MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

[Rakesh]

Heh. The su57 lobby isn't that weak after all.

Some additional info ---> viewtopic.php?p=2663227#p2663227

[Manish_P]

AM A.P. Singh should go to that defence ministry department with a few Garuds and beat every one there with steel TMT bars. With that A.P. Singh's career will be over...but then so will be this MRCA Saga also!

Not really. Only the AMs career will be over. And this thread

And then promptly a new thread will need to be created -
"MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode IV"

[Rakesh]

India’s defence acquisition framework is designed to prevent wrongdoing, not deliver outcomes
https://theprint.in/opinion/indias-defe ... s/2774324/
31 Oct 2025

Vivek Rae committee highlighted the deficiencies that persist even today: Fragmented authority, weak accountability, and the absence of dedicated acquisition cadres.

[Rakesh]

https://x.com/NewsIADN/status/1985732457472360485 ----> Manned aircrafts (fighters) are not going away & will stay for the foreseeable future: IAF Chief

======================================

Translation of the above:-

1) I need my 114 Rafales at all cost. We need mission ready aircraft. Rafale is a game-changer.

2) When it comes time to order desi maal, unmanned aircraft (or better variants) are a more attractive option.

IAF Chief Wants LCA Tejas Mk1A Orders Moved to Mk2
https://bharatshakti.in/iaf-chief-wants ... ed-to-mk2/
04 Oct 2025

Get ready for when it comes time to sign the order for the Tejas Mk2, the Air Chief (of that day) will say that this Mk2 order should actually go towards the AMCA. Same story will be done with AMCA as well. Basically, rinse & repeat this cycle for eternity.

Kuch Bhi Karo, Magar Import Hamesha #1

[bala]

What happened to "We will fight with what we have" concept?

[Rakesh]

Russian team submits report, says HAL already possess 50% capacity to produce Su-57 stealth fighters at home
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/ne ... 240773.ece
04 Nov 2025

HAL is now putting together its own assessment outlining the investment required in infra, advanced technologies, R&D, human resources, and supply chain development to enable full-scale production of the Su-57E, say sources

[Manish_P]

Russian team submits report, says HAL already possess 50% capacity to produce Su-57 stealth fighters at home
...

The good - we can do 50% of the Su 57 in house
The bad - we can do 50% of the Su 57 in house
The ugly - the AMCA will probably be able to do more than 50% of what the Su 57 can.

[V_Raman]

Honestly, AMCA is a paper plane at this point. We have not even delivered Mk1A and then we have Mk2. I dont know if IAF has the time to wait for AMCA which seems like unobtainium at this point even with funding.

[Rakesh]

1) Air HQ definitely wants more Rafales, especially after its performance during Op Sindoor. But any large scale purchase (i.e. 114) of the Rafale is risky politically, due to the scandal drummed up by the opposition in the first Rafale deal of 36 aircraft. And without HAL's involvement (reportedly the deal might go to a private firm for assembly) will give a lot of political capital to the opposition. Remember the charge leveled by the opposition - NaMo "stole" jobs from HAL and gave it to Anil Ambani

2) Su-57 to be assembled at HAL will drown out that opposition, if the order book is large enough. Keep HAL busy with Su-57 assembly and the Super Sukhoi upgrade. But a large order of the Su-57 will kill the Rafale deal of 114 aircraft, which is what Air HQ wants. Highly unlikely that the GOI will go in for 114 Rafales + a triple digit order (or even a number close to 100) of Su-57s.

The GOI has a tough choice to make.

