Operation Sindoor - Analysis on Future Scenarios

[Rakesh]

As per request of Ramana-ji, this thread has been created to do a holistic study of Operation Sindoor using the recently released citations and information released on the targets that the Indian Armed Forces successfully engaged.

[ramana]

For starters please upload copies of the citations of the awards. Thanks for the cooperation.

[ramana]

A Gupta posted this in the other thread.

After quite some search, I found this PDF on egazette.gov.in.

https://egazette.gov.in/WriteReadData/2025/266654.pdf

[Rakesh]

Pakistan's Kutch diversion?
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/i ... 2025-10-27
27 Oct 2025

[A_Gupta]

When I read the citations for valor, some are quite specific about date and place. I'd guess that the ones that are not specific are Op Sindoor. Reading them, I don't think we have a good picture of what actually happened during those fateful days in May. One thing I do note is that as far as I read, none of the Op Sindoor citations are post-humous, so what we were told back in May is true, all the pilots made it home. But with only the very generic terms used in the citations, e.g., "presence of heavily networked Air Defence grid of adversaries, comprising of Air Defence ac and Surface to Air Guided Weapons (SAGWs) equipped with modern long range missiles", "a networked hostile threat environment in air and ground", etc., -- someone has to fill in the gaps at least for someone like me to analyze a future scenario.

To me, the key issue for a future battle is -- can Pakistan make up the delta - the gap - that resulted in their failures, or can India increase the delta and make this missions more assured of success? I'd file this under "simply not enough information".

[SRajesh]

Guptaji:
Pakistani’s problem are three fold:
1. Replacing damaged or newer better ones in the light of recent damage/conflict
2. If replaced integrating Chinese and Western, specifically US ones.
3. Trained Manpower
Replacing is big issue given that they are kangall state. Also takes time to bring to optimum levels. Even if they buy off the shelf(provided they can shell out money) needs time for optimisation and operationalise.
Then there is question of integrating them to the existing one and establishing a network centric one.
They need to make Chinese and US ones to talk to one another. And I think here Unkil will insist on US personell to man and integrate rather Chinese as they would be worried about Chinese stealing tech??
And I think this is where Trump keeps repeating claims Yada yada to not only downgrade our achievements but also stop us attempting anything further.
Sir Creek probably to deliberate attempt to gain time to build capabilities elsewhere

[SRajesh]

But this doesn’t mean paper over our gaps
We wait years for unobtanium
Always manage to loose the narrative and hand in advantage to outsiders
And still cling to the fetish of gora acknowledgment of our achievements

[Hriday]

https://x.com/TheLegateIN/status/198301 ... WiXZQ&s=19

Indian Armed Forces have adopted a revised operational concept for Op SINDOOR 2.0 to compress the post casus-belli interval observed during Op SINDOOR 1.0 / Balakot (~14 days) to a 24–48 hour decision-to-action window with an aim to execute Op SINDOOR 2.0 with a significantly reduced political/operational pause to deny adversary reaction time.

In short, the strikes in Pakistan next time will begin within two days instead of two weeks earlier, as the long time gap gave sufficent preparation time to the adversary.

I asked Grok if it is true, it replied yes. Link below. I am yet to search exactly where it is mentioned. If anyone knows, please post the link.
https://grok.com/share/c2hhcmQtMi1jb3B5 ... ed5675f047

[A_Gupta]

https://carnegieendowment.org/research/ ... or?lang=en

While a conflict establishes thresholds, it also lays bare existing capabilities. Pakistan got a good glimpse of India’s existing strengths and weaknesses. It will now race to even the scales by sourcing more advanced weapons from China, which already accounts for a bulk of its military imports. There have been reports that Pakistan is looking to procure forty J-35 stealth fighter jets, HQ-19 air defense systems, and KJ-500 airborne early warning and control aircraft. Pakistan is likely to share their assessments of Indian capabilities to China as well, a bigger threat for India. For India, the challenge is twofold. First, to maintain an edge where there is one; and second, to make up for deficiencies that came to the fore.

