West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

[Amber G.]

x posting some items ..

^^^. Former UK Ambassador drops a massive truth bomb: Iran was observing the 2015 nuclear deal to the letter. Trump sabotaged it purely on Israeli advice, and the claims that Iran was cheating are absolute lies debunked by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

<video>

Gemini 3:

The "Cheating" Debate: Contextual Perspectives

Perspective - Argument on "Cheating"

Russia & China - View Iran's nuclear escalations as legal "remedial measures" allowed under the JCPOA when other parties fail to meet their commitments.

IAEA & Western Allies - Have documented "technical violations," including stockpiling uranium beyond limits and failing to explain traces at undeclared sites.

Israeli Intelligence - Claims archived documents prove Iran never intended to stop its weapons program and merely "lied" about its past activities.

Critics of the Deal - Argue the deal's lack of oversight on ballistic missiles and temporary "sunset clauses" allowed Iran to prepare for future weaponization without technically breaking the rules.

for context recent newsL : From reliable news sources:

Iranian missiles struck southern Israel, especially around the Dimona area, near its main nuclear research center — the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center. Dozens of civilians were injured in those strikes.

Iran also reported that its Natanz nuclear facility, Iran’s principal uranium enrichment site, was hit in a strike. Israeli and U.S. forces were widely reported to have targeted Natanz earlier in the conflict.


For bacground: Natanz (Iran)

Iran’s main uranium enrichment facility southeast of Tehran — where uranium is processed and enriched. Reports from today’s fighting and earlier strikes say Natanz has been struck, damaging buildings but not causing a reported nuclear release.
(Natanz has been repeatedly targeted in this conflict )

Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center (Israel)

This is Israel’s primary nuclear research site near Dimona. Iranian missiles hit areas near this facility today, marking a notable escalation because it’s tied to Israeli strategic infrastructure.

post :viewtopic.php?p=2675508#p2675508
And last:

This excellent New York Times article by David E. Sanger (2015), details the technical partnership between Ernest Moniz and Ali Akbar Salehi which I talked about. A must read.
"Negotiators in Iran Talks Argue Physics Behind Politics"

Key Details:
The "MIT Connection": The article highlights the unique dynamic between the two men. Ernest Moniz (then U.S. Secretary of Energy) was a former MIT physics professor, and Ali Akbar Salehi (head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization) earned his PhD in nuclear engineering from MIT in the 1970s. This shared background allowed them to solve technical obstacles that had stalled diplomats for years.

Physics as a Bridge - While political negotiators like John Kerry and Javad Zarif hit walls over "red lines," Moniz and Salehi were often seen off to the side, scribbling formulas and "arguing physics." This allowed them to find creative engineering solutions to political demands, such as how to repurpose centrifuges or modify the Arak heavy-water reactor so it could not produce weapons-grade plutonium.

Another article I remember and noted in BRF by me around the same time was some of the worlds top scientists (including Nobel laureates and veteran arms-control experts) praised the deal as a masterpiece of technical verification. Knowing Salehi and Moniz, and physics there, I agree that that praise was justified.

The deal was :
"

more innovative and stringent constraints than any previously negotiated nonproliferation framework." It . moved the issue from "trust" to "verifiable physics,,,such as monitoring the entire uranium supply chain for 25 years.

Aa said before - technical Solutions:

-Arak Reactor: Redesigning the core so it produced significantly less plutonium and requiring the original core to be filled with concrete.
-Fordow Facility: Converting a fortified underground enrichment site into a "nuclear, physics, and technology center" for stable isotope production.
-Breakout Time: Using enrichment math to ensure that even if Iran cheated, it would take at least one year to gather enough material for a single weapon, giving the world time to react.

In the context of the 2026 conflict I am following Sanger's reporting (IMO, often the "gold standard" because he also maintains deep sources within the Intelligence Community and the Department of War.). For those who are worshipping Trump, let me say I am aware that his reporting has triggered a direct response from the White House to day and Trump mocked him on Truth Social, calling him a "failed analyst"

****

I put these here for easy to review..

[Cyrano]

Thanks for this informative post. Is Saleji still alive?

[Amber G.]

Thanks for this informative post. Is Saleji still alive?