[Cain Marko]

1) Air HQ definitely wants more Rafales, especially after its performance during Op Sindoor. But any large scale purchase (i.e. 114) of the Rafale is risky politically, due to the scandal drummed up by the opposition in the first Rafale deal of 36 aircraft. And without HAL's involvement (reportedly the deal might go to a private firm for assembly) will give a lot of political capital to the opposition. Remember the charge leveled by the opposition - NaMo "stole" jobs from HAL and gave it to Anil Ambani

2) Su-57 to be assembled at HAL will drown out that opposition, if the order book is large enough. Keep HAL busy with Su-57 assembly and the Super Sukhoi upgrade. But a large order of the Su-57 will kill the Rafale deal of 114 aircraft, which is what Air HQ wants. Highly unlikely that the GOI will go in for 114 Rafales + a triple digit order (or even a number close to 100) of Su-57s.

The GOI has a tough choice to make.

It will do what it's hoary and distinguished predecessors did, buy 60 each with options for more and local servicing. Or actually buy more su57 for local assembly and maybe 36 more take in fly away condition with local maintenance options.

Everyone is happy that way:
Import lobby
IAF
France
Russia
MoD
MEA

Sabka sath sabka Vikas. The most teleologically sound decision.

[ashthor]

It will do what it's hoary and distinguished predecessors did, buy 60 each with options for more and local servicing. Or actually buy more su57 for local assembly and maybe 36 more take in fly away condition with local maintenance options.

Everyone is happy that way:
Import lobby
IAF
France
Russia
MOD
MEA

Sabka Sath, Sabka Vikas. The most teleologically sound decision.

A few 35's from Unkil for the tariff reduction a few Tornado from Germany to ask them to move some factories here....all happy.
Event the spectator at aero india can enjoy UN aircraft display.

[S_Madhukar]

IAF is just 1 step away from Saudi AF diversification strategy… they diversify their pilots too by employing Bakis!
Anyway Sukhoi, Rafale are all for branding. Real work will be done by end of line Mirages, Mig29 and Jags. Tejas will be 12th man for carrying drinks only

[Mollick.R]

A few 35's from Unkil for the tariff reduction a few Tornado from Germany to ask them to move some factories here....all happy.
Event the spectator at aero india can enjoy UN aircraft display.

This also ensures Visa stamps on passport all such countries for IAF personnel ..........
Trainings/ Purchasing spares/ chai biscuit meetings ityadi ityadi

[Manish_P]

A few 35's from Unkil for the tariff reduction a few Tornado from Germany to ask them to move some factories here....all happy.
Event the spectator at aero india can enjoy UN aircraft display.

Tornado? You mean the Typhoon right

If we have to keep the Germans happy i rather we go with their submarines

A pity they are not a turbofan engine power like the US, the british or the french

[Rakesh]

1) The main sticking point with the Rafale is the access to the source codes or mission computer or whatever name it goes by. Dassault and MBDA will not relent on that, because that will stop the money flow into their coffers. Indian munitions (Rudram, Astra Mk2, SFDR, BrahMos-NG etc) will obviously be cheaper than their French counterparts (Hammer, Meteor, Mica, SCALP, etc). But the MoD will not permit a large deal of 114 aircraft to be sanctioned without some level of source code access. At $25+ billion, there has to be some return on value beyond just mere assembly in India. Both sides will have to come to a middle ground somewhere i.e. perhaps permit source code access, but only for Indian users - i.e. IAF and IN - and not international users (Greece is interested in Astra Mk2 for their Rafale fleet) OR allow access for a select set of Indian weaponry OR some other solution.

2) Here is where the Su-57 becomes much more attractive, as going by the Su-30MKI which is the platform of choice to test and validate Indian weaponry. But the Russians are also playing hardball. Reportedly they do not want to accede to India's request to swap out the Russian AESA (N036 Byelka) with the DARE's Uttam Mk2 AESA. To comply with such a request would indicate to other prospective international customers that the Byelka is not up to standards and is subpar. But at this stage, if the Su-57 has to fly in IAF colours...then it must come with Indian sensors and weaponry. That IMVHO is non-negotiable and would be a better investment versus the Rafale, if the Russians agree. The AL-51 (izdeliye 30) is also a must-have aboard any Su-57 for India. The Russians could be likely be more malleable than the French, but the details matter.

