Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

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Deans
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by Deans »

Ambar wrote: 17 Jun 2025 23:35
Cain Marko wrote: 17 Jun 2025 20:26 Supposedly mossad hq was struck and director killed?

https://youtu.be/ITlhPYKTNRw?si=ZWUA2s893U93HuIp
Fake news from the usual Indian propaganda peddlers on Turkey/Qatari/Paki payroll. Hindustan Times, Times Of India, OneIndia and more recently WION serve as mouthpieces for global ummah running their every exaggeration and imagination as "news".

Iranian BMs did strike near AMAN and Mossad HQs, one appears to have landed at a nearby parking lot, there were no casualties from this incident. Besides, when the entire Israel is currently living in subterranian shelters, Mossad/AMAN have to be foolish to continue operations from their above surface building while knowing they are prime targets.
It is like saying a missile landed in New Delhi, therefore COAS was killed.
Israeli civilians are expected to get into a shelter within 2 minutes of a warning. That's why there are so few casualties - and that's why our
strikes of 7 May would have failed to kill terrorists, if launched from extreme range.
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by Deans »

Hriday wrote: 17 Jun 2025 21:16
✈️Around 50 fighter jets and aircraft identified and struck missile storage sites and surface-to-surface missile launchers that were ready for launch toward Israel.

With this, we can now say that 𝟭/𝟯 𝗼𝗳 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗜𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗿𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗺𝗲’𝘀 𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗹𝗲 𝗹𝗮𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝗺𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗹𝗲𝗱.
[/quote]

It's unlikely that the total number of aircraft in the Iranian air force, in flyable condition, exceeded 50. All are obsolete. They have not yet
received Russian SU-35s.
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by Hriday »

Lisa wrote: 17 Jun 2025 23:23
Hriday wrote: 17 Jun 2025 21:38 From a well known military technical analyst handle. DFI Lite. See the attached pictures showing the changes in RV path.
https://x.com/DfIlite/status/1933744787 ... 7VYNg&s=19
Capacity to change trejectory is one thing but did it actually hit a given target? Secondly, someone may correct me, but is it not the case that all RV of balistic missiles above a particular range are hypersonic anyway. So where is the invention?

P.S. In the 1940's, even V2 was hypersonic.
Don't know if that missile hit a target. IIRC, the last few barrages from Iran were completely intercepted or fell in the open ground.

About hypersonic missiles, I think you are correct. As per Indranil Roy, a well known flight analyst the term hypersonic missile fits to only for scramjet powered missiles. Not for missile using the gravity to reach hypersonic speed. See his comment about India's hypersonic anti ship missile.
https://x.com/Indrani1_Roy/status/18586 ... 4nmrQ&s=19
India did not enter the "hypersonic missile" group with this missile.
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by Hriday »

I am surprised that it is difficult to find how many missiles are there in each barrage from Iran. Sharing a post from a very popular handle with 792K followers. If anyone can share information please post the link. Well known Israel media is posting in Hebrew language. So have to use translate function after opening each post.

And if the below post is correct then we can say that Iran's option were finished.
https://x.com/DrEliDavid/status/1935058 ... Ww3Rg&s=19
The Islamic Republic is down to launching fewer ballistic missiles each day: 150, 75, 30, 10.

At this rate, in two days they'll just be sending angry tweets to Israel...
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by Ambar »

Hriday wrote: 18 Jun 2025 10:24 I am surprised that it is difficult to find how many missiles are there in each barrage from Iran. Sharing a post from a very popular handle with 792K followers. If anyone can share information please post the link. Well known Israel media is posting in Hebrew language. So have to use translate function after opening each post.

And if the below post is correct then we can say that Iran's option were finished.
https://x.com/DrEliDavid/status/1935058 ... Ww3Rg&s=19
The Islamic Republic is down to launching fewer ballistic missiles each day: 150, 75, 30, 10.

