Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

[vijayk]

https://x.com/OpIndia_com/status/2005291939428696241

Beyond the CIA playbook, is Germany scripting the anti-India narrative war?

Germany didn’t disappear after its Nazi past; it changed its strategy. No tanks, no armies. just institutions, ideas, and influence. From DW News to Dhruv Rathee, and now Rahul Gandhi’s speech at Germany’s Hertie School, these developments raise a serious question: why does Germany escape scrutiny whenever we discuss Western regime-change agendas in India?

In this video, @ashu_nauty
Ashish Nautiyal explains how Germany’s soft power model operates in India and why it repeatedly intervenes in internal matters.

[Vayutuvan]

Watch the photo closely, Nixon is clearly in awe of Yahyas twirled eyebrows In the presence of the Beast of Lawhore …

His right-hand thumb placement, too. sharm sharm

[VinodTK]

POTUS has Compton from China, for Indo Pak peace

‘Bizzare’: New Delhi on Wang Yi claim that Beijing mediated between India, Pakistan

[drnayar]

POTUS has Compton from China, for Indo Pak peace

‘Bizzare’: New Delhi on Wang Yi claim that Beijing mediated between India, Pakistan

pretty sure the Chinese air defence systems failing was enough incentive for the pakis., so yep the Chinese did "facilitate" by providing junk

[sanjaykumar]

There is a paucity of commentary on this. Either the Chinese oroduce garbage and should move to cardboard cut-outs or the Indians were simply brilliant.

[A_Gupta]

Turkey-Libya vs Greece, Greek Cyprus expands to Morocco, Pakistan, Israel, India. Somalia and Somaliland, too?
https://youtu.be/2SYPI0_h0ZE?si=vxzyimSKWmjMJrfW

New developments are unfolding in Libya that could shake regional balances. At the beginning of the article, GZT Editor-in-Chief Doğukan Gezer asks the questions, and Retired Rear Admiral Cihat Yaycı, a faculty member at Topkapı University, provides the answers. The plane carrying the Libyan Chief of General Staff and a high-level military delegation crashed in Ankara. Why was the Libyan delegation in Turkey, and what messages did this visit convey?

Contrary to public perception, Turkey's presence in Libya since 2019 is not based on warfare on the ground; it is based on logistical support and military consultancy. How did the military cooperation and Maritime Delimitation Agreement signed on November 27, 2019, affect the civil war in Libya and the balance in the Eastern Mediterranean? Why did the Libya resolution, renewed in the Turkish Grand National Assembly on December 22, 2025, bring Libya's highest-level military command to Ankara? How does the summit held in Jerusalem on the same day by the leaders of Greece, the Greek Cypriot Administration, and Israel intersect with this message? Why did the Turkey-Libya Maritime Delimitation Agreement disrupt Greece's plans in the Eastern Mediterranean?

To better understand this complex equation, stretching from Libya to the Eastern Mediterranean, and from Pakistan to Africa, in its military, political, and geopolitical dimensions, you can watch our video.

[Mukesh.Kumar]

Breaking News: BBC: US seizes Russian-flagged tanker in Atlantic as UK confirms it gave support to operation

The US Coast Guard boarded the Marinera (originally the Bella-1, which was reflagged to Russia and changed name). The Americans are really in a hurry to precipitate a crisis. Is it because they believe that Russia is too weak and bogged down in Ukraine to take concrete steps against the US?

At the same time with the White House speaking forth on Greenland, the US seems to antagonize Europe. How many fires are being lit at the same time?

[Vayutuvan]

It is more to do with throwing Pukraine and Formosa under the bus, cutting China out of South America, making Euros to bend the knee to massa, and securing Japan/SoKo/Phillipines, and isolate China.

[Y. Kanan]

US says it will control Venezuelan oil sales indefinitely
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... 0937&ei=6

I'm sure this is oversimplifying, but in addition to screwing China did Trump also just save the petrodollar?

[chanakyaa]

Breaking News: BBC: US seizes Russian-flagged tanker in Atlantic as UK confirms it gave support to operation

Public records show that this vessel is owned and operated by a Turkish company

LOUIS MARINE SHIPHOLDING ENT
Daire 18, Blok U, Mimarbasi Sokagi,
Evliya Celebi Mah, 1, Tuzla,
Istanbul, Turkey.

And, this company was already added to the sanctions list in 2024, here is the OFAC link https://sanctionssearch.ofac.treas.gov/ ... x?id=49244

[vijayk]

US says it will control Venezuelan oil sales indefinitely
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... 0937&ei=6

I'm sure this is oversimplifying, but in addition to screwing China did Trump also just save the petrodollar?

https://x.com/_The_Prophet__/status/2009079720412074197

This is a geostrategic compression move masquerading as a feel-good trade deal.