So will have to wait and see how this is going play out. But the main takeaway is that India must be able to integrate her home-grown weaponry aboard - via source code access OR an Indian radar - with whatever aircraft (Rafale or Su-57) is chosen as the MRFA.

[Rakesh]

https://x.com/ValkStrategy/status/1986143605262524428 ---> A three-star USAF force strategist just threw the whole fifth-generation nonsense under the bus in a video brief to International Fighter Conference #IFC25 in Rome. “That nomenclature doesn’t really help us any more,” he said, arguing that advanced weapons and EW on an F-15EX give it “capabilities more akin to 5 gen”

https://x.com/ValkStrategy/status/1986144630207901975 ---> Which of course is exactly the point that Saab and Dassault and Eurofighter have been making for years (as I have too). That stealth is great but in the end it’s a way to carry out the mission and it’s difficult and expensive.

https://x.com/ValkStrategy/status/1986146459503185980 ---> At the same time, the officer said that the USAF was raising its F-15EX program of record goal to 130 aircraft “with room for more” and although the service had cut its FY26 F-35 order “we are eager to buy more Block 4 upgrades as soon as they are available.”

[Rakesh]

^^^

...

https://x.com/joe_sameer/status/1986441013288988683 ---> @IAF_MCC has similar views as the USAF's focus on advanced capabilities on 4.5 Gen to take on the scaling PLAAF's 5th Gen combat fleet, eyeing Rafale Block 4 jets for future squadrons which will augment any future 5th Gen induction.

[Rakesh]

Russian team submits report, says HAL already possess 50% capacity to produce Su-57 stealth fighters at home
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/ne ... 240773.ece
04 Nov 2025

Can HAL make Russian fifth-generation fighter Sukhoi Su-57 in India? Here's what experts observed
https://www.theweek.in/news/defence/202 ... erved.html
06 Nov 2025

[drnayar]

Russian team submits report, says HAL already possess 50% capacity to produce Su-57 stealth fighters at home
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/ne ... 240773.ece
04 Nov 2025

Can HAL make Russian fifth-generation fighter Sukhoi Su-57 in India? Here's what experts observed
https://www.theweek.in/news/defence/202 ... erved.html
06 Nov 2025

rich, esp coming from the Russians when they refused to share the tech when India was a "partner" country in the Su-57's development.. it was all money from India's side and no "sharing tech".

make no mistake, I like Russia but they have changed in the way they shared tech.

also IAF's previous chiefs are on record saying the tech of Russian planes are a decade behind, so not sure what changed now.

off note the frontal RCS of Rafale is same as less than the Su-57..so much for stealth.

[Khalsa]

Buy the Su-57 X 2 Squadrons and have them stand toe to toe with the J35 and get this tamasha over it..
Buy all the Rafale outright from the French.

Start Building Tejas Mk 2
Start Building AMCA Prototypes now.
Start working on the engine strategy. What are we doing ? GE, our Own, Joint with Safran.

[Kartik]

1) Air HQ definitely wants more Rafales, especially after its performance during Op Sindoor. But any large scale purchase (i.e. 114) of the Rafale is risky politically, due to the scandal drummed up by the opposition in the first Rafale deal of 36 aircraft. And without HAL's involvement (reportedly the deal might go to a private firm for assembly) will give a lot of political capital to the opposition. Remember the charge leveled by the opposition - NaMo "stole" jobs from HAL and gave it to Anil Ambani

2) Su-57 to be assembled at HAL will drown out that opposition, if the order book is large enough. Keep HAL busy with Su-57 assembly and the Super Sukhoi upgrade. But a large order of the Su-57 will kill the Rafale deal of 114 aircraft, which is what Air HQ wants. Highly unlikely that the GOI will go in for 114 Rafales + a triple digit order (or even a number close to 100) of Su-57s.

The GOI has a tough choice to make.