At this rate, in two days they'll just be sending angry tweets to Israel...
Last night's salvo had over 30. I don't think its the lack of missiles (Iran is said to have 3,000+ conservatively) but it is the logistical problem. IAF has near full control of Iranian skies, they are flying drones nonstop to spot the launch sites which are then taken out by jets.
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by Manish_P »

Ambar wrote: 18 Jun 2025 11:12 ...
Last night's salvo had over 30. I don't think its the lack of missiles (Iran is said to have 3,000+ conservatively) but it is the logistical problem. IAF has near full control of Iranian skies, they are flying drones nonstop to spot the launch sites which are then taken out by jets.
The IDF special forces are also active in Iran. They, in addition to the drones and other ISR assets, are relaying info about the mobile launch vehicles and they are getting taken out.

Rumour also report info coming from disgruntled Iranians who want the regime out are also relaying locations to Israeli intelligence handlers (who in some cases posed as Iranians but opposed to the regime). The Israelis have cultivated quite a few opponents of the regime over the recent years.
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by Hriday »

https://x.com/pati_marins64/status/1935 ... Sp5qg&s=19
Iran launched a violent attack on Israeli cities last night, revealing that various areas of the country are no longer covered by anti-aircraft batteries, confirming the lack of defensive missiles I pointed out in a previous publication.

Tel Aviv was the most affected region by the Iranian missiles, where anti-aircraft batteries operated at full capacity, but were unable to stop the Iranian hypersonic missiles that crossed the skies.

At one point, two David's Sling launchers fired 15 missiles in a failed attempt to intercept an Iranian hypersonic missile, which may have been a FATTAH-1.
Despite this, Iran has heavily invested in military technology, especially missiles, defense systems, and radars. The country was among the leading nations publishing research in this area, according to [aspi.org.au/programs/criti…]

Iranian indigenous radars have been able to detect and lock onto Israeli F-35 aircraft, doing so as early as 2019 and again in 2024.
https://x.com/Osint613/status/193521546 ... UFFzQ&s=19
NEW 🔴🔴

US source tells Walll Street Journal: “Israel no longer has many Arrow interceptors”
A YouTube link from Wall Street Journal given below.

https://youtu.be/sFsoWM7wMQM?feature=shared
Video content description.
Iran has more offensive missiles than Israel has interceptors, according to a U.S. official and an analyst familiar with the numbers. The Arrow 3, used to counter long-range ballistic missiles, has been critical in countering attacks from Iran and Yemen in Israel’s airspace and is now in short supply.

WSJ’s Shelby Holliday reports on how the calculus around offensive and defensive missiles is shaping the conflict between Iran and Israel.

Chapters:
0:00 The situation in Israel
0:44 Israel’s layered defense
2:02 Capacity issues
3:23 U.S. draining munitions
4:16 What’s next?
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by Hriday »

From Damien Symon. See the attached pictures in the link.
https://x.com/detresfa_/status/19352049 ... 44iow&s=19
New imagery from Maxar & Planet shows fresh damage at Iran's Tabriz missile base (north), struck once again by Israel - key observation: all underground tunnel entrances have been struck obstructing access to the subterranean facility at this base
https://x.com/detresfa_/status/19346481 ... p0bEw&s=19
These three images define the aftermath of Israel’s strikes on Tehran today - the first, bombing of an underground facility, the second, a strike at the state broadcaster's HQ & the third, an uncontested Hermes UAV circling the capital of Iran
See the 33 second video and map in the link below.
https://x.com/AuroraIntel/status/193425 ... 3fAhA&s=19
Footage circulating social media shows long queues of cars reportedly trying to leave Tehran, cross referencing on Google aligns data to footage.
See the video and photos of UAV in the link below.
https://x.com/AmirIGM/status/1935229778 ... huXRg&s=19
Iranian TV shows wreckage of a Hermes-900 UCAV shot down over Esfahan last night. Gear assembly looks a match to me, as do the flaps.
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by Aldonkar »

A_Gupta wrote: 18 Jun 2025 07:28
S_Madhukar wrote: 18 Jun 2025 04:37 So my question to Yanks on the forum is what is US waiting for ? Will they be using their MOAB ? Or are they waiting for Maverick to come out of retirement and show his skills one last time on Fowdor :rotfl:
Trump is waiting for a Fox News anchor to tell him.
Trump is following a time honoured American tradition. Come into the battle at the 11th hour and claim all the glory. I am of course referring to WW 1 and 2 as the precedents.
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by ricky_v »

S_Madhukar wrote: 18 Jun 2025 04:37 So my question to Yanks on the forum is what is US waiting for ?
either
Image

or this
Image
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by Prem Kumar »

Deans wrote: 16 Jun 2025 17:05 A different way of looking at it:
We fired 38 Brahmos + Scalp at Pak. More than half hit and did so accurately.

