Pahalgam Terror Attack: News & Discussion

[A Deshmukh]

Our next step should be putting Shimla Agreement in abeyance - as TSP stated the same without formal communication. We should go one step ahead and refer to Pak statements with agreement and formalize the same.
This legally opens up the LOC for grabs.

[ShauryaT]

How so? Our numbers may be less, but our flight duration is higher, detection range is higher and our S-400 system acts as a deterrent from their circa 300 km detection ranges. Again, a 1:1 compare of number of platforms is not a true measure of capability and operations effectiveness.

I broadly agree. Overall we have 29 fighter squadrons, (excluding the Mig21) of which 8 are in the East, vs 15 of Pak.
There are 2 * S-400 batteries in the West and one in the East.
We have a bigger advantage in modern fighters (SU30, Rafale, Tejas).
That is enough to protect our airspace, but my view is that it is not enough to ensure air superiority over Pak airspace.

I think that is a fair view, if one looks at the entire air space all at one time. However, my understanding is air war or even the air-land battle will be fought in a localized space and battle-space dominance is what matters.

[fanne]

.....

Fanne ji, I don't think we really disagree. Inside Indian airspace, we have a considerable advantage, for the reasons you mention, to the extent
that I don't see Pak making a lot of attacks. That implies that the PAF defends their airspace and my point is that inside their airspace, a combination of their radar + SAM + fighters, negates some of our numerical advantage (or having superior fighters like the Rafale).

We have a massive arsenals of Air to ground munitions (not bringing missiles into it, we may the world superpower in ground to ground missiles). If you read between the lines on various news items that have come over the years, we have a massive number, we may not have to go really deep to punish these guys.

Having said that, some decisions are going to hurt (like not buying 54 Rafale, but 36, option was for 54, but that had some geopolitical goal around it), or buying Rafale M sooner, we may have few by now (again delayed some due to geopolitics). Delay in artillery is purely you know what. Same for Awacs and airborne jammers plus ground tracking radars. Sats as well. Some of these would have made difference, and were delayed due to reasons firmly in our control. But we did good at many different items. I think we will whip them bad.

[fanne]

But Shaurya sir, doesn't that mean with more qualitative asset on ground and air we will eventually have advantage? Key word eventually after heavy attrition from both side. TSP would want us to box us near chicken neck near Jammu. They can concentrate force there, we will too and slog it out.

But why fight that war? Bring in Navy (and TSP knows that, that's why F-16 in Gawadar, and I have a feeling that it has some anti ship/anti sub munition)
Even guided bombs can come in handy and F-16 are rumored to be harpoon ready) and open front where we are at advantage. Or maybe something in the desert? or Even in Gujrat border. The three districts adjoining are all hindu majority. Open a front where we have advantage on not fight the war that TSP and its backers want us to fight (mostly to cut us to size).

In many ways we are already doing it. I won't be surprised that first military strike comes from a desperate and frustrated TSP.

[Ashokk]

https://x.com/detresfa_/status/1919737693157917018

India issues a NOTAM for a fairly large air exercise along the southern section of its border with Pakistan
Date 07-08 May 2025

[chetak]

VI@WA

Loved this short cryptic and funny piece. Not my doing , it is copied ....


Operational Overanalyses: Tactical Rants on Prime Time by Veterans Turned Mic-Marshals. (“Delivering strategic Gems no one needed — least of all the people across the border.”)

As the nation holds its breath in the wake of the cowardly Pahalgam attack, a familiar breed of warriors are seen executing the cardinal military tac of Dash Down, Crawl with perfection - not towards the enemy bunkers but towards TV studios. Clad in regimental scarf like it’s a “Naam, Namak, Nishan” parade, regimental sidecaps angled at a perfect 45 degrees (for maximum camera coverage), and moustaches groomed with the precision of a night op, these veterans of vintage wars have taken position — Not on the LoC, but behind Studio Desks. With voices louder than a section attack and passion matching a bayonet charge, they can be seen defending the nation’s honour in TV Debates these days from 0900h to 2200h… in full HD resolution.

Once it was "Ek Goli, Ek Dusman", now it's "Ek Point, Dus Opinions". With techniques improvised to give uncontrollable giggles, there is no need for satellites or drones when you have Retired Colonel I am Smart giving a live demo of flanking maneuvers using paper cups and a tea tray on a News Channel. From the comfort of air-conditioned studios, our seasoned tacticians are offering military-grade advice that’s sure to rattle enemies or at least the camera crew.