RM Rajnath Singh's interview to News18 made it clear that the IAF, MoD and GoI are very happy with the performance of the Rafale during Op Sindoor. He said it very clearly that the Rafale performed very well and that it's a very capable fighter, but refused to be drawn into confirmation of an order for more Rafales.

As I see it, Dassault has a historic opportunity to set up a foreign assembly line for the Rafale if they don't mess it up with measly indigenisation and ToT offers. The political climate is the ripest it has been for a large Rafale order, after Op Sindoor. The opposition tried the Rafale scam nonsense earlier too and it fell flat with no worthwhile outcome for them. I don't think the public would support HAL or that there is great sympathy for HAL, given the IAF and MoD have been openly talking about involving the private sector in a fighter production line as the OEM, rather than just Tier 1 and 2 suppliers. Plus HAL has 180 Tejas Mk1A orders to fulfil which it is so far making a real meal out of. In addition to that will be the 120 Tejas Mk2 orders.

But HAL on their part will definitely be interested in retaining a 5th gen production line given the mood of the IAF leadership and perhaps even some at the MoD to involve the private sector as a second fighter OEM in India. Su-57E is their best shot at it, possibly much better than their chance at getting the AMCA line, despite all the infra and experience they already have.

HAL may even try to convince the MoD this way- let HAL build the Su-57E at Nashik and it'll give some bit of a breather to the AMCA program, so that even if there are delays (and there very likely will be), it won't impact the IAF badly.

[Kakkaji]

^^
Good analysis khalsaji!

[Kartik]

1) The main sticking point with the Rafale is the access to the source codes or mission computer or whatever name it goes by. Dassault and MBDA will not relent on that, because that will stop the money flow into their coffers. Indian munitions (Rudram, Astra Mk2, SFDR, BrahMos-NG etc) will obviously be cheaper than their French counterparts (Hammer, Meteor, Mica, SCALP, etc). But the MoD will not permit a large deal of 114 aircraft to be sanctioned without some level of source code access. At $25+ billion, there has to be some return on value beyond just mere assembly in India. Both sides will have to come to a middle ground somewhere i.e. perhaps permit source code access, but only for Indian users - i.e. IAF and IN - and not international users (Greece is interested in Astra Mk2 for their Rafale fleet) OR allow access for a select set of Indian weaponry OR some other solution.

2) Here is where the Su-57 becomes much more attractive, as going by the Su-30MKI which is the platform of choice to test and validate Indian weaponry. But the Russians are also playing hardball. Reportedly they do not want to accede to India's request to swap out the Russian AESA (N036 Byelka) with the DARE's Uttam Mk2 AESA. To comply with such a request would indicate to other prospective international customers that the Byelka is not up to standards and is subpar. But at this stage, if the Su-57 has to fly in IAF colours...then it must come with Indian sensors and weaponry. That IMVHO is non-negotiable and would be a better investment versus the Rafale, if the Russians agree. The AL-51 (izdeliye 30) is also a must-have aboard any Su-57 for India. The Russians could be likely be more malleable than the French, but the details matter.

So will have to wait and see how this is going play out. But the main takeaway is that India must be able to integrate her home-grown weaponry aboard - via source code access OR an Indian radar - with whatever aircraft (Rafale or Su-57) is chosen as the MRFA.

Dassault will have to give access to threat libraries and at least to the extent that India can integrate weapons independently. That'll require significant access and transfer of data without which India can't do wind tunnel tests, CFD tests, software integration, etc for the various weapons being developed. Dassault may draw the line somewhere- for e.g. not allow structural mods or strengthening of the type that the Su-30MKI underwent to carry the Brahmos ALCM, without letting Dassault do that.

One thing that is happening now is that Dassault is setting up an engineering center at it's existing Dassault facilities in Pune, this time for the Rafale. So it's possible that they're setting the ground for allowing engineering and software changes to be made in India, but by Dassault engineers at a Dassault facility. That way they retain the IP, while IAF can get mods, software changes, updates, etc. made at a more reasonable cost given the labor costs in India will be a fraction of those in France. Plus certification will remain in the hands of Dassault as the OEM, possibly in conjunction with CEMILAC.