Iran had about 20 hits from 250 odd ballistic missiles fired. We can quibble about the numbers, but it looks like >80% intercepted for Israel and
less than 50% for Pak.
Pak fired only 1 confirmed ballistic missile, which we intercepted, but there is not a big enough sample size to say we intercepted 100% of
ballistic missiles.
Where is this "half of them hit" coming from? I am willing to bet that all of them hit & hit accurately

Pakis dont have anything that can intercept the Brahmos and the missile itself is super accurate. If we fired 38 Brahmos, we can be sure that all of them hit. Same with Scalp
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by Hriday »

Several posts from a major OSINT handle with 531K followers. Posting without quote function.
https://x.com/Osint613/status/193534327 ... 9j7tg&s=19
1.
TRUMP: “I TOLD NETANYAHU, ‘KEEP GOING.’”

2.
IRANIAN ATTACK DATA

Iran has launched over 400 ballistic missiles and some 1,000 drones at Israel since the start of the conflict on Friday, according to fresh data from the IDF.

Of the ballistic missiles, just over 20 impacted urban areas in Israel, causing casualties and extensive damage. 24 people have been killed in Israel and more than 500 wounded.

The casualties figures are far below what the IDF anticipated when it planned the operation against Iran, according to military officials.

Of the 1,000 drones, less than 200 reached Israel's borders and entered Israeli airspace. However, not one of the drones impacted Israel. All were either intercepted by the Israeli Air Force and Navy, or fell short before reaching Israel.

3.
Reporter: "Mr. President, what do you say to the Supreme Leader of Iran who says that they will not surrender?"

Trump: "I say, 'Good luck.'"

4.
Trump on Iran: "For 40 years, they've been saying 'death to America,'… If you go back 15 years, I was saying we cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon."

5.
Reporter: Did you give the Iranians an ultimatum?

Trump: Uhhhhh, you could say that. Maybe… the ultimate ultimatum.
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by Hriday »

From Babak Taghvaee

https://x.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/193 ... vEQbQ&s=19
1. See the 20 second video in the link above.

An #Iranian farmer was seen carrying an external fuel tank jettisoned by an #Israeli F-15 Baz multirole fighter near #Isfahan. The jettison indicates the IAF crew likely had to lighten the aircraft to evade an incoming Iranian surface-to-air missile.
#OperationRisingLion #Israel #Iran

2.
Over 1,000 Iranians mostly veterans from the Army and Air Force are acting as JTAC for #Mossad (#Israel Intelligence) in #Iran. Their equipment can be seen left behind. Such as Spike NLOS anti-tank missiles, laser designators, etc.
#OperationRisingLion

3.
#Breaking: The headquarters of #Iran’s police on Rashid Yassemi Street near Vanak Roundabout in #Tehran has been targeted by the #Israel Air Force.
#OperationRisingLion
My comment on Babak Taghvaee posts - So attack on Iran police will help the spies and people can make themselves safer by giving them freedom of movement. Most importantly it helps to grow the rebellion by citizens against the regime.
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by Deans »

Prem Kumar wrote: 18 Jun 2025 17:59
Deans wrote: 16 Jun 2025 17:05 A different way of looking at it:
We fired 38 Brahmos + Scalp at Pak. More than half hit and did so accurately.
Where is this "half of them hit" coming from? I am willing to bet that all of them hit & hit accurately

Pakis dont have anything that can intercept the Brahmos and the missile itself is super accurate. If we fired 38 Brahmos, we can be sure that all of them hit. Same with Scalp
My limited point was that Israel did a better job of intercepting than Pak.
We fired 19 Brahmos (38 missiles in all). My `more than half' is a conservative estimate, assuming each released satellite pic of major
damage was caused by one Brahmos. That number is 11. There are pics we haven't seen and cases of more than one missile, so the number is
between 11 and 19.
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by S_Madhukar »

