India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

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Manish_P
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by Manish_P »

Vayutuvan wrote: 19 Jul 2025 22:43 As India rises, the hate will come out more and more into the open....
It will and indeed we can see it happening
...It is our responsibility to educate them as well do what Jewish folks do....
Very tough ask. The Jews have been trying for decades and for all their efforts are now increasingly facing the blow-back from the closer of the two fellow Abrahamics. The Nazism card had anyway worn off a long time ago.

IMVHO pagans like Sanatanis don't really have much chance. In their world-view brown sub-continental asians are just one rung above the africans...
gakakkad
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by gakakkad »

^ they've had such thoughts about Greeks ,Russians ,Jews , east Asians as well. One racial group they never had doubts were whites are arabs
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by Rudradev »

https://www.deccanherald.com/business/a ... ut-3639379

NYT article from 21 hours ago.

Trump has completely folded in his "trade war" against China. By withholding rare earth mineral exports in retaliation against Trump's 145% tariffs and restrictions on AI-chip exports, China made the US tech, automobile & defense titans squeal. They in turn have successfully pressured Trump to (1) resume chip exports to PRC and (2) drop tariffs to 30% and (3) fire China Hawks from his administration, replacing them with pro-trade (and pro-China) technocrats.

Besides representing a humiliating defeat for America First, it signals an ominous policy shift in US-China relations from the Indian perspective.

Trump has abjectly begged the Chinese for a state visit to Beijing to sign off on new trade deals in person with Xi Jinping later this year. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is already lining up top-shelf American CEOs to join his delegation on Air Force One.

I predict that Trump is going to present this as a historic, Nixon Redux rapprochement of the US with China— basically giving PRC whatever they want on a platter while claiming statesmanship points for himself. Part of what the Chinese will demand (and I'm sure Trump will give) is a joint partnership aimed at containing and reversing India's rise.

Taken together with Trump's new fondness for Asim Munir, a new Nixon-Kissinger moment for the US & China will herald the worst phase in US-India relations since 1971.
chetak
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by chetak »

Rudradev wrote: 21 Jul 2025 20:40 https://www.deccanherald.com/business/a ... ut-3639379

NYT article from 21 hours ago.

Trump has completely folded in his "trade war" against China. By withholding rare earth mineral exports in retaliation against Trump's 145% tariffs and restrictions on AI-chip exports, China made the US tech, automobile & defense titans squeal. They in turn have successfully pressured Trump to (1) resume chip exports to PRC and (2) drop tariffs to 30% and (3) fire China Hawks from his administration, replacing them with pro-trade (and pro-China) technocrats.

Besides representing a humiliating defeat for America First, it signals an ominous policy shift in US-China relations from the Indian perspective.

Trump has abjectly begged the Chinese for a state visit to Beijing to sign off on new trade deals in person with Xi Jinping later this year. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is already lining up top-shelf American CEOs to join his delegation on Air Force One.

I predict that Trump is going to present this as a historic, Nixon Redux rapprochement of the US with China— basically giving PRC whatever they want on a platter while claiming statesmanship points for himself. Part of what the Chinese will demand (and I'm sure Trump will give) is a joint partnership aimed at containing and reversing India's rise.

Taken together with Trump's new fondness for Asim Munir, a new Nixon-Kissinger moment for the US & China will herald the worst phase in US-India relations since 1971.


Rudradev ji,

So then, what happens to the QUAD, and the amriki sanctions on russki oil/gas that was going to be a "bunker buster", aimed at India, cheen, and brazil

are both going to land up a gum tree

does this clown need a brain transplant or what ............. :mrgreen: ...............
Rudradev
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by Rudradev »

QUAD was DOA even during the Biden presidency. To the extent it survives, it's a chai-biskoot shop.

Sanctions on Russki oil/gas buyers is in all likelihood a short-term pressure tactic. It ties in to Trump's "50 days" deadline for Putin to end the war, and depending on what happens it might never get implemented. Even if it is implemented, it can be withdrawn unilaterally in China's case (like 115% of Trump's tarrifs and the China Hawks in Trump's government already have been).

For that matter, China itself will happily throw Roos under the bus for a chance to establish a cosy & profitable G2 Setting with the US... that too, a US with a corrupt buffoon in charge (at least Nixon, by contrast, had a base level of cunning to his credit).
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by A_Gupta »

^^^^ once bitten, twice shy -American CEOs will still want to diversify their supply chain, but presumably with new China-US bonhomie this might be located in ASEAN or elsewhere rather than India?

