India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

[ShauryaT]

"India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits. They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine. Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA. Thank you for your attention to this matter!!! President DJT"

[sanjaykumar]

Sell your shares in Boeing.

[A_Gupta]

Per AI, if Russian oil is eliminated from the world market and other producers increase their production, even in the optimistic scenario the world is short of 3 million barrels a day.

[ricky_v]

[ShauryaT]

Per AI, if Russian oil is eliminated from the world market and other producers increase their production, even in the optimistic scenario the world is short of 3 million barrels a day.

This is not about India, it is about Russia and pressure on it to make a deal on Ukraine. India just happens to be the malleable entity at this time. Price of not having enough leverage and/or not willing to hit back. For all we know the monkey and the bear would be smoking cigars in a week. India has to play this deftly. Not principled, but sly and serve its interests - which are fungible in days, weeks and years. The above MEA statement is a principled one - not sure if it will get India to the goal post.

[Vayutuvan]

...MEA statement is a principled one - not sure if it will get India to the goal post.

It has to be said at least once. That will set the stage for give and take in the negotiations going forward. My guess is that EU/US hypocrisy is out there for all to see. Global south believes India more than EU/US. That has been quite obvious when our MP delegations reached out to the world.

The above memo is an indication that India can give back as good as it gets.

[williams]

Per AI, if Russian oil is eliminated from the world market and other producers increase their production, even in the optimistic scenario the world is short of 3 million barrels a day.

This is not about India, it is about Russia and pressure on it to make a deal on Ukraine. India just happens to be the malleable entity at this time. Price of not having enough leverage and/or not willing to hit back. For all we know the monkey and the bear would be smoking cigars in a week. India has to play this deftly. Not principled, but sly and serve its interests - which are fungible in days, weeks and years. The above MEA statement is a principled one - not sure if it will get India to the goal post.

Let Trump do what he is saying. Who said India does not have leverage? We usually don't reveal our cards in public. This is not real estate negotiations. India will have to stand the ground and see to it that Trumps tactics does not work. We don't need to be abrasive but cannot bend over backward for this buffoon.

[ricky_v]

imo, india is baiting trump, to what avail i do not know, they could have gone ahead with what piyush goyal said in the ls, multiple committees are formed, technical details are being reviewed, we hope to have strategic alignment soon, you know, all that fluff

this puts our word out, sure, but to a doomscroller like trump, it might come off as just a bit smarmy, and thus invite a reaction, judging by his recent belligerence, nothing pleasing

[A_Gupta]

Whether it is about India or about Russia, the world economy will have a major crisis if nobody can buy Russian oil.

In summary, the elimination of Russian oil from the global market would create a severe and immediate supply deficit. This would lead to a dramatic increase in oil prices, intense competition for remaining supplies, and potential energy shortages. The long-term effects would include accelerated inflation, a possible global economic downturn, and a reshuffling of geopolitical alliances as countries seek to secure their energy needs.

1. Trump has not targeted the European Union or China (China has even more trade and energy imports from Russia than India).

2. Russia can shutdown the Caspian pipeline which transits Russia and which carries Kazakhstan oil, 1% of world supply, exacerbating world supply shortages. Plus American companies have a major share in that oil.

3. Trump can shield his voter base from an oil shock only by exerting export and price controls on domestically produced oil. But that would fly in the face of his demand that countries buy more American oil.

I conclude that Russia has a lot of leverage in this matter; they may go down but can take down the world economy, including the US economy, with them. I doubt that TACO Trump will risk this. Therefore all this Trump BS is specifically targeting India. I don’t see how one can draw any other conclusion- but am glad to hear arguments to the contrary.

[Vayutuvan]

Very strange that the very same BRF members who are ignoring posts made by a few, are making ill-thought conjectures and asking for counter arguments. It boggles the mind that they think that their yes cabal would actually come up with counter arguments at the risk of being cancelled.