Edited ; More info and links.
Salehiji , while officially retired from the top nuclear post, has been vocal! (Slightly surprised)

Was able to easily check - before the war intensified, Salehi shifted his focus to Quantum Technology, leading Iran's to develop "ultramodern" quantum communications.

From all the indications, he is still acting as a senior statesman and advisor during the current 2026 crisis. Voice of Optimism . In a February 4, 2026 (Link: interview with ISNA), Salehi expressed a rare moment of optimism about "looming nuclear negotiations" but he warned of "mischief" from 'foreign actors' ( Trump & Bibi)

In Response to 2026 Strikes- after the attacks on Natanz and Bushehr, Salehi was mad - calls for compensation and international accountability, labeling the strikes on civilian infrastructure as "ecocide. (Tehran papers) Despite the war, the "MIT connection" is still mentioned among the circle but have no idea if Moniz and he had any recent contact.

[Amber G.]

Meanwhile checking on - Ernest Moniz (Former U.S. Energy Secretary)

Moniz is currently serving as a frequent media analyst and advisor, focusing on the global energy crisis and nuclear escalation resulting from the 2026 strikes.

In March 2026, Moniz has appeared on CNN, Bloomberg TV, and ABC News to discuss the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure and the strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

He recently told the Financial Times that the world cannot easily replace the "10 million barrels a day" potentially lost due to the conflict, warning that "oil volatility will persist without new supply."

His role at the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), Moniz has issued statements urging both the U.S. and Russia to maintain the limits of the New START treaty (which expired in February 2026) to prevent a wider "nuclear anarchy."

In July 2025, he co-authored a piece in Science titled "Eighty years at the nuclear brink," reflecting on the fragility of global arms control.

And apart from working on global nuclear risk reduction - he is involved in "Integrated Carbon Accounting" (Not making it up .. (EFI Foundation -)

[A_Gupta]

What will US-Iran talks accomplish unless the US ensures Israel is a party to whatever agreement is reached?

[A_Gupta]

Reports one hour old as I type this suggest most of the talk of negotiations, Pakistan, etc., are not correct. This includes for the US, London, Israel and Dubai. It could be the fog of war, intensified by the fog of Trump.

[uddu]

Reports one hour old as I type this suggest most of the talk of negotiations, Pakistan, etc., are not correct. This includes for the US, London, Israel and Dubai. It could be the fog of war, intensified by the fog of Trump.

This seems to be Trump suggestions and attempt by Trump. Iranians seems not keen. They stopped one tanker going to Pakistan to show their displeasure.
What i assume is that, After NaMo made the attempt to negotiate and held talks with all the Gulf states and Iran, Americans literally gate crashed the talks and pushed their agenda. Probably there was certain things that we could not agree with the U.S or was contrary to what the Gulf states and Iranians wanted and as usual Trump wanting to keep the focus to himself must have pushed for discussion in Pakistan his piddi to have the upper hand, which made the Iranians angry.

[Rakesh]

The butt hurt for the MUTUs on social media and BRF must be quite painful

VIDEO: https://x.com/FurkanGozukara/status/203 ... 70590?s=20 ---> The American empire is crumbling. India just completely ignored US sanctions and bought 5 million barrels of Iranian oil, sending their ships straight through the Strait of Hormuz. The multipolar world is here and Washington has zero control over it.

https://x.com/cagujjubhai/status/203651 ... 90362?s=20 ---> Small correction: India didn't "ignore" sanctions. India negotiated its way through. There's a massive difference between defiance and strategic autonomy. India's ships were classified as "friendly nation" vessels by Iran. That doesn't happen by accident. That happens because India maintained relationships with BOTH sides while everyone else picked a team. The real story isn't that "America is crumbling." The real story is that India has built enough economic and diplomatic leverage to secure its energy supply without asking anyone's permission. 5 million barrels. Through the most contested waterway on earth. While every other buyer was scrambling. That's not rebellion. That's risk management at a civilizational scale.

[uddu]

So Modi's Bharat got to reverse Italian Maino's 2012 restrictions? Now how can Congress claim to be on Iranians side when It was them who stopped buying oil from Iran and it is Modi who reversed that decision? This has massive political implications for the Congress if BJP goes on the offensive especially in poll bound states like Keralam. There the Congress narrative was that they are with Iranians and Modi is against them. Hence Modi is against Muslims. This is the one and only poll strategy of Congress in Keralam. NaMo torpedoed it.