To participate in India’s internal market they will come, but perhaps not for major export from India.
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by saip »

That is why it is called TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out). He is always been a con man (6 bankruptcies and counting).
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by saip »

My understanding is that years ago India accounted for 7% of rare earth production. But then China happened and India found it cheaper to buy it from China.
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by Tanaji »

In the meanwhile, “we will crush your economies”:

https://indianexpress.com/article/world ... hometop_hp

Let’s see.
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by bala »

On India and rare earths:

Rare Earth deposits (80-200 million tons) in Siwana/Jalore area have been found in Rajastan. These deposits exceed those of China and others. The issue for India is about processing them safely without pollution.

https://youtu.be/kLBCquWIsd4

Also some more Oil reserves in Barmer ( at least 0.5 B ) Rajastan
Vayutuvan
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by Vayutuvan »

Tanaji wrote: 22 Jul 2025 00:51 In the meanwhile, “we will crush your economies”:
...
Let’s see.
He is a racist idiot.
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by Amber G. »

Tanaji wrote: 22 Jul 2025 00:51 In the meanwhile, “we will crush your economies”:

https://indianexpress.com/article/world ... hometop_hp

Let’s see.
Not to be outdone here is another Trump Fan, also clueless, but dangerous, this time from India demanding in Rajyasabha -
..., the government should clarify its stance on the statement made by US President Trump, as he has claimed not once but 24 times that he facilitated a ceasefire. This is a humiliating matter for the country,

- Kharge ji..

---
Anyway Lindsey Graham’s sweeping Russia Sanctions Bill (S.1241)—warning nations like India and China that “we will crush your economies” if they continue buying Russian oil—has gained massive bipartisan support .. 84+ co-sponsors in the Senate and strong backing in the House. It’s likely to pass, even with potential for veto-proof margins.

But what will Trump do ...his stance remains unpredictable... A veto is possible, but so is a signature ..

India, meanwhile, has responded with clarity and confidence:

- Dr. S. Jaishankar confirmed that India is engaging directly with Senator Graham

- Petroleum Minister Hardeep Puri signaled flexibility, stating - “India can tap other sources if Russian oil is sanctioned.”
- MEA has firmly rejected unilateral sanctions and cautioned against “double standards” on energy trade.
My Hope India’s principled stance and deepening U.S. ties could help carve out realistic exemptions or acceptable solutions... Cooler heads will prevail ..
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by A_Gupta »

The last action on S1241

04/01/2025 Read twice and referred to the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.
Action By: Senate

Prognosis: 2% chance of getting passed
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/119/s1241

Also see: 6% chance:
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/119/hr2548

The danger is not Congress. It is Trump, if he decides to do anything it will happen fast.
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by Amber G. »

^^^ :) .. even with ' 84+ co-sponsors in the Senate ' still stuck getting referred..
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by m_saini »

Rudradev wrote: 21 Jul 2025 20:40 I predict that Trump is going to present this as a historic, Nixon Redux rapprochement of the US with China— basically giving PRC whatever they want on a platter while claiming statesmanship points for himself. Part of what the Chinese will demand (and I'm sure Trump will give) is a joint partnership aimed at containing and reversing India's rise.

Taken together with Trump's new fondness for Asim Munir, a new Nixon-Kissinger moment for the US & China will herald the worst phase in US-India relations since 1971.
Trump is, well Trump but a new Nixon-Kissinger moment is impossible for US & China. That is as long as China dreams of (and work towards) becoming No 1.

Americans tamed Japanese when their economy was skyrocketing and they made UK give up their colonies. There's no way they let China rise. Trump can pretend to be the all-powerful emperor but the real power lies with the "tech, automobile & defense titans" who evidently have successfully pressured Trump to fold.