On the surface, it reads like a soft partnership headline. Underneath, it’s a full-spectrum realignment of hemispheric influence using three converging levers:

1. Petrodollar reassertion via supply chain tethering

Venezuela’s oil revenues are being routed into enforced USD recycling - not through bonds or reserves, but through mandated purchasing of U.S. goods. This is monetary capture disguised as bilateral cooperation. Instead of hoarding dollars or flipping to BRICS, Venezuela is now contractually recycling oil capital into American industrial channels.

2. Soft occupation via industrial dependency

The targeted purchases - agriculture, energy infrastructure, medical - are sovereign capacity levers. These are the pillars of domestic autonomy. By locking Venezuela into American supply lines for each, the U.S. converts raw oil flows into strategic subordination. Venezuela becomes de facto integrated into a U.S.-controlled logistics network under the narrative of mutual benefit.

3. Multipolar deterrence through selective integration

At a time when China and Russia are consolidating energy alliances in Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America, this deal injects reverse alignment entropy. It signals to wavering countries that dollar cooperation now comes with material rewards and bilateral prestige. No sanctions, no IMF squeeze - just oil-for-infrastructure, tied to American output.

What this actually is:
•A resurrection of petrodollar dominance in hemispheric form
•A sovereignty-capture template that bypasses old Bretton Woods tools
•A warning shot to BRICS+ that the U.S. is no longer playing defense

It also signals how Trump’s foreign policy in this phase is less ideological and more operational. It’s about engineering co-dependency through industrial trade discipline. This is a form of geopolitical rehypothecation: Venezuela gets liquidity, America gets leverage, China gets boxed out.

Final read: this is a proof-of-concept for energy-based loyalty contracts.

The empire isn’t shrinking.

It’s mutating.

https://x.com/_the_prophet__/status/200 ... 56838?s=48

This is a war economy blueprint disguised as a growth plan.

Trump is fusing monetary policy, trade war mechanics, and industrial production into one operating system - with military supremacy as the terminal function.

He’s not rebuilding the military.

He’s rebooting the American empire.

Every signal is recursive:
•Tariffs become capital controls.
•Defense spending becomes employment stimulus.
•Debt becomes a weapon, not a liability.
•Inflation becomes a tolerated side effect of sovereign projection.

This doctrine doesn’t try to stabilize global order. It monetizes disorder. The military becomes a dual-purpose machine: outward-facing deterrence and inward-facing cohesion. It absorbs economic slack and converts it into perceived strength.

The dollar’s credibility will no longer rest on fiscal prudence or market openness. It will rest on overwhelming deterrence, energy control, and trade enforcement. The endgame is compliance.

This is how hegemonic transitions are resisted. Through fiscal-military ignition, narrative compression, and engineered escalation. Trump is not improvising. He is encoding force into the monetary substrate.

There is no neutrality left. You are either inside this ignition arc, or outside its protection. The walls are realigning. The empire is rearming. The countdown has already begun.

[vijayk]

What are India's Options?

1. US wants to choke entire world economy by restricting supply of Oil.
2. Make deals to loot the world by forcing them to trade with $$ earned and buy only American goods at high prices. You can't shop around
3. Force other country to buy weapons but don't deliver ... delay, screw them and kill them if needed
4. Use rogue actors like Pakistan. Looks like Pakis are going attack Kabul now. China is telling everyone to get out of Afghanistan

[Vayutuvan]

India's options, in the short term, are limited.

1. Use coal in place of O&NG where possible.
2. Ramp up Solar.

3. Take BioCNG tech development on a war footing (semi-long term)
4. While ramping up indigenisation, make deals with China for consumer items payable in Roubles/Yuan/INR (?)
5. Get arms from Russia if possible.
6. As long as India can defend its borders on the west and east, keep out of Afghanistan. Let the US via Pakis and China via Pakis fight it out.

[vijayk]

https://x.com/Geiger_Capital/status/2009291322054574221

It’s very likely that the Supreme Court will rule against Trump’s tariffs tomorrow…

This will result in Trump’s key economic policy being weakened, a tsunami of lawsuits for massive refunds, and a higher deficit via the loss of hundreds of billions in projected annual revenue.

[KL Dubey]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/krnkashyap ... rade-deal/

India And EU Are On The Cusp Of Signing A ‘Consequential’ Trade Deal

India’s Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal visited Brussels Thursday for talks with his EU counterpart to give an impetus to a proposed trade pact, for which negotiations are in the last phase.
....

As the 14th round of negotiations between the two sides concluded in October 2025, the developed momentum will play a key role in 15th round to surmount remaining challenges of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), Geographical Indications (GIs), critical minerals and Intellectual Property Rights (IPR’s).

