Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

[chetak]

[Vayutuvan]

In a remarkable transformation, Indian ports have shed their sluggish past to emerge as high-efficiency hubs. Turnaround time for ships has plummeted from 4 days in 2014 to less than a single day, outpacing even several developed nations.
...
source: the-pulse.in

Volume and number of ships is also important right? , i.e. the ratio (turn around time)/volume or (TAT/#Ships)

[V_Raman]

^^Are you saying that the trade-in value (4L) is not deducted from new car value for GST purposes? Some states in the USA allow it and some do not for calculating Sales Tax.

Correct, trade in value cannot be deducted. Furthermore, let's say the cost on the new car (to the shop) is 7L and GST on that is, let's say 10%, i.e. 0.7 L. This 0.7L is recoverable against the sale price but if trade in value is used then the sale GST is 0.4L, i.e. the shop can actually recover 0.3L from the state! This is contrary to the duty of care in the collection of a "sales tax".

Are we saying I, as a buyer of the new car, have a way to recover the GST on the trade-in value - 4L in this case?

[Lisa]

If you sell your second hand car to your friend, do you charge and repatriate GST to the state?

[A_Gupta]

If you sell your second hand car to your friend, do you charge and repatriate GST to the state?

Such sales have no GST per a variety of websites.
e.g., https://myraasta.in/blogs/do-i-have-to- ... lete-guide

[bala]

State wise GDP or GSDP for 2024-25. TN leads the pack in growth.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GxpCXONawAA ... name=small

[AkshaySG]

State wise GDP or GSDP for 2024-25. TN leads the pack in growth.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GxpCXONawAA ... name=small

Poor #s from Madhya Pradesh keeping in mind the low base and almost continuous BJP government... Both it and Raj have immense potential to industrialize but the execution has been lacking and now both have fallen deeper into freebies focused vote buying

[Lisa]

If you sell your second hand car to your friend, do you charge and repatriate GST to the state?

Such sales have no GST per a variety of websites.
e.g., https://myraasta.in/blogs/do-i-have-to- ... lete-guide

Accordingly, the Indian government is right to charge full GST on sale price of a new car and to decline an allowance for the excange of a second hand car.

[drnayar]

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/photo ... 97236.html



The golden discovery: Massive gold deposits found in MP's Jabalpur, geologists confirm treasure
The discovery, located in the Mahgawan Keolari area of Sihora tehsil, came after a prolonged and painstaking survey by the Geological Survey of India

"The evidence is conclusive," said a senior official from the department, adding, "The chemical tests confirm substantial traces of gold, along with copper and other precious minerals. This could be one of the most important mineral discoveries in central India in recent years."

[A_Gupta]

Just FYI, the world’s proven gold reserves amount to about 60,000 tons of gold, and about 200,000 tons of gold have been mined in all of human history.

[pravula]

Just FYI, the world’s proven gold reserves amount to about 60,000 tons of gold, and about 200,000 tons of gold have been mined in all of human history.

nonsense. Ocean alone has around 20 million tons. https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace ... den-ocean/

[drnayar]

Just FYI, the world’s proven gold reserves amount to about 60,000 tons of gold, and about 200,000 tons of gold have been mined in all of human history.

nonsense. Ocean alone has around 20 million tons. https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace ... den-ocean/

well thats interesting., some have gone to the extent of mining asteroids for Gold and another minerals.. when they could have developed technologies to extract all that right here on earth !

[nandakumar]

I recall a line in an essay by A.G. Gardiner on Letter Writing. Lamenting the demise of the Art of good Letter Writing he blames the penny post system introduced in the UK in the late 19th century. He says, "If diamonds were as plentiful as pebbles nobody would stoop to pick them up"! May be nations' central bankers should have a say on what precious metal can be mined and by how much. Talking of which, the same would apply to mining crypto currencies as well.

[drnayar]

Deleted

[A_Gupta]

Just FYI, the world’s proven gold reserves amount to about 60,000 tons of gold, and about 200,000 tons of gold have been mined in all of human history.

nonsense. Ocean alone has around 20 million tons. https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace ... den-ocean/

Please note “proven reserve” in what I said.
Please understand what a proven reserve means.

Proven (or Measured) Reserve: This is the highest confidence category of mineral reserves. It means that:
- The quantity, quality, and location of the mineral are well established through detailed exploration and sampling.
- The economic feasibility of mining it has been demonstrated, typically through engineering studies and cost analysis.
- The reserve is supported by geological evidence and technical data, such as drilling results and geophysical surveys.

For gold in ocean water, the economic feasibility of extraction has not been demonstrated. At one gram of gold per 100 million tons of water it is likely to never be economically feasible to extract.

For another example, Pakistan may have $6 trillion in minerals, but their proven reserve is not more than $100 billion (at the present time).

Waiting to hear what the Jabalpur discovery translates into proven reserves.