Only way America & China make up is if either one of them gives up the crown (or stop chasing it in case of China). And FWIW, i hope it's china that reigns supreme, it'll give us the kick in the butt that we so desperately need.
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by A_Gupta »

Tariff uncertainty continues: US team to visit India in mid-Aug, well after Aug 1 ‘hard deadline’
While India and the US have agreed on a wide range of tariff lines, the negotiations — which currently only involve market access for goods — are stuck over sensitive sectors such as agriculture and automobiles, which are key job creators in India.
https://indianexpress.com/article/busin ... -10140394/
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by SRajesh »

Given the way DJT ius brow beating everyone into accepting his trade deals credit to Piyush Goel and team for holding firm and not getting blown away by the bully so far.
Any give and take here will be discredited by the BIF's and the Dotty Gang
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by Cyrano »

The biggest push from the US is most likely on Agriculture and Dairy exports to india. The very sectors where we are strong and we don't need their GMO produce and meat fed milk.
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by chetak »

Cyrano wrote: 28 Jul 2025 12:59 The biggest push from the US is most likely on Agriculture and Dairy exports to india. The very sectors where we are strong and we don't need their GMO produce and meat fed milk.

Cyrano ji,

These are the very sectors that are extremely vulnerable and also critical to India's survival (given as to how we are totally dependent on the vagaries of the monsoons) and in the maintenance of food and economic security of our subsistence farmers. We are not strong here but extremely vulnerable, which is why the amrikis are so very insistent in penetrating these sectors. They will undermine our production, hobble our exports and introduce very controversial GM products. It will badly impact our PDS system and cause widespread public upheaval, possibly precipitating regime change scenarios. This is not any old, run of the mill commercial deal. It is a full fledged attempt to take over and undermine some of India's critical foundations, and a targeted strike at the top leadership, who will end up as the fall guys

They see trump as the only guy who can and will push through such an agreement, given as how Modi ji is seen as his old friend. But the amrikis seem to have run headlong into a wall.

the main drivers of the agenda are companies like the erstwhile monsanto, now a part of bayer, and others like dow chemical, evogene, and syngenta, that are aggressively pushing for control over India's food production. Behind them are the soreass gangs and blackrock money. These amriki guys, including the cheen and ayeraabs, have already purchased/long term leased ginormous acreage of fertile ukranian land to produce grain, and you can bet your last dollar that it will mostly be GMO grain

India's non GMO grain production and exports have threatened their dominance and predatory price controls.

Globally, India produces around 22% of the world's milk output. Companies like Nestle USA, Land O Lakes, Kraft Heinze, Danone North America, and Dairy Farmers America, among others, are desperate to horn in, as are australians and new zealandanders,

If they do, the Indian diary industry will not be sustainable. It is then possible that large numbers of dairy animals will either abandoned or sold to jihadi slaughter houses. In either case, the destination for most of these animals is the slaughter house

If this happens, the harm that will befall Santana Dharma will be beyond estimation.

This GMO game in India is at least several decades old, (BT cotton and brinjals) and the frustrations of the amrikis are growing. The issue has taken on geopolitical connotations, given the political and security leverage that grain exports can exert in troubled markets and geographies.

some scum at the niti aayog are frantically trying to, sub rosa, push through the amriki proposals, by pumping out "position" papers favoring the amrikis. They should be made acquainted with the french invention of the guillotine, speaking metamorphically, of course.

Bayer (formerly Monsanto), Corteva (formerly DuPont), Syngenta (part of ChemChina), and Limagrain together controlled 50% of the global seed market, with Bayer and Corteva alone claiming roughly 40%.

Do you see the concerned dramatis personae and their antecedents.

So it's time to say: India is entitled to protect its way of life, damn the FTAs, and the screw the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Meanwhile take a gander at this

The Union Commerce minister Piyush Goyal led trade delegation to USA returned back in a huff over American attempts to brow beat India into the formers’ one-sided tariff pact.

“Goyal and delegation negotiated hard and long till he got the cue from PM Modi to break off talks and return home.

Not even a day after the Indian trade delegation returned to India, Trump’s crestfallen team went into a huddle and has decided to send a team of U.S. delegates to India to retrieve the situation and still thrash out a trade and tariffs pact,” a person familiar with the developments said.

Cyrano ji, I have one question for you. Is the EU and also other countries in that geography having any sort of fuel (petrol and diesel) shortages that are affecting the mango people.
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by Cyrano »

Chetak ji,
I'm aware of most of the points you make a I agree 100%. When I said we are strong I meant that we are not import dependent and despite low tech and low yields per acre, we are still able to export agri produce and sometimes rescue poor nations in trouble like afghanistan and most recently Somalia.