India must streamline the Defence Acquisition Procedure (DAP) to ensure that capability development is realized in a definitive time frame. The DAP 2020 is currently undergoing a comprehensive review with a stated aim to meet “operational requirements and modernisation” in a “timely manner.” From an operational perspective, networking and sensor fusion must be top priorities. The IAF operates a diverse fleet of aircraft and systems from various countries that need to communicate in real time for seamless operations. For instance, India was keen to integrate the Meteor BVR missile manufactured by MBDA with Tejas, India’s indigenous light combat aircraft. MBDA, however, stipulated that it could be done only if an Indian or European radar was used on the jet as integration would mean exchanging sensitive details. The project fell through after an Israeli radar was chosen instead for the aircraft in 2018.

Future conflicts will differ from those in the past as adversaries respond in their own way, warns Air Marshal Tiwari. Operation Sindoor has drawn a clear differential at the conventional level between India and Pakistan, but, as Indian Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi has noted, it would be unwise to assume it will put an end to cross border terrorism. The operation has established a much higher deterrence level, though it comes with uncertainty for how the next conflict will pan out.

Emergency Procurement to the Rescue

Emergency procurement (EP) emerged as a silver lining in this entire endeavor, along with enhanced financial powers at various levels in the military. The Indian Ministry of Defense (MoD) sanctioned the EP procedure in 2016 just after the Uri terror attack, while the established procurement process languished. EP powers were delegated to the service headquarters to address the “emergent operational needs for effectively responding to the operational situation in Eastern Ladakh/Northern Borders.”

As per EP provisions, the Indian armed forces can procure weapons systems, including entire systems, worth up to Rs 300 crore (approximately $36 million) on an urgent basis, meant to be delivered within one year of contract signing. Since 2016, six tranches of EPs have been sanctioned by the MoD to the armed forces—EP-2 was sanctioned after the 2019 Balakot airstrike, EP-3 during the standoff with China in 2020, and EP-4, approved in 2022, focused on China in what was termed to fill “critical capability voids.” EP-5 was sanctioned towards the end of 2024 and focused primarily on counter terrorism equipment and EP-6, sanctioned just days after all military action under Operation Sindoor ceased, focused on replenishing stocks up to Rs 40,000 crore (approximately $4.8 billion).

The armed forces procured systems that were stuck in the regular process for years, albeit in small volumes. For instance, a deal for Igla-S MANPADs selected in a larger deal from Russia was stuck for over a decade. The Army finally procured the Igla-S launchers and missiles first under EP-2 and then more Igla-S missiles under EP-4.

[A_Gupta]

Copilot and Gemini say: “ The idea of a 24-48 hour response window stems from Pakistani reactions during the May 2025 conflict. After India's strikes, Pakistani officials and media warned that Pakistan was expected to retaliate within 24 to 48 hours. This was framed as a defensive response under the UN Charter following what Pakistan described as an "unprovoked act of aggression". ” “ India's actual approach to retaliation is not bound by a specific, short timeline. Its actions are guided by a different strategy that prioritizes a decisive and targeted response when intelligence and circumstances permit. ”

[Amber G.]

Meanwhile: India tomorrow kicks off Exercise Trishul, a major tri-services drill along the Pakistan border. The 10-day exercise spans Rajasthan & Gujarat, focusing on high-intensity operations near Sir Creek, one of the region’s most sensitive zone

[Rakesh]

‘Can’t really win you wars’: What IAF chief said on drones, manned aircraft & Op Sindoor
https://theprint.in/defence/cant-really ... r/2776909/
04 Nov 2025

At defence conclave, Air Chief Marshal A.P. Singh says conflict needs all kinds of weapons, not just the long-range ones, as a paracetamol cannot cure all ailments.

[ramana]

‘Can’t really win you wars’: What IAF chief said on drones, manned aircraft & Op Sindoor
https://theprint.in/defence/cant-really ... r/2776909/
04 Nov 2025

At defence conclave, Air Chief Marshal A.P. Singh says conflict needs all kinds of weapons, not just the long-range ones, as a paracetamol cannot cure all ailments.

