Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

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vonkabra
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by vonkabra »

Hari Sud wrote: 03 Jul 2025 18:42 He never unequivocally stated that Pakistan lost—any such suggestion was buried in vague or cleverly worded phrasing.
While I agree that we should not give too much credence to Western accounts and I don't agree with everything TC has claimed, he did mention it's a "clear cut victory for India". I think the reason he's become so popular in India is that he managed to come up with a clear cut military analysis based on the complete timeline of events (even if it was with flaws and without too much evidence) which our own analysts have still not come up with.
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by vonkabra »

For those people complaining that the Pakis will never admit to being defeated, it's nothing unique to them. From the WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/denial-runs ... nts_sector

To summarize, the same thing has been repeatedly done by Egypt, Syria, Iran and Iraq. The article concludes that the net result of this self delusionary behavior is that they never learnt from their mistakes and and ended up losing future wars as well.
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/o ... 2025-07-04
China gave Pak live inputs on our vectors during Op Sindoor: Top Army general
India Today News Desk
New Delhi,UPDATED: Jul 4, 2025
Sharangee Dutta, New Delhi, Jul 4, 2025

Top Army general Rahul R Singh said that Pakistan received real-time inputs about India's important vectors from China during Operation Sindoor, as he reiterated that New Delhi tackled a double whammy at the border during the four-day conflict.
Lieutenant General Singh, Deputy Chief of Army Staff (Capability Development & Sustenance), said that India dealt with three adversaries at the border, including Turkey also in the category. "Pakistan was at the front. China was providing all possible support...Turkey also played an important role in providing the type of support it did," he said during his address at an event organised by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry (FICCI) in Delhi.
:"When DGMO-level talks were going on, Pakistan actually was mentioning that we know your...important vector is primed and it is ready for action. I would request you to pull it back. So, they were getting live inputs...from China," Singh said.
The general highlighted that statistics from the last five years show that it was no surprise that China assisted Pakistan. Singh said that by supplying equipment to Pakistan, China is able to test its weapons against others.
"If you are to look at statistics, in the last five years, 81% of the military hardware that Pakistan is getting is all Chinese...China is able to test its weapons against other weapons, so it's like a live lab available to them," the top Army general told the event.
.......
Gautam
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Hari Sud »

More and more information has started to trickle down about operation Sindoor:

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 59833.html

This article gives information about direct Chinese involvement in the mini war.
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Lisa »

vonkabra wrote: 04 Jul 2025 13:01 For those people complaining that the Pakis will never admit to being defeated, it's nothing unique to them. From the WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/denial-runs ... nts_sector

To summarize, the same thing has been repeatedly done by Egypt, Syria, Iran and Iraq. The article concludes that the net result of this self delusionary behavior is that they never learnt from their mistakes and and ended up losing future wars as well.
This is exactly why Hamas will not surrender. It will make the obvious, obvious.
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by A_Gupta »

Hamas is not surrendering because the continuation of the war keeps strengthening the anti-Israel factions in Israel’s most important partner countries.
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by drnayar »

g.sarkar wrote: 04 Jul 2025 14:37 https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/o ... 2025-07-04

The general highlighted that statistics from the last five years show that it was no surprise that China assisted Pakistan. Singh said that by supplying equipment to Pakistan, China is able to test its weapons against others.
"If you are to look at statistics, in the last five years, 81% of the military hardware that Pakistan is getting is all Chinese...China is able to test its weapons against other weapons, so it's like a live lab available to them," the top Army general told the event.
.......
Gautam
Good opportunity for America and Europe to give free weapons to India, to test against chinese equipment , we can share test data ! ..
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by NRao »

‘China providing live updates…’, Lt Gen Rahul Singh shares ‘crucial lesson’ from Operation Sindoor

At the event 'New Age Military Technologies' organised by FICCI, Deputy Chief of Army Staff (Capability Development & Sustenance), Lt Gen Rahul R Singh explained the rule of China in detail, and mentioned the crucial lessons to be learned by India from Operation Sindoor. He emphasized on indigenization of defence technology and being self-sufficient in key components.