As far as I can see EU people are mostly helpless and numbed by the misrule of EU comissars and their own leaders, their opposition parties are similar to our's. Petrol and Diesel prices are creeping up but no shortages as yet. We are in peak summer holidays season which no govt can afford to ruin, so if there is a serious impact it will come in September.

The real killer will be electricity, heating fuel and natural gas prices for heating homes this winter. Of course fuel prices can still increase in the coming months, with people stuck between harebrained policies and global warming guilt.
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by Cyrano »

US - EU trade deal has just been announced. EU exports to US will be taxed at 15% without reciprocity, EU commits to buy 750 Billion $ of oil and gas and 600B$ of ADDITIONAL investment in US. Commits to buy US military equipment etc etc.
That will hurt more than anything Nayara does or doesn't.
chetak
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by chetak »

Cyrano wrote: 28 Jul 2025 20:24 Chetak ji,
I'm aware of most of the points you make a I agree 100%. When I said we are strong I meant that we are not import dependent and despite low tech and low yields per acre, we are still able to export agri produce and sometimes rescue poor nations in trouble like afghanistan and most recently Somalia.

As far as I can see EU people are mostly helpless and numbed by the misrule of EU comissars and their own leaders, their opposition parties are similar to our's. Petrol and Diesel prices are creeping up but no shortages as yet. We are in peak summer holidays season which no govt can afford to ruin, so if there is a serious impact it will come in September.

The real killer will be electricity, heating fuel and natural gas prices for heating homes this winter. Of course fuel prices can still increase in the coming months, with people stuck between harebrained policies and global warming guilt.

Thanks Cyrano ji.

Meanwhile, many international shippers are avoiding the nayara refinery, both for delivery of crude and for the uplift of petro products.
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by A_Gupta »

Cyrano wrote: 28 Jul 2025 20:53 US - EU trade deal has just been announced. EU exports to US will be taxed at 15% without reciprocity, EU commits to buy 750 Billion $ of oil and gas and 600B$ of ADDITIONAL investment in US. Commits to buy US military equipment etc etc.
That will hurt more than anything Nayara does or doesn't.
That is what Trump says, which I would not trust in the least. Trump has misled on Op Sindoor, and the terms of the trade deals with Vietnam, Japan and even the mini-deal with China. The man cannot open his mouth without emitting a lie (apologies to BRF Trump cult members).

I do not see mention of any dollar/euro commitments here, from the European side.
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/pressco ... nt_25_1915

This is what they do say:
We have stabilised on a single 15% tariff rate for the vast majority of EU exports. This rate applies across most sectors, including cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. This 15% is a clear ceiling. No stacking. All-inclusive. So it gives much-needed clarity for our citizens and businesses. This is absolutely crucial.

Today we have also agreed on zero-for-zero tariffs on a number of strategic products. This includes all aircraft and component parts, certain chemicals, certain generics, semiconductor equipment, certain agricultural products, natural resources and critical raw materials. And we will keep working to add more products to this list.

On steel and aluminium, the EU and the US face the common external challenge of global overcapacity. We will work together to ensure fair global competition. And to reduce barriers between us, tariffs will be cut. And a quota system will be put in place.

We will also increase our energy cooperation. Purchases of US energy products will diversify our sources of supply and contribute to Europe's energy security. We will replace Russian gas and oil with significant purchases of US LNG, oil and nuclear fuels.

US AI chips will help power our AI gigafactories and help the US to maintain their technological edge.
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by Tanaji »

Trump has cut the so called deadline to Putin from “50 to 12-13” whatever that means.

I expect secondary tariffs on India to the tune of 100% over Russian oil. Add to the fact that India hasn’t rolled over in the normal FTA negotiations is more grist to Trumps mill


Lets see how we deal with this
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by Rudradev »

A_Gupta wrote: 28 Jul 2025 21:42
That is what Trump says, which I would not trust in the least. Trump has misled on Op Sindoor, and the terms of the trade deals with Vietnam, Japan and even the mini-deal with China. The man cannot open his mouth without emitting a lie.
Yes, and for India this can be a really good thing. When one lies all the time & produces new lies on the hour— especially with the drooling, senile abandon of Trump— then the lies become impossible (and exhausting) to keep track of even at an individual level.

