Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

[Vayutuvan]

https://x.com/connect_rishav/status/1956780803469222151 --->
2. He also confirmed that friendly Intel played an important part

What does that mean? It almost sounds like we got some intel inputs from a friendly country. The only country I can think of Russia.

[Anujan]

War of IAF, PAF doctrines: As Pakistan obsesses over numbers, India embraces risk, wins
https://theprint.in/national-interest/i ... r/2722096/
16 August 2025

Also it is important to point out that while India might have scored more Aircraft kills, most of Indian kills were from small missiles, which were hidden in the dark and attacked Pakistani aircraft in the back. The Pakistani airforce pilots on the other hand scored their kills face to face while openly flying, with long range missiles while making tight turns.

PS> Pakistanis were comprehensively debriefed and their musharrafs handed to them by SDREs. I have no idea why we still have rona dhona about who hit what. If you have any doubt, please see the earthworks that SDREs constructed where a hangar used to be in Bholari

Old foggies like me remember how much rona dhona there was after Kargil, where Musharraf boasted that they had done "strategic redeployment", and had successfully internationlized the Kashmir issue. SDREs were dhoti shivering at that time as well, wondering if we really won that war. Heck even mainstream SDRE media was debating whether it was Paki regulars or "mujahideen" fighting in Kargil. Or if India had to get US help for Pakis to withdraw, and didnt really win that fight. Peearef coined the term "downhill skiing" to counter Paki propaganda.

The only conspiracy theory I am willing to believe vis a vis op Sindoor is this:

Pakis launched a Shaheen 2 missile towards dilli outskirts as an intimidation tactic, expecting that India would sue for peace, thinking that the escalation has gotten out of hand. This was intercepted by an akash or a Barak 8. This was followed by IAF hitting all their air-bases, undergrounded C&C centers with a vengence. Followed by statements that India wont be intimidated by nuclear sabre rattling. Followed by statements about Sudarshan Chakra mission.

If this is true, the mission planning and war gaming of Op Sindoor is far superior to what we understand. Even before the start of the operation, response to every scenario must have been thought through, including the shaheen over dilli scenario. If Pakis want to act like a mad dog to get out of wars they started, India found one more rung in the escalation ladder, and found a way to slap that dog with a chappal.

[S_Madhukar]

The only stat missing is how many Lahore aunties fainted or passed away scared after seeing some drones hit their targets. That has more repercussions than 10/11 bases getting hit

[putnanja]

https://x.com/connect_rishav/status/1956780803469222151 --->
2. He also confirmed that friendly Intel played an important part

What does that mean? It almost sounds like we got some intel inputs from a friendly country. The only country I can think of Russia.

I would guess Israel, given their spy satellites monitoring round the clock in that area of Pak/Iran

[S_Madhukar]

What does that mean? It almost sounds like we got some intel inputs from a friendly country. The only country I can think of Russia.

I would guess Israel, given their spy satellites monitoring round the clock in that area of Pak/Iran

I would guess some Afghans might have also some humint

[Dilbu]

The kill mark shows a canard . Mirage F1 didn't have canard

Hakim ji, then that is problem, ain't it? Did our ACM lie or the marking is a lie?

I have a theory. India is currently mending the fences with China and may not be too keen to announce an A2A kill against a chinese fighter jet. Things have moved and shifted quite a bit from the time we were happy to announce how Akash Teer performed against chinese maal while F16 kills were not announced.

[S_Madhukar]

In the age of Social Media, the FOMO on clicks is the primary driver. I won't mention names but even the so-called reliable sources kept peddling fake news for 3 days straight trying to gather as many views and clicks as possible, every couple of hours it was some Paki pilot in our custody, half a dozen of their J-10s and F-16s downed in Jammu and Punjab, Karachi harbor destroyed, mutiny against Munir and some even mentioned military has takenover the govt in Bangladesh!

While Pakis have invested millions on lobbysts in the west and placing reporters in established mainstream media outlets, we damage our reputation thanks to screaming youtubias and news anchors who care more about views than reporting real news.

I think AIM and some others have said that they had been encouraged by some in GoI to push those narratives on the 1st night... I too got caught up in that frenzy. I barely slept those 3 nights hoping some of that might happen!

