Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

[SRajesh]

Ayotullah has come out of the hiding and says:
1. Isreal brought to knees
2. US President is wrong in saying that Nuclear facilities damaged badly
3. We shall never surrender
4. We have hit US base in Qatar
Wow this is not going to stop by the looks of it.
Or atleast the rhetoric will continue for ever.

[Cain Marko]

Ayotullah has come out of the hiding and says:
1. Isreal brought to knees
2. US President is wrong in saying that Nuclear facilities damaged badly
3. We shall never surrender
4. We have hit US base in Qatar
Wow this is not going to stop by the looks of it.
Or atleast the rhetoric will continue for ever.

This is Pakistan 2.0. they never lose.. Only rhetoric, game is over, emperor is nanga

[Cain Marko]

Now the game will change. Iran will either withdraw from the NPT and make a nuke, provided it can do so faster than the US and Israel can strike. Or else other less dire options.

US and Israel can strike almost overnight, Iran has zero answers or options. Even if they stored away the enriched maal, they will still need to rebuild their installations and facilities, which will take time. This ain't Noko with China giving cover. Iran has Israel's rather elaborate Intel infrastructure keeping a close watch with the US not too far away.

[Cyrano]

The only thing missing is a promotion with a grander title like Maha(aya)tollah or something like that

[bala]

Compared to the barrage of fake news claiming Fordow and other places hit by the US did not do any damage to Iran, the Pentagon is briefing the press.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Air Force General Dan Caine brief the press at the Pentagon, addressing recent U.S. military actions, including Operation Midnight Hammer targeting Iranian nuclear sites, and ongoing global security concerns.

How U.S. Bombed Iran’s Nuclear Sites: Pentagon Reveals Full Details

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8QPETpkTvI

Added later wherein Pete Hegseth trashes the fake news which leaped into conclusions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWTpjwaX4NA

[SRajesh]

The only thing missing is a promotion with a grander title like Maha(aya)tollah or something like that

Cyranoji
Only higher for him as a Shia is like Imam ( like Ali or Hussain etc) or Mahdi
And if any of these bestowed then he becomes Wajib-ul-Cutlet as far as Sunni and some Shia segments are concerned

[bala]

One of things that hasn't been talked out much is China's entanglement in Iran. China has invested a lot in Iran and owns 89% of certain oil extraction facilities in Iran so that its supply of oil is smooth. With Iran in shatters, this investment (which came about due to nuclear and missile cooperation with Iran) is in the tanks. DJT has signed a deal with China on US trade, mainly to tide over rare earth supply for the US. At the same time DJT has told china it is free to buy Iran's oil (keeping Hormuz strait open and free) with a caveat that it has to buy US oil too. This would equalize any concessions from Iranian oil that China may get. Currently Iran is under turmoil and may not look to giving any concessions, since the China maal in AD/missiles are kinda of useless junk. China also approached Russia for plunking down a Siberia to China oil pipeline and asked Putin to make this happen. However Russia is no slouch in negotiations and demanded that China invest in extraction of oil in russia and pay for the pipeline to get subsidized oil flowing. Russia is also wanting China to invest in Russian industry and manufacture things in Russia. China is currently facing economic turmoil, its investment in many nations including Iran, Afghanistan, Pak etc are in ruins. It does not have money for any more investments. China is certainly facing a crisis in its credibility around the world at large.

[Amber G.]

France, Germany and the United Kingdom condemn threats against the Director General of the IAEA Rafael Grossi and reiterate our full support to the Agency and the DG in carrying out their mandate.

[Amber G.]

Background from a U.S. physicist — quick reality check

Not here to argue politics, and definitely not interested in feeding trolls—but as someone with a background in nuclear physics and who’s followed the Iran file closely (including IAEA reports and technical assessments), I can’t help but notice the sheer amount of speculation and exaggeration being thrown around lately. Especially from folks taking Trump’s every tweet or off-the-cuff comment as gospel. So here’s a reality check on some of those claims, grounded in what we actually know. Happy to respond to respectful questions or discussion.

I want to call out some of the more out there claims Trump’s been making lately about the strikes on Iran.

Let’s just say a lot of what he’s been throwing around is either flat-out wrong or wildly speculative. Here's the breakdown, based on what we actually know from the IAEA, U.S. intel assessments, and technical experts:

Claim: “We destroyed Iran’s entire nuclear program.”
→ Not true.

The IAEA and U.S. intelligence both say that key enrichment facilities like Fordow—which are buried deep underground—are still intact. And crucially, Iran still holds enough 60% enriched uranium to make several bombs. No, that’s not weapons-grade yet—but it’s dangerously close, and could be upgraded fairly quickly.

Also, you can bomb buildings, but you can’t bomb away knowledge. The scientists, engineers, and their technical infrastructure are still there. Bottom line: the core of the program survived.