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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by VinodTK »

It is time for india to train scientists from Taiwan in no-clear fire cracker technology and as a graduation gift give them a dozen fire crackers, to test and keep them warm.
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by bala »

Lt Gen Rahul R Singh mentions four and quickly corrected it to 3 - pak, china and turkey. I think he meant to include the US helping pak indirectly with things like F-16 and of course no one knows for sure the nuclear angle. Supply chain bottleneck in India needs to be addressed. In Sindoor, the AD indigenous equipment made a huge difference. Components supplied to make such equipment is however imported and is another area for India to shield itself from the vagaries of supply constraints. Much more is needed to bolster the AD cover for India and getting this to near 100% is the goal.

One thing of concern is how is China getting real time feed of war information on India. They are moles in the system giving them information. Satellites etc can only give some information. India has the capability to jam Beidou and GPS. This is one area India has to think through and come up with counter measures.
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Hari Sud »

I agree that there were four adversaries at India - Pakistan war

Pakistan
China
Turkey
US

With US in its corner, Pakistan was able to manufacture radiation leak incident.
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by NRao »

bala wrote: 04 Jul 2025 20:08 Lt Gen Rahul R Singh mentions four and quickly corrected it to 3 - pak, china and turkey. I think he meant to include the US helping pak indirectly with things like F-16 and of course no one knows .
.........

I *think* the US lost a few at Nur Khan and Murid (C4I) and China lost a few at Skardu.

Let us see.
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by bala »

The current situation with Pak is rather pathetic, they lost their AWACs, many aircrafts, C&C and more. The direct ally party nations aiding Pak are the only help they have. Just in case AssIm Manure tries another stunt with India, then India will not hesitate to finish the Pak Army for good. This warning was given directly by EAM Jaisankar to the US in the Quad meeting. The China factor is rather shaky for Pak since the Chinese are facing internal struggle and the PLA supplied equipment is for naught. In Myanmar the rebels used a shoulder fired weapon on a PLAF aircraft and brought it down. The mighty chinese are looking pathetic day by day and their equipment is rubbish. Dalai Lama announcement is hurting their H&D big time and if India says that Tibet issue is not resolved then China's CCP will be hurt politically which is even more stronger than PLA losing. China does not have the wherewithal to fight such battles. With the US on trade, China has capitulated and agreed with most of the US demands including rare earth supply, Emperor had no say in the terms.

BTW there are rumours that Pak army internally is revolting against AssIm Manure and his Kheti maarosala title. Previously such titles means that a new Chief of staff is appointed for the army. The contradictions will eat up Pak, let alone the internal segration of BLA, TTP, Sindhesh and so on.
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Agasthi »

Quoting my post just a few posts before the links to the Lt. Gen Rahul Singh's talks were posted. Again cryptic messages that raises more questions than closure.
My observation from the information warfare from the two conflicts is that hitting back civilian areas (Poonch, Tel Aviv, Haifa) or cryptic messages from Indian mil. allowed Iran and Pakistan to claim a false equivalence of victory.
But towards the end, his message points to the chicken and egg problem. BRF has been championing for ages that indigenization and R&D takes time and orders need to be in bulk to build an Indian MIC. They need to be nurtured and supported for Indian industry is nascent in these areas and can't be expected to churn out stuff like others. For all the talk, the AMCA for example is to be 120 split between two vendors. Production engineering and economies of scale is poor.

