Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

[Prem Kumar]

^^ Well put

The DGMO call & JD Vance 24-hr volte-face is not due to any sudden love for Pakistan, but because US assets got hit, though not intentionally

This also explains why the White House went from "We support any response from India to avenge Pahalgam" to "We urge restraint" and "We brokered peace". The US wargaming failed spectacularly - they didn't anticipate either Pakis lobbing a missile towards Delhi or India's savage response against the airbases, C&C centres, drone bases, strategic headquarters etc

Massive reset in everyone's expectation of "What India will do"

This is good. Such brutal lessons are necessary to establish deterrence and make people treat us with respect & not tread on our toes

[Agasthi]

Agasthi, Here is an X video on the Mirage and JF-17. It was near Bhimber in Pakistan

https://x.com/defencealerts/status/1939 ... C6leA&s=19
[/quote]

Thanks Ramana ji!

[drnayar]

The reliability of US ' statements on WMD is proven since gulf war days.

US has been putting it's trained mil personnel disguised as non combattant experts in Ukraine and many got killed with no public recognition of their sacrifice. It's not beyond them to do similar in Pak.

The huge underground CC destroyed by Brahmos in Nur Khan probably had US personnel as well. Prompting the US to shove it's boots into Pak's ass and compel them to call our DGMO within the hour.

Truth can be stranger than fiction . America controls paki nukes , period.

[Tanaji]

> The DGMO call & JD Vance 24-hr volte-face is not due to any sudden love for Pakistan, but because US assets got hit, though not intentionally

I don’t get this. What US assets would be in a base that may be housing Pakistani nukes and why?

[Rakesh]

The only plausible explanation is US assets being stationed for the attack against Iran. But even with this, Unkil is a global expeditionary force and does not really need foreign bases to strike at Iran.

Pak nukes are an enigma. Some believe they have nukes, while others believe they do not. The only thing that Paks have successfully managed to do is nuclear blackmail. But that has now gone out the window with Uri in 2016, Balakot in 2019 and Operation Sindoor in 2025.

There are US personnel at Jacobabad AFB, which is home to the PAF’s Block 50/52 F-16C/Ds. By the way, the PAF Air Chief recently went to the US. He “reportedly” asked for two very interesting acquisitions;

1) AIM-120Ds for the Block 50/52 F-16s
2) Upgrade to Block 70/72 standard for these F-16s

I use the term interesting because if this is true, then PL-15E likely proved subpar, as with the recent examples that crashed landed largely intact in India. Thus the reliance on something proven. Upgrade to Block 70/72 is only logical for the PAF and was bound to happen.

Unkil will likely give in to the Block 70/72 upgrade, but doubtful they will hand over AIM-120Ds. Taiwan has been asking for them vis-à-vis China, but has not complied due to the number of pro-China sympathizers in Taiwan. Pak is far more porous and dangerous.

At best, they will get AIM-120C7s or C8s. Their stock of 500 AIM-120C5s are now at least 15 years old. Not sure of the shelf life of these missiles. If someone knows, please post.

P.S. Only WASPs operate the AIM-120D —> US, UK, Canada, Australia and soon (or probably already) Norway. Read this article below…

U.S. Air Force Aims To Increase Exports Of Air-to-Air Missiles
https://aviationweek.com/shownews/farnb ... r-missiles
18 July 2022

[drnayar]

Anything latest that goes to paki land would be sold to the rival, latest American stuff end up in chini labs and chini stuff in khan land. I don't think anyone in their senses would part with their high end tech to pakis.. swedes made be an exception ( erieye/globaleye)

[gakakkad]

Highly doubt porkies are getting the 16s upgraded. I think it's just a threat for trade deal and possibly trying to shove 35s down our throats . The later won't happen after the Kerala debacle .

[Rakesh]

F-35 will not come for India, no matter how much Unkil tries to shove it down our throat.

The MRFA is now more or less confirmed, with the number of recent agreements that India has signed with France. It is an open secret that it will be the Rafale ---> viewtopic.php?p=2653539#p2653539 . The only thing that is ambiguous with the Rafale is the number of aircraft being acquired under the MRFA. But that will become clear, once the deal is signed. My mango abdul guess is at minimum a 100 aircraft order for the IAF.

Block 70/72 F-16s for Pakistan are more than likely to occur ---> viewtopic.php?p=2652446#p2652446

Also see below. The AIM-7 mentioned in the article is DDM. The PAF wants the AIM-120D, but will make do with AIM-120C7 or C8s.

Pak air chief in US after Chinese equipment comes a cropper in Op Sindoor
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/p ... 2025-07-03
03 July 2025

===================================

The argument that Unkil will make to India is that with India upgrading its air force, it is only logical to give Pakistan a parity...not in numbers, but in capability. Parity = Deterrence is the argument that will be made to India by the US State Department. Trade deals, F-35, US birds in the MRFA contest are all sideshows. The goal is to constantly keep India on her toes. The Block 70/72 represents no threat to the USAF. There are enough counters in Unkil's kitty to take out those birds if ever required.

[Rakesh]

French intelligence: China used embassies to undermine sales of France’s flagship Rafale fighter jet
https://thehill.com/homenews/ap/ap-inte ... ghter-jet/
06 July 2025

[Cyrano]

What deterrence against "this is not an era of war" country India?!

And how should India view a country that arms what Dr SJ has publicly called Terroristan?

State sponsor of a state sponsor of terrorism.

Such a move will set the US on a collision course with india.