This "last phase" includes the CBAM, which is basically a tariff. So the sensible thing is to drop CBAM from any "free trade" agreement. Let's see what happens. At beginning of 2025, the goal was to have the FTA done by end of 2025. It seems the two sides have seriously worked on this and hopefully it will be coming soon with all issues resolved.

[drnayar]

India's options, in the short term, are limited.

1. Use coal in place of O&NG where possible.
2. Ramp up Solar.

3. Take BioCNG tech development on a war footing (semi-long term)
4. While ramping up indigenisation, make deals with China for consumer items payable in Roubles/Yuan/INR (?)
5. Get arms from Russia if possible.
6. As long as India can defend its borders on the west and east, keep out of Afghanistan. Let the US via Pakis and China via Pakis fight it out.

Go big on nuclear ! .. ensure supplies from Canada , Australia etc ., Clusters of 700 mw plants., SMRs for large industrial zones ..promote electrification of all public transport

China is already on track to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels by a significant percent !

[Vayutuvan]

Go big on nuclear ! .. ensure supplies from Canada , Australia etc ., Clusters of 700 mw plants., SMRs for large industrial zones ..promote electrification of all public transport

I don't think it can be done in the short term. There is also a dependency on Canada and Australia, both of which are beholden to the US. Canada can make all kinds of noises, but the reality is that it is too tightly bound to the US. Almost all their population lives just a little north of the US border.

[Vayutuvan]

AI says

Approximately 66% of the Canadian population lives within 100 kilometers (62 miles) of the U.S. border, according to Statistics Canada. A frequently cited but less accurate figure often states the percentage to be around 90% when using a distance of 100 miles (about 160 km).

[Shanmukh]

Go big on nuclear ! .. ensure supplies from Canada , Australia etc ., Clusters of 700 mw plants., SMRs for large industrial zones ..promote electrification of all public transport

I don't think it can be done in the short term. There is also a dependency on Canada and Australia, both of which are beholden to the US. Canada can make all kinds of noises, but the reality is that it is too tightly bound to the US. Almost all their population lives just a little north of the US border.

Get the uranium from Kazakhstan, Namibia, and even Russia itself. There is no need to depend on Australia or Canada. Wiki chacha says that Kazakhstan produced 43% of the total uranium in the world in 2022.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... production

[uddu]

If we have access to Afghanistan, we could directly connect to Central Asia rather than rely on Russia and Iran.

[drnayar]

[uddu]

https://x.com/i/status/2009318329782296753
@samartoor3086
In a jaw-dropping escalation, Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared in full combat uniform and issued a dire warning to Ukraine: "If Kiev refuses peace, Russia will crush all its goals in the Special Military Operation through PURE MILITARY FORCE!"

[uddu]

https://x.com/MattooShashank/status/2009337976921411996
@MattooShashank
“India is going to be President of the BRICS. I want to work with India to build bridges. BRICS countries must not become anti-G7. And the G7 must not become anti-BRICS,” says French President Emmanuel Macron

[uddu]

https://x.com/Valen10Francois/status/20 ... 5138144564
@Valen10Francois
The remarkable thing about the US heaping pressure on Denmark over Greenland is that it's been the one country that has consistently (and at times slavishly) played ball with the US

[Cyrano]

The US has made it clear that everything is now transactional power play. Old favours cannot be called, they mean nothing. Agreements and contracts are no longer sacrosanct. They can be ripped and thrown in the bin if deemed not benefiting at any future date. Rules based disorder is here. Anything that is vital to a country will be used to arm twist and blackmail.

This mutant troll of an empire will have no friends, only vassals or adversaries.

[drnayar]

Regime change operations live from IRAN



interesting to look at the scripted media narratives played across Google, Facebook, X and Youtube !!

[drnayar]

RT wishes Europeans a lovely Christmas

[drnayar]

[drnayar]

Dovaljis statement should be a sticky note in BRF for all time !!

India’s NSA Ajit Doval’s powerful statement: “We were a very advanced civilization. We never broke anyone's temples. We did not attack any foreigners even when the rest of the world was weak we did not understand the threats to our security. And so history taught us a lesson.”

https://x.com/i/status/2009873115124494424

[Mukesh.Kumar]

drnayar-ji, I would recommend a movie. Judgement at Nuremberg (1961). Keeping in mind that behind this championing of rule of law and individual responsibility, even this is a propaganda piece, it gives insight into American thinking as the movie (which was marketed with three Academy Awards). By 1949, the Berlin blockade had brought home the reality of the Cold War and America and Western Europe needed the Germans on their side. Having fought the war claiming moral high ground and started the Nuremberg trials, the reality of white washing Germans as allies became important. And voila, a few years later, a star studded ensemble cast, Oscars and you have it.

Would highly recommend this movie as a master class in moulding public perception.

Further discussion in Good Books thread.