Batch manufacturing has been the forte of Defense PSU's; it is perhaps a good strategy for MSME's in the private sector but you might be constrained handling a two front war if it becomes real. Notice, he mentions that Private sector wasn't able to deliver the numbers in a week because of chinks in the supply chain. Silver lining :D, at least they are recognizing such issues now. Both PSU and Pvt. Sector can't deliver items without a consistent engagement strategy. PSU's can do start-stop-start but is suicidal for a private manufactory.
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Amber G. »

^^^ (re)posting Glad how Indian Army officers speak frankly, honestly and to the point.
(another link)

At the event 'New Age Military Technologies' organised by FICCI, Deputy Chief of Army Staff (Capability Development & Sustenance), Lt Gen Rahul R Singh says, "Air defence and how it panned out during the entire operation was important... This time, our population centres were not quite addressed, but next time, we need to be prepared for that... We had one border and two adversaries, actually three. Pakistan was in the front. China was providing all possible support. 81% of the military hardware with Pakistan is Chinese... China is able to test its weapons against other weapons, so its like a live lab available to them. Turkey also played an important role in providing the type of support it did... When DGMO-level talks were on, Pakistan had the live updates of our important vectors, from China... We need a robust air defence system..."
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Amber G. »

Turkish Media Claim: India offers long-range missile to Greece
— Turkish outlets allege the missile is intended to “TARGET Ankara,” calling it a response to Turkey’s alliance with Pakistan.
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by ramana »

Agasthi wrote: 03 Jul 2025 12:32 I'm trying to compile a timeline of the 88 hour operation sindoor. Q for gurus? There were reports on twitter and the links below are indicative of a Mirage 5 and a JF17 shot over the Kashmir valley (not Jammu). In fact, Shiv Aroor had reported this as well.

Q1: Since this was on our territory, shouldn't there be bodies or PoW's? Its been more than a month and only the BSF and a Pak ranger were returned via the Attari border.

Q2: Sending a Mirage 5 - desperation or incorrigible belief? And it was able to bypass the ADS to reach Srinagar. What does that indicate?

Q3: Hypothetical - Following Modi Doctrine, does that give us the basis to do a firebombing campaign of say Lahore courtesy Pinaka and other artillery systems? They attacked Poonch civilian areas without any compunctions. Assuming that we would be able to pre-empt them doing it on say Amritsar or Jammu.

Following the Iran-Israel war, the reactions of Pakistan and Iran have been quite similar with victory parades and such. Such societies as BRF has pointed out repeatedly place a premium on H&D. When Operation Sindoor 2.0 commences, India after it has finished with military targets should target bringing down targets of high symbolic value but lower down on the escalation ladder like felling the Minar-e-Pakistan or Jinnah's mausoleum for example. That should affect the momin psych a bit.


https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/ ... -07-988993

https://idrw.org/indian-army-confirms-p ... n-sindoor/
Agasthi, Here is an X video on the Mirage and JF-17. It was near Bhimber in Pakistan

https://x.com/defencealerts/status/1939 ... C6leA&s=19
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by gakakkad »

Per OSint sources on x , the sipri year book confirms that porki nook nudeness was further enhanced in op sindoor.

I am unable to open the original source because it needs subscription. Wonder if someone can access it via madarsa . Amberg might have access .
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Cyrano »

Trump has for the nth time said that he brokered the peace deal between India and Pakistan. This is not just credit jeevi orange man blabbering. I think this is about maintaining a degree of pressure on India to not go for any military action on a gravely injured Pak for a while to come, like a year or two.

It's not that the US has any rediscovered love for Pak or world peace. It's about getting the breathing space they need to rebuild lost assets in Pak. Without those assets - men, machines, bunkers, nook stuff ityadi the US risks losing leverage on India and the subcontinent and West Asia for it's own machinations.

With op Sindoor I believe India has cut off Pak's balls and, perhaps a bit inadvertently, shoved them into unkil's mouth. Unkil can neither swallow not spit out.
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by bala »

Ex-CIA John Kiriakou makes this amazing claim that Pak nukes are under the command and control of US General in this Aadi Achint YT, listen to his speech...

Effectively Pak is nuke nanga and India can rest easy. This was in SIPRI report.



