-host:- check-host.net/check-report/2…

#IndianCyberForce
#******
#Testing

The Website has added a geo-block lol, they’re really scared. They’ve restricted access to the website for almost every country except Pakistan.

#IndianCyberForce
#******

[Hriday]

https://x.com/ANI/status/19193045370110 ... UInwg&s=19

#WATCH | Akhnoor, J&K: A local, Ramsur Sharma says "I am 75 years old, but this is the first time I have witnessed that the water of Chenab River can be stopped. I thank PM Modi for his decision. I am shocked to see only 1.5-2 feet of water in the Chenab River. In the next 2 hours, this water can also dry up. We are all standing with the Army..."

See the videos in the post and in the reply.

[bala]

One of the failures in security that allowed the PA/ISI thugs to mow down tourists in Kashmore is the complete lack of coordination between the various security arms of India. During the GOI rule of Kashmore the army, crpf, police, border security, IB and others were at the same briefing. All of them were kept abreast of security lapses, what can be done to enhance security and so on. With the current Omar rule, security briefing is not united, each one of them does whatever they think is needed. It is dysfunctional and hare brained. Dealing with Puke land with China behind them requires a more concerted effort. I hope GOI becomes serious and clamps down on security function.

[A Deshmukh]

more than dysfunctional, it could be diabolic dual-faced.
don't forget it was the Abdullahs in power in state and Muftis in power in Centre, when the Kashmir Pandit genocide happened.
If not Omar himself, but may be other ministers and party men may be helping the terrorists.

[Deans]

Given that Pak has more AWACs and a smaller airspace to defend, they have better visibility of their airspace than we do.
Operating over Pak airspace, the IAF will have to contend with AWACS and then a combination of SAMs and fighters, which will erode our
numbers and tech advantage.
Over Indian airspace we are far superior.
My guess, is do shallow attacks into Pak airspace to knock out economic targets (most of Pakistan's economy is East of the Indus) before Pak
air defences react.

Wont the paki AWACS be the first to be shot down in any conflict., india has sufficient long range missiles, both AA and SA

The AWACs will presumably be operated at the Western edge of Pak airspace, out of range of our SAM coverage. Keep in mind that of our 3 S-400
regiments, 1 is in the East. The other two will be at least 150 km inside our airspace. The S-400 ground based radar does not have the same range
as the missiles (ground based radar generally does not due to the curvature of the earth). Targets have to be acquired by our own AWA&C, or
the SU-30. The range of the missile has to also consider the evasive action/ jamming of the target and its escorts. Both sides must have war-gamed
this scenario. I wouldn't know the result, but I would not be optimistic that shooting down their AWA&C aircraft is going to be easy.

[Deans]

Deans Sir, let me start by saying that I value your insights and blogs...Please allow me to rip apart the argument that you have pushed.

I see many people ranting that India has less awacs (it has less for 2 front war), and it needs xyz numbers. Some crazies here at BR have suggested that we need 1 per squadron blah blah, or one per district in India or 1 per person.... The need for AWACS is simply driven by how many air fronts you have. Against pakhanastanis we need 1 over Punjab/South Kashmir/North Rajasthan (An AWACS can look 450 KM front), 1 over Gujarat and 1 over central Rajasthan. Most of the air fight will happen in Punjab/Kashmir/North Raj area. So 3 fronts against Pak. Pakis can sneak an attack from Skardu, or over arabian sea but I guess IAF will keep them busy on the 3 fronts mentioned. We have 6 AWACS that should be sufficient to cover at least 2 fronts 24/7 and 3rd sprodacilly. In the North, near Galwan, Sikkim and Arunachal, we would need AWACS coverage, but for now, the ground radars have to do. If you factor in maintenance and attrition, few more have been good, but 6 will do.

TSP having 7-9 AWACS does not help beyond a point. It is not that each AWACS will go against each other and since India has 6 and TSP has 9, TSP wins.