[drnayar]

[drnayar]

[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G-L8nXFbgAE ... me=900x900[/img

drnayar-ji, I would recommend a movie. Judgement at Nuremberg (1961). Keeping in mind that behind this championing of rule of law and individual responsibility, even this is a propaganda piece, it gives insight into American thinking as the movie (which was marketed with three Academy Awards). By 1949, the Berlin blockade had brought home the reality of the Cold War and America and Western Europe needed the Germans on their side. Having fought the war claiming moral high ground and started the Nuremberg trials, the reality of white washing Germans as allies became important. And voila, a few years later, a star studded ensemble cast, Oscars and you have it.

Would highly recommend this movie as a master class in moulding public perception.

thank you.,mukeshji

[Aarvee]

Dovaljis statement should be a sticky note in BRF for all time !!

India’s NSA Ajit Doval’s powerful statement: “We were a very advanced civilization. We never broke anyone's temples. We did not attack any foreigners even when the rest of the world was weak we did not understand the threats to our security. And so history taught us a lesson.”

https://x.com/i/status/2009873115124494424

Indians need to realise that because a cow is non-violent, the tiger will not spare her. Because we are "just" , we will not be safe.

We have to be powerful enough, demonstrate that we can defend ourselves and dish out some punishment when required to keep the enemies at bay.

[sanjaykumar]

Relax India has been trying to get to the law of the jungle for some decades. It is merely accruing the national power before declaring itself.

FOr good or bad. And I honestly do not know which.

[A_Gupta]

^^^ I trust India is doing covertly whatever it can to derail the Jamaat in Bangladesh. That would be self-defense. Of course, it has to remain covert to be effective. I imagine there are quite a few Awami League types who would be cooperative with such efforts.

On the ethics of it - the Jamaat crosses a red line that makes interfering with them legitimate, IMO. I would not advocate any interference with those who remain within the lines.

The American way of trying to work with the Jamaat because they calculate it is coming to power I disapprove of. If they were exercising influence to the moderates such as they are - if they can be called that - I wouldn’t mind so much.

[Y. Kanan]

Turkey in 'advanced talks' to join Saudi Arabia and Pakistan defence pact\
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/turk ... act-report

Supposedly this pact treats “any aggression” against any member as an attack on all, mirroring NATO’s Article 5” ... but does it, really? This seems like it would be a HUGE deal if true, but no one's talking about it...

[drnayar]

In January 2026, the United Kingdom formally declined US requests for assistance or the use of British military bases to facilitate a potential American invasion or annexation of Greenland.

UK Defence Secretary John Healey stated there is "no question" of British personnel or equipment being used to support a US operation against Greenland, citing treaty obligations with Denmark as a fellow NATO member.
British officials have met with counterparts from Germany and France to begin early-stage preparations for a possible NATO mission in Greenland. The proposed force would include British soldiers, warships, and aircraft intended to guard the Arctic against Russian and Chinese influence, while simultaneously deterring American annexation plans.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer joined leaders from France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and Spain in a joint statement affirming that "Greenland belongs to its people" and that its territorial integrity must be preserved.

President Donald Trump has ordered US special forces to draft invasion plans for Greenland, following a successful operation in Venezuela. The White House has stated that "utilizing the US military is always an option" to acquire the territory.

The Danish government has pledged $1.5 billion in additional defense spending for Greenland and warned that a US attack would signify the end of the NATO alliance

[drnayar]

Turkey in 'advanced talks' to join Saudi Arabia and Pakistan defence pact\
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/turk ... act-report

Supposedly this pact treats “any aggression” against any member as an attack on all, mirroring NATO’s Article 5” ... but does it, really? This seems like it would be a HUGE deal if true, but no one's talking about it...

Maybe they hope to get paki " nuke" umbrella.

Wont worry too much about it.. all treaties are good till it meets a reality check.

Operation Sindhoor is ongoing., Turkey is welcome to join , as dinner

[A_Gupta]

Turkey in 'advanced talks' to join Saudi Arabia and Pakistan defence pact\
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/turk ... act-report

Supposedly this pact treats “any aggression” against any member as an attack on all, mirroring NATO’s Article 5” ... but does it, really? This seems like it would be a HUGE deal if true, but no one's talking about it...

Reading the history provided in the cited article, I wouldn’t give any treaty more than five years of life.

[drnayar]

India holds the AIRSPACE LEVERAGE over Bangladesh–Pakistan flights

Dhaka–Karachi direct flights can resume only if India allows overflying rights

Denial means a 3-hour, 2,300 km route turns into a 5,800 km, 8-hour detour around India, ECONOMICALLY UNVIABLE for both sides.

With MEA saying the issue will be handled under existing agreements, the decision rests entirely with Narendra Modi

Just ban the flights.