And a Special thanks to one Particularly Strategic Genius—the Sun Tzu of sensationalism—who brilliantly deciphered the ancient art of warfare, from ‘Aad Pakdo’ to ‘TRP Pakdo, the studio has now been Split into two teams: Red and Blue. On one side, you have the Red Team advocating “Surgical Thunderbolts,” and on the other, the Blue Team proposing “Stealthy Jawbreakers.” Somewhere between commercial breaks and sponsored tea, the fate of the subcontinent hangs in suspense.

Now enters the most iconic catchphrase in the history of these debates: "When I was the commander, I did this…
"Sir, with all due respect, yes, we know. And we salute your service. But please understand, You are no longer the Commander on ground. So maybe, just maybe, stop giving away the entire battle plan over the snacks platter and LED screens.

Let’s not be a prey to every single TV channel Desperate for TRPs and "Exclusive War Insights." There is patriotism, and then there is Primetime Patriotism and the latter tends to do more harm than good.

It’s time we remind ourselves that military operations aren’t reality shows. Let’s not impose our thoughts or leanings on every strategic issue. Let the present set of commanders, who are holding the fort with competence, resources, and current intelligence, do their job quietly, professionally, and effectively.

My small submission that might save a lot of trouble. Before any veteran Decides to offer a Suggestion or jump into a debate, please begin with these magical words: “I think the commander on ground is doing a fantastic job.” Then, if absolutely necessary, offer your perspective in closed corridors. This single line can work wonders. It shows humility, trust in the system, and sets the tone for constructive commentary rather than confusing noise.

So, to our Beloved Warriors of Yesteryears, Sir, keep the moustaches, keep the medals, keep the stories. But let the warriors of today write their own stories by their gallant acts.

And Maybe, just Maybe, Let the Enemy stay Confused for Once.

[ShauryaT]

But Shaurya sir, doesn't that mean with more qualitative asset on ground and air we will eventually have advantage? Key word eventually after heavy attrition from both side. TSP would want us to box us near chicken neck near Jammu. They can concentrate force there, we will too and slog it out.

But why fight that war? Bring in Navy (and TSP knows that, that's why F-16 in Gawadar, and I have a feeling that it has some anti ship/anti sub munition)
Even guided bombs can come in handy and F-16 are rumored to be harpoon ready) and open front where we are at advantage. Or maybe something in the desert? or Even in Gujrat border. The three districts adjoining are all hindu majority. Open a front where we have advantage on not fight the war that TSP and its backers want us to fight (mostly to cut us to size).

In many ways we are already doing it. I won't be surprised that first military strike comes from a desperate and frustrated TSP.

yes, it depends on what the military and political objectives are. 1965 was an out of the box military response but a strategic loss in terms of ceding spaces like Haji pir and large swaths in Punjab, so was to a degree 1971 on the western front, even after attaining military objectives by giving away the captured lands. If all we want to do is thrash and go back then what you are saying makes sense, However I do not think that adds up to much. IMO: We need to keep on thrashing and thrashing in only one area, which is our sovereign territory. If it takes 30 years and 30 battles to do so, so be it for that is what will cost them, demoralize them and attain objectives for us at a political, military and strategic levels with escalation dominance and manageable consequences. I think we all agree, the issues are not going away any time soon, no matter what. Remember Pakistan is not a "threat". It is a nuisance, it means the initiative is in our hands, they have zero capability to escalate except for two things. 1. Keep on rattling the nuclear threat. 2. Bring in external pressure (works until India is not self sufficient in arms and is dependent on trade/inflows). For the second, I do think there is something to be said for winning a war, perceptions change. Winning exudes confidence.

Another thing. We need to prove Major General D.K Palit wrong. He noted that India Pakistan wars are like “communal riots with tanks”. We need to get used to the idea that wars are bloody affairs and it will take blood from our side to establish - permanent gains. Our blood needs to count for something. Hopefully, this generation can give to the next a more secure and prosperous India and not shove the problem to them. I will stop now

[vimal]

Defence mock drill on May 7: Security exercise to take place in 259 locations including Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru

The development comes amid exacerbating bilateral tensions between India and Pakistan after the terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir's Pahalgam that killed 26 people, including a Kashmiri ponywallah.

https://www.businesstoday.in/india/stor ... 2025-05-06

[Rakesh]

https://x.com/Shinchan_Mitsi/status/1919734680275787948 ---> So apparently Indian Rafales went inside Pakistan and had a good 30 minute time.

https://x.com/Ray70409890/status/1919739502832091443 ---> So our jets entered PoK airspace , flew in and around Skardu for 30 mins and returned unscathed! And they managed to do all these while PAF and PA were on the highest level of alert. What happened to the JF-17 Block II detachment at Skardu?