We have superb ground coverage. Our radars (both imported and domestic) provide excellent and redundant coverage. The AFNET does act as G(GROUND)WACS. It is always good to have more AWACS to spot tree hugging TSP planes, but I don't see TSP doing tree level attacks that many. Most of their airspace is fully covered by multiple long range radar from the Indian side. AWACS helps but its absence only hurts marginally. It will matter a lot in certain circumstances (large scale ground destruction). Why does NATO then have so many awacs? It has to fight distant war where its own ground radar may not be available.

The above is not a case of not having AWACS (we need at lear 14 +2), only pointing that it is a disadvantage , but not a big one. The 250 km from border into TSP is covered with ground radar. Some ground based radars have 400 KM range

Fanne ji, I don't think we really disagree. Inside Indian airspace, we have a considerable advantage, for the reasons you mention, to the extent
that I don't see Pak making a lot of attacks. That implies that the PAF defends their airspace and my point is that inside their airspace, a combination of their radar + SAM + fighters, negates some of our numerical advantage (or having superior fighters like the Rafale).

[Deans]

Given that Pak has more AWACs and a smaller airspace to defend, they have better visibility of their airspace than we do.
Operating over Pak airspace, the IAF will have to contend with AWACS and then a combination of SAMs and fighters, which will erode our
numbers and tech advantage.
Over Indian airspace we are far superior.
My guess, is do shallow attacks into Pak airspace to knock out economic targets (most of Pakistan's economy is East of the Indus) before Pak
air defences react.

How so? Our numbers may be less, but our flight duration is higher, detection range is higher and our S-400 system acts as a deterrent from their circa 300 km detection ranges. Again, a 1:1 compare of number of platforms is not a true measure of capability and operations effectiveness.

I broadly agree. Overall we have 29 fighter squadrons, (excluding the Mig21) of which 8 are in the East, vs 15 of Pak.
There are 2 * S-400 batteries in the West and one in the East.
We have a bigger advantage in modern fighters (SU30, Rafale, Tejas).
That is enough to protect our airspace, but my view is that it is not enough to ensure air superiority over Pak airspace.

[gakakkad]

I think the beginning should be wiping out their air defense airstrips and hangars and airbases with cruise missiles and air launched missiles from our airspace . Once with achieve SEAD go in at will .

I think that is eminently achievable .

[Deans]

I am impressed with the Israel's they are ready to respond to any threat/hostile action in a short time. No start planning, exercising their armies, last but not least doing emergency purchase.

Israel has unlimited funds for it. You can drive across the country in a couple of hours which reduces mobilization time.
That said, there are an increasing number of no shows among the reservists called up. Some of them have been called up for the 6th time in
a year (there is a limit on how long a reservist can be mobilized). Brigades of 2500 men are short of 500.
The govt decided to conscript religious Jews who were hitherto exempted from conscription. Barely 10% have joined.
If `no shows' are treated as deserters, the country will have a civil war

[SRajesh]

Deansji
A question regarding Pak AWACS operating from western borders:
1. Are Talibunnies close enough to us to let us operate from their air bases to hit the AWACs
2. Any chance BiBi will come from over the Arabian sea to take down some of the plum targets given the amount of noise Pakis have been making about Gaza
The reason I ask is because Gaza is now for a complete clearance by the Isrealis (as Trump Sab had predicted- we shall clear the strip and occupy it for few decades and build a {dont know may a new Vegas type golden mile just to entice the Sheiks to let their Keffiyahs down } Neon Plaza)
Bibi and the isrealis hate the Pakis and want to take their Bum down!!

[Deans]

My 2 Rupees worth:

I think Pak will be increasingly squeezed by the IWT abrogation and our resulting actions on water. I believe we have also got the Taliban govt to
demand a proper water sharing agreement with Pak - which gets 80% of the water flowing from Afghanistan.
Pak army will either have to respond or be shown to be impotent.
If they attack us (attacking a superior force with prepared defences) they will be badly hit and open to a counter attack.
For that our strike formations would have moved closer to the border. Pak has lost whatever advantage their lower mobilization time gives.

