West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 23 Mar 2026 01:03

TL;DR:
Opening a new thread, with hopefully BRF admins’ blessing

West Asia is a mess—loose-loose for everyone. US/Israel strikes vs Iran aren’t decisive; Iran survives, regional oil/security threatened. Bharat is relatively well-positioned: focus on energy independence, strategic autonomy, and leverage without picking sides.

Opening post:

Since I feel somewhat helpless (Indian-origin, living in the US, with genuine ties to both Israel and Iran’s scientific communities)… may as well add a few thoughts here

The West Asia situation is honestly worse than I had imagined. With Donald Trump at the helm, flanked by “nuclear experts” like Witkoff and Jared Kushner, and a Secretary of “War” supposedly running the show, while being repeatedly outmaneuvered by Benjamin Netanyahu, it’s hard to see any clear strategy. Feels like a classic loose-loose war setup.

It’s loose-loose for everyone:

Israel, Iran, and United States are all paying a heavy price.
Regional oil infrastructure, security, and trade routes are under strain.
Diminishing returns on strikes, underground bunkers, and survival strategies are complicating the picture.

From Bharat’s perspective, though, we seem relatively better positioned. Credit to the steady, multi-vector approach under Narendra Modi, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, and their advisers. Quiet diplomacy, energy security, and strategic autonomy give us leverage without having to pick sides in a full-blown regional mess.

Some ideas for discussion:

How should Bharat accelerate energy independence and reduce reliance on unstable regions?
What role can we play in quietly shaping regional outcomes without direct entanglement?
How can we leverage diaspora, supply chains, and BRICS leadership to strengthen our strategic position?

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts, analyses, or differing perspectives. Let’s try to separate signal from noise in this chaotic scenario.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 23 Mar 2026 01:06

To set the stage, here’s a detailed perspective from another poster I found quite thought-provoking:

KL Dubey wrote: ↑22 Mar 2026 11:00 The situation as I see it right now:

- Iran sarkar (goremint, "mosaic" military, and mullah regime) seem functional with new people taking over

- the top layer of Iran guys from last month have nearly all perished. Only the Prez Pezishkian (sounds uncomfortably close to "pechish-kiya") survives ?

- USA and Israel have bombed a lot of Iran but running out of new meaningful targets. Diminishing returns setting in?

- Iran seems to have plenty of missiles left. Some tunnel entrances claimed to be collapsed but the stuff is still in there to be pulled out when needed?

- Russia and China seem to be helping Iran considerably.

- Other western countries not interested.

- GCC arabs in bad shape, oil infra blown up, US bases destroyed and not operational (is this confirmed?). Possibly seeing nightmares of going back to camel breeding/date farming...the sands eventually burying the oil fields.

- Israel also seems in bad shape ? Tel Aviv seems battered, recently Jerusalem ("holy city" areas included) was hit by Iran I think.

- Trump sarkar claimed war is won, no need for allies ---> wait, we need allies to open the Strait ----> well, if nobody is interested then we still don't need any allies, all useless fellows ----> Sending boots on ground ---> Plan deferred/slowed down ----> next ???

- Folks like retd karnail MacGregor (Trump protege till recently), prof Mearsheimer (also military background), and one Scott Ritter (former nukular inspector sahib?) all keep saying "Iran is winning since it is still surviving and make things unmanageable for others both militarily and oil supplies through the hormuz and possibly red sea routes". These people seem to have gained a lot of following during the Ukraine war for "correct/realistic" predictions. What do BRF "experts" think ?

A different angle from Bharat perspective: mullah-rabbi-padre conflicts playing out in west asia. Which, BTW, is where all of abrahamism started (and seems like could end there).

- In my opinion padre is too far away geographically from continental Asia to be directly able to wrest control of Iran (~100 mn population), at the most they could dent Iran by air and sea strikes till munitions run out.

- While we have used rabbi as a partner, they are too small (~7 million) and too dependent on padre and desalination plants. Effectively, rabbi is/was padre's main strike package in west asia but they seem to be nearing exhaustion too.

