Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

[gakakkad]

What are the Saudis scared of . It's the largest Islamic country that's against Muslim brotherhood. ie their government. Are they scared of an Arab spring type uprising ? So porkis are asked to do chowkidari ?

[sudhan]

Whatever it is that the Saudis want, they better get the best out of the deal immediately.

Invoke the mutual defence clause for their needs, before the Pakis do..

Also, am sure they have worked enough loopholes into the treaty (By dangling cash infront of the Failed Marshal) to give themselves room to wiggle out of a potential showdown against India.

[williams]

Whatever it is that the Saudis want, they better get the best out of the deal immediately.

Invoke the mutual defence clause for their needs, before the Pakis do..

Also, am sure they have worked enough loopholes into the treaty (By dangling cash infront of the Failed Marshal) to give themselves room to wiggle out of a potential showdown against India.

Islamic culture - treaties don't matter. They will do what they need to preserve themselves when the time comes. Treaties are pieces of paper for posturing and to bide time. So don't think these treaties mean anything like how our IFS babus treat them. That is one of the problem we have we think things like Simla agreement mean something for the Pakis. So in this case both parties know that they will run away when the rubber hits the road

[drnayar]

https://x.com/pakistan_untold/status/19 ... 5756384517

"Pak journalist: Now Saudi will attack India if India resumes Op Sindoor.

Former Indian Ambassador to Saudi: Don't parrot Pak propaganda. Saudi will never attack India for Pak"

Pak journ: But saar pact saar


good watch !!..

[drnayar]

What are the Saudis scared of . It's the largest Islamic country that's against Muslim brotherhood. ie their government. Are they scared of an Arab spring type uprising ? So porkis are asked to do chowkidari ?

they need some cannon fodder.. border with yemen etc will be warming up soon

[Luxtor]

As mentioned by another BRite above, India doesn't have anything to worry about the Saudis attacking India on behalf of the pukis if you observed the fighting capabilities of the Saudis over decades, especially during the two gulf wars, where the Americans repeatedly had to go in and rescue the Saudis against the Iraqis. This was after decades of comprehensive training and equipping by the West, especially the Americans.

[SSridhar]

Guys, relax.

The Saudis are just asking TSP to give them back their maal and they are formalizing it through an agreement.

The Saudis have a disproportionate influence over TSP which neither the US nor China has.

It is not like 25 years before in the relations between India & KSA. King Fahd, Prince Sultan (defence minister) and Prince Saud Al-Faisal (foreign minister) who shaped the foreign policy for much of those days are no longer there. This triumvirate was decidedly anti-Indian. King Abdullah who took over after Fahd and whom many expected to be even more hawkish, turned out to be otherwise. He quietly changed the India-Saudi narrative. MBS who is ruling on behalf of King Salman (probably the last of the Sudairi Seven) has taken it to a different level.

The Saudis had pursued the nuke ambition for too long. They didn't get the earlier liquid-fuelled Chinese missiles (replaced later with DF-21s) for nothing. They had always feared the Iranians. The Chinese-mediated thaw in the KSA-Iran relationship can never diminish the deep-seated animosity. The Saudis fear the Iranians even more today with their proxies, the Houthis, at the Saudi border. They recruited Gen Rahil Sharif to lead the Muslim Forces Against Terrorism (IMFAT) but it came a cropper. No Arab of GCC nations can fight. Now, they are not sure that Iran's nuke-making capacity has been totally wiped out in the B2 bombing. They are more than skeptical that with Trump around, the US would even stop an Iranian nuclear attack.

While the Saudi-fear of Iran is one reason, they also do not want to be bombed by Israel like in Qatar. That will severely dent the image of the Al-Saud dynasty. MBS has too many enemies, not the least the Wahhabi religious clerics who have been utterly disempowered. The oil-bearing and oil-refining East Coast (Dhahran, Jubail et al) have very sizeable Shia population (extending all the way along the coast from Kuwait to Qatar) who have always been very angry with the Al-Saud dynasty. Since the siege of Makkah in 1979, the Pakistani military protects the Al Yamamh palace in Riyadh.

IMO, this is neither a China-mediated nor a US-mediated deal. It is organic. I am not sure if this is even a well thought out agreement. Looks more like a knee-jerk reaction. MBS is quite impulsive. That clause, 'against one is against both' is in a different context and exceptions cannot be listed in the agreement.

IMO, this is not so bothersome for us though we need to engage the Saudis on this issue and be on our guard.

[S_Madhukar]

So the question is will the TFTA fauj be deployed for good in KSA and will that leave a sufficient gap for us to exploit for our needs - I would rather that their best earn good riyals while allowing us the latitude to do as we please

[drnayar]

The only possible issue is

pakis

1] Gain of strategic depth
2] Access to Saudi military hardware [ mostly newer models American fighters, etc]

5 E-3A and 3 KE-3A Sentry
Saudi Tanker Fleet A330s
Tornados , F15 SA

Would be intersting to see how this can possbly affect IAF tactics

[Tanaji]

There is zero chance SA will provide assets like F15 and Sentry. Lots of spare parts and missiles? Probably. Tankers? Maybe.

Rest is hawabaazi by Pakis.

[Vayutuvan]

https://x.com/pakistan_untold/status/19 ... 5756384517
"Pak journalist: Now Saudi will attack India if India resumes Op Sindoor.

"Pak journalist". You got me there.

[Amber G.]

This Canadian Journalist has some points

India needs to understand why Pakistan thinks that it won the war. This isn’t a normal state that cares about high value targets, geo-strategic positioning or even their airbases.
There are two metrics which Pakistanis (jihadists) measure any conflict. Did we kill Hindus? Did we gain or lose any land?
The targeted murder of Hindus in Kashmir means that one of their war aims was completed before India fired back and the fact that the Islamic world lost no land to the infidels means that the war was a total victory.
To be blunt, if Pakistan were to attack tomorrow and lose 1 million men, 100 aircraft and have their cities blown to bits but managed to kill one Hindu and the border remains the same, that is a Pakistani victory. All of those dead Muslims go to heaven, so that is a win. There is a dead Hindu, so that is another win and the Ummah didn’t shrink which is the ultimate win.
All this being said it means that Operation Sindoor part 2 will happen in response to some terrorist attack and if you want to avoid Operation Sindoor part 3 and deter further terrorism you will need to take at least 1km of land on the border of Kashmir from Pakistan and turn it into a buffer zone (I’d build a bunch of Hindu temples as well).
The entire world will screech uncontrollably like they do when Israel has to defend itself, but that will be the price for peace and stability.

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[Aditya_V]

Occupying 1 km is useless and Pakistani are not normal, they are also paid by the rest of the world to behave exactly that way, Operation Sindoor was a huge successful, but until we reverse the last few hundred years of history there will no peace. But it will take time,

[Amber G.]

^^^"to take at least 1km of land" was tongue cheek ...part about .
"The entire world will screech uncontrollably like they do when Israel has to defend itself, but that will be the price for peace and stability.'' has some nice points...about the need for Bharat to do what it needs to do..

[Aditya_V]

Today we are much stronger relatively than what we were 40 years, our Problems with Pakistan will take time, its full dimensional conflict where only 1 set of population can survive, But for that entire BIF ecosystem is involved. There is no quick fix for it.