If Eyeran is indeed defanged then I wonder what are the security implications for Israel and west. Only RIC is left then ?
Israel might not need same level of cooperation with India once a new friendly regime settles in, it will have made its neighbourhood far more secure… until Toorkey starts to get ideas…
Bakis might find themselves less useful or only useful to needle us again …
If Eyeranians do get real freedom I expect to be close to US culturally as well as politically. So US will get more bases and yet with INSTC Eyeran will try to keep Russia also on its side
Either way Chinese proxies have been kicked back, West might think they are on the ascendancy again which can be ominous signs
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by bala »

DJT's message of telling US personnel to leave Iran has had an affect on aam junta of Iran. Most of the aam junta are trying to flee Teheran and get away from the destruction that Israel may plan. The evacuation plan is working. This only means that those close to power will remain and they will be decimated by Israel's air power. China delivered some critical supplies to Iran by flying in their transport aircraft loads. I wonder how they sneaked in despite Israel having total air dominance in Iran. DJT wants unconditional surrender. Many in the US are wanting to put an end once and for all to the threat that Iran is posing to the world. People in the US are tired of hearing hezbollah, hamas and houthis causing unplanned attacks every now and then. Iran defanged means that the Shia faction has been subdued to a large extent. The remaining nations are under the umbrella of US but Saudi A can turn radical any day and then it is back to square A.
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by gakakkad »

How were irans relations with India during the shah era ? Any good reading material on that ?
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by Ambar »

I think Shah visited India twice, once under Nehru and another time under Indira. Our relationship with Iran pre-revolution was no different than what it is today, cordial, pragmatic and mostly trade-based. The biggest difference between now and then is Iran now routinely supports Pakistan's POV on Kashmir, wishful thinking but for that reason alone i'd be glad to see the last of Ayatollahs and his jihadi establishment.
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by gakakkad »

What I am thinking is that getting rid of the Islamic regime will generally be a good thing . I think the concept of Islamic Iran being a friendly nation is oversold . A secular Iran will generally be a good thing got us .I think UAE , bahrain and oman are somewhat reliable allies in the Islamic .

We often view west as a monolithic entity which is not the case .

I think we need to focus on how this is going to pan out and how to make the best use of this opportunity.
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by Jarita »

Ambar wrote: 18 Jun 2025 22:30 I think Shah visited India twice, once under Nehru and another time under Indira. Our relationship with Iran pre-revolution was no different than what it is today, cordial, pragmatic and mostly trade-based. The biggest difference between now and then is Iran now routinely supports Pakistan's POV on Kashmir, wishful thinking but for that reason alone i'd be glad to see the last of Ayatollahs and his jihadi establishment.
That is not accurate

"Around the same time, Iran also provided military and diplomatic support to Pakistan during the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971. "

This present regime is much more pro India and you can forget the port under the Shah.
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by A_Gupta »

A meaningful regime change in Iran requires the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) to be broken. IMO, this may be as difficult as ridding Pakistan of its army.
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by bala »

Just want to sound the caution on regime change in Iran. Under the former shah of Iran the opposition was crushed ruthlessly by the savak (secret police). With the Ayatollahs, Iran went one step further than the savak to wipe out any opposition. In Iraq, the Bath party was maintaining some semblence of tolerance to minorities. After Iraq got wiped out by US, the remnants of the Bath party became ISIS and Al Queida. Iran reverting to so called democratic form of goverance is quite a pipe dream. The odds of something more ruthless is highly probable. Teheran, Mashad and Isfahan may be democratic but the rest of Iran is no way close to such things. Iran has oil wealth.