[A_Gupta]

What does the US admit to regarding Paki nukes? An AI-assisted summary is as follows:

Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) Assistance and MPC&A:

Since the early 2000s, the U.S. Department of Energy and related agencies have provided Pakistan with:

* Physical‐security upgrades at warhead storage sites
* Material Protection, Control, and Accounting (MPC&A) training for Pakistani personnel
* Technical advice on intrusion detection, perimeter defenses, and safe transport protocols[/list][/list]

This assistance aims to reduce the risk of theft or inadvertent diversion of fissile material, not to assume control of weapons.

Intelligence Sharing and Export Controls

The U.S. and Pakistan maintain channels for:

* Intelligence exchanges on proliferation networks that might target Pakistani facilities
* Joint workshops on export‐control enforcement and interdiction of illicit nuclear‐related trade

Such cooperation bolsters Pakistan’s own safeguards and helps interdict components that could compromise weapons security.

---
The simplest explanation is that in the US judgment the security of Paki nukes was compromised - i.e.., further Indian bombardment would maybe open the doors to theft (or plausible story of theft) of Paki weapons,. Whatever verification system the Americans set up to ensure that Paki weapons were secure was broken. So, get a ceasefire.

[Rakesh]

What deterrence against "this is not an era of war" country India?!

And how should India view a country that arms what Dr SJ has publicly called Terroristan?

State sponsor of a state sponsor of terrorism.

Such a move will set the US on a collision course with india.

The advantages of Pakistan whoring herself to anyone available nation, is that it gives them (albeit short term) benefits. Since when did Unkil ever care (or ever will) about what India thinks? A whore requires payment, upon completion of services.

https://x.com/SouthAsiaIndex/status/1941864474723401732 ----> Pakistan and US are in final stages of a trade agreement which will be announced by President Trump. US-Pak trade deal will cover zero tarrifs, crypto, rare earth minerals deal and Pakistani textile exports to US.

[Cyrano]

No donkey meat in the deal? Oh wait they are all sold to China already

[V_Raman]

The simplest explanation is that in the US judgment the security of Paki nukes was compromised - i.e.., further Indian bombardment would maybe open the doors to theft (or plausible story of theft) of Paki weapons,. Whatever verification system the Americans set up to ensure that Paki weapons were secure was broken. So, get a ceasefire.

This is the ultimate expression of negotiating with a gun to your own head - Pakis have perfected it!

[bala]

Recently Marco Rubio, Sec of State of US, said he supports rights for Tibet ( see this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZgvYVcCLr8 ). The Dalai Lama recently said a trust will determine the next lama for Tibet (see https://youtu.be/UwLoiBv3RNc ) . India should use Marco Rubio opening on Tibet using QUAD and press for Tibet freedom. This is the key to reducing China's interference with Pak land. A free Tibet means that the issues with China that India is subjected will disappear for the most part. No more sources to rivers that originate in Tibet, no more Arunachal Pradesh, no more chicken neck, no more Aksai Chin with access to Xingjiang, shaksgam valley is gone to India, no more CPEC, etc. The US can have Pak by their C&C balls as far as I am concerned. Maj Gen Rajiv Narayanan has stated that the US Army command has a long term map redraw which indicates Baluchistan to be carved out from Pak&Iran, Afghanistan taking some northern territory from Pak. The rump land of PakJabi radicals with Sindudesh and Krachi port is all that is left as Pak land.

[Rakesh]

Operation Sindoor is India’s greatest victory since 1971
https://sundayguardianlive.com/opinion/ ... e_vignette
06 July 2025

[Prem Kumar]

The argument that Unkil will make to India is that with India upgrading its air force, it is only logical to give Pakistan a parity...not in numbers, but in capability. Parity = Deterrence is the argument that will be made to India by the US State Department

And this is exactly why our next strike against the PAF must be a decapitating one. No more PAF = no more equal-equal

The US cannot re-build PAF from scratch without explicitly signaling to India & the World that its actively rebuilding a state sponsor of terror. Its qualitatively & quantitatively different from upgrading two squadrons here or supplying a few missiles there

There is a difference between Zero-to-One vs N-to-(N+1)

[bala]

One is wondering what will happen in Sindoor V2.0 for Pak. India will have full reign on the escalation ladder. SEAD/DEAD will be done to the hilt, now that the china maal frequencies are well known in actual battle times. Target salvo will be commenced by the Indian Navy taking out Karachi and neighboring areas. What are the nature of targets? They include Production centers for ammo/weapons, mobile launch sites, key assets like power, gas, heck even nuclear stations, nothing will be spared, including headquarters for PA. There could be loss of territory for Pak land too, IA is waiting to flex its muscle full tilt. The 3 way bombardment will ruin Pak completely and they will take ages to recoup if any.

Aadi Achint is spilling all kinds of interesting nuggets about the extent of damage in Sindoor V1.0 and also some hints on V2.0 targets. China will be sending more of their sophisticated maal for Pak and try their luck in V2.0. For China, they are in a catch 22 situation. CPEC has been ruined (est. 65B sunk costs in Pak corridor). Keeping Pak away from US is making them sweat a lot. If Pak is antogonized by China, the Pak jihadis will start to visit Xinjiang province.

watch YT of Jaipur Diaglogues with Aadi Achint holding fort:
Nur Khan Base Secrets | Decoding Dy COAS Press Conference | Geopolitics - Aadi Achint
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YrSo4lX7vPs

[LakshmanPST]

One thing is true...
While we public do not know what US is doing inside Pakistan, Indian Armed Forces and intelligence definitely KNEW about US activities in Pakistani Air Base(s)...
And India intentionally hit them...
No one is going to believe that India randomly hit the bases without knowledge of US activities...
It is the only reason why US began openly siding with Pak... They know that we know about their activities... The fact that we still hit them is being seen as 'crossing of the line'...