- at the same time, rabbi has used intelligence agencies to apparently make padre acquiesce to their goals...i can't help but think Apestein was a part of that same blackmail/intelligence network

- mullahs on both sides (across the strait and across shia/sunni divide) are getting hammered one way or the other. Iran people have mostly lost faith in abrahamism, and GCC arabs care more about their lavish lifestyles and having foreign hired guns to run their countries.

- For Bharat, other than the fuel disruptions, this seems another lucky break in accelerating return of Bharat because mullah-padre-rabbi are busy trying to destroy each other.

- How best should Bharat play this ? I'd say: Double down on indigenous clean energy. "Support" all three combatants to the point of exhaustion, since none of them is strong enough to force us to "choose a side" other than our own side. Make the combatants more dependent on us (food, security, meds etc). Recall Indian expats from GCC and integrate them in Bharat economy (will have much higher impact than getting remittances). Ditch petrodollar, strengthen BRICS (Bharat is the chair this year). Anything else ?

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 23 Mar 2026 01:36

FWIW: My comments for the above. and some reality check, (IMO) including nitpicks

1) Leadership losses in Iran — some what exaggerated
My Iranian friends say Iran’s system is redundant. Even major shocks historically (e.g., assassinations) have not collapsed the state.

2) “Running out of targets” — some what oversimplified
Air campaigns rarely “run out” of targets in that way.
Underground infrastructure complicates things, but doesn’t make it immune.
“Diminishing returns” can happen—but it’s not evidence of failure.

3) Damage to GCC and Israel — caution - unverified / likely overstated
(In absence of broad confirmation, I treat some as exaggerated)

4) “Iran is winning because it survives” — valid in a sense that in a classic asymmetric warfare if it survives and imposes cost → it’s “winning”

But: Survival ≠ strategic victory and long-term degradation (economy, infrastructure, isolation), of course matters

5) Reducing geopolitics to “mullah vs rabbi vs padre”: Ignores nationalism, state interests, economics.
6) Russia–China “considerable help” — nuanced reality
Neither is likely to fully back Iran in a direct war with the U.S.

But India (Bharat) strategy — makes sense

Energy diversification (clean + nuclear + strategic reserves)

Strategic autonomy (not picking rigid sides)

Supply chain leverage (food, pharma, services)

Also these align with India’s long-term policy anyway.

Some caution/ risky ideas:

“Support all sides quietly”
Dangerous—if too overt (India traditionally avoids this kind of multi-side manipulation)

“Recall all GCC expats”

Remittances from Gulf (~$40–50B/year) are economically significant - sudden return would stress domestic job markets

“Ditch petrodollar quickly”
Not realistically feasible in near term, IMO

A more realistic playbook:, IMO:

Maintain ties with:
Iran (connectivity, Chabahar)
Israel (defense, tech)
United States (strategic partnership, Manage Trump wisely )
Gulf states (energy + diaspora)

Avoid direct entanglement
Focus on economic + technological resilience
Quiet diplomacy instead of overt positioning

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 23 Mar 2026 21:03

Q: Iran's foreign ministry says you're not telling the truth when it comes to productive conversations to end the war

TRUMP:

Well, they're gonna have to get themselves better public relations people. We've had very strong talks. Mr Witkoff and Kushner had them. They went perfectly.

Did Trump just concede defeat from Iran?

Trump says the Strait of Hormuz will be likely jointly controlled by him and the next Ayatollah of Iran.

Major statement indirectly claiming there will be no regime change in Iran.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 23 Mar 2026 21:16

^^^ U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday (March 23, 2026) the ‌U.S. has had good and ⁠productive conversations with Iran and he will order the ‌military to postpone any military strikes ‌against Iranian power ‌plants ⁠and energy infrastructure for ⁠five days^^^Trump sees 'regime change' in surprise Iran talks

Iran media Press TV reported there was no contact for talks with the US, whether direct or indirect
After Trump's No-Strike Decision, Iran Media Bursts Out Laughing At HimI

<video>Trump: "Tomorrow morning, we were expected to blow up their largest electric generating plants that cost over $10 billion to build. One shot. It's gone. It collapses. Why would they want that? So they called. I didn't call. They called. They want to make a deal."