[Hriday]

Since Pak has declared the Shimla agreement void, the LOC is now a disputed border.
We need to do a Kargil in reverse. Improve our positions on the LOC - shorten it (Uri-Poonch Bulge), take some posts which facilitate infiltration.
Bring Muzaffarabad in artillery (or at least MLRS) range.
Terrorist infra is not longer a target, the Pak army is the terror infrastructure.

From WION news,
https://x.com/sidhant/status/1919648015 ... pYvRQ&s=19

It is been 10 days, & while Pakistan said it will put Shimla Agreement in Abeyance, it has not done so far. No release or notification on Shimla pact from Pakistan. India on other hand, was quick to inform Pakistan that it has put the Indus water treaty in abeyance.
Pak release:

Deans ji, In what aspects it will affect India if we plan to capture territory across LoC or doing continuous artillery fire.

[Rakesh]

https://x.com/detresfa_/status/1919737693157917018

India issues a NOTAM for a fairly large air exercise along the southern section of its border with Pakistan
Date 07-08 May 2025

Hold multiple exercises each day and every day.

One exercise will transition into an actual strike.

Pakistan will not know when and which one will be the actual strike.

[Ashokk]

https://x.com/detresfa_/status/1919737693157917018

Hold multiple exercises each day and every day.

One exercise will transition into an actual strike.

Pakistan will not know when and which one will be the actual strike.

Meanwhile Pakistan keeps a hawk's eye on Indian airspace using....Flightradar24

[LakshmanPST]

Hold multiple exercises each day and every day.

One exercise will transition into an actual strike.

Pakistan will not know when and which one will be the actual strike.

I remember Russia did something similar before launching attack on Ukraine...

[fanne]

so did egypt and syria (yom kippur war) when it attacked Israel and almost humbled it. The exercise turned into a real war

[RCase]

https://x.com/Shinchan_Mitsi/status/1919734680275787948 ---> So apparently Indian Rafales went inside Pakistan and had a good 30 minute time.

https://x.com/Ray70409890/status/1919739502832091443 ---> So our jets entered PoK airspace , flew in and around Skardu for 30 mins and returned unscathed! And they managed to do all these while PAF and PA were on the highest level of alert. What happened to the JF-17 Block II detachment at Skardu?

If this did happen ... jai ho!!!
Probably, the fizzalya doesn't have enough fizz to fill the tanks of the bandars!

[williams]

I think there is officially sanctioned smoke and mirror going on. Keep the Pakis guessing and hence stay on alert all the time. The other part I don't understand is given thay have so many AWAC and AEWs why do they need to rely on flightradar 24 Is the Chinese Maal not working?

[Deans]

Our next step should be putting Shimla Agreement in abeyance - as TSP stated the same without formal communication. We should go one step ahead and refer to Pak statements with agreement and formalize the same.
This legally opens up the LOC for grabs.

Yes. A better option than formally waiting for a letter from Pak.

[Deans]

Meanwhile Pakistan keeps a hawk's eye on Indian airspace using....Flightradar24

If Pak's source of into about the IAF is Flightradar, they have a serious problem.

[Deans]

Deans ji, In what aspects it will affect India if we plan to capture territory across LoC or doing continuous artillery fire.

My assumption is that if we take part of POK we don't need the people. If they choose to stay despite warnings of artillery strikes, their fate
should not be our concern. Artillery fire (incl MLRS strikes on Muzaffarabad) will depopulate a large part of POK.
Pak retaliatory fire will affect a smaller portion of J&K's population, not just because the volume of fire is lower, but we have a smaller portion of the state's population within artillery range. Pak will also have to decide if they want to lose whatever goodwill they may have among Muslims in our border villages, by shelling them.
If Pak can't ensure the security of a large part of POK (their AJK province) it is a defeat. Combine this with Punjab's crop being affected this year
by our flooding, then not releasing river water.
I exclude Jammu from the risk of shelling because that will mean firing across the IB, which, in turn, will endanger Sialkot and Lahore.

