India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

[A_Gupta]

Trump’s playbook in Pakistan is outlined in this December 2024 article.

https://jstribune.com/runde-expanding-u ... -projects/

PS: the article says, “ In the Balochistan region, the embattled Reko Dik mine, which underwent a long international arbitration process and only recently went under new contract, is home to one of the largest untapped copper and gold resources in the world, with an estimated 400 million tons of gold valued at over $1 trillion.”

But the Reko Dik mine will generate $74 billion over 37 years. $1 trillion in gold would be about 16.2K tons.

[gakakkad]

I am going through the inflation report. prices are "creeping up" however index is stable at 2.7%. What is keeping it stable is reduced gas/energy prices. India should for 2 months halt russian crude imports. The US inflation will shoot up like crazy. fir aukat pe ayenge.

[vera_k]

Won't work. OPEC has committed to increasing output, and US demand will start going down with the end of summer.

Global energy review 2025

[chetak]

US trying to hedge against that eventuality by propping failed Marshall and don't be surprised if an American base comes up in beediland. The company at the moment operates forward bases out of parts of beediland.

Did Failed Marshall indicate that Pakis might actually basea few missiles in You-anus by saying "starting from the east"? What are the chances of BD giving a base or two to the pakis?

Vayutuvan ji,

This time the attack on India will come from a paki pincer movement, and both sides of the pincer will be amriki (operating from the shadows) instigated and financed. This double envelopment is what the pakis and the amrikis have been developing since when they planned hasina's regime change and the insertion of youanus the puppet into the ecosystem. The pakis have inserted themselves into the beedi ecosystem in a very quick fashion.

And on both sides of the pincer, the amrikis are greedily eyeing mineral rights, not to mention the entire NE which has been on their radar since before 1947

kaneda, greenland, the artic are all part of the same agenda for acquiring REE and other mineral resources

The russkis are sitting on every type of REE and other resources that the amrikis need to reduce their dependencies on the cheen

cheen is playing it's own game and needs to enmesh India in its geopolitical agenda. It needs a cooperative India and her markets to push her objectives and India's ports and road/rail infrastructure may be seen as an alternate to gwadar in terms of movement of goods in terms of sheer tonnage

[Amber G.]

..... Amazing nobody saw this betrayal coming.

FWIW: I’ve spent over half a century in the US, and I’m baffled that anyone still finds this “betrayal” amazing. In my circles, nobody expected Trump to behave otherwise — his basic nature has never changed. He’s always been a man for whom alliances are props, principles are negotiable, and loyalty is strictly a one-way street. The real shock isn’t what he did — it’s that some people are still capable of being shocked.

Yes, as I said before I don't usually post in this thread (and some times ignore reading some posters).... I know that in some quarters, even the mildest criticism of Trump instantly gets you branded a “Dumocrat” or accused of having full-blown TDS — which is why so many people just bite their tongue and watch the show.. I am glad more people are waking up..

By any reasonable measure, the current “equal-equal” equivalence between terrorists and their victims is unprecedented in its ugliness — worse than anything I saw even in the Nixon era (and I’ve been here in the US watching closely since the Johnson/Kennedy years, so trust me on that). What makes it more disheartening is that it was entirely predictable, and yet one of the biggest conmen in US (or even Indian) history still manages to command an almost cult-like following. I still hope we come out ahead and sanity prevails — but there are some tough times ahead.

[Deans]

I am going through the inflation report. prices are "creeping up" however index is stable at 2.7%. What is keeping it stable is reduced gas/energy prices. India should for 2 months halt russian crude imports. The US inflation will shoot up like crazy. fir aukat pe ayenge.

We will be hurt more than the US by a rise in oil prices - and China will gain by buying more from Russia and Iran.
A better option will be to reduce the $ holdings in our forex reserves - as others are doing. That will increase US interest rates, which will
put pressure on inflation, just as the impact of tariffs are starting to be visible in the form of inflation - by the end of the year.