// all these times, the CIA and US have conned the world that Pak has nukes. They co-opted their other crime partner called China into this hoax. The business of test firing of US/China nukes after 1998 India nuke test and claiming it was Pak nukes must be this century's biggest hoax committed on the world at large. People like SIPRI have published equal equal nukes between India and Pak etc.
// just pause for awhile: why would a nation with its so called self created nukes entrust another nation to have control on them.
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by vera_k »

I can believe this given recent events with Pak generals showing up at terrorist funerals.
Curiouser things have happened, but -

1. How have these terrorist generals not passed on nukes to Iran?

2. How haven't half a dozen of these generals not landed in the US with a little bit of nuke material each to put together a bomb on US soil?, and

3. Why is it that the US is unconcerned about the possibility of #2 above, when mere suspicion of a WMD was enough to bomb Saddam's Iraq?
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by drnayar »

Pakistan is a fake nation controlled by an army that owes its allegiance to the American deep state .. India can do as it pleases at the next conflict..
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by drnayar »

vera_k wrote: 06 Jul 2025 00:18 I can believe this given recent events with Pak generals showing up at terrorist funerals.
Curiouser things have happened, but -

1. How have these terrorist generals not passed on nukes to Iran?

2. How haven't half a dozen of these generals not landed in the US with a little bit of nuke material each to put together a bomb on US soil?, and

3. Why is it that the US is unconcerned about the possibility of #2 above, when mere suspicion of a WMD was enough to bomb Saddam's Iraq?
The terrorist generals do not control nukes , they have the American nuke umbrella
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Amber G. »

bala wrote: 05 Jul 2025 22:38 Ex-CIA John Kiriakou makes this amazing claim that Pak nukes are under the command and control of US General in this Aadi Achint YT, listen to his speech...

Effectively Pak is nuke nanga and India can rest easy. This was in SIPRI report.
---
// all these times, the CIA and US have conned the world that Pak has nukes. They co-opted their other crime partner called China into this hoax. The business of test firing of US/China nukes after 1998 India nuke test and claiming it was Pak nukes must be this century's biggest hoax committed on the world at large. People like SIPRI have published equal equal nukes between India and Pak etc.
// just pause for awhile: why would a nation with its so called self created nukes entrust another nation to have control on them.
Okay… that’s a massive claim. If it were even halfway true, it would rewrite everything we thought we knew about nukes in the region. But let’s be real—this sounds more like a plot twist from a Netflix thriller than anything backed by hard evidence.

Yeah, John Kiriakou said it. He’s ex-CIA, sure—but that doesn’t make him an infallible truth-teller. He’s said a lot of wild stuff over the years. Some of it important, some of it... let’s just say, creative. This feels like the latter.

And about that SIPRI report—please. It doesn’t say anything close to “US generals control Pakistan’s nukes.” SIPRI reports estimates, known capabilities, delivery systems—stuff you can verify. Not cloak-and-dagger control handovers. So let’s not twist a data report into a Tom Clancy novel.

Now the bit about Pakistan never having nukes, and all their tests being US/China fakes? That one’s Olympic-level mental gymnastics. The 1998 tests were very real—recorded by seismic stations worldwide. Independent analysts—Indian, American, global—confirmed them as actual nuclear detonations. You can’t fake underground shockwaves that easily.

And seriously—what self-proclaimed nuclear power hands over control of its arsenal to another country? ...

Look, no one’s underestimating Pakistan’s recklessness or history of shady moves, or its ignorance/stupidity —not at all. But this whole theory? That it’s all been a decades-long scam, with fake nukes and foreign generals calling the shots? It’s just too far into conspiracy land.

Criticize the dysfunction, question the safeguards, sure. But let’s not confuse suspicion with fan fiction.
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Amber G. »

Just for perspective Kiriakou in the past claimed that Osama bin Laden was killed long before the Abbottabad raid... he *routinely* claims other foreign governments directly controlled by US/CIA.. or kills journalists like Hastings etc..
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Amber G. »

vera_k wrote: 06 Jul 2025 00:18 I can believe this given recent events with Pak generals showing up at terrorist funerals.
Curiouser things have happened, but -

1. How have these terrorist generals not passed on nukes to Iran?

2. How haven't half a dozen of these generals not landed in the US with a little bit of nuke material each to put together a bomb on US soil?, and

3. Why is it that the US is unconcerned about the possibility of #2 above, when mere suspicion of a WMD was enough to bomb Saddam's Iraq?
My take: (Sorry some parts may contain too much details - ignore if not interested.

