Elections Modi 3.0

[chetak]

VI@WA

*A Quiet Storm in India: How SIR, CAA and the New IFA 2025 Are Reshaping National Security*

By *Kiran Pasunuri*

A silent but significant shift is unfolding across parts of India, especially in West Bengal. Streets appear normal, but there is growing unease beneath the surface. Many residents are suddenly leaving their homes, while others are moving toward the Bangladesh border.

The trigger is not just the recent SIR (Special Summary Revision) notices. The real concern is the deeper link between SIR and the newly implemented Immigration & Foreigners Act 2025.

SIR: A Routine Process Turning Into a Citizenship Signal
The SIR process usually handles corrections in the voter list.
This year, however, many in Bengal see it differently.
For them, SIR has become an indirect warning that their citizenship status may be reviewed.
This fear stems from the new national-level law—the Immigration & Foreigners Act (IFA) 2025.
IFA 2025: India’s Strongest Immigration Law Yet

Passed in March–April 2025 and enforced from September 1, 2025, the IFA introduces some of the toughest penalties India has ever seen for undocumented migration:
• Staying without valid passport/visa: 5 years jail + ₹5 lakh fine
• Fake documents: ₹10 lakh fine + immediate deportation
• Entry after deportation: Lifetime ban

The message is clear:
India is shutting the door on illegal immigration.
SIR + IFA: Why Panic Is Rising

In earlier years, missing from the voter list was not a major issue.
Now, missing from SIR is often interpreted as “citizenship under doubt”.
And once citizenship is questioned, IFA 2025 can apply.
This has created fear, leading to sudden disappearances and movement near border areas.
State governments have limited control. Matters related to citizenship, immigration, deportation and national security lie entirely with the central government.

CAA as a Protection Shield for Select Minorities
Communities from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan—Hindus, Sikhs, Christians and Parsis—can apply for citizenship under the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA).
IFA does not apply to them, providing a safety net for eligible groups.
This difference explains why some communities feel protected while others do not.

*A Larger National Strategy Unfolding*

The recent steps appear to be part of a long-term national security plan:
1. Legalising eligible minorities through CAA
2. Cracking down on illegal immigration via IFA 2025
3. Cleaning the voter list through SIR
4. Preparing for a nationwide NRC
5. Updating demographic and caste data
6. Future delimitation based on accurate population patterns

The central strategy is gradual, structured and layered.

India’s New Security Era

SIR is no longer just a voter list update.
It has become a trigger point for broader national action on citizenship and border control.
India is clearly moving into a new phase of security and demographic regulation, and not everyone is comfortable with these changes.

[Rudradev]

India today has three relatively 'stable' categories of states. Members of these categories tend to remain in these categories because of political inertia; it will take major upheavals to move a state out of one of these categories.

Category 1- the Ganga plain heartland states (UP, MP)
Category 2- the peripheral satrapies of the heartland, which exercise some independence from political trends in the heartland at times, but eventually tend to arrive at harmony with the heartland through mutual negotiation and accommodation of existing leadership structures (Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Gujarat)
Category 3- the regional contrarian states, in which local power has traditionally stemmed from the degree of independence/divergence the leadership proclaims vis-a-vis the heartland (West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Punjab, Kerala)

Other states reside in the spaces between Category 1 and 2 (1.5) or between 2 and 3 (2.5). However, they are NOT stable residents of these spaces-- rather, they are always in a state of dynamic flux between the three primary categories. Maharashtra for example was trending towards Category 3, but now is trending towards Category 2. Delhi was anomalously in Category 3 during the AAP period, but now is firmly Category 2 and trending towards category 1. Karnataka and Jharkhand may be trending more towards Category 3, while Telangana, Orissa, and Chhattisgarh are tending towards Category 2.

In Category 2 states, the local anti-BJP/NDA opposition parties have in general played second fiddle to the 'national opposition' party (thus far, Congress). In Category 3 states, the local anti-BJP/NDA opposition parties are generally in the driver's seat with Congress either allying with them for national elections or playing a 'frenemy' role in local elections.

What we saw in Bihar was the firm transition of a Category 1.5 state (it was Category 2.5 trending 3 ten years ago!) into a Category 1 state. That's why it was so significant. The local opposition party has been reduced to a marginal player, and the national opposition party has been wiped out.

[chetak]

Tejasvi increased its vote share compared to the 2020 tally.

Whereas, NDA consolidated its votes by taking Chirag and other small allies along with them, which made the difference.

[asbchakri]

Well as per analysis, RJD contested more seats, 143, compared to BJP and JDU. So naturally they polled more votes.