The exchange of fire will cost Pak a lot more than it costs us. It might deplete Pak stocks to a point where any escalation across the International
border will have the risk of Pak running out of ammo.
We will have the moral high ground among the International community because we are only responding to infiltration attempts across the LOC and responding to Pak covering fire and not invading across the IB. It's irrelevant that we respond to machine gun fire with 155mm shells.
We can follow the Israeli precedent of capturing land by saying that it's `terrorist jumping off points' in POK - a reverse Kargil.

That said, once our river projects are complete, flooding parts of POK will be more effective than shelling it.

[sanjaykumar]

Gilgit Baltistan exchanged for renegotiation of IWT. That should be the negotiation.

And no thanks to muzzafarbad.

[Deans]

Israel has unlimited funds for it.

Deans ji, Israel has decent funding, but unlimited funding is a bit stretch. What they have is a plan of actions to fall back on and avoid all this folding shirt sleeves, twirling mustaches, and all the dramabaazi of getting ready to fight only for the moment and initiative to be fizzed out.

They also need to have funding for their war making capabilities because once their enemies know they do not have the capacity, it's game over for them. At it's peak in the early 70's, they spent 30% of their GDP on defense and this has come down to less than 5% in 2022. I think it currently went back up to 8%. Even at 5% of their GDP, because they invested in their own arms, they plough back a lot of this spending back in their economy and us not doing this is like getting shot by a double barrel gun, each barrel representing money spent on foreign purchases, and lack of funds to learn those crafts.

I was being cynical. There are just too many armchair commentators on social media saying `Look at Israel..."
Since Oct 7, the US spent approx. $23 billion in aid to Israel.
Israel's defence budget excluding US aid will be about $ 30 billion this year.
This money is to fight what is really a lightly armed militia, with no air force, artillery, armour etc.
Certainly, I take your point that we do needless dramabaazi instead of credible plans, but taking on Pak is a far bigger challenge than Israel
vs Hamas or Hezbollah,

[williams]

It looks like Pakis have decided to conduct air raids on civilian infrastructure. GoI is circulating messages to people on how to respond to a air raid in whatsapp. According to official sources there is a 1% chance of a Paki air raid succeeding given certain gaps in our AD coverage. India should have a response plan, but unfortunately there will be civilian casualties on our side as well.

[gakakkad]

^ source ?

[Deans]

No matter what the outcome of a war, the Pak army will spin it as a victory because they didn't lose to a 7 times larger India...
The average Abdul in Pak will be largely unaffected.

The fastest way for the public to feel visible pain is disrupting their water supply, which IWT related projects will do.
I wrote this back in 2016 ( its a summary of a paper to govt on how we should deal with Pak):
https://swarajyamag.com/world/a-new-non ... r-pakistan

Most of Pakistan's economy is generated in the area East of the Indus.
A lot of it can be hit by artillery, or glide bombs or missiles fired from India airspace.
Indus water apart, we can hit 20% of their economy, they can hit 2% of ours.

A small subsidy on our exports of cotton textiles and basmati rice, will badly hurt Pak exports.

[Amber G.]

Meanwhile Important Public Notice from Gurez in Kashmir by Local Administration

Residents living downstream of the Kishanganga Dam are warned that NHPC Limited will carry out reservoir flushing starting at 10:00 AM on 10th May 2025, lasting around 48 hours. Water levels in the river may rise suddenly and significantly. People are urged to stay away from the river and take safety precautions. A siren will be sounded before the release as a warning. Public cooperation is vital for safety.

- SDM Gurez, Kashmir

[williams]

^ source ?

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 928779.cms

But it is all over the internet now.

[Amber G.]

Pakistan Army confirms that 7 Pakistan Army soldiers have been killed in an attack by Baloch rebels in Bolan of Balochistan. BLA claims 14 Pakistan Army soldiers killed in two separate attacks today.
Link: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 25-05-06/.

[Amber G.]

From: NDMA India | राष्ट्रीय आपदा प्रबंधन प्राधिकरण

India's safety begins with You.
Stay Calm, Stay Prepared.
Video please distribute - India's safety begins with you

[williams]

No matter what the outcome of a war, the Pak army will spin it as a victory because they didn't lose to a 7 times larger India...
The average Abdul in Pak will be largely unaffected.

The fastest way for the public to feel visible pain is disrupting their water supply, which IWT related projects will do.
I wrote this back in 2016 ( its a summary of a paper to govt on how we should deal with Pak):
https://swarajyamag.com/world/a-new-non ... r-pakistan

Most of Pakistan's economy is generated in the area East of the Indus.
A lot of it can be hit by artillery, or glide bombs or missiles fired from India airspace.
Indus water apart, we can hit 20% of their economy, they can hit 2% of ours.

