Understanding the US - Again

[Manish_P]

...
I don't see us-India stand off happening in our lifetime or even in our grandkids lifetime. the empire will quietly loosen its grip and try to heal itself from inside .

I would tend to agree but I feel a change in demographics in both countries during the next 50 years (kids/grandkids lifetime) might lead to some interesting possibilities... If we are still there, we shall see. Hope for the good, prepare for the bad.

[Vayutuvan]

[Vayutuvan]

As an aside, the funniest thing I read was about American evangelical groups (of the type that support Trump) wanting to send missions to Mexico to convert the Catholics there to Christianity.

Why is that funny?!!! Protestants want to convert Catholics to their denomination(s). LDS and Baptists do run huge evangelical organizations all over the world. Mexico is right across the border.

[williams]

Not going to change Maga crowd. Only thing that can change them is the economy. That too in a drastic way.

[chanakyaa]

Shashi Tharoor misunderstands the diaspora—we are not proxies for India in the US
India deserves a stronger voice on the global stage. But, expecting Indian Americans, increasingly under attack from both ends, to continue sacrificing and paying for it is not a sound strategy.
...

^ She has some identity issues. HAF while having an overall + role has largely been insufficient.
Haf and cohna both helped get Gavin newsome veto the khalistani bill . Credit when it's due .
I think we need many more organizations in the us across the political spectrum .
...
Besides haf and cohna I can't think of any other Sanatani organization of note in political spear. Iskon has played minor political roles from time to time but usually in local politics.
....

Agree with Gakakkad ji's assessment. She (and her organization, HAF) is currently treading a fine line between representing Hindu's interests in the US and aligning with political parties. She may be sympathetic towards India, but, professionally, she has nothing to do with India, and may prefer it stay that way forever (unless GOI sends few millions to HAF). By responding to Tharoor's comments, which come across as controversial, she and her organization took a free ride and made itself more relevant (in the US, in the mind of diaspora). In the recent times, many HAF meetings have ended with the unannounced appearances of Vivek Ramaswamy, who is seeking governor job. Whether she and organization truly believes in fighting for (a) Hindu causes (thus advocacy), (b) carry ulterior motive of influencing US based Hindus to a specific political party/ideology, and/or (c) leave room for a political/administrative career for herself, remains to be seen. Not saying it is good or bad, because political influence often works thru orgs like these, just that her comments should be seen in that light.

[KL Dubey]

Not going to change Maga crowd. Only thing that can change them is the economy. That too in a drastic way.

MAGA crowd (and the liberal crowd) may or may not change, I think its mostly irrelevant.

For the next federal legislative election (2026), it will be a mix of economic and "social" issues at local, state, and national level. The 50-odd "swing seats" in house and senate will decide the majority, and it will be the "undecided/flexible" voters that determine the results. These seats are spread out in many states, so local/state level issues are probably more important than "MAGA-versus-liberals" and are hard to predict.

For the next federal executive election (2028), its basically < 1 million "undecided/flexible voters" in 7 swing states that dictate the outcome, plus the turnout in these states. That's all. In a two-party system with electoral vote, the inevitable has occurred: the federal executive is almost completely determined by the "same" < 1 million people in the "same" 7 states every four years.

[KL Dubey]

Shashi Tharoor misunderstands the diaspora—we are not proxies for India in the US
India deserves a stronger voice on the global stage. But, expecting Indian Americans, increasingly under attack from both ends, to continue sacrificing and paying for it is not a sound strategy.
...

^ She has some identity issues. HAF while having an overall + role has largely been insufficient.
Haf and cohna both helped get Gavin newsome veto the khalistani bill . Credit when it's due .
I think we need many more organizations in the us across the political spectrum .
...
Besides haf and cohna I can't think of any other Sanatani organization of note in political spear. Iskon has played minor political roles from time to time but usually in local politics.
....