[uddu]

The so called 37.9 is for the whole of INDI Alliance. RJD has 23. While BJP has 21. JDU about 19.25. Congress 8.7 and Chirag 5 percent. Since this is an alliance election, it can only be seen as such. And NDA increasing their tally massively compared to the stagnant position of INDI
https://results.eci.gov.in/ResultAcGenNov2025/index.htm

[A_Gupta]

Well as per analysis, RJD contested more seats, 143, compared to BJP and JDU. So naturally they polled more votes.

BJP, JDU contested around 100 seats each. Average votes per seat - BJP 99K, JDU 95K, RJD 80K.

[uddu]

https://x.com/rishibagree/status/1993659347021504704
@rishibagree
No discrepancies were found during the mandatory counting of VVPAT slips in the Bihar Assembly election.

Votes recorded in EVMs matched perfectly with VVPAT slips in all 243 constituencies.

Candidates' Reps were present during VVPAT verification.

The entire process was recorded on CCTV.

[Hriday]

Below is from the chat of pollster Savyasachi. Some interesting points.

Pollster Shreeramjvc initially gave 18% Yadav votes to NDA. But after polls and recently in an interview he corrected it to 23%. It matches with Savyasachi calculation of 25% Yadav votes to NDA. That is great news. Hopefully will also be in effect in the next Lok sabha elections also.

https://x.com/savvyasaachi/status/19910 ... 5gyrQ&s=19

[uddu]

Election Commission Directs BLOs To Verify All Voters 60+ In The 2002 SIR roll | Bengal | News18
Election Commission directs BLOs to verify all voters 60+ in the 2002 SIR roll

[chetak]

[Hriday]

Kerala was once considered as a zero chance and zero seat for BJP. Now after a single MP seat in 2024 Lok Sabha elections two pollsters are predicting upto 21% percent of votes in local body elections. Last time it was around 15% vote share.

From Dheeraj,

https://x.com/i/status/1999095402000494795

my expectation from Kerala LB for BJP
2700 wards (2500-3000, 2020: ~1610)
18.6% vote (18.1%-19.1%, 2020: 15.8%, DP+M+MC vote)
80LB #1 or tied #1 (60-100, 2020: 32)
Trivandrum Corp absolute majority
At least 5 Municipalities #1
Significant gains across all other MCs,Ms,DPs and GPs

From Savyasachi,

https://x.com/i/status/1998026367670366498

𝗞𝗘𝗥𝗔𝗟𝗔 𝗟𝗢𝗖𝗔𝗟 𝗕𝗢𝗗𝗬 𝗘𝗟𝗘𝗖𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡(One of the intensively fought politically jelled LSGD POLL in India)
Since it is an LSGD election,V dont cover it in full due to lack of solid clients.Yet v do hv some data on it.Based on that
Quoting certain points over here
(1)

7.If luck favours,attaining No 1 position in 75+ local bodies is not an impossible task

50-80 local bodies as Single Largest Party is very much in line with winning 2.5K-3K total wards if fortune favour the brave attempt of NDA this time

8.Number of Local Bodies to go HUNG

(4)

9. In fact the votes, seats earn by NDA will decide the front runner of this election (whether it is UDF or LDF)

10. Last time LDF ruled 550+ GPs while UDF fell short of 340. This time UDF to improve its position and LDF to lose many

(5)

11.NDA gaining 18-21% voteshare is not a dream right now,after going thru the data that we hv, they may attain it,though it may proven wrong

12.LDF not to repeat its 2020 performance,UDF to better its position while NDA to be the absolute 3rd force in KL with improved might

(6)

𝗔 𝗩𝗜𝗘𝗪 𝗢𝗡 𝗣𝗥𝗘𝗦𝗘𝗡𝗧 𝗦𝗧𝗔𝗧𝗨𝗦 𝗢𝗙 𝗘𝗔𝗖𝗛 𝟭𝟰 𝗗𝗜𝗦𝗧𝗥𝗜𝗖𝗧𝗦 𝗜𝗡 𝗞𝗘𝗥𝗔𝗟𝗔

Disclaimer-Too difficult to forecast LSGD election. Limited samples,complicated trends etc are the restraints

𝗧𝗩𝗠- LDF EDGE, BJP-THE BIGGEST GAINER

(1) See Attached Tweets

[chetak]

[KL Dubey]

KL local body elections showed good results for BJP/NDA.

All results summarized nicely here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Kera ... _elections

Vote shares not yet available, but I would expect around 17-19% for NDA...about 2-4% points increase from 2020.

NDA has steadily increased its tally in all the categories. Wins are mostly in the Travancore (south KL) areas.