[chetak]

imo, india is baiting trump, to what avail i do not know, they could have gone ahead with what piyush goyal said in the ls, multiple committees are formed, technical details are being reviewed, we hope to have strategic alignment soon, you know, all that fluff

this puts our word out, sure, but to a doomscroller like trump, it might come off as just a bit smarmy, and thus invite a reaction, judging by his recent belligerence, nothing pleasing

ricky_v ji,

The canucks are screwing trumpwa like there is no tomorrow. They have completely blindsided him in this so called tariff war


India is doing the same thing but is using a different set of tactics


Modi ji is not talking to him and trumpwa simply doesn't have the testimonials to pick up the phone and dial dilli. The realization that he has needlessly pissed off India has hit him hard and the amriki strategy in the Indo pacific is in shreds


the world is slowly ganging up on the amrikis for selfishly messing up their lives, and with christmas and the cold approaching, things may get a lot worse before they got better.


Modi ji (and India) was one genuine bright spot in his limited vision and he's gone and wantonly pissed it all away that


The phrase "the ugly american" comes to mind ............

[ShauryaT]

Therefore all this Trump BS is specifically targeting India. I don’t see how one can draw any other conclusion- but am glad to hear arguments to the contrary.

Russian oil which was not an issue till a few weeks back is now a major issue. Steve Witkoff is planning to be in Russia next week on Russia's invitation. Threat of force has not worked on Russia, Sanctions have not this is one more way to squeeze Russia to give in on the Ukrainian front and settle. Trump will beat up who thinks he can, Brazil, India, South Africa. China and Russia he is more careful. He is on record for not liking BRICS And this is his attempt to break it. Not the reality I prefer, but the reality how I assess it.

Also, you never know, GoI might be willing to play this Trump game?? Pure speculation.

[vera_k]

This latest bit looks to be a fight between Donald bhai and Mukesh bhai. India and USA along for the ride.
Did Mukesh get richer than Donald perhaps by re-exporting Russian oil?

[chetak]

Therefore all this Trump BS is specifically targeting India. I don’t see how one can draw any other conclusion- but am glad to hear arguments to the contrary.

Russian oil which was not an issue till a few weeks back is now a major issue. Steve Witkoff is planning to be in Russia next week on Russia's invitation. Threat of force has not worked on Russia, Sanctions have not this is one more way to squeeze Russia to give in on the Ukrainian front and settle. Trump will beat up who thinks he can, Brazil, India, South Africa. China and Russia he is more careful. He is on record for not liking BRICS And this is his attempt to break it. Not the reality I prefer, but the reality how I assess it.

Also, you never know, GoI might be willing to play this Trump game?? Pure speculation.

No ShauryaT ji, India will not play ball now, because he has deliberately and malevolently caused serious loss of face to big guns in India. It was his geopolitical intention to do so, besides the personal angle because of Modi ji's polite defiance

this guy has stepped on too many Indian toes, openly supported the pakis, and is attempting to rehyphenate Indo pak just to give the pakis a happy ending

The QUAD may be pushed to the cold backburner just to ensure that some stooopide people feel the pain

[A_Gupta]

Apologies if I am turning this into an AI test.

Google Gemini tells me:

Based on recent statements and actions, the current US administration is actively pressuring the following countries over their trade with Russia:

Countries facing pressure over trade with Russia:

India

China

Brazil

Turkey

Vietnam

Thailand

The administration has not been as vocal about or is largely ignoring the trade with Russia of several other countries, which include some European Union members.

Countries whose trade with Russia is being largely ignored:

Slovakia

Hungary

Germany

Italy

The United Arab Emirates

Uzbekistan

[Rudradev]

By the same token, the pressure on India re: trade with Russia came out of nowhere. India has been buying & re-exporting Russian energy for years now, including several months of Trump's own second term, without a peep from Washington.

Which makes me all the more certain that the current drama of secondary penalties is a test of will, nothing more. If India kept buying as much oil from Russia but switched from other (Gulf) suppliers to the US as a source... or for that matter if India ordered a 100-odd F15-ex or F21s for the IAF... Trump would forget all about the supposed harm that India-Russia trade causes the Ukrainians.