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 23 Mar 2026 22:13

With several levels of Iranian leadership decapitated, who is the they/them he is referring to?
Assuming they/them did call, what authority and control do they/them have in Iran to hold up whatever is agreed?

He is just bs ing to make some quick moolah as the markets swing up and down with such news and buy time until the ships with boots arrive in the region.

williams · Post by **williams** » 23 Mar 2026 23:05

Cyrano wrote: ↑23 Mar 2026 22:13 With several levels of Iranian leadership decapitated, who is the they/them he is referring to?
Assuming they/them did call, what authority and control do they/them have in Iran to hold up whatever is agreed?

He is just bs ing to make some quick moolah as the markets swing up and down with such news and buy time until the ships with boots arrive in the region.

Exactly it could be a ruse to bring on more ground troops to take over the islands and shores of Hormuz. Is it possible to bring a couple of divisions to the region in five days? And can that give them enough fire power to get a foot hold in the strait? There is a lot of analyst saying it is not possible even then. The current MEUs on the way cannot do much unless it is followed up by more solid ground troops.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 23 Mar 2026 23:25

Israel, American media quoting sources reporting US, Iran touch via Pakistan, Egypt, Turkiye, Iran media quoting sources dismissing any direct contact with Americans for talks, reject Trump's talk claims.
(At this point, no one knows exactly what is happening nor what Trump is saying or doing as war enters the 4th week & energy prices becomes a major issue globally.)

No negotiations have been held with the US, Iran Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf says. His name has been 'leaked' in Western media as the 'Top Leader' US side has been engaging.

MB Ghalibaf
@mb_ghalibaf
2/ No negotiations have been held with the US, and fakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 23 Mar 2026 23:28

Pakistan stepping into a mediation role in US-Iran talks later this week!.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 24 Mar 2026 03:01

xpost:

A_Gupta wrote: ↑23 Mar 2026 18:29 Bloomberg reporting (summarized by other outlets) states the U.S. lost 16 military aircraft during the Iran campaign, but not 16 fighter jets. Losses included a mix of aircraft types, and only some were fighter jets (e.g., F‑15E, F‑35 incidents).

Firstpost
Reported the U.S. has lost 16 military aircraft in the Iran war.
Breakdown:
12 MQ‑9 Reaper drones
4 crewed aircraft:
Three F‑15s (friendly fire by Kuwait)
One KC‑135 tanker (refueling accident)
Loss figures attributed to Bloomberg.

All detailed reporting on U.S. aircraft losses—such as the widely cited figure of 16 U.S. aircraft lost—comes from:
Bloomberg
Firstpost
Zee News
South China Morning Post
Times of India

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 24 Mar 2026 03:10

During his address on West Asia conflict, PM Narendra Modi tells parliaments that India imports from 41 nations and has diversified sources in recent years.
Energy imports span 41 countries, up from 27: PM Modi hails diversifying sources in Lok Sabha.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke in the Lok Sabha today on the Middle East conflict and the challenges it has created for India
A Covid Reminder In PM Modi's Rundown Of Middle East War Impact On India

EAM Jaishankar speaks with US' secretary Rubio on West Asia conflict

Had a detailed telecon this evening with US @SecRubio Our discussions focused on the West Asia conflict and its impact on the international economy. We particularly spoke about energy security concerns. Agreed to remain in touch.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 24 Mar 2026 03:26

From: https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.co ... irect=true

BREAKING. Thirty-six hours ago President Donald Trump said “obliterate.” This morning he said “productive conversations.” The question every trader, diplomat, and general is asking: what broke between Saturday night and Monday morning?

Six things broke simultaneously. Not one of them was Iranian.

First. The bill arrived. The Pentagon requested over $200 billion in supplemental funding. The war cost $11.3 billion in six days, $16.5 billion in twelve. At $1.38 billion per day and accelerating, congressional resistance to the supplemental is real. The money that was supposed to fund “days not weeks” now needs a vote that may not pass.

