India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

[A_Gupta]

Trump’s playbook in Pakistan is outlined in this December 2024 article.

https://jstribune.com/runde-expanding-u ... -projects/

PS: the article says, “ In the Balochistan region, the embattled Reko Dik mine, which underwent a long international arbitration process and only recently went under new contract, is home to one of the largest untapped copper and gold resources in the world, with an estimated 400 million tons of gold valued at over $1 trillion.”

But the Reko Dik mine will generate $74 billion over 37 years. $1 trillion in gold would be about 16.2K tons.

[gakakkad]

I am going through the inflation report. prices are "creeping up" however index is stable at 2.7%. What is keeping it stable is reduced gas/energy prices. India should for 2 months halt russian crude imports. The US inflation will shoot up like crazy. fir aukat pe ayenge.

[vera_k]

Won't work. OPEC has committed to increasing output, and US demand will start going down with the end of summer.

Global energy review 2025

[chetak]

US trying to hedge against that eventuality by propping failed Marshall and don't be surprised if an American base comes up in beediland. The company at the moment operates forward bases out of parts of beediland.

Did Failed Marshall indicate that Pakis might actually basea few missiles in You-anus by saying "starting from the east"? What are the chances of BD giving a base or two to the pakis?

Vayutuvan ji,

This time the attack on India will come from a paki pincer movement, and both sides of the pincer will be amriki (operating from the shadows) instigated and financed. This double envelopment is what the pakis and the amrikis have been developing since when they planned hasina's regime change and the insertion of youanus the puppet into the ecosystem. The pakis have inserted themselves into the beedi ecosystem in a very quick fashion.

And on both sides of the pincer, the amrikis are greedily eyeing mineral rights, not to mention the entire NE which has been on their radar since before 1947

kaneda, greenland, the artic are all part of the same agenda for acquiring REE and other mineral resources

The russkis are sitting on every type of REE and other resources that the amrikis need to reduce their dependencies on the cheen

cheen is playing it's own game and needs to enmesh India in its geopolitical agenda. It needs a cooperative India and her markets to push her objectives and India's ports and road/rail infrastructure may be seen as an alternate to gwadar in terms of movement of goods in terms of sheer tonnage

[Amber G.]

..... Amazing nobody saw this betrayal coming.

FWIW: I’ve spent over half a century in the US, and I’m baffled that anyone still finds this “betrayal” amazing. In my circles, nobody expected Trump to behave otherwise — his basic nature has never changed. He’s always been a man for whom alliances are props, principles are negotiable, and loyalty is strictly a one-way street. The real shock isn’t what he did — it’s that some people are still capable of being shocked.

Yes, as I said before I don't usually post in this thread (and some times ignore reading some posters).... I know that in some quarters, even the mildest criticism of Trump instantly gets you branded a “Dumocrat” or accused of having full-blown TDS — which is why so many people just bite their tongue and watch the show.. I am glad more people are waking up..

By any reasonable measure, the current “equal-equal” equivalence between terrorists and their victims is unprecedented in its ugliness — worse than anything I saw even in the Nixon era (and I’ve been here in the US watching closely since the Johnson/Kennedy years, so trust me on that). What makes it more disheartening is that it was entirely predictable, and yet one of the biggest conmen in US (or even Indian) history still manages to command an almost cult-like following. I still hope we come out ahead and sanity prevails — but there are some tough times ahead.

[Deans]

I am going through the inflation report. prices are "creeping up" however index is stable at 2.7%. What is keeping it stable is reduced gas/energy prices. India should for 2 months halt russian crude imports. The US inflation will shoot up like crazy. fir aukat pe ayenge.

We will be hurt more than the US by a rise in oil prices - and China will gain by buying more from Russia and Iran.
A better option will be to reduce the $ holdings in our forex reserves - as others are doing. That will increase US interest rates, which will
put pressure on inflation, just as the impact of tariffs are starting to be visible in the form of inflation - by the end of the year.

[pravula]

I am going through the inflation report. prices are "creeping up" however index is stable at 2.7%. What is keeping it stable is reduced gas/energy prices. India should for 2 months halt russian crude imports. The US inflation will shoot up like crazy. fir aukat pe ayenge.

We will be hurt more than the US by a rise in oil prices - and China will gain by buying more from Russia and Iran.
A better option will be to reduce the $ holdings in our forex reserves - as others are doing. That will increase US interest rates, which will
put pressure on inflation, just as the impact of tariffs are starting to be visible in the form of inflation - by the end of the year.

CPI data does not include energy or food.

