Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

[Tanaji]

Thanks AmberG.

It is interesting that they have managed to keep those centrifuges running all this time. I am told the ball bearings for those are not easily available. Clearly they have managed to keep them operational…

[Amber G.]

Thanks AmberG.

It is interesting that they have managed to keep those centrifuges running all this time. I am told the ball bearings for those are not easily available. Clearly they have managed to keep them operational…

Very good point (I have thought and done research too. about this) - YES, the bearing problem is real and nontrivial...

- My Take (qualified assessment - ):

So yes — But if a state prioritizes the program, accumulates spares, invests in repair and machine shops, and uses smart cascade design and maintenance practices.

I'll put some, some reputable evidence and expert analysis showing how Pakistan kept centrifuges running (spares, procurement, in-house machining, and technical fixes) for others to analyze - give me some time)

But my take is there is credible evidence that Pakistan (via the A.Q. Khan network and state procurement) obtained and manufactured the hard-to-get parts (including bearing preforms, specialist machine tools and spares) and developed local repair/fabrication capacity. That’s how centrifuges were kept operational for years — not magic, but supply networks + local engineering.

Expand it later but from what I know in plain language -

-Bearings and other precision parts are hard to buy openly — which is why this enrichment program used a mix of covert procurement, stockpiling, and local machining.

- The A.Q. Khan network provided the procurement channels and know-how to get started; Pakistan then developed domestic means (shops, trained machinists, and repair procedures) to keep things going.

- So when people marvel “how do they keep the centrifuges running?” the answer is: a pragmatic combination of imported parts early on, replication and repair work later, and smart engineering practices (redundancy, vibration control, cascade isolation).

-Added later ..
Some links (All from reputable sources)
-MIT/RS Kemp analysis argues that constructing basic centrifuges has never required a superpower industrial base —just intermediate industrial capability, pressure, and procurement networks.

Reporting and technical summaries on Khan’s procurement (Sanger / investigative pieces describing bearing-groove papers, Malaysian factory, etc.)

also Not a ‘Wal-Mart’, but an ‘Imports-Exports Enterprise’:
Understanding the Nature of the A.Q. Khan Network

Amber G. (quoting from MIT source):

This history argues that, contrary to popular understanding, constructing basic centrifuges has never been cutting-edge or resource-intensive. This breaks with the Manhattan Project mythology that nuclear weapons require techno-industrial greatness. Consequently, technology-based nonproliferation policies flowing from such thinking were arguably misinformed; it is likely that nuclear proliferation has been, or will be, controlled more by motivations than by technological constraints.

[Amber G.]

...Sir/Madam, please understand that i provided a transcript of what Aadi was saying. If you have issues please take it up with him. ...

Zero interest in “taking it up with Aadi.” My goal here, as I said, is simply to share a few technical and historical reality checks on claims in a high-stakes post. Aadi packs in a lot of sensationalism; a few points deserve a quick reality check.

[bala]

Zero interest in “taking it up with Aadi.” My goal here, as I said, is simply to share a few technical and historical reality checks on claims in a high-stakes post. Aadi packs in a lot of sensationalism; a few points deserve a quick reality check.

Just read what you posted .. reproduced here ..

Bala — please read my post in full. The main issue I pointed out was the incorrect use of the term “cold test.” A “cold test” by definition uses a non-fissile core, precisely because there is no nuclear yield. Using the term as if HEU were involved is not only wrong — and lends ZERO credibility to anything that follow..it’s like saying :

“a dry swim in the ocean.”

Also, just to be clear — I never said or implied that Pakistan didn’t have its own device in 1998. What I said was that by 1984, they were likely testing the implosion mechanism they obtained from China — that’s a very different point.


....

Let’s keep the discussion grounded in facts and correct terminology — otherwise, we’re just building castles on sand.

Amber G.
(And truth, as ever, prefers clarity over echo..)

