West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

[Amber G.]

TL;DR:
Opening a new thread, with hopefully BRF admins’ blessing
West Asia is a mess—loose-loose for everyone. US/Israel strikes vs Iran aren’t decisive; Iran survives, regional oil/security threatened. Bharat is relatively well-positioned: focus on energy independence, strategic autonomy, and leverage without picking sides.

Opening post:

Since I feel somewhat helpless (Indian-origin, living in the US, with genuine ties to both Israel and Iran’s scientific communities)… may as well add a few thoughts here

The West Asia situation is honestly worse than I had imagined. With Donald Trump at the helm, flanked by “nuclear experts” like Witkoff and Jared Kushner, and a Secretary of “War” supposedly running the show, while being repeatedly outmaneuvered by Benjamin Netanyahu, it’s hard to see any clear strategy. Feels like a classic loose-loose war setup.

It’s loose-loose for everyone:

Israel, Iran, and United States are all paying a heavy price.
Regional oil infrastructure, security, and trade routes are under strain.
Diminishing returns on strikes, underground bunkers, and survival strategies are complicating the picture.

From Bharat’s perspective, though, we seem relatively better positioned. Credit to the steady, multi-vector approach under Narendra Modi, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, and their advisers. Quiet diplomacy, energy security, and strategic autonomy give us leverage without having to pick sides in a full-blown regional mess.

Some ideas for discussion:

How should Bharat accelerate energy independence and reduce reliance on unstable regions?
What role can we play in quietly shaping regional outcomes without direct entanglement?
How can we leverage diaspora, supply chains, and BRICS leadership to strengthen our strategic position?

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts, analyses, or differing perspectives. Let’s try to separate signal from noise in this chaotic scenario.

[Amber G.]

To set the stage, here’s a detailed perspective from another poster I found quite thought-provoking:

The situation as I see it right now:

- Iran sarkar (goremint, "mosaic" military, and mullah regime) seem functional with new people taking over

- the top layer of Iran guys from last month have nearly all perished. Only the Prez Pezishkian (sounds uncomfortably close to "pechish-kiya") survives ?

- USA and Israel have bombed a lot of Iran but running out of new meaningful targets. Diminishing returns setting in?

- Iran seems to have plenty of missiles left. Some tunnel entrances claimed to be collapsed but the stuff is still in there to be pulled out when needed?

- Russia and China seem to be helping Iran considerably.

- Other western countries not interested.

- GCC arabs in bad shape, oil infra blown up, US bases destroyed and not operational (is this confirmed?). Possibly seeing nightmares of going back to camel breeding/date farming...the sands eventually burying the oil fields.

- Israel also seems in bad shape ? Tel Aviv seems battered, recently Jerusalem ("holy city" areas included) was hit by Iran I think.

- Trump sarkar claimed war is won, no need for allies ---> wait, we need allies to open the Strait ----> well, if nobody is interested then we still don't need any allies, all useless fellows ----> Sending boots on ground ---> Plan deferred/slowed down ----> next ???

- Folks like retd karnail MacGregor (Trump protege till recently), prof Mearsheimer (also military background), and one Scott Ritter (former nukular inspector sahib?) all keep saying "Iran is winning since it is still surviving and make things unmanageable for others both militarily and oil supplies through the hormuz and possibly red sea routes". These people seem to have gained a lot of following during the Ukraine war for "correct/realistic" predictions. What do BRF "experts" think ?

A different angle from Bharat perspective: mullah-rabbi-padre conflicts playing out in west asia. Which, BTW, is where all of abrahamism started (and seems like could end there).

- In my opinion padre is too far away geographically from continental Asia to be directly able to wrest control of Iran (~100 mn population), at the most they could dent Iran by air and sea strikes till munitions run out.

- While we have used rabbi as a partner, they are too small (~7 million) and too dependent on padre and desalination plants. Effectively, rabbi is/was padre's main strike package in west asia but they seem to be nearing exhaustion too.

- at the same time, rabbi has used intelligence agencies to apparently make padre acquiesce to their goals...i can't help but think Apestein was a part of that same blackmail/intelligence network

- mullahs on both sides (across the strait and across shia/sunni divide) are getting hammered one way or the other. Iran people have mostly lost faith in abrahamism, and GCC arabs care more about their lavish lifestyles and having foreign hired guns to run their countries.

- For Bharat, other than the fuel disruptions, this seems another lucky break in accelerating return of Bharat because mullah-padre-rabbi are busy trying to destroy each other.