Case in point: all the above "ignored" offenders except Uzbekistan are either NATO countries or in UAE's case, another sort of American protectorate.

This isn't about fair trading practices or equalizing deficits, it's only about the willingness to swap the prerogatives of national sovereignty for subjugation to US dominion. For India, that's a total nonstarter.

Expect things to get worse before they get better. At the same time, Trump will make critical errors sooner rather than later with this approach as he tries it in more & more theatres of interest. There was a reason why America went about its empire-management under a mask of globalist benevolence from the post-Vietnam era onwards, and Trump will soon find out why.

[chetak]

...MEA statement is a principled one - not sure if it will get India to the goal post.

It has to be said at least once. That will set the stage for give and take in the negotiations going forward. My guess is that EU/US hypocrisy is out there for all to see. Global south believes India more than EU/US. That has been quite obvious when our MP delegations reached out to the world.

The above memo is an indication that India can give back as good as it gets.

Vayutuvan ji,


It's diplomatese for f o.


nothing more, nothing less


The word "negotiation" has neither been vocalized, and nor has it been implied.


Never disturb an enemy when he is making a mistake

[Vayutuvan]

The word "negotiation" has neither been vocalized, and nor has it been implied.
Never disturb an enemy when he is making a mistake

Good one. My feeling is that American Big Business wants Democrats back. They are cheaper to buy. Sona bandar wants big bucks - gold plated aircraft and such. I am sure Medvedev's X post has been noted by leaders all over the world - the one about Mossad being not the only only one who can squeeze testimonials of the bandar in the Epstein affair.

[A_Gupta]

Trump sees tariffs as a fine paid by the exporter country. The higher the tariff, the more the fine.

Apart from not realizing that tariff is paid by the importer, Trump does not realize that once the tariff he imposes is high enough to make some goods uncompetitive in the American market, further increase in tariff is meaningless.

But it is not just Trump that is clueless. A bunch of otherwise shrewd Gujju businessmen types that are huge Trump admirers had this crazy idea about how tariffs work - say an item of $100 comes into the US from China with a $30 tariff. It will sit on the shelf of an American retailer, and remain unsold if an American producer can sell at a price of $120. Let’s say the American producer can produce at $140 only. Trump will give them $20 of the tariff and $10 the Federal government will keep. The Chinese good will sit on the shelf or be sent back to China.

This learned theorist could not answer why any more Chinese goods would be imported to keep the $30 tariff revenue stream going to in turn give the American manufacturer their $20 for each item produced. A bit stunned by the question.

These don’t tangle with me much more, but latest was “we like how Trump is flexing American muscle”.

I can vaguely grasp MAGA love of Trump; he is giving them back the racial & religious hierarchy of the 1950s. I simply can’t understand how any desi can be taken in by this BS artist for more than five minutes. My conspiracy theory is that there is something in the food or water that a lot of people are susceptible to that makes them dumb.

[Vayutuvan]

Which makes me all the more certain that the current drama of secondary penalties is a test of will, nothing more. If India kept buying as much oil from Russia but switched from other (Gulf) suppliers to the US as a source...

Yesterday I heard on one of the news channels on Samsung Plus that India has turned back several tankers from Russia in the last week or two as our refineries do not have any more capacity to store the crude.

If so, then there is one more twist to the plot.

[Vayutuvan]

Here is an item from US News and World report

https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/ar ... yt-reports

India to Maintain Russian Oil Imports Despite Trump Threats, Government Sources Say
By Reuters Aug. 2, 2025, at 4:41 a.m.

...
But while the Indian government may not be deterred by Trump's threats, sources told Reuters this week that Indian state refiners stopped buying Russian oil after July discounts narrowed to their lowest since 2022 - when sanctions were first imposed on Moscow - due to lower Russian exports and steady demand.

Indian Oil Corp, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp and Mangalore Refinery Petrochemical Ltd have not sought Russian crude in the past week or so, four sources told Reuters.
...

But then one of the reporters is Sivam Patel.

[Tanaji]

Trump sees tariffs as a fine paid by the exporter country. The higher the tariff, the more the fine.