[pravula]

I am going through the inflation report. prices are "creeping up" however index is stable at 2.7%. What is keeping it stable is reduced gas/energy prices. India should for 2 months halt russian crude imports. The US inflation will shoot up like crazy. fir aukat pe ayenge.

We will be hurt more than the US by a rise in oil prices - and China will gain by buying more from Russia and Iran.
A better option will be to reduce the $ holdings in our forex reserves - as others are doing. That will increase US interest rates, which will
put pressure on inflation, just as the impact of tariffs are starting to be visible in the form of inflation - by the end of the year.

CPI data does not include energy or food.

[A_Gupta]

I saw some data which I cannot locate now, I think from JP Morgan, that till July, the exporter yielded 14% of the tariff, the US consumer 22% and the US importer the rest.

That is, the exporter reduced their price, and of the remaining only part was passed on the the consumer.

I also saw that the USD has fallen 11% against the dollar index since January. This makes imports more expensive for US consumers.

[Amber G.]

..kaneda, greenland, the artic are all part of the same agenda for acquiring REE and other mineral resources

The russkis are sitting on every type of REE and other resources that the amrikis need to reduce their dependencies on the cheen

FWIW - adding a few points (From Bharat's perspective especially if: Trump remains Trump)

-REEs are not actually “rare” in terms of crust abundance — they’re just rarely found in economically viable concentrations.

- Refining REEs is messy, environmentally hazardous, and expensive — that’s why China’s dominance is partly because it tolerated the pollution others wouldn’t. (China produces around 60–70% of global REE supply, but .. it controls over 85% of the refining and processing capacity — the chokepoint in the supply chain.

- Greenland’s REEs are often found alongside uranium, making mining politically sensitive.

- Some “rare earth” critical elements (like dysprosium, terbium) are much rarer than others — and those are the ones most vital for high-performance magnets.

We talked about India's REE in other dhaga's -- India has monazite sands along the Kerala, Odisha, and Tamil Nadu coasts, rich in REEs (especially light REEs like cerium, lanthanum, neodymium).

But we lack large-scale refining facilities, so much of the ore is exported or underutilized. (This is changing.. hopefully fast..GoI is aware)

( India is partnering with Japan and Australia through the Quad to diversify REE supply chains away from China.. and friendship with Mangolia etc is not bad too).

With current Trumpiness India has to have good Plan B as some of its projects with US may not work eg :
- US–India Critical Minerals Partnership (2023)
(In June 2023, during PM Modi’s state visit, the US and India launched a joint initiative on critical minerals (-- REEs, lithium, cobalt, and graphite).-- Before Trump so it may be in trouble.
- DOE–Bhabha Atomic Research Centre REE collaboration- (Trump is unpredictable)

(Other well known items like Quad joint venture and some private Indo-US groups in the field)

(A less known item - The US was also quietly encouraging Indian REE exports via Japan for defense manufacturing supply chains — a kind of indirect route to bypass China-- IMO That’s more vulnerable to political turbulence than the big public projects )

[Amber G.]

Meanwhile: Unbelievable.

Trump's US is on a self-immolation mode officially! They expect Pakistan to counter terrorism and India to pay for standing up to a bully!

[Amber G.]

Meanwhile: In the news: Hindu temple has been desecrated in United States. This time at @BAPS
Mandir in Greenwood, IN by Khalistani goons. Fourth incident in less than a year in United States. No action by local law enforcement or the top US administration..
--
Indian Consulate in Chicago statement on desecration of BAPS Hindu temple.

“Desecration of main signboard of the BAPS Swaminarayan Temple in Greenwood, Indiana is reprehensible. The Consulate is in touch with the community and has raised the matter with law enforcement authorities for prompt action. Today Consul General addressed a gathering of devotees and local leadership including Hon’ble Mayor of Greenwood, calling for unity & solidarity, and vigilance against miscreants there.”

[Vayutuvan]

CPI data does not include energy or food.