The one big win for BJP is in the Thiruvananthapuram corporation, which is the "most important" in KL. It looks like Rajeev Chandrasekhar has been working hard behind the scenes. Maybe also some outside "wink and nod" from Shashi Tharoor who is still hanging around in Tvm and isn't very pally with the local Congis.

The other good news is that the KL commies have had major losses in all categories. They seem to be slowly following the same path to oblivion as their comrades in other states. This outdated, useless, and failed western ideology foisted upon other countries needs to end in Bharat. Commie fade-out in KL would give rise to a BJP-INC contest (similar to KA and TG) in the coming years.

Interestingly, both Indian communism and INC have mostly retreated to dakshin bharat in the last decade, making it the most important battleground for sanatan dharma. All these rascals will have to be dealt with with utmost perserverance.

[chetak]

Did you know? CECs of Indonesia, & South Africa observed Bihar's election.

From EVM Dispatch, to polling.

~ SA's CEC: "India's digital election system is way ahead of our nation. So much to learn"


Indonesian CEC: "Anybody could tell the polls were FREE & FAIR"


watch video here

https://x.com/i/status/2000573793040015610

[uddu]

Post-Election Clashes in Kerala: Violence, Vandalism, Injuries Reported Across State | NewsX

Kerala voted for change. The CPM responded with violence!

Commies attacked BJP office and BJP responded
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QaCf_pv8n8M

Muslim league VS Communists stone throwing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VtbVOSYtodM

[Hriday]

From pollster Dheeraj,
https://x.com/i/status/1999740550162092403

BJP has done well across the state in Kerala LB but underperformed my expectations due to lack of winnability perception, pro UDF trend as anti incumbency votes consolidated to main opposition.
In Tvm as i predicted clear majority for BJP as winnability perception there

Predicting at ward level is hazardous in a localized municipal election.
But I managed to get 75/100 wards correct in Trivandrum Corp
BJP at 50 vs my prediction of 58
LDF at 29 vs 22
UDF at 19 vs 20 predicted.
some local factors and candidates in several wards overrode trend

Praise to Dheeraj from a pollster well known in India JVC Sreeram.
https://x.com/i/status/1999753435458207769

Kudos to you Dheeraj for your excellent insights on this election. Certainly the results were less than your expectations but your analysis were exceptional. Congrats.

BJP almost winning the most prestigious seat of Kerala capital city Thiruvananthapuram Corporation sent shockwaves throughout the Kerala, even for BJP supporters. On reporting that election results day, Manorama news paper stated that the Communist party members who assembled in their newly built headquarters in Thiruvananthapuram were in disbelief on learning that they are now going to be under the BJP rule in the corporation.

[VinodTK]

Maharashtra local body election results LIVE: Trends show Mahayuti crossing 200-mark, MVA trails far behind

Maharashtra local body election results 2025 LIVE updates: Early trends from the Maharashtra civic elections show the ruling Mahayuti holding a clear edge, leading in 192 local bodies, with the Bharatiya Janata Party ahead in 107 bodies and the Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde leading in 48. The Opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is currently leading in 46 bodies.

Counting is underway in 253 of the 288 municipal councils and nagar panchayats, with results from the remaining bodies awaited.

The BJP has already secured three seats unopposed, with members and presidents of the Dondaicha Municipal Council (Dhule) and Angar Nagar Panchayat (Solapur) elected without contest, while the poll for the Jammer municipal president also saw no opposition.

Together, the trends point to a strong early showing for the Mahayuti in the civic polls.

The results will mark the culmination of a two-phase civic poll held on December 2 and December 21. The results are expected to offer an early read on the balance of power between the ruling Mahayuti and the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) at the grassroots level.

The contest turned multi-dimensional in several pockets, with alliance politics intersecting with local rivalries. In a number of towns, “friendly fights” emerged as partners within the ruling Mahayuti — the Bharatiya Janata Party, Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, and Ajit Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party — fielded candidates against one another.
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[Manish_P]

Looks like the two cousins are going to have a very public falling out soon

There were reports of fighting over seats allocation but they were suppressed by the media owned by the onion merchants and their partners

[Tanaji]

I stilll dont understand what Raj brings to the table. He doesnt have financial muscle like onion merchants or UT has due to history. Mediation and vasooli can only bring do much. Despite oratory skills and cosplaying the senior T, he is unable to get more than 1-2 members elected to Assembly.

The marathi manoos card is appearing increasingly worn and shabby…

[S_Madhukar]

RT and UT are Pawarfools playthings. If the economy does well they are toast

[VinodTK]

Goa ZP election result 2025: BJP-led alliance wins 31 seats, Congress behind with 10 seats | Details

Panaji: Goa’s ruling alliance, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), on Monday won over 31 of the 50 seats in the zilla panchayat elections held on December 20.
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