No saarey, this is what you said in a previous post and implored me to read in full of "what". The cold test is the term used by Aadi in his YT. You can argue with him not me.

And later on you keep harping about "clarity, echo, truth". Please go argue with him not me, leave me out of your lecture series, tis boring for me and useless. You don't need to respond to anything I write. thank you.

[Amber G.]

Balaji - Zero interest in arguing with you — just dropping a few technical reality checks. No need to read if it bores or annoys you.

But for others here who aren’t allergic to science and facts: remember, a “cold test” is like a dry swim in the ocean — no nuclear yield, no magic, just physics. A good reminder before digesting some of the more sensational claims in that post.

Amber G. - Not here for debates, just facts — feel free to ignore if you prefer stories.

[RCase]

But my take is there is credible evidence that Pakistan (via the A.Q. Khan network and state procurement) obtained and manufactured the hard-to-get parts (including bearing preforms, specialist machine tools and spares) and developed local repair/fabrication capacity. That’s how centrifuges were kept operational for years — not magic, but supply networks + local engineering.

- So when people marvel “how do they keep the centrifuges running?” the answer is: a pragmatic combination of imported parts early on, replication and repair work later, and smart engineering practices (redundancy, vibration control, cascade isolation).

Pakistan Has Talent!
Awaiting the next manufacturing superpower!

[Amber G.]

Pakistan Has Talent!
Awaiting the next manufacturing superpower!

You're absolutely right, the irony isn't lost on us. If they ever make a reliably calibrated alpha ray counter, some one will be the first to notify the Nobel Committee.

But while we’re laughing, we should at least acknowledge one thing they did manage to indigenize: a way around nuclear sanctions. For a country that struggles to keep the lights on, maintaining a high-tech nuclear program under a permanent global embargo is less about 'talent' and more about relentless, black-market-grade engineering.

It’s true that Pakistan’s centrifuge program has faced chronic sanctions on specialized materials like high-precision maraging steel and magnetic bearings, but they’ve managed to sustain operations largely through indigenous production and component substitution.

The IAEA and U.S. diplomatic cables (see: Wikileaks Cable 06ISLAMABAD20323, and 08ISLAMABAD1989) noted that Pakistan’s A.Q. Khan Research Labs had developed local suppliers for critical parts after the 1990s embargoes.

Independent analyses (e.g., Albright & Hibbs, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 2013) confirm that their centrifuges are P-2 derivatives using improved local bearings and composite rotors, not reliant on direct Western imports.

In short — they kept them spinning by learning to make their own.

— Amber G. (Working with declassified data and isotope-ratio estimates — no clearance required)

[bala]

But for others here who aren’t allergic to science and facts: remember, a “cold test” is like a dry swim in the ocean — no nuclear yield, no magic, just physics. A good reminder before digesting some of the more sensational claims in that post.

Just A Q: did you watch the YT ? or you going on based on the transcript that i provided. No where Aadi claimed HEU was cold tested. You just made them up and started your lecture series on everything nuclear. Now you are claiming based on US reports that Pak of all nations managed to cobble together a weapon of nuclear grade. It stretches the imagination that they can ever do such a thing. The help provided by both US and China are like maya, no one knows what happened behind the curtain of duplicity by these two in collusion with one another just to piss of India. A screw turn here and there and voila Pak has cobbled up 6 weapons in a row, vow, really vow. All believable according to media rubbish and the US and Chinese reports, wonderbar! Yeah all facts from non-classified reports, just physics, no engineering required, no manufacturing, just black market buying of what US and Chinese parts, ooh so convenient. And why did India hit kirana hills in operation sindoor? no air marshal awadesh kumar bharti denied such a thing, tongue in cheek to the question.

[Amber G.]

A. Why did the engineering expertise gained in nuclear bomb making not spill over into Pakistan’s civilian sector?

B. To RCase’s point - just how good is Pakistan’s arsenal (i.e., to perform as designed)? These certainly aren’t mass produced items.