At the level of an organization like the US government, the relentless undermining of every negotiating position officials take by a fresh spew of Presidential contradictions, the constant demand to twist and pirouette and somehow maintain a crumbling semblance of consistency— must be absolutely crippling.

In some ways there has never been a better time to get a deal with the US, or a better team in New Delhi to secure one favourable to India.
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by A_Gupta »

July 31 is the next judicial hearing about whether Trump is using the emergency tariff powers properly or whether only Congress can do such broad tariff changes as Trump has done. (The first court has already said Trump’s emergency tariff powers apply to only situations where one or two countries are involved.)

If there is a hint on which way the court leans, it may affect negotiations.
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by Manish_P »

Yes, we should buy US military equipment. There will be no problems at all...

Nayara moves Delhi HC after Microsoft abruptly stops services: How US companies have been used in NATO’s war against Russia
One of India’s key oil refining and marketing companies with Russian ownership, Nayara Energy, has filed a petition in the Delhi High Court against tech giant Microsoft. The company, in its petition, has accused Microsoft of abruptly suspending access to essential digital services, including email, without any prior notice. The company has said that Microsoft’s actions have jeopardised operations across its India network.


Sanctions fallout and operational impact

The development came in the wake of recent European Union sanctions on Nayara for having links with Russian oil giant Rosneft. Although Microsoft is based in the United States, Nayara argues that the company is under no obligation to enforce EU sanctions under US or Indian law.

Following the sanctions, at least two ships reportedly skipped loading refined products from Nayara’s Vadinar refinery, while one tanker carrying Russian Urals crude was diverted. Amid the turmoil, Nayara’s CEO resigned and has since been replaced by Sergey Denisov.

Nayara seeks urgent court relief

The petition seeks an interim injunction and immediate restoration of services. According to Nayara, Microsoft’s move was executed “unilaterally, without prior notice, consultation or recourse”, and under the “guise of compliance”. Notably, the company has emphasised that the suspended services were acquired under “fully paid-up licences”, which made the disruption even more unjustified.

The company stated that Microsoft’s actions have resulted in restriction of access to Nayara’s own data, proprietary tools and products. The disruption has had a direct operational impact since last Tuesday.

Strategic importance in India’s fuel economy

In its petition, the company has underlined its crucial contribution to India’s energy infrastructure. The company accounts for around 8% of India’s refining capacity and runs 7% of the country’s petrol pumps. It is also building around 8% of India’s polypropylene capacity.

Despite the current issues faced by the company, Nayara has reaffirmed its commitment to uninterrupted fuel supply across the country. It has stated that the company will continue to operate with full compliance under Indian regulations.

Earlier this month, the European Union imposed sanctions on Nayara’s Vadinar refinery as part of the 18th package of sanctions against Russia, which included asset freezes, shipping and insurance curbs, and a reduction in the price cap on Russian crude. The Government of India has categorically refused to recognise unilateral sanctions.
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by drnayar »

Manish_P wrote: 29 Jul 2025 12:45 Yes, we should buy US military equipment. There will be no problems at all...

Nayara moves Delhi HC after Microsoft abruptly stops services: How US companies have been used in NATO’s war against Russia

Nayara seeks urgent court relief

The petition seeks an interim injunction and immediate restoration of services. According to Nayara, Microsoft’s move was executed “unilaterally, without prior notice, consultation or recourse”, and under the “guise of compliance”. Notably, the company has emphasised that the suspended services were acquired under “fully paid-up licences”, which made the disruption even more unjustified.

The company stated that Microsoft’s actions have resulted in restriction of access to Nayara’s own data, proprietary tools and products. The disruption has had a direct operational impact since last Tuesday.

Strategic importance in India’s fuel economy


Earlier this month, the European Union imposed sanctions on Nayara’s Vadinar refinery as part of the 18th package of sanctions against Russia, which included asset freezes, shipping and insurance curbs, and a reduction in the price cap on Russian crude. The Government of India has categorically refused to recognise unilateral sanctions.
Microsoft is working exactly like a pirate hacking group.. locking up company resources..holding it to ransom
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by Manish_P »

drnayar wrote: 29 Jul 2025 13:52
Microsoft is working exactly like a pirate hacking group.. locking up company resources..holding it to ransom
A state-backed pirate hacking group
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by Kanoji »

I think the government should give a serious push for the use of BOSS and Indian cloud service providers.
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by Deans »

I have been following Trump's trade wars for some time.
While I earlier felt a transactional Trump administration will be better for India than a virtue signalling Biden/Harris one, I am now increasingly
convinced he is one step short of unhinged. I don't think his administration knows what he will do tomorrow.
What I have been able to discern is:

No country except the UK has actually signed a trade deal with the US. The Uk signed a foundational agreement, a lot of details have to be
worked out, though there is a min 10% tariff.
The EU deal has to be ratified by all countries - looks doubtful.
There is no text of any deal with Japan. China and Vietnam. Japan and Vietnam have denied that they signed the deal Trump described.