- How best should Bharat play this ? I'd say: Double down on indigenous clean energy. "Support" all three combatants to the point of exhaustion, since none of them is strong enough to force us to "choose a side" other than our own side. Make the combatants more dependent on us (food, security, meds etc). Recall Indian expats from GCC and integrate them in Bharat economy (will have much higher impact than getting remittances). Ditch petrodollar, strengthen BRICS (Bharat is the chair this year). Anything else ?

[Amber G.]

FWIW: My comments for the above. and some reality check, (IMO) including nitpicks
1) Leadership losses in Iran — some what exaggerated
My Iranian friends say Iran’s system is redundant. Even major shocks historically (e.g., assassinations) have not collapsed the state.

2) “Running out of targets” — some what oversimplified
Air campaigns rarely “run out” of targets in that way.
Underground infrastructure complicates things, but doesn’t make it immune.
“Diminishing returns” can happen—but it’s not evidence of failure.

3) Damage to GCC and Israel — caution - unverified / likely overstated
(In absence of broad confirmation, I treat some as exaggerated)

4) “Iran is winning because it survives” — valid in a sense that in a classic asymmetric warfare if it survives and imposes cost → it’s “winning”

But: Survival ≠ strategic victory and long-term degradation (economy, infrastructure, isolation), of course matters

5) Reducing geopolitics to “mullah vs rabbi vs padre”: Ignores nationalism, state interests, economics.
6) Russia–China “considerable help” — nuanced reality
Neither is likely to fully back Iran in a direct war with the U.S.

But India (Bharat) strategy — makes sense

Energy diversification (clean + nuclear + strategic reserves)
Strategic autonomy (not picking rigid sides)
Supply chain leverage (food, pharma, services)

Also these align with India’s long-term policy anyway.

Some caution/ risky ideas:

“Support all sides quietly”
Dangerous—if too overt (India traditionally avoids this kind of multi-side manipulation)

“Recall all GCC expats”

Remittances from Gulf (~$40–50B/year) are economically significant - sudden return would stress domestic job markets

“Ditch petrodollar quickly”
Not realistically feasible in near term, IMO

A more realistic playbook:, IMO:

Maintain ties with:
Iran (connectivity, Chabahar)
Israel (defense, tech)
United States (strategic partnership, Manage Trump wisely )
Gulf states (energy + diaspora)

Avoid direct entanglement
Focus on economic + technological resilience
Quiet diplomacy instead of overt positioning

[Amber G.]

Q: Iran's foreign ministry says you're not telling the truth when it comes to productive conversations to end the war

TRUMP:

Well, they're gonna have to get themselves better public relations people. We've had very strong talks. Mr Witkoff and Kushner had them. They went perfectly.

Did Trump just concede defeat from Iran?

Trump says the Strait of Hormuz will be likely jointly controlled by him and the next Ayatollah of Iran.


Major statement indirectly claiming there will be no regime change in Iran.

[Amber G.]

^^^ U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday (March 23, 2026) the ‌U.S. has had good and ⁠productive conversations with Iran and he will order the ‌military to postpone any military strikes ‌against Iranian power ‌plants ⁠and energy infrastructure for ⁠five days^^^Trump sees 'regime change' in surprise Iran talks

Iran media Press TV reported there was no contact for talks with the US, whether direct or indirect
After Trump's No-Strike Decision, Iran Media Bursts Out Laughing At HimI

<video>Trump: "Tomorrow morning, we were expected to blow up their largest electric generating plants that cost over $10 billion to build. One shot. It's gone. It collapses. Why would they want that? So they called. I didn't call. They called. They want to make a deal."

[Cyrano]

With several levels of Iranian leadership decapitated, who is the they/them he is referring to?
Assuming they/them did call, what authority and control do they/them have in Iran to hold up whatever is agreed?

He is just bs ing to make some quick moolah as the markets swing up and down with such news and buy time until the ships with boots arrive in the region.

[williams]

With several levels of Iranian leadership decapitated, who is the they/them he is referring to?
Assuming they/them did call, what authority and control do they/them have in Iran to hold up whatever is agreed?

He is just bs ing to make some quick moolah as the markets swing up and down with such news and buy time until the ships with boots arrive in the region.

Exactly it could be a ruse to bring on more ground troops to take over the islands and shores of Hormuz. Is it possible to bring a couple of divisions to the region in five days? And can that give them enough fire power to get a foot hold in the strait? There is a lot of analyst saying it is not possible even then. The current MEUs on the way cannot do much unless it is followed up by more solid ground troops.

[Amber G.]

Israel, American media quoting sources reporting US, Iran touch via Pakistan, Egypt, Turkiye, Iran media quoting sources dismissing any direct contact with Americans for talks, reject Trump's talk claims.
(At this point, no one knows exactly what is happening nor what Trump is saying or doing as war enters the 4th week & energy prices becomes a major issue globally.)