Yeah, it is messed up when Pak generals show up at terrorist funerals. Totally fair to be alarmed. But nukes? Whole different game.

1. Why not give nukes to Iran?
Short answer: Because that’d be suicide. Even China & Saudi would ditch them. Nukes can be traced—no one’s walking away from that.

(Even Pakistan's most reckless generals aren’t blind to consequences. Handing over a nuke to Iran would risk an Israeli/US strike on Pakistani soil -- make Pakistan a nuclear pariah overnight.
Once you cross that line, you lose all plausible deniability. It’s not like handing over a flash drive. Nuclear forensics can trace origin material. You can’t sneak a warhead across borders and not get caught.)

2. Why not smuggle nukes into the US?
It’s not carry-on luggage. Fissile material is hard to move, assemble, and hide from sensors, satellites, and every Western intel agency.

(This assumes two huge things:
-That rogue generals can access nuclear material unsupervised (very unlikely),
- And that smuggling it into the U.S., undetected, assembling it without expert teams, and detonating it hasn't already been game-planned out by every intel agency on Earth.

The U.S. spends billions on nuclear detection,... Plus, building a bomb isn’t like putting together IKEA furniture. You need high-grade material, very precise engineering, arming and triggering mechanisms, and trained physicists—and the whole thing has to remain invisible to satellite surveillance and SIGINT.

If rogue generals did try something like this, it would be picked up fast, and Pakistan would be turned into a crater. They know this.


3. Why is the US “calm”?
They’re not. They’ve had eyes on Pakistan’s nukes for years. Iraq was about politics. Pakistan is about real containment.

Yeah, the optics are nuts. But handing off nukes = guaranteed annihilation. Even they know that..
Last edited by Amber G. on 06 Jul 2025 03:18, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by gakakkad »

AmberG . The sipri report evidently gives details about destruction of nooks that happened in op sindoor . Can you look for it if you have access ? It appears that Gemini and groq confirm that something is mentioned.
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by vera_k »

Amber G. wrote: 06 Jul 2025 03:12 2. Why not smuggle nukes into the US?
It’s not carry-on luggage. Fissile material is hard to move, assemble, and hide from sensors, satellites, and every Western intel agency.

(This assumes two huge things:
-That rogue generals can access nuclear material unsupervised (very unlikely),
- And that smuggling it into the U.S., undetected, assembling it without expert teams, and detonating it hasn't already been game-planned out by every intel agency on Earth.

The U.S. spends billions on nuclear detection,... Plus, building a bomb isn’t like putting together IKEA furniture. You need high-grade material, very precise engineering, arming and triggering mechanisms, and trained physicists—and the whole thing has to remain invisible to satellite surveillance and SIGINT.

If rogue generals did try something like this, it would be picked up fast, and Pakistan would be turned into a crater. They know this.
Dated info here. But we know that for a long time, the US has been incapable of detecting HEU being smuggled via the ports.

Detecting nuclear smuggling

Hence why US behavior with Pakistani nukes post 9/11 is akin to the case of the dog that did not bark.
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Amber G. »

gakakkad wrote: 06 Jul 2025 03:15 AmberG . The sipri report evidently gives details about destruction of nooks that happened in op sindoor . Can you look for it if you have access ? It appears that Gemini and groq confirm that something is mentioned.
@gakakkladji -SIPRI’s 2025 Yearbook highlights Operation Sindoor as a moment where strikes occurred on nuclear-related military infrastructure in Pakistan—specifically near facilities tied to the Nuclear Strategic Division—raising fears that even conventional strikes, coupled with disinformation, could spiral into nuclear crisis

But.. SIPRI does not claim there was any actual destruction or dismantling of nukes. Their concern is about the risk of escalation if those sites were hit or rumored to be hit—not about nukes being blown up or disarmed during the operation.