Second. The Fed killed the rate-cut thesis. On March 18, the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.5 to 3.75 percent and revised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 2.7 percent from 2.4, citing the Iran war energy shock. The dot plot shows one cut in all of 2026, down from two. Every basis point of delayed easing is pain for housing, credit, and the Magnificent Seven. The war that was supposed to demonstrate strength is demonstrating inflation.

Third. The allies revolted politely. Twenty-two countries signed up to coordinate on Hormuz. Zero committed a warship during combat. Japan is releasing strategic reserves. South Korea’s Kospi has fallen 12 percent. Europe’s gas surged 35 percent after Qatar’s LNG was knocked offline & declared force majeure up to 5 years. Trump called NATO “cowards” and got a press release. The coalition of the willing is a coalition of the waiting.

Fourth. TSMC sent the signal. Taiwan imports nearly 97 percent of its energy. Its LNG reserves cover 11 days. Qatar supplies a third of global helium, which TSMC needs for chip fabrication. The helium is bottled behind a closed strait. Every Nvidia GPU, every Apple chip, every AI cluster depends on a fab in Hsinchu counting its gas in single-digit days. The Magnificent Seven have shed hundreds of billions as energy rotation crushes tech.

Fifth. Birol named the damage. The IEA chief told Australia this morning that 40 energy assets across nine countries are severely damaged, global oil supply has fallen 11 million barrels per day, the crisis exceeds both 1970s shocks combined, and no country is immune. He named fertilisers and helium as interrupted flows. The man who runs global energy security called the war Trump started the worst energy crisis in modern history.

Sixth. The midterms. Gas prices are up 93 cents per gallon. Sixty-six percent of Americans call this a war of choice. Sixty percent disapprove. Fifty-seven percent say it is going badly. The numbers that matter in Washington are not barrels per day. They are approval ratings in swing states where voters fill their tanks every Tuesday.

Six pressures. One post. President Trump did not discover diplomacy. He discovered arithmetic. The 48-hour ultimatum was a threat. The 5-day pause is a confession that the threat’s consequences were worse than its target. Destroying power plants would have sealed the strait permanently, triggered Ghalibaf’s promise to “irreversibly destroy” Gulf desalination and energy infrastructure, crashed TSMC’s supply chain, spiked inflation past 3 percent, and handed the midterms to the opposition on a platter of $7 gasoline.

The pause is real. The relief is not. The strait is still closed. The 40 assets are still damaged. The fertiliser is still blocked. The planting window is still closing. The five-day clock is already ticking.

The molecules do not negotiate. The molecules wait.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 24 Mar 2026 04:00

My guess is that these 5 day talks will fail, OM will get the troops to occupy an island or two, possibly with connivance of whoever is representing Iran, declare victory and spin it until midterms. Both sides will go at each other after a few months of R&R.
Meanwhile the world can go to hell or starve with high energy prices but who cares?!

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 24 Mar 2026 04:37

Meanwhile: From USA: "For privacy reasons, we cannot comment on cases involving U.S. citizens, US embassy on arrest of 2 US nationals for flying a drone near the Coast Guard Headquarters in Kochi"

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 24 Mar 2026 04:51

IRGC issued a stark warning today, broadcast on state television and widely shared online, outlining what it frames as its rules of engagement or red lines in the ongoing conflict with the U.S. and Israel.

“You struck our hospitals, we did not do the same. You struck our emergency centers, we did not do the same. You struck our schools, we did not do the same. But if you strike electricity, we will strike electricity.”

This is positioned as a formal escalation baseline: Iran claims it has exercised restraint by not retaliating against civilian infrastructure hits (hospitals, emergency/relief centers, schools) despite reported damage (e.g., hundreds of health facilities, schools, and Red Crescent sites affected in Tehran province per state reports).

However, targeting electricity/power grids crosses a critical threshold, prompting reciprocal strikes on power infrastructure, potentially across the region, including facilities supplying U.S. bases, Gulf states, Israel, or shared economic/energy assets.