No negotiations have been held with the US, Iran Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf says. His name has been 'leaked' in Western media as the 'Top Leader' US side has been engaging.


MB Ghalibaf
@mb_ghalibaf
2/ No negotiations have been held with the US, and fakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped.

[Amber G.]

Pakistan stepping into a mediation role in US-Iran talks later this week!.

[Amber G.]

xpost:

Bloomberg reporting (summarized by other outlets) states the U.S. lost 16 military aircraft during the Iran campaign, but not 16 fighter jets. Losses included a mix of aircraft types, and only some were fighter jets (e.g., F‑15E, F‑35 incidents).

Firstpost
Reported the U.S. has lost 16 military aircraft in the Iran war.
Breakdown:
12 MQ‑9 Reaper drones
4 crewed aircraft:
Three F‑15s (friendly fire by Kuwait)
One KC‑135 tanker (refueling accident)
Loss figures attributed to Bloomberg.

All detailed reporting on U.S. aircraft losses—such as the widely cited figure of 16 U.S. aircraft lost—comes from:
Bloomberg
Firstpost
Zee News
South China Morning Post
Times of India

[Amber G.]

During his address on West Asia conflict, PM Narendra Modi tells parliaments that India imports from 41 nations and has diversified sources in recent years.
Energy imports span 41 countries, up from 27: PM Modi hails diversifying sources in Lok Sabha.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke in the Lok Sabha today on the Middle East conflict and the challenges it has created for India
A Covid Reminder In PM Modi's Rundown Of Middle East War Impact On India

EAM Jaishankar speaks with US' secretary Rubio on West Asia conflict

Had a detailed telecon this evening with US @SecRubio Our discussions focused on the West Asia conflict and its impact on the international economy. We particularly spoke about energy security concerns. Agreed to remain in touch.

[Amber G.]

From: https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.co ... irect=true

• BREAKING. Thirty-six hours ago President Donald Trump said “obliterate.” This morning he said “productive conversations.” The question every trader, diplomat, and general is asking: what broke between Saturday night and Monday morning?
  
  Six things broke simultaneously. Not one of them was Iranian.
  
  First. The bill arrived. The Pentagon requested over $200 billion in supplemental funding. The war cost $11.3 billion in six days, $16.5 billion in twelve. At $1.38 billion per day and accelerating, congressional resistance to the supplemental is real. The money that was supposed to fund “days not weeks” now needs a vote that may not pass.
  
  Second. The Fed killed the rate-cut thesis. On March 18, the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.5 to 3.75 percent and revised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 2.7 percent from 2.4, citing the Iran war energy shock. The dot plot shows one cut in all of 2026, down from two. Every basis point of delayed easing is pain for housing, credit, and the Magnificent Seven. The war that was supposed to demonstrate strength is demonstrating inflation.
  
  Third. The allies revolted politely. Twenty-two countries signed up to coordinate on Hormuz. Zero committed a warship during combat. Japan is releasing strategic reserves. South Korea’s Kospi has fallen 12 percent. Europe’s gas surged 35 percent after Qatar’s LNG was knocked offline & declared force majeure up to 5 years. Trump called NATO “cowards” and got a press release. The coalition of the willing is a coalition of the waiting.
  
  Fourth. TSMC sent the signal. Taiwan imports nearly 97 percent of its energy. Its LNG reserves cover 11 days. Qatar supplies a third of global helium, which TSMC needs for chip fabrication. The helium is bottled behind a closed strait. Every Nvidia GPU, every Apple chip, every AI cluster depends on a fab in Hsinchu counting its gas in single-digit days. The Magnificent Seven have shed hundreds of billions as energy rotation crushes tech.
  
  Fifth. Birol named the damage. The IEA chief told Australia this morning that 40 energy assets across nine countries are severely damaged, global oil supply has fallen 11 million barrels per day, the crisis exceeds both 1970s shocks combined, and no country is immune. He named fertilisers and helium as interrupted flows. The man who runs global energy security called the war Trump started the worst energy crisis in modern history.
  
  Sixth. The midterms. Gas prices are up 93 cents per gallon. Sixty-six percent of Americans call this a war of choice. Sixty percent disapprove. Fifty-seven percent say it is going badly. The numbers that matter in Washington are not barrels per day. They are approval ratings in swing states where voters fill their tanks every Tuesday.
  
  Six pressures. One post. President Trump did not discover diplomacy. He discovered arithmetic. The 48-hour ultimatum was a threat. The 5-day pause is a confession that the threat’s consequences were worse than its target. Destroying power plants would have sealed the strait permanently, triggered Ghalibaf’s promise to “irreversibly destroy” Gulf desalination and energy infrastructure, crashed TSMC’s supply chain, spiked inflation past 3 percent, and handed the midterms to the opposition on a platter of $7 gasoline.
  