On India and Iran: India has good relations with Iran. However the chabahar port is a dead end. Nothing of value really. On the nuclear angle, a defangled Iran is good for India. The angle of US/Israel wanting to hit Iran, hindered India during Sindoor, otherwise Pak would have been fully roasted by India in another few days. The Iranians know that Pak is a double crosser and they know that for a few silver pieces Pak has sided with US/Israel.
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by Ambar »

Did Iran start using different type of missiles since yesterday ? Twitterati are reporting over dozen direct impact in central Israel including a direct hit on a large hospital in Beersheba. So many missiles couldn't have escaped interception unless Israel is running out of David's Sling or Iran has changed its strategy.
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by Hriday »

https://x.com/IsraelRadar_com/status/19 ... rOM7w&s=19
Iran’s missile launch strategy:
1. Statistical model done by @yonyww concludes that Iran likely allocated a total of 500-550 missiles for this war; 150-170 were launched on day 1, declining by 50% every day after that. This model largely predicted daily missile counts so far ⬇️

2. The model suggests that Iran prepared for no more than 10 days of fighting, says @OmerAlali7, starting with large barrages that declined significantly later on. At this pace missile fire will die down by next week, he says, unless Iran prepared strategic reserves.
https://x.com/IsraelRadar_com/status/19 ... 268gg&s=19
Israel already achieved more than 50% of its objectives in Iran assault, N12 News reports; Air Force intensified strikes today, attacks on critical regime targets expected to increase in next 24 hours.

Israeli assault in Iran is going better than expected:
1. All nuclear scientists in Israel’s sights eliminated.
2. IDF strikes advancing 3 times faster than planned.
3. 35-40% of Iran’s missiles have been neutralized.
via @kann_news
https://x.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/193 ... LAEog&s=19
#Breaking: Over 50% of #IRGC ballistic missile launchers have been destroyed by #Israel Air Force strikes, cutting their launch capacity to just 4 at a time. In the past 2 hours, 8 missiles were fired at Israel—all intercepted by #IDF Arrow-2/3 and #USArmy THAAD.
#OperationRisingLion
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by Rudradev »

Ambar wrote: 18 Jun 2025 22:30 I think Shah visited India twice, once under Nehru and another time under Indira. Our relationship with Iran pre-revolution was no different than what it is today, cordial, pragmatic and mostly trade-based. The biggest difference between now and then is Iran now routinely supports Pakistan's POV on Kashmir, wishful thinking but for that reason alone i'd be glad to see the last of Ayatollahs and his jihadi establishment.
Completely inaccurate.

The Shah of Iran was overwhelmingly pro-Pakistan during all its conflicts with India. He provided direct military assistance to Pakistan during hot wars with India, including F86 Sabre spares and munitions during the 1965 war, and actual F104 Starfighter aircraft during the 1971 war. He also provided PAF access to Iranian airfields, and Pak navy subs with safe harbour in Iranian port facilities, to protect their assets from Indian action.

The current, post-1979 regime in Iran has never even come close to this level of direct anti-India activity. They make noises about Kashmir here & there but they have also voted against Pak-sponsored motions for the OIC to officially condemn India on the subject of Kashmir.

They aren't "friends" of India but the US-sponsored Shah regime was an out-and-out enemy of India.
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by Deans »

Deans wrote: 18 Jun 2025 21:01
My limited point was that Israel did a better job of intercepting than Pak.
We fired 19 Brahmos (38 missiles in all). My `more than half' is a conservative estimate, assuming each released satellite pic of major
damage was caused by one Brahmos. That number is 11. There are pics we haven't seen and cases of more than one missile, so the number is
between 11 and 19.
A more interesting comparison may be of drones.
Both India and Israel intercepted almost every drone aimed at them. The difference was Iranian drones had to cover 1500 km to get to Israel
giving Israel and the US enough time to plan interception, aided by Jordan.
Drones targeting us covered barely 50km, so our reaction time was much less. We did not use costly Arrow/Iron Dome missiles to intercept.
Pak used newer drones, whereas there was a wealth of info on Iranian drones, thanks to their designs being used by Russia and the same drones
by the Houthis.
We faced a tougher drones challenge than Israel and we did just as well.