Print is notorious for giving pithy headlines that ignores the context. Couptaji's training

Need to look at the full text of his statement.

[ramana]

We need to be clear what he calls a drone and a UAV?
Yes a full spectrum of assets is needed which is what he is saying.
As far as drones in IAF is concerned mostly the gold braid ones are the prominent ones
What RAF personnel call scrambled eggs for all the gold braids they carry.
ACM Chaudhry was most relcutant to look at drones and UAVs even after they showed their utility in Ukraine war.
Its the IA that adopted drones and can be seen for the seven out of nine terrorist targets got hit by loitering munitions.
Now there is scramble to get UAVs and drones with reluctance.

[Amber G.]

Southern Command Validates Joint Amphibious Capability, Demonstrating Bharat’s Multi-Domain Readiness

Showcasing Tri-Service synergy under Exercise Trishul, formations of the Sudarshan Chakra Corps of Southern Command have embarked on a Joint Amphibious Exercise with the Indian Navy along India’s Western seaboard.

Integrated planning, mobilisation, embarkation and meticulous rehearsals, preceded the final phase of this Integrated Amphibious Task Force which has embarked to validate Multi-Domain Amphibious Assault Operations, encompassing coordinated Land, Sea & Air manoeuvres in a realistic operational environment.

The exercise aims to validate integrated mission planning, operational readiness and interoperability in addressing contemporary security challenges, while demonstrating India’s Amphibious Capabilities.

From shore to ship, and beyond the horizon, the mission underscores India’s resolve, Tri-Service integration, and readiness to secure national interests across multiple domains.

[Amber G.]

FYI: Starting a new thread.. may be merged later here..:
viewtopic.php?p=2664507#p2664507

[Hriday]

1. From NDTV, dated Nov 5, 2025
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/6-month ... an-9580788

Fresh intelligence inputs accessed by NDTV reveal an alarming escalation in Pakistan-backed terror activity targeting the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir.
..
Intelligence assessments further reveal that Pakistan's Border Action Teams (BATs) comprising former SSG soldiers and terrorists have been redeployed across Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK), signaling potential cross-border attacks on Indian positions. This marks one of the most concerted post-Operation Sindoor escalations

2.
https://x.com/RajaMuneeb/status/1987799 ... 402Jw&s=19

A whopping 2900 kg of explosive making materials along with other arms and ammunition recovered as a major Inter-state terror module linked with terrorist organisations Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Ansar Ghazwat-ul-Hind (AGuH) has been busted by Jammu and Kashmir police. Major breakthrough.

2. From Op India,
https://www.opindia.com/2025/11/islamic ... -mohammad/

Pakistan’s shadow and encrypted channels
Investigators have traced the origins of this network to Pakistan, with operational instructions being relayed through handlers in Kashmir.

The above stated involvement of Pakistan is enough to start the next phase of Operation Sindoor, isn't it?

I would say that this strong revival of terror push so soon is due to India's bare minimum retaliatory posture during operation Sindoor. That too with slow and staged escalation steps. Despite Modi's assurances that perpetrators will be punished, India restrained from that by punishing only terror centres and disabling of airbases. Punishment to perpetrators means direct heavy loss to Pakistan armed forces personnel and assets.
Pakistan seems confident that it can request a ceasefire successfully in the next phase at a time it chooses.

Will India show the same restraint of slow staged escalatory steps in next phase of Operation Sindoor?

Pakistan had a nuclear redline of heavy destruction of Navy for example. So how many ships and submarines can India destroy below that threshold?

[vinod]

In the last six months, Pakistan has been rearmed by China and US. They are waiting for round 2 of Op Sindoor.
Earlier economist was lamenting India has been stable and calm. So, I guess, this is basically to push india to do something and escalate in different ways.

So, I believe, right now, India has other means to respond to this attack. Time has now to break up Pakistan. No holding back now.

When things get bad, I expect the Pak forces to attack India in a blatant way. So, we can wait until then.