My sense is if additional tariffs are imposed on those who buy Russian oil, China will continue buying (probably Brazil too) and India should
do the same. There is no alternative. I think we should publicly say that if we are given an alternative source at the same price as Russian oil,
we will buy from there. Iran can be that source, but the US wont un-sanction Iran.

Agreeing to US demands for opening up dairy and GM crops is political suicide. Won't happen. If there is no deal as a result of that the PM will have the moral high ground.
My sense is Trump will soon be in trouble as a result of Epstein files + lying on trade deals + adverse court verdict on his power to impose tariffs.
He will sense that trying to impose heavy tariffs will be an economic nuke (to the US economy too) that will gain him nothing.
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by SRajesh »

Chetakji
One thing I can say:
1. My Diesel rates are going up 130-143p per litre depending on where you fill.
2.Water rates going up
3.Gas and electricity rates are up
Come winter all things warm and fuzzy will be extortionist so to speak.
All Putin has to do is carryon until October and the real fun will start with Amrikis themselves calling for Trump's ouster.
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by A_Gupta »

Trump says India will likely face a 20% to 25% tariff
https://www.axios.com/2025/07/29/trump- ... fs-economy
ShauryaT
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by ShauryaT »

Think there is a unilateral decision made on the US end - no agreement. Beware links to Truth Social!!!

India 25% - Trump

Added: But looks like they are hopeful of a deal, so these are power plays.
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by uddu »

Nayara Microsoft Issue, Sanctions on India in 12 days, US 25% Tariff on India I Pathikrit Payne

DEF Talks is a space for clear cut discussions on important subjects of current affairs of the world with a prime focus to the Indian Subcontinent. I cover issues related to conflicts, Geopolitics, Military Strategy and Foreign Affairs.
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by uddu »

https://x.com/harshmadhusudan/status/19 ... 9870814250
@harshmadhusudan
PM Modi has faced many strategic challenges - and this is perhaps going to be his biggest with Trump putting 25%+ tariffs on India.

This time US, China, Pakistan are all being hostile to India while there is no foil in Soviet Union, or any friendly government in even Bangladesh. We are much richer in both relative and absolute terms as well as much more internally coherent, but nuclear weapons have also meant a certain strategic equalisation.

For a lot of orthodoxies are outdated. His government needs some fresh advice. Here are some points:

1. Put US Big Tech on the negotiating table immediately. No negotiations are possible with someone who takes a maximalist position if we are not ready to escalate. Trump is a bully - and appeasing the bully does not work. Like it won't with Xi.

2. Immediately increase defense budget to build on our recent indigenisation early successes. Without a strong defense base, we will have to concede elsewhere. Buy 80% quality instead of 95% quality, but buy more and buy cheap and buy local. For speed, get private sector more involved.

3. Our fiscal policy is tight and there is clear slack in the economy. This "virtue" is now dangerous for national interest. Ignore global CRAs, and focus on investing even more on what matters - defense, innovation, infra, industrial policy, human capital.

4. Our monetary policy is too tight. We have copied inflation targeting without absorbing the dot plot-real rates framework paraphernalia. Again, it is a weird virtue that thinks "if it is painful, it must be good."

5. We must leverage our ITeS/GCC sectors as strengths, not vulnerabilities. There is no other provider of this kind of talent at scale, depth, cost effectiveness. Nothing to worry about here and to the extent there is wrt AI, they will anyway pull the plug.