[prashantsharma]

I am of the view that the way the op evolved led to an outcome better than we had originally aimed for. Blowing up a few buildings had largely symbolic value. At most if lucky some bearded bigshots might have been blown up. The cost of the missiles probably was more than the cost of the targets. But it was necessary from a signalling POV and necessary to tick that box. If they didnt escalate, we would have also called it a day and actual loss inflicted on terrorist aka pak military would have been just a few cr inr of brick and mortar. Some indian self respect restored. Slight deterrent stick shaking, thats all. But no real change in pak attitude.

But the way the pak military tried hitting back at the indian bases was a big wrong move as it then made it possible for us to inflict some serious damage (my guess is 2-3 usd bn) of actual losses on the pak military who are the actual bosses of the terrorists, not azhar et al. Increasing the cost on the pak military is the best way to stop terror. But reaching the stage of mil-mil strikes doesnt happen overnight and has to go through its own evolutionary / escalatory process - look at the evolution of indian retaliation starting from 2016 surgical strikes to 2019 balakot to now. Had pak not foolishly escalated in op sindoor, there would have had to be more intermediate steps till the time india hit and imposed costs dirextly on pak military. They gave us the justification on a platter to do it. In the process we skipped ahead a couple of years. Next time i am quite certain that the operation will begin with hitting pak air defences amd other mil targets on day 1 itself, and higher actual $$ and human costs on the pak military.
And there surely will be another round of this.

[Aditya_V]

Pakis had gamed that J10C, PL15 will bring down lots of IAF Aircraft and sprayed them, not realising many landed harmlessly intact mostly because of Jamming, they also got 1 or 2 Banshee Drones, they also hoped for another capture of an IAF pilot. When that did not happen, they tried to hit back due to H&D, the Paki awam atleast most of them now know thier faujis are lying badly.

All they are left with that Aurangazeb guys PPT's and a Failed Marshal

[Roop]

I would guess some Afghans might have also some humint

Those were my thoughts too, exactly. Humint inside TSP.

[VinodTK]

Operation Sindoor and its impact on India’s Strategic Blind Spot

The China Challenge
For decades, India’s foreign policy and defense strategy have been shaped by its turbulent relationship with Pakistan. From cross-border terrorism to territorial disputes, Pakistan has remained the focal point of India’s security apparatus. For a while India started to look at the Chinese threat however, after operation Sindoor looks like the focus has shifted to Pakistan again in the evolving geopolitical landscape of the 21st century, this singular focus risks overshadowing a more formidable and complex challenge—China.

The Expanding Shadow of China
China’s rise as a global superpower has been marked not only by its economic prowess but also by its assertive military and diplomatic strategies. Its deepening ties with Pakistan, including the supply of advanced military hardware and joint infrastructure projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), signal a strategic alignment that directly impacts India’s security calculus. Moreover, China’s activities in the Indian Ocean, its border infrastructure buildup, and its aggressive posturing along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) reflect a broader ambition to dominate the region.

Despite multiple rounds of diplomatic talks and high-profile visits—such as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s trip to Delhi and Prime Minister Modi’s engagements with Beijing—mistrust between the two nations remains entrenched. The Galwan Valley clashes of 2020 were a stark reminder that dialogue alone cannot resolve deep-rooted strategic tensions. While diplomacy is essential, it must be backed by a clear-eyed assessment of China’s long-term intentions.

Diplomacy or Delusion?
India’s continued engagement with China, despite ongoing border tensions and strategic encroachments, is New Delhi misreading Beijing’s signals. China’s simultaneous overtures to Pakistan and its provocative actions in disputed territories suggest a dual-track strategy—one that uses diplomacy as a veneer while pursuing hard power objectives.

Critics argue that India’s diplomatic efforts may be interpreted by China as a sign of strategic indecision or weakness. The risk is that India, in trying to avoid a two-front conflict, may inadvertently embolden China to push its boundaries further, both literally and figuratively.

The Need for Strategic Recalibration
India must recognize that the China-Pakistan nexus is not merely a bilateral concern but a regional power play with global implications. While Pakistan remains a persistent irritant, China represents a systemic challenge—militarily, economically, and technologically. Ignoring this reality could leave India vulnerable to strategic surprises and diminish its influence in the Indo-Pacific. A recalibrated strategy would involve strengthening alliances with like-minded nations (Japan, Philippines, South Korea, and ASEAN countries) investing in indigenous defense capabilities, and adopting a more assertive posture in regional forums. It also requires a shift in mindset—from reactive diplomacy to proactive deterrence.