Claim: “Iran had nuclear weapons and we stopped them from using it.”
→ Flat-out false.

There is no evidence—NONE—that Iran had built a bomb or crossed the weaponization threshold. The IAEA has been monitoring this for years. Yes, Iran pushed enrichment levels up (alarmingly so), but no bomb’s been built, let alone deployed. Saying “we stopped them from using it” is just not backed by any credible data.

Claim: “Iran’s nuclear program is gone and won’t come back.”
→ Wishful thinking at best.

According to Rafael Grossi (head of the IAEA), Iran could restart enrichment within months if it chooses to. Their stockpile is still largely intact, they know how to rebuild cascades, and their underground facilities—especially at Fordow—are still usable. It’s a delay, not a dismantling.

Claim: “There was no radiation because everything was destroyed safely.”
→ Technically misleading.

There was no radiation leak, but that’s because there’s nothing in these facilities that would release high radiation . Enrichment plants deal with uranium hexafluoride gas and centrifuges, not reactor-grade fuel or spent fuel rods. So of course there was no radiation—it’s not because the strikes were surgical; it’s because of the basic physics.

Claim: “We had full support of the international community.”
→ Nope.

The U.S. acted unilaterally, without UN Security Council authorization. Most of the EU was not on board. In fact, many European allies have publicly criticized the strikes and are calling for renewed diplomacy, not escalation. India did not endorsed it. Even the IAEA is urging caution and access—not cheering from the sidelines.

The idea that the strikes “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program is more campaign fantasy than technical reality. The damage was real, but limited. Iran’s breakout potential is delayed—but very much alive.

Happy to clarify or go deeper if anyone wants the gritty technical stuff, but that’s the honest, physics-grounded read.

Amber G.

[Amber G.]

Compared to the barrage of fake news claiming Fordow and other places hit by the US did not do any damage to Iran, the Pentagon is briefing the press.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Air Force General Dan Caine brief the press at the Pentagon, addressing recent U.S. military actions, including Operation Midnight Hammer targeting Iranian nuclear sites, and ongoing global security concerns.

How U.S. Bombed Iran’s Nuclear Sites: Pentagon Reveals Full Details

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8QPETpkTvI

Added later wherein Pete Hegseth trashes the fake news which leaped into conclusions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWTpjwaX4NA

Let’s get real here. No serious analyst — IAEA, U.S. intel, or independent experts — said the strikes did “no damage.” The Pentagon itself confirmed real, visible hits on above-ground facilities at Natanz and Esfahan. That’s never been in dispute.


But claiming that Fordow was destroyed, or that Iran’s nuclear program was “obliterated”, is just hype. The underground enrichment halls at Fordow are still standing — by the Pentagon’s own admission — and Iran’s 60% enriched uranium stockpile (which is the real breakout threat) was likely moved beforehand and not destroyed.

Also, let’s stop parroting “there was no radiation, so the strikes were perfect” as if that proves anything. That kind of statement only works if you don’t understand the basic physics. Iran doesn’t have a reactor program with high-level radioactive fuel. These were centrifuge halls, not Chernobyl. There was never going to be significant radiation unless you bombed a fuel rod pool — which doesn’t exist there. The “no radiation” line proves nothing beyond the speaker’s lack of technical grounding.

Even the IAEA Director General, Rafael Grossi, says Iran can resume enrichment in months, and their breakout capability — i.e., the time needed to produce one bomb’s worth of weapons-grade uranium — is still measured in weeks, not years.

Bottom line: the strikes delayed Iran’s nuclear capability. They did not destroy it. That’s not fake news — that’s just the conclusion of every serious technical agency that’s looked at the situation. If you want to claim otherwise, bring data — not campaign slogans.

Please do see the earlier post by me. (Technically much more details).

[bala]

Let’s get real here.

Look you don't need to respond to essentially what I am reporting as coming out of the mouths of people in charge. They have a version which people have to take into consideration, not fake CNN/NYT/Reuters reporting.

Bottom line: the strikes delayed Iran’s nuclear capability. They did not destroy it.

That is a ridiculous conclusion after seeing actual satellite pictures and what damage GBUs can cause. I will let both nations Israel/US deal with the ramifications of their own actions, especially after the Dems on Bidenwa watch let Iran's nuclear ambition increase to this level and did nothing with the JCPOA that Obummer signed previously. Both Israel/US have the Onus, not some officials or tech people's assessment (it is a political issue with military ramifications). Israel will be be wiped of the map if 1 nuclear bomb is released upon them.

Please do see the earlier post by me. (Technically much more details).

Yes, you have valid points and I appreciate them from a technical perspective. However this is beyond technical, it is a question of existence of a tiny nation called Israel.

[Amber G.]

Watching new victory celebratiions .. Looks like, kid you not.. After complete victory over Iran's centrifuges ..Trump has new 'Victory'..