As far as I can see -- There’s no mention in SIPRI’ summaries of weapons being destroyed in Op Sindoor. (What’s flagged is the danger of hitting nuclear-adjacent infrastructure and how rumors or fake news could have escalated things dangerously )

No formal evidence exists—publicly or in leaked updates—that nukes were dismantled, disassembled, or destroyed. (SIPRI isn’t the kind of body that’d drop that without ambulance-chasing headlines.)

On to Gemini and Groq...

If you're seeing claims via Gemini or Groq AI tools stating the nukes themselves were destroyed—that’s likely misinterpretation or overreach. They’ve probably run NLP on the SIPRI text and extracted the wrong context...IMO.

--
Yes, SIPRI confirms India struck sites related to nuclear infrastructure during Op Sindoor.

No, SIPRI does not say any nukes were destroyed or dismantled
.

So any claim that SIPRI reported nukes being blown up? That’s a misunderstanding or hype, not grounded in what the report actually states...( I would believe Indian scientists sources or Army)
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Vayutuvan »

Cyrano wrote: 05 Jul 2025 12:24 Trump has for the nth time said that he brokered the peace deal between India and Pakistan. This is not just credit jeevi orange man blabbering. I think this is about maintaining a degree of pressure on India to not go for any military action on a gravely injured Pak for a while to come, like a year or two.
I am not sure India will hold back if there is another terror attack in India, doesn't matter who the terrorists target - military, para, families at a base, or civilians. Soope Shittistanis need to behave. Would they?
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Vayutuvan »

Amber G. wrote: 05 Jul 2025 05:57 Turkish Media Claim: India offers long-range missile to Greece
— Turkish outlets allege the missile is intended to “TARGET Ankara,” calling it a response to Turkey’s alliance with Pakistan.
Why are they "alleging"? Did Turkiye think that there won't be cost to pay for allying with Shittis? Turkiye media seems to be as stoopid as DDM.
Last edited by Vayutuvan on 06 Jul 2025 04:59, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by NRao »

Amber G. wrote: 06 Jul 2025 02:31
bala wrote: 05 Jul 2025 22:38 Ex-CIA John Kiriakou makes this amazing claim that Pak nukes are under the command and control of US General in this Aadi Achint YT, listen to his speech...

.....
Okay… that’s a massive claim.

.....
His claim is that a Paki Jernail told him that a US General has control over Paki nukes.

Well, some decades ago the US gave PakLand $300 million USD to secure the Paki nukes using US techs.

So, who had/has the keys to the nuke codes is anyones guess.

Fast forward to Operation Sindoor.

C4I op rooms got incinerated (they had to use mati to cover the sites because they could not retrieve a single body!!)(No 72)(BTW, the heat signature of these op rooms are exactly the same as those in the NATO areas)

At Kirana hills something got cooked. A snifer plane made rounds, boron came from Egypt/China, locals were evacuated, and Bharatiya DGMO had no idea what was in Kirana Hills (which he claimed was not even a target).

Today, as far as we can tell, PakiLand has no dependable AD. Seems their naval assets are providing "cover"!!!

So, IMO, I think PakLand is defagned - US has no role to play. BUT, PakiLand has a capability to play mischief with brief cases. I suspect both PakiLand and Eran are being squeezed. However, the brief case threat remains. One with 50% enriched threat.
Amber G.
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Amber G. »

vera_k wrote: 06 Jul 2025 03:54
Amber G. wrote: 06 Jul 2025 03:12 2. Why not smuggle nukes into the US?
It’s not carry-on luggage. Fissile material is hard to move, assemble, and hide from sensors, satellites, and every Western intel agency.
<snip>

The U.S. spends billions on nuclear detection,...