Conclusion
India stands at a crossroads. The traditional focus on Pakistan, while understandable, must evolve to reflect the changing dynamics of global power. China’s ambitions are far-reaching, and its partnership with Pakistan only amplifies the threat. If India continues to take its eyes off China, it risks falling into a strategic trap that could compromise its long-term security and regional standing. The time for recalibration is now—not after the next border crisis.

Created using ChatGPT

[vonkabra]

Frankly, its the US which has pushed India to re-engage with China, mostly thanks to the tariff issues it has created both for India and the rest of the world. Given a possible economic slowdown in India, there is no choice but to engage with China to at least ensure continued supply of rare earths and fertilizers as well as explore other trade opportunities. Personally, I'm in favour of Chinese investments in India as long as they are not in critical sectors like Telecom - that is because in case we ever have a war with them, we should have some economic assets to seize.

Finally, commercial engagement hardly means that we will not continue improving our defence preparedness vis-a-vis the Chinese or focus on becoming more self reliant in terms of critical resources to reduce dependency on them.

[vonkabra]

Coming back to the ACM's lecture, some points which don't seem to have been discussed enough:
1. No mention of the Meteor at all. In fact there has been no mention of Meteor usage in any source if you discount some bunkum articles claiming that India did receive the Meteor in the first place. Very interesting, considering that after Balakot, all the discussion was about how it was going to be the Rafale/ Meteor combination which would be the gamechanger in the next conflict.
2. The actual gamechanger, of course, was the S400. While the IAF has been chasing the MMRCA since 2001, the S400 was not even on the IAF's radar till Manohar Parrikar pushed for the acquisition in 2018. Also it does not look like we redeployed the S400 regiment from the NE to the Western Front, so the results are all the more more impressive. Makes one wonder what would have been achieved if all 5 regiments were in place.
3. The ACM indicated that there was an initial very massive buildup taking place on the Pakistani side and once the first missile was fired by India from the ground, the Pakistani buildup started dissipating. Wish he had given some more details around this - the date and the area in which the build-up was happening and how many planes were shot down during this engagement. Would have been interesting to map this with other developments during the period.
4. The ACM seemed happy with the role played by the CDS, so that's a good omen for future joint operations.
5. The camera man covering the ACM's lecture should have been drawn and quartered.

[Aditya_V]

Yes the question has the Meteor been delivered and Integrated with Indian Rafale fleet? I suspect it is happening later this year and one of reasons Munir did Pulwama due to overconfidence in HQ 9B and PL 15 combo.

[SRajesh]

What is that has pissed Unkil post Op Indoor??
Did we hit a covert 4i's centre built and manned by Americans??
And has that led to loss of lives that has upset them so much so that Centcom and the POTUS has taken to wining and dining the Cheif Jihadi!!
And we hit that centre knowing well about american personnell or was just a hunch or an unknown factor
Or more sinister: were the americans upto no good and crossed some red lines during the Ops that centre was taken down!!
Me feeling is that its the last line : some red lines crossed and hence action taken.
Also if the persons manning were true blue GI Joe's there would have a huge diplomatic row!!
Hmm could it be a some sort of CIA secret ops : contract security agency guys???
Whatever it is this has sure poked the Eagle's butt!!!

[chetak]

Yes the question has the Meteor been delivered and Integrated with Indian Rafale fleet? I suspect it is happening later this year and one of reasons Munir did Pulwama due to overconfidence in HQ 9B and PL 15 combo.

Aditya_V ji,


failed marshal did not anticipate the magnitude of OP Sindoor response because they had the "bum" which they thought would protect them from any major attack by India

bunker boy got his jihadi butt reamed out good and proper, well before he knew what had hit him

Modi ji was sending out a message to multiple players, the paki army was only one of them.

more than OP Sindoor, the abrogation of the IWT was what hit the pakis right in their पतलून, because, as the abdoools and ayeshaaas have figured out, how can a country that "lost" the war impose such a condition on the victors

trumpwa wants India's endorsement for his nobel, because this is the one recommendation that carries a lot of heft where it counts

[skumar]

India could never have agreed to give Trump any credit for anything to do with Pakistan.