The IRGC described attacks on electricity as “inhumane” due to cascading effects on humanitarian services (hospitals, water/desalination plants, emergency systems, etc.), especially in desert climates reliant on power for water, cooling, and medical support.

This directly responds to President Trump’s threats (and partial postponement): He had issued a 48-hour ultimatum for full Strait of Hormuz reopening or face strikes on Iranian power plants/energy sites, now delayed five days amid claimed indirect talks.

Iran vows retaliation would be proportional and immediate.

williams · Post by **williams** » 24 Mar 2026 05:12

Cyrano wrote: ↑24 Mar 2026 04:00 My guess is that these 5 day talks will fail, OM will get the troops to occupy an island or two, possibly with connivance of whoever is representing Iran, declare victory and spin it until midterms. Both sides will go at each other after a few months of R&R.
Meanwhile the world can go to hell or starve with high energy prices but who cares?!

Occupying is one thing, holding and having a safe supply logistics bridge is another thing. Iran is not Afghanistan, they have some beef. They will make it bloody. Midterms is already a goner and it is for the Democrats to lose. Too many clown demonstration that woke up independents and young voters. I think this is going to be one of those classic TACOs. Next stop Cuba!

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 24 Mar 2026 09:35

Meanwhile:
Miller: What President Trump is doing is a national miracle that will be studied not only for generations but for centuries to come.

Trump: Kash, see if you can top that.

Patel: Mr. President, thank you for delivering the safest country on God's green Earth

Link: <video>

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 24 Mar 2026 11:07

Pentagon official Elbridge Colby in Delhi today.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 24 Mar 2026 11:10

-4th week continues with hopes on peace, preparations for the worst
-FT says Munir-Trump spoke; Pakistan seen as mediator
-Strikes in Iran, Lebanon, Israel
-Alarms in Bahrain, interceptions in Kuwait
-Iran scientist Dr. Saeed Shamaqadari killed

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 24 Mar 2026 11:38

williams wrote: ↑24 Mar 2026 05:12
Cyrano wrote: ↑24 Mar 2026 04:00 My guess is that these 5 day talks will fail, OM will get the troops to occupy an island or two, possibly with connivance of whoever is representing Iran, declare victory and spin it until midterms. Both sides will go at each other after a few months of R&R.
Meanwhile the world can go to hell or starve with high energy prices but who cares?!
Occupying is one thing, holding and having a safe supply logistics bridge is another thing. Iran is not Afghanistan, they have some beef. They will make it bloody. Midterms is already a goner and it is for the Democrats to lose. Too many clown demonstration that woke up independents and young voters. I think this is going to be one of those classic TACOs. Next stop Cuba!

I'm thinking match fixing to occupy an island or two claim victory with min casualties

uddu · Post by **uddu** » 24 Mar 2026 12:56

https://x.com/sidhant/status/2036112225417728426
Hormuz will be 'jointly controlled' by 'me & the next Ayatollah' says Trump

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 24 Mar 2026 13:04

Freudian slip.

uddu · Post by **uddu** » 24 Mar 2026 14:49

@the_fauxy
𝗕𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗞𝗜𝗡𝗚: 𝗜𝗿𝗮𝗻 𝗚𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗨𝗦 𝟱 𝗗𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗚𝗲𝘁 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘆 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗪𝗮𝗿 𝗔𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 24 Mar 2026 21:53

Narendra Modi on X: (Recent)

Received a call from President Trump and had a useful exchange of views on the situation in West Asia. India supports de-escalation and restoration of peace at the earliest. Ensuring that the Strait of Hormuz remains open, secure and accessible is essential for the whole world. We agreed to stay in touch regarding efforts towards peace and stability.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 24 Mar 2026 21:59

No surprise Congress said that in spite of India’s undoubted military successes in Operation Sindoor, Pakistan’s diplomatic engagement and narrative management has been “markedly superior to that of the Modi government”

"Rebuff to ‘self-styled Vishwaguru’, says Congress, on reports of Pakistan mediating in West Asia"

Trump etc are all over the US (and Pak) Media :
JD Vance could lead Iran peace talks for US side in Pakistan if negotiations go ahead - sources

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 24 Mar 2026 22:01

Meanwhile: Expert Analysis! (You are Welcome!)