[pravula]

Well, we now have a breeder reactor for making gold. https://www.theatlantic.com/science/arc ... on/683811/

[A_Gupta]

Well, we now have a breeder reactor for making gold. https://www.theatlantic.com/science/arc ... on/683811/

Yes, thanks, but "a working fusion reactor capable of producing enough neutrons cost-effectively for this process {of converting mercury-198 in mercury-197 that decays to gold-197" does not yet exist. Likely much more probable to come about than the extraction of gold from sea-water, but not yet here. Maybe asteroid mining will come first? (e.g., this https://theprint.in/opinion/giant-aster ... er/260482/ )

[Cyrano]

[A_Gupta]

Another example of mineral resources vs proven reserves: the Reko Dik mine in Pakistan.

Total Mineral Resources:

The overall Reko Diq deposit contains approximately 5.9 billion tonnes of ore with an average copper grade of 0.41% and a gold grade of 0.22 g/t.

Economically Mineable Portion:

A portion of the deposit, estimated at 2.2 billion tonnes, is considered economically viable with an average copper grade of 0.53% and a gold grade of 0.30 g/t.

[drnayar]

https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/de ... -milestone

The value of defence production in India reached a record high of INR1.50 trillion (USD17.2 billion) in fiscal year (FY) 2024–25, India's Minister of Defence Rajnath Singh has announced.

The newly announced value amounts to an 18% increase over the FY 2023–24 output of INR1.27 trillion, Singh said in a 9 August post on social media site X.

The total production value represents the annual turnover reported by India's defence public sector undertakings (DPSUs), other PSUs and joint ventures involved in defence manufacturing, and private defence entities.

According to Indian Department of Defence Production (DDP) data, DPSUs accounted for about 77% of the total production in FY 2024–25 with INR1.16 trillion. Private defence companies constituted the remaining 23% – a 2% increase compared with FY 2023–24 – with INR339.7 billion production value.

While the DPSUs recorded about 16% growth in FY 2024–25 over the previous fiscal year's production value of about INR1 trillion, private defence companies marked an increase of more than 27% over last year's value of INR266.7 billion.

In the last eight years, total defence production has increased steadily, with more than a 100% increase over the INR740.5 billion production value recorded in FY 2016–17, according to the DDP.

[ritesh]

Hope with the upcoming GST reforms, govt scraps 18% rate in favour of 12%.

Also, try and give rebate on high ticket items where GST paid is 5k or more while filing IT by individuals, say upto 25-33%.

Finally, govt shd introduce TCS @10% on items costing 50k or above. This would help in taxing the population who avoids tax by fraudulent means or in zero% tax bracket.

[chetak]

[Kakkaji]

Paging Suraj San and other ECON Gurus of BRF:

Can you please review my post on "PSU Privatization/ Strategic Disinvestment" and comment?

TIA

[Suraj]

Xposting from Twitter:
Indian export performance milestones
July 2025 saw two major milestones being reached or almost reached in Indian foreign trade:
* Total trailing 12 month (Aug 24 - Jul 25) services exports crossed $400 billion
* Total exports are almost at $850 billion.

[chetak]

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/russia- ... ns-9123371

Russia Offers 5% Discount On Oil To India Amid Trump Tariff Tensions

[drnayar]

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/russia- ... ns-9123371

Russia Offers 5% Discount On Oil To India Amid Trump Tariff Tensions

Is 5% a big deal ?

[drnayar]

https://worldview.stratfor.com/situatio ... despite-us

It's 5 USD per barrel. Not 5%

current crude price per barrel running around 65 to 70 , this is a good discount

Import volumes are substantial, with figures often exceeding 4.5 million barrels per day. , thats a saving of 20 million USD per day and 600 million per month. Add the profit from the refined derivatives !

can we live without it ? certainly so i think.

But a lot more has to do with what the US has done, the way it did is in no way an allied country should behave ., the shoe is on the other foot

[uddu]

https://x.com/MeghUpdates/status/1958462156938027163
@MeghUpdates
BIG BREAKING

India’s Composite PMI surges to 65.2, the fastest private sector growth in nearly 20 years.

➡ Manufacturing PMI: 59.8
➡ Services PMI: 65.6

It's a clear sign of booming demand across different sectors of the Indian economy & it's definitely not dead!

[uddu]

A must watch
Reposting from Modi 3.0
India Will Benefit From The Tariff War: Sudhanshu Trivedi's Full Speech From Republic Bharat Samwad


The entire lecture by BJP National Spokesperson Sudhanshu Trivedi explores "Siyasat, Itihaas Aur Samvad"—the complex interplay of politics, history, and discourse in forming contemporary India. Renowned for his eloquent viewpoint and profound knowledge of Indian culture, Dr. Trivedi shares his perspectives on how political narratives are crafted, how historical context is understood, and how meaningful discourse is still essential to democracy.