Just now saw a graphic (caveat: on FNN) that energy prices fell by 11% (or was it 14%? but I am erring on the +ve side lest I am tarred with a MAGAt sobriquet), no appreciable change in food prices and inflation at 2.5%. It was 9+% in 2022.

[Vayutuvan]

Yes, as I said before I don't usually post in this thread (and some times ignore reading some posters)...

Thank god for small mercies. Really thank you from the bottom of my heart.

Now I got your attention, where are our Indian-American congress critters? There is not a peep from these worthies, all democrats. At least, Niki Haley did post on X protesting Orangutan's betrayal.

Where are the democrats including Baptist KD?

[Vayutuvan]

I saw some data which I cannot locate now, I think from JP Morgan, that till July, the exporter yielded 14% of the tariff, the US consumer 22% and the US importer the rest.

Tariffs yielded $35 B and $28 B in the past two month period, supposedly. Maria Bartiromo reported just now. All market indices are up today - DJI, S&P, ... She said she talked to several CEOs and board members of public companies and all are optimistic that tariffs are not going to cause many problems going forward. They seem to be OK with the tariffs now that there is clarity on what Trump wants to do.

[Vayutuvan]

"Betrayals" is the foundation on which realpolitik is built. Nobody should be surprised, dismayed, or even get angry at BRF posters for pointing out that every US admin had betrayed India in one way or the other at one time or the other. Kennedy for example did not agree to provide nuclear umbrella to India.

All those watchers of Indo-US relations on top of being nuclear experts would know why India had to start their weapons program.

[A_Gupta]

https://www.reuters.com/business/financ ... 025-08-12/

Trump rebukes Goldman's Solomon over bank's tariff research

In a note published on Sunday, Goldman Sachs analysts, led by chief economist Jan Hatzius, said U.S. consumers had absorbed 22% of tariff costs through June and that figure could rise to 67% if recent tariffs continue on the same trajectory.

…
Tariffs have proven to be a sensitive topic for companies and banks. A senior JPMorgan Asset Management investment strategist this year said he had held back on some of his public comments on U.S. tariffs due to concerns about the impact his full opinions would have on his colleagues and on the Wall Street bank.
Other companies have faced pressure on tariffs. The White House accused Amazon in April of a "hostile and political act" with its reported plan to list prices of goods in light of new tariffs - which the e-commerce company later said was an idea that it did not put into place. Trump in May said Walmart should "eat the tariffs" rather than raise prices.

[A_Gupta]

US inflation:

Price changes over last year (July CPI report)
Gas Utilities: +13.8%
Electricity: +5.5%
Used Cars: +4.8%
Medical Care: +4.3%
Food away from home: +3.9%
Shelter: +3.7%
Transportation: +3.5%
Overall CPI: +2.7%
Food at home: +2.2%
New Cars: 0.4%
Fuel Oil: -2.9%
Gasoline: -9.5%

[bala]

What expectations do people have about Indo-US relations? Didn't the then Rothschild Deep State (whose hdqtrs is in Germany) control the Britshits on the colonial loot spree along with the Dutch, French, Spainiards, Portuguese clients and then after WW-II moved to the US to dictate terms and conditions. We are dealing with the same entity no different than before. The US will never be India's friend and sometimes they resort to enemy status like Pak after Op Sindoor. All those in the US of Indian background are part of the plan to get global talent from across the world to help the US become numero uno and stay there. Once you are on the top you fear the rising chaps like Cheens, India, etc., which according to plan needs to be quelled/subdued. Russia/Soviet was the traditional counter but after soviet collapse things have shifted into countering Russia with NATO. Since the 90s it has been Russia russia russia with all the politicos in the US. Any side slightly aligned with Russia was at the receiving end of the wrath of the US. They used to have these harvard type dudes on TV who gamed scenarios and India would always be at the receiving end (losing of course) of some moronic tactically brilliant move (very similar to Paks) made by the US against Russia.