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 25 Mar 2026 00:11

Meanwhile: US Vice President JD Vance departs for Pakistan, where he will meet Iranian officials.

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 25 Mar 2026 00:14

I dont want to sound pick me - but how come Pak is always in such situations to host mediation meetings - why cant it be India?

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 25 Mar 2026 00:38

^^^ Trump reposts Pakistan PM Sharif's offer of mediation on Truth Social.

(FT reported Trump Munir call on West Asia War over the weekend)

Remember Trump said *many* times Munir said Tump saved 35 million people in IndiaxPak War too,

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 25 Mar 2026 02:58

Amber G. wrote: ↑24 Mar 2026 21:59 No surprise Congress said that in spite of India’s undoubted military successes in Operation Sindoor, Pakistan’s diplomatic engagement and narrative management has been “markedly superior to that of the Modi government”
"Rebuff to ‘self-styled Vishwaguru’, says Congress, on reports of Pakistan mediating in West Asia"

Trump etc are all over the US (and Pak) Media :
JD Vance could lead Iran peace talks for US side in Pakistan if negotiations go ahead - sources

Most idiotic statement. So we should cry a river now?

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 25 Mar 2026 03:01

V_Raman wrote: ↑25 Mar 2026 00:14 I dont want to sound pick me - but how come Pak is always in such situations to host mediation meetings - why cant it be India?

It's like asking how come hookers get all the fun?!

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 25 Mar 2026 04:11

The 82nd airborne is reported to be in the air to the region and the Marine expeditionary unit is at the doors. One way or the other the stage for the jugular is set. Either there will be an acceptable deal by Friday or the jugular kill switch would be activated. Destroy all power, water, energy infrastructure. Secure all the islands to ensure FON. It would be game over within about two weeks. There are risks, mostly in the aftermath and a destabilized Iran, if the IRGC chooses to fight. The IRGC will continue its terror activities on the neighborhood, taking down its property and a premium on oil prices for the foreseeable future. On the US and Israel end, they will try to get to the enriched Uranium stockpile and continue the air attacks on any nuclear/missile infrastructure. This is the worst case scenario. Most likely some type of an acceptable government will takeover. Of course no one will accept overt defeat regardless of realities.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 25 Mar 2026 04:13

“Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, has emerged as the key interlocutor between the United States and Iran, with Egypt and Turkey encouraging the Iranians to engage constructively, the officials added. Field Marshal Munir is believed to maintain close ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, putting him in a position to pass messages between the warring sides, they said.” - NY Times

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 25 Mar 2026 05:26

Guys, it's not our circus, it's going to be a shit show. OM and Failed Marshal aren't no Bonnie and Clyde. Have some popcorn ready.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 25 Mar 2026 05:45

Two proverbs:
पण्डितोऽपि वरं शत्रुः न मूर्खो हितकारकः। (foolish friends are dangerous too...more than wise enemy )
and
युद्धे सर्वे विनश्यन्ति। (In war, all are diminished (or destroyed)...
With characters like DT and Munir ... popcorn or not ,, all of us (India too) have to be carful and remain safe,.. guys with nukes among creepy friends or neighbors.. India should be on *full* guard