C. How is Pakistan retaining the technical skills needed? And equipment? Are the supplier networks still in place?

FWIW: Adding to Tanaji's respond to this post ..
My take:
A.Why no "Nuclear Spillover" to the Civilian Sector?
It was kept a military secret and a mission, not a market

Because bomb programs and civilian industry live in different worlds. The nuke effort was ultra-secret, military-controlled, and ring-fenced from the rest of the economy. Scientists there worked in closed labs with imported or one-off tools, not in factories making tractors or turbines. The skills stayed siloed, and corruption plus poor industrial policy meant almost zero tech spill-over.

B.How Good is Pakistan's Arsenal?
Pretty good, actually. Their designs are conservative—HEU and Pu implosion types tested in ’98—and meant to work, not impress. These aren’t “mass-produced,” but assembled in small batches under tight military QA. Reliability likely in the same league as early-generation Chinese or French weapons: not flashy, but credible enough for to taken seriously.

C.Retaining Skills, Equipment, and Networks?
They’ve kept a core cadre inside their Strategic Plans Division and labs like KRL and PINSTECH. Senior people train juniors; retirees consult quietly. Most equipment is now locally maintained or copied. The old supplier networks from the A.Q. Khan days aren’t what they were, but Pakistan built enough self-reliance to keep the wheels—and centrifuges—turning.

- some facts, some educated guessing, some humor, zero classified briefings.

[Amber G.]

But for others...remember, a “cold test” is like a "dry swim "in the ocean...

Just a Q...you going on based on the transcript that i provided. No where Aadi claimed HEU was cold tested. You just made them up and started your lecture

Balaji -Just to answer your Q: No, I did not make it up!..

Here is literally what you said :

.... recounts the entire history of Pak's attempt at nuclear bomb making ... By 1984 the Paks were conducting cold tests, one in Kirana hills which was bombed in Operation Sindhoor by IAF in 2025. National security archive docs of the US reveal a lot more information. .... The Chinese gave highly enriched uranium to the Paks in 70s-80s time period and the Paks attempted [b]cold testing on such material.

You are the one who used/described the silly term 'cold test'. (twice!) in that post in a context which made no sense then or now. I then (and continuing do it now) gave a technical/historical view, for a reality check.
Amber G. Science over storytelling — read if curious, scroll if allergic.

Added later - My last one on this - will answer serious push-back/Q - Will ignore trolling.

[bala]

You are the one who used/described the silly term 'cold test'. (twice!) in that post in a context which made no sense then or now. I then (and continuing do it now) gave a technical/historical view, for a reality check.

No. No that last sentence did not say HEU, it said material which is china material. Tis your job to review YT. That is exactly what Aadi said. We have no clue what the Paki were doing aimlessly, they used the same term in classified US reports too. Why don't you review the YT and give your own considered transcript. Your tone looks like a preaching sermon to everyone here which is not one bit appreciated. I think your conclusions are all wrong.

[SRajesh]

^^To all Jingos about : 'Pak has Talent'
Please bear with me while I recount an anecdote:
I have a fiend from KP province.
He once recounted how and why the shooting is now the preferred choice to settle scores in Tribal Warfare.
Buying a local make of AK47 apparently is so cheap that literally anyone with few Djinnah's to spare can buy one!!
And these are apparently made by locals with hardly any scholling let alone engineering degree!! And I am talking about both gun and the ammo!!
And apparently they are pretty good and does the job effectively and cheaply.
So the gist of the story is : Human ingenuity and a will to make it!!
I can believe when AmberGji says they have indegnised .
Pakis can be quite devious and ingenious when it comes to survival!!

[A_Gupta]

So plutonium bombs are more difficult than HEU bombs?

[Aditya_V]

Those guns were useless, they can kill an unarmed man, if they were any hood, Faujis will be dead, Fauji's rule cause they have the guns otherwise Awam would replaced them.