The next best option is to fire across the LOC. I think the world community will prevail on both sides to restrict it to the LOC, particularly as
Pak no longer recognises it.
If that happens we need to have massive fire superiority. It would involve moving two of our 3 artillery divisions to the LOC (giving us a
2.5 : 1 advantage in artillery). We would also have to move a couple of divisions from the East to Kashmir and look at a reverse Kargil, backed up
by heavy fire assaults. If our villages are shelled - we can obliterate not just their border villages but Muzaffarabad - which is within Pinaka range.
Having Muslim majority villages on our side hit may not be a bad idea.
If Pak moves more units into POK - from XI and XII corps in Baluchistan and Peshawar, we have an opportunity to support the Baluchistan and
KP insurgency. It will also mean Pak has no reserves along the international border.
A month of heavy artillery exchanges across the LOC and Pak runs out of ammo and the cost burden may sink them.

I think we are carefully moving formations into place.

[Deans]

Deansji
A question regarding Pak AWACS operating from western borders:
1. Are Talibunnies close enough to us to let us operate from their air bases to hit the AWACs
2. Any chance BiBi will come from over the Arabian sea to take down some of the plum targets given the amount of noise Pakis have been making about Gaza
The reason I ask is because Gaza is now for a complete clearance by the Isrealis (as Trump Sab had predicted- we shall clear the strip and occupy it for few decades and build a {dont know may a new Vegas type golden mile just to entice the Sheiks to let their Keffiyahs down } Neon Plaza)
Bibi and the isrealis hate the Pakis and want to take their Bum down!!

1. My book `2022 India's two front war' actually has our special forces, aided by Afghans, carry out a drone strike against Pak AWACS (on the ground)
in Peshawar and the IAF operating from a base in Tadjikistan.

2. No. Bibi is unpopular within Israel for continuing operations in Gaza. While we praise Israel, the fact is that they have not taken on a country with a professional army with a real air force (which Pak is and Iran is not) let alone with nukes.

[VinodTK]

I am impressed with the Israel's they are ready to respond to any threat/hostile action in a short time. No start planning, exercising their armies, last but not least doing emergency purchase.

Dean's jee not arguing with you expressing my views

Israel has unlimited funds for it Not sure of the statement Sir jee; RM always says there is no shortage of funds for procuring the required weapons . You can drive across the country in a couple of hours which reduces mobilization time. Mobilization should not be an issue for India; thought after Kargil things were going to changed
That said, there are an increasing number of no shows among the reservists called up. Some of them have been called up for the 6th time in
a year (there is a limit on how long a reservist can be mobilized). Brigades of 2500 men are short of 500.
The govt decided to conscript religious Jews who were hitherto exempted from conscription. Barely 10% have joined.
If `no shows' are treated as deserters, the country will have a civil war
Even with such shortages they have had good success against 42 nations.

All I am saying is India should be more prepared; Not saying it's bad.

[Jay]

Israel has unlimited funds for it.

Deans ji, Israel has decent funding, but unlimited funding is a bit stretch. What they have is a plan of actions to fall back on and avoid all this folding shirt sleeves, twirling mustaches, and all the dramabaazi of getting ready to fight only for the moment and initiative to be fizzed out.

They also need to have funding for their war making capabilities because once their enemies know they do not have the capacity, it's game over for them. At it's peak in the early 70's, they spent 30% of their GDP on defense and this has come down to less than 5% in 2022. I think it currently went back up to 8%. Even at 5% of their GDP, because they invested in their own arms, they plough back a lot of this spending back in their economy and us not doing this is like getting shot by a double barrel gun, each barrel representing money spent on foreign purchases, and lack of funds to learn those crafts.