Apart from not realizing that tariff is paid by the importer, Trump does not realize that once the tariff he imposes is high enough to make some goods uncompetitive in the American market, further increase in tariff is meaningless.

I realise that this is the popular narrative that Trump doesn’t understand how tariffs work, but I refuse to believe that anyone is that clueless. Trump has non stupid members in his staff- they would point it out even in the unlikely scenario that Trump is stupid.

No, the better explanation is that the tariff war is a part of a strategy driven either by ideology that inflation is an acceptable risk to rid the US of cheap Chinese goods dependency or someone is trying to make lots of money by gaming the market fluctuations each announcement brings or both…

Either way there are no stupid people around …

[Vayutuvan]

No, the better explanation is that the tariff war is a part of a strategy driven either by ideology that inflation is an acceptable risk to rid the US of cheap Chinese goods dependency or someone is trying to make lots of money by gaming the market fluctuations each announcement brings or both…

This. My bets are on this - dollars to donuts.

[Vayutuvan]

In Telugu, there is a saying swamy kaaryamu tana kaaryamu, i.e. Acting once to serve master's interests as well as one's own interests. In Organizational Behavioralist jargon it is called Management by Objective.

[A_Gupta]

No, the better explanation is that the tariff war is a part of a strategy driven either by ideology that inflation is an acceptable risk to rid the US of cheap Chinese goods dependency or someone is trying to make lots of money by gaming the market fluctuations each announcement brings or both…

Either way there are no stupid people around …

Maybe there are no stupid people around, and my senses are deceiving me.

But explain to me the point of "500% tariffs". If imports from a country become unviable at say, 75%, what additional impact does a 500% tariff have? It is like saying "I will kill you twenty times". Once is more than enough, no?

[pravula]

Which makes me all the more certain that the current drama of secondary penalties is a test of will, nothing more. If India kept buying as much oil from Russia but switched from other (Gulf) suppliers to the US as a source...

Yesterday I heard on one of the news channels on Samsung Plus that India has turned back several tankers from Russia in the last week or two as our refineries do not have any more capacity to store the crude.

If so, then there is one more twist to the plot.

That’s not how tankers work. They have been used during Covid times to store excess oil

[skumar]

Welcome statement from MEA.

Par yeh dil maange more. Would have ideally liked to see something more -

• Bring Pakistan into the picture and say that it is surprising to see the US making deals with countries supporting terrorism.

• Drive the knife deeper about hypocrisy with something like "It is difficult to see how Indian purchases of Russian energy finance the war but US and EU purchases don't."

[Vayutuvan]

That’s not how tankers work. They have been used during Covid times to store excess oil

Oh Nice. Good catch.

[A_Gupta]

https://apnews.com/article/state-depart ... d0995d7509

WASHINGTON (AP) — The State Department is proposing requiring applicants for business and tourist visas to post a bond of up to $15,000 to enter the United States, a move that may make the process unaffordable for many.

In a notice to be published in the Federal Register on Tuesday, the department said it would start a 12-month pilot program under which people from countries deemed to have high overstay rates and deficient internal document security controls could be required to post bonds of $5,000, $10,000 or $15,000 when they apply for a visa.

....
The bond would not apply to citizens of countries enrolled in the Visa Waiver Program, which enables travel for business or tourism for up to 90 days. The majority of the 42 countries enrolled in the program are in Europe, with others in Asia, the Middle East and elsewhere.

I believe India is one of the "high overstay rate" countries, but have no confirmation.

[gakakkad]

https://apnews.com/article/state-depart ... d0995d7509

WASHINGTON (AP) — The State Department is proposing requiring applicants for business and tourist visas to post a bond of up to $15,000 to enter the United States, a move that may make the process unaffordable for many.

In a notice to be published in the Federal Register on Tuesday, the department said it would start a 12-month pilot program under which people from countries deemed to have high overstay rates and deficient internal document security controls could be required to post bonds of $5,000, $10,000 or $15,000 when they apply for a visa.