[ashthor]

Operation Sindoor - Shock & Awe 2.0

[Deans]

There are some factors which will influence the timing of Op Sindhoor 2.0

1. Implementation of reducing the flow in Indus water. I am personally disappointed by the pace. This is our biggest leverage over Pak.
This will not have an impact till 2027.

2. Elections 2029. Will Pak wait in anticipation of INDIA alliance winning ? (which may be a bloodless victory for Pak) ? Will we do Op Sindhoor
2.0 to secure 2029 ? I think Pak will tone down terror in the run up to the election.

3. If we can manage a trade deal with the EU and US and both countries are facing a recession, or near recession, they will have an incentive to
reduce tensions. No one will want a war that's destabilizing for the world economy.

4. If the Dems win big in the Mid terms, the US govt will effectively be non functioning. Trump will be investigated for everything. I'm not sure who
that benefits. Before that, the SCOTUS judgement on US tariffs.

5. Pak has to handle its Afghan, TTP and Baluchistan problem. If that winds down, the will turn East.

[gakakkad]

There is speculation porkies got new toys last few months . I remain skeptical they got anything game changing . We give them too much credit but they are the ones getting whacked from all directions and losing a brigade worth of soldiers (officially) every year .

What is it that they could have gotten in last 6 months that could make iota of a difference.

I think after sead /dead next target should be kernails and jernails and denooking .

India should cut a deal with a core commandoo + Im the dim once enough of their assets have been destroyed.

[A_Gupta]

Munir in April was inaugurating a whole campaign of terrorism against India, of which Pahalgam was merely the opening round. The first round paid off hugely for Munir - he got to be Field Marshal and he got the 27th Amendment. Why should he call off the campaign? Because of damage to Pakistan? What does he care of that? Like 75% of Pakistanis, he identifies as Muslim first, Pakistani second; he heads an institution whose mission is jihad; he is carrying out his sacred duties, and see, Allah is rewarding him personally.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/11/ ... and-courts

The revision amends Article 243 to create a new post of chief of defence forces (CDF), to be held by the army chief. This essentially gives the army chief authority also over the air force and the navy. If the amendment is passed, the post of chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC) would be abolished later this month.

The CJCSC is currently held by four-star General Sahir Shamshad, who is due to retire on November 27.

Since independence in 1947, Pakistan’s military, especially the army, has been the most powerful institution in national life. Four coups and decades of direct and indirect military rule have entrenched that influence, and the army chief has long been the country’s most powerful figure.

Its current holder, Munir, became army chief in November 2022 and was promoted to five-star rank on May 20, just 10 days after the country ended its four-day conflict with India.

The 27th Amendment would also grant five-star officers lifetime immunity while allowing them to “retain rank, privileges and remain in uniform for life”.

Munir is only the second Pakistani military officer, after Field Marshal Ayub Khan in the 1960s, to have received the five-star designation. None of the other military branches, such as the air force or navy, has had a five-star official.

The proposed amendment also creates the post of commander of the National Strategic Command (NSC), responsible, among other things, for the country’s nuclear command. The head of the NSC would be appointed only from the army in consultation with the army chief/CDF.

The legend is that the leader of the Islamic conquest of Kabul had his head cut off during the battle, but was so excited about killing kafirs, he kept fighting, headless, till Kabul had fallen. How can Munir be seen to be any less?

[Deans]

This is speculative - my view on a possible Op Sindhoor 2.0

We cannot overtly invade Pak or start large scale attacks - the world does not have the appetite for it. A conventional war hurts our economy
and perversely, if we look like winning big, the chance of a nuclear exchange increases.

My view is have a continuous low intensity war on the LOC and attacks by `unknown men' inside Pak.
10% of J&Ks population is within artillery range of Pak, compared to 50% of Azad Kashmir province's. We can shell Muzaffarabad, they cannot
hit Srinagar. We can justify it by saying `Pak fired first', the LOC is always unstable, disputed border etc.
We would need to beef up our presence on the LOC - move two of our artillery divisions there to have a 3:1 superiority in heavy artillery
along the LOC.