A small subsidy on our exports of cotton textiles and basmati rice, will badly hurt Pak exports.

Deans Ji any 2% loss of ours will be blown out by proportion by the opposition INDI alliance. I am not sure if Modi Sarkar is ready for that especially with Bihar election coming this November.

[Amber G.]

India’s Ambassador to Ireland - reply to the Editorial in The Irish Times .

“I

t is bizarre that instead of standing with the innocent victims, The Irish Times has chosen to provide cover fire for the terrorists by charging the Prime Minister Narendra Modi of "rattling sabres" and equating india with Pakistan, the global epicentre of terrorism, known for harbouring UN-designated terrorists and providing a safe haven for many years to Osama bin Laden.

”



Same way India strongly hits out at OIC

[Amber G.]

On diplomatic front: BIG NEWS: PM announces India and the UK have successfully concluded an ambitious and mutually beneficial Free Trade Agreement.!
(The deal is expected to increase bilateral trade by £25.5 billion, UK GDP by £4.8 billion and wages by £2.2 billion each year in the long run: UK statement on conclusion of India UK FTA)

Narendra Modi:

Delighted to speak with my friend PM
@Keir_Starmer
. In a historic milestone, India and the UK have successfully concluded an ambitious and mutually beneficial Free Trade Agreement, along with a Double Contribution Convention. These landmark agreements will further deepen our Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, and catalyse trade, investment, growth, job creation, and innovation in both our economies. I look forward to welcoming PM Starmer to India soon.

[williams]

Pakistan plans to increase the defense budget by 18%. IMF and WB has become the laughing stock by bailing out this country so many times.

[Amber G.]

US House Speaker Johnson statement on Pahalgam terror attack in Kashmir.

“India has to stand against terrorism. We will do everything possible to support those efforts. Trump administration will help India with energy and resources to fight terrorism.

[Amber G.]

Pakistan tries to up ante but UNSC seeks accountability for Pahalgam attack

>>> The UN Security Council held a closed-door meeting regarding rising tensions between India and Pakistan, particularly following a terrorist attack in Pahalgam. Pakistan, a current non-permanent member of the Council, sought to internationalize the issue, but the meeting yielded no substantive outcome in its favor.
The Council members reportedly condemned the Pahalgam attack, sought accountability, and expressed concerns over Pakistan's nuclear rhetoric and missile tests. Some members questioned the possible involvement of the UN-proscribed group Lashkar-e-Taiba in the attack.

The Council did not issue a collective statement, but members individually expressed views. Pakistan's efforts to garner support for its perspective on the Kashmir dispute were unsuccessful, with the Council advising bilateral resolution of issues between India and Pakistan.

[Amber G.]

@husainhaqqani - Pakistan ambassador to US 2008-2011: tweets:

بھارت اور برطانیہ میں آزاد تجارت کا معاہدہ طے پا گیا۔ بھارت 54 مُلکوں سے آزاد تجارت کے معاہدے کر چُکا ہے۔ پاکستان اب تک صرف تُرکی، ملائشیا اور سری لنکا کے ساتھ Free Trade Agreements کر پایا ہے. بس جہاد اور ایٹمی جنگ کی باتیں کروالو !

Translation:

India and the UK have finalized a free trade agreement. India has already signed free trade agreements with 54 countries. Pakistan has only managed to secure Free Trade Agreements with Turkey, Malaysia, and Sri Lanka so far. Just keep talking about jihad and nuclear war!

[Jay]

but taking on Pak is a far bigger challenge than Israel
vs Hamas or Hezbollah,

100% agree on this!

[Amber G.]

Meanwhile Indian PM says this about IWT (India's War against Terror)

Water which once flowed to another country will now be reserved for the benefit of Indians
India’s waters will flow for India, will be retained for India, and will serve the interests of India

[gakakkad]

One factor I always think about . At the end of the day the pakees have nothing to lose .they are worse than a shit hole and how much worse can we even make them . Indians have a lot to lose .

[Rakesh]

One factor I always think about . At the end of the day the pakees have nothing to lose .they are worse than a shit hole and how much worse can we even make them . Indians have a lot to lose .

H&D is prized in Porkistan. Lose that and the Pak Army loses legitimacy to be Supreme Ruler.

This time, the pain has to be visible for the Pak aam junta to see.

[Rakesh]

Going forward, please use this thread only to discuss the geopolitical fallout. New thread started for the military strikes.