[A_Gupta]

I saw some data which I cannot locate now, I think from JP Morgan, that till July, the exporter yielded 14% of the tariff, the US consumer 22% and the US importer the rest.

That is, the exporter reduced their price, and of the remaining only part was passed on the the consumer.

I also saw that the USD has fallen 11% against the dollar index since January. This makes imports more expensive for US consumers.

[Amber G.]

..kaneda, greenland, the artic are all part of the same agenda for acquiring REE and other mineral resources

The russkis are sitting on every type of REE and other resources that the amrikis need to reduce their dependencies on the cheen

FWIW - adding a few points (From Bharat's perspective especially if: Trump remains Trump)

-REEs are not actually “rare” in terms of crust abundance — they’re just rarely found in economically viable concentrations.

- Refining REEs is messy, environmentally hazardous, and expensive — that’s why China’s dominance is partly because it tolerated the pollution others wouldn’t. (China produces around 60–70% of global REE supply, but .. it controls over 85% of the refining and processing capacity — the chokepoint in the supply chain.

- Greenland’s REEs are often found alongside uranium, making mining politically sensitive.

- Some “rare earth” critical elements (like dysprosium, terbium) are much rarer than others — and those are the ones most vital for high-performance magnets.

We talked about India's REE in other dhaga's -- India has monazite sands along the Kerala, Odisha, and Tamil Nadu coasts, rich in REEs (especially light REEs like cerium, lanthanum, neodymium).

But we lack large-scale refining facilities, so much of the ore is exported or underutilized. (This is changing.. hopefully fast..GoI is aware)

( India is partnering with Japan and Australia through the Quad to diversify REE supply chains away from China.. and friendship with Mangolia etc is not bad too).

With current Trumpiness India has to have good Plan B as some of its projects with US may not work eg :
- US–India Critical Minerals Partnership (2023)
(In June 2023, during PM Modi’s state visit, the US and India launched a joint initiative on critical minerals (-- REEs, lithium, cobalt, and graphite).-- Before Trump so it may be in trouble.
- DOE–Bhabha Atomic Research Centre REE collaboration- (Trump is unpredictable)

(Other well known items like Quad joint venture and some private Indo-US groups in the field)

(A less known item - The US was also quietly encouraging Indian REE exports via Japan for defense manufacturing supply chains — a kind of indirect route to bypass China-- IMO That’s more vulnerable to political turbulence than the big public projects )

[Amber G.]

Meanwhile: Unbelievable.

Trump's US is on a self-immolation mode officially! They expect Pakistan to counter terrorism and India to pay for standing up to a bully!

[Amber G.]

Meanwhile: In the news: Hindu temple has been desecrated in United States. This time at @BAPS
Mandir in Greenwood, IN by Khalistani goons. Fourth incident in less than a year in United States. No action by local law enforcement or the top US administration..
--
Indian Consulate in Chicago statement on desecration of BAPS Hindu temple.

“Desecration of main signboard of the BAPS Swaminarayan Temple in Greenwood, Indiana is reprehensible. The Consulate is in touch with the community and has raised the matter with law enforcement authorities for prompt action. Today Consul General addressed a gathering of devotees and local leadership including Hon’ble Mayor of Greenwood, calling for unity & solidarity, and vigilance against miscreants there.”

[Vayutuvan]

CPI data does not include energy or food.

Just now saw a graphic (caveat: on FNN) that energy prices fell by 11% (or was it 14%? but I am erring on the +ve side lest I am tarred with a MAGAt sobriquet), no appreciable change in food prices and inflation at 2.5%. It was 9+% in 2022.

[Vayutuvan]

Yes, as I said before I don't usually post in this thread (and some times ignore reading some posters)...

Thank god for small mercies. Really thank you from the bottom of my heart.

Now I got your attention, where are our Indian-American congress critters? There is not a peep from these worthies, all democrats. At least, Niki Haley did post on X protesting Orangutan's betrayal.

Where are the democrats including Baptist KD?

[Vayutuvan]

I saw some data which I cannot locate now, I think from JP Morgan, that till July, the exporter yielded 14% of the tariff, the US consumer 22% and the US importer the rest.

Tariffs yielded $35 B and $28 B in the past two month period, supposedly. Maria Bartiromo reported just now. All market indices are up today - DJI, S&P, ... She said she talked to several CEOs and board members of public companies and all are optimistic that tariffs are not going to cause many problems going forward. They seem to be OK with the tariffs now that there is clarity on what Trump wants to do.

[Vayutuvan]

"Betrayals" is the foundation on which realpolitik is built. Nobody should be surprised, dismayed, or even get angry at BRF posters for pointing out that every US admin had betrayed India in one way or the other at one time or the other. Kennedy for example did not agree to provide nuclear umbrella to India.