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 25 Mar 2026 07:47

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9wqrdkx8ppo
Oil at $150 will trigger global recession, says boss of financial giant BlackRock
Simon Jack, and Nick Edser, 24/3/2026
If the price of oil hits $150 a barrel it will trigger a global recession, the boss of US financial giant BlackRock has told the BBC.
Larry Fink, who leads the world's largest asset manager, said if Iran "remains a threat" and oil prices stay high it will have "profound implications" for the world economy.
In a wide-ranging exclusive interview, he also denied there was an AI bubble, although he said the new technology meant too many people were pursuing university degrees and not enough doing technical training.
BlackRock is a financial colossus, controlling assets worth $14 trillion (£10.5tn), and is one of the biggest investors in many of the world's largest companies.
Its size and spread gives Fink - who is one of the eight co-founders of the business, which started in 1988 - a unique insight into the health of the global economy.
The conflict in the Middle East has triggered wild moves on financial markets as people try to assess what will happen to energy costs.
For Fink, it is too early to determine the ultimate scale and outcome of the conflict, but he believes it will be one of two extreme scenarios.
In one, if the conflict is settled and Iran becomes a country that can be accepted again by the international community then the price of oil could fall back to below where it stood before the war.
But if not, he says, then there could be "years of above $100, closer to $150 oil, which has profound implications in the economy" and an outcome of "a probably stark and steep recession".
The surge in energy costs has led to some in the UK to argue that it should be focusing more on producing its own oil and gas.
On Tuesday, industry body Offshore Energies UK said that without more domestic production, the country risks becoming reliant on imports "at a time of rising global instability".
Fink says countries need to be pragmatic about their energy mix by using all sources available to them, but providing cheap energy is key to driving growth and raising living standards.
"Rising energy prices is a very regressive tax. It affects the poor more than the wealthy."
While the UK already has some solar and wind power and hydrocarbons, if oil prices were to rise to $150 for three or four years, "you would have so many countries moving so rapidly towards solar and maybe even wind".
Countries should not depend on just one source, he says.
"Use what you have unquestionably, but also aggressively move towards alternative sources too."
.....
Gautam

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 25 Mar 2026 08:02

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... fallout-be
How high could oil prices go – and what might the global economic fallout be?
Crude prices could surpass their 2008 record, with potentially dire effects for consumers and businesses
Richard Partington, Senior economics correspondent, Mon 9 Mar 2026
Fears over the global economy have been stoked by the oil price soaring past $100 a barrel as a result of the US-Israel war with Iran.
Economists say the increasing likelihood of a prolonged conflict in the vital energy exporting region could have serious consequences for living standards around the world amid the threat of a renewed inflation shock.
Against a highly uncertain backdrop, financial markets are under heavy selling pressure, consumers are facing rising prices, central banks could be forced to increase borrowing costs and governments will come under pressure to support households and businesses.
How high could oil prices go?
Oil prices passed $119 a barrel on Monday, the highest level since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Analysts say the continued closure of the strait of Hormuz could drive the price close to $150 a barrel, above the record high of $145.29 set in July 2008.
The narrow shipping route on Iran’s southern border carries a fifth of global seaborne crude oil and liquified natural gas, and a third of the most widely used fertiliser.
Goldman Sachs has said Iran’s effective blockade of the waterway has had an impact 17 times larger than the peak April 2022 hit to Russian oil production after the Ukraine invasion, which pushed the oil price to about $139 a barrel.
What happens next hinges on how long the strait is effectively closed and the ability to divert exports. Saudi Arabia has begun routing crude to its Red Sea ports, but most exporters are trapped behind bottlenecks. Gulf oil and gas storage facilities are reaching their limits as a result, meaning large oilfields may need to be shut down. Returning production to previous levels would take time, adding further to the energy crisis.
Analysts say a short, sharp conflict that allowed Hormuz exports to resume would help to cool energy prices. Prolonged uncertainty could linger, however, over the safety of the waterway. Capital Economics has said a longer-lasting conflict could keep the oil price above $100 a barrel throughout this year.
......
Gautam

uddu · Post by **uddu** » 25 Mar 2026 09:51

After Pakistan’s Mediation Offer, IRGC Stops Islamabad-Bound Ship Amid US-Iran Tensions
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) halted an Islamabad-bound vessel amid escalating US-Iran tensions, even as Pakistan stepped in with a mediation offer.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 25 Mar 2026 10:23

ShauryaT wrote: ↑25 Mar 2026 04:13 “Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, has emerged as the key interlocutor between the United States and Iran, with Egypt and Turkey encouraging the Iranians to engage constructively, the officials added. Field Marshal Munir is believed to maintain close ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, putting him in a position to pass messages between the warring sides, they said.” - NY Times

1971 redux.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 25 Mar 2026 11:00

All — the situation is becoming increasingly serious from a nuclear perspective, given the involvement of the U.S., Israel, Iran, and now Pakistan. Not all actors here can be assumed to behave in strictly rational ways, which makes the risks harder to bound. I’d value thoughts from experts in this group.