We learn about Dr. Trivedi's open perspectives on the development of Indian politics, the significance of historical tradition in contemporary administration, and the ways that public discourse can heal divisions in a multicultural society. Anticipate stimulating discussions on issues from the past and present, the value of disagreement and discussion, and how politics (Siyasat) and discourse (Samvad) support India's development into a thriving democracy.

[uddu]

The Road to Viksit Bharat is paved with Process Reforms" Talk by Shri Sanjeev Sanyal | IISER Pune


Title: The Road to Viksit Bharat is paved with Process Reforms

Speaker: Shri Sanjeev Sanyal,
Member, Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council

Venue: C V Raman Auditorium, Lecture Hall Complex, IISER Pune campus

About Speaker
Shri Sanjeev Sanyal is currently a Member of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Economic Advisory Council (since 2022) with the rank of Secretary, Government of India. He is also the Chancellor of Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, Pune. He was earlier the Principal Economic Adviser to the Finance Minister for five years till February 2022. He has also represented India on many international forums such as OECD and G7, and served as Co-Chair of the G20's Framework Working Group.

Since joining the government in early 2017, he was involved in many key reforms. For his contributions to public service, Sanjeev Sanyal was given the KPS Menon Memorial Award for 2023. The award is named after India's first foreign secretary. Prior to joining the government, he spent over two decades in international financial markets, and served as Chief Economist for South & South-East Asia, and later as Global Strategist and a Managing Director at Deutsche Bank.

An alumnus of Shri Ram College of Commerce, Delhi University, Mr. Sanyal later attended Oxford University as a Rhodes Scholar. He was awarded the Eisenhower Fellowship in 2007 for his work on urban systems. In 2010 he was named as Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum in Davos. He has been a visiting professor/fellow of numerous institutions such as Oxford University, Royal Geographical Society (London), Institute of Policy Studies (Singapore), Jawaharlal Nehru University (Delhi). He also chairs the board of advisors of the Delhi School of Public Policy and Governance (Delhi University) and was a member of the Board of Advisors of the World Cities Summit, Singapore.

Mr. Sanyal is the author of a number of best-selling books including Revolutionaries, Land of the Seven Rivers, The Ocean of Churn, India in the Age of Ideas, The Incredible History of the Indian Ocean, and the Indian Renaissance. He has also published around three hundred articles and columns in leading national and international publications. His writings have received many awards including the Kalinga Book Award 2023, the Art Karat Award 2018, Skoch Award for Economics 2023 and so on.Title: The Road to Viksit Bharat is paved with Process Reforms

[Suraj]

The Q4 official data is out:
Official Q4 2024-25 GDP data

* Full year GDP growth was 6.5% , but may be revised upward in the 2nd review.
* Q4 growth was 7.4%, coming on the back of 6.4% in Q3 and 5.6% in Q2, meaning there's a strong accelerating momentum post election (Fig 4).
* The past three fiscals registered 9.7%, 7,6% and 9.2% GDP growth, so there's a high base effect here. 6.5% growth on the back of three years averaging almost 9% growth is extremely good, and likely to be scaled up.
* The weaker GDP growth this past fiscal is primarily on account of softness in Q2 and to a lesser extent Q3. This is particularly notable in the secondary sector, which also faced a high base effect (Statement 5) - manufacturing in particular looks very soft, but look at the GVA growth in 2023-24 when it grew in the high double digits and that acts as a high base.
* It's not clear why Discrepancies (Statement 6) remains so high and is a brake on GDP growth.
* Item-level growth (Annexure B ) looks ok, except for the drop in private vehicle sales - any idea why ? - and the surprising drop in railways freight traffic in tonne-kms. I don't know why that's the case. With the DFCs in particular, I expected to see growth.

Q1 official data is out!
Official Q1 2025-26 GDP data

Q1 (Apr-Jun) real GDP growth was 7.8%

* This is a substantial gain from 6.5% in the year-ago Q1, and 7.4% in Q4 - the preceding quarter.
* The last four quarters show a sustained rising trend: 5.6% -> 6.4% -> 7.4% -> 7.8%
* The fundamental driver is the restored growth of the tertiary services sector, which grew from 6.8% a year ago to 9.3%.
* Services also compensated for the slight drop in the secondary sector that fell from 8.6% to 7.0%, driven entirely by the drop in electricity/water/gas/utility output growth. Not sure what's driving that. Seems temporary.
* Manufacturing continues to maintain vigor, posting 7.7% growth , slightly over 7.6% in the year ago quarter.
* Investment GDP as measured by GFCF as a percent of GDP in constant terms is 34.5%. It would have crossed 35% but for the relative growth in imports in Q1 vs the year ago quarter.

Overall an excellent situation given all the ongoing uncertainties.

[pravula]

How much of it was due to front loading of imports from US companies I wonder...