All those watchers of Indo-US relations on top of being nuclear experts would know why India had to start their weapons program.

[A_Gupta]

https://www.reuters.com/business/financ ... 025-08-12/

Trump rebukes Goldman's Solomon over bank's tariff research

In a note published on Sunday, Goldman Sachs analysts, led by chief economist Jan Hatzius, said U.S. consumers had absorbed 22% of tariff costs through June and that figure could rise to 67% if recent tariffs continue on the same trajectory.

…
Tariffs have proven to be a sensitive topic for companies and banks. A senior JPMorgan Asset Management investment strategist this year said he had held back on some of his public comments on U.S. tariffs due to concerns about the impact his full opinions would have on his colleagues and on the Wall Street bank.
Other companies have faced pressure on tariffs. The White House accused Amazon in April of a "hostile and political act" with its reported plan to list prices of goods in light of new tariffs - which the e-commerce company later said was an idea that it did not put into place. Trump in May said Walmart should "eat the tariffs" rather than raise prices.

[A_Gupta]

US inflation:

Price changes over last year (July CPI report)
Gas Utilities: +13.8%
Electricity: +5.5%
Used Cars: +4.8%
Medical Care: +4.3%
Food away from home: +3.9%
Shelter: +3.7%
Transportation: +3.5%
Overall CPI: +2.7%
Food at home: +2.2%
New Cars: 0.4%
Fuel Oil: -2.9%
Gasoline: -9.5%

[bala]

What expectations do people have about Indo-US relations? Didn't the then Rothschild Deep State (whose hdqtrs is in Germany) control the Britshits on the colonial loot spree along with the Dutch, French, Spainiards, Portuguese clients and then after WW-II moved to the US to dictate terms and conditions. We are dealing with the same entity no different than before. The US will never be India's friend and sometimes they resort to enemy status like Pak after Op Sindoor. All those in the US of Indian background are part of the plan to get global talent from across the world to help the US become numero uno and stay there. Once you are on the top you fear the rising chaps like Cheens, India, etc., which according to plan needs to be quelled/subdued. Russia/Soviet was the traditional counter but after soviet collapse things have shifted into countering Russia with NATO. Since the 90s it has been Russia russia russia with all the politicos in the US. Any side slightly aligned with Russia was at the receiving end of the wrath of the US. They used to have these harvard type dudes on TV who gamed scenarios and India would always be at the receiving end (losing of course) of some moronic tactically brilliant move (very similar to Paks) made by the US against Russia.

Currently on the battle field the US is cutting a sorry figure. Their Ukraine gamble is for naught. All the help given to Ukraine was zilch except for the huge money (siphoned of by Zels) drain. No NATO forces can take any human losses on the battlefield, very ill equipped for long drawn wars, short in supply of critical stuff and losing ground day after day. Ukraine is a loss for the deep state. Another loss for the deep state is China since they decided to move manufacturing away from China. Now, the deep state is resorting to taking their aggression on India, Iran and others, pussycats and cowards.

[Rakesh]

VIDEO: https://x.com/MattooShashank/status/1955460549388668981 --->

Question: Can India rely on the United States in the long term?

Singapore's Ambassador Bilahari Kausikan: India doesn't rely on the US. India has a long history of relying only on itself. You don't need America to defend you.

[A_Gupta]

“Rely” for defense, never. “Rely” as in having reliable economic and technology partnerships that don’t change on a whim is important.

[Rudradev]

“Rely” for defense, never. “Rely” as in having reliable economic and technology partnerships that don’t change on a whim is important.

Changing on a whim is actually the Achilles Heel of the current US administration. It would be nice if Trump could be induced to lean into his trademark capriciousness more heavily than ever. Each time he changes tack abruptly, it creates another huge strain on the machinery of governance, and demands another massive waste of effort by staffers as they're forced to pivot their priorities, implementation and messaging accordingly. The more he does it, the more exhausted the whole system will become.

Ultimately, Trump's governing technique will not survive his self-inflicted stress tests. The important thing is that when the critical failure comes, he must not escape public responsibility for it (as he has for every miserable failure throughout his career). He must relentlessly be exposed as the furthest thing possible from what he promised to be. Not MAGA, but MAWTE (Made America Worse Than Ever).

[Amber G.]

Singapore's Ambassador Bilahari Kausikan: India doesn't rely on the US. ..

Rakesh - Also very relevant is:
The 3rd India-Singapore Ministerial Roundtable (ISMR) was convened in New Delhi today.