If rogue generals did try something like this, it would be picked up fast, and Pakistan would be turned into a crater. They know this.
Dated info here. But we know that for a long time, the US has been incapable of detecting HEU being smuggled via the ports.

Detecting nuclear smuggling

Hence why US behavior with Pakistani nukes post 9/11 is akin to the case of the dog that did not bark.
Great to bring that up—yes, detecting HEU (highly enriched uranium) is notoriously hard. Scientific American is right—this stuff gives off such low gamma radiation that you could miss it with the same kind of detector that would easily spot a banana. (True story: bananas set off detectors all the time because of potassium-40. But HEU? Shield it with a bit of plastic or lead, and it can go practically invisible.)


If you have seen my posts
in other dhaga (eg nuclear) I discussed this point many times over decades.

BUT—and this is key—just because you can shield it doesn’t mean it’s easy to sneak in.

The U.S. (and India) doesn’t rely just on gamma detectors at border crossings. There’s a layered defense system: -- Intel gathering ..Satellite tracking.. Signal interception..Monitoring of known proliferators .. Behavioral profiling at ports and borders..some of it classified and even non-classified is not going to appear in this open forum.

Basically, it’s not about catching a glowing suitcase—it's about disrupting the whole network behind it.
--

And let’s not forget: HEU isn’t a weapon by itself. You still need precision engineering, shaped charges, neutron initiators, and a lot of specialized talent—and you have to keep all of that invisible inside the U.S.? That’s Hollywood-level stuff, not something six rogue generals just casually pull off.

So yeah—detection is tricky, but deterrence is real. The idea that nukes are undetectable and the U.S.(or India) is clueless? That’s oversimplifying it in a big way.
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by bala »

So we know that the 1998 Pak nuke test were confirmed using seismic detectors/signatures. No one has explained how Pak got to this level to make their own nuke bomb. Who exactly was behind this tamasha that the Pukes created - A.Q. Khan? which genius was behind, there are no papers, no phd caliber person who understands such complex stuff in Pak. Just getting HEU is not the end all. There is much more to it. So the Chinese gave all of the rest of the stuff, machined HEU parts precisely, etc. The Chinese will not disclose all the physics/engineering/computer simulated math to Pak, they simply took over the business back home and presented the final product. Then tis a Chinese bomb plain and simple that Pak exploded, albeit with Pak Uranium. So it begs the question, how come Pak gave US control over their shit. There are more questions than answers. The Pak nuke conundrum will not be solved satisfactorily by anyone. Best is to cripple them forever.
Last edited by bala on 06 Jul 2025 05:37, edited 1 time in total.
Amber G.
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Amber G. »

Nraoji - some history, some post-Sindoor smoke trails, some good old nuclear cloak-and-dagger :) ,,FWIW some comments:

- "US general controls Pak nukes"—because a Paki general said so?
A Pakistani general saying “the Americans are in charge” could mean anything from "we got some tech support" to "I want to sound important in front of an ex-CIA guy." Doesn’t make it fact. Unless we have actual documentation or independent intel confirming U.S. command-and-control integration (which would be massive news), this is just hearsay. Fun, maybe. Real? Nope.

- Yes, the U.S. gave Pakistan $$ to "secure" nukes
True—Bush era, ~$300M to help Pakistan safeguard its arsenal post-9/11. But "help secure" ≠ "we control the launch codes." It was more like improving locks on the vault, not owning the bank.

- Operation Sindoor: incinerated C4I bunkers?
SIPRI confirms nuclear-adjacent infrastructure was hit, and some underground facilities got smoked— literally. But “mati to cover heat signature” stuff? That’s anecdotal unless there’s satellite or credible OSINT to back it.

Also, NATO heat signature resemblance? That’s... vague. Heat signatures reflect structure type, insulation, power usage—not ownership.