Agree with Gakakkad ji's assessment. She (and her organization, HAF) is currently treading a fine line between representing Hindu's interests in the US and aligning with political parties. She may be sympathetic towards India, but, professionally, she has nothing to do with India, and may prefer it stay that way forever (unless GOI sends few millions to HAF). By responding to Tharoor's comments, which come across as controversial, she and her organization took a free ride and made itself more relevant (in the US, in the mind of diaspora). In the recent times, many HAF meetings have ended with the unannounced appearances of Vivek Ramaswamy, who is seeking governor job. Whether she and organization truly believes in fighting for (a) Hindu causes (thus advocacy), (b) carry ulterior motive of influencing US based Hindus to a specific political party/ideology, and/or (c) leave room for a political/administrative career for herself, remains to be seen. Not saying it is good or bad, because political influence often works thru orgs like these, just that her comments should be seen in that light.

This is mostly futile. Hindu organizations in USA need to focus on religion, i.e. spreading the "eternally good news" and bringing people to dharma. "tamaso ma jyotirgamaya". Just sitting there and saying "oh, we don't convert anyone" is not going to cut it.

For politics, go to grassroot/local levels where there is a large enough concentration of Hindus. Seeding a large number of such "nuclei" across the country is the path forward, in which religion and politics go together.

Indian-American BS fellows like Ramalingam should drop their defensive attitude and tell people that prophets and books come and go, but everyone will eventually become a Sanatani.

[A_Gupta]

Regarding a rare earths agreement with Australia

Trump mentioned that the agreement with Australia “has been negotiated over a period of four or five months” and added, “In about a year from now, we’ll have so much critical mineral and rare earths that you won’t know what to do with them. They’ll be worth about $2.”

https://www.chosun.com/english/world-en ... VWKJQBBBE/

Going by this from August, it will be at least 2030 before the new supply comes on stream.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgm2z91mvlvo

[A_Gupta]

The US has no China strategy, no policy and no theory of success
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editor ... 2003845819

Harvard University professor of government Graham Allison, a doyen among international-relations academics, said that “in the game of supply chain poker, China holds the high cards” and Trump has come to realize that he does not. (The metaphor is cheeky, since Trump likes to bully others for not holding “the cards.”)

Cooper disagrees. “I don’t think the Chinese have all the cards,” he told me. “We have cards, we just haven’t been willing to play them.” For example, the US could cut Chinese banks out of dollar transactions in global financial markets, which is, in its context, as asymmetric as blocking exports of rare earths. (Most US banks don’t care about losing access to renminbi transactions, but Chinese banks “would fold,” Cooper said.)

One problem is that the White House has recently fired a lot of the China experts who have the deep technical knowledge to find and use such levers. One example is former US deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs David Feith, who was pushed out for political reasons — or “Loomered,” in the argot, a reference to far-right activist Laura Loomer’s habit of publicly targeting and harassing officials deemed ideologically impure — just as the confrontation with China heated up.

Another problem is that Trump’s remaining advisers are at one another’s throats over what the US even wants out of China. Ryan Fedasiuk, an adjunct assistant professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, describes three main camps: The economic nationalists love tariffs for their own sake. The hard-power realists care more about keeping China inferior to the US technologically and militarily. The transactional restrainers view tariffs and other measures merely as tools to extract concessions, such as a Chinese clamp-down on the chemicals used to make fentanyl. Meanwhile, Trump seems to be all over the map.

That is what it means to have no strategy. The Trump administration has not answered, or seemingly even asked, fundamental questions, small or large, specific or general: Does the US want to attract Chinese investment, or to decouple the two economies? Does it want to sell its best semiconductors and software, or to hog them?

More broadly, does the US want to keep China down, or share with it the burden of restoring order and peace in the world, from Ukraine to the Middle East? Is Taiwan (or the South China Sea, for that matter) a vital US interest to be defended, or a mere bargaining chip? Is China an adversary the US will have to fight and defeat one day, or a difficult but unavoidable partner?

“I just don’t think that the Trump folks believe you need a strategy to do things,” Cooper told me. Their narrative is that Trump is a “master negotiator, walks into the room, decides where he has leverage, uses it and walks out,” Cooper said.

The problem is that the Chinese have prepared for this showdown for a long time, and their rare earths are just the start. They believe that they are “running circles around the Trump team. They feel really confident,” Cooper added.