Both India and Israel were as good in getting their drones to hit enemy targets. Again, the difference is Israel succeeded against a very weak
Iranian air defence and local help. We succeeded against a (on paper) a sophisticated Chinese-Pak air defence.
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by Deans »

Jarita wrote: 19 Jun 2025 01:05
Ambar wrote: 18 Jun 2025 22:30 I think Shah visited India twice, once under Nehru and another time under Indira. Our relationship with Iran pre-revolution was no different than what it is today, cordial, pragmatic and mostly trade-based. The biggest difference between now and then is Iran now routinely supports Pakistan's POV on Kashmir, wishful thinking but for that reason alone i'd be glad to see the last of Ayatollahs and his jihadi establishment.
That is not accurate

"Around the same time, Iran also provided military and diplomatic support to Pakistan during the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971. "

This present regime is much more pro India and you can forget the port under the Shah.
I lived and worked in Iran in 2000, I had the opportunity of talking politics with Iranians at senior levels. In brief:
The centres of power are:

1. The clerics backed by the Revolutionary guard. They are only guided by Islamist ideology. The only difference is that it is Shia, vs the Sunni ideology we face from Pak. India may sometimes be seen by them an ally of convenience against the Sunni world. They are also unpopular among
the youth, middle class and urban population.

2. The elected Govt. This is our best bet. They are more moderate than the clerics but anti Western. We can be useful partners for Oil, projects
where they want to balance China or the West, solutions for lower income people etc. Under the current regime, the elected President has no real power.

3. The Bazaris, or business/ trader class. These are the people who have kept the economy going during sanctions. Will favour India if they see good business opportunities which will be sanction proof in future. Their money is handed out of Dubai, where they are comfortable dealing with Indians.
A smaller group are based in the US and might be financing the Iranian opposition. The bazaris include the small Sikh community whom the Iranians respect.

Iran probably has the best educated population among the Muslim countries of the Middle East.
The US is trying to install the Shah's son - the crown prince, who is probably the only person more unpopular than the clerics, among Iranians.
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by Dilbu »

Deansji why is unkil going with the crown prince who will surely bring back the unsavory memories of previous Shah regime. Is it too difficult for them to find another guy from Iran itself, like Younus in BD?
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by chetak »

Rudradev wrote: 19 Jun 2025 14:08
Ambar wrote: 18 Jun 2025 22:30 I think Shah visited India twice, once under Nehru and another time under Indira. Our relationship with Iran pre-revolution was no different than what it is today, cordial, pragmatic and mostly trade-based. The biggest difference between now and then is Iran now routinely supports Pakistan's POV on Kashmir, wishful thinking but for that reason alone i'd be glad to see the last of Ayatollahs and his jihadi establishment.
Completely inaccurate.

The Shah of Iran was overwhelmingly pro-Pakistan during all its conflicts with India. He provided direct military assistance to Pakistan during hot wars with India, including F86 Sabre spares and munitions during the 1965 war, and actual F104 Starfighter aircraft during the 1971 war. He also provided PAF access to Iranian airfields, and Pak navy subs with safe harbour in Iranian port facilities, to protect their assets from Indian action.

The current, post-1979 regime in Iran has never even come close to this level of direct anti-India activity. They make noises about Kashmir here & there but they have also voted against Pak-sponsored motions for the OIC to officially condemn India on the subject of Kashmir.

They aren't "friends" of India but the US-sponsored Shah regime was an out-and-out enemy of India.

Rudradev ji,

we also forget the very unhealthy influence that the eyeraanian shias forcefully exerted on India's internal and external policy making, while our "leaders" of yore sat quietly and watched these malicious forces hasten the nationalistic decay

they practically dictated India's responses (at the UN, for instance) by exerting evil influence over the local shia population and their leadership, just as the saudis had a similar malevolent influence over our policies by psyching up the local sunni lot, who them took to the streets to force the GoI into a specific course(s) of action as per their (eyeraanian and/or saudi) geopolitical requirements

after Modi ji came to power and rightfully prioritised the civilizational and cultural character, clout, and political heft of the majority, as is only right, these two malignant kingdoms receded into the background and became irrelevant, as did the BIF which toned down its agenda. That's why there is so much clamour about palestine in the presstitute, and leftist DDM and the jihadis
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by A_Gupta »

So this is what the Rising Lion refers to?
(Wiki image of pre-1979 Iranian flag):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pahlavi_I ... –1980).svg
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by A_Gupta »

Various sources:
"We would like to particularly warn Washington against military intervention in the situation," Russian foreign ministry's spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told reporters.
E.g.,
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 025-06-18/
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by Amber G. »

xpost: (I am following Iran's nuclear events here just for records and learnings0
Israeli intends to target Iran's Arak heavy water reactor, after issuing a warning for residents of the nearby cities of Arak and Khondab in central Iran to evacuate for their safety.
Image
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by SRajesh »