The butt hurt for the MUTUs on social media and BRF must be quite painful

VIDEO: https://x.com/FurkanGozukara/status/203 ... 70590?s=20 ---> The American empire is crumbling. India just completely ignored US sanctions and bought 5 million barrels of Iranian oil, sending their ships straight through the Strait of Hormuz. The multipolar world is here and Washington has zero control over it.

https://x.com/cagujjubhai/status/203651 ... 90362?s=20 ---> Small correction: India didn't "ignore" sanctions. India negotiated its way through. There's a massive difference between defiance and strategic autonomy. India's ships were classified as "friendly nation" vessels by Iran. That doesn't happen by accident. That happens because India maintained relationships with BOTH sides while everyone else picked a team. The real story isn't that "America is crumbling." The real story is that India has built enough economic and diplomatic leverage to secure its energy supply without asking anyone's permission. 5 million barrels. Through the most contested waterway on earth. While every other buyer was scrambling. That's not rebellion. That's risk management at a civilizational scale.

[Rakesh]

https://x.com/idreesali114/status/20365 ... 66006?s=20 ---> U.S. President Donald Trump says Iran gave a significant prize. When asked by reporters what he was talking about, he said it was related to Strait of Hormuz.

https://x.com/AliVaez/status/2036516346784038942?s=20 --->

[Rakesh]

Iran attacks US aircraft carrier
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... an-hormuz/
25 March 2026

[Amber G.]

Reports one hour old as I type this suggest most of the talk of negotiations, Pakistan, etc., are not correct. This includes for the US, London, Israel and Dubai. It could be the fog of war, intensified by the fog of Trump.

This seems to be Trump suggestions and attempt by Trump. Iranians seems not keen. They stopped one tanker going to Pakistan to show their displeasure.
What i assume is that, After NaMo made the attempt to negotiate and held talks with all the Gulf states and Iran, Americans literally gate crashed the talks and pushed their agenda. Probably there was certain things that we could not agree with the U.S or was contrary to what the Gulf states and Iranians wanted and as usual Trump wanting to keep the focus to himself must have pushed for discussion in Pakistan his piddi to have the upper hand, which made the Iranians angry.

Yes, Trump being Trump fog is intensified by the fog of Trump.. I also noticed Pak's tanker going to Pak being stopped...(IMO most dangerous part is Trump (along with experts like his sec of war) is quite clueless about real world and capable of fooled by Munir)

---- Links:
Iran authorities say they have turned back vessel Selen bound for Karachi, Pakistan since it did not have approval to pass Hormuz

[Amber G.]

Meanwhile it is morning in Washington DC, & Trump posted first comments on Iran.
Believes in 'great military achievement in Iran'


And "Resounding military triumph", White House Spox Karoline Leavitt claims on US situation in West Asia war; Points "meetings core military objectives".. etc.. now as I post..

[Amber G.]

xpost: ' Masterpiece use of word 'Dalal' by EAM!

Jaishankar On Pakistan Brokering US Iran Deal: 'India Is Not A Dalal Country Like Pakistan'
India has mocked Pakistan's attempt at mediation in the Middle East war, using the strongest of languages to refer to Islamabad as it seeks a role in global diplomacy. At an all-party meeting in Delhi today, Foreign Minister S Jaishankar derided Pakistan as a "dalal (broker) nation," sources said.

"India will not act as a middleman and dalal (broker) nation like Pakistan," a member present at the meeting recalled the minister as saying.

<youtube]k68J4xrGzp4[/youtube]>

[Amber G.]

FWIW Summary of some items in media - centered on claims that Vice President JD Vance is traveling to Pakistan this weekend for peace talks.
They argue that Iran has "veto power" over U.S. personnel, specifically rejecting negotiators like Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner due to a "deficit of trust" from previous failed talks that allegedly provided cover for military strikes. Vance is framed as a skeptic of Middle East intervention whom Iran views as more committed to ending the war. The U.S. is negotiating from a position of weakness driven by record-low approval ratings and economic strain.Multiple credible news outlets provide significant support for several of these posts ( though some details remain unverified or contested:) Xinhua and Anadolu Agency confirm CNN reports that the White House is trying to arrange talks in Pakistan (or potentially Türkiye) this weekend, with JD Vance expected to travel.