  The pause is real. The relief is not. The strait is still closed. The 40 assets are still damaged. The fertiliser is still blocked. The planting window is still closing. The five-day clock is already ticking.
  
  The molecules do not negotiate. The molecules wait.

[Cyrano]

My guess is that these 5 day talks will fail, OM will get the troops to occupy an island or two, possibly with connivance of whoever is representing Iran, declare victory and spin it until midterms. Both sides will go at each other after a few months of R&R.
Meanwhile the world can go to hell or starve with high energy prices but who cares?!

[Amber G.]

Meanwhile: From USA: "For privacy reasons, we cannot comment on cases involving U.S. citizens, US embassy on arrest of 2 US nationals for flying a drone near the Coast Guard Headquarters in Kochi"

[Amber G.]

IRGC issued a stark warning today, broadcast on state television and widely shared online, outlining what it frames as its rules of engagement or red lines in the ongoing conflict with the U.S. and Israel.

“You struck our hospitals, we did not do the same. You struck our emergency centers, we did not do the same. You struck our schools, we did not do the same. But if you strike electricity, we will strike electricity.”

This is positioned as a formal escalation baseline: Iran claims it has exercised restraint by not retaliating against civilian infrastructure hits (hospitals, emergency/relief centers, schools) despite reported damage (e.g., hundreds of health facilities, schools, and Red Crescent sites affected in Tehran province per state reports).

However, targeting electricity/power grids crosses a critical threshold, prompting reciprocal strikes on power infrastructure, potentially across the region, including facilities supplying U.S. bases, Gulf states, Israel, or shared economic/energy assets.

The IRGC described attacks on electricity as “inhumane” due to cascading effects on humanitarian services (hospitals, water/desalination plants, emergency systems, etc.), especially in desert climates reliant on power for water, cooling, and medical support.

This directly responds to President Trump’s threats (and partial postponement): He had issued a 48-hour ultimatum for full Strait of Hormuz reopening or face strikes on Iranian power plants/energy sites, now delayed five days amid claimed indirect talks.

Iran vows retaliation would be proportional and immediate.

[williams]

My guess is that these 5 day talks will fail, OM will get the troops to occupy an island or two, possibly with connivance of whoever is representing Iran, declare victory and spin it until midterms. Both sides will go at each other after a few months of R&R.
Meanwhile the world can go to hell or starve with high energy prices but who cares?!

Occupying is one thing, holding and having a safe supply logistics bridge is another thing. Iran is not Afghanistan, they have some beef. They will make it bloody. Midterms is already a goner and it is for the Democrats to lose. Too many clown demonstration that woke up independents and young voters. I think this is going to be one of those classic TACOs. Next stop Cuba!

[Amber G.]

Meanwhile:
Miller: What President Trump is doing is a national miracle that will be studied not only for generations but for centuries to come.

Trump: Kash, see if you can top that.

Patel: Mr. President, thank you for delivering the safest country on God's green Earth

Link: <video>

[Amber G.]

Pentagon official Elbridge Colby in Delhi today.

[Amber G.]

-4th week continues with hopes on peace, preparations for the worst
-FT says Munir-Trump spoke; Pakistan seen as mediator
-Strikes in Iran, Lebanon, Israel
-Alarms in Bahrain, interceptions in Kuwait
-Iran scientist Dr. Saeed Shamaqadari killed

[Cyrano]

My guess is that these 5 day talks will fail, OM will get the troops to occupy an island or two, possibly with connivance of whoever is representing Iran, declare victory and spin it until midterms. Both sides will go at each other after a few months of R&R.
Meanwhile the world can go to hell or starve with high energy prices but who cares?!

Occupying is one thing, holding and having a safe supply logistics bridge is another thing. Iran is not Afghanistan, they have some beef. They will make it bloody. Midterms is already a goner and it is for the Democrats to lose. Too many clown demonstration that woke up independents and young voters. I think this is going to be one of those classic TACOs. Next stop Cuba!

I'm thinking match fixing to occupy an island or two claim victory with min casualties

[uddu]

https://x.com/sidhant/status/2036112225417728426
Hormuz will be 'jointly controlled' by 'me & the next Ayatollah' says Trump

[Cyrano]

Freudian slip.

[uddu]

@the_fauxy
𝗕𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗞𝗜𝗡𝗚: 𝗜𝗿𝗮𝗻 𝗚𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗨𝗦 𝟱 𝗗𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗚𝗲𝘁 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘆 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗪𝗮𝗿 𝗔𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