Regarding the Su-57, the biggest draw would be a Su-57MKI variant, with Indian avionics, radar, SDR, SATCOM, HMDS, etc. That should be a non-negotiable aspect of negotiations. Without it, there is no point in a large buy of the Su-57E and it'll only draw resources away from other types. IAF should be able to devise it's own MLU for the Su-57MKI with a high degree of commonality with AMCA when that is being done. Same with the AL-51 engines. There should under no circumstances be a Su-57E with AL-41 engines given the IAF will be using them for 4 decades at the very least. Investing in building AL-41 at HAL Koraput to then switch to AL-51 will only add unnecessary cost and complexity to the deal.

[maitya]

... The AL-51 (izdeliye 30) is also a must-have aboard any Su-57 for India. The Russians could be likely be more malleable than the French, but the details matter.
...

...
Same with the AL-51 engines. There should under no circumstances be a Su-57E with AL-41 engines given the IAF will be using them for 4 decades at the very least. Investing in building AL-41 at HAL Koraput to then switch to AL-51 will only add unnecessary cost and complexity to the deal.

As I've said before, there's less than 0 chance of Russia sharing worthwhile IPs from their Izdeliya-30 program - and since it's not in production yet, the initial Su-57 delivery tranches, will inevitably be with AL-41F1.
(Betw there's nothing called AL-41, that program Izdeliya-20 was cancelled long back)

The biggest mistake would be to consider any AL-41F1 Lic MFg deal, in the lines of AL-31FP mfg etc, as a quid-pro-quo for Su-57 procurement.
Instead, if Izdeliya-30 tech (mostly 5th Gen TF tech) is not going to be shared, better is to get a full Warranty-voiding clause (wrt any part/system/subsystem getting replaced by indigenous alternatives) waivers for the Lic Mfg deal of AL-31FPs.

AL-41F1s can continue to be fully-imported for the handful of Su-57 platforms being procured ...

[Kartik]

Maitya sir, what do you think of the offer of 117S engines for the Su-30MKI upgrade program?

[maitya]

Maitya sir, what do you think of the offer of 117S engines for the Su-30MKI upgrade program?

Pls refer to one of my earlier posts, on this aspect!!

Aanyway, my understanding wrt various contemporary Russian TF technology is: AL-31FP < AL-41F-1S (Izdeliye 117S) < AL-41F-1 (izdeliye 117) < AL-51 (Izdeliya 30).
Now AL-41F-1 itself is an evolutionary kind of version of AL-31F series and 117S, in turn, is its export version - the overall TF architecture of AL-41F-1 is same as that of AL-31.
Now, except for the IPR-violation constraints (in our Lic Mfg deal from late 90s), there's nothing in AL-31FP (except may be the 3D vectoring system) that'll be of any indigenous D&D value-add, wrt any further IPR sharing.

So, if we have the liberty to "tech upgrade" AL-31FP, without any threat of warranty voiding etc (which our user community will never agree to anyway), a similar or better version of AL-41F can be indigenously designed and developed.
Which essentially means, there's 0 value-add wrt TF D&D tech capability enhancement, with any type of Lic MFg deal of AL-41F-1 or 117S.

But, these aspects are well known to the Russians as well - so there's no way they will agree to any such agreement.

However if were to induct Su-57s anyway, so having a Lic Mfg setup of its TF is way better than having to do with fully-imported TFs - so from that PoV, another LiC Mfg deal, maybe slightly better than what is currently there for AL-31FPs, is welcome!!
Sure, it will not add anything to indigenous TF D&D capability, but some aspects of mass-mfg of critical TF systems/components etc would accrue.
(eg. why do we have to fully import the turbine discs for AL-31FP Lic Mfg?)