....
The bond would not apply to citizens of countries enrolled in the Visa Waiver Program, which enables travel for business or tourism for up to 90 days. The majority of the 42 countries enrolled in the program are in Europe, with others in Asia, the Middle East and elsewhere.

I believe India is one of the "high overstay rate" countries, but have no confirmation.

India is not high overstay. Overstay rates are comparable to visa waiver program countries and among the lowest in the world.


https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files ... 3-Data.pdf

There are so many negative things about India that we assume to be true but are completely false .worst of all even well meaning Indians inadvertently propagate such stuff .

[A_Gupta]

There are so many negative things about India that we assume to be true but are completely false .worst of all even well meaning Indians inadvertently propagate such stuff .

Thanks! @Gakkakad - though I did not assume; I relied on AI, and it told me (now obviously hallucinating on one point - ) My prompt was about high visa overstay rates.

Yes, India is known for a high number of visa overstays in the U.S., particularly among student and exchange visitors, though the total numbers vary by year. In 2023, for example, India had the highest number of student and exchange visitor visa overstays, with over 7,000 individuals.

The link you provided had 7,081 overstays for India by non-immigrant students and exchange visitors (Table 4) which is indeed the highest absolute number (the next largest is 5,255 from China)>. But yes, in terms of overstay rates as a percentage, it is not high compared to the rest, and that was the AI hallucination, or answering something different from what was asked, which I should have caught.

[Bharadwaj]

Suspend all delivery clearances for Boeing aircraft to Indian companies. Get the rostec 177s tot as a back up. It will require a new design of fighter aircraft but we need to be ready for all consequences. Trump does not seem to realise how deeply his company is invested in the Indian market. Let Don jr know Lindsey Graham's antics in his Father's ear will have consequences well after 2029. We need to have a long term trading relationship with the U.S but not at such a high price.

[gakakkad]

Unfortunately most language models have a subtle anti India bias . Cannot emphasize enough the need for having indigenous models . The ones out there aren't too bad . Just need people to use them . They'll get better of people use them . Unfortunately they don't .

[Rudradev]

https://apnews.com/article/state-depart ... d0995d7509


I believe India is one of the "high overstay rate" countries, but have no confirmation.

India is not high overstay. Overstay rates are comparable to visa waiver program countries and among the lowest in the world.


https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files ... 3-Data.pdf

Trump's targeting of Indians by gouging them with excessive visa application fees is very straightforwardly based on three things:

1) Trump's political support base IS racist white people for whom targeted persecution of non-whites is an end in itself. Extracting jizya from Indians is as much a part of this as forcibly deporting anyone who looks like a Latino with indigenous blood (regardless of actual immigration status).

2) Indians are known to have money and to submit quietly when mugged/robbed. If a student's hopes, aspirations, and remitted tuition fees are held to ransom, the Hindu parent will pay without complaint to secure the visa on which it all depends; likewise, a business owner will shell out with fatalism to preserve his/her business opportunities rather than try to hire lawyers and fight the extortion in court.

3) There are in fact a large number of Indian businesspersons and students who try to go to the United States compared to citizens of many other countries. So Trump either makes money through the flagrant extortion of these people or discourages them from showing their brown faces in the US at all-- a win-win from his point of view.

[Prem Kumar]

I was having a casual conversation with some Indian parents about the *proposed bond* to prevent overstaying, i.e. $1500 or something that will be refunded only if they returned within the 6 month visitor visa window

Some of them casually stated that people will not mind forgoing the amount if they wanted to stay longer

Not only are these people talking from a position of wealth, but the nonchalance shocked me. Most of us don't seem to have "stomach for the fight" (i.e. fight via lawsuits against discrimination, organize ourselves better, hire lobbyists, get Congressmen/Senators on our side etc). More dangerously, we don't realize that we are frogs being slowly cooked

Hinduphobia & anti-Indian racism seem to be the most acceptable form of hatred in the US these days. What was beneath the surface is out in full pride & glory

I fear the day when things come to a pass, like the Japanese internment camps. Our folks will wake up that day