- Kirana Hills: “something got cooked”
Kirana’s long been tied to Pakistan’s early nuke R&D, so it’s no surprise India (and everyone else) keeps an eye on it. If a sniffer plane detected something, great—then we’d want readings. Boron shipments, local evacuations? Maybe. But again, we need more than spooky phrasing to confirm something nuclear happened.

(just because DGMO didn’t mark it as a target doesn’t mean there was a “deep state” op. Could also just mean the target list didn’t include it... yet.

- Pakistan defanged?
Degraded? Sure. But fully defanged? That’s a stretch. Even if Op Sindoor damaged C4I nodes or comms relays, Pakistan's nukes aren’t all in one basket. There's redundancy built into every nuclear posture. Plus, even degraded AD doesn’t mean their entire deterrent is gone.

The "briefcase" claim? Again—50% enriched uranium is not weapons-grade (that’s ~90%). You can’t detonate it like a warhead. You could try for a dirty bomb, but even that has limits in effectiveness.


FWIW / IMO .. let’s not mistake dots for data.
Yes, Paki nuke security has always worried folks.
Yes, Sindoor hit something sensitive.
No, that doesn’t prove nukes were wiped out or that generals are walking around with 50% enriched “briefcases.” :) ...

For India good to be alert...
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by vera_k »

Amber G. wrote: 06 Jul 2025 05:34 - Yes, the U.S. gave Pakistan $$ to "secure" nukes
True—Bush era, ~$300M to help Pakistan safeguard its arsenal post-9/11. But "help secure" ≠ "we control the launch codes." It was more like improving locks on the vault, not owning the bank.
Since Trump keeps claiming credit for the ceasefire, here's what I think may have happened. Does this compute?

1. Bush locked Pak nukes behind US codes.
2. At the outset, WH is unconcerned about escalation, because Pak does not have the codes.
3. Pak called WH asking for the codes to move to next stage of their process.
4. WH called New Delhi.

Cease fire!!
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Amber G. »

Also/same being discussed here...:)
Who has the hand on Pakistan's nuclear button
bala
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by bala »

Noida-based drone firm @Raphe_mPhibr raises $145 million 50 days after its drones flew into Pakistan & fired missiles at targets during Op Sindoor. Founder-CEO Vivek Misra is alumni of Georgia Tech who returned back to India.
Shiv Aroor interviews:
https://x.com/ShivAroor/status/1938265629255209054
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Hriday »

Amber G. wrote: 06 Jul 2025 09:04 Also/same being discussed here...:)
Who has the hand on Pakistan's nuclear button
Amber ji, you are saying Pakistan possess several nuclear weapons. But many of the past events suggest otherwise. Indian strike on Pakistani nuclear weapons site and Modi's assertion that Pakistani nuclear blackmail would not work. Why there is no warning from Pakistan on hitting it's nuclear sites?

Overall it looks like Pakistan at least don't have control over nuclear weapons as suggested in BRF. IIRC there is BRF article involving Ramana suggesting the same. Also India is still valuable as a market for Western countries and for conversion to Christianity through fraud and money offers which is still ongoing in large scale. So, from a strategic point of view from Western countries too, it doesn't make sense to have a nuclear armed terrorist nation against India.
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Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Cyrano »

The reliability of US ' statements on WMD is proven since gulf war days.

Pak will not share nook stuff with Iran for a simple reason - Sunni vs Shia bonhomie.

Trumpwa claims non stop that he helped avert a nook disaster during Sindoor. US has no control over India's nooks so this claim has to be based on Pak nooks, either physical access or mating warheads with missiles or launch codes. Actually I guess it's a bit of all three.

After Balakot strikes a US F16 technician based in Pak received a commendation for hiding what he could. So US personnel in sensitive roles in Pak is nothing new.

US has been putting it's trained mil personnel disguised as non combattant experts in Ukraine and many got killed with no public recognition of their sacrifice. It's not beyond them to do similar in Pak.

The huge underground CC destroyed by Brahmos in Nur Khan probably had US personnel as well. Prompting the US to shove it's boots into Pak's ass and compel them to call our DGMO within the hour.
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