[A_Gupta]

Posted here solely because of the last quoted line:

Wake up, babe! Another young Republican operative just had his insanely racist text messages leaked.

But the latest guy in the barrel isn’t some random right-wing apparatchik. He’s Paul Ingrassia, Trump’s 30-year-old nominee to lead the Office Special Counsel, one of the federal government’s key internal watchdogs. In a Truth Social post from May, Trump, who has shared Ingrassia’s content dozens of times, called him a “highly respected attorney, writer, and constitutional scholar.”

He’s also quite the group-chatter. Politico reported yesterday afternoon on a set of text chains in which Ingrassia, speaking to other young GOP men, offered his opinion about Martin Luther King Jr.—the “1960s George Floyd” whose holiday “should be ended and tossed into the seventh circle of hell where it belongs”—while admitting that “I do have a Nazi streak in me from time to time.” Other comments about the merits and demerits of various population groups piled up from there:

“We need competent white men in positions of leadership . . .”

“The founding fathers were wrong that all men are created equal.”

“Blacks behave that way because it’s their natural state. . . . “

“All of Africa is a shithole, and will always be that way.”

“Never trust a chinaman or Indian.”

From:
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/the-golden ... demolition

[Rudradev]

I actually commend people like these young Republicans for their honesty. They aren't saying anything that the vast majority of white Americans don't already believe (but simply prefer not to express) about other ethnicities, including Indians.

[A_Gupta]

As long as Indians, NRIs and PIOs have no illusions about where they stand with these folks.
From the far left, PIOs in America are a part of the racist structure of oppression - they are “white-adjacent”.
From the far right, Indians are, well, intensely hated.

[A_Gupta]

The Korean newspaper quotes the Wall Street Journal which says that the MoUs the Japanese and Koreans have signed with Trump are unsustainable.

My reading is that the Japanese and Korean governments so far have exhibited the backbone of jellyfish. Total vassals of the US. As sovereign and independent as the rajahs and nawabs installed by the British Raj. And even their own criticism of this American imperialism is borrowed from America! Count me as totally unimpressed by these two countries. If China says “boo”, they will fold just as easily.

https://www.chosun.com/english/world-en ... VI5WH5YHM/

The editorial also noted that while the Trump administration’s announcement appears to be a “success,” the story changes when examining the memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Japan, where details have already been finalized.

The U.S.-Japan MOU specifies that direct investment funds in the U.S. will be invested in sectors “deemed to promote economic and national security interests,” such as metals, energy, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing. Additionally, the Trump administration will establish a “special purpose vehicle (SPV)” for each investment project, selected and controlled by the president or a manager designated by the president.

This intergovernmental investment is vastly different from the form of private corporate investment, such as Taiwanese semiconductor company TSMC’s decision to build a semiconductor factory in Arizona.

Under the MOU, Japan must invest 183 billion U.S. dollars annually until 2028, an amount equivalent to 4.4% of Japan’s GDP. Japan must pay the required funds within 45 days of each investment project proposed by the U.S., and failure to comply could result in higher tariffs.

In this intergovernmental investment deal, Japan holds a “limited partner” status. Until Japan recovers its initial investment of 550 billion U.S. dollars, profits will be equally split at 50% each, but after recovering the investment, the U.S. will take 90% of the total profits.

The editorial, however, diagnosed that the promised investment amounts are so massive that Japan must pay 4.4% annually, and South Korea must pay 6.5% of its GDP (based on 2024, 1.75 trillion U.S. dollars) annually for three years, adding, “Japanese and South Korean officials answer to voters and legislators. It’s hard to believe that Japan’s new Prime Minister, running a minority government, will write these checks to a foreign government on these terms.”

If this is enforced, as Commerce Secretary Lutnick cynically remarked on the 11th of last month, “Japan would have to ‘completely blow up its financial statements,’ but it would have to fulfill this promise through massive borrowing.”

The WSJ noted that Japan spends 1.8% of GDP on defense and South Korea 2.3%, and suggested that, rather than being forced to pour two to three times as much into Trump’s funds, both countries would be better off increasing their defense spending. The editorial asked, “Where are they going to come up with the money?”