So there's no reason for us not to ask for a Lic Mfg deal for AL-41F-1 itself, instead of the slightly "inferior" 117S on offer.
And, better still, if we are able to haggle strongly, why not try for a no warranty-voiding-Lic-Mfg deal for the AL-31FP, alongwith some sort of Lic Mfg deal for the 117S (as a quid pro quo for not asking Lic Mfg deal for AL-41F-1s).

Very similar to the F414 ToAsT deal being negotiated currently - so net postive, but by not very much.

The big daddy (wrt TF tech IPR sharing) ofcourse is Izdeliya-30.

[Cain Marko]

Maitya sir, what do you think of the offer of 117S engines for the Su-30MKI upgrade program?

Pls refer to one of my earlier posts, on this aspect!!

Aanyway, my understanding wrt various contemporary Russian TF technology is: AL-31FP < AL-41F-1S (Izdeliye 117S) < AL-41F-1 (izdeliye 117) < AL-51 (Izdeliya 30).
Now AL-41F-1 itself is an evolutionary kind of version of AL-31F series and 117S, in turn, is its export version - the overall TF architecture of AL-41F-1 is same as that of AL-31.
Now, except for the IPR-violation constraints (in our Lic Mfg deal from late 90s), there's nothing in AL-31FP (except may be the 3D vectoring system) that'll be of any indigenous D&D value-add, wrt any further IPR sharing.

So, if we have the liberty to "tech upgrade" AL-31FP, without any threat of warranty voiding etc (which our user community will never agree to anyway), a similar or better version of AL-41F can be indigenously designed and developed.
Which essentially means, there's 0 value-add wrt TF D&D tech capability enhancement, with any type of Lic MFg deal of AL-41F-1 or 117S.

But, these aspects are well known to the Russians as well - so there's no way they will agree to any such agreement.

However if were to induct Su-57s anyway, so having a Lic Mfg setup of its TF is way better than having to do with fully-imported TFs - so from that PoV, another LiC Mfg deal, maybe slightly better than what is currently there for AL-31FPs, is welcome!!
Sure, it will not add anything to indigenous TF D&D capability, but some aspects of mass-mfg of critical TF systems/components etc would accrue.
(eg. why do we have to fully import the turbine discs for AL-31FP Lic Mfg?)

So there's no reason for us not to ask for a Lic Mfg deal for AL-41F-1 itself, instead of the slightly "inferior" 117S on offer.
And, better still, if we are able to haggle strongly, why not try for a no warranty-voiding-Lic-Mfg deal for the AL-31FP, alongwith some sort of Lic Mfg deal for the 117S (as a quid pro quo for not asking Lic Mfg deal for AL-41F-1s).

Very similar to the F414 ToAsT deal being negotiated currently - so net postive, but by not very much.

The big daddy (wrt TF tech IPR sharing) ofcourse is Izdeliya-30.

One would think that license manufacturing anything let's than the izd 30 (al 51) should be a non starter for India?

[KSingh]

When they lie and tell you Russia has always offered parity and co-development to India don’t say you couldn’t see this was a lie

https://x.com/georgen28581/status/19874 ... 06750?s=46
^ this is a Russian inside the SU57 engineering team


I mean the facts have been staring at India for decades, no one remembers the T90 TOT controversy? And what parts of the SU30 have exactly found their way to LCA MK1? MK2? AMCA? Nor a single nut or bolt from what we can see

So SU57MKI will be just another govt jobs program for HAL, 10s of billions for what? Fewer AMCA?

Let’s not kid ourselves either that this would be a quick deal, there are no quick defence deals in India. Everything takes 5 years at least to get a contract then 3-4 for deliveries and that is AFTER they have given AONs and RFIs, none of that exists for the SU57 today.

This will be another mind boggling situation as with the IN’s SSKs, L&T say they’ll deliver all 6 P76 within 10 years of contract, MDL say the first P75I will be delivered within 10 years. All this effort, all the talks, all the money to save a few months/years in the end but with a platform that is almost literally wired to a foreign land