Looks like they have already hit a reactor as per Sky news!!
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by Amber G. »

^^^ Can you post more details (or link)..TIA
FWIW - My take.. The reported evacuation near Iran’s Arak heavy water reactor sounds dramatic, but in physical terms, any real danger is likely limited—heavy water isn’t radioactive, .. it houses spent fuel, a strike would have minimal radiological impact. The move is more symbolic or strategic than an actual nuclear hazard, much like WWII’s costly sabotage of Norway’s heavy water, which hindsight showed wasn’t essential.

(Physics-wise, damage to Arak would likely cause limited environmental harm—not a major radiological event. But symbolically and strategically, it's a high-value target in the nuclear narrative.. putting more of my thoughts in nuclear dhaga)
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by SRajesh »

Some confusion whether Busher was targeted (only functioning N power plant)
Initially Isreal said yes then backtracked as multiple news channels are talking about potential Chernobyl type disaster
All in the fog of war
No clarity Madamji
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by skumar »

Questions for Iran
Does Iran still maintain its official policy of the destruction of the state of Israel and cultivating terrorist groups in support of this policy?
Does any state deserve to have this existential threat hanging over it for decades?
When will Iran abjure this stupid policy openly?

Questions for Israel
Do Netanyahu and Israel have a 30+ year history of lying about the Iranian nuclear program - about it being "almost ready" or "will be ready in 1-2 years"? Has Israel not cried wolf too often?
Did Netanyahu lie in the UN about Iraqi WMDs that was one of the many factors that cost at least half a million lives?
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by skumar »

DD Cyprus1Click shows some live feeds of the Tel Aviv skyline. Sometimes this feed also shows Haifa, Jerusalem and other locations.
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by Amber G. »

Iran’s nuclear architecture spans civilian (Bushehr), dual-use (Natanz, Fordow), and plutonium-capable (Arak) facilities.

Natanz: Iran’s main uranium enrichment complex, originally housing ~19,000 IR‑1 centrifuges and upgraded later with advanced IR‑2m, IR‑4, IR‑6 models. Enrichment currently reaches ~60% U‑235—close to weapons-grade
Underground expansion underway under “Pickaxe Mountain”.

Fordow: Built inside a mountain near Qom; originally ~3,000 centrifuges for 20% enrichment for medical use. After JCPOA it was converted for non-enrichment research. Post-2019, enrichment resumed—now up to 60% with advanced centrifuges.

Bushehr: The only civilian-power PWR (VVER-1000) on the Persian Gulf. Russia supplies fuel and removes spent fuel, fully under IAEA oversight (Hopefully not been targeted due to low proliferation risk.)

Arak (IR‑40): Originally a 40 MW heavy-water reactor meant for plutonium production. Under JCPOA it was disabled/converted to a reactor with reduced plutonium output. Core remains inactive; heavy-water plant continues under IAEA safeguards. (IMO, logically/military/scientifically very little to gain from attacking this.)
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Re: Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

Post by Deans »

Dilbu wrote: 19 Jun 2025 17:33 Deansji why is unkil going with the crown prince who will surely bring back the unsavory memories of previous Shah regime. Is it too difficult for them to find another guy from Iran itself, like Younus in BD?
They made the same mistakes in Iraq and Afghanistan. In Iraq they found a dissident - Ahmad Chalabi, who told the US the Iraqi people would welcome
then as liberators. He was made PM after the fall of Saddam. Later he was sacked and was suspected of being an Iranian agent.
In Afghanistan, the real power behind the govt was a Unocal executive, appointed Ambassador to Afghanistan - Zalmay Khalilzad. His crony Karzai was
retained as President in rigged election. Unocal was working with the Taliban to build a pipleline from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan and then Pak.

There is a large anti Khameni expat group of Iranians living in the US, but are not not anti Iran and won't sell out the country to US interests and
there is no one who has the credentials to be a leader. They are also disliked by the other Bazaris who have stayed back in Iran.

So US has consistently made the wrong choices in the region.
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