Imagine what would have happened if India did give credit and Trump got the big prize. It would put a lid on Indian responses to any further escalations. It is basically a carte blanche to Pakistan to continue with terrorist attacks because you cannot stop a dog from wagging its tail.

Not sure how the Trump team gamed this to work out or probably they did not because things in the WH don't work the same way anymore.

The pressure on India is inversely proportional to the chances that Trump sees in trying to resolve to the Ukraine conflict. He is not going to get a Nobel for Gaza where the US is completely isolated in its current stand. nor for Iran after he bombed Iran.


MSNBC (definitely some confirmation bias here, would not trust them usually) calls out Trump's claims to have “solved” anywhere between 6 and 10 wars around the world (depending on which day you ask him) – a claim that doesn’t hold water. Ana Marie Cox tells Ali Velshi that Trump’s boastful claims about his diplomacy compensate for the fact that he’s a terrible negotiator. In both domestic and foreign policy, Trump “doesn't see these things in terms of negotiations with a compromise, but as deals with a winner and a loser,” says Cox.

[Rishi]

Face to Face with Hero; Did we really hit plane 300 km away?

The aim of the presentation was to cover what happened during Operation Sindoor and the IAF's thought process during the short but swift conflict that began.

https://x.com/connect_rishav/status/1956780803469222151 ---> Some new details revealed by former IAF airman (and MiD) IAF, who served as battery operator of the S-400 during Op Sindoor.

1. Apart from the aircraft kills, the S-400 unit also scored confirmed kills of cruise and ballistic missiles as well as a loitering munition!

2. He also confirmed that friendly Intel played an important part as the crew was being notified about the possible kind of threats they would be facing. Also, he mentioned that F-16 was among the aerial target neutralized by S-400. (they have proper electronic evidence).

3. "They did their best to find us but they failed. We didn't even get a scratch from the projectiles that Pakistan launched against us.", he said.

There is a very precise 314km distance to the shot. And also that it was shot after take off in Peshwar area (so Peshawar or Kohat). Where in India is 314 km away from Peshawar? Its not in Punjab...

[Rishi]

314 Km is distance from Srinagar and Avantipur to Kohat. Which means.. we have networked individual S400 launchers to ADGES? So command module is in say Adampur while some of the launchers .. 300km away? That then practically enables us a no fly zone over all of Pak other than Quetta area...

[Amber G.]

Book reveals how Ajit Doval uncovered Pakistan's nuclear secrets disguised as beggar
Ajit Doval, working undercover in Pakistan in the early 1980s, exposed the country’s secret nuclear programme by disguising himself as a beggar and collecting scientists’ hair from a barber shop that tested positive for uranium traces.

[Amber G.]

First major contact since Operation Sindoor: India alerts Pakistan on possible flooding; IWT remains in abeyance

ndia has alerted Pakistan about a potential flood in Tawi River, according to a news agency PTI that quoted a local Pakistani news report. Even as the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) remains in abeyance following the Pahalgam terror attack, the report claimed that India contacted Pakistan to share information about possible flooding.
A report from The News, which cited sources, claimed that India conveyed the alert through its High Commission in Islamabad on Sunday. However, neither New Delhi nor Islamabad has issued an official confirmation. The report further said that such information is usually shared through the Indus Water Commissioners under the 1960 treaty.
This is believed to be the first significant contact since the India-Pakistan conflict in May. Following the alert received from India, Pakistani authorities have reportedly issued warnings for vulnerable areas.

[uddu]

'I Just Asked One Question...': Rajnath Singh Makes Another BIG Revelation On Operation Sindoor

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh asked only one question to the three chief's. Are you ready for the operation? And all the three chief's replied, Sir, we are ready for any type of operation.

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh has revealed yet another chilling secret about Operation Sindoor, India’s covert strike against Pakistan-backed terror groups. Speaking in Jodhpur, Rajnath recalled the tense April 22 meeting with all three service chiefs, hours after terrorists massacred 26 civilians in Pahalgam. When asked about readiness, the Army, Navy, and Air Force chiefs instantly gave the green signal. Singh emphasized the contrast: while terrorists killed based on religion, India’s soldiers targeted only the guilty, proving the moral clarity of India’s response. He underlined that India’s ethos is Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam, the world is one family, but warned that terror will be crushed without hesitation. Operation Sindoor’s strikes on terror camps in Pakistan and PoK marked a decisive retaliation, showcasing India’s resolve, precision, and moral authority.