In that context, To start with I’m sharing/xposting something I wrote some time ago — still relevant, perhaps even more so now (especially with Arak reactors and enriched uranium stockpiles, and hits on Israel nuclear center back in the news):

Some background -

The Iran Nuclear Deal Was a Masterclass in Physics-Based Diplomacy — And We’re Forgetting Why

The 2015 Iran nuclear agreement — formally the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — is often discussed politically, but its most impressive feature was actually technical. Much of the critical work was done by two physicists: Ernest Moniz (U.S. Secretary of Energy, MIT physicist) and Ali Akbar Salehi (head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, also MIT-trained). When negotiations stalled politically, the technical discussions between them often produced workable solutions grounded in nuclear engineering and fuel-cycle physics.

One of the most elegant examples was the redesign of the Arak heavy-water reactor (the IR-40). In its original form, the reactor could have produced on the order of ~8–10 kg of plutonium per year — roughly the quantity needed for one weapon annually if separated. Rather than dismantle the reactor (which Iran would not accept), the core was redesigned: power reduced, low-enriched uranium fuel introduced, lattice geometry changed, and spent fuel committed to export. The result was a research-type reactor producing roughly ~1 kg of plutonium per year and with far less suitable isotopic composition for weapons. This was not a political ban — it was a reactor-physics solution.

The enrichment constraints at Natanz were similarly technical. Iran retained a limited enrichment program but agreed to operate about 5,000 first-generation centrifuges and cap enrichment at ~3.67%. More importantly, the stockpile of enriched uranium was limited to about 300 kg of UF₆. Those parameters together determined the so-called “breakout time,” extending it to roughly a year. Another subtle technical measure was material-form management: converting enriched uranium into reactor fuel (UO₂ pellets and assemblies) makes rapid reconversion into centrifuge feedstock much slower and more visible.

A key point often misunderstood in public debate concerns enrichment levels. Many research reactors worldwide use fuel enriched up to ~20% U-235 (the conventional upper bound for low-enriched uranium). From a separative-work perspective, however, once uranium is enriched to ~20%, much of the enrichment work toward weapons-grade material has already been completed. At 60% enrichment the remaining work to reach ~90% weapons-grade is relatively small. This is why stockpiles of 60% material are considered proliferation-sensitive even when they remain under IAEA monitoring.

The JCPOA addressed these physics realities through a system approach: limits on centrifuge capacity, caps on enrichment level, strict stockpile limits, reactor redesign, and continuous monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Rather than eliminating Iran’s nuclear program, the agreement bounded the parameters of the fuel cycle so that any move toward weapons material would take time and be detectable.

Today the technical landscape looks different. Iran has enriched uranium up to 60% and expanded advanced centrifuge deployment. While much of this material is still monitored by the IAEA, the physics is straightforward: the closer enrichment approaches weapons-grade, the shorter the time required to reach it if a political decision were made. The original architecture of the JCPOA was designed precisely to prevent that situation.

Unfortunately, the public conversation in recent years — particularly during Donald Trump’s presidency and afterward — has often reduced a complex nuclear-engineering problem to slogans about “breakout in weeks” or blanket claims that any enrichment implies weapons intent. Those claims overlook the careful physics and verification structure that Moniz, Salehi, and their teams constructed. The agreement was far from perfect, but from a technical standpoint it remains one of the clearest examples of science-based diplomacy, where reactor physics, fuel-cycle engineering, and safeguards verification were used to manage proliferation risk rather than simply argue about intentions.

In short, the JCPOA worked not because it trusted anyone’s motives, but because it constrained the underlying physics.
Amber G.