India is now effectively in a G2 world. This is a test of our national character and leadership. Do not blink.
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by uddu »

US Most Valuable Imports & Exports with Russia
https://www.worldstopexports.com/us-mos ... th-russia/

1 Platinum (unwrought) $877,763,000 -24.3%
2 Nitrogenous fertilizers $761,321,000 -27.1%
3 Radioactive chemical elements $652,498,000 -46.1%
4 Potassic fertilizers $477,869,000 +23.1%
5 Laminated wood (including plywood, veneer panels) $84,853,000 -17.5%
6 Turbo-jets $76,555,000 -17.3%
7 Phosphatic fertilizers $55,134,000 -6.6%
8 Soya-bean oil-cake, other solid residues $39,174,000 -46.7%
9 Aircraft or spacecraft parts $34,867,000 +6.6%
10 Titanium $32,627,000 -47.8%

Will there be tariff on the U.S for buying these things?
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by chetak »

chetak wrote: 28 Jul 2025 21:05
Cyrano wrote: 28 Jul 2025 20:24 Chetak ji,
I'm aware of most of the points you make a I agree 100%. When I said we are strong I meant that we are not import dependent and despite low tech and low yields per acre, we are still able to export agri produce and sometimes rescue poor nations in trouble like afghanistan and most recently Somalia.

As far as I can see EU people are mostly helpless and numbed by the misrule of EU comissars and their own leaders, their opposition parties are similar to our's. Petrol and Diesel prices are creeping up but no shortages as yet. We are in peak summer holidays season which no govt can afford to ruin, so if there is a serious impact it will come in September.

The real killer will be electricity, heating fuel and natural gas prices for heating homes this winter. Of course fuel prices can still increase in the coming months, with people stuck between harebrained policies and global warming guilt.

Thanks Cyrano ji.

Meanwhile, many international shippers are avoiding the nayara refinery, both for delivery of crude and for the uplift of petro products.

Cyrano ji,

The secondary sanctions kick in only towards the year end.

Meanwhile, nayara has demanded from the EU, either advance payment for oil to be shipped, or LOC based trade in fuel

They have started to sell fuel to other markets, and at prices higher than what the EU was paying.

Some shipments from nayara have already been delivered to some markets the gulf region. The messaging cannot be more clearer

Any interest in an FTA with the EU is beginning to cool off on the Indian side because the EU is now proving to be transactionally unreliable, as also economically unpredictable, while being true to their historic colonizer roots which means they will insist of profiting under any and all circumstances, no matter the cost to others not from their biradari.

They are geopolitically predatory, betraying their fear driven selfish agendas when they opportunistically and unilaterally shift goal posts to present themselves as a some sort of global power brokers. They are like domesticated political hamsters who would love to live in comfort under an amriki funded and provided nuclear umbrella. They have no will or even stomach to fight the russkis.

These old colonial powers never were, are, and never will be friendly towards a ex colonized state like India, especially when India has clawed her way up the economic and geopolitical ladder to her present position as a major power without being aligned and obliged to any soooper power ecosystem, and has now emerged as a rising power, and one to be reckoned with, specifically after Op Sindoor. These clowns come across as backwoods brigands

India has bilateral trade ties with some EU partners, and a brand new FTA with the britshits that has pissed off the amrikis, and the current administration is vengeful of all opposition to its policies and overtures.
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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Post by ShauryaT »

Rudradev wrote: 21 Jul 2025 20:40 I predict that Trump is going to present this as a historic, Nixon Redux rapprochement of the US with China— basically giving PRC whatever they want on a platter while claiming statesmanship points for himself. Part of what the Chinese will demand (and I'm sure Trump will give) is a joint partnership aimed at containing and reversing India's rise.

Taken together with Trump's new fondness for Asim Munir, a new Nixon-Kissinger moment for the US & China will herald the worst phase in US-India relations since 1971.
RD: My view is Trump is eyeing for such a Nixon moment but with Russia, not China. Primary reasons are:

1. Fits the racial /christian cousinhood narrative
2. Allows US to focus on ONE primary challenger and not be distracted with two+ fronts, with US deficits it can ill afford to do so anyways
3. With NATO defense expansion commitment, acts as insurance for any future mischief by Russia
4. The future "cheese" is firmly in the Asian realm, where the prize for winning is substantial for the US economy and its global leadership
5. China remains the only state powered "communist" challenger as a near peer. Co-opting China will only mean the US has lost the will to lead and the prize for the Asian realm cedes to China. Something the US can ill afford. JMT.
Last edited by ShauryaT on 31 Jul 2025 03:31, edited 1 time in total.
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