However, sources express skepticism about whether the meeting will actually materialize. Reports from TRT World and The Deep Dive corroborate that Iran has signaled a preference for Vance over Witkoff and Kushner. They cite a "deficit of trust" following the launch of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, which occurred shortly after previous diplomatic efforts. Reports confirm the 82nd Airborne has indeed received deployment orders for the Middle East (Washington Post, CBS News). Additionally, The Times of Israel confirms ongoing Iranian missile barrages targeting Israeli infrastructure

Contradictions: While U.S. is complying with Iranian demands, President Trump stated that his entire team—including Rubio, Witkoff, and Kushner—remains involved. Furthermore, Iran’s Foreign Ministry has publicly denied that any direct negotiations are taking place, labeling such reports as "fake news.".

[drnayar]

FWIW Summary of some items in media - centered on claims that Vice President JD Vance is traveling to Pakistan this weekend for peace talks.
They argue that Iran has "veto power" over U.S. personnel, specifically rejecting negotiators like Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner due to a "deficit of trust" from previous failed talks that allegedly provided cover for military strikes. Vance is framed as a skeptic of Middle East intervention whom Iran views as more committed to ending the war. The U.S. is negotiating from a position of weakness driven by record-low approval ratings and economic strain.Multiple credible news outlets provide significant support for several of these posts ( though some details remain unverified or contested:) Xinhua and Anadolu Agency confirm CNN reports that the White House is trying to arrange talks in Pakistan (or potentially Türkiye) this weekend, with JD Vance expected to travel.

However, sources express skepticism about whether the meeting will actually materialize. Reports from TRT World and The Deep Dive corroborate that Iran has signaled a preference for Vance over Witkoff and Kushner. They cite a "deficit of trust" following the launch of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, which occurred shortly after previous diplomatic efforts. Reports confirm the 82nd Airborne has indeed received deployment orders for the Middle East (Washington Post, CBS News). Additionally, The Times of Israel confirms ongoing Iranian missile barrages targeting Israeli infrastructure

Contradictions: While U.S. is complying with Iranian demands, President Trump stated that his entire team—including Rubio, Witkoff, and Kushner—remains involved. Furthermore, Iran’s Foreign Ministry has publicly denied that any direct negotiations are taking place, labeling such reports as "fake news.".

US is known for conveniently bumping off "negotiators" once they get together in one place ..Who in his right mind would ever trust the US ?!! Iran will never negotiate with US or Israelis for that matter. Russia and China would only be too happy to provide Iranians tactical and covert support to keep the Americans bleeding.

the US has grabbed the tiger by the tail and now can’t let go.

I bet Trump hardly knows what he is doing

And Pakistans involvement is hilarious at best .. a Sunni state laying a table for a Shia one ?! Right

[A_Gupta]

Pakistan's involvement is life and death for it - if Saudi Arabia gets actively involved against Iran, then so must Pakistan - and then Pakistan internally goes up in flames. Pakistan's best bet is some kind of cessation of hostilities.

[bharathp]

so Pakistan with a history of providing bases to US, thinks it can be trusted by Iran?
and pakistan with a history of hiding bin laden, thinks it can be trusted by USA?

[williams]

Is the U.S. heading toward a point of no return in its conflict with Iran? In this high-stakes conversation, renowned political scientist Robert Pape breaks down the concept of the "escalation trap" and explains why the war initiated by Donald Trump may be spiraling beyond control.

My take:
1. Iran controls the strait of Hormuz. They have the leverage to ask for things that will help them survive against two stronger powers.
2. Israel has achieved what it wanted. It has dragged US into the escalation trap. Hence they are focusing on cleaning up southern Lebanon. They are running out of supplies and taking hits, but keeping the heat intact.
3. Trump admin needs a face saver to get out, but communicating that seems to be a problem. Taking over Hormuz by force is a very costly affair both in terms of domestic politics and military losses.
4. GCC will be happy if US can take over the strait of Hormuz without any damage to their infrastructure and influence.
5. Russia wants to keep the pot boiling.
6. China will be happy if US gets trapped as long as their oil supplies are not disrupted.
7. Rest of the world wants the US to get out and Iran to allow shipping across the strait.