The Baluchistan and TTP/ Taliban actions against Pak have to increase, with no trace to us.

It should be a slow burn for Pak. A cost (in money, civilians, army) that they cannot afford but where it is kept below the threshold of Western
interference.

IWT work has to take place on a war footing. Any disruption to the work should mean a disproportionally heavier attack on Pak infrastructure
(their 750 kV substations are conveniently within artillery range).

At the same time, act against the 5th column in India. A long as we have a live LOC, judges will be reluctant to give bail in `urgent hearings'
and the human rights/ Soros crowd will be quiet. Publicise the show trials of terrorists who were planning biological terror against India, civilians killed in Pak firing and battle casualties. We have to learn how to fight informational war too.

[A_Gupta]

One random thought here - I think all of us here are middle-class types, some approximation to the rational actor postulated in economics; necessarily so because otherwise we wouldn't be here. But. perhaps the rules of the game as seen by the very rich, the very poor, the jihadis, etc., are very different from we think the rules are.

We all thought that showing Pakistan how readily their air defenses could be decapitated would give them pause. Well, it seems that it hasn't. We think they are idiots or irrational for claiming to have won in May. But it probably means we don't understand the rules of the game that they are playing. What they are doing makes great sense to them; we really don't understand how it can make sense.

When we figure out what constitutes defeat to them, and deliver that defeat, of course, within our rules of our game, then we can expect this to stop, not before then.

[Deans]

One random thought here - I think all of us here are middle-class types, some approximation to the rational actor postulated in economics; necessarily so because otherwise we wouldn't be here. But. perhaps the rules of the game as seen by the very rich, the very poor, the jihadis, etc., are very different from we think the rules are.

We all thought that showing Pakistan how readily their air defenses could be decapitated would give them pause. Well, it seems that it hasn't. We think they are idiots or irrational for claiming to have won in May. But it probably means we don't understand the rules of the game that they are playing. What they are doing makes great sense to them; we really don't understand how it can make sense.

Great point. A basic tenet of International relations is assuming the other side is rational and acts in its self interest.
Even North Korea is rational. In my lifetime, I can only think of Saddam in Iraq being irrational in not vacating Kuwait in 1991.

My view was that Munir got what he wanted in Op Sindhoor. Field Marshal and de-facto ruler of the country without being accountable for
anything. I thought he'd quit while he was ahead. This was the context of my previous post, where I suggested a slow burn, where the cost
for the Pak army, economy and Munir's credibility increases slowly and he then seeks an off ramp - Gen Bajwa did that and we had a ceasefire
on the LOC.

[uddu]

Southern Command Troops showcase India’s military might through Exercises Maru Jwala in Jaisalmer

Rajasthan: As part of the "Maha Gajraj" exercise of the South Western Air Command of the Indian Air Force, exercises were conducted by landing fighter planes on the airstrip built on Bharatmala Highway on the border of Barmer-Jalore. Devendra Pandey, Wing Commander, Indian Air Force says, "This exercise is a part of the Maha Gajraj exercise of the South Western Air Command of the Indian Air Force. We have activated the Emergency landing field here. Transport and fighter planes have landed here. Three fighter planes have practised landing here. Jaguars, Sukhoi 30 and C-295 have landed here... This can be used for landing us in case of an emergency, when the aircraft cannot land at its base.

[uddu]

Tri Service Exercise 2025 - Trishul

Synchronised strength across land, air & sea. #TriServiceExercise2025 showcases the true essence of jointness and operational synergy — where every arm of the #IndianArmedForces moves as one cohesive force.

[Lisa]

When we figure out what constitutes defeat to them, and deliver that defeat, of course, within our rules of our game, then we can expect this to stop, not before then.

Gaza should be a point of reflection. Until all are dead, there is no defeat. Until one can still say, I am alive, he remains undefeated. He may be saying this from the ruins of his habitat and alone whilst his entire family is dead, but he will shout out, I am undefeated!

[A_Gupta]

Yes, I was hoping that personal physical annihilation is not their sole criteria for defeat.