Currently on the battle field the US is cutting a sorry figure. Their Ukraine gamble is for naught. All the help given to Ukraine was zilch except for the huge money (siphoned of by Zels) drain. No NATO forces can take any human losses on the battlefield, very ill equipped for long drawn wars, short in supply of critical stuff and losing ground day after day. Ukraine is a loss for the deep state. Another loss for the deep state is China since they decided to move manufacturing away from China. Now, the deep state is resorting to taking their aggression on India, Iran and others, pussycats and cowards.

[Rakesh]

VIDEO: https://x.com/MattooShashank/status/1955460549388668981 --->

Question: Can India rely on the United States in the long term?

Singapore's Ambassador Bilahari Kausikan: India doesn't rely on the US. India has a long history of relying only on itself. You don't need America to defend you.

[A_Gupta]

“Rely” for defense, never. “Rely” as in having reliable economic and technology partnerships that don’t change on a whim is important.

[Rudradev]

“Rely” for defense, never. “Rely” as in having reliable economic and technology partnerships that don’t change on a whim is important.

Changing on a whim is actually the Achilles Heel of the current US administration. It would be nice if Trump could be induced to lean into his trademark capriciousness more heavily than ever. Each time he changes tack abruptly, it creates another huge strain on the machinery of governance, and demands another massive waste of effort by staffers as they're forced to pivot their priorities, implementation and messaging accordingly. The more he does it, the more exhausted the whole system will become.

Ultimately, Trump's governing technique will not survive his self-inflicted stress tests. The important thing is that when the critical failure comes, he must not escape public responsibility for it (as he has for every miserable failure throughout his career). He must relentlessly be exposed as the furthest thing possible from what he promised to be. Not MAGA, but MAWTE (Made America Worse Than Ever).

[Amber G.]

Singapore's Ambassador Bilahari Kausikan: India doesn't rely on the US. ..

Rakesh - Also very relevant is:
The 3rd India-Singapore Ministerial Roundtable (ISMR) was convened in New Delhi today.

[Amber G.]

India has a long history of relying only on itself...

Here is out EAM: <video clip>

..it is essential in times of unpredictability to stand firmly on our own feet. Atmanirbharta is, of course, the mindset to deal with global turbulence. But it is also the basis to strengthen our self-confidence, to increase our resilience, and to lay the foundation for Viksit Bharat..."

"We are a civilizational state, a society that has withstood the test of time and nurtured its culture, traditions, and heritage. Our real strengths have been our people and their self-belief. We have overcome adversities and we have addressed multiple challenges in the journey towards progress and prosperity. We have so much to be proud of and so much to share with the world... While we will always benefit by such openness, it is essential in times of unpredictability to stand firmly on our own feet. Atmanirbharta is, of course, the mindset to deal with global turbulence. But it is also the basis to strengthen our self-confidence, to increase our resilience, and to lay the foundation for Viksit Bharat...

[Amber G.]

Brazilian President Lula says he will host an online BRICS meeting to discuss response to Trump’s tariffs.
Lyla says, 'democracy, commercial respect, multilateralism matter to us'
'Gamble United States is making might not work out for them.'

[A_Gupta]

White House Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/WhiteHouse/pos ... 778723345/

[gakakkad]

^ we are living in the South Park universe

[drnayar]

VIDEO: https://x.com/MattooShashank/status/1955460549388668981 --->

Question: Can India rely on the United States in the long term?

Singapore's Ambassador Bilahari Kausikan: India doesn't rely on the US. India has a long history of relying only on itself. You don't need America to defend you.

Careful. More democracy can come !

[uddu]

"PM Modi Should Nominate Him For Nobel Twice": US Ex-NSA's Jibe At Trump

Former US National Security Advisor John Bolton has accused Donald Trump of needlessly antagonising India, calling the steep tariffs imposed on New Delhi "a mistake in the bilateral relationship."

The ex-Trump aide's remarks came after the former president hit India with some of the highest US tariffs -- 50% overall, including a 25% penalty for buying Russian oil. Bolton argued this approach was "backward" and "damaging" to ties between the two nations.

[chetak]

VIDEO: https://x.com/MattooShashank/status/1955460549388668981 --->

Question: Can India rely on the United States in the long term?

Singapore's Ambassador Bilahari Kausikan: India doesn't rely on the US. India has a long history of relying only on itself. You don't need America to defend you.

Careful. More democracy can come !

drnayar ji,

disregard this clown, singapore's sole interest in India is encapsulated by just one single word "Temasek"

this country only shows its velvet glove, and it is selectively apolitical, completely amoral, and has always been driven by self interest and its foreign policy has always been and still is: the devil take the hindmost

[Tanaji]

Bolton is a nobody now and largely irrelevant.

The Trump - Putin talks are unlikely to yield anything significant. There are good chances that Trump will further raise duties to make an example - largely irrelevant as beyond a point there is no impact of the increase. But it will provide enjoyment for the likes of Pappu….

[A_Gupta]

https://www.business-standard.com/econo ... 847_1.html

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday warned that Washington could raise its current 25 per cent secondary tariff on India if American President Donald Trump’s meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday fails to make headway on Ukraine. He also asked the European Union to impose a similar secondary levy on India.

“We put a secondary tariff on Indians for buying Russian oil, and I could see if things don’t go well (in the Trump-Putin meeting), then sanctions or secondary tariffs could go up,” Bessent told Bloomberg Television. “President Trump is meeting with President Putin, and the Europeans are in the wings carping about how he should do it, what he should do. The Europeans need to join us in these sanctions. The Europeans need to be willing to put on these secondary sanctions.”

[Rudradev]

Hmmm...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 07302.html

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent fails to divest his financial holdings and hit with watchdog warning
Bessent, a former hedge fund manager, reportedly has a net worth of around $600 million

Rachel Dobkin
in New York
Thursday 14 August 2025

The NYT reported Bessent’s biggest potential conflict of interest is his soybean and corn farmlands in North Dakota, which are worth an estimated $25 million.

[Tanaji]

I don’t get it: the oil demand doesn’t go away magically by putting in tariffs. If EU joins in, doesn’t crude just become more expensive for everyone including EU? Indian crude consumption is not insignificant…

What does India do if EU do decide to join in? I wonder if they would have so many exemptions that the impact would be small…

We are just being made examples of. Trump won’t dare tariff China.

[Rudradev]

EU tariffs are like Swiss cheese. Even if EU as a whole does decide to impose tariffs (which I doubt), the 27 individual nations can each agree to whatever carve-outs and exemptions make the most sense for them, and the impact will be minimal if any.

[gakakkad]

I think India should employ and eu strategy. Seemingly give him a win but impose massive tarriffs or other barriers at state level .

As far as milk products are concerned 1) American milk won't sell in India . It's yucky . Chai made from it tastes weird . 2) local psy-ops about cow eating beef . 3) people will develop intolerance to it rapidly anyway . I can only drink a2 milk . 4) will enhance domestic innovation in some much needed segment . Like no good Indian option for whey protein . For a country whose diet is protein deficient by choice whey protein is a good way to make up for "vegetarian " source of protein and major Indian milk players aren't doing it even though they easily can.

Like harley davidson unwanted products won't sell in India. And the necessary ones will be cheaper . Like blueberry .

I think they need some creativity.

[hanumadu]

https://www.business-standard.com/econo ... 847_1.html

The Europeans need to join us in these sanctions. The Europeans need to be willing to put on these secondary sanctions.”

I think the Europeans will eventually join US and put secondary sanctions on us. Isolating Russia did not work. They are unable to isolate China. They will try isolating India next. How many countries will stand with us? Will Russia stand with us? Will China? China stood with Russia because they know they are next. India did not go all out against China for the same reason. Will China return the favour?

What will Brazil, BRICS and other south - south countries do when the US signs trade deals with them and try to isolate India? Will the coalitions India built last or is it every man for himself?

When China starts eating America's lunch eventually, America can't count on India if they mess with us now. India will join China against America. A lot of countries like Japan and SE Asia will be pissing in their pants if China becomes stronger because of America's actions against India.

If the west crosses it's limit we should choose China even if temporarily just to screw the west over. China is much closer to USA with only the pacific ocean in between them. Geographically China is a bigger rival to the US than India. India, Russia, China, Brazil together will tilt the balance in their favour. If India falls, BRICS will fall and there is a danger of China eventually falling to the west. If either India or China falls, Russia is done.

[hanumadu]

I think India should employ and eu strategy. Seemingly give him a win but impose massive tarriffs or other barriers at state level .

It's not just the tariffs alone, its the Russian oil too. They seem to be going all out on it. If the west can't get Ukraine's territory back and worse, if Russia continues to occupy more territory and cut's off sea access to Ukraine, the west will be the laughing stock of the world. Russia is making faster progress in Ukraine now. Ukraine seems to be running out of men and they are recruiting 60 year olds.

India should not stop buying Russian oil now because once the US tastes blood, it will not stop. There will be no end to demands.

[drnayar]

"diversion, deception, and division"

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/toi ... 280456.cms

Directly related to American interference in Bharats internal affairs

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s ‘vote chori’ allegations have triggered a huge political
row with many questioning the integrity of the Election Commission of India. Former
Election Commissioner Ashok Lavasa says that the commission was wrong in asking
Gandhi to file an affidavit

Sow doubt create divisions

[Rudradev]

I think the Europeans will eventually join US and put secondary sanctions on us. Isolating Russia did not work. They are unable to isolate China. They will try isolating India next. How many countries will stand with us? Will Russia stand with us? Will China? China stood with Russia because they know they are next. India did not go all out against China for the same reason. Will China return the favour?

What will Brazil, BRICS and other south - south countries do when the US signs trade deals with them and try to isolate India? Will the coalitions India built last or is it every man for himself?

The unspoken thing in the international diplomatic community-- nobody, but nobody is happy with Trump's penchant for tariffs. It is a threat to governments, industries, multinational corporations, and stock markets alike.

Various neighbours living in a housing colony may like or hate each other as a general affair, but when the sewer pipe bursts it is everybody's problem to manage. And that's how nearly all capitals are viewing this, as a time-bound problem to manage (it will cease either with the end of Trump's presidency, or with the takeover of the House and Senate by Democrats in the midterms, or as a result of massive popular backlash in the US when the failing economy really starts to sting and Trump chickens out).

A second thing: India is the world's largest consumer market and the only large economy growing at a significant rate. This IS leverage. Trump will be gone in three years at the most. India will always be there, and despite whatever setbacks it faces in the next two-three years, it will still be the largest consumer market and at least among the top five economies in the world for the foreseeable future. India will remember who stood with it and who with Trump in these trying years. Other countries know this.

[Rudradev]

I think India should employ and eu strategy. Seemingly give him a win but impose massive tarriffs or other barriers at state level .

As far as milk products are concerned 1) American milk won't sell in India . It's yucky . Chai made from it tastes weird . 2) local psy-ops about cow eating beef . 3) people will develop intolerance to it rapidly anyway . I can only drink a2 milk .

OT, but this is actually true of American milk.

I grew up in India drinking the standard subcontinental buffalo milk for the most part. I could drink litres of it and never have a problem.

As soon as I went to America and started drinking the milk there, I noticed that I get just a slight amount of acidity/queasiness in the stomach if I drink more than a very limited amount of milk (far, far less than Indian buffalo milk at any rate).

Sensitivity to lactose is generally governed by allelic variations in the LCT and MCM6 genes, but I don't think that's what's going on here (I CAN drink Indian milk after all). It could be more similar to how harboring autoreactive T-lymphocyte populations that recognize certain isoforms of gliadin can cause coeliac disease when gluten is included in the diet. It's possible that the casein in American dairy cows' milk has a slightly different structural conformation than that in Indian buffalo milk, leading to immunogenic activation of my desi T-cell clones that otherwise tolerate Indian casein peptides, and a borderline autoimmune